Search results for: Stock Market Decisions

Authors: Ahmad Aljaafreh

Abstract:

This paper proposes a hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) to model the detection of M vehicles in a wireless sensor network (WSN). The HHMM model contains an extra level of hidden Markov model to model the temporal transitions of each state of the first HMM. By modeling the temporal transitions, only those hypothesis with nonzero transition probabilities needs to be tested. Thus, this method efficiently reduces the computation load, which is preferable in WSN applications.This paper integrates several techniques to optimize the detection performance. The output of the states of the first HMM is modeled as Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), where the number of states and the number of Gaussians are experimentally determined, while the other parameters are estimated using Expectation Maximization (EM). HHMM is used to model the sequence of the local decisions which are based on multiple hypothesis testing with maximum likelihood approach. The states in the HHMM represent various combinations of vehicles of different types. Due to the statistical advantages of multisensor data fusion, we propose a heuristic based on fuzzy weighted majority voting to enhance cooperative classification of moving vehicles within a region that is monitored by a wireless sensor network. A fuzzy inference system weighs each local decision based on the signal to noise ratio of the acoustic signal for target detection and the signal to noise ratio of the radio signal for sensor communication. The spatial correlation among the observations of neighboring sensor nodes is efficiently utilized as well as the temporal correlation. Simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of this scheme.

Keywords: Classification, decision fusion, fuzzy logic, hidden Markov model

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Authors: David Ruiz, Carlos Nava, Roberto Carbajal

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The psychological profile has become one of the most important sources of information when it comes to individual selection and the hiring process in any organization. Psychological instruments are used to collect data about variables that are considered critically important for performance in work. However, because of conceptual chaos in organizational psychology, most of the information provided by psychological testing is not directly useful for Mexican human resources professionals to take hiring decisions. The aims of this paper are 1) to underline the lack of conceptual precision in theoretical testing foundations in Mexico and 2) presenting a reliability and validity analysis of a frustration tolerance instrument created as an alternative to a heuristically conduct individual assessment in organizations. First, a description of assessment conditions in Mexico is made. Second, an instrument and a theoretical framework is presented as an alternative to the assessment practices in the country. A total of 65 Psychology Iztacala Superior Studies Faculty students were assessed. Cronbach´s alpha coefficient was calculated and an exploratory factor analysis was carried out to prove the scale unidimensionality. Reliability analysis revealed good internal consistency of the scale (Cronbach’s α = 0.825). Factor analysis produced 4 factors for the scale. However, factor loadings and explained variation give proof to the scale unidimensionality. It is concluded that the instrument has good psychometric properties that will allow human resources professionals to collect useful data. Different possibilities to conduct psychological assessment are suggested for future development.

Keywords: Psychological assessment, frustration tolerance, human resources, organizational psychology.

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Authors: Muniyasamy Kalanchiam, Moorthy Chinnasamy

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In the competitive environment of aircraft industries it becomes absolutely necessary to improve the efficiency, performance of the aircrafts to reduce the development and operating costs considerably, in order to capitalize the market. An important contribution to improve the efficiency and performance can be achieved by decreasing the aircraft weight through considerable usage of composite materials in primary aircraft structures. In this study, a type of composite material called Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic (CFRP) is explored for the usage is aircraft skin panels. Even though there were plenty of studies and research has been already carried out, here a practical example of an aircraft skin panel is taken and substantiated the benefits of composites material usage over the metallic skin panel. A crown skin panel of a commercial aircraft is designed using both metal and composite materials. Stress analysis has been carried out for both and margin of safety is estimated for the critical load cases. The skin panels are compared for manufacturing, tooling, assembly and cost parameters. Detail step by step comparison between metal and composite constructions are studied and results are tabulated for better understanding.

Keywords: Composites, CFRP, Aircraft Structure, Skin panel.

