Search results for: conditional mean time to failure

Authors: S. Madhavi, S. Abirami, C. Bharathi, B. Ekambaram, T. Krishna Sankar, A. Nattudurai, N. Vijayarangan

Abstract:

The high utilization rate of Automated Teller Machine (ATM) has inevitably caused the phenomena of waiting for a long time in the queue. This in turn has increased the out of stock situations. The ATM utilization helps to determine the usage level and states the necessity of the ATM based on the utilization of the ATM system. The time in which the ATM used more frequently (peak time) and based on the predicted solution the necessary actions are taken by the bank management. The analysis can be done by using the concept of Data Mining and the major part are analyzed based on the predictive data mining. The results are predicted from the historical data (past data) and track the relevant solution which is required. Weka tool is used for the analysis of data based on predictive data mining.

Keywords: ATM, Bank Management, Data Mining, Historical data, Predictive Data Mining, Weka tool.

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Authors: Chih Chin Yang, Lan Hui Huang, Bo Shum Chen, Jia Liang Ke, Chung Lun Tsai

Abstract:

The control of oxygen flow rate during growth of titanium dioxide by mass flow controller in DC plasma sputtering growth system is studied. The impedance of TiO2 films for inductance effect is influenced by annealing time and oxygen flow rate. As annealing time is increased, the inductance of TiO2 film is the more. The growth condition of optimum and maximum inductance for TiO2 film to serve as sensing device are oxygen flow rate of 15 sccm and large annealing time. The large inductance of TiO2 film will be adopted to fabricate the biosensor to obtain the high sensitivity of sensing in biology.

Keywords: Annealed, Inductance, Silicon substarte, Titanium dioxide

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Authors: F.J. Suárez, J.C. Granda, J. Molleda, D.F. García

Abstract:

A prototype for audio and video capture and compression in real time on a Linux platform has been developed. It is able to visualize both the captured and the compressed video at the same time, as well as the captured and compressed audio with the goal of comparing their quality. As it is based on free code, the final goal is to run it in an embedded system running Linux. Therefore, we would implement a node to capture and compress such multimedia information. Thus, it would be possible to consider the project within a larger one aimed at live broadcast of audio and video using a streaming server which would communicate with our node. Then, we would have a very powerful and flexible system with several practical applications.

Keywords: Audio and video compression, Linux platform, live streaming, real time, visualization of captured and compressed video.

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Authors: Arti Vaish, Harish Parthasarathy

Abstract:

The scalar wave equation for a potential in a curved space time, i.e., the Laplace-Beltrami equation has been studied in this work. An action principle is used to derive a finite element algorithm for determining the modes of propagation inside a waveguide of arbitrary shape. Generalizing this idea, the Maxwell theory in a curved space time determines a set of linear partial differential equations for the four electromagnetic potentials given by the metric of space-time. Similar to the Einstein-s formulation of the field equations of gravitation, these equations are also derived from an action principle. In this paper, the expressions for the action functional of the electromagnetic field have been derived in the presence of gravitational field.

Keywords: General theory of relativity, electromagnetism, metric tensor, Maxwells equations, test functions, finite element method.

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Authors: Hamed Sabahno

Abstract:

In this paper, an inventory model with finite and constant replenishment rate, price dependant demand rate, time value of money and inflation, finite time horizon, lead time and exponential deterioration rate and with the objective of maximizing the present worth of the total system profit is developed. Using a dynamic programming based solution algorithm, the optimal sequence of the cycles can be found and also different optimal selling prices, optimal order quantities and optimal maximum inventories can be obtained for the cycles with unequal lengths, which have never been done before for this model. Also, a numerical example is used to show accuracy of the solution procedure.

Keywords: Deteriorating items, Dynamic programming, Finitereplenishment rate, Inventory control, Operation Research.

