Search results for: Decision treemodel

Authors: Jeffrey L. Duffany

Abstract:

The equivalence class subset algorithm is a powerful tool for solving a wide variety of constraint satisfaction problems and is based on the use of a decision function which has a very high but not perfect accuracy. Perfect accuracy is not required in the decision function as even a suboptimal solution contains valuable information that can be used to help find an optimal solution. In the hardest problems, the decision function can break down leading to a suboptimal solution where there are more equivalence classes than are necessary and which can be viewed as a mixture of good decision and bad decisions. By choosing a subset of the decisions made in reaching a suboptimal solution an iterative technique can lead to an optimal solution, using series of steadily improved suboptimal solutions. The goal is to reach an optimal solution as quickly as possible. Various techniques for choosing the decision subset are evaluated.

Keywords: np-complete, complexity, algorithm.

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Authors: Katejarinporn Chaiya, Thawit Janbanklong

Abstract:

The purposes of this study were to design and find users’ satisfaction after using the decision support system for tourism northern part of Thailand, which can provide tourists touristic information and plan their personal voyage. Such information can be retrieved systematically based on personal budget and provinces. The samples of this study were five experts and users 30 persons white collars in Bangkok. This decision support system was designed via ASP.NET. Its database was developed by using MySQL, for administrators are able to effectively manage the database. The application outcome revealed that the innovation works properly as sought in objectives. Specialists and white collars in Bangkok have evaluated the decision support system; the result was satisfactorily positive.

Keywords: Decision Support System, ASP.NET, MySQL.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a multiple criteria evaluation approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The fighter aircraft evaluation and selection decision making problem is modeled in a fuzzy environment with triangular fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy decision information related to the fighter aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ordering the alternatives and selecting the best candidate. The basic fuzzy TOPSIS procedure steps transform fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A practical numerical example illustrates the proposed approach to the fighter aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: triangular fuzzy number (TFN), multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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Authors: Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska

Abstract:

In this paper, a fuzzy algorithm and a fuzzy multicriteria decision framework are developed and used for a practical question of optimizing biofuels policy making. The methodological framework shows how to incorporate fuzzy set theory in a decision process of finding a sustainable biofuels policy among several policy options. Fuzzy set theory is used here as a tool to deal with uncertainties of decision environment, vagueness and ambiguities of policy objectives, subjectivities of human assessments and imprecise and incomplete information about the evaluated policy instruments.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, multi-criteria decision-makingsupport, uncertainties, policy making, biofuels

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Authors: Samsiah Abdul Razak, Daud Mohamad

Abstract:

Molodstov-s soft sets theory was originally proposed as general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty problems. The matrix form has been introduced in soft set and some of its properties have been discussed. However, the formulation of soft matrix in group decision making problem only with equal importance weights of criteria, which does not show the true opinion of decision maker on each criteria. The aim of this paper is to propose a method for solving group decision making problem incorporating the importance of criteria by using soft matrices in a more objective manner. The weight of each criterion is calculated by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. An example of house selection process is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Soft set, Soft Matrix, Soft max-min decision making (SMmDM), Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

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Authors: M. S. Bani, Z. A. Rashid, K. H. K. Hamid, M. E. Harbawi, A.B.Alias, M. J. Aris

Abstract:

Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and complexity of the mathematical models which include the assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.

Keywords: Review, decision support system, GIS and waste management.

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Authors: Kasim Terzic, Bernd Neumann

Abstract:

Scene interpretation systems need to match (often ambiguous) low-level input data to concepts from a high-level ontology. In many domains, these decisions are uncertain and benefit greatly from proper context. This paper demonstrates the use of decision trees for estimating class probabilities for regions described by feature vectors, and shows how context can be introduced in order to improve the matching performance.

