Search results for: Corporate series feed

Authors: Samuel A. Phillips, Emmanuel A. Ayanlowo, Rasaki O. Olanrewaju, Olayode Fatoki

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This paper employs the Jeffrey's prior technique in the process of estimating the periodograms and frequency of sinusoidal model for unknown noisy time variants or oscillating events (data) in a Bayesian setting. The non-informative Jeffrey's prior was adopted for the posterior trigonometric function of the sinusoidal model such that Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) inference was used in carving-out the minimum variance needed to curb the invariance structure effect for unknown noisy time observational and repeated circular patterns. An average monthly oscillating temperature series measured in degree Celsius (0C) from 1901 to 2014 was subjected to the posterior solution of the unknown noisy events of the sinusoidal model via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It was not only deduced that two minutes period is required before completing a cycle of changing temperature from one particular degree Celsius to another but also that the sinusoidal model via the CRLB-Jeffrey's prior for unknown noisy events produced a miniature posterior Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) compare to a known noisy events.

Keywords: Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB), Jeffrey's prior, Sinusoidal, Maximum A Posteriori (MAP), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Periodograms.

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Authors: Ali A. Al-Jazaairry, Tahsin T. Sabbagh

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Presence of cavities in soil predictably induces ground deformation and changes in soil stress, which might influence adjacent existing pile foundations, though the effect of twin cavities on a nearby pile needs to be understood. This research is an attempt to identify the behaviour of piles subjected to axial load and embedded in cavitied clayey soil. A series of finite element modelling were conducted to investigate the performance of piled foundation located in such soils. The validity of the numerical simulation was evaluated by comparing it with available field test and alternative analytical model. The study involved many parameters such as twin cavities size, depth, spacing between cavities, and eccentricity of cavities from the pile axis on the pile performance subjected to axial load. The study involved many cases; in each case, a critical value has been found in which cavities’ presence has shown minimum impact on the behaviour of pile. Load-displacement relationships of the affecting parameters on the pile behaviour were presented to provide helpful information for designing piled foundation situated near twin underground cavities. It was concluded that the presence of the cavities within the soil mass reduces the ultimate capacity of pile. This reduction differs according to the size and location of the cavity.

Keywords: Axial load, clay, finite element, pile, twin cavities, ultimate capacity.

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Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

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For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C₃ and C₄ content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: Flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Osamu Igawa, Hiroshi Kouchiwa, Yuji Ito

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In recent years, a reconstruction project for sewer  pipelines has been progressing in Japan with the aim of renewing old  sewer culverts. However, it is difficult to secure a sufficient base area  for shafts in an urban area because many streets are narrow with a  complex layout. As a result, construction in such urban areas is  generally very demanding.  In urban areas, there is a strong requirement for a safe, reliable and  economical construction method that does not disturb the public’s  daily life and urban activities. With this in mind, we developed a new  construction method called the “shield switching type micro-tunneling  method,” which integrates the micro-tunneling method and shield  method.  In this method, pipeline is constructed first for sections that are  gently curved or straight using the economical micro-tunneling  method, and then the method is switched to the shield method for  sections with a sharp curve or a series of curves without establishing  an intermediate shaft.  This paper provides the information, features and construction  examples of this newly developed method.

 

Keywords: Micro-tunneling method, Secondary lining applied RC segment, Sharp curve, Shield method, Switching type.

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Authors: Eric S. Lee, Connie Bygrave, Jordan Mahar, Naina Garg, Suzanne Cottreau

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Marking exams is universally detested by lecturers. Final exams in many higher education courses often last 3.0 hrs. Do exams really need to be so long? Can we justifiably reduce the number of questions on them? Surprisingly few have researched these questions, arguably because of the complexity and difficulty of using traditional methods. To answer these questions empirically, we used a new approach based on three key elements: Use of an unusual variation of a true experimental design, equivalence hypothesis testing, and an expanded set of six psychometric criteria to be met by any shortened exam if it is to replace a current 3.0-hr exam (reliability, validity, justifiability, number of exam questions, correspondence, and equivalence). We compared student performance on each official 3.0-hr exam with that on five shortened exams having proportionately fewer questions (2.5, 2.0, 1.5, 1.0, and 0.5 hours) in a series of four experiments conducted in two classes in each of two finance courses (224 students in total). We found strong evidence that, in these courses, shortening of final exams to 2.0 hrs was warranted on all six psychometric criteria. Shortening these exams by one hour should result in a substantial one-third reduction in lecturer time and effort spent marking, lower student stress, and more time for students to prepare for other exams. Our approach provides a relatively simple, easy-to-use methodology that lecturers can use to examine the effect of shortening their own exams.

