Search results for: variable sampling interval

Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

Abstract:

Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time.

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Authors: T. K. Das, N. Senapatil, R. K. Dhal

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An unsteady mixed free convection MHD flow of elastic-viscous incompressible fluid past an infinite vertical porous flat plate is investigated when the presence of heat Source/sink, temperature and concentration are assumed to be oscillating with time and hall effect. The governing equations are solved by complex variable technique. The expressions for the velocity field, temperature field and species concentration are demonstrated in graphs. The effects of the Prandtl number, the Grashof number, modified Grashof number, the Schimidt number, the Hall parameter, Elastic parameter & Magnetic parameter are discussed.

Keywords: MHD, Mixed convective, Elastic-viscous incompressible, rotational, heat transfer, mass transfer, suction and injection.

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Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

Abstract:

recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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Authors: S. Tarighat, F. Shateri

Abstract:

This study explored the relationship between L2 Willingness to Communicate (WTC) of bilinguals and monolinguals in a foreign language using a snowball sampling method to collect questionnaire data from 200 bilinguals and monolinguals studying a foreign language (FL). The results indicated a higher willingness to communicate in a foreign language (WTC-FL) performed by bilinguals compared to that of the monolinguals with a weak significance. Yet a stronger significance was found in the relationship between the age of onset of bilingualism and WTC-FL. The researcher proposed that L2 WTC is indirectly influenced by knowledge of other languages, which can boost L2 confidence and reduce L2 anxiety and consequently lead to higher L2 WTC when learning a different L2. The study also found the age of onset of bilingualism to be a predictor of L2 WTC when learning a FL. The results emphasize the importance of bilingualism and early bilingualism in particular.

Keywords: Bilingualism, foreign language learning, L2 acquisition, willingness to communicate.

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Authors: Shumin Hou, Yourong Li, Sanxing Zhao

Abstract:

Much time series data is generally from continuous dynamic system. Firstly, this paper studies the detection of the nonlinearity of time series from continuous dynamics systems by applying the Phase-randomized surrogate algorithm. Then, the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) method is introduced into nonlinearity test. The results show that under the different sampling conditions, the opposite detection of nonlinearity is obtained via using traditional test statistics methods, which include the third-order autocovariance and the asymmetry due to time reversal. Whereas the DVV method can perform well on determining nonlinear of Lorenz signal. It indicates that the proposed method can describe the continuous dynamics signal effectively.

Keywords: Nonlinearity, Time series, continuous dynamics system, DVV method

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Authors: Luminiţa Duţică

Abstract:

For the music composer Myriam Marbe the musical time and memory represent 2 (complementary) phenomena with conclusive impact on the settlement of new musical ontologies. Summarizing the most important achievements of the contemporary techniques of composition, her vision on the microform presented in The Concert for Daniel Kientzy, saxophone and orchestra transcends the linear and unidirectional time in favour of a flexible, multivectorial speech with spiral developments, where the sound substance is auto(re)generated by analogy with the fundamental processes of the memory. The conceptual model is of an archetypal essence, the music composer being concerned with identifying the mechanisms of the creation process, especially of those specific to the collective creation (of oral tradition). Hence the spontaneity of expression, improvisation tint, free rhythm, micro-interval intonation, coloristictimbral universe dominated by multiphonics and unique sound effects, hence the atmosphere of ritual, however purged by the primary connotations and reprojected into a wonderful spectacular space. The Concert is a work of artistic maturity and enforces respect, among others, by the timbral diversity of the three species of saxophone required by the music composer (baritone, sopranino and alt), in Part III Daniel Kientzy shows the performance of playing two saxophones concomitantly. The score of the music composer Myriam Marbe contains a deeply spiritualized music, full or archetypal symbols, a music whose drama suggests a real cinematographic movement.

Keywords: Archetype, chronogenesis, concert, multiphonics.

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Authors: Tanuj Kanchan, Anadi Gupta, Kewal Krishan

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Human skull is shown to exhibit numerous sexually dimorphic traits. Estimation of sex is a challenging task especially when a part of skull is brought for medicolegal investigation. The present research was planned to evaluate the sexing potential of the dimensions of foramen magnum in forensic identification by craniometric analysis. Length and breadth of the foramen magnum was measured using Vernier calipers and the area of foramen magnum was calculated. The length, breadth, and area of foramen magnum were found to be larger in males than females. Sexual dimorphism index was calculated to estimate the sexing potential of each variable. The study observations are suggestive of the limited utility of the craniometric analysis of foramen magnum during the examination of skull and its parts in estimation of sex.

