Search results for: working time model.

Authors: Ahmed N. Shmroukh, Ahmed Hamza H. Ali, Ali K. Abel-Rahman

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Adsorption refrigeration working pair is a vital and is the main component in the adsorption refrigeration machine. Therefore the development key is laying on the adsorption pair that leads to the improvement of the adsorption refrigeration machine. In this study the state-of-the-art in the application of the adsorption refrigeration working pairs in both classical and modern adsorption pairs are presented, compared and summarized. It is found that the maximum adsorption capacity for the classical working pairs was 0.259kg/kg for activated carbon/methanol and that for the modern working pairs was 2kg/kg for maxsorb III/R-134a. The study concluded that, the performances of the adsorption working pairs of adsorption cooling systems are still need further investigations as well as developing adsorption pairs having higher sorption capacity with low or no impact on environmental, to build compact, efficient, reliable and long life performance adsorption chillier. Also, future researches need to be focused on designing the adsorption system that provide efficient heating and cooling for the adsorbent materials through distributing the adsorbent material over heat exchanger surface, to allow good heat and mass transfer between the adsorbent and the refrigerant.

Keywords: Adsorption, Adsorbent/Adsorbate Pairs, Refrigeration.

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a FitzHugh-Nagumo model with time delays is investigated. The linear stability of the equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation with delay τ is investigated. By applying Nyquist criterion, the length of delay is estimated for which stability continues to hold. Numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical results are illustrated. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: FitzHugh-Nagumo model, Time delay, Stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Linghui Zhu, Junjie Gu

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Thermal-driven refrigeration systems have attracted increasing research and development interest in recent years. These systems do not cause ozone depletion and can reduce demand on electricity. The main objective of this work is to perform theoretical analyses of a thermal-driven refrigeration system using a new sorbent-sorptive pair as the working pair. The active component of sorbent is sodium thiocyanate (NaSCN). Ammonia (NH3) is chosen as sorptive. Based on the thermodynamic properties of the working solution, a mathematical model is introduced to analyze the system characteristics and performance. The results are used to compare with other thermal-driven refrigeration systems. It is shown that the advantages provided by this system over other absorption units include lower generator and evaporator temperatures, a higher coefficient of performance (COP). The COP is about 10 percent higher than the ones for the NH3-H2O system working at the same conditions.

Keywords: Absorption; Ammonia-Sodium thiocyanate, Exergy, coefficient of performance (COP)

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Authors: P. Prudtikul, S. Pathomsiri

Abstract:

Most, if not all, public hospitals in Thailand have encountered a common problem regarding the increasing demand for medical services. The increasing number of patients causes so much strain on the hospital-s services, over-crowded, overloaded working hours, staff fatigue, medical error and long waiting time. This research studied the characteristics of operational processes of the medical care services at the medicine department in a large public university hospital. The research focuses on details regarding methods, procedures, processes, resources, and time management in overall processes. The simulation model is used as a tool to analyze the impact of various improvement strategies.

Keywords: Patient flow, medicine department, simulation, outpatient department.

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Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

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Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time.

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Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

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The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

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Authors: Faraj El Dabee, Romeo Marian, Yousef Amer

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This paper implements the inventory model developed in the first part of this paper in a simplified problem to simultaneously reduce costs and risks in JIT systems. This model is developed to ascertain an optimal ordering strategy for procuring raw materials by using regular multi-external and local backup suppliers to reduce the total cost of the products, and at the same time to reduce the risks arising from this cost reduction within production systems. A comparison between the cost of using the JIT system and using the proposed inventory model shows the superiority of the use of the inventory model.