Keywords: Exam length, psychometric criteria, synthetic experimental designs, test length.

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Authors: Maad Kamal Al-Anni

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This study is about an algorithmic dependence of Artificial Neural Network on Multilayer Perceptron (MPL) pertaining to the classification and clustering presentations for Mobile Adhoc Network vulnerabilities. Moreover, mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is ubiquitous intelligent internetworking devices in which it has the ability to detect their environment using an autonomous system of mobile nodes that are connected via wireless links. Security affairs are the most important subject in MANET due to the easy penetrative scenarios occurred in such an auto configuration network. One of the powerful techniques used for inspecting the network packets is Intrusion Detection System (IDS); in this article, we are going to show the effectiveness of artificial neural networks used as a machine learning along with stochastic approach (information gain) to classify the malicious behaviors in simulated network with respect to different IDS techniques. The monitoring agent is responsible for detection inference engine, the audit data is collected from collecting agent by simulating the node attack and contrasted outputs with normal behaviors of the framework, whenever. In the event that there is any deviation from the ordinary behaviors then the monitoring agent is considered this event as an attack , in this article we are going to demonstrate the  signature-based IDS approach in a MANET by implementing the back propagation algorithm over ensemble-based Traffic Table (TT), thus the signature of malicious behaviors or undesirable activities are often significantly prognosticated and efficiently figured out, by increasing the parametric set-up of Back propagation algorithm during the experimental results which empirically shown its effectiveness  for the ratio of detection index up to 98.6 percentage. Consequently it is proved in empirical results in this article, the performance matrices are also being included in this article with Xgraph screen show by different through puts like Packet Delivery Ratio (PDR), Through Put(TP), and Average Delay(AD).

Keywords: Mobile ad hoc network, MANET, intrusion detection system, back propagation algorithm, neural networks, traffic table, multilayer perceptron, feed-forward back-propagation, network simulator 2.

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Authors: Nuseiba M. Altarawneh, Suhuai Luo, Brian Regan, Guijin Tang

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Liver segmentation from medical images poses more challenges than analogous segmentations of other organs. This contribution introduces a liver segmentation method from a series of computer tomography images. Overall, we present a novel method for segmenting liver by coupling density matching with shape priors. Density matching signifies a tracking method which operates via maximizing the Bhattacharyya similarity measure between the photometric distribution from an estimated image region and a model photometric distribution. Density matching controls the direction of the evolution process and slows down the evolving contour in regions with weak edges. The shape prior improves the robustness of density matching and discourages the evolving contour from exceeding liver’s boundaries at regions with weak boundaries. The model is implemented using a modified distance regularized level set (DRLS) model. The experimental results show that the method achieves a satisfactory result. By comparing with the original DRLS model, it is evident that the proposed model herein is more effective in addressing the over segmentation problem. Finally, we gauge our performance of our model against matrices comprising of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Keywords: Bhattacharyya distance, distance regularized level set (DRLS) model, liver segmentation, level set method.

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Authors: M. T. Sichani, B. J. Pedersen, S. R. K. Nielsen

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Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of civil engineering structures. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical cross spectral density function for the along-wind turbulence component over the wind field area is taken as the starting point. The spectrum is spatially discretized in terms of a Hermitian cross-spectral density matrix for the turbulence state vector which turns out not to be positive definite. Since the succeeding state space and ARMA modelling of the turbulence rely on the positive definiteness of the cross-spectral density matrix, the problem with the non-positive definiteness of such matrices is at first addressed and suitable treatments regarding it are proposed. From the adjusted positive definite cross-spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modelling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order, and estimation of a state space model for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modelling method.

