Search results for: Software Estimation

Authors: Muhammad Farid Shaari, Zahurin Samad

Abstract:

This paper presents the design, development and characterization of contractile water jet thruster (CWJT) for mini underwater robot. Instead of electric motor, this CWJT utilizes the Ionic Polymer Metal Composite (IPMC) as the actuator to generate the water jet. The main focus of this paper is to analyze the conceptual design of the proposed CWJT which would determine the thrust force value, jet flow behavior and actuator’s stress. Those thrust force and jet flow studies were carried out using Matlab/Simscape simulation software. The actuator stress had been analyzed using COSMOS simulation software. The results showed that there was no significant change for jet velocity at variable cross sectional nozzle area. However, a significant change was detected for jet velocity at different nozzle cross sectional area ratio which was up to 37%. The generated thrust force has proportional relation to the nozzle cross sectional area.

Keywords: Contractile water jet thruster, IPMC actuator, Thrust force.

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Authors: Ki-Young Kim, Jae-Ho Lim, Deok-Min Kim, Seok-Yoon Kim

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Average current analysis checking the impact of current flow is very important to guarantee the reliability of semiconductor systems. As semiconductor process technologies improve, the coupling capacitance often become bigger than self capacitances. In this paper, we propose an analytic technique for analyzing average current on interconnects in multi-conductor structures. The proposed technique has shown to yield the acceptable errors compared to HSPICE results while providing computational efficiency.

Keywords: current moment, interconnect modeling, reliability analysis, worst-case switching

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Authors: Shayan Rezvanigilkolaei, Shayesteh Vefaghnematollahi

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Electrical impedance tomography is a non-invasive medical imaging technique suitable for medical applications. This paper describes an electrical impedance tomography device with the ability to navigate a robotic arm to manipulate a target object. The design of the device includes various hardware and software sections to perform medical imaging and control the robotic arm. In its hardware section an image is formed by 16 electrodes which are located around a container. This image is used to navigate a 3DOF robotic arm to reach the exact location of the target object. The data set to form the impedance imaging is obtained by having repeated current injections and voltage measurements between all electrode pairs. After performing the necessary calculations to obtain the impedance, information is transmitted to the computer. This data is fed and then executed in MATLAB which is interfaced with EIDORS (Electrical Impedance Tomography Reconstruction Software) to reconstruct the image based on the acquired data. In the next step, the coordinates of the center of the target object are calculated by image processing toolbox of MATLAB (IPT). Finally, these coordinates are used to calculate the angles of each joint of the robotic arm. The robotic arm moves to the desired tissue with the user command.

Keywords: Electrical impedance tomography, EIT, Surgeon robot, image processing of Electrical impedance tomography.

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Authors: Meng Hu, Lili Wang

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In this paper, based on the estimation of the Cauchy matrix of linear impulsive differential equations, by using Banach fixed point theorem and Gronwall-Bellman-s inequality, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solution for Cohen-Grossberg shunting inhibitory cellular neural networks (SICNNs) with continuously distributed delays and impulses. An example is given to illustrate the main results.

Keywords: Almost periodic solution, exponential stability, neural networks, impulses.

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Authors: Mohammed Salahat, Steve Wade

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This paper presents an application of a “Systematic Soft Domain Driven Design Framework” as a soft systems approach to domain-driven design of information systems development. The framework use SSM as a guiding methodology within which we have embedded a sequence of design tasks based on the UML leading to the implementation of a software system using the Naked Objects framework. This framework have been used in action research projects that have involved the investigation and modelling of business processes using object-oriented domain models and the implementation of software systems based on those domain models. Within this framework, Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is used as a guiding methodology to explore the problem situation and to develop the domain model using UML for the given business domain. The framework is proposed and evaluated in our previous works, and a real case study “Information Retrieval System for academic research” is used, in this paper, to show further practice and evaluation of the framework in different business domain. We argue that there are advantages from combining and using techniques from different methodologies in this way for business domain modelling. The framework is overviewed and justified as multimethodology using Mingers multimethodology ideas.

Keywords: SSM, UML, domain-driven design, soft domaindriven design, naked objects, soft language, information retrieval, multimethodology.

