Search results for: Decision analysis
9624 Aircraft Selection Using Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Method with Different Data Normalization Techniques
Authors: C. Ardil
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This paper presents an original application of multiple criteria decision making analysis theory to the evaluation of aircraft selection problem. The selection of an optimal, efficient and reliable fleet, network and operations planning policy is one of the most important factors in aircraft selection problem. Given that decision making in aircraft selection involves the consideration of a number of opposite criteria and possible solutions, such a selection can be considered as a multiple criteria decision making analysis problem. This study presents a new integrated approach to decision making by considering the multiple criteria utility theory and the maximal regret minimization theory methods as well as aircraft technical, economical, and environmental aspects. Multiple criteria decision making analysis method uses different normalization techniques to allow criteria to be aggregated with qualitative and quantitative data of the decision problem. Therefore, selecting a suitable normalization technique for the model is also a challenge to provide data aggregation for the aircraft selection problem. To compare the impact of different normalization techniques on the decision problem, the vector, linear (sum), linear (max), and linear (max-min) data normalization techniques were identified to evaluate aircraft selection problem. As a logical implication of the proposed approach, it enhances the decision making process through enabling the decision maker to: (i) use higher level knowledge regarding the selection of criteria weights and the proposed technique, (ii) estimate the ranking of an alternative, under different data normalization techniques and integrated criteria weights after a posteriori analysis of the final rankings of alternatives. A set of commercial passenger aircraft were considered in order to illustrate the proposed approach. The obtained results of the proposed approach were compared using Spearman's rho tests. An analysis of the final rank stability with respect to the changes in criteria weights was also performed so as to assess the sensitivity of the alternative rankings obtained by the application of different data normalization techniques and the proposed approach.
Keywords: Normalization Techniques, Aircraft Selection, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5969623 Adolescents’ Role in Family Buying Decision Making
Authors: Harleen Kaur, Deepika Jindal Singla
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Buying decision making is a complicated process, in which consumer’s decision is under the impact of others. The buying decision making is directed in a way that they have to act as customers in the society. Media and family are key socialising agents for adolescents’. Moreover, changes in the socio-cultural environment in India necessitate that adolescents’ influence in family’s buying decision-making should be investigated. In comparison to Western society, Indian is quite different, when compared in terms of family composition and structure, behaviour, values and norms which effect adolescents’ buying decision-making.
Keywords: Adolescents’, buying behaviour, Indian urban families, consumer socialization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9359622 Pruning Method of Belief Decision Trees
Authors: Salsabil Trabelsi, Zied Elouedi, Khaled Mellouli
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The belief decision tree (BDT) approach is a decision tree in an uncertain environment where the uncertainty is represented through the Transferable Belief Model (TBM), one interpretation of the belief function theory. The uncertainty can appear either in the actual class of training objects or attribute values of objects to classify. In this paper, we develop a post-pruning method of belief decision trees in order to reduce size and improve classification accuracy on unseen cases. The pruning of decision tree has a considerable intention in the areas of machine learning.Keywords: machine learning, uncertainty, belief function theory, belief decision tree, pruning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19139621 An Interval-Based Multi-Attribute Decision Making Approach for Electric Utility Resource Planning
Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh
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This paper presents an interval-based multi-attribute decision making (MADM) approach in support of the decision process with imprecise information. The proposed decision methodology is based on the model of linear additive utility function but extends the problem formulation with the measure of composite utility variance. A sample study concerning with the evaluation of electric generation expansion strategies is provided showing how the imprecise data may affect the choice toward the best solution and how a set of alternatives, acceptable to the decision maker (DM), may be identified with certain confidence.Keywords: Decision Making, Power Generation, ElectricUtilities, Resource Planning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15839620 Critical Analysis of Decision Making Experience with a Machine Learning Approach in Playing Ayo Game
Authors: Ibidapo O. Akinyemi, Ezekiel F. Adebiyi, Harrison O. D. Longe
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The major goal in defining and examining game scenarios is to find good strategies as solutions to the game. A plausible solution is a recommendation to the players on how to play the game, which is represented as strategies guided by the various choices available to the players. These choices invariably compel the players (decision makers) to execute an action following some conscious tactics. In this paper, we proposed a refinement-based heuristic as a machine learning technique for human-like decision making in playing Ayo game. The result showed that our machine learning technique is more adaptable and more responsive in making decision than human intelligence. The technique has the advantage that a search is astutely conducted in a shallow horizon game tree. Our simulation was tested against Awale shareware and an appealing result was obtained.Keywords: Decision making, Machine learning, Strategy, Ayo game.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12989619 Selection of Photovoltaic Solar Power Plant Investment Projects - An ANP Approach
