Search results for: net present value method

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: Noura Boudiaf, Allaoua Chaoui

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One major difficulty that faces developers of concurrent and distributed software is analysis for concurrency based faults like deadlocks. Petri nets are used extensively in the verification of correctness of concurrent programs. ECATNets [2] are a category of algebraic Petri nets based on a sound combination of algebraic abstract types and high-level Petri nets. ECATNets have 'sound' and 'complete' semantics because of their integration in rewriting logic [12] and its programming language Maude [13]. Rewriting logic is considered as one of very powerful logics in terms of description, verification and programming of concurrent systems. We proposed in [4] a method for translating Ada-95 tasking programs to ECATNets formalism (Ada-ECATNet). In this paper, we show that ECATNets formalism provides a more compact translation for Ada programs compared to the other approaches based on simple Petri nets or Colored Petri nets (CPNs). Such translation doesn-t reduce only the size of program, but reduces also the number of program states. We show also, how this compact Ada-ECATNet may be reduced again by applying reduction rules on it. This double reduction of Ada-ECATNet permits a considerable minimization of the memory space and run time of corresponding Maude program.

Keywords: Ada tasking, ECATNets, Algebraic Petri Nets, Compact Representation, Analysis, Rewriting Logic, Maude.

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Authors: N. Manavizadeh, A. Dehghani, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

Mixed model assembly lines (MMAL) are a type of production line where a variety of product models similar in product characteristics are assembled. The effective design of these lines requires that schedule for assembling the different products is determined. In this paper we tried to fit the sequencing problem with the main characteristics of make to order (MTO) environment. The problem solved in this paper is a multiple objective sequencing problem in mixed model assembly lines sequencing using weighted Sum Method (WSM) using GAMS software for small problem and an effective GA for large scale problems because of the nature of NP-hardness of our problem and vast time consume to find the optimum solution in large problems. In this problem three practically important objectives are minimizing: total utility work, keeping a constant production rate variation, and minimizing earliness and tardiness cost which consider the priority of each customer and different due date which is a real situation in mixed model assembly lines and it is the first time we consider different attribute to prioritize the customers which help the company to reduce the cost of earliness and tardiness. This mechanism is a way to apply an advance available to promise (ATP) in mixed model assembly line sequencing which is the main contribution of this paper.

Keywords: Available to promise, Earliness & Tardiness, GA, Mixed-Model assembly line Sequencing.

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Authors: Y. A. Shapovalov, F. M. Gumerov, M. K. Nauryzbaev, S. V. Mazanov, R. A. Usmanov, A. V. Klinov, L. K. Safiullina, S. A. Soshin

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A flow-through installation was created and manufactured for the transesterification of triglycerides of fatty acids and production of biodiesel fuel under supercritical fluid conditions. Transesterification of rapeseed oil with ethanol was carried out according to two parameters: temperature and the ratio of alcohol/oil mixture at the constant pressure of 19 MPa. The kinetics of the yield of fatty acids ethyl esters (FAEE) was determined in the temperature range of 320-380 °C at the alcohol/oil molar ratio of 6:1-20:1. The content of the formed FAEE was determined by the method of correlation of the resulting biodiesel fuel by its kinematic viscosity. The maximum FAEE yield (about 90%) was obtained within 30 min at the ethanol/oil molar ratio of 12:1 and a temperature of 380 °C. When studying of transesterification of triglycerides, a kinetic model of an isothermal flow reactor was used. The reaction order implemented in the flow reactor has been determined. The first order of the reaction was confirmed by data on the conversion of FAEE during the reaction at different temperatures and the molar ratios of the initial reagents (ethanol/oil). Using the Arrhenius equation, the values of the effective constants of the transesterification reaction rate were calculated at different reaction temperatures. In addition, based on the experimental data, the activation energy and the pre-exponential factor of the transesterification reaction were determined.

Keywords: Biodiesel, fatty acid esters, supercritical fluid technology, transesterification.