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Authors: H. Ozbasaran

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IPN and IPE sections, which are commonly used European I shapes, are widely used in steel structures as cantilever beams to support overhangs. A considerable number of studies exist on calculating lateral torsional buckling load of I sections. However, most of them provide series solutions or complex closed-form equations. In this paper, a simple equation is presented to calculate lateral torsional buckling load of IPN and IPE section cantilever beams. First, differential equation of lateral torsional buckling is solved numerically for various loading cases. Then a parametric study is conducted on results to present an equation for lateral torsional buckling load of European IPN and IPE beams. Finally, results obtained by presented equation are compared to differential equation solutions and finite element model results. ABAQUS software is utilized to generate finite element models of beams. It is seen that the results obtained from presented equation coincide with differential equation solutions and ABAQUS software results. It can be suggested that presented formula can be safely used to calculate critical lateral torsional buckling load of European IPN and IPE section cantilevers.

Keywords: Cantilever, IPN, IPE, lateral torsional buckling

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Authors: H. El Khattabi, A. Tamtaoui, D. Aboutajdine

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In this paper, we present the video quality measure estimation via a neural network. This latter predicts MOS (mean opinion score) by providing height parameters extracted from original and coded videos. The eight parameters that are used are: the average of DFT differences, the standard deviation of DFT differences, the average of DCT differences, the standard deviation of DCT differences, the variance of energy of color, the luminance Y, the chrominance U and the chrominance V. We chose Euclidean Distance to make comparison between the calculated and estimated output.

Keywords: video, neural network MLP, subjective quality, DCT, DFT, Retropropagation

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Authors: C. Ardil

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In this study, a model, together with a software tool that implements it, has been developed to determine the performance ratings of employees in an organization operating in the information technology sector using the indicators obtained from employees' online study data. Weighted Sum (WS) Method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method based on multidimensional decision making approach were used in the study. WS and TOPSIS methods provide multidimensional decision making (MDDM) methods that allow all dimensions to be evaluated together considering specific weights, allowing employees to objectively evaluate the problem of online performance tracking. The application of WS and TOPSIS mathematical methods, which can combine alternatives with a large number of dimensions and reach simultaneous solution, has been implemented through an online performance tracking software. In the application of WS and TOPSIS methods, objective dimension weights were calculated by using entropy information (EI) and standard deviation (SD) methods from the data obtained by employees' online performance tracking method, decision matrix was formed by using performance scores for each employee, and a single performance score was calculated for each employee. Based on the calculated performance score, employees were given a performance evaluation decision. The results of Pareto set evidence and comparative mathematical analysis validate that employees' performance preference rankings in WS and TOPSIS methods are closely related. This suggests the compatibility, applicability, and validity of the proposed method to the MDDM problems in which a large number of alternative and dimension types are taken into account. With this study, an objective, realistic, feasible and understandable mathematical method, together with a software tool that implements it has been demonstrated. This is considered to be preferable because of the subjectivity, limitations and high cost of the methods traditionally used in the measurement and performance appraisal in the information technology sector.

Keywords: Weighted sum, entropy ınformation, standard deviation, online performance tracking, performance evaluation, performance management, multidimensional decision making.

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Authors: Ling-Mei Wu, Jia-Shing Sheu, Wei-Cian Jheng, Ying-Tung Hsiao

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This paper develops a pedometer with a three-axis acceleration sensor that can be placed with any angle. The proposed pedometer measures the number of steps while users walk, jog or run. It can be worn on users’ waistband or placed within pocket or backpack. The work address to improve on the general pedometers, which can only be used in a single direction or can only count of steps without the continuous exercise judgment mechanism. Finally, experimental results confirm the superior performance of the proposed pedometer.

Keywords: Accelerometer sensor, Angle estimation, Pedometer.

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Authors: Alexander B. Bichkov, Valery V. Smirnov

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Total cross section of helium atom photo-ionization by weak short pulse is calculated using the variant of trajectory method, developed in our earlier work. The method enables simple estimation of total ionization probability (or cross section) without integration of differential one.