Authors: P. Aragonés-Beltrán, F. Chaparro-González, J. P. Pastor Ferrando, M. García-Melón
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In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is applied to the selection of photovoltaic (PV) solar power projects. These projects follow a long management and execution process from plant site selection to plant start-up. As a consequence, there are many risks of time delays and even of project stoppage. In the case study presented in this paper a top manager of an important Spanish company that operates in the power market has to decide on the best PV project (from four alternative projects) to invest based on risk minimization. The manager identified 50 project execution delay and/or stoppage risks. The influences among elements of the network (groups of risks and alternatives) were identified and analyzed using the ANP multicriteria decision analysis method. After analyzing the results the main conclusion is that the network model can manage all the information of the real-world problem and thus it is a decision analysis model recommended by the authors. The strengths and weaknesses ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also described in the paper.Keywords: Multicriteria decision analysis, Analytic Network Process, Photovoltaic solar power projects.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21359618 Software Product Quality Evaluation Model with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis
Authors: C. Ardil
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This paper presents a software product quality evaluation model based on the ISO/IEC 25010 quality model. The evaluation characteristics and sub characteristics were identified from the ISO/IEC 25010 quality model. The multidimensional structure of the quality model is based on characteristics such as functional suitability, performance efficiency, compatibility, usability, reliability, security, maintainability, and portability, and associated sub characteristics. Random numbers are generated to establish the decision maker’s importance weights for each sub characteristics. Also, random numbers are generated to establish the decision matrix of the decision maker’s final scores for each software product against each sub characteristics. Thus, objective criteria importance weights and index scores for datasets were obtained from the random numbers. In the proposed model, five different software product quality evaluation datasets under three different weight vectors were applied to multiple criteria decision analysis method, preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) for comparison, and sensitivity analysis procedure. This study contributes to provide a better understanding of the application of MCDMA methods and ISO/IEC 25010 quality model guidelines in software product quality evaluation process.
Keywords: ISO/IEC 25010 quality model, multiple criteria decisions making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, PARIS, Software Product Quality Evaluation Model, Software Product Quality Evaluation, Software Evaluation, Software Selection, Software
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4539617 Optimization and GIS-Based Intelligent Decision Support System for Urban Transportation Systems Analysis
Authors: Mohamad K. Hasan, Hameed Al-Qaheri
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Optimization plays an important role in most real world applications that support decision makers to take the right decision regarding the strategic directions and operations of the system they manage. Solutions for traffic management and traffic congestion problems are considered major problems that most decision making authorities for cities around the world are looking for. This review paper gives a full description of the traffic problem as part of the transportation planning process and present a view as a framework of urban transportation system analysis where the core of the system is a transportation network equilibrium model that is based on optimization techniques and that can also be used for evaluating an alternative solution or a combination of alternative solutions for the traffic congestion. Different transportation network equilibrium models are reviewed from the sequential approach to the multiclass combining trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, trip assignment and departure time model. A GIS-Based intelligent decision support system framework for urban transportation system analysis is suggested for implementation where the selection of optimized alternative solutions, single or packages, will be based on an intelligent agent rather than human being which would lead to reduction in time, cost and the elimination of the difficulty, by human being, for finding the best solution to the traffic congestion problem.Keywords: Multiclass simultaneous transportation equilibrium models, transportation planning, urban transportation systems analysis, intelligent decision support system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23119616 Aircraft Selection Process Using Preference Analysis for Reference Ideal Solution (PARIS)
Authors: C. Ardil
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Multiple criteria decision making analysis (MCDMA) methods are applied to many real - life problems in different fields of engineering science and technology. The "preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS)" method is proposed for an efficient MCDMA evaluation of decision problems. The multiple criteria aircraft evaluation approach is based on the integrated the mean weight, entropy weight, PARIS, and TOPSIS method, which eliminates the subjective importance weight assignment process. The evaluation criteria were identified from an extensive literature review of aircraft selection process. The aim of this study is to propose an efficient methodology for handling the aircraft selection process in which the proposed method solves effectively the MCDMA problem. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability and validity of the proposed MCDMA approach.