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Authors: C. Sridawruang

Abstract:

Young people today has sexual activities differing from those of earlier generations, in that teenagers are likely to have multiple partners, and are frequently in short-term relationships or with partners that are not well known to them. The proportion of teenage mothers in Thailand has increased. Young people were not specifically addressed during the overall very successful HIV-prevention campaigns. Because of this missed opportunity, they are still unaware of the risk of unsafe sexual behavior. Aims: To describe the reproductive health care services in perspectives of rural Thai teenagers Methods: This survey was one part of a mixed method approach taken using survey and focus groups with 439 teenagers aged 12-18 years in 5 villages, Udon Thani, Thailand. The standard questionnaire survey had been used for collecting data. The numeric data was checked and analyzed by using descriptive statistics. Results: Most teenager respondents stated that they do not know where sexual reproductive health services provided for them. Most teenagers felt difficult to access and talk with health staff about sexual related issues. They stated that discussing, or consulting with health providers might not be safe. Teenagers might lose opportunities to access and get advice from health care services. The mean knowledge score of contraception and condom reproductive was 6.34 from a total score 11. Most teenagers especially girls expressed a need for counseling services and reported a need for telephone services. Conclusions: The need of appropriate information focusing on sexual relationships and contraception should be designed to help young people make wise decisions and there should be set health care services for Thai teenagers to make sure that teenagers could access easily. Health care providers need to be trained to improve their knowledge, attitudes and skills in reproductive health care practices for Thai teenagers.

Keywords: Youth friendly health services, rural, Thai, teenagers.

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Authors: Ashkan Mirzay Fashami

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This study examines the effects of auditor switch, auditee’s industry, and auditee’s location on audit fees in Australia. It uses fee data of Australian Securities Exchange 500 companies, considering all industry classifications throughout the country from 2006 until 2016. Main findings show that auditor switch does not affect audit fees. However, auditee’s industry affects audit fees. This effect occurs in information technology, financials, energy, and materials sectors among the top 500 companies. Financials, energy, and materials sectors face a fee rise, whereas information technology has a fee cut. The extent of fee changes is different among various industries, wherein the financial sector has the highest increase. Further, auditee’s location affects audit fees. Top 500 companies in Hobart, Perth, and Brisbane face a fee reduction, wherein the highest cut is in Hobart. Further analysis suggests that the Australian audit market is being increasingly concentrated in the hands of the Big Four audit firms.

Keywords: Audit fee, auditor switch, Australia, industry, location.

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Authors: Dutescu Adriana, Amariei Corneliu, Sahlian Daniela, Stanila Aurelian, Stanila Oana

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20 years of dentistry was a period of transition from communist to market economy but Romanian doctors have insufficient management knowledge. Recently, the need for modern management has increased due to technologies and superior materials appearance, as patient-s demands. Research goal is to increase efficiency by evaluating dental medical office cost categories in real pricing procedures. Empirical research is based on guided study that includes information about the association between categories of cost perception and therapeutic procedures commonly used in dental offices. Due to the obtained results to identify all the labours that make up a settled procedure costs were determined for each procedure. Financial evaluation software was created with the main functions: introducing and maintaining patient records, treatment and appointments made, procedures cost and monitoring office productivity. We believe that the study results can significantly improve the financial management of dental offices, increasing the effectiveness and quality of services.

Keywords: costs, financial methods, management.

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Authors: Peter Benneth, Tsaroh N. Theophilus, Prince Benjamin

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This research work aims at studying the application of Legendre Transformation Method (LTM) to Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation which is an example of optimal control problem. We discuss the steps involved in modelling the HJB equation as it relates to mathematical finance by applying the Ito’s lemma and maximum principle theorem. By applying the LTM and dual theory, the resultant HJB equation is transformed to a linear Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Also, the Optimal Investment Strategy (OIS) and the optimal value function were obtained under the exponential utility function. Furthermore, some numerical results were also presented with observations that the OIS under exponential utility is directly proportional to the appreciation rate of the risky asset and inversely proportional to the instantaneous volatility, predetermined interest rate, risk averse coefficient. Finally, it was observed that the optimal fund size is an increasing function of the risk free interest rate. This result is consistent with some existing results.