Keywords: Evaluation of Photo-Ionization, Helium, Trajectory Method

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Authors: Benedek Kovacs, Janos Toth

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Solutions are proposed for the central problem of estimating the reaction rate coefficients in homogeneous kinetics. The first is based upon the fact that the right hand side of a kinetic differential equation is linear in the rate constants, whereas the second one uses the technique of neural networks. This second one is discussed deeply and its advantages, disadvantages and conditions of applicability are analyzed in the mirror of the first one. Numerical analysis carried out on practical models using simulated data, and our programs written in Mathematica.

Keywords: Neural networks, parameter estimation, linear regression, kinetic models, reaction rate coefficients.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Ayatollahzadeh Shirazi, Pooya Jaferian, Golnaz Elahi, Hamid Baghi, Babak Sadeghian

Abstract:

The world is moving rapidly toward the deployment of information and communication systems. Nowadays, computing systems with their fast growth are found everywhere and one of the main challenges for these systems is increasing attacks and security threats against them. Thus, capturing, analyzing and verifying security requirements becomes a very important activity in development process of computing systems, specially in developing systems such as banking, military and e-business systems. For developing every system, a process model which includes a process, methods and tools is chosen. The Rational Unified Process (RUP) is one of the most popular and complete process models which is used by developers in recent years. This process model should be extended to be used in developing secure software systems. In this paper, the Requirement Discipline of RUP is extended to improve RUP for developing secure software systems. These proposed extensions are adding and integrating a number of Activities, Roles, and Artifacts to RUP in order to capture, document and model threats and security requirements of system. These extensions introduce a group of clear and stepwise activities to developers. By following these activities, developers assure that security requirements are captured and modeled. These models are used in design, implementation and test activitie

Keywords:

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Authors: Daniela I. Borissova, Ivan C. Mustakerov, Evgeni D. Bantutov

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Nowadays the devices of night vision are widely used both for military and civil applications. The variety of night vision applications require a variety of the night vision devices designs. A web-based architecture of a software system for design assessment before producing of night vision devices is developed. The proposed architecture of the web-based system is based on the application of a mathematical model for designing of night vision devices. An algorithm with two components – for iterative design and for intelligent design is developed and integrated into system architecture. The iterative component suggests compatible modules combinations to choose from. The intelligent component provides compatible combinations of modules  satisfying given user requirements to device parameters. The proposed web-based architecture of a system for design assessment of night vision devices is tested via a prototype of the system. The testing showed the applicability of both iterative and intelligent components of algorithm. 

Keywords: Night vision devices, design modeling, software architecture, web-based system.

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Authors: Mikael Soini, Kari Björn

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Metropolia University of Applied Sciences (MUAS) Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Degree Programme provides full-time Bachelor-level undergraduate studies. ICT Degree Programme has seven different major options; this paper focuses on Health Technology. In Health Technology, a significant curriculum change in 2014 enabled transition from fragmented curriculum including dozens of courses to a new integrated curriculum built around three 30 ECTS themes. This paper focuses especially on the second theme called Customer Oriented Software Applications. From students’ point of view, the goal of this theme is to get familiar with existing health related ICT solutions and systems, understand business around health technology, recognize social and healthcare operating principles and services, and identify customers and users and their special needs and perspectives. This also acts as a background for health related web application development. Built web application is tested, developed and evaluated with real users utilizing versatile user centred development methods. This paper presents experiences obtained from the first implementation of Customer Oriented Software Applications theme. Student feedback was gathered with two questionnaires, one in the middle of the theme and other at the end of the theme. Questionnaires had qualitative and quantitative parts. Similar questionnaire was implemented in the first theme; this paper evaluates how the theme-based integrated curriculum has progressed in Health Technology major by comparing results between theme 1 and 2. In general, students were satisfied for the implementation, timing and synchronization of the courses, and the amount of work. However there is still room for development. Student feedback and teachers’ observations have been and will be used to develop the content and operating principles of the themes and whole curriculum.

Keywords: Engineering education, integrated and theme-based curriculum, learning experience, student centred learning.