Keywords: aircraft selection, aircraft, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, mean weight, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS, TOPSIS, VIKOR, ELECTRE, PROMETHEE
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5399615 Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Based on Ignatian Discernment Process
Authors: Pathinathan Theresanathan, Ajay Minj
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Ignatian Discernment Process (IDP) is an intense decision-making tool to decide on life-issues. Decisions are influenced by various factors outside of the decision maker and inclination within. This paper develops IDP in the context of Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) process. Extended VIKOR method is a decision-making method which encompasses even conflict situations and accommodates weightage to various issues. Various aspects of IDP, namely three ways of decision making and tactics of inner desires, are observed, analyzed and articulated within the frame work of fuzzy rules. The decision-making situations are broadly categorized into two types. The issues outside of the decision maker influence the person. The inner feeling also plays vital role in coming to a conclusion. IDP integrates both the categories using Extended VIKOR method. Case studies are carried out and analyzed with FMCDM process. Finally, IDP is verified with an illustrative case study and results are interpreted. A confused person who could not come to a conclusion is able to take decision on a concrete way of life through IDP. The proposed IDP model recommends an integrated and committed approach to value-based decision making.
Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process, fuzzy multi-criteria decision making, Ignatian discernment process, Ignatian discernment, multi-criteria decision making, VIKOR.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12759614 Fuzzy Decision Making via Multiple Attribute
Authors: Behnaz Zohouri, Mahdi Zowghiand, Mohsen haghighi
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In this paper, a method for decision making in fuzzy environment is presented.A new subjective and objective integrated approach is introduced that used to assign weight attributes in fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (FMADM) problems and alternatives and fmally ranked by proposed method.
Keywords: Multiple Attribute Decision Making, Triangular fuzzy numbers, ranking index, Fuzzy Entropy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14799613 Join and Meet Block Based Default Definite Decision Rule Mining from IDT and an Incremental Algorithm
Authors: Chen Wu, Jingyu Yang
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Using maximal consistent blocks of tolerance relation on the universe in incomplete decision table, the concepts of join block and meet block are introduced and studied. Including tolerance class, other blocks such as tolerant kernel and compatible kernel of an object are also discussed at the same time. Upper and lower approximations based on those blocks are also defined. Default definite decision rules acquired from incomplete decision table are proposed in the paper. An incremental algorithm to update default definite decision rules is suggested for effective mining tasks from incomplete decision table into which data is appended. Through an example, we demonstrate how default definite decision rules based on maximal consistent blocks, join blocks and meet blocks are acquired and how optimization is done in support of discernibility matrix and discernibility function in the incomplete decision table.Keywords: rough set, incomplete decision table, maximalconsistent block, default definite decision rule, join and meet block.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12919612 Decision Framework for Cross-Border Railway Infrastructure Projects
Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki
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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.
Keywords: System of system approach, decision making, cross-border, infrastructure project.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18049611 A Simulation Model for Bid Price Decision Making
Authors: R. Sammoura
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In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27779610 Improving Decision Support for Organ Transplant
Authors: I. McCulloh, A. Placona, D. Stewart, D. Gause, K. Kiernan, M. Stuart, C. Zinner, L. Cartwright
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We find in our data that an alarming number of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. We observe as many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient-specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision-makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.
Keywords: Decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1869609 Evolutionary Decision Trees and Software Metrics for Module Defects Identification
Authors: Monica Chiş
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Software metric is a measure of some property of a piece of software or its specification. The aim of this paper is to present an application of evolutionary decision trees in software engineering in order to classify the software modules that have or have not one or more reported defects. For this some metrics are used for detecting the class of modules with defects or without defects.Keywords: Evolutionary decision trees, decision trees, softwaremetrics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17589608 Evaluation Factors of Clinical Decision Support System in u_Healthcare Service
Authors: Sun K. Yoo, Ki-Chang Nam, Hyun-Young Shin, Ho-Seong Moon, Hee Cheol Kang
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Automated intelligent, clinical decision support systems generally promote to help or to assist physicians and patients regarding to prevention of diseases or treatment of illnesses using computer represented knowledge and information. In this paper, assessment factors affecting the proper design of clinical decision support system were investigated. The required procedure steps for gathering the data from clinical trial and extracting the information from large volume of healthcare repositories were listed, which are necessary for validation and verification of evidence-based implementation of clinical decision support system. The goal of this paper is to extract useful evaluation factors affecting the quality of the clinical decision support system in the design, development, and implementation of a computer-based decision support system.
Keywords: Evaluation, Clinical Decision Support System.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22399607 Military Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Multiplicative Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Method
Authors: C. Ardil
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Multiplicative multiple criteria decision making analysis (MCDMA) method is a systematic decision support system to aid decision makers reach appropriate decisions. The application of multiplicative MCDMA in the military aircraft selection problem is significant for proper decision making process, which is the decisive factor in minimizing expenditures and increasing defense capability and capacity. Nine military fighter aircraft alternatives were evaluated by ten decision criteria to solve the decision making problem. In this study, multiplicative MCDMA model aims to evaluate and select an appropriate military fighter aircraft for the Air Force fleet planning. The ranking results of multiplicative MCDMA model were compared with the ranking results of additive MCDMA, logarithmic MCDMA, and regrettive MCDMA models under the L2 norm data normalization technique to substantiate the robustness of the proposed method. The final ranking results indicate the military fighter aircraft Su-57 as the best available solution.