Keywords: Lean manufacturing, Just-in-Time (JIT), production system, cost-risk reduction, inventory model, eternal supplier, local backup supplier.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: Benjamin Gorry

Abstract:

Safety Critical hard Real-Time Systems are ever present in the avionics industry. The Model Driven Architecture (MDA) offers different levels of model abstraction and generation. This paper discusses our concerns relating to model development and generation when using the MDA approach in the avionics industry. These concerns are based on our experience when looking into adopting the MDA as part of avionics systems development. We place emphasis on transformations between model types and discuss possible benefits of adopting an MDA approach as part of the software development life cycle.

Keywords: Model Driven Architecture, Real-Time AvionicsApplications.

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Authors: N. L. S. Ahmad, Y. L. Thong, P. Nambiar

Abstract:

An in vitro study was carried out to evaluate the feasibility of small field of view (FOV) cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) in determining endodontic working length. The objectives were to determine the accuracy of CBCT in measuring the estimated preoperative working lengths (EPWL), endodontic working lengths (EWL) and file lengths. Access cavities were prepared in 27 molars. For each root canal, the baseline electronic working length was determined using an EAL (Raypex 5). The teeth were then divided into overextended, non-modified and underextended groups and the lengths were adjusted accordingly. Imaging and measurements were made using the respective software of the RVG (Kodak RVG 6100) and CBCT units (Kodak 9000 3D). Root apices were then shaved and the apical constrictions viewed under magnification to measure the control working lengths. The paired t-test showed a statistically significant difference between CBCT EPWL and control length but the difference was too small to be clinically significant. From the Bland Altman analysis, the CBCT method had the widest range of 95% limits of agreement, reflecting its greater potential of error. In measuring file lengths, RVG had a bigger window of 95% limits of agreement compared to CBCT. Conclusions: (1) The clinically insignificant underestimation of the preoperative working length using small FOV CBCT showed that it is acceptable for use in the estimation of preoperative working length. (2) Small FOV CBCT may be used in working length determination but it is not as accurate as the currently practiced method of using the EAL. (3) It is also more accurate than RVG in measuring file lengths.

Keywords: Accuracy, CBCT, endodontic, measurement.

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Authors: N. Z. A. Hamid, M. S. M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly Ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: Chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method.

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Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

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This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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Authors: A. Rawangpai, B. Maraungsri, N. Chomnawang

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This paper presents the experimental results on artificial ageing test of 22 kV XLPE cable for distribution system application in Thailand. XLPE insulating material of 22 kV cable was sliced to 60-70 μm in thick and was subjected to ac high voltage at 23 Ôùª C, 60 Ôùª C and 75 Ôùª C. Testing voltage was constantly applied to the specimen until breakdown. Breakdown voltage and time to breakdown were used to evaluate life time of insulating material. Furthermore, the physical model by J. P. Crine for predicts life time of XLPE insulating material was adopted as life time model and was calculated in order to compare the experimental results. Acceptable life time results were obtained from Crine-s model comparing with the experimental result. In addition, fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) for chemical analysis and scanning electron microscope (SEM) for physical analysis were conducted on tested specimens.

Keywords: Artificial accelerated ageing test, XLPE cable, distribution system, insulating material, life time, life time model

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Authors: Wonsim Cha, Kibum Kim, Kyungwook Choi, Kihyung Lee

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A co-generation system in automobile can improve thermal efficiency of vehicle in some degree. The waste heat from the engine exhaust and coolant is still attractive energy source that reaches around 60% of the total energy converted from fuel. To maximize the effectiveness of heat exchangers for recovering the waste heat, it is vital to select the most suitable working fluid for the system, not to mention that it is important to find the optimum design for the heat exchangers. The design of heat exchanger is out of scoop of this study; rather, the main focus has been on the right selection of working fluid for the co-generation system. Simulation study was carried out to find the most suitable working fluid that can allow the system to achieve the optimum efficiency in terms of the heat recovery rate and thermal efficiency.

Keywords: Cycle Analysis, Heat Recovery, Rankine Cycle, Waste Heat Recovery, Working Fluid.

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Authors: Shutchapol Chopvitayakun

Abstract:

Internship program is a compulsory course of many undergraduate programs in Thailand. It gives opportunities to a lot of senior students as interns to practice their working skills in the real organizations and also gives chances for interns to face real-world working problems. Interns also learn how to solve those problems by direct and indirect experiences. This program in many schools is a well-structured course with a contract or agreement made with real business organizations. Moreover, this program also offers opportunities for interns to get jobs after completing it from where the internship program takes place. Interns also learn how to work as a team and how to associate with other colleagues, trainers, and superiors of each organization in term of social hierarchy, self-responsibility, and self-disciplinary. This research focuses on senior students of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, Thailand whose studying major is information technology program. They practiced their working skills or took internship programs in the real business sector or real operating organizations in 2015-2016. Interns are categorized in to two types: normal program and special program. For special program, students study in weekday evening from Monday to Friday or Weekend and most of them work full-time or part-time job. For normal program, students study in weekday working hours and most of them do not work. The differences of these characters and the outcomes of internship performance were studied and analyzed in this research. This work applied some statistical analytics to find out whether the internship performance of each intern type has different performances statistically or not.

Keywords: Internship, intern, senior student, information technology program.

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Authors: D. B. Gohil

Abstract:

Closed die forging is a very complex process, and measurement of actual forces for real material is difficult and time consuming. Hence, the modelling technique has taken the advantage of carrying out the experimentation with the proper model material which needs lesser forces and relatively low temperature. The results of experiments on the model material then may be correlated with the actual material by using the theory of similarity. There are several methods available to resolve the complexity involved in the closed die forging process. Finite Element Method (FEM) and Finite Difference Method (FDM) are relatively difficult as compared to the slab method. The slab method is very popular and very widely used by the people working on shop floor because it is relatively easy to apply and reasonably accurate for most of the common forging load requirement computations.

Keywords: Experimentation, forging, process modeling, strain distribution.

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Authors: Adibah Shuib, Zati Aqmar Zaharudin

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Our study is concerned with the development of an Emergency Medical Services (EMS) ambulance location and allocation model called the Time-based Ambulance Zoning Optimization Model (TAZ_OPT). This paper presents the framework of the study. The model is formulated using the goal programming (GP), where the goals are to determine the satellite locations of ambulances and the number of ambulances to be allocated at these locations. The model aims at maximizing the expected demand coverage based on probability of reaching the emergency location within targetted time, and minimizing the ambulance busyness likelihood value. Among the benefits of the model is the increased accessibility and availability of ambulances, thus, enhanced quality of the EMS ambulance services.

Keywords: Optimization, Ambulance Location, Location facilities.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Asok Adak, Debabrata Mazumder, Pratip Bandyopadhyay

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Anaerobic Digestion has become a promising technology for biological transformation of organic fraction of the municipal solid wastes (MSW). In order to represent the kinetic behavior of such biological process and thereby to design a reactor system, development of a mathematical model is essential. Addressing this issue, a simplistic mathematical model has been developed for anaerobic digestion of MSW in a continuous flow reactor unit under homogeneous steady state condition. Upon simulated hydrolysis, the kinetics of biomass growth and substrate utilization rate are assumed to follow first order reaction kinetics. Simulation of this model has been conducted by studying sensitivity of various process variables. The model was simulated using typical kinetic data of anaerobic digestion MSW and typical MSW characteristics of Kolkata. The hydraulic retention time (HRT) and solid retention time (SRT) time were mainly estimated by varying different model parameters like efficiency of reactor, influent substrate concentration and biomass concentration. Consequently, design table and charts have also been prepared for ready use in the actual plant operation.

Keywords: Anaerobic digestion, municipal solid waste (MSW), process design model, simulation study, hydraulic retention time(HRT), solid retention time (SRT).

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Authors: Hu Haibo, Zhao Hong

Abstract:

Gaussian mixture background model is widely used in moving target detection of the image sequences. However, traditional Gaussian mixture background model usually considers the time continuity of the pixels, and establishes background through statistical distribution of pixels without taking into account the pixels- spatial similarity, which will cause noise, imperfection and other problems. This paper proposes a new Gaussian mixture modeling approach, which combines the color and gradient of the spatial information, and integrates the spatial information of the pixel sequences to establish Gaussian mixture background. The experimental results show that the movement background can be extracted accurately and efficiently, and the algorithm is more robust, and can work in real time in tracking applications.

Keywords: Gaussian mixture model, real-time tracking, sequence image, gradient.

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Authors: Amira Abbes Kheriji, Faouzi Bouani, Mekki Ksouri, Mohamed Ben Ahmed

Abstract:

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is increasingly being proposed for real time applications and embedded systems. However comparing to PID controller, the implementation of the MPC in miniaturized devices like Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) and microcontrollers has historically been very small scale due to its complexity in implementation and its computation time requirement. At the same time, such embedded technologies have become an enabler for future manufacturing enterprises as well as a transformer of organizations and markets. Recently, advances in microelectronics and software allow such technique to be implemented in embedded systems. In this work, we take advantage of these recent advances in this area in the deployment of one of the most studied and applied control technique in the industrial engineering. In fact in this paper, we propose an efficient framework for implementation of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) in the performed STM32 microcontroller. The STM32 keil starter kit based on a JTAG interface and the STM32 board was used to implement the proposed GPC firmware. Besides the GPC, the PID anti windup algorithm was also implemented using Keil development tools designed for ARM processor-based microcontroller devices and working with C/Cµ langage. A performances comparison study was done between both firmwares. This performances study show good execution speed and low computational burden. These results encourage to develop simple predictive algorithms to be programmed in industrial standard hardware. The main features of the proposed framework are illustrated through two examples and compared with the anti windup PID controller.

Keywords: Embedded systems, Model Predictive Control, microcontroller, Keil tool.

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Authors: Leila Maleki, Ezatollah Ahmadi

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of memory training exercise on cognitive flexibility. The method of this study was experimental. The statistical population selected 40 students 14 years old, samples were chosen by available sampling method and then they were replaced in experimental (training program) group and control group randomly and answered to Wisconsin Card Sorting Test; covariance test results indicated that there were a significant in post-test scores of experimental group (p<0.005).

Keywords: Cognitive flexibility, working memory exercises, problem solving, reaction time.

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Authors: Xiangbin Zhu

Abstract:

Advances in computing applications in recent years have prompted the demand for more flexible scheduling models for QoS demand. Moreover, in practical applications, partly violated temporal constraints can be tolerated if the violation meets certain distribution. So we need extend the traditional Liu and Lanland model to adapt to these circumstances. There are two extensions, which are the (m, k)-firm model and Window-Constrained model. This paper researches on weakly hard real-time constraints and their combination to support QoS. The fact that a practical application can tolerate some violations of temporal constraint under certain distribution is employed to support adaptive QoS on the open real-time system. The experiment results show these approaches are effective compared to traditional scheduling algorithms.

Keywords: Weakly Hard Real-Time, Real-Time, Scheduling, Quality of Service.

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Authors: Mehrdad N. Khajavi, Bahram Notghi, Golamhassan Paygane

Abstract:

Vehicle suspension design must fulfill some conflicting criteria. Among those is ride comfort which is attained by minimizing the acceleration transmitted to the sprung mass, via suspension spring and damper. Also good handling of a vehicle is a desirable property which requires stiff suspension and therefore is in contrast with a vehicle with good ride. Among the other desirable features of a suspension is the minimization of the maximum travel of suspension. This travel which is called suspension working space in vehicle dynamics literature is also a design constraint and it favors good ride. In this research a full car 8 degrees of freedom model has been developed and the three above mentioned criteria, namely: ride, handling and working space has been adopted as objective functions. The Multi Objective Programming (MOP) discipline has been used to find the Pareto Front and some reasoning used to chose a design point between these non dominated points of Pareto Front.

Keywords: Vehicle, Ride, Handling, Suspension, Working Space, Multi Objective Programming.

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Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

Abstract:

Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision making, management and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistances, unique position of medical data content and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. Success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose a HA process model with features from rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: Agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML.

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Authors: Yolina A. Petrova, Georgi I. Petkov

Abstract:

The paper presents a symbolic model for category learning and categorization (called RoleMap). Unlike the other models which implement learning in a separate working mode, role-governed category learning and categorization emerge in RoleMap while it does its usual reasoning. The model is based on several basic mechanisms known as reflecting the sub-processes of analogy-making. It steps on the assumption that in their everyday life people constantly compare what they experience and what they know. Various commonalities between the incoming information (current experience) and the stored one (long-term memory) emerge from those comparisons. Some of those commonalities are considered to be highly important, and they are transformed into concepts for further use. This process denotes the category learning. When there is missing knowledge in the incoming information (i.e. the perceived object is still not recognized), the model makes anticipations about what is missing, based on the similar episodes from its long-term memory. Various such anticipations may emerge for different reasons. However, with time only one of them wins and is transformed into a category member. This process denotes the act of categorization.

Keywords: Categorization, category learning, role-governed category, analogy-making, cognitive modeling.

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Authors: Emrah Bulut, Okan Duru, Shigeru Yoshida

Abstract:

In this study, a fuzzy integrated logical forecasting method (FILF) is extended for multi-variate systems by using a vector autoregressive model. Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) method was recently introduced by Song and Chissom [1]-[2] after that Chen improved the FTSF method. Rather than the existing literature, the proposed model is not only compared with the previous FTS models, but also with the conventional time series methods such as the classical vector autoregressive model. The cluster optimization is based on the C-means clustering method. An empirical study is performed for the prediction of the chartering rates of a group of dry bulk cargo ships. The root mean squared error (RMSE) metric is used for the comparing of results of methods and the proposed method has superiority than both traditional FTS methods and also the classical time series methods.

Keywords: C-means clustering, Fuzzy time series, Multi-variate design

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Authors: S. Panda, S. K. Tomar, R. Prasad, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Order reduction of linear-time invariant systems employing two methods; one using the advantages of Routh approximation and other by an evolutionary technique is presented in this paper. In Routh approximation method the denominator of the reduced order model is obtained using Routh approximation while the numerator of the reduced order model is determined using the indirect approach of retaining the time moments and/or Markov parameters of original system. By this method the reduced order model guarantees stability if the original high order model is stable. In the second method Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed to reduce the higher order model. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical examples.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction, Markov Parameters, Routh Approximation, Particle Swarm Optimization, Integral Squared Error, Steady State Stability.

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Authors: R.A.Mahdavinejad

Abstract:

In this paper, multi-processors job shop scheduling problems are solved by a heuristic algorithm based on the hybrid of priority dispatching rules according to an ant colony optimization algorithm. The objective function is to minimize the makespan, i.e. total completion time, in which a simultanous presence of various kinds of ferons is allowed. By using the suitable hybrid of priority dispatching rules, the process of finding the best solution will be improved. Ant colony optimization algorithm, not only promote the ability of this proposed algorithm, but also decreases the total working time because of decreasing in setup times and modifying the working production line. Thus, the similar work has the same production lines. Other advantage of this algorithm is that the similar machines (not the same) can be considered. So, these machines are able to process a job with different processing and setup times. According to this capability and from this algorithm evaluation point of view, a number of test problems are solved and the associated results are analyzed. The results show a significant decrease in throughput time. It also shows that, this algorithm is able to recognize the bottleneck machine and to schedule jobs in an efficient way.

Keywords: Job shops scheduling, Priority dispatching rules, Makespan, Hybrid heuristic algorithm.

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Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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