Keywords: Forensic Anthropology, Skeletal remains, Identification, Sex estimation, Foramen magnum.

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Authors: Hsien-Chou Liao, Yu-Shiang Wang

Abstract:

Surveillance system is widely used in the traffic monitoring. The deployment of cameras is moving toward a ubiquitous camera (UbiCam) environment. In our previous study, a novel service, called GPS-VT, was firstly proposed by incorporating global positioning system (GPS) and visual tracking techniques for the UbiCam environment. The first prototype is called GODTA (GPS-based Moving Object Detection and Tracking Approach). For a moving person carried GPS-enabled mobile device, he can be tracking when he enters the field-of-view (FOV) of a camera according to his real-time GPS coordinate. In this paper, GPS-VT service is applied to the tracking of vehicles. The moving speed of a vehicle is much faster than a person. It means that the time passing through the FOV is much shorter than that of a person. Besides, the update interval of GPS coordinate is once per second, it is asynchronous with the frame rate of the real-time image. The above asynchronous is worsen by the network transmission delay. These factors are the main challenging to fulfill GPS-VT service on a vehicle.In order to overcome the influence of the above factors, a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) is used to predict the possible lane before the vehicle enters the FOV of a camera. Then, a template matching technique is used for the visual tracking of a target vehicle. The experimental result shows that the target vehicle can be located and tracking successfully. The success location rate of the implemented prototype is higher than that of the previous GODTA.

Keywords: visual surveillance, visual tracking, globalpositioning system, intelligent transportation system

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Authors: Malika Yaici, Kamel Hariche, Tim Clarke

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The relationship between eigenstructure (eigenvalues and eigenvectors) and latent structure (latent roots and latent vectors) is established. In control theory eigenstructure is associated with the state space description of a dynamic multi-variable system and a latent structure is associated with its matrix fraction description. Beginning with block controller and block observer state space forms and moving on to any general state space form, we develop the identities that relate eigenvectors and latent vectors in either direction. Numerical examples illustrate this result. A brief discussion of the potential of these identities in linear control system design follows. Additionally, we present a consequent result: a quick and easy method to solve the polynomial eigenvalue problem for regular matrix polynomials.

Keywords: Eigenvalues/Eigenvectors, Latent values/vectors, Matrix fraction description, State space description.

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, A.H. Jafari, S.M.P. Firoozabadi

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Deep Brain Stimulation or DBS is the second solution for Parkinson's Disease. Its three parameters are: frequency, pulse width and voltage. They must be optimized to achieve successful treatment. Nowadays it is done clinically by neurologists and there is not certain numerical method to detect them. The aim of this research is to introduce simulation and modeling of Parkinson's Disease treatment as a computational procedure to select optimum voltage. We recorded finger tremor signals of some Parkinsonian patients under DBS treatment at constant frequency and pulse width but variable voltages; then, we adapted a new model to fit these data. The optimum voltages obtained by data fitting results were the same as neurologists- commented voltages, which means modeling can be used as an engineering method to select optimum stimulation voltages.

Keywords: modeling, Deep Brain Stimulation, Parkinson'sdisease, tremor.

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Authors: M. De la Sen, O. Barambones

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This paper presents an indirect adaptive stabilization scheme for first-order continuous-time systems under saturated input which is described by a sigmoidal function. The singularities are avoided through a modification scheme for the estimated plant parameter vector so that its associated Sylvester matrix is guaranteed to be non-singular and then the estimated plant model is controllable. The modification mechanism involves the use of a hysteresis switching function. An alternative hybrid scheme, whose estimated parameters are updated at sampling instants is also given to solve a similar adaptive stabilization problem. Such a scheme also uses hysteresis switching for modification of the parameter estimates so as to ensure the controllability of the estimated plant model.

Keywords: Hybrid dynamic systems, discrete systems, saturated input, control, stabilization.

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Authors: Raisa Kh. Bolotnova, Marat N. Galimzianov, Andrey S. Topolnikov, Uliana O. Agisheva, Valeria A. Buzina

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The paper presents the results of theoretical and numerical modeling of propagation of shock waves in bubbly liquids related to nonlinear effects (realistic equation of state, chemical reactions, two-dimensional effects). On the basis on the Rankine- Hugoniot equations the problem of determination of parameters of passing and reflected shock waves in gas-liquid medium for isothermal, adiabatic and shock compression of the gas component is solved by using the wide-range equation of state of water in the analitic form. The phenomenon of shock wave intensification is investigated in the channel of variable cross section for the propagation of a shock wave in the liquid filled with bubbles containing chemically active gases. The results of modeling of the wave impulse impact on the solid wall covered with bubble layer are presented.