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Authors: L. Ngowi, N. H. Mvungi

Abstract:

This paper critically examines the evolution of socio-technical systems theory, its practices, and challenges in system design and development. It examines concepts put forward by researchers focusing on the application of the theory in software engineering. There are various methods developed that use socio-technical concepts based on systems engineering without remarkable success. The main constraint is the large amount of data and inefficient techniques used in the application of the concepts in system engineering for developing time-bound systems and within a limited/controlled budget. This paper critically examines each of the methods, highlight bottlenecks and suggest the way forward. Since socio-technical systems theory only explains what to do, but not how doing it, hence engineers are not using the concept to save time, costs and reduce risks associated with new frameworks. Hence, a new framework, which can be considered as a practical approach is proposed that borrows concepts from soft systems method, agile systems development and object-oriented analysis and design to bridge the gap between theory and practice. The approach will enable the development of systems using socio-technical systems theory to attract/enable the system engineers/software developers to use socio-technical systems theory in building worthwhile information systems to avoid fragilities and hostilities in the work environment.

Keywords: Socio-technical systems, human centered design, software engineering, cognitive engineering, soft systems, systems engineering.

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Authors: Y. Deng, X. Li, C. Kwan, B. Raj, R. Stern

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The current speech interfaces in many military applications may be adequate for native speakers. However, the recognition rate drops quite a lot for non-native speakers (people with foreign accents). This is mainly because the nonnative speakers have large temporal and intra-phoneme variations when they pronounce the same words. This problem is also complicated by the presence of large environmental noise such as tank noise, helicopter noise, etc. In this paper, we proposed a novel continuous acoustic feature adaptation algorithm for on-line accent and environmental adaptation. Implemented by incremental singular value decomposition (SVD), the algorithm captures local acoustic variation and runs in real-time. This feature-based adaptation method is then integrated with conventional model-based maximum likelihood linear regression (MLLR) algorithm. Extensive experiments have been performed on the NATO non-native speech corpus with baseline acoustic model trained on native American English. The proposed feature-based adaptation algorithm improved the average recognition accuracy by 15%, while the MLLR model based adaptation achieved 11% improvement. The corresponding word error rate (WER) reduction was 25.8% and 2.73%, as compared to that without adaptation. The combined adaptation achieved overall recognition accuracy improvement of 29.5%, and WER reduction of 31.8%, as compared to that without adaptation.

Keywords: speaker adaptation; environment adaptation; robust speech recognition; SVD; non-native speech recognition

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Authors: Pradip Kumar Das

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Phenomenal growth of population and industry exploits the environment in varied ways. Consequently, the greenhouse effect and other allied problems are threatening mankind the world over. Protection and up gradation of environment have, therefore, become the prime necessity all of mankind for the sustainable development of environment. People in humbler walks of life including the corporate citizens have become aware of the impacts of environmental pollution. Governments of various nations have entered the picture with laws and regulations to correct and cure the effects of present and past violations of environmental practices and to obstruct future violations of good environmental disciplines. In this perspective, environmental audit directs verification and validation to ensure that the various environmental laws are complied with and adequate care has been taken towards environmental protection and preservation. The discipline of environmental audit has experienced expressive development throughout the world. It examines the positive and negative effects of the activities of an enterprise on environment and provides an in-depth study of the company processes any growth in realizing long-term strategic goals. Environmental audit helps corporations assess its achievement, correct deficiencies and reduce risk to the health and improving safety. Environmental audit being a strong management tool should be administered by industry for its own self-assessment. Developed countries all over the globe have gone ahead in environment quantification; but unfortunately, there is a lack of awareness about pollution and environmental hazards among the common people in India. In the light of this situation, the conceptual analysis of this study is concerned with the rationale of environmental audit on the industry and the society as a whole and highlights the emerging dimensions in the auditing theory and practices. A modest attempt has been made to throw light on the recent development in environmental audit in developing nations like India and the problems associated with the implementation of environmental audit. The conceptual study also reflects that despite different obstacles, environmental audit is becoming an increasing aspect within the corporate sectors in India and lastly, conclusions along with suggestions have been offered to improve the current scenario.

Keywords: Environmental audit, environmental hazards, environmental laws, environmental protection, environmental preservation.