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Authors: Javad Razjouyan, Shahriar Gharibzadeh, Ali Fallah, Mehdi Moghaddasi, Mohsen Seyfi, Amir Kasaeian

Abstract:

Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) has been used as a common research tool for different neurological disorders like Multiple Sclerosis. Recently, technology let researchers to introduce a new versions of the visual test, the paced visual serial addition test (PVSAT). In this paper, the computerized version of these two tests is introduced. Beside the number of true responses are interpreted, the reaction time of subjects are calculated by the software. We hypothesize that paying attention to the reaction time may be valuable. For this purpose, sixty eight female normal subjects and fifty eight male normal subjects are enrolled in the study. We investigate the similarity between the PASAT3 and PVSAT3 in number of true responses and the new criterion (the average reaction time of each subject). The similarity between two tests were rejected (p-value = 0.000) which means that these two test differ. The effect of sex in the tests were not approved since the pvalues of different between PASAT3 and PVSAT3 in both sex is the same (p-value = 0.000) which means that male and female subjects performed the tests at no different level of performance. The new criterion shows a negative correlation with the age which offers aged normal subjects may have the same number of true responses as the young subjects but they have latent responses. This will give prove for the importance of reaction time.

Keywords: Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Pace Visual Serial Addition Test, reaction time.

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Authors: Kazunari Meguro, Shinichi Motomura, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

Abstract:

In this paper, backup and recovery technique for Peer to Peer applications, such as a distributed asynchronous Web-Based Training system that we have previously proposed. In order to improve the scalability and robustness of this system, all contents and function are realized on mobile agents. These agents are distributed to computers, and they can obtain using a Peer to Peer network that modified Content-Addressable Network. In the proposed system, although entire services do not become impossible even if some computers break down, the problem that contents disappear occurs with an agent-s disappearance. As a solution for this issue, backups of agents are distributed to computers. If a failure of a computer is detected, other computers will continue service using backups of the agents belonged to the computer.

Keywords: Distributed Multimedia Systems, e-Learning, P2P, Mobile Agent

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Authors: K. Kalaikumar, E. Baburaj

Abstract:

One of the problems to be addressed in wireless sensor networks is the issues related to cross layer communication. Cross layer architecture shares the information across the layer, ensuring Quality of Services (QoS). With this shared information, MAC protocol adapts effective functionality maintenance such as route selection on changeable sensor network environment. However, time slot assignment and neighbour route selection time duration for cross layer have not been carried out. The time varying physical layer communication over cross layer causes high traffic load in the sensor network. Though, the traffic load was reduced using cross layer optimization procedure, the computational cost is high. To improve communication efficacy in the sensor network, a self-determined time slot based Cross-Layered Neighbour Route Discovery (C-LNRD) method is presented in this paper. In the presented work, the initial process is to discover the route in the sensor network using Dynamic Source Routing based Medium Access Control (MAC) sub layers. This process considers MAC layer operation with dynamic route neighbour table discovery. Then, the discovered route path for packet communication employs Broad Route Distributed Time Slot Assignment method on Cross-Layered Sensor Network system. Broad Route means time slotting on varying length of the route paths. During packet communication in this sensor network, transmission of packets is adjusted over the different time with varying ranges for controlling the traffic rate. Finally, Rayleigh fading model is developed in C-LNRD to identify the performance of the sensor network communication structure. The main task of Rayleigh Fading is to measure the power level of each communication under MAC sub layer. The minimized power level helps to easily reduce the computational cost of packet communication in the sensor network. Experiments are conducted on factors such as power factor, on packet communication, neighbour route discovery time, and information (i.e., packet) propagation speed.

Keywords: Medium access control, neighbour route discovery, wireless sensor network, Rayleigh fading, distributed time slot assignment

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Authors: N. A. Samat, D. F. Percy

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to describe and introduce a method of numerical analysis in obtaining approximate solutions for the SIR-SI differential equations (susceptible-infectiverecovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) that represent a model for dengue disease transmission. Firstly, we describe the ordinary differential equations for the SIR-SI disease transmission models. Then, we introduce the numerical analysis of solutions of this continuous time, discrete space SIR-SI model by simplifying the continuous time scale to a densely populated, discrete time scale. This is followed by the application of this numerical analysis of solutions of the SIR-SI differential equations to the estimation of relative risk using continuous time, discrete space dengue data of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, comparing and displaying the results in graphs, table and maps. Results of the numerical analysis of solutions that we implemented offers a useful and potentially superior model for estimating relative risks based on continuous time, discrete space data for vector borne infectious diseases specifically for dengue disease. 