Keywords: Classification, Decision Trees, Interpretation, Vision

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Authors: Seung hee Kang, Jee-Hong Kim, Ji Seong Jang,

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate relationships between satisfaction with major and career decision efficacy and career attitude maturity of engineering college students by performing correlation analysis. Gender differences in between satisfaction with major and career decision efficacy and career attitude maturity were also examined by T-test. The results T-test revealed gender differences in only career decision efficacy. Male Students scored significantly higher than did female students on career decision efficacy and satisfaction with major. The results of correlation analysis showed a) satisfaction with major were significantly associated with career decision efficacy, b) satisfaction with major were significantly associated with career attitude maturity, and c) career decision efficacy were significantly associated with career attitude maturity. As a result,we found the importance of satisfaction in engineering college students- major studies when deciding their career.

Keywords: Satisfaction with major, career decision efficacy, career attitude maturity, engineering college student.

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Authors: Chee Siong Teh, Chee Peng Lim

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.

Keywords: Interactive evolutionary computation, multivariate data projection, pattern classification, topographic map.

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Authors: Popoola, C. F., Akinsanya, K., Babarinde, S. B., Farinde, D. A.

Abstract:

This study investigated published financial statement as correlate of investment decision among commercial bank stakeholders in Nigeria. A correlation research design was used in the study. 180 users of published financial statement were purposively sampled from Lagos and Ibadan. Data generated were analyzed using Pearson correlation and regression. The findings of the study revealed that, balance sheet is negatively related with investment decision (r= -.483; p<.01) while income statement (r= .249; p<.001), notes on the account (r= .230; p<.001), cash flow statement (r= .202; p<.001), value added statement (r= .328; p<.001) and five-year financial summary (r= .191; p<.01) are positively related with investment decision. Findings also revealed that components of published financial statement significantly predicted good investment decision (R²= .983; F_(5,175)=284.5; p<.05) for commercial bank stakeholders. Therefore, it was suggested that Nigeria banks and professional bodies should instigate programs that will increase the knowledge of stakeholders on published financial statement.

Keywords: Commercial banks, Financial statement, Income Statement, Investment decision, Stakeholders.

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

Abstract:

Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Keywords: System of system approach, decision making, cross-border, infrastructure project.

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Authors: Zeynep Sener, Mehtap Dursun

Abstract:

Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most important components of an effective supply chain management system. Due to the expanding competition in healthcare, selecting the right medical device suppliers offers great potential for increasing quality while decreasing costs. This paper proposes a fuzzy decision making approach for medical supplier selection. A real-world medical device supplier selection problem is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed decision methodology.

Keywords: Fuzzy decision making, fuzzy multiple objective programming, medical supply chain, supplier selection.

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Authors: Kamila Janovská, Šárka Vilamová, Petr Besta, Iveta Vozňáková, Roman Kozel

Abstract:

Quantitative methods of economic decision-making as the methodological base of the so called operational research represent an important set of tools for managing complex economic systems,both at the microeconomic level and on the macroeconomic scale. Mathematical models of controlled and controlling processes allow, by means of artificial experiments, obtaining information foroptimalor optimum approaching managerial decision-making.The quantitative methods of economic decision-making usually include a methodology known as structural analysis -an analysisof interdisciplinary production-consumption relations.

Keywords: economic decision-making, mathematical methods, structuralanalysis, technical coefficient

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Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

Abstract:

The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: Decision support system distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management.

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Authors: L. Tao, T. J. Sun, Z. H. Li

Abstract:

The knowledge base of welding defect recognition is essentially incomplete. This characteristic determines that the recognition results do not reflect the actual situation. It also has a further influence on the classification of welding quality. This paper is concerned with the study of a rough set based method to reduce the influence and improve the classification accuracy. At first, a rough set model of welding quality intelligent classification has been built. Both condition and decision attributes have been specified. Later on, groups of the representative multiple compound defects have been chosen from the defect library and then classified correctly to form the decision table. Finally, the redundant information of the decision table has been reducted and the optimal decision rules have been reached. By this method, we are able to reclassify the misclassified defects to the right quality level. Compared with the ordinary ones, this method has higher accuracy and better robustness.

Keywords: intelligent decision, rough set, welding defects, welding quality level

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Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu

Abstract:

A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.