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Authors: Kuyucu Helvacioglu Asli Deniz, Tektas Arzu

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European Union candidate status provides a strong motivation for decision-making in the candidate countries in shaping the regional development policy where there is an envisioned transfer of power from center to the periphery. The process of Europeanization anticipates the candidate countries configure their regional institutional templates in the context of the requirements of the European Union policies and introduces new instruments of incentive framework of enlargement to be employed in regional development schemes. It is observed that the contribution of the local actors to the decision making in the design of the allocation architectures enhances the efficiency of the funds and increases the positive effects of the projects funded under the regional development objectives. This study aims at exploring the performances of the three regional development grant schemes in Turkey, established and allocated under the pre-accession process with a special emphasis given to the roles of the national and local actors in decision-making for regional development. Efficiency analyses have been conducted using the DEA methodology which has proved to be a superior method in comparative efficiency and benchmarking measurements. The findings of this study as parallel to similar international studies, provides that the participation of the local actors to the decision-making in funding contributes both to the quality and the efficiency of the projects funded under the EU schemes.

Keywords: Efficiency, European Union Funds, RegionalDevelopment, Turkey

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Authors: S.K. Mazloomi, Nasri b. Sulaiman

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By analyzing the sources of energy and power loss in PWM (Pulse Width Modulation) controlled drivers of water electrolysis cells, it is possible to reduce the power dissipation and enhance the efficiency of such hydrogen production units. A PWM controlled power driver is based on a semiconductor switching element where its power dissipation might be a remarkable fraction of the total power demand of an electrolysis system. Power dissipation in a semiconductor switching element is related to many different parameters which could be fitted into two main categories: switching losses and conduction losses. Conduction losses are directly related to the built, structure and capabilities of a switching device itself and indeed the conditions in which the element is handling the switching application such as voltage, current, temperature and of course the fabrication technology. On the other hand, switching losses have some other influencing variables other than the mentioned such as control system, switching method and power electronics circuitry of the PWM power driver. By analyzings the characteristics of recently developed power switching transistors from different families of Bipolar Junction Transistors (BJT), Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistors (MOSFET) and Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBT), some recommendations are made in this paper which are able to lead to achieve higher hydrogen production efficiency by utilizing PWM controlled water electrolysis cells.

Keywords: Power switch, PWM, Semiconductor switch, Waterelectrolysis

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alodhaiani, Yasir A. Alturki, Mohamed A. Elkady

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Complex power flow distribution factors, which relate line complex power flows to the bus injected complex powers, have been widely used in various power system planning and analysis studies. In particular, AC distribution factors have been used extensively in the recent power and energy pricing studies in free electricity market field. As was demonstrated in the existing literature, many of the electricity market related costing studies rely on the use of the distribution factors. These known distribution factors, whether the injection shift factors (ISF’s) or power transfer distribution factors (PTDF’s), are linear approximations of the first order sensitivities of the active power flows with respect to various variables. This paper presents a novel model for evaluating the universal distribution factors (UDF’s), which are appropriate for an extensive range of power systems analysis and free electricity market studies. These distribution factors are used for the calculations of lines complex power flows and its independent of bus power injections, they are compact matrix-form expressions with total flexibility in determining the position on the line at which line flows are measured. The proposed approach was tested on IEEE 9-Bus system. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very accurate compared with exact method.

Keywords: Distribution Factors, Power System, Sensitivity Factors, Electricity Market.

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Authors: W. Du, X. Wang, Jun Cao, H. F. Wang

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Due to the randomness and uncertainty of wind energy, modern power systems integrating large-scale wind generation will be significantly impacted in terms of system performance and technical challenges. System inertia with high wind penetration is decreasing when conventional thermal generators are gradually replaced by wind turbines, which do not naturally contribute to inertia response. The power imbalance caused by wind power or demand fluctuations leads to the instability of system frequency. Accordingly, the need to attach the supplementary virtual inertia control to wind farms (WFs) strongly arises. When multi-wind farms are connected to the grid simultaneously, the selection of which critical WFs to install the virtual inertia control is greatly important to enhance the stability of system frequency. By building the small signal model of wind power systems considering frequency regulation, the installation locations are identified by the geometric measures of the mode observability of WFs. In addition, this paper takes the impacts of grid topology and selection of feedback control signals into consideration. Finally, simulations are conducted on a multi-wind farms power system and the results demonstrate that the designed virtual inertia control method can effectively assist the frequency regulation.

Keywords: Frequency regulation, virtual inertia control, installation locations, observability, wind farms.