Keywords: Legendre transformation method, Optimal investment strategy, Ito’s lemma, Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation, Geometric Brownian motion, financial market.

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Authors: Mehmet Altınöz

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Organizational communication is an administrative function crucial especially for executives in the implementation of organizational and administrative functions. Executives spend a significant part of their time on communicative activities. Doing his or her daily routine, arranging meeting schedules, speaking on the telephone, reading or replying to business correspondence, or fulfilling the control functions within the organization, an executive typically engages in communication processes. Efficient communication is the principal device for the adequate implementation of administrative and organizational activities. For this purpose, management needs to specify the kind of communication system to be set up and the kind of communication devices to be used. Communication is vital for any organization. In conventional offices, communication takes place within the hierarchical pyramid called the organizational structure, and is known as formal or informal communication. Formal communication is the type that works in specified structures within the organizational rules and towards the organizational goals. Informal communication, on the other hand, is the unofficial type taking place among staff as face-to-face or telephone interaction. Communication in virtual as well as conventional offices is essential for obtaining the right information in administrative activities and decision-making. Virtual communication technologies increase the efficiency of communication especially in virtual teams. Group communication is strengthened through an inter-group central channel. Further, ease of information transmission makes it possible to reach the information at the source, allowing efficient and correct decisions. Virtual offices can present as a whole the elements of information which conventional offices produce in different environments. At present, virtual work has become a reality with its pros and cons, and will probably spread very rapidly in coming years, in line with the growth in information technologies.

Keywords: Organization, conventional office, virtual office, communication, communication model, communication functions, communication methods, vertical communication, linear communication, diagonal communication

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Authors: Jayant Sakhardande, Pratik Pattanayak, Mita Bhowmick

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An efficient reintegration of the disabled people in the family and society should be fulfilled; hence it is strongly needful to assist their diminished functions or to replace the totally lost functions. Assistive technology helps in neutralizing the impairment. Recent advancements in embedded systems have opened up a vast area of research and development for affordable and portable assistive devices for the visually impaired. Granted there are many assistive devices on the market that are able to detect obstacles, and numerous research and development currently in process to alleviate the cause, unfortunately the cost of devices, size of devices, intrusiveness and higher learning curve prevents the visually impaired from taking advantage of available devices. This project aims at the design and implementation of a detachable unit which is robust, low cost and user friendly, thus, trying to aggrandize the functionality of the existing white cane, to concede above-knee obstacle detection. The designed obstruction detector uses ultrasound sensors for detecting the obstructions before direct contact. It bestows haptic feedback to the user in accordance with the position of the obstacle.

Keywords: Visually impaired, Ultrasonic sensors, Obstruction detector, Mobility aid

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Authors: Fauziah Hanim Tafri, Zarinah Hamid, Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera, Mohd Azmi Omar

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This paper examines the relationship between financial risks and profitability of the conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period between 1996 and 2005. The measures of profitability that have been used in the study are the return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) while the financial risks are credit risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risks. This study employs panel data regression analysis of Generalised Least Squares of fixed effects and random effects models. It was found that credit risk has a significant impact on ROA and ROE for the conventional as well as the Islamic banks. The relationship between interest rate risk and ROE were found to be weakly significant for the conventional banks and insignificant for the Islamic banks. The effect of interest rate risk on ROA is significant for the conventional banks. Liquidity risk was found to have an insignificant impact on both profitability measures.

Keywords: Credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, market risk, profitability.

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Authors: Yousef S. Al-Othman

Abstract:

The growth and expansion of the industrial facilities comes proportional to the market increasing demand of products and services. Furthermore, raw material producers such as oil companies usually undergo massive revamping projects to maintain a synchronized supply. These revamping projects are usually delivered through challenging construction projects held and associated with daily site risks related to the construction process. Henceforth, a case study related to these risks and corresponding on-spot corrective measurements has been made on a certain number of construction project contractors at Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) to derive the benefits and overall effectiveness of the on-spot corrective measurements during the construction phase of a project, and how would the same help in avoiding major incidents, ensuring a smooth, cost effective and on time delivery of the project. Findings of this case study shall have an added value to the overall risk management process by minimizing the daily site risks that may affect the project lead time, resulting in an undisturbed on-site construction process.