Keywords: Aircraft Selection, Military Fighter Aircraft Selection, Air Force Fleet Planning, Multiplicative MCDMA, Additive MCDMA, Logarithmic MCDMA, Regrettive MCDMA, Mean Weight, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7799606 Comparison of Composite Programming and Compromise Programming for Aircraft Selection Problem Using Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis Method
Authors: C. Ardil
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In this paper, the comparison of composite programming and compromise programming for the aircraft selection problem is discussed using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The decision making process requires the prior definition and fulfillment of certain factors, especially when it comes to complex areas such as aircraft selection problems. The proposed technique gives more efficient results by extending the composite programming and compromise programming, which are widely used in modeling multiple criteria decisions. The proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting aircraft problems.A selection of aircraft was made based on the proposed approach developed in the field of multiple criteria decision making. The model presented is solved by using the following methods: composite programming, and compromise programming. The importance values of the weight coefficients of the criteria are calculated using the mean weight method. The evaluation and ranking of aircraft are carried out using the composite programming and compromise programming methods. In order to determine the stability of the model and the ability to apply the developed composite programming and compromise programming approach, the paper analyzes its sensitivity, which involves changing the value of the coefficient λ and q in the first part. The second part of the sensitivity analysis relates to the application of different multiple criteria decision making methods, composite programming and compromise programming. In addition, in the third part of the sensitivity analysis, the Spearman correlation coefficient of the ranks obtained was calculated which confirms the applicability of all the proposed approaches.
Keywords: composite programming, compromise programming, additive weighted model, multiplicative weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, aircraft selection
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7009605 Ranking Alternatives in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis using Common Weights Based on Ideal and Anti-ideal Frontiers
Authors: Saber Saati Mohtadi, Ali Payan, Azizallah Kord
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One of the most important issues in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is to determine the weights of criteria so that all alternatives can be compared based on the collective performance of criteria. In this paper, one of popular methods in data envelopment analysis (DEA) known as common weights (CWs) is used to determine the weights in MCDA. Two frontiers named ideal and anti-ideal frontiers, instead of ideal and anti-ideal alternatives, are defined based on two new proposed CWs models. Ideal and antiideal frontiers are more flexible than that of alternatives. According to the optimal solutions of these two models, the distances of an alternative from the ideal and anti-ideal frontiers are derived. Then, a relative distance is introduced to measure the value of each alternative. The suggested models are linear and despite weight restrictions are feasible. An example is presented for explaining the method and for comparing to the existing literature.
Keywords: Anti-ideal frontier, Common weights (CWs), Ideal frontier, Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18949604 Research on Platform of Testing Reference Point Effect under Managerial Decision-making Simulation Environment
Authors: Yang Jiang, Zhuchao Yu, Zhu Wang, Xueying Hong
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Reference point effects of top managers exerts an influence on managerial decision-making behaviors. We introduces the main idea of developing the decision behavior testing system designed for top manager in team task circumstance. According to the theory of the reference point effect, study of testing experiments in the reference point effect is carried out. Under managerial decision-making simulation environment, a platform is designed for testing reference point effect. The system uses the outcome of the value of the reference point to report the characteristics of the decision behavior of top managers.
Keywords: reference point effect, decision-making behavior, top manager, managerial decision-making simulation environment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10739603 Negotiation Support for Value-based Decision in Construction
Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus, Isnanto, Annisa Nugraheni, Farida Rahmawati
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A Negotiation Support is required on a value-based decision to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. This study demonstrates a process of negotiation support model for selection of a building system from value-based design perspective. The perspective is based on comparison of function and cost of a building system. Multi criteria decision techniques were applied to determine the relative value of the alternative solutions for performing the function. A satisfying option game theory are applied to the criteria of value-based decision which are LCC (life cycle cost) and function based FAST. The results demonstrate a negotiation process to select priorities of a building system. The support model can be extended to an automated negotiation by combining value based decision method, group decision and negotiation support.