Keywords: bubbly liquid, cavitation, equation of state, shock wave

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Authors: Labiba Gilani, Asifullah Khan, Anwar M. Mirza

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This paper introduces a technique of distortion estimation in image watermarking using Genetic Programming (GP). The distortion is estimated by considering the problem of obtaining a distorted watermarked signal from the original watermarked signal as a function regression problem. This function regression problem is solved using GP, where the original watermarked signal is considered as an independent variable. GP-based distortion estimation scheme is checked for Gaussian attack and Jpeg compression attack. We have used Gaussian attacks of different strengths by changing the standard deviation. JPEG compression attack is also varied by adding various distortions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to detect the watermark even in the case of strong distortions and is more robust against attacks.

Keywords: Blind Watermarking, Genetic Programming (GP), Fitness Function, Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT).

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Authors: Ephraim Gower, Thato Tsalaile, Monageng Kgwadi, Malcolm Hawksford.

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This paper introduces a new point estimation algorithm, with particular focus on coherent noise suppression, given several measurements of the device under test where it is assumed that 1) the noise is first-order stationery and 2) the device under test is linear and time-invariant. The algorithm exploits the robustness of the Pitman estimator of the Cauchy location parameter through the initial scaling of the test signal by a centred Gaussian variable of predetermined variance. It is illustrated through mathematical derivations and simulation results that the proposed algorithm is more accurate and consistently robust to outliers for different tailed density functions than the conventional methods of sample mean (coherent averaging technique) and sample median search.

Keywords: Central limit theorem, Fisher-Cramer Rao, gamma function, Pitman estimator.

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Authors: Peristera A. Baziana

Abstract:

The idea of the asynchronous transmission in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) ring MANs is studied in this paper. Especially, we present an efficient access technique to coordinate the collisions-free transmission of the variable sizes of IP traffic in WDM ring core networks. Each node is equipped with a tunable transmitter and a tunable receiver. In this way, all the wavelengths are exploited for both transmission and reception. In order to evaluate the performance measures of average throughput, queuing delay and packet dropping probability at the buffers, a simulation model that assumes symmetric access rights among the nodes is developed based on Poisson statistics. Extensive numerical results show that the proposed protocol achieves apart from high bandwidth exploitation for a wide range of offered load, fairness of queuing delay and dropping events among the different packets size categories.

Keywords: Asynchronous transmission, collision avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing.

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Authors: Duygu Aydin

Abstract:

Advertising today has already become an integral part of human life as a building block of the consumer community. A component of the value chain of the media, advertising sector is struggling increasingly harder to find new methods to reach consumers. The tendency towards experimental marketing practices is increasing day by day, especially to divert consumers from the idea “They are selling something to me.” It is therefore considered a good idea to investigate the trust in ad media of consumers, who are today exposed to a great bulk of information from advertising sector. In this study, the current value of ad media for the young consumer will be investigated. Data on various ad media reliability will be comparatively analyzed and young consumers will be traced by including university students in the study. In this research, which will be performed on students studying at the Selçuk University (Turkey) by random sampling method, data will be obtained by survey technique and evaluated by a statistical analysis.

Keywords: Trust in advertising, ad medium, media.

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Authors: Wei-Lun Hsu, Mon-Jyh Lin, Jyh-Ping Hsu

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The dissolution of spherical particles in liquids is analyzed dynamically. Here, we consider the case the dissolution of solute yields a solute-free solid phase in the outer portion of a particle. As dissolution proceeds, the interface between the undissolved solid phase and the solute-free solid phase moves towards the center of the particle. We assume that there exist two resistances for the diffusion of solute molecules: the resistance due to the solute-free portion of the particle and that due to a surface layer near solid-liquid interface. In general, the equation governing the dynamic behavior of dissolution needs to be solved numerically. However, analytical expressions for the temporal variation of the size of the undissoved portion of a particle and the variation of dissolution time can be obtained in some special cases. The present analysis takes the effect of variable bulk solute concentration on dissolution into account.

Keywords: dissolution of particles, surface layer, shrinking core model, dissolution time.