Keywords: Oil and gas, risk management, construction projects, project lead time.

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed, Yang Caixia

Abstract:

The need for national space legislation is pivotal, particularly in light of the fact that in recent years space activities have grown immensely both in volume and diversity. Countries are progressively developing capabilities in space exploration and scientific discoveries, market their capabilities to manufacture satellites, provide launch services from their facilities and are looking to privatize and commercialize their space resources. Today, nations are also seeking to comprehend the technological and financial potential of the private sector and are considering to share their financial burdens with them and to limit their exposures to risks, but they are lagging behind in legal framework in this regard. In the perspective of these emerging developments, it is therefore, felt that national space legislation should be enacted with the goal of building and implementing a vibrant and transparent legal framework at the national level to hasten investments and to ensure growth in this capital intensive - highly yield strategic sector. This study looks at (I) the international legal framework that governs space activities; (II) motivation behind making national space laws; and (III) the need for national space legislation. The paper concludes with some recommendations with regards to the conceivable future direction for national space legislation, in particular space empowered sub-areas for countries.

Keywords: International conventions, national legislation, space faring nation, space law.

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Authors: Abu Bakar Sedek Abdul Jamak, Rohani Salleh, Subarna Sivapalan, Azrai Abdullah

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This research focuses on micro-enterprise of Malaysian Malays that are involved in very small-scaled business activities. Among them include food stall and burger stall operators, night market hawkers, grocery store operators as well as construction and small service activities works. The study seeks to explore why some micro-entrepreneurs still lag in entrepreneurship and what needs to be rectified. This quantitative study is conducted on 173 Malay micro-enterprise owners (MEOs) and 58 Malay failed microenterprise owners (FMEOs) involved in all range of businesses throughout the state of Perak, Malaysia. The main aims are to identify the gaps between the failed micro-enterprise owners (FMEOs) and existing micro-enterprise owners (MEOs) and the problems faced among FMEOs. The results reveal that the MEOs had strong motivations and better marketing approaches as compared to FMEOs. Furthermore, the FMEOs failed in the business ventures mainly due to lack of management, sales and marketing skills and poor competitive abilities to keep up with rivals.

Keywords: Micro-enterprises, Malays, entrepreneurship, Malaysia

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Authors: Karim Heidari

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Semantic Web Technologies enable machines to interpret data published in a machine-interpretable form on the web. At the present time, only human beings are able to understand the product information published online. The emerging semantic Web technologies have the potential to deeply influence the further development of the Internet Economy. In this paper we propose a scenario based research approach to predict the effects of these new technologies on electronic markets and business models of traders and intermediaries and customers. Over 300 million searches are conducted everyday on the Internet by people trying to find what they need. A majority of these searches are in the domain of consumer ecommerce, where a web user is looking for something to buy. This represents a huge cost in terms of people hours and an enormous drain of resources. Agent enabled semantic search will have a dramatic impact on the precision of these searches. It will reduce and possibly eliminate information asymmetry where a better informed buyer gets the best value. By impacting this key determinant of market prices semantic web will foster the evolution of different business and economic models. We submit that there is a need for developing these futuristic models based on our current understanding of e-commerce models and nascent semantic web technologies. We believe these business models will encourage mainstream web developers and businesses to join the “semantic web revolution."

Keywords: E-Commerce, E-Business, Semantic Web, XML.

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Authors: M. Othman, N. Bhuiyan, G. J. Gouw

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In today-s competitive market, most companies develop manufacturing systems that can help in cost reduction and maximum quality. Human issues are an important part of manufacturing systems, yet most companies ignore their effects on production performance. This paper aims to developing an integrated workforce planning system that incorporates the human being. Therefore, a multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is developed to determine the amount of hiring, firing, training, overtime for each worker type. This paper considers a workforce planning model including human aspects such as skills, training, workers- personalities, capacity, motivation, and learning rates. This model helps to minimize the hiring, firing, training and overtime costs, and maximize the workers- performance. The results indicate that the workers- differences should be considered in workforce scheduling to generate realistic plans with minimum costs. This paper also investigates the effects of human learning rates on the performance of the production systems.