Keywords: NSS, Value-based, Decision, Construction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17339602 Improved C-Fuzzy Decision Tree for Intrusion Detection
Authors: Krishnamoorthi Makkithaya, N. V. Subba Reddy, U. Dinesh Acharya
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As the number of networked computers grows, intrusion detection is an essential component in keeping networks secure. Various approaches for intrusion detection are currently being in use with each one has its own merits and demerits. This paper presents our work to test and improve the performance of a new class of decision tree c-fuzzy decision tree to detect intrusion. The work also includes identifying best candidate feature sub set to build the efficient c-fuzzy decision tree based Intrusion Detection System (IDS). We investigated the usefulness of c-fuzzy decision tree for developing IDS with a data partition based on horizontal fragmentation. Empirical results indicate the usefulness of our approach in developing the efficient IDS.Keywords: Data mining, Decision tree, Feature selection, Fuzzyc- means clustering, Intrusion detection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15799601 Bayesian Decision Approach to Protection on the Flood Event in Upper Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar
Authors: Min Min Swe Zin
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This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.
Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15869600 Using the PARIS Method for Multiple Criteria Decision Making in Unmanned Combat Aircraft Evaluation and Selection
Authors: C. Ardil
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Unmanned combat aircraft (UCA) are expanding significantly in several defense industries, along with artificial intelligence improvements in highly precise technology. UCA is crucial in military settings for targeting enemy elements, and objects. UCA is also utilized for highly precise reconnaissance and surveillance tasks. To select the best alternative for critical missions, a methodical and effective strategy for UCA selection is required. Multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodologies are ideally equipped to handle the complexity of alternative aircraft selection. To analyze UCA alternatives for the selection process, an integrated methodology built on the objective criteria weights and preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS). First, the weights of essential elements are determined using the average weight (AW), standard deviation (SW) and entropy weight (EW) approach. The weights of the evaluation criteria affect the decision-making process. The aircraft choices in the decision problem are then ranked using objective criteria weights along with the PARIS technique. The validation and sensitivity analysis of the proposed MCDM approach are discussed.
Keywords: unmanned combat aircraft (UCA), multiple criteria decision making, MCDM, PARIS
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4869599 Distributed Data-Mining by Probability-Based Patterns
Authors: M. Kargar, F. Gharbalchi
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In this paper a new method is suggested for distributed data-mining by the probability patterns. These patterns use decision trees and decision graphs. The patterns are cared to be valid, novel, useful, and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. By using the suggested method we will be able to extract the useful information from massive and multi-relational data bases.Keywords: Data-mining, Decision tree, Decision graph, Pattern, Relationship.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15599598 Distributed GIS Based Decision Support System for Efficiency Evaluation of Education System: A Case Study of Primary School Education System of Bundelkhand Zone, Uttar Pradesh, India
Authors: Garima Srivastava, R. K. Srivastava, R. C. Vaishya
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Decision Support System (DSS), a query-based system meant to help decision makers to use a variety of information for decision making, plays a very vital role in sustainable growth of any country. For this very purpose it is essential to analyze the educational system because education is the only way through which people can be made aware as to how to sustain our planet. The purpose of this paper is to prepare a decision support system for efficiency evaluation of education system with the help of Distributed Geographical Information System.
Keywords: Distributed GIS, Web GIS, Spatial Decision Support System, Bundelkhand Zone, Efficiency, Primary School Education.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25679597 Vulnerability Analysis for Risk Zones Boundary Definition to Support a Decision Making Process at CBRNE Operations
Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch
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An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.
Keywords: Boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4499596 A Study of the Effectiveness of the Routing Decision Support Algorithm
Authors: Wayne Goodridge, Alexander Nikov, Ashok Sahai
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Multi criteria decision making (MCDM) methods like analytic hierarchy process, ELECTRE and multi-attribute utility theory are critically studied. They have irregularities in terms of the reliability of ranking of the best alternatives. The Routing Decision Support (RDS) algorithm is trying to improve some of their deficiencies. This paper gives a mathematical verification that the RDS algorithm conforms to the test criteria for an effective MCDM method when a linear preference function is considered.
Keywords: Decision support systems, linear preference function, multi-criteria decision-making algorithm, analytic hierarchy process.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15879595 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Selection Using Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis
Authors: C. Ardil
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The selection of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) involves complex decision-making due to the evaluation of numerous alternatives and criteria simultaneously. This process necessitates the consideration of various factors such as payload capacity, maximum speed, endurance, altitude, avionics systems, price, economic life, and maximum range. This study aims to determine the most suitable UAV by taking these criteria into account. To achieve this, the standard fuzzy set methodology is employed, enabling decision-makers to define linguistic terms as references. A practical numerical example is provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Through a successful application, a comparison of different UAVs is conducted, culminating in the selection of the most appropriate vehicle during the final stage.
Keywords: Standard fuzzy sets (SFSs), Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) selection, multiple criteria decision making, MCDM
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 276