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Authors: Lenka Techniková, Maroš Tunák, Jiří Janáček

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This work deals with the determination and comparison of pill patterns in 2 sets of fabric samples which differ in way of pill creation. The first set contains fabric samples with the pills created by simulation on a Martindale abrasion machine, while pills in the second set originated during normal wearing and maintenance. The goal of the study is to determine whether the pattern of the fabric pills created by simulation is the same as the pattern of naturally occurring pills. The system of determination and comparison of the pills is based on image processing and spatial data analysis tools. Firstly, 3D reconstruction of the fabric surfaces with the pills is realized with using a gradient fields method. The gradient fields method creates a 3D fabric surface from a set of 4 images. Thereafter, the pills are detected in 3D fabric surfaces using image-processing tools in the MATLAB software. Determination and comparison of the pills patterns of two sets of fabric samples is based on spatial data analysis using tools in R software.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction of the surface, image analysis tools, distribution of the pills, spatial data analysis tools.

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Authors: M. D. Prokhorov, V. I. Ponomarenko, A. S. Karavaev, A. R. Kiselev, V. I. Gridnev

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Synchronization between the slow oscillations of heart rate and blood pressure having in humans a basic frequency close to 0.1 Hz is investigated. A method is proposed for quantitative estimation of synchronization between these oscillating processes based on calculation of relative time of phase synchronization of oscillations. It is shown that healthy subjects exhibit in average substantially longer epochs of synchronization between the slow oscillations in heart rate and blood pressure than patients after acute myocardial infarction

Keywords: Cardiovascular system, slow oscillating processes, synchronization.

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Authors: Sudipta Majumdar, Harish Parthasarathy

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In this paper, a wavelet based method is proposed to identify the constant coefficients of a second order linear system and is compared with the least squares method. The proposed method shows improved accuracy of parameter estimation as compared to the least squares method. Additionally, it has the advantage of smaller data requirement and storage requirement as compared to the least squares method.

Keywords: Least squares method, linear system, system identification, wavelet transform.

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Authors: P. Abhishesh, B. S. Ryuh, Y. S. Oh, H. J. Moon, R. Akanksha

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This paper discusses about the conceptual design and development of the control system software using Programmable logic controller (PLC) for autonomous driving and agricultural operations of Multipurpose Agricultural Robot Platform (MARP). Based on given initial conditions by field analysis and desired agricultural operations, the structural design development of MARP is done using modelling and analysis tool. PLC, being robust and easy to use, has been used to design the autonomous control system of robot platform for desired parameters. The robot is capable of performing autonomous driving and three automatic agricultural operations, viz. hilling, mulching, and sowing of seeds in the respective order. The input received from various sensors on the field is later transmitted to the controller via ZigBee network to make the changes in the control program to get desired field output. The research is conducted to provide assistance to farmers by reducing labor hours for agricultural activities by implementing automation. This study will provide an alternative to the existing systems with machineries attached behind tractors and rigorous manual operations on agricultural field at effective cost.

Keywords: Agricultural operations, autonomous driving, MARP, PLC.

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Authors: C. C. Liang

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MSN used to be the most popular application for communicating among social networks, but Facebook chat is now the most popular. Facebook and MSN have similar characteristics, including usefulness, ease-of-use, and a similar function, which is the exchanging of information with friends. Facebook outperforms MSN in both of these areas. However, the adoption of Facebook and abandonment of MSN have occurred for other reasons. Functions can be improved, but users’ willingness to use does not just depend on functionality. Flow status has been established to be crucial to users’ adoption of cyber applications and to affects users’ adoption of software applications. If users experience flow in using software application, they will enjoy using it frequently, and even change their preferred application from an old to this new one. However, no investigation has examined choice behavior related to switching from Facebook to MSN based on a consideration of flow experiences and functions. This investigation discusses the flow experiences and functions of social-networking applications. Flow experience is found to affect perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness; perceived ease of use influences information ex-change with friends, and perceived usefulness; information exchange influences perceived usefulness, but information exchange has no effect on flow experience.

Keywords: Consumer behavior, social media, technology acceptance model.