Keywords: Human Factors, Learning Curves, Workers' Differences, Workforce Scheduling

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Authors: Florin Pop

Abstract:

Simulation is a very powerful method used for highperformance and high-quality design in distributed system, and now maybe the only one, considering the heterogeneity, complexity and cost of distributed systems. In Grid environments, foe example, it is hard and even impossible to perform scheduler performance evaluation in a repeatable and controllable manner as resources and users are distributed across multiple organizations with their own policies. In addition, Grid test-beds are limited and creating an adequately-sized test-bed is expensive and time consuming. Scalability, reliability and fault-tolerance become important requirements for distributed systems in order to support distributed computation. A distributed system with such characteristics is called dependable. Large environments, like Cloud, offer unique advantages, such as low cost, dependability and satisfy QoS for all users. Resource management in large environments address performant scheduling algorithm guided by QoS constrains. This paper presents the performance evaluation of scheduling heuristics guided by different optimization criteria. The algorithms for distributed scheduling are analyzed in order to satisfy users constrains considering in the same time independent capabilities of resources. This analysis acts like a profiling step for algorithm calibration. The performance evaluation is based on simulation. The simulator is MONARC, a powerful tool for large scale distributed systems simulation. The novelty of this paper consists in synthetic analysis results that offer guidelines for scheduler service configuration and sustain the empirical-based decision. The results could be used in decisions regarding optimizations to existing Grid DAG Scheduling and for selecting the proper algorithm for DAG scheduling in various actual situations.

Keywords: Scheduling, Simulation, Performance Evaluation, QoS, Distributed Systems, MONARC

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Authors: Kuppusamy Singaravelloo, Zahra Kamiab

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This study explores the mediating effects of motivation in the relationship between human values and service quality. To examine the fundamental relationships among human values, motivation, and service quality, a Structural Equation Model (SEM) with a full mediation model was adopted. The model was designed and subsequently analyzed by utilizing the Partial Least Squares (PLS) procedure on data collected from a survey that yielded 936 usable questionnaires. The survey was sent to all 117 branches of two local commercial banks (CIMB and Maybank) operating in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Both banks ranked the highest in terms of asset size and market capitalization. The mediating role of motivation was examined in the relationship between four dimensions of human values and bank service quality, whereby human values initiate service quality. The results support the notion that employee motivation fully mediates the relationship between self-enhancement values and service quality in commercial banks. These results demonstrate the unpredictable role of the interaction structures of human values on bank service quality.

Keywords: Human values, service quality, mediation, motivation, commercial bank.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

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In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: Churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection.

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Authors: Laimona Sliburyte

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The ever increasing product diversity and competition on the market of goods and services has dictated the pace of growth in the number of advertisements. Despite their admittedly diminished effectiveness over the recent years, advertisements remain the favored method of sales promotion. Consequently, the challenge for an advertiser is to explore every possible avenue of making an advertisement more noticeable, attractive and impellent for consumers. One way to achieve this is through invoking celebrity endorsements. On the one hand, the use of a celebrity to endorse a product involves substantial costs, however, on the other hand, it does not immediately guarantee the success of an advertisement. The question of how celebrities can be used in advertising to the best advantage is therefore of utmost importance. Celebrity endorsements have become commonplace: empirical evidence indicates that approximately 20 to 25 per cent of advertisements feature some famous person as a product endorser. The popularity of celebrity endorsements demonstrates the relevance of the topic, especially in the context of the current global economic downturn, when companies are forced to save in order to survive, yet simultaneously to heavily invest in advertising and sales promotion. The issue of the effective use of celebrity endorsements also figures prominently in the academic discourse. The study presented below is thus aimed at exploring what qualities (characteristics) of a celebrity endorser have an impact on the ffectiveness of the advertisement in which he/she appears and how.