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Authors: Santosh Kumar, Anand Prakash, Kanak Sinha, Anita K Verma

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Vernonia divergens Benth., commonly known as “Insulin Plant” (Fam: Asteraceae) is a potent sugar killer. Locally the leaves of the plant, boiled in water are successfully administered to a large number of diabetic patients. The present study evaluates the putative anti-diabetic ingredients, isolated from the in vivo and in vitro grown plantlets of V. divergens for their antimicrobial and anticancer activities. Sterilized explants of nodal segments were cultured on MS (Musashige and Skoog, 1962) medium in presence of different combinations of hormones. Multiple shoots along with bunch of roots were regenerated at 1mg l-1 BAP and 0.5 mg l-1 NAA. Micro-plantlets were separated and sub-cultured on the double strength (2X) of the above combination of hormones leading to increased length of roots and shoots. These plantlets were successfully transferred to soil and survived well in nature. The ethanol extract of plantlets from both in vivo & in vitro sources were prepared in soxhlet extractor and then concentrated to dryness under reduced pressure in rotary evaporator. Thus obtainedconcentrated extracts showed significant inhibitory activity against gram negative bacteria like Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa but no inhibition was found against gram positive bacteria. Further, these ethanol extracts were screened for in vitro percentage cytotoxicity at different time periods (24 h, 48 h and 72 h) of different dilutions. The in vivo plant extract inhibited the growth of EAC mouse cell lines in the range of 65, 66, 78, and 88% at 100, 50, 25 & 12.5μg mL-1 but at 72 h of treatment. In case of the extract of in vitro origin, the inhibition was found against EAC cell lines even at 48h. During spectrophotometric scanning, the extracts exhibited different maxima (ʎ) - four peaks in in vitro extracts as against single in in vivo preparation suggesting the possible change in the nature of ingredients during micropropagation through tissue culture techniques.

Keywords: Anti-cancer, Anti-microbial, EAC mouse cell, Tissue culture, Vernonia divergens.

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Authors: S. Grace Sahaya Sheba, R. Omegala Priakumari

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Polyethylene glycol (PEG) is a condensation polymer of ethylene oxide and water. It is soluble in water and in many organic solvents. PEG is used to make emulsifying agents, detergents, soaps, plasticizers, ointments etc. Ethanol (C₂H₅OH) also known as ethyl alcohol is a well-known organic compound and has wide applications in chemical industry as it is used as a solvent for paint, varnish, in preserving biological specimens, used as a fuel mixed with petrol etc. Though their chemical and physical properties are already studied, still because of their uses in day to day life the authors thought it is better to study some more of their physical properties like ultrasonic velocity and hence adiabatic compressibility, free length, etc. A detailed study of such properties and some excess parameters like excess adiabatic compressibility, excess free volume and few more in the liquid mixtures of these two compounds with PEG as a solute and Ethanol as a solvent at various mole fractions may throw some light on deeper understanding of molecular interaction between the solute and the solvent supported by NMR, IR etc. Hence the present research work is on ultrasonics/allied studies on these two liquid mixtures. Ultrasonic velocity (U), density (ρ) and viscosity (η) at room temperature and at different mole fraction from 0 to 0.055 of ethanol in PEG have been experimentally carried out by the authors. Acoustical parameters such as adiabatic compressibility (β), free volume (V_f), acoustic impedance (Z), internal pressure (π_i), intermolecular free length (L_f) and relaxation time (τ) were calculated from the experimental data. We have calculated excess parameters like excess adiabatic compressibility (β^E), excess internal pressure (π_i^E) free length (L_f^E) and excess acoustic impedance (Z^E) etc for these two chosen liquid mixtures. The excess compressibility is positive and maximum around a mole fraction 0.007 and excess internal pressure is negative and maximum at the same mole fraction and longer free length. The results are analyzed and it may be concluded that the molecular interactions between the solute and the solvent is not strong and it may be weak. Appropriate graphs are drawn.

Keywords: Adiabatic Compressibility, Binary mixture, Induce dipole, Polarizability, Ultrasonic.