Keywords: Turbulence, wind turbine, complex coherence, state space modelling, ARMA modelling.

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Authors: Wenhao Wang, Xinzhi Xu, Limin Feng, Wei Cong

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This paper comprehensively investigates current development status of global power grids and fossil energy pipelines (oil and natural gas), proposes a standard visual platform of global power and fossil energy based on Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. In this visual platform, a series of systematic visual models is proposed with global spatial data, systematic energy and power parameters. Under this visual platform, the current Global Power Grids Map and Global Fossil Energy Pipelines Map are plotted within more than 140 countries and regions across the world. Using the multi-scale fusion data processing and modeling methods, the world’s global fossil energy pipelines and power grids information system basic database is established, which provides important data supporting global fossil energy and electricity research. Finally, through the systematic and comparative study of global fossil energy pipelines and global power grids, the general status of global fossil energy and electricity development are reviewed, and energy transition in key areas are evaluated and analyzed. Through the comparison analysis of fossil energy and clean energy, the direction of relevant research is pointed out for clean development and energy transition.

Keywords: Energy Transition, geographic information system, fossil energy, power systems.

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Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi

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The quality of short term load forecasting can improve the efficiency of planning and operation of electric utilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are employed for nonlinear short term load forecasting owing to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities. At present, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network. One has often to resort to the trial and error approach. This paper describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for short-term load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to develop the optimum large neural network structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. PSO is a novel random optimization method based on swarm intelligence, which has more powerful ability of global optimization. Employing PSO algorithms on the design and training of ANNs allows the ANN architecture and parameters to be easily optimized. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. The experimental results show that the proposed method optimized by PSO can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the forecasting precision compared with the conventional Back Propagation (BP) method. Moreover, it is not only simple to calculate, but also practical and effective. Also, it provides a greater degree of accuracy in many cases and gives lower percent errors all the time for STLF problem compared to BP method. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.

Keywords: Large Neural Network, Short-Term Load Forecasting, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: Dyi-Cheng Chen, Wen-Hsuan Ku, Ming-Ren Chen

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The current of professional bicycle pedal-s manufacturing model mostly used casting, forging, die-casting processing methods, so the paper used 7075 aluminum alloy which is to produce the bicycle parts most commonly, and employs the rigid-plastic finite element (FE) DEFORMTM 3D software to simulate and to analyze the professional bicycle pedal design. First we use Solid works 2010 3D graphics software to design the professional bicycle pedal of the mold and appearance, then import finite element (FE) DEFORMTM 3D software for analysis. The paper used rigid-plastic model analytical methods, and assuming mode to be rigid body. A series of simulation analyses in which the variables depend on different temperature of forging billet, friction factors, forging speed, mold temperature are reveal to effective stress, effective strain, damage and die radial load distribution for forging bicycle pedal. The analysis results hope to provide professional bicycle pedal forming mold references to identified whether suit with the finite element results for high-strength design suitability of aluminum alloy.

Keywords: Bicycle pedal, finite element analysis, 7075 aluminum alloy, Taguchi method

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Authors: Malek Makki

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The main purpose of this research study is to assist non-profit organizations (NPOs) to better segment a group of least developing countries and to optimally target the most needier areas, so that the provided aids make positive and lasting differences. We applied international marketing and strategy approaches to segment a sub-group of candidates among a group of 151 countries identified by the UN-G77 list, and furthermore, we point out the areas of priorities. We use reliable and well known criteria on the basis of economics, geography, demography and behavioral. These criteria can be objectively estimated and updated so that a follow-up can be performed to measure the outcomes of any program. We selected 12 socio-economic criteria that complement each other: GDP per capita, GDP growth, industry value added, export per capita, fragile state index, corruption perceived index, environment protection index, ease of doing business index, global competitiveness index, Internet use, public spending on education, and employment rate. A weight was attributed to each variable to highlight the relative importance of each criterion within the country. Care was taken to collect the most recent available data from trusted well-known international organizations (IMF, WB, WEF, and WTO). Construct of equivalence was carried out to compare the same variables across countries. The combination of all these weighted estimated criteria provides us with a global index that represents the level of development per country. An absolute index that combines wars and risks was introduced to exclude or include a country on the basis of conflicts and a collapsing state. The final step applied to the included countries consists of a benchmarking method to select the segment of countries and the percentile of each criterion. The results of this study allowed us to exclude 16 countries for risks and security. We also excluded four countries because they lack reliable and complete data. The other countries were classified per percentile thru their global index, and we identified the needier and the areas where aids are highly required to help any NPO to prioritize the area of implementation. This new concept is based on defined, actionable, accessible and accurate variables by which NPO can implement their program and it can be extended to profit companies to perform their corporate social responsibility acts.

Keywords: Developing countries, International marketing, non-profit organization, segmentation.

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Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

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For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: Differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization.

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Authors: Adam Gorine, Faten Spondon

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Python is considered the most popular programming language and offers its own ecosystem for archiving and maintaining open-source software packages. This system is called the Python Package Index (PyPI), the repository of this programming language. Unfortunately, one-third of these software packages have vulnerabilities that allow attackers to execute code automatically when a vulnerable or malicious package is installed. This paper contributes to large-scale empirical studies investigating security issues in the Python ecosystem by evaluating package vulnerabilities. These provide a series of implications that can help the security of software ecosystems by improving the process of discovering, fixing, and managing package vulnerabilities. The vulnerable dataset is generated using the NVD, the National Vulnerability Database, and the Snyk vulnerability dataset. In addition, we evaluated 807 vulnerability reports in the NVD and 3900 publicly known security vulnerabilities in Python Package Manager (Pip) from the Snyk database from 2002 to 2022. As a result, many Python vulnerabilities appear in high severity, followed by medium severity. The most problematic areas have been improper input validation and denial of service attacks. A hybrid scanning tool that combines the three scanners, Bandit, Snyk and Dlint, which provide a clear report of the code vulnerability, is also described.

Keywords: Python vulnerabilities, Bandit, Snyk, Dlint, Python Package Index, ecosystem, static analysis, malicious attacks.

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Authors: Ni Ni Soe , Masahiro Nakagawa

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Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a practical non-invasive optical technique to detect characteristic of hemoglobin density dynamics response during functional activation of the cerebral cortex. In this paper, fNIRS measurements were made in the area of motor cortex from C4 position according to international 10-20 system. Three subjects, aged 23 - 30 years, were participated in the experiment. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the effects of different motor activation tasks of the hemoglobin density dynamics of fNIRS signal. The chaotic concept based on deterministic dynamics is an important feature in biological signal analysis. This paper employs the chaotic properties which is a novel method of nonlinear analysis, to analyze and to quantify the chaotic property in the time series of the hemoglobin dynamics of the various motor imagery tasks of fNIRS signal. Usually, hemoglobin density in the human brain cortex is found to change slowly in time. An inevitable noise caused by various factors is to be included in a signal. So, principle component analysis method (PCA) is utilized to remove high frequency component. The phase pace is reconstructed and evaluated the Lyapunov spectrum, and Lyapunov dimensions. From the experimental results, it can be conclude that the signals measured by fNIRS are chaotic.

Keywords: Chaos, hemoglobin, Lyapunov spectrum, motorimagery, near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), principal componentanalysis (PCA).

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Authors: Leila Vafajoo, Farhad Khorasheh, Mehrnoosh Hamzezadeh Nakhjavani, Moslem Fattahi

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In the present study, a procedure was developed to determine the optimum reaction rate constants in generalized Arrhenius form and optimized through the Nelder-Mead method. For this purpose, a comprehensive mathematical model of a fixed bed reactor for dehydrogenation of heavy paraffins over Pt–Sn/Al2O3 catalyst was developed. Utilizing appropriate kinetic rate expressions for the main dehydrogenation reaction as well as side reactions and catalyst deactivation, a detailed model for the radial flow reactor was obtained. The reactor model composed of a set of partial differential equations (PDE), ordinary differential equations (ODE) as well as algebraic equations all of which were solved numerically to determine variations in components- concentrations in term of mole percents as a function of time and reactor radius. It was demonstrated that most significant variations observed at the entrance of the bed and the initial olefin production obtained was rather high. The aforementioned method utilized a direct-search optimization algorithm along with the numerical solution of the governing differential equations. The usefulness and validity of the method was demonstrated by comparing the predicted values of the kinetic constants using the proposed method with a series of experimental values reported in the literature for different systems.

Keywords: Dehydrogenation, Pt-Sn/Al2O3 Catalyst, Modeling, Nelder-Mead, Optimization

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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Authors: Jui-Pui Hung, Yu-Sheng Lai, Tzuo-Liang Luo, Kung-Da Wu, Yun-Ji Zhan

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This study presented the investigation of the influence of the tool holder interface stiffness on the dynamic characteristics of a spindle tool system. The interface stiffness was produced by drawbar force on the tool holder, which tends to affect the spindle dynamics. In order to assess the influence of interface stiffness on the vibration characteristic of spindle unit, we first created a three dimensional finite element model of a high speed spindle system integrated with tool holder. The key point for the creation of FEM model is the modeling of the rolling interface within the angular contact bearings and the tool holder interface. The former can be simulated by a introducing a series of spring elements between inner and outer rings. The contact stiffness was calculated according to Hertz contact theory and the preload applied on the bearings. The interface stiffness of the tool holder was identified through the experimental measurement and finite element modal analysis. Current results show that the dynamic stiffness was greatly influenced by the tool holder system. In addition, variations of modal damping, static stiffness and dynamic stiffness of the spindle tool system were greatly determined by the interface stiffness of the tool holder which was in turn dependent on the draw bar force applied on the tool holder. Overall, this study demonstrates that identification of the interface characteristics of spindle tool holder is of very importance for the refinement of the spindle tooling system to achieve the optimum machining performance.

Keywords: Dynamic stiffness, Drawbar force, Interface stiffness, Spindle-tool holder.

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Authors: W. Nataniel, B. Lima, J. Manoel, M. P. Filho, H. Marcos, Oliveira Mauricio, P. Ferreira

Abstract:

Headed reinforcement bars are increasingly used for anchorage in concrete structures. Applications include connections in composite steel-concrete structures, such as beam-column joints, in several strengthening situations as well as in more traditional uses in cast-in-place and precast structural systems. This paper investigates the reduction in the ultimate tensile capacity of embedded cast-in headed anchors due to concrete cracking. A series of nine laboratory tests are carried out to evaluate the influence of cracking on the concrete breakout strength in tension. The experimental results show that cracking affects both the resistance and load-slip response of the headed bar anchors. The strengths measured in these tests are compared to theoretical resistances calculated following the recommendations presented by fib Bulletin no. 58 (2011), ETAG 001 (2010) and ACI 318 (2014). The influences of parameters such as the effective embedment depth (h_ef), bar diameter (d_s), and the concrete compressive strength (f_c) are analysed and discussed. The theoretical recommendations are shown to be over-conservative for both embedment depths and were, in general, inaccurate in comparison to the experimental trends. The ACI 318 (2014) was the design code which presented the best performance regarding to the predictions of the ultimate load, with an average of 1.42 for the ratio between the experimental and estimated strengths, standard deviation of 0.36, and coefficient of variation equal to 0.25.

Keywords: Cast-in headed anchors, concrete cone failure, uncracked concrete, cracked concrete.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Linking social needs to social classes using different criteria may lead to social services misuse. The paper discusses using ML and Neural Networks (NNs) in linking public services in Scotland in the long term and advocates, this can result in a reduction of the services cost connecting resources needed in groups for similar services. The paper combines typical regression models with clustering and cross-correlation as complementary constituents to predict the demand. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack linked services such as those offered to the elderly or to low-income people in the longer term. The work is based on public data from 22 services offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and from the Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019 that are broken into 110 years series called factors and uses Linear Regression (LR), Autoregression (ARMA) and 3 types of back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks (BPNN) to link them under specific conditions. Relationships found were between smoking related healthcare provision, mental health-related health services, and epidemiological weight in Primary 1(Education) Body Mass Index (BMI) in children. Primary component analysis (PCA) found 11 significant factors while C-Means (CM) clustering gave 5 major factors clusters.

Keywords: Probability, cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: Kayijuka Idrissa

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This work investigates a mathematical study for traffic flow and traffic density in Kigali city roads and the data collected from the national police of Rwanda in 2012. While working on this topic, some mathematical models were used in order to analyze and compare traffic variables. This work has been carried out on Kigali roads specifically at roundabouts from Kigali Business Center (KBC) to Prince House as our study sites. In this project, we used some mathematical tools to analyze the data collected and to understand the relationship between traffic variables. We applied the Poisson distribution method to analyze and to know the number of accidents occurred in this section of the road which is from KBC to Prince House. The results show that the accidents that occurred in 2012 were at very high rates due to the fact that this section has a very narrow single lane on each side which leads to high congestion of vehicles, and consequently, accidents occur very frequently. Using the data of speeds and densities collected from this section of road, we found that the increment of the density results in a decrement of the speed of the vehicle. At the point where the density is equal to the jam density the speed becomes zero. The approach is promising in capturing sudden changes on flow patterns and is open to be utilized in a series of intelligent management strategies and especially in noncurrent congestion effect detection and control.

Keywords: Statistical methods, Poisson distribution, car moving techniques, traffic flow.

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Authors: W. Suksombat, P. Suksombat, R. Mirattanaphrai

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The effects of commercial or bovine yeasts on the performance and blood variables of broiler chickens intoxicated with aflatoxin were investigated in broilers. Four hundred eighty broilers (Arbor Acres; 3-wk-old) were randomly assigned to 4 groups. Each group (120 broiler chickens) was further randomly divided into 6 replicates of 20 chickens. The treatments were control diet without additives (treatment 1), 250 ppb AFB1 (treatment 2), commercial yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, (CY 2.5 x 107 CFU/g) + 250 ppb AFB1 (treatment 3) and bovine yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, (BY 2.5 x 107 CFU/g + 250 ppb AFB1 (treatment 4). Complete randomized design (CRD) was used in the experiment. Feed consumption and body weight were recorded at every five-day period. On day 42, carcass compositions were determined from 30 birds per treatment. While chicks were sacrificed, 3-4 ml blood sample was taken and stored frozen at (-20°C) for serum chemical analysis to determine effects of consumption of diets on blood chemistry (total protein, albumin, glucose, urea, cholesterol and triglycerides). There were no significant differences in ADFI among the treatments(P>0.05). However, BWG, FCR and mortality were highly significantly different (P<0.01) between treatments. ADG was significantly reduced (P<0.05) by aflatoxin but was unaffected by aflatoxin supplemented with either commercial or bovine yeasts (P>0.05). In terms of carcass portions, percentage of carcass was unaffected by the treatments, however, percentages of drumstick were reduced by aflatoxin and aflatoxin supplemented commercial yeast. Abdominal fat was significantly reduced (P<0.01) when commercial or bovine yeasts were added to the aflatoxin contaminated diets. Percentage of liver were significantly increased by aflatoxin contamination but were unaffected when yeasts were added to the diets. Blood chemical parameters, i.e. albumin, blood urea nitrogen and glucose were unaffected the treatments, while total protein, cholesterol and triglycerides were significantly decreased by aflatoxin. When yeasts were supplemented, such effect was not differed from the control. It is clearly indicated in the present study that supplementation of either commercial or bovine yeasts had beneficial effects on performance of broiler chickens intoxicated with aflatoxins.

Keywords: Aflatoxin, Commercial yeast, Bovine yeast, Growth performance, Blood chemical parameters, Broilers

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Authors: Achim Kampker, Kai Kreiskoether, Johannes Wagner, Sarah Fluchs

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The growing speed of innovation in related industries requires the automotive industry to adapt and increase release frequencies of new vehicle derivatives which implies a significant reduction of investments per vehicle and ramp-up times. Emerging markets in various parts of the world augment the currently dominating established main automotive markets. Local content requirements such as import tariffs on final products impede the accessibility of these micro markets, which is why in the future market exploitation will not be driven by pure sales activities anymore but rather by setting up local assembly units. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the concept of decentralized assembly and to discuss and critically assess some currently researched and crucial approaches in production technology. In order to determine the scope in which complementary mobile assembly can be profitable for manufacturers, a general cost model is set up and each cost driver is assessed with respect to varying levels of decentralization. One main result of the paper is that the presented approaches offer huge cost-saving potentials and are thus critical for future production strategies. Nevertheless, they still need to be further exploited in order for decentralized assembly to be profitable for companies. The optimal level of decentralization must, however, be specifically determined in each case and cannot be defined in general.

Keywords: Automotive assembly, e-mobility, production technology, small series assembly.

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Authors: Rafal Michalski, Jakub Zygadlo

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We present the concept and scientific methods and algorithms of our computation system called ATOMIC MATTERS. This is the first presentation of the new computer package, that allows its user to describe physical properties of atomic localized electron systems subject to electromagnetic interactions. Our solution applies to situations where an unclosed electron 2p/3p/3d/4d/5d/4f/5f subshell interacts with an electrostatic potential of definable symmetry and external magnetic field. Our methods are based on Crystal Electric Field (CEF) approach, which takes into consideration the electrostatic ligands field as well as the magnetic Zeeman effect. The application allowed us to predict macroscopic properties of materials such as: Magnetic, spectral and calorimetric as a result of physical properties of their fine electronic structure. We emphasize the importance of symmetry of charge surroundings of atom/ion, spin-orbit interactions (spin-orbit coupling) and the use of complex number matrices in the definition of the Hamiltonian. Calculation methods, algorithms and convention recalculation tools collected in ATOMIC MATTERS were chosen to permit the prediction of magnetic and spectral properties of materials in isostructural series.

Keywords: Atomic matters, crystal electric field, spin-orbit coupling, localized states, electron subshell, fine electronic structure.

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Authors: M. Rad, M. Dolatshahi Pirooz, M. Esmayili

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To understand the seismic behavior of the offshore structures, the dynamic interaction of the water-structure-soil should be assessed. In this regard the role of the water dynamic properties in magnifying or reducing of the effects of earthquake induced motions on offshore structures haven't been investigated in precise manner in available literature. In this paper the sea water level fluctuations effects on the seismic behavior of a sample of offshore structures has been investigated by emphasizing on the water-structure interaction phenomenon. For this purpose a two dimensional finite element model of offshore structures as well as surrounded water has been developed using ANSYS software. The effect of soil interaction with embedded pile foundation has been imposed by using a series of nonlinear springs in horizontal and vertical directions in soil-piles contact points. In the model, the earthquake induced motions have been applied on springs and consequently the motions propagated upward to the structure and surrounded water. As a result of numerical study, the horizontal deformations of the offshore deck as well as internal force and buckling coefficient in structural elements have been recorded and controlled with and without water presence. In part of study a parametric study has been accomplished on sea water level fluctuations and effect of this parameter has been studied on the aforementioned numerical results.

Keywords: Fluid-Structure Interaction, Jacket, Sea Water Level, Seismic Loading.

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Authors: S. Chabbak

Abstract:

In a widely globalized world, the influence of audiovisual translation on the culture and identity of audiences is unmistakable. However, in the Arab World, there is a noticeable disproportion between this growing influence and the research carried out in the field. As a matter of fact, the voiced-over documentary is one of the most abundantly translated genres in the Arab World that carries lots of ideological elements which are in many cases rendered by manipulation. However, voiced-over documentaries have hardly received any focused attention from researchers in the Arab World. This paper attempts to scrutinize the process of translation of voiced-over documentaries in the Arab World, from French into Arabic in the present case study, by sub-categorizing the ideological items subject to manipulation, identifying the techniques utilized in their translation and exploring the potential extra-linguistic factors that prompt translation agents to opt for manipulative translation. The investigation is based on a corpus of 94 episodes taken from a series entitled 360° GEO Reports, produced by the French German network ARTE in French, and acquired, translated and aired by Al Jazeera Documentary Channel for Arab audiences. The results yielded 124 cases of manipulation in four sub-categories of ideological items, and the use of 10 different oblique procedures in the process of manipulative translation. The study also revealed that manipulation is in most of the instances dictated by the editorial line of the broadcasting channel, in addition to the religious, geopolitical and socio-cultural peculiarities of the target culture.