Keywords: Advertising, celebrity, celebrity endorsements, effectiveness of celebrity.

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Authors: Kyoko Tominaga

Abstract:

Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs), Social Enterprises and other actors play an important role in political decisions in governments at the international levels. Especially, such organizations’ and activists’ network in civil society is quite important to effect to the global politics. To solve the complex social problems in global era, diverse actors should corporate each other. Moreover, network of protesters is also contributes to diffuse tactics, information and other resources of social movements.

Based on the findings from the study of International Trade Fairs (ITFs), the author analyzes the network of activists in anti-globalism movement. This research focuses the transition of 54 activists’ whole network in the “protest event” against 2008 G8 summit in Japan. Their network is examined at the three periods: Before protest event phase, during protest event phase and after event phase. A mixed method is used in this study: the author shows the hypothesis from social network analysis and evaluates that with interview data analysis. This analysis gives the two results. Firstly, the more protesters participate to the various events during the protest event, the more they build the network. After that, active protesters keep their network as well. From interview data, we can understand that the active protesters can build their network and diffuse the information because they communicate with other participants and understand that diverse issues are related. This paper comes to same conclusion with previous researches: protest events activate the network among the political activists. However, some participants succeed to build their network, others do not. “Networked” activists are participated in the various events for short period of time and encourage the diffusion of information and tactics of social movements.

Keywords: Social Movement, Global Justice Movement, Tactics, Diffusion.

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Authors: Lady Marianne E. Polinga, Candy C. Mercado, Camilo A. Polinga

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This study was an investigation on the suitability of Lahar/HDPE composite as a primary material for low-cost smallscale biogas digesters. While sources of raw materials for biogas are abundant in the Philippines, cost of the technology has made the widespread utilization of this resource an indefinite proposition. Aside from capital economics, another problem arises with space requirements of current digester designs. These problems may be simultaneously addressed by fabricating digesters on a smaller, household scale to reach a wider market, and to use materials that may accommodate optimization of overall design and fabrication cost without sacrificing operational efficiency. This study involved actual fabrication of the Lahar/HDPE composite at varying composition and geometry, subsequent mechanical and thermal characterization, and implementation of Statistical Analysis to find intrinsic relationships between variables. From the results, Lahar/HDPE composite was found to be feasible for use as digester material from both mechanical and economic standpoints. 

Keywords: Biogas digester, Composite, High density polyethylene, Lahar.

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Authors: M. A. Spielmann, L. Schebek

Abstract:

In order to reach the long-term national climate goals of the German government for the building sector, substantial energetic measures have to be executed. Historically, those measures were primarily energetic efficiency measures at the buildings’ shells. Advanced technologies for the on-site generation of heat (or other types of energy) often are not feasible at this small spatial scale of a single building. Therefore, the present approach uses the spatially larger dimension of a quarter. The main focus of the present paper is the long-term economic-ecological assessment of available decentralized heat-generating (CHP power plants and electrical heat pumps) technologies at the quarter level for the German unrefurbished residential buildings. Three distinct terms have to be described methodologically: i) Quarter approach, ii) Economic assessment, iii) Ecological assessment. The quarter approach is used to enable synergies and scaling effects over a single-building. For the present study, generic quarters that are differentiated according to significant parameters concerning their heat demand are used. The core differentiation of those quarters is made by the construction time period of the buildings. The economic assessment as the second crucial parameter is executed with the following structure: Full costs are quantized for each technology combination and quarter. The investment costs are analyzed on an annual basis and are modeled with the acquisition of debt. Annuity loans are assumed. Consequently, for each generic quarter, an optimal technology combination for decentralized heat generation is provided in each year of the temporal boundaries (2016-2050). The ecological assessment elaborates for each technology combination and each quarter a Life Cycle assessment. The measured impact category hereby is GWP 100. The technology combinations for heat production can be therefore compared against each other concerning their long-term climatic impacts. Core results of the approach can be differentiated to an economic and ecological dimension. With an annual resolution, the investment and running costs of different energetic technology combinations are quantified. For each quarter an optimal technology combination for local heat supply and/or energetic refurbishment of the buildings within the quarter is provided. Coherently to the economic assessment, the climatic impacts of the technology combinations are quantized and compared against each other.