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Authors: Peter U. Eze, P. Udaya, Robin J. Evans

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Data hiding can be achieved by Steganography or invisible digital watermarking. For digital watermarking, both accurate retrieval of the embedded watermark and the integrity of the cover image are important. Medical image security in Teleradiology is one of the applications where the embedded patient record needs to be extracted with accuracy as well as the medical image integrity verified. In this research paper, the Constant Correlation Spread Spectrum digital watermarking for medical image tamper detection and accurate embedded watermark retrieval is introduced. In the proposed method, a watermark bit from a patient record is spread in a medical image sub-block such that the correlation of all watermarked sub-blocks with a spreading code, W, would have a constant value, p. The constant correlation p, spreading code, W and the size of the sub-blocks constitute the secret key. Tamper detection is achieved by flagging any sub-block whose correlation value deviates by more than a small value, ℇ, from p. The major features of our new scheme include: (1) Improving watermark detection accuracy for high-pixel depth medical images by reducing the Bit Error Rate (BER) to Zero and (2) block-level tamper detection in a single computational process with simultaneous watermark detection, thereby increasing utility with the same computational cost.

Keywords: Constant correlation, medical image, spread spectrum, tamper detection, watermarking.

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Authors: C. Gunavathi, K. Premalatha

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Microarray technology is universally used in the study of disease diagnosis using gene expression levels. The main shortcoming of gene expression data is that it includes thousands of genes and a small number of samples. Abundant methods and techniques have been proposed for tumor classification using microarray gene expression data. Feature or gene selection methods can be used to mine the genes that directly involve in the classification and to eliminate irrelevant genes. In this paper statistical measures like T-Statistics, Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and F-Statistics are used to rank the genes. The ranked genes are used for further classification. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm and Shuffled Frog Leaping (SFL) algorithm are used to find the significant genes from the top-m ranked genes. The Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC) is used to classify the samples based on the significant genes. The proposed work is applied on Lung and Ovarian datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves 100% accuracy in all the three datasets and the results are compared with previous works.

Keywords: Microarray, T-Statistics, Signal-to-Noise Ratio, FStatistics, Particle Swarm Optimization, Shuffled Frog Leaping, Naïve Bayes Classifier.

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Authors: Yasmin Nanabhay

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The paper scrutinizes the literature on accountability and non-accountability, and then presents an analysis of a South African case which demonstrated consequences of a lack of accountability. Ethical conduct displayed by members of the public sector is integral to creating a sustainable democratic government, which upholds the constitutional tenets of accountability, transparency and professional ethicality. Furthermore, a true constitutional democracy emphasises and advocates the notion of service leadership that nurtures public participation and engages with citizens in a positive manner. Ethical conduct and accountability in the public sector earns public trust; hence these are key principles in good governance. Yet, in the years since the advent of democracy in South Africa, the government has been plagued by rampant corruption and mal-administration by public officials and politicians in leadership positions. The control measures passed by government in an attempt to ensure ethicality and accountability within the public sector include codes of ethics, rules of conduct and the enactment of legislation. These are intended to shape the mindset of members of the public sector, with the ultimate aim of an efficient, effective, ethical, responsive and accountable public service. The purpose of the paper is to analyse control systems and accountability within the public sector and to present reasons for non-accountability by means of a selected case study. The selected case study is the corruption trial of Jackie Selebi, who served as National Commissioner of the South African Police Service but was dismissed from the post. The reasons for non-accountability in the public sector as well as recommendations based on the findings to enhance accountability will be undertaken. The case study demonstrates the experience and impact of corruption and/or mal-administration, as a result of a lack of accountability, which has contributed to the increasing loss of confidence in political leadership in the country as elsewhere in the world. The literature is applied to the erstwhile National Commissioner of the South African Police Service and President of Interpol, as a case study of non-accountability.

Keywords: Public sector, public accountability, internal control, oversight mechanisms, non-compliance, corruption, mal-administration.

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Authors: Sanae Attioui, Said Najah

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The Earth's surface is constantly changing through forces of nature and human activities. Reliable, accurate, and timely change detection is critical to environmental monitoring, resource management, and planning activities. Recently, interest in deep learning algorithms, especially convolutional neural networks, has increased in the field of image change detection due to their powerful ability to extract multi-level image features automatically. However, these networks are prone to drawbacks that limit their applications, which reside in their inability to capture spatial relationships between image instances, as this necessitates a large amount of training data. As an alternative, Capsule Network has been proposed to overcome these shortcomings. Although its effectiveness in remote sensing image analysis has been experimentally verified, its application in change detection tasks remains very sparse. Motivated by its greater robustness towards improved hierarchical object representation, this study aims to apply a capsule network for PolSAR image Change Detection. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed change detection method can yield a significantly higher detection rate compared to methods based on convolutional neural networks.