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Authors: Masoud Mahdavi

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The use of sloping lands is increasing due to the reduction of suitable lands for the construction of buildings. In the design and construction of buildings on sloping lands, the foundation has special loading conditions that require the designer and executor to use the slopped foundation. The creation of underground cavities, including urban and subway tunnels, sewers, urban facilities, etc., inside the ground, causes the behavior of the foundation to be unknown. In the present study, using Abacus software, a 45-degree stepped foundation on the ground is designed. The foundations are placed on the ground in a cohesive (no-hole) manner with circular cavities that show the effect of increasing the cross-sectional area of ​​the underground cavities on the foundation's performance. The Kobe earthquake struck the foundation and ground for two seconds. The underground cavities have a circular cross-sectional area with a radius of 5 m, which is located at a depth of 22.54 m above the ground. The results showed that as the number of underground cavities increased, von Mises stress (in the vertical direction) increased. With the increase in the number of underground cavities, the plastic strain on the ground has increased. Also, with the increase in the number of underground cavities, the change in location and speed in the foundation has increased.

Keywords: Stepped foundation, sloping ground, Kobe earthquake, Abaqus software, underground excavations.

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Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

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We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of a simulation study. 

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood.

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Authors: H. Bevrani, N. Najafi

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This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Beta-binomial Distribution, LPLcriteria, quadratic loss function.

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Authors: Radomir Perzina, Jaroslav Ramik

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The Analytic Hierarchy Process is frequently used approach for solving decision making problems. There exists wide range of software programs utilizing that approach. Their main disadvantage is that they are relatively expensive and missing intermediate calculations. This work introduces a Microsoft Excel add-in called DAME – Decision Analysis Module for Excel. Comparing to other computer programs DAME is free, can work with scenarios or multiple decision makers and displays intermediate calculations. Users can structure their decision models into three levels – scenarios/users, criteria and variants. Items on all levels can be evaluated either by weights or pair-wise comparisons. There are provided three different methods for the evaluation of the weights of criteria, the variants as well as the scenarios – Saaty’s Method, Geometric Mean Method and Fuller’s Triangle Method. Multiplicative and additive syntheses are supported. The proposed software package is demonstrated on couple of illustrating examples of real life decision problems.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, multi-criteria decision making, pair-wise comparisons, Microsoft Excel, Scenarios.

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Authors: Tien-Tung Chung, Chin-Te Lin, Chung-Yun Lee, Kuang-Chao Fan, Shou-Heng Chen

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This paper studies the optimum design for reducing optical loss of an 8x8 mechanical type optical switch due to the temperature change. The 8x8 optical switch is composed of a base, 8 input fibers, 8 output fibers, 3 fixed mirrors and 17 movable mirrors. First, an innovative switch configuration is proposed with thermal-compensated design. Most mechanical type optical switches have a disadvantage that their precision and accuracy are influenced by the ambient temperature. Therefore, the thermal-compensated design is to deal with this situation by using materials with different thermal expansion coefficients (α). Second, a parametric modeling program is developed to generate solid models for finite element analysis, and the thermal and structural behaviors of the switch are analyzed. Finally, an integrated optimum design program, combining Autodesk Inventor Professional software, finite element analysis software, and genetic algorithms, is developed for improving the thermal behaviors that the optical loss of the switch is reduced. By changing design parameters of the switch in the integrated design program, the final optimum design that satisfies the design constraints and specifications can be found.

Keywords: Optical switch, finite element analysis, thermal-compensated design, optimum design.

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Authors: Jehad Al Dallal, Paul Sorenson

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An application framework provides a reusable design and implementation for a family of software systems. Application developers extend the framework to build their particular applications using hooks. Hooks are the places identified to show how to use and customize the framework. Hooks define the Framework Interface Classes (FICs) and the specifications of their methods. As part of the development life cycle, it is required to test the implementations of the FICs. Building a testing model to express the behavior of a class is an essential step for the generation of the class-based test cases. The testing model has to be consistent with the specifications provided for the hooks. State-based models consisting of states and transitions are testing models well suited to objectoriented software. Typically, hand-construction of a state-based model of a class behavior is expensive, error-prone, and may result in constructing an inconsistent model with the specifications of the class methods, which misleads verification results. In this paper, a technique is introduced to automatically synthesize a state-based testing model for FICs using the specifications provided for the hooks. A tool that supports the proposed technique is introduced.