Keywords: Building sector, heat, LCA, quarter level, systemic approach.

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Authors: Harri Jalonen

Abstract:

Faced with social and health system capacity constraints and rising and changing demand for welfare services, governments and welfare providers are increasingly relying on innovation to help support and enhance services. However, the evidence reported by several studies indicates that the realization of that potential is not an easy task. Innovations can be deemed inherently complex to implement and operate, because many of them involve a combination of technological and organizational renewal within an environment featuring a diversity of stakeholders. Many public welfare service innovations are markedly systemic in their nature, which means that they emerge from, and must address, the complex interplay between political, administrative, technological, institutional and legal issues. This paper suggests that stakeholders dealing with systemic innovation in welfare services must deal with ambiguous and incomplete information in circumstances of uncertainty. Employing a literature review methodology and case study, this paper identifies, categorizes and discusses different aspects of the uncertainty of systemic innovation in public welfare services, and argues that uncertainty can be classified into eight categories: technological uncertainty, market uncertainty, regulatory/institutional uncertainty, social/political uncertainty, acceptance/legitimacy uncertainty, managerial uncertainty, timing uncertainty and consequence uncertainty.

Keywords: Systemic innovation, uncertainty, welfare services

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Authors: Eva Nedeliakova, Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj

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This article describes the results of research focused on quality of railway freight transport services. Improvement of these services has a crucial importance in customer considering on the future use of railway transport. Processes filling the customer demands and output quality assessment were defined as a part of the research. In this contribution is introduced the map of quality planning and the algorithm of applied methodology. It characterizes a model which takes into account characters of transportation with linking a perception services quality in ordinary and extraordinary operation. Despite the fact that rail freight transport has its solid position in the transport market, lots of carriers worldwide have been experiencing a stagnation for a couple of years. Therefore, specific results of the research have a significant importance and belong to numerous initiatives aimed to develop and support railway transport not only by creating a single railway area or reducing noise but also by promoting railway services. This contribution is focused also on the application of dynamic quality models which represent an innovative method of evaluation quality services. Through this conception, time factor, expected, and perceived quality in each moment of the transportation process can be taken into account.

Keywords: Quality, railway, transport, service.

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Authors: Bahar Urhan Torun, Havva Nur Tarakcı

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At the present time, online marketing has become the common target of small and full-scale organizations. Today’s humanbeing who has to spend most of their time in front of the computer because of his job, prefers to socialize by internet due to the easy access to technology. So online marketing area expands day by day. All business organizations from the smallest to the biggest are in a race in order to get a cut from the virtual market share in an extreme competitive environment. However these organizations which use the internet to reach more consumers cannot determine their target group accurately, so this is the biggest handicap of online marketing sales nowadays. The aim of this study is to determine some significant elements about need for communicating efficiently with the consumer on the internet on online marketing. The strategies that can be used in order to increase sales and the limitations of virtual environment where cannot be communicated with the consumer face to face are argued in this study’s scope. As a consequence it is thought that to study on this subject because of lacking and also being limited efficiency of researches and outputs. Within this scope suggesting some proposals about how to communicate efficiently with the consumer and also offering the consumers’ demands efficiently is the essential objective of this study.

Keywords: Communication, competition, consumer, online marketing.