Keywords: Change detection, capsule network, deep network, Convolutional Neural Networks, polarimetric synthetic aperture radar images, PolSAR images.

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Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: River stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform (DWT), ensemble empirical decomposition mode (EEMD), multi-station modeling.

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Authors: Ammar Alsabery, Habibis Saleh, Norazam Arbin, Ishak Hashim

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Unsteady natural convection and heat transfer in a square cavity partially filled with porous media using a thermal non-equilibrium model is studied in this paper. The left vertical wall is maintained at a constant hot temperature Th and the right vertical wall is maintained at a constant cold temperature Tc, while the horizontal walls are adiabatic. The governing equations are obtained by applying the Darcy model and Boussinesq approximation. COMSOL’s finite element method is used to solve the non-dimensional governing equations together with specified boundary conditions. The governing parameters of this study are the Rayleigh number (Ra = 10^5, and Ra = 10^6 ), Darcy namber (Da = 10^−2, and Da = 10^−3), the modified thermal conductivity ratio (10^−1 ≤ γ ≤ 10^4), the inter-phase heat transfer coefficien (10^−1 ≤ H ≤ 10^3) and the time dependent (0.001 ≤ τ ≤ 0.2). The results presented for values of the governing parameters in terms of streamlines in both fluid/porous-layer, isotherms of fluid in fluid/porous-layer, isotherms of solid in porous layer, and average Nusselt number.

Keywords: Unsteady natural convection, Thermal non-equilibrium model, Darcy model.

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Authors: N. Hernández Huertas, F. Rojas Mora

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Sounding rockets are aerospace vehicles that were developed in the mid-20th century, and since then numerous investigations have been executed with the aim of innovate in this type of technology. However, the costs associated to the production of this type of technology are usually quite high, and therefore the challenge that exists today is to be able to reduce them. In this way, the main objective of this document is to present the design process of a Colombian aerospace mission capable to reach the thermosphere using low-cost “Candy” type solid fuel engines. This mission is the latest development of the Uniandes Aerospace Project (PUA for its Spanish acronym), which is an undergraduate and postgraduate research group at Universidad de los Andes (Bogotá, Colombia), dedicated to incurring in this type of technology. In this way, the investigations that have been carried out on Candy-type solid fuel, which is a compound of potassium nitrate and sorbitol, have allowed the production of engines powerful enough to reach space, and which represents a unique technological advance in Latin America and an important development in experimental rocketry. In this way, following the engineering iterative design methodology was possible to design a 2-stage sounding rocket with 1 solid fuel engine in each one, which was then simulated in RockSim V9.0 software and reached an apogee of approximately 150 km above sea level. Similarly, a speed equal to 5 Mach was obtained, which after performing a finite element analysis, it was shown that the rocket is strong enough to be able to withstand such speeds. Under these premises, it was demonstrated that it is possible to build a high-power aerospace mission at low cost, using Candy-type solid fuel engines. For this reason, the feasibility of carrying out similar missions clearly depends on the ability to replicate the engines in the best way, since as mentioned above, the design of the rocket is adequate to reach supersonic speeds and reach space. Consequently, with a team of at least 3 members, the mission can be obtained in less than 3 months. Therefore, when publishing this project, it is intended to be a reference for future research in this field and benefit the industry.

Keywords: Aerospace missions, candy type solid propellant engines, design of solid rockets, experimental rocketry, low costs missions.

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Authors: Ameleh Aghajanloo, Moharam Dolatshahi Pirouz, Masoud Montazeri Namin

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In this paper, a two-dimensional (2D) numerical model for the tidal currents simulation in Persian Gulf is presented. The model is based on the depth averaged equations of shallow water which consider hydrostatic pressure distribution. The continuity equation and two momentum equations including the effects of bed friction, the Coriolis effects and wind stress have been solved. To integrate the 2D equations, the Alternative Direction Implicit (ADI) technique has been used. The base of equations discritization was finite volume method applied on rectangular mesh. To evaluate the model validation, a dam break case study including analytical solution is selected and the comparison is done. After that, the capability of the model in simulation of tidal current in a real field is represented by modeling the current behavior in Persian Gulf. The tidal fluctuations in Hormuz Strait have caused the tidal currents in the area of study. Therefore, the water surface oscillations data at Hengam Island on Hormoz Strait are used as the model input data. The check point of the model is measured water surface elevations at Assaluye port. The comparison between the results and the acceptable agreement of them showed the model ability for modeling marine hydrodynamic.