Keywords: Framework interface classes, hooks, state-basedtesting, testing model.

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Authors: Alireza Changizi, Arash Rezaei, Jamal Muhammad, Jyrki Latokartano, Minna Lanz

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Offline programming (OLP) is a new method in robot programming which is used widely in the industry nowadays which is a simulation base method that can produce the robot codes for motion according to virtual world in the simulation software. In this project Delmia v5 is used as simulation software. First the work cell component was modelled by Catia v5 and all of them was imported to a process file in Delmia and placed roughly to form the virtual work cell. Then robot was added to the work cell from the Delmia library. Work cell was calibrated corresponding to real world work cell to have accurate code. Tool calibration is the first step of calibration scheme and then work cell equipment can be calibrated using 6 point calibration method. Finally generated code needs to be reformed to match related controller code instruction. At the last stage IO were set to accomplish robots cooperation and make their motion synchronized. The pros and cons also will be discussed to clarify the presented results show the feasibility of the method and its effect on production line efficiency. Finally the positive and negative points of the implementation will be discussed.

Keywords: Component, robotic, automated, production, offline programming, CAD.

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Authors: Rafayel K. Kostanyan

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The opportunities of use of metallic magnesium as a generator of hydrogen gas, as well as thermal and electric energy is presented in the paper. Various schemes of magnesium application are discussed and power characteristics of corresponding devices are presented. Economic estimation of hydrogen price obtained by different methods is made, including the use of magnesium as a source of hydrogen for transportation in comparison with gasoline. Details and prospects of our new inexpensive technology of magnesium production from magnesium hydroxide and magnesium bearing rocks (which are available worldwide and in Armenia) are analyzed. It is estimated the threshold cost of Mg production at which application of this metal in power engineering is economically justified.

Keywords: Magnesium, power generation, production, renewable energy.

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Authors: Ziraguen O. Williams, Shield B. Lin, Fouad N. Matari, Leslie J. Quiocho

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Simulation for seated row exercise was a continued task to assist NASA in analyzing a one-dimensional vibration isolation and stabilization system for astronaut’s exercise platform. Feedback delay and signal noise were added to the simulation model. Simulation runs for this study were conducted in two software simulation tools, Trick and MBDyn, software simulation environments developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The exciter force in the simulation was calculated from motion capture of an exerciser during a seated aerobic row exercise. The simulation runs include passive control, active control using a Proportional, Integral, Derivative (PID) controller, and active control using a Piecewise Linear Integral Derivative (PWLID) controller. Output parameters include displacements of the exercise platform, the exerciser, and the counterweight; transmitted force to the wall of spacecraft; and actuator force to the platform. The simulation results showed excellent force reduction in the active controlled system compared to the passive controlled system, which showed less force reduction.

Keywords: Simulation, counterweight, exercise, vibration.

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Authors: Ibrahim S AlNomay, Alaa Jaber, Ghada AlNasser

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A learning management system (commonly abbreviated as LMS) is a software application for the administration, documentation, tracking, and reporting of training programs, classroom and online events, e-learning programs, and training content (Ellis 2009). (Hall 2003) defines an LMS as \"software that automates the administration of training events. All Learning Management Systems manage the log-in of registered users, manage course catalogs, record data from learners, and provide reports to management\". Evidence of the worldwide spread of e-learning in recent years is easy to obtain. In April 2003, no fewer than 66,000 fully online courses and 1,200 complete online programs were listed on the TeleCampus portal from TeleEducation (Paulsen 2003). In the report \" The US market in the Self-paced eLearning Products and Services:2010-2015 Forecast and Analysis\" The number of student taken classes exclusively online will be nearly equal (1% less) to the number taken classes exclusively in physical campuses. Number of student taken online course will increase from 1.37 million in 2010 to 3.86 million in 2015 in USA. In another report by The Sloan Consortium three-quarters of institutions report that the economic downturn has increased demand for online courses and programs.

Keywords: LMS, Interactive Materials, Exam Centers, Learning Outcomes

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

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This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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