Keywords: Dengue disease, disease mapping, numerical analysis, SIR-SI differential equations.

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Authors: Heeyong Noh, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

The goal of this research is discovering the determinants of the success or failure of external cooperation in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). For this, a survey was given to 190 SMEs that experienced external cooperation within the last 3 years. A logistic regression model was used to derive organizational or strategic characteristics that significantly influence whether external collaboration of domestic SMEs is successful or not. Results suggest that research and development (R&D) features in general characteristics (both idea creation and discovering market opportunities) that focused on and emphasized indirected-market stakeholders (such as complementary companies and affiliates) and strategies in innovative strategic characteristics raise the probability of successful external cooperation. This can be used meaningfully to build a policy or strategy for inducing successful external cooperation or to understand the innovation of SMEs.

Keywords: External collaboration, Innovation strategy, Logisticregression, SMEs.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih, S. W. Chen, J. H. Yang, Y. Chiang

Abstract:

In this study, we focus on the establishment of the analysis model for Maanshan PWR nuclear power plant (NPP) by using RADTRAD and SNAP codes with the FSAR, manuals, and other data. In order to evaluate the cumulative dose at the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) and Low Population Zone (LPZ) outer boundary, Maanshan NPP RADTRAD/SNAP model was used to perform the analysis of the DBA LOCA case. The analysis results of RADTRAD were similar to FSAR data. These analysis results were lower than the failure criteria of 10 CFR 100.11 (a total radiation dose to the whole body, 250 mSv; a total radiation dose to the thyroid from iodine exposure, 3000 mSv).

Keywords: RADionuclide, transport, removal, and dose estimation, RADTRAD, symbolic nuclear analysis package, SNAP, dose, PWR.

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Authors: K. S. Neelukumari, K. B. Jayanthi

Abstract:

In this paper genetic based test data compression is targeted for improving the compression ratio and for reducing the computation time. The genetic algorithm is based on extended pattern run-length coding. The test set contains a large number of X value that can be effectively exploited to improve the test data compression. In this coding method, a reference pattern is set and its compatibility is checked. For this process, a genetic algorithm is proposed to reduce the computation time of encoding algorithm. This coding technique encodes the 2n compatible pattern or the inversely compatible pattern into a single test data segment or multiple test data segment. The experimental result shows that the compression ratio and computation time is reduced.

Keywords: Backtracking, test data compression (TDC), x-filling, x-propagating and genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Phu-Cuong Nguyen, Seung-Eock Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents nonlinear elastic dynamic analysis of 3-D semi-rigid steel frames including geometric and connection nonlinearities. The geometric nonlinearity is considered by using stability functions and updating geometric stiffness matrix. The nonlinear behavior of the steel beam-to-column connection is considered by using a zero-length independent connection element comprising of six translational and rotational springs. The nonlinear dynamic equilibrium equations are solved by the Newmark numerical integration method. The nonlinear time-history analysis results are compared with those of previous studies and commercial SAP2000 software to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed procedure.

Keywords: Geometric nonlinearity, nonlinear time-historyanalysis, semi-rigid connection, stability functions.

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Authors: Shahram Mohammadi, Ali Frajzadeh

Abstract:

A lot of matching algorithms with different characteristics have been introduced in recent years. For real time systems these algorithms are usually based on minutiae features. In this paper we introduce a novel approach for feature extraction in which the extracted features are independent of shift and rotation of the fingerprint and at the meantime the matching operation is performed much more easily and with higher speed and accuracy. In this new approach first for any fingerprint a reference point and a reference orientation is determined and then based on this information features are converted into polar coordinates. Due to high speed and accuracy of this approach and small volume of extracted features and easily execution of matching operation this approach is the most appropriate for real time applications.