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Authors: Ibidapo O. Akinyemi, Ezekiel F. Adebiyi, Harrison O. D. Longe

Abstract:

The major goal in defining and examining game scenarios is to find good strategies as solutions to the game. A plausible solution is a recommendation to the players on how to play the game, which is represented as strategies guided by the various choices available to the players. These choices invariably compel the players (decision makers) to execute an action following some conscious tactics. In this paper, we proposed a refinement-based heuristic as a machine learning technique for human-like decision making in playing Ayo game. The result showed that our machine learning technique is more adaptable and more responsive in making decision than human intelligence. The technique has the advantage that a search is astutely conducted in a shallow horizon game tree. Our simulation was tested against Awale shareware and an appealing result was obtained.

Keywords: Decision making, Machine learning, Strategy, Ayo game.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique for selecting fighter aircraft for the national air force. The selection of military aircraft is a process consisting of contradictory goals and objectives. When a modern air force needs to choose fighter aircraft to upgrade existing fleets, a multiple criteria decision making analysis and scenario planning for defense acquisition has been put forward. The selection of fighter aircraft for the air defense force is a strategic decision making process, since the purchase or lease of fighter jets, maintenance and operating costs and having a fleet is the biggest cost for the air force. Multiple criteria decision making analysis methods are effectively applied to facilitate decision making from various available options. The selection criteria were determined using the literature on the problem of fighter aircraft selection. The selection of fighter aircraft to be purchased for the air defense forces is handled using a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique that also determines a suitable methodological approach for the defense procurement and fleet upgrade planning process. The aim of this study is to originate an approach to evaluate fighter aircraft alternatives, Su-35, F-35, and TF-X (MMU), based on technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS).

Keywords: Fighter Aircraft, Fighter Aircraft Selection, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA, Su-35, F-35, TF-X (MMU)

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Authors: Cheng-Che Tsai, Huang-Ming Chuang

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of cognitive decision effort in recommendation system, combined with indicators "information quality" and "service quality" from IS success model to exam the awareness of the user for the "recommended system performance". A total of 411 internet user answered a questionnaire assessing their attention of use and satisfaction of recommendation system in internet book store. Quantitative result indicates following research results. First, information quality of recommended system has obvious influence in consumer shopping decision-making process, and the attitude to use the system. Second, in the process of consumer's shopping decision-making, the recommendation system has no significant influence for consumers to pay lower cognitive decision-making effort. Third, e-commerce platform provides recommendations and information is necessary, but the quality of information on user needs must be considered, or they will be other competitors offer homogeneous services replaced.

Keywords: Recommender system, Cognitive decision-making efforts, IS success model, Internet bookstore.

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Authors: I. McCulloh, A. Placona, D. Stewart, D. Gause, K. Kiernan, M. Stuart, C. Zinner, L. Cartwright

Abstract:

We find in our data that an alarming number of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. We observe as many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient-specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision-makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: Decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant.

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus, Madzlan Napiah, Mohd. Faris Khamidi

Abstract:

This paper presents a conceptual model of agreement options for negotiation support in multi-person decision on optimizing high-rise building columns. The decision is complicated since many parties involved in choosing a single alternative from a set of solutions. There are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. Such building columns as alternatives are referred to as agreement options which are determined by identifying the possible decision maker group, followed by determining the optimal solution for each group. The group in this paper is based on three-decision makers preferences that are designer, programmer, and construction manager. Decision techniques applied to determine the relative value of the alternative solutions for performing the function. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied for decision process and game theory based agent system for coalition formation. An n-person cooperative game is represented by the set of all players. The proposed coalition formation model enables each agent to select individually its allies or coalition. It further emphasizes the importance of performance evaluation in the design process and value-based decision.

Keywords: Agreement options, coalition, group choice, game theory, building columns selection.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a new approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the proposed approach, fuzzy decision information related to the aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ranking the alternatives and selecting the best one. The basic procedural step is to transform the fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A numerical example illustrates the proposed approach for the military combat aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

Abstract:

In this paper the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: Analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning.