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Authors: A. Tannai, V. Herbert, C. Rufin-Soler

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the 21st century, we have been observing in some seaside resorts aging demography, combined with an increase in second homes. These seaside resorts are said to have become places undergoing profound changes, leading to hybridization of functions (personal services, health, residential, etc.) and practices. All of these issues are part of the challenges of silver tourism, which stems from the silver economy. The Hauts-de-France region is made up of numerous seaside resorts that have a significant proportion of second homes in their real estate stock. The seaside resorts have tourist offers based on sports and leisure activities. They also offer a suitable environment for the installation of this category of the population. This set of attractive criteria in the choice of installation in seaside resorts is likely to be replaced by personal and health services due to the advanced age of the population. The resorts of Le Touquet Paris-Plage, Bray-Dunes, Neufchâtel-Hardelot and Le Crotoy seem to be evolving towards other functions of residential resorts, as opposed to seaside resorts This paper will be an opportunity to present the results of the surveys we conducted in 4 seaside resorts in the Hauts-de-France region, where more than 420 retired secondary residents were questioned. The results show that nearly 90% of retirees spend their time in their second home at any time of the year. The criteria that lead them there are school vacations and the weather. More than 40% of them have been living there for more than 20 years. The reasons for the installations are the living environment (83%) and the quality of life (79%). Their activities are walking and strolling, as well as sports. More than 99% of the respondents do not take into account the health service offers. Personal services are also little taken into account - around 60% of respondents say they do not know whether personal services exist in the resort. 80% of respondents answer that their grandchildren benefit from activities organized by the commune and the tourist offices during their stay. To conclude, the influx of retired secondary residents will not lead to a change in the functions of the seaside resorts. Their classic tourist offers - leisure and sports activities, the environment - will remain the attractive criteria of the seaside resorts.  The results of the study prove that personal services and health services are not the first choice criteria in the installation of retired secondary residents, quite the contrary. We can even complete that retirees in secondary residences are demanding and concerned about living in a calm, safe and clean environment and quality of life.

Keywords: Health services, people care, second home, seniors, silver tourism, tourism, tourist functions.

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

Abstract:

This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization.

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Authors: Y. R. Li, Y. Y. Wang

Abstract:

After allowing direct flights from Mainland China to Taiwan, Chinese tourists increased according to Tourism Bureaustatistics. There are from 0.19 to 2 million tourists from 2008 to 2011. Mainland China has become the main source of Taiwan developing tourism industry. Taiwanese government should know more about comments from Chinese tourists to Taiwan in order toproperly market Taiwan tourism and enhance the overall quality of tourism. In order to understand Chinese visitors’ comments, this study adopts content analysis to analyze electronic word-of-mouth on Web. This study collects 375 blog articles of Chinese tourists from Ctrip.com as a database during 2009 to 2011. Through the qualitative data analysis the traveling destination imagesis divided into seven dimensions, such as senic spots, shopping, food and beverages, accommodations, transportation, festivals and recreation activities. Finally, this study proposes some practical managerial implication to know both positive and negative images of the seven dimensions from Chinese tourists, providing marketing strategies and suggestions to traveling agency industry.

Keywords: Destination Image, Content Analysis, Electronic Word-of-Mouth.

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Authors: U. Waqas, M. F. Ahmed, A. Mehmood, M. A. Rashid

Abstract:

In geophysical exploration surveys, the quality of acquired data holds significant importance before executing the data processing and interpretation phases. In this study, 2D seismic reflection survey data of Fort Abbas area, Cholistan Desert, Pakistan was taken as test case in order to assess its quality on statistical bases by using normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cronbach’s alpha test (α) and null hypothesis tests (t-test and F-test). The analysis challenged the quality of the acquired data and highlighted the significant errors in the acquired database. It is proven that the study area is plain, tectonically least affected and rich in oil and gas reserves. However, subsurface 3D modeling and contouring by using acquired database revealed high degrees of structural complexities and intense folding. The NRMSE had highest percentage of residuals between the estimated and predicted cases. The outcomes of hypothesis testing also proved the biasness and erraticness of the acquired database. Low estimated value of alpha (α) in Cronbach’s alpha test confirmed poor reliability of acquired database. A very low quality of acquired database needs excessive static correction or in some cases, reacquisition of data is also suggested which is most of the time not feasible on economic grounds. The outcomes of this study could be used to assess the quality of large databases and to further utilize as a guideline to establish database quality assessment models to make much more informed decisions in hydrocarbon exploration field.

Keywords: Data quality, null hypothesis, seismic lines, seismic reflection survey.

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