Keywords: Persian Gulf, Tidal Currents, Shallow Water Equations, Finite Volumes

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Authors: P. V. Pramila, V. Mahesh

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Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients resulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF25, PEF, FEF25-75, FEF50 and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects) with the aforementioned input features. It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, as well as yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV1, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Pulmonary Function Test, Random Forest.

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Authors: Amine Rezzoug, Said Abdi, Nadjet Bouhelal, Ismail Daoud

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This paper investigates the application of metallic coatings on high fiber volume fraction carbon/epoxy polymer matrix composites. For the grip of the metallic layer, a method of modifying the surface of the composite by introducing a mixture of copper and steel powder (filler powders) which can reduce the impact of thermal spray particles. The powder was introduced to the surface at the time of the forming. Arc spray was used to project the zinc coating layer. The substrate was grit blasted to avoid poor adherence. The porosity, microstructure, and morphology of layers are characterized by optical microscopy, SEM and image analysis. The samples were studied also in terms of hardness and erosion resistance. This investigation did not reveal any visible evidence damage to the substrates. The hardness of zinc layer was about 25.94 MPa and the porosity was around (∼6.70%). The erosion test showed that the zinc coating improves the resistance to erosion. Based on the results obtained, we can conclude that thermal spraying allows the production of protective coating on PMC. Zinc coating has been identified as a compatible material with the substrate. The filler powders layer protects the substrate from the impact of hot particles and allows avoiding the rupture of brittle carbon fibers.

Keywords: Arc spray, coating, composite, erosion.

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Authors: Ki Ok Choi, Sung Ho Hong, Dong Suck Kim, Don Mook Choi

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Rack type warehouses are different from general buildings in the kinds, amount, and arrangement of stored goods, so the fire risk of rack type warehouses is different from those buildings. The fire pattern of rack type warehouses is different in combustion characteristic and storing condition of stored goods. The initial fire burning rate is different in the surface condition of materials, but the running time of fire is closely related with the kinds of stored materials and stored conditions. The stored goods of the warehouse are consisted of diverse combustibles, combustible liquid, and so on. Fire detection time may be delayed because the residents are less than office and commercial buildings. If fire detectors installed in rack type warehouses are inadaptable, the fire of the warehouse may be the great fire because of delaying of fire detection. In this paper, we studied what kinds of fire detectors are optimized in early detecting of rack type warehouse fire by real-scale fire tests. The fire detectors used in the tests are rate of rise type, fixed type, photo electric type, and aspirating type detectors. We considered optimum fire detecting method in rack type warehouses suggested by the response characteristic and comparative analysis of the fire detectors.

Keywords: Fire detector, rack, response characteristic, warehouse.

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Authors: Sadaf Moeez, Madiha Khalid, Zoya Khalid, Sania Shaheen, Sumbul Khalid

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Background: Inter-individual variation in response to metformin, which has been considered as a first line therapy for T2DM treatment is considerable. In the current study, it was aimed to investigate the impact of two genetic variants Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) in gene SLC47A1 on the clinical efficacy of metformin in T2DM Pakistani patients. Methods: The study included 800 T2DM patients (400 metformin responders and 400 metformin non-responders) along with 400 ethnically matched healthy individuals. The genotypes were determined by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction. In-silico analysis was done to confirm the effect of the two SNPs on the structure of genes. Association was statistically determined using SPSS software. Results: Minor allele frequency for rs77474263 and rs77630697 was 0.13 and 0.12. For SLC47A1 rs77474263 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘T’ (CT) of rs77474263 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (29.2% vs. 35.5 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (7.2% vs. 4.0 %) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘T’ allele (TT). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘C’ (CC) had 2.11 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. For SLC47A1 rs77630697 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘A’ (GA) of rs77630697 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (33.5% vs. 43.0 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (8.5% vs. 4.5%) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘A’ allele (AA). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘G’ (GG) had 2.41 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. In-silico analysis revealed that these two variants affect the structure and stability of their corresponding proteins. Conclusion: The present data suggest that SLC47A1 Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) polymorphisms were associated with the therapeutic response of metformin in T2DM patients of Pakistan.