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Authors: Zanariah Abdul Majid, Mohamed Suleiman

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the developed two point block method designed for two processors for solving directly non stiff large systems of higher order ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The method calculates the numerical solution at two points simultaneously and produces two new equally spaced solution values within a block and it is possible to assign the computational tasks at each time step to a single processor. The algorithm of the method was developed in C language and the parallel computation was done on a parallel shared memory environment. Numerical results are given to compare the efficiency of the developed method to the sequential timing. For large problems, the parallel implementation produced 1.95 speed-up and 98% efficiency for the two processors.

Keywords: Numerical methods, parallel method, block method, higher order ODEs.

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Authors: X. Mamaqi, J.Miguel, P. Olave

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The aim of this paper is to provide an empirical evidence about the effects that the management of continuous training have on employability (or employment stability) in the Spanish labour market. With this purpose a binary logit model with interaction effect is been used. The dependent variable includes two situations of the active workers: continuous and discontinuous employability. To distinguish between them an Employability Index Stability (ESI) was calculated taking into account two factors: time worked and job security. Various aspects of the continuous training and personal workers data are used as independent variables. The data obtained from a survey of a sample of 918 employed have revealed a relationship between the likelihood of continuous employability and continuous training received. The empirical results support the positive and significant relationship between various aspects of the training provided by firms and employability likelihood of the workers, postulate alike from a theoretical point of view.

Keywords: training management, employability/employmentstability, binary logit model, interaction effect, Spanish marketlabour.

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Authors: Perapong Vichitkraivin, Orachat Chitsobhuk

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In this paper, an improvement of PDLZW implementation with a new dictionary updating technique is proposed. A unique dictionary is partitioned into hierarchical variable word-width dictionaries. This allows us to search through dictionaries in parallel. Moreover, the barrel shifter is adopted for loading a new input string into the shift register in order to achieve a faster speed. However, the original PDLZW uses a simple FIFO update strategy, which is not efficient. Therefore, a new window based updating technique is implemented to better classify the difference in how often each particular address in the window is referred. The freezing policy is applied to the address most often referred, which would not be updated until all the other addresses in the window have the same priority. This guarantees that the more often referred addresses would not be updated until their time comes. This updating policy leads to an improvement on the compression efficiency of the proposed algorithm while still keep the architecture low complexity and easy to implement.

Keywords: lossless data compression, LZW algorithm, PDLZW algorithm, WSC and dictionary update.

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Authors: Tao Quang Bang, Insu Jeon

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Most CT reconstruction system x-ray computed tomography (CT) is a well established visualization technique in medicine and nondestructive testing. However, since CT scanning requires sampling of radiographic projections from different viewing angles, common CT systems with mechanically moving parts are too slow for dynamic imaging, for instance of multiphase flows or live animals. A large number of X-ray projections are needed to reconstruct CT images, so the collection and calculation of the projection data consume too much time and harmful for patient. For the purpose of solving the problem, in this study, we proposed a method for tomographic reconstruction of a sample from a limited number of x-ray projections by using linear interpolation method. In simulation, we presented reconstruction from an experimental x-ray CT scan of a Aluminum phantom that follows to two steps: X-ray projections will be interpolated using linear interpolation method and using it for CT reconstruction based upon Ordered Subsets Expectation Maximization (OSEM) method.

Keywords: CT reconstruction, X-ray projections, Interpolation technique, OSEM

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Authors: P. Suparada, D. Eakapotch

Abstract:

This research’s objectives were to analyze the using of new media in the form of set up candid clip that affects the product and presenter, to study the effectiveness of using new media in the form of set up candid clip in order to increase the circulation and audience satisfaction and to use the earned information and knowledge to develop the communication for publicizing and advertising via new media. This research is qualitative research based on questionnaire from 50 random sampling representative samples and in-depth interview from experts in publicizing and advertising fields. The findings indicated the positive and negative effects to the brands’ image and presenters’ image of product named “Scotch 100” and “Snickers” that used set up candid clips via new media for publicizing and advertising in Thailand. It will be useful for fields of publicizing and advertising in the new media forms.

Keywords: Candid Clip, Effect, New Media, Social Network.

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Authors: Praseeda Lekshmi.V, Dr.M.Sasikumar

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Facial expression analysis is rapidly becoming an area of intense interest in computer science and human-computer interaction design communities. The most expressive way humans display emotions is through facial expressions. In this paper we present a method to analyze facial expression from images by applying Gabor wavelet transform (GWT) and Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) on face images. