Search results for: uncertainty analysis

Authors: Arkady Bolotin

Abstract:

Dichotomization of the outcome by a single cut-off point is an important part of various medical studies. Usually the relationship between the resulted dichotomized dependent variable and explanatory variables is analyzed with linear regression, probit regression or logistic regression. However, in many real-life situations, a certain cut-off point dividing the outcome into two groups is unknown and can be specified only approximately, i.e. surrounded by some (small) uncertainty. It means that in order to have any practical meaning the regression model must be robust to this uncertainty. In this paper, we show that neither the beta in the linear regression model, nor its significance level is robust to the small variations in the dichotomization cut-off point. As an alternative robust approach to the problem of uncertain medical categories, we propose to use the linear regression model with the fuzzy membership function as a dependent variable. This fuzzy membership function denotes to what degree the value of the underlying (continuous) outcome falls below or above the dichotomization cut-off point. In the paper, we demonstrate that the linear regression model of the fuzzy dependent variable can be insensitive against the uncertainty in the cut-off point location. In the paper we present the modeling results from the real study of low hemoglobin levels in infants. We systematically test the robustness of the binomial regression model and the linear regression model with the fuzzy dependent variable by changing the boundary for the category Anemia and show that the behavior of the latter model persists over a quite wide interval.

Keywords: Categorization, Uncertain medical categories, Binomial regression model, Fuzzy dependent variable, Robustness.

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Authors: Riku Hayashida, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

This paper provides a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. Underwater robots are expected to be used for various work assignments. The large variety of applications of underwater robots motivates researchers to develop control systems and technologies for underwater robots. Several control methods have been proposed so far for the stabilization of nominal system model of underwater robots with no parameter uncertainty. Parameter uncertainties are considered to be obstacles in implementation of the such nominal control methods for underwater robots. The objective of this study is to establish a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: Robust control, stabilization method, underwater robot, parameter uncertainty.

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Authors: Saheed A. Gbadegeshin

Abstract:

Commercialization method is a means to make inventions available at the market for final consumption. It is described as an important tool for keeping business enterprises sustainable and improving national economic growth. Thus, there are several scholarly publications on it, either presenting or testing different methods for commercialization. However, young entrepreneurs, technologists and scientists would like to know the best method to commercialize their innovations. Then, this question arises: What is the best commercialization method? To answer the question, a systematic literature review was conducted, and practitioners were interviewed. The literary results revealed that there are many methods but new methods are needed to improve commercialization especially during these times of economic crisis and political uncertainty. Similarly, the empirical results showed there are several methods, but the best method is the one that reduces costs, reduces the risks associated with uncertainty, and improves customer participation and acceptability. Therefore, it was concluded that new commercialization method is essential for today's high technologies and a method was presented.

Keywords: Commercialization method, high technology, lean start-up methodology, technology, knowledge.

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

Abstract:

Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis.

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Authors: Ben Khayut, Lina Fabri, Maya Avikhana

Abstract:

The modern Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) models cannot: a) independently, situationally, and continuously function without of human intelligence, used for retraining and reprogramming the ANI’s models, and b) think, understand, be conscious, and cognize under uncertainty and changing of the environmental objects. To eliminate these shortcomings and build a new generation of Artificial Intelligence systems, the paper proposes a Conception, Model, and Method of Computational Psycholinguistic Cognitive Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System (CPCSFSCBMSUU). This system uses a neural network as its computational memory, and activates functions of the perception, identification of real objects, fuzzy situational control, and forming images of these objects. These images and objects are used for modeling their psychological, linguistic, cognitive, and neural values of properties and features, the meanings of which are identified, interpreted, generated, and formed taking into account the identified subject area, using the data, information, knowledge, accumulated in the Memory. The functioning of the CPCSFSCBMSUU is carried out by its subsystems of the: fuzzy situational control of all processes, computational perception, identifying of reactions and actions, Psycholinguistic Cognitive Fuzzy Logical Inference, Decision Making, Reasoning, Systems Thinking, Planning, Awareness, Consciousness, Cognition, Intuition, and Wisdom. In doing so are performed analysis and processing of the psycholinguistic, subject, visual, signal, sound and other objects, accumulation and using the data, information and knowledge of the Memory, communication, and interaction with other computing systems, robots and humans in order of solving the joint tasks. To investigate the functional processes of the proposed system, the principles of situational control, fuzzy logic, psycholinguistics, informatics, and modern possibilities of data science were applied. The proposed self-controlled system of brain and mind is oriented on use as a plug-in in multilingual subject applications.

Keywords: Computational psycholinguistic cognitive brain and mind system, situational fuzzy control, uncertainty, AI.

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Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

Abstract:

Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: Inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fuzzy set and intuitionistic fuzzy set are dealing with the imprecision and uncertainty inherent in a complex decision problem. However, sometimes these theories are not sufficient to model indeterminate and inconsistent information encountered in real-life problems. To overcome this insufficiency, the neutrosophic set, which is useful in practical applications, is proposed, triangular neutrosophic numbers and trapezoidal neutrosophic numbers are examined, their definitions and applications are discussed. In this study, a decision making algorithm is developed using neutrosophic set processes and an application is given in fighter aircraft selection as an example of a decision making problem. The estimation of the fighter aircraft selection with the neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is examined.  

Keywords: neutrosophic set, multiple criteria decision making analysis, fighter aircraft selection, MCDMA, neutrosophic numbers

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location, and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance and within study variance, and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: Random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation.

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Authors: Mehrdad Mahmudizad, Roya Ahmadi Ahangar

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This paper presents the method of designing the type 2 fuzzy PID controllers in order to solve the problem of Load Frequency Control (LFC). The Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is used to regulate the measurement factors and the effect of uncertainty of membership functions of Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (IT2FPID) controllers in order to reduce the frequency deviation resulted from the load oscillations. The simulation results implicitly show that the performance of the proposed IT2FPID LFC in terms of error, settling time and resistance against different load oscillations is more appropriate and preferred than PID and Type 1 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (T1FPID) controllers.

Keywords: Load Frequency Control, Fuzzy-PID controller, Type 2 fuzzy system, Harmony Search algorithm.

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Authors: Imane Khalil, Quinn Pratt

Abstract:

In a nuclear reactor, an array of fuel rods containing stacked uranium dioxide pellets clad with zircalloy is the heat source for a thermodynamic cycle of energy conversion from heat to electricity. After fuel is used in a nuclear reactor, the assemblies are stored underwater in a spent nuclear fuel pool at the nuclear power plant while heat generation and radioactive decay rates decrease before it is placed in packages for dry storage or transportation. A computational model of a Boiling Water Reactor spent fuel assembly is modeled using FLUENT, the computational fluid dynamics package. Heat transfer simulations were performed on the two-dimensional 9x9 spent fuel assembly to predict the maximum cladding temperature for different input to the FLUENT model. Uncertainty quantification is used to predict the heat transfer and the maximum temperature profile inside the assembly.

Keywords: Spent nuclear fuel, conduction, heat transfer, uncertainty quantification.

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Authors: Adam Galuszka, Krzysztof Skrzypczyk, Damian Bereska, Marcin Pacholczyk

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In this paper an average number of re-handlings analysis is proposed to solve the problem of finding bays configuration in small container terminal in Gliwice, Poland. Rehandlings in this terminal can be performed only by reachstackers. The goal of the heuristic is to plan the reachstacter moves in the terminal, assuming that the target containers are reached and the number of re-handings is minimized. The real situation requires also to take into account the model of the problem environment uncertainty caused by the fact that many containers are not delivered to the terminal on time, or can not be sent on scheduled time. To enable this, the heuristic uses some assumptions to simplify problem analysis.

Keywords: Container Terminal, Re-handling operations, Computational efficiency, WiMax.

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Authors: Aynaz Lotfata

Abstract:

Planning community has been long discussing emerging paradigms within the planning theory in the face of the changing conditions of the world order. The paradigm shift concept was introduced by Thomas Kuhn, in 1960, who claimed the necessity of shifting within scientific knowledge boundaries; and following him in 1970 Imre Loktas also gave priority to the emergence of multi-paradigm societies [24]. Multi-paradigm is changing our predetermined lifeworld through uncertainties. Those uncertainties are reflected in two sides, the first one is uncertainty as a concept of possibility and creativity in public sphere and the second one is uncertainty as a risk. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a resilience planning approach to be more dynamic in controlling uncertainties which have the potential to transfigure present time and space definitions. In this way, stability of system can be achieved. Uncertainty is not only an outcome of worldwide changes but also a place-specific issue, i.e. it changes from continent to continent, a country to country; a region to region. Therefore, applying strategic spatial planning with respect to resilience principle contributes to: control, grasp and internalize uncertainties through place-specific strategies. In today-s fast changing world, planning system should follow strategic spatial projects to control multi-paradigm societies with adaptability capacities. Here, we have selected two alternatives to demonstrate; these are; 1.Tehran (Iran) from the Middle East 2.Bath (United Kingdom) from Europe. The study elaborates uncertainties and particularities in their strategic spatial planning processes in a comparative manner. Through the comparison, the study aims at assessing place-specific priorities in strategic planning. The approach is to a two-way stream, where the case cities from the extreme end of the spectrum can learn from each other. The structure of this paper is to firstly compare semi-periphery (Tehran) and coreperiphery (Bath) cities, with the focus to reveal how they equip to face with uncertainties according to their geographical locations and local particularities. Secondly, the key message to address is “Each locality requires its own strategic planning approach to be resilient.--

Keywords: Adaptation, Relational Network, Socio-Spatial Strategic Resiliency, Uncertainty.

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Authors: S. Balaji, E. Golden Julie, M. Rajaram, Y. Harold Robinson

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Network lifetime improvement and uncertainty in multiple systems are the issues of wireless sensor network routing. This paper presents fuzzy based particle swarm optimization routing technique to improve the network scalability. Significantly, in the cluster formation procedure, fuzzy based system is used to solve the uncertainty and network balancing. Cluster heads play an important role to reduce the energy consumption using particle swarm optimization algorithm, the cluster head sends its information along data packets to the heads with link. The simulation results show that the presented routing protocol can perform load balancing effectively and reduce the energy consumption of cluster heads.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, fuzzy logic, PSO, LEACH.

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: Climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty.

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Authors: Nasser Shamskia, Seyyed Habib Rahmati, Hassan Haleh , Seyyedeh Hoda Rahmati

Abstract:

The main criteria of designing in the most hydraulic constructions essentially are based on runoff or discharge of water. Two of those important criteria are runoff and return period. Mostly, these measures are calculated or estimated by stochastic data. Another feature in hydrological data is their impreciseness. Therefore, in order to deal with uncertainty and impreciseness, based on Buckley-s estimation method, a new fuzzy method of evaluating hydrological measures are developed. The method introduces triangular shape fuzzy numbers for different measures in which both of the uncertainty and impreciseness concepts are considered. Besides, since another important consideration in most of the hydrological studies is comparison of a measure during different months or years, a new fuzzy method which is consistent with special form of proposed fuzzy numbers, is also developed. Finally, to illustrate the methods more explicitly, the two algorithms are tested on one simple example and a real case study.

Keywords: Fuzzy Discharge, Fuzzy estimation, Fuzzy ranking method, Hydrological data

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Authors: Abdalla Kablan, Joseph Falzon

Abstract:

This paper is motivated by the aspect of uncertainty in financial decision making, and how artificial intelligence and soft computing, with its uncertainty reducing aspects can be used for algorithmic trading applications that trade in high frequency. This paper presents an optimized high frequency trading system that has been combined with various moving averages to produce a hybrid system that outperforms trading systems that rely solely on moving averages. The paper optimizes an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system that takes both the price and its moving average as input, learns to predict price movements from training data consisting of intraday data, dynamically switches between the best performing moving averages, and performs decision making of when to buy or sell a certain currency in high frequency.

Keywords: Financial decision making, High frequency trading, Adaprive neuro-fuzzy systems, moving average strategy.

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Authors: C. Ardil, A. M. Pashaev, R.A. Sadiqov, P. Abdullayev

Abstract:

In this paper, multiple criteria decision making analysis technique, is presented for ranking and selection of a set of determined alternatives - fighter aircraft - which are associated with a set of decision factors. In fighter aircraft design, conflicting decision criteria, disciplines, and technologies are always involved in the design process. Multiple criteria decision making analysis techniques can be helpful to effectively deal with such situations and make wise design decisions. Multiple criteria decision making analysis theory is a systematic mathematical approach for dealing with problems which contain uncertainties in decision making. The feasibility and contributions of applying the multiple criteria decision making analysis technique in fighter aircraft selection analysis is explored. In this study, an integrated framework incorporating multiple criteria decision making analysis technique in fighter aircraft analysis is established using entropy objective weighting method. An improved integrated multiple criteria decision making analysis method is utilized to aggregate the multiple decision criteria into one composite figure of merit, which serves as an objective function in the decision process. Therefore, it is demonstrated that the suitable multiple criteria decision making analysis method with decision solution provides an effective objective function for the decision making analysis. Considering that the inherent uncertainties and the weighting factors have crucial decision impacts on the fighter aircraft evaluation, seven fighter aircraft models for the multiple design criteria in terms of the weighting factors are constructed. The proposed multiple criteria decision making analysis model is based on integrated entropy index procedure, and additive multiple criteria decision making analysis theory. Hence, the applicability of proposed technique for fighter aircraft selection problem is considered. The constructed multiple criteria decision making analysis model can provide efficient decision analysis approach for uncertainty assessment of the decision problem. Consequently, the fighter aircraft alternatives are ranked based their final evaluation scores, and sensitivity analysis is conducted.

Keywords: Fighter Aircraft, Fighter Aircraft Selection, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA

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Authors: Zakari Yaou, Lirong Cui

Abstract:

In a product development process, understanding the functional behavior of the system, the role of components in achieving functions and failure modes if components/subsystem fails its required function will help develop appropriate design validation and verification program for reliability assessment. The integration of these three issues will help design and reliability engineers in identifying weak spots in design and planning future actions and testing program. This case study demonstrate the advantage of unascertained theory described in the subjective cognition uncertainty, and then applies blind number (BN) theory in describing the uncertainty of the mechanical system failure process and the same time used the same theory in bringing out another mechanical reliability system model. The practical calculations shows the BN Model embodied the characters of simply, small account of calculation but betterforecasting capability, which had the value of macroscopic discussion to some extent.

Keywords: Mechanical structure Design, time-dependent stochastic process, unascertained information, blind number theory.

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Authors: Nasim Ullah, Shaoping Wang

Abstract:

ELS is an important ground based hardware in the loop simulator used for aerodynamics torque loading experiments of the actuators under test. This work focuses on improvement of the transient response of torque controller with parameters uncertainty of Electrical Load Simulator (ELS).The parameters of load simulator are estimated online and the model is updated, eliminating the model error and improving the steady state torque tracking response of torque controller. To improve the Transient control performance the gain of robust term of SMC is updated online using fuzzy logic system based on the amount of uncertainty in parameters of load simulator. The states of load simulator which cannot be measured directly are estimated using luenberger observer with update of new estimated parameters. The stability of the control scheme is verified using Lyapunov theorem. The validity of proposed control scheme is verified using simulations.

Keywords: ELS, Observer, Transient Performance, SMC, Extra Torque, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Tomi Roinila, Aki Taskinen, Matti Vilkko

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Switched-mode converters play now a significant role in modern society. Their operation are often crucial in various electrical applications affecting the every day life. Therefore, the quality of the converters needs to be reliably verified. Recent studies have shown that the converters can be fully characterized by a set of frequency responses which can be efficiently used to validate the proper operation of the converters. Consequently, several methods have been proposed to measure the frequency responses fast and accurately. Most often correlation-based techniques have been applied. The presented measurement methods are highly sensitive to external errors and system nonlinearities. This fact has been often forgotten and the necessary uncertainty analysis of the measured responses has been neglected. This paper presents a simple approach to analyze the noise and nonlinearities in the frequency-response measurements of switched-mode converters. Coherence analysis is applied to form a confidence interval characterizing the noise and nonlinearities involved in the measurements. The presented method is verified by practical measurements from a high-frequency switchedmode converter.

Keywords: Switched-mode converters, Frequency analysis, CoherenceAnalysis.

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Authors: Orhan Feyzioğlu, Gülçin Büyüközkan

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As a vital activity for companies, new product development (NPD) is also a very risky process due to the high uncertainty degree encountered at every development stage and the inevitable dependence on how previous steps are successfully accomplished. Hence, there is an apparent need to evaluate new product initiatives systematically and make accurate decisions under uncertainty. Another major concern is the time pressure to launch a significant number of new products to preserve and increase the competitive power of the company. In this work, we propose an integrated decision-making framework based on neural networks and fuzzy logic to make appropriate decisions and accelerate the evaluation process. We are especially interested in the two initial stages where new product ideas are selected (go/no go decision) and the implementation order of the corresponding projects are determined. We show that this two-staged intelligent approach allows practitioners to roughly and quickly separate good and bad product ideas by making use of previous experiences, and then, analyze a more shortened list rigorously.

Keywords: Decision Making, Neural Networks, Fuzzy Theory and Systems, Choquet Integral, New Product Development.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fighter aircraft selection is one of the most critical strategies for defense multiple criteria decision-making analysis to increase the decisive power of air defense and its superior power in the defense strategy. Vague set theory is an adequate approach for modeling vagueness, uncertainty, and imprecision in decision-making problems. This study integrates vague set theory and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support fighter aircraft selection. The proposed method is applied in the selection of fighter aircraft for the Air Force. In the proposed approach, the ratings of alternatives and the importance weights of criteria for fighter aircraft selection are represented by the vague set theory. Finally, an illustrative example for fighter aircraft selection is given to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The fighter aircraft candidates were selected under six criteria including costability, payloadability, maneuverability, speedability, stealthility, and survivability. Analysis results show that the best fighter aircraft is selected with the highest closeness coefficient value. The proposed method can also be applied to solve other multiple criteria decision analysis problems. 

Keywords: fighter aircraft selection, vague set theory, fuzzy set theory, neutrosophic set theory, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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Authors: Safaa R. Amer

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Missing data yields many analysis challenges. In case of complex survey design, in addition to dealing with missing data, researchers need to account for the sampling design to achieve useful inferences. Methods for incorporating sampling weights in neural network imputation were investigated to account for complex survey designs. An estimate of variance to account for the imputation uncertainty as well as the sampling design using neural networks will be provided. A simulation study was conducted to compare estimation results based on complete case analysis, multiple imputation using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and neural network imputation. Furthermore, a public-use dataset was used as an example to illustrate neural networks imputation under a complex survey design

Keywords: Complex survey, estimate, imputation, neural networks, variance.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: M Ahmadigorji, A. Abbaspour, A Rajabi-Ghahnavieh, M. Fotuhi- Firuzabad

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DG application has received increasing attention during recent years. The impact of DG on various aspects of distribution system operation, such as reliability and energy loss, depend highly on DG location in distribution feeder. Optimal DG placement is an important subject which has not been fully discussed yet. This paper presents an optimization method to determine optimal DG placement, based on a cost/worth analysis approach. This method considers technical and economical factors such as energy loss, load point reliability indices and DG costs, and particularly, portability of DG. The proposed method is applied to a test system and the impacts of different parameters such as load growth rate and load forecast uncertainty (LFU) on optimum DG location are studied.

Keywords: Distributed generation, optimal placement, cost/worthanalysis, customer interruption cost, Dynamic programming

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Authors: E. Praynlin, P. Latha

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Software Effort Estimation is the process of estimating the effort required to develop software. By estimating the effort, the cost and schedule required to estimate the software can be determined. Accurate Estimate helps the developer to allocate the resource accordingly in order to avoid cost overrun and schedule overrun. Several methods are available in order to estimate the effort among which soft computing based method plays a prominent role. Software cost estimation deals with lot of uncertainty among all soft computing methods neural network is good in handling uncertainty. In this paper Radial Basis Function Network is compared with the back propagation network and the results are validated using six data sets and it is found that RBFN is best suitable to estimate the effort. The Results are validated using two tests the error test and the statistical test.

Keywords: Software cost estimation, Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN), Back propagation function network, Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE).

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Authors: Mahdi Mazinani, S. D. Qanadli, Rahil Hosseini, Tim Ellis, Jamshid Dehmeshki

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Segmentation and quantification of stenosis is an important task in assessing coronary artery disease. One of the main challenges is measuring the real diameter of curved vessels. Moreover, uncertainty in segmentation of different tissues in the narrow vessel is an important issue that affects accuracy. This paper proposes an algorithm to extract coronary arteries and measure the degree of stenosis. Markovian fuzzy clustering method is applied to model uncertainty arises from partial volume effect problem. The algorithm employs: segmentation, centreline extraction, estimation of orthogonal plane to centreline, measurement of the degree of stenosis. To evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility, the approach has been applied to a vascular phantom and the results are compared with real diameter. The results of 10 patient datasets have been visually judged by a qualified radiologist. The results reveal the superiority of the proposed method compared to the Conventional thresholding Method (CTM) on both datasets.

Keywords: 3D coronary artery tree extraction, segmentation, quantification, fuzzy clustering, and Markov random field

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Authors: Nisarg A. Patel, Hiren B. Patel

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Quantum cryptography is described as a point-to-point secure key generation technology that has emerged in recent times in providing absolute security. Researchers have started studying new innovative approaches to exploit the security of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for a large-scale communication system. A number of approaches and models for utilization of QKD for secure communication have been developed. The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics created a new paradigm for QKD. One of the approaches for use of QKD involved network fashioned security. The main goal was point-to-point Quantum network that exploited QKD technology for end-to-end network security via high speed QKD. Other approaches and models equipped with QKD in network fashion are introduced in the literature as. A different approach that this paper deals with is using QKD in existing protocols, which are widely used on the Internet to enhance security with main objective of unconditional security. Our work is towards the analysis of the QKD in Mobile ad-hoc network (MANET).

Keywords: QKD, cryptography, quantum cryptography, network performance.

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Authors: Zuzana Dideková, Beata Mikovičová

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Characterization of radio communication signals aims at automatic recognition of different characteristics of radio signals in order to detect their modulation type, the central frequency, and the level. Our purpose is to apply techniques used in image processing in order to extract pertinent characteristics. To the single analysis, we add several rules for checking the consistency of hypotheses using fuzzy logic. This allows taking into account ambiguity and uncertainty that may remain after the extraction of individual characteristics. The aim is to improve the process of radio communications characterization.

Keywords: fuzzy classification, fuzzy inference system, radio communication signals, telecommunications

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