Keywords: Matching, Minutiae, Reference point, Reference orientation

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Authors: DucKien Thai, Seung EockKim

Abstract:

A numerical analysis of a reinforced concrete (RC) wall under missile impact loading is presented in this study. The model created by Technical Research Center of Finland was used. The commercial finite element code, LS-DYNA was used to analyze. The structural components of the reinforced concrete wall, missile and their contacts are fully modeled. The material nonlinearity with strain rate effects considering damage and failure is included in the analysis. The results of analysis were verified with other research results. The case-studies with different reinforcement ratios were conducted to investigate the influence of reinforcement on the punching behavior of walls under missile impact.

Keywords: Missile Impact, Reinforced Concrete Walls, LSDYNA, Dynamic Analysis, Punching Behavior.

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Authors: Muhammad Murtaza Nasir, Safdar Abbas Zaidi, Kamran Khan

Abstract:

This work is carried out to evaluate the possibility of using to-be-wasted steel as reinforcement after welding together pieces of reinforcing steel bars, left over during construction activities. Tests were performed on a total of nine samples. These were made by welding pieces of reinforcing steel bars purchased from the local scrap steel market. The samples were tested in uniaxial tension using a universal testing machine (UTM). It was found that the failure of the welded bars is governed by the thickness of the weld. It is concluded that suitable design of the weld is essential for achieving the desired level of ductility/elongation of these bars, if they are to be used as conventional reinforcement in reinforced concrete members.

Keywords: Ductility/elongation, low cost housing, reinforced concrete, welding, welded reinforcement, wastage steel.

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Authors: Yucai Ding, Hong Zhu, Shouming Zhong, Yuping Zhang

Abstract:

This paper considers ­H∞ performance for Markovian jump systems with Time-varying delays. The systems under consideration involve disturbance signal, Markovian switching and timevarying delays. By using a new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and a convex optimization approach, a delay-dependent stability condition in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI) is addressed, which guarantee asymptotical stability in mean square and a prescribed ­H∞ performance index for the considered systems. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and the less conservatism of the proposed main results. All these results are expected to be of use in the study of stochastic systems with time-varying delays.

Keywords: ­H∞ performance, Markovian switching, Delaydependent stability, Linear matrix inequality (LMI)

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Authors: Nebi Gedik

Abstract:

Heart disease threatens the lives of a great number of people every year around the world. Heart issues lead to many of all deaths; therefore, early diagnosis and treatment are critical. The diagnosis of heart disease is complicated due to several factors affecting health such as high blood pressure, raised cholesterol, an irregular pulse rhythm, and more. Artificial intelligence has the potential to assist in the early detection and treatment of diseases. Improving heart failure prediction is one of the primary goals of research on heart disease risk assessment. This study aims to determine the features that provide the most successful classification prediction in detecting cardiovascular disease. The performances of each feature are compared using the K-Nearest Neighbor machine learning method. The feature that gives the most successful performance has been identified.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, feature extraction, supervised learning, k-NN.

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Authors: Jairo Aparecido Martins, Estaner Claro Romão

Abstract:

This paper presents the static and cyclic stresses in combination with fatigue analysis resultant of loads applied on the friction discs usually utilized on industrial clutches. The material chosen to simulate the friction discs under load is aluminum. The numerical simulation was done by software COMSOL^TM Multiphysics. The results obtained for static loads showed enough stiffness for both geometries and the material utilized. On the other hand, in the fatigue standpoint, failure is clearly verified, what demonstrates the importance of both approaches, mainly dynamical analysis. The results and the conclusion are based on the stresses on disc, counted stress cycles, and fatigue usage factor.

Keywords: Aluminum, industrial clutch, static and dynamic loading, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Pingping Zhang, Yanpeng Cai, Jianlong Wang

Abstract:

Stormwater storage tank (SST) is a popular low impact development technology for reducing stormwater runoff in the construction of sponge city. At present, it is difficult to perform the automatic control of SST for reducing peak flow. In this paper, fuzzy control was introduced into the peak control of SST to improve the efficiency of reducing stormwater runoff. Firstly, the design of SST was investigated. A catchment area and a return period were assumed, a SST model was manufactured, and then the storage capacity of the SST was verified. Secondly, the control parameters of the SST based on reducing stormwater runoff were analyzed, and a schematic diagram of real-time control (RTC) system based on peak control SST was established. Finally, fuzzy control system of a double input (flow and water level) and double output (inlet and outlet valve) was designed. The results showed that 1) under the different return periods (one year, three years, five years), the SST had the effect of delayed peak control and storage by increasing the detention time, 2) rainfall, pipeline flow, the influent time and the water level in the SST could be used as RTC parameters, and 3) the response curves of flow velocity and water level fluctuated very little and reached equilibrium in a short time. The combination of online monitoring and fuzzy control was feasible to control the SST automatically. This paper provides a theoretical reference for reducing stormwater runoff and improving the operation efficiency of SST.

Keywords: Stormwater runoff, stormwater storage tank, real-time control, fuzzy control.

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Authors: Norasiah Muhammad, Yupiter HP Manurung

Abstract:

This paper investigates the development of weld zone in Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) which focuses on weld nugget and Heat Affected Zone (HAZ). The effects of four factors namely weld current, weld time, electrode force and hold time were studied using a general 24 factorial design augmented by five centre points. The results of the analysis showed that all selected factors except hold time exhibit significant effect on weld nugget radius and HAZ size. Optimization of the welding parameters (weld current, weld time and electrode force) to normalize weld nugget and to minimize HAZ size was then conducted using Central Composite Design (CCD) in Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and the optimum parameters were determined. A regression model for radius of weld nugget and HAZ size was developed and its adequacy was evaluated. The experimental results obtained under optimum operating conditions were then compared with the predicted values and were found to agree satisfactorily with each other

Keywords: Factorial design, Optimization, Resistance Spot Welding (RSW), Response Surface Methodology (RSM).

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Authors: Haluk Gümüskaya, Hüseyin Hakkoymaz

Abstract:

This paper describes WiPoD (Wireless Position Detector) which is a pure software based location determination and tracking (positioning) system. It uses empirical signal strength measurements from different wireless access points for mobile user positioning. It is designed to determine the location of users having 802.11 enabled mobile devices in an 802.11 WLAN infrastructure and track them in real time. WiPoD is the first main module in our LBS (Location Based Services) framework. We tested K-Nearest Neighbor and Triangulation algorithms to estimate the position of a mobile user. We also give the analysis results of these algorithms for real time operations. In this paper, we propose a supportable, i.e. understandable, maintainable, scalable and portable wireless positioning system architecture for an LBS framework. The WiPoD software has a multithreaded structure and was designed and implemented with paying attention to supportability features and real-time constraints and using object oriented design principles. We also describe the real-time software design issues of a wireless positioning system which will be part of an LBS framework.

Keywords: Indoor location determination and tracking, positioning in Wireless LAN.

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Authors: Boram Kim, Shigeyasu Uno, Kazuo Nakazato

Abstract:

Continuous-time delta-sigma analog digital converter (ADC) for radio frequency identification (RFID) complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) biosensor has been reported. This delta-sigma ADC is suitable for digital conversion of biosensor signal because of small process variation, and variable input range. As the input range of continuous-time switched current delta-sigma ADC (Dynamic range : 50 dB) can be limited by using current reference, amplification of biosensor signal is unnecessary. The input range is switched to wide input range mode or narrow input range mode by command of current reference. When the narrow input range mode, the input range becomes ± 0.8 V. The measured power consumption is 5 mW and chip area is 0.31 mm^2 using 1.2 um standard CMOS process. Additionally, automatic input range detecting system is proposed because of RFID biosensor applications.

Keywords: continuous time, delta sigma, A/D converter, RFID, biosensor, CMOS

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Authors: R. Hanuma Naik, D. V. Ashok Kumar, K. S. R. Anjaneyulu

Abstract:

Several of the practical industrial control processes are multivariable processes. Due to the relation amid the variables (interaction), delay in the loops, it is very intricate to design a controller directly for these processes. So first, the interaction of the variables is analyzed using Relative Normalized Gain Array (RNGA), which considers the time constant, static gain and delay time of the processes. Based on the effect of RNGA, relative gain array (RGA) and NI, the pair (control configuration) of variables to be controlled by decentralized control is selected. The equivalent transfer function (ETF) of the process model is estimated as first order process with delay using the corresponding elements in the Relative gain array and Relative average residence time array (RARTA) of the processes. Secondly, a decentralized Proportional- Integral (PI) controller is designed for each ETF simply using frequency response specifications. Finally, the performance and robustness of the algorithm is comparing with existing related approaches to validate the effectiveness of the projected algorithm.

Keywords: Decentralized control, interaction, Multivariable processes, relative normalized gain array, relative average residence time array, steady state gain.

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Authors: M. Stefanovska, S. Risteska, B. Samakoski, G. Maneski, B. Kostadinoska

Abstract:

Aim of this work is to determine the theoretical and experimental properties of filament wound glass fiber/epoxy resin composite pipes with different winding design subjected under bending. For determination of bending strength of composite samples three point bending tests were conducted. Good correlation between theoretical and experimental results has been obtained, where sample No4 has shown the highest value of bending strength. All samples have demonstrated matrix cracking and fiber failure followed by layers delamination during testing. Also, it was found that smaller winding angles lead to an increase in bending stress. From presented results good merger between glass fibers and epoxy resin was confirmed by SEM analysis.

Keywords: Bending properties, composite pipe, winding design.

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Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: Age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Kengo Nagatomo, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

This paper deals with an on-line identification method of continuous-time Hammerstein systems by using the radial basis function (RBF) networks and immune algorithm (IA). An unknown nonlinear static part to be estimated is approximately represented by the RBF network. The IA is efficiently combined with the recursive least-squares (RLS) method. The objective function for the identification is regarded as the antigen. The candidates of the RBF parameters such as the centers and widths are coded into binary bit strings as the antibodies and searched by the IA. On the other hand, the candidates of both the weighting parameters of the RBF network and the system parameters of the linear dynamic part are updated by the RLS method. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Continuous-time System, Hammerstein System, OnlineIdentification, Immune Algorithm, RBF network.

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Authors: C. Umpuch, N. Bunmanan, U. Kueasing, P. Kaewsan

Abstract:

This work was to study batch biosorption of Pb(II) ions from aqueous solution by Luffa charcoal. The effect of operating parameters such as adsorption contact time, initial pH solution and different initial Pb(II) concentration on the sorption of Pb(II) were investigated. The results showed that the adsorption of Pb(II) ions was initially rapid and the equilibrium time was 10 h. Adsorption kinetics of Pb(II) ions onto Luffa charcoal could be best described by the pseudo-second order model. At pH 5.0 was favorable for the adsorption and removal of Pb(II) ions. Freundlich adsorption isotherm model was better fitted for the adsorption of Pb(II) ions than Langmuir and Timkin isotherms, respectively. The highest monolayer adsorption capacity obtained from Langmuir isotherm model was 51.02 mg/g. This study demonstrated that Luffa charcoal could be used for the removal of Pb(II) ions in water treatment.

Keywords: Lead (II), Luffa charcoal, Biosorption, initial pHsolution, contact time, adsorption isotherm.

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Authors: Azeemsha Thacham Poyil, Nasimudeen KM

Abstract:

This research paper presents some methods to assess the performance of Wigner Ville Distribution for Time-Frequency representation of non-stationary signals, in comparison with the other representations like STFT, Spectrogram etc. The simultaneous timefrequency resolution of WVD is one of the important properties which makes it preferable for analysis and detection of linear FM and transient signals. There are two algorithms proposed here to assess the resolution and to compare the performance of signal detection. First method is based on the measurement of area under timefrequency plot; in case of a linear FM signal analysis. A second method is based on the instantaneous power calculation and is used in case of transient, non-stationary signals. The implementation is explained briefly for both methods with suitable diagrams. The accuracy of the measurements is validated to show the better performance of WVD representation in comparison with STFT and Spectrograms.

Keywords: WVD: Wigner Ville Distribution, STFT: Short Time Fourier Transform, FT: Fourier Transform, TFR: Time-Frequency Representation, FM: Frequency Modulation, LFM Signal: Linear FM Signal, JTFA: Joint time frequency analysis.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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