Keywords: Audiovisual translation, ideological items, manipulation, voiced-over documentaries.

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Authors: Gaya Tridinanti

Abstract:

Enhanching English vocabulary in early childhood is the main problem often faced by teachers. Thus, the purpose of this study was to determine the enhancement of children’s English vocabulary acquisition by using digital storytelling. This type of research was an action research. It consisted of a series of four activities done in repeated cycles: planning, implementation, observation, and reflection. The subject of the study consisted of 30 students of B group (5-6 years old) attending Happy Kids Kindergarten Palembang, Indonesia. This research was conducted in three cycles. The methods used for data collection were observation and documentation. Descriptive qualitative and quantitative methods were also used to analyse the data. The research showed that the digital storytelling learning activities could enhance the children’s English vocabulary acquisition. It is based on the data in which the enhancement in pre-cycle was 37% and 51% in Cycle I. In Cycle II it was 71% and in Cycle III it was 89.3%. The results showed an enhancement of about 14% from the pre-cycle to Cycle I, 20% from Cycle I to Cycle II, and enhancement of about 18.3% from Cycle II to Cycle III. The conclusion of this study suggests that digital storytelling learning method could enhance the English vocabulary acquisition of B group children at the Happy Kids Kindergarten Palembang. Therefore, digital storytelling can be considered as an alternative to improve English language learning in the classroom.

Keywords: Acquisition, enhancing, digital storytelling, English vocabulary.

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: Non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson Innovations, CML

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Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

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This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: Thailand tourism, maximum entropy bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information.

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Authors: C. C. Alamanjo, A. O. Adepoju, H. Martin, R. N. Baines

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Peri-urban agriculture in Jos Nigeria serves as a major means of livelihood for both urban and peri-urban poor, and constitutes huge commercial inclination with a target market that has spanned beyond Plateau State. Yet, the sustainability of this sector is threatened by intensive application of urban refuse ash contaminated with heavy metals, as a result of the highly heterogeneous materials used in ash production. Hence, this research aimed to understand the current fertilizer employed by farmers, their perception and acceptability in utilization of household sewage sludge for agricultural purposes and their capacity in mitigating risks associated with such practice. Mixed methods approach was adopted, and data collection tools used include survey questionnaire, focus group discussion with farmers, participants and field observation. The study identified that farmers maintain a complex mixture of organic and chemical fertilizers, with mixture composition that is dependent on fertilizer availability and affordability. Also, farmers have decreased the rate of utilization of urban refuse ash due to labor and increased logistic cost and are keen to utilize household sewage sludge for soil fertility improvement but are mainly constrained by accessibility of this waste product. Nevertheless, farmers near to sewage disposal points have commenced utilization of household sewage sludge for improving soil fertility. Farmers were knowledgeable on composting but find their strategic method of dewatering and sun drying more convenient. Irrigation farmers were not enthusiastic for treatment, as they desired both water and sludge. Secondly, household sewage sludge observed in the field is heterogeneous due to nearness between its disposal point and that of urban refuse, which raises concern for possible cross-contamination of pollutants and also portrays lack of extension guidance as regards to treatment and management of household sewage sludge for agricultural purposes. Hence, farmers concerns need to be addressed, particularly in providing extension advice and establishment of decentralized household sewage sludge collection centers, for continuous availability of liquid and concentrated sludge. Urgent need is also required for the Federal Government of Nigeria to increase commitment towards empowering her subsidiaries for efficient discharge of corporate responsibilities.

Keywords: Ash, farmers, household, peri-urban, refuse, sewage, sludge, urban.

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