Keywords: Diabetes, T2DM, SLC47A1, Pakistan, polymorphism.

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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Authors: Ajay V. Kolhe, R. E. Shelke, S. S. Khandare

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Various biomass based resources, which can be used as an extender, or a complete substitute of diesel fuel may have very significant role in the development of agriculture, industrial and transport sectors in the energy crisis. Use of Karanja oil methyl ester biodiesel in a CI DI engine was found highly compatible with engine performance along with lower exhaust emission as compared to diesel fuel but with slightly higher NOx emission and low wear characteristics. The combustion related properties of vegetable oils are somewhat similar to diesel oil. Neat vegetable oils or their blends with diesel, however, pose various long-term problems in compression ignition engines. These undesirable features of vegetable oils are because of their inherent properties like high viscosity, low volatility, and polyunsaturated character. Pongamia methyl ester (PME) was prepared by transesterification process using methanol for long term engine operations. The physical and combustion-related properties of the fuels thus developed were found to be closer to that of the diesel. A neat biodiesel (PME) was selected as a fuel for the tribological study of biofuels. Two similar new engines were completely disassembled and subjected to dimensioning of various vital moving parts and then subjected to long-term endurance tests on neat biodiesel and diesel respectively. After completion of the test, both the engines were again disassembled for physical inspection and wear measurement of various vital parts. The lubricating oil samples drawn from both engines were subjected to atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) for measurement of various wear metal traces present. The additional lubricating property of biodiesel fuel due to higher viscosity as compared to diesel fuel resulted in lower wear of moving parts and thus improved the engine durability with a bio-diesel fuel. Results reported from AAS tests confirmed substantially lower wear and thus improved life for biodiesel operated engines.

Keywords: Transesterification, PME, wear of engine parts, Metal traces and AAS.

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Authors: Ahmed Mostafa, Mohamed Mahmoud, Nesreen H. Hafez, Mohamed Fahim

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This retrospective study includes 60 patients with pre-invasive breast cancer. Aim of the study: Evaluation of premalignant lesions of the breast (DCIS), different treatment methods and outcome. Patients and methods: 60 patients with DCIS were studied from the period between 2005 to 2012, for 38 patients the primary surgical method was wide local resection (WLE) (63.3%) and the other cases (22 patients, 36.7%) had mastectomy, fourteen cases from those who underwent local excision received radiotherapy, while no adjuvant radiotherapy was given for those who underwent mastectomy. In case of hormonal receptor positive DCIS lesions hormonal treatment (Tamoxifen) was given after local control. Results: No difference in overall survival between mastectomy & breast conserving therapy (wide local excision and adjuvant radiotherapy), however local recurrence rate is higher in case of breast conserving therapy, also no role of Axillary evacuation in case of DCIS. The use of hormonal therapy decreases the incidence of local recurrence by about 98%. Conclusion: The main management of DCIS is local treatment (wide local excision and radiotherapy) with hormonal treatment in case of hormone receptor positive lesions.

Keywords: Ductal carcinoma in situ, surgical treatment, radiotherapy, breast conserving therapy, hormonal treatment.

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Authors: B. S. Fatoyinbo, D. Stretch, O. T. Amoo, D. Allopi

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This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.

Keywords: Ungauged Basin, Catchment Characteristics Model, Synthetic data, GIS.

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Authors: Wenjuan Du, Jingtian Bi, Tong Wang, Haifeng Wang

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Grid connection of a large-scale wind farm affects power system small-signal angular stability in two aspects. Firstly, connection of the wind farm brings about the change of load flow and configuration of a power system. Secondly, the dynamic interaction is introduced by the wind farm with the synchronous generators (SGs) in the power system. This paper proposes a method to assess the two aspects of the effect of the wind farm on power system small-signal angular stability. The effect of the change of load flow/system configuration brought about by the wind farm can be examined separately by displacing wind farms with constant power sources, then the effect of the dynamic interaction of the wind farm with the SGs can be also computed individually. Thus, a clearer picture and better understanding on the power system small-signal angular stability as affected by grid connection of the large-scale wind farm are provided. In the paper, an example power system with grid connection of a wind farm is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: power system small-signal angular stability, power system low-frequency oscillations, electromechanical oscillation modes, wind farms, double fed induction generator (DFIG)

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