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Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

Abstract:

Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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Authors: B. Vahdani, S. M. Mousavi, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

Abstract:

Nowadays, the plant location selection has a critical impact on the performance of numerous companies. In this paper, a methodology is presented to solve this problem. The three decision making methods, namely Delphi, AHP and improved VIKOR, are hybridized in order to make the best use of information available based on the decision makers or experts. In this respect, the aim of using Delphi is to select the most influential criteria by a few decision makers. The AHP is utilized to give weights of the selected criteria. Finally, the improved VIKOR method is applied to rank alternatives. At the end of paper, an application example demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Decision making, Plant location selection, Delphi, AHP, Improved VIKOR.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Aircraft have different capabilities and specifications according to the required strategic goals and objectives in operations. With various types on the market with different aircraft characteristics, it becomes difficult to select a suitable aircraft for certain operations and requirements. The entropy weighting method (EWM) is a useful, highly consistent, and reliable method for obtaining the weights of the criteria and is worth integrating with the decision uncertainty distance (DUD) method, which is more applicable and requires less computation than other methods. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the validity and usability of the proposed methodology. Comparing the ranking results matches the distance-based approach, which is the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, which shows the robustness of the entropy DUD hybrid method. Validity analysis shows that the proposed hybrid multiple criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) methodology is quantitatively stable and reliable.

Keywords: aircraft selection, decision uncertainty distance (DUD), multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: Da-kuan Wei, Xian-zhong Zhou, Dong-jun Xin, Zhi-wei Chen

Abstract:

The information systems with incomplete attribute values and fuzzy decisions commonly exist in practical problems. On the base of the notion of variable precision rough set model for incomplete information system and the rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, the variable rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system is constructed, which is the generalization of the variable precision rough set model for incomplete information system and that of rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system. The knowledge reduction and heuristic algorithm, built on the method and theory of precision reduction, are proposed.

Keywords: Rough set, Incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, Limited valued tolerance relation, Knowledge reduction, Variable rough set model

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Authors: Alfonso Bastías, Álvaro González

Abstract:

The actual grow of the infrastructure in develop country require sophisticate ways manage the operation and control the quality served. This research wants to concentrate in the operation of this infrastructure beyond the construction. The infrastructure-s operation involves an uncertain environment, where unexpected variables are present every day and everywhere. Decision makers need to make right decisions with right information/data analyzed most in real time. To adequately support their decisions and decrease any negative impact and collateral effect, they need to use computational tools called decision support systems (DSS), but now the main source of information came from common users thought an extensive crowdsourcing

Keywords: Crowdsourcing, Learning Systems, Decision Support Systems, Infrastructure, Construction.

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Authors: Nur Syibrah Muhamad Naim, Mohd Lazim Abdullah, Che Mohd Imran Che Taib, Abu OsmanMd. Tap

Abstract:

Decision making preferences to certain criteria usually focus on positive degrees without considering the negative degrees. However, in real life situation, evaluation becomes more comprehensive if negative degrees are considered concurrently. Preference is expected to be more effective when considering both positive and negative degrees of preference to evaluate the best selection. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose the conflicting bifuzzy preference relations in group decision making by utilization of a novel score function. The conflicting bifuzzy preference relation is obtained by introducing some modifications on intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations. Releasing the intuitionistic condition by taking into account positive and negative degrees simultaneously and utilizing the novel score function are the main modifications to establish the proposed preference model. The proposed model is tested with a numerical example and proved to be simple and practical. The four-step decision model shows the efficiency of obtaining preference in group decision making.

Keywords: Fuzzy preference relations, score function, conflicting bifuzzy, decision making.

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Authors: Mehdi Kheradmand, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, Abdolreza Zahiri, Khalil Ghorbani

Abstract:

In modeling phenomena, the presence of local conditions may cause the use of a general relation not to produce good results and thus fail to demonstrate local changes. If possible, identifying homogenous limits and providing simple linear relations for each of these limits will increase the accuracy of models. Accordingly, the models are divided into simpler and smaller problems to solve complicated problems, and the obtained answers will be combined. This simple idea can be applied to decision tree models. For this aim, the input data values are divided into several sub-intervals or sub-regions, and an appropriate model is extracted for an appropriate model or equation. This research proposes the M5 decision tree method as a solution to accurately compute the flow discharge in meandering compound channels.

Keywords: Stage-discharge relationship, decision tree, M5 decision tree model, meandering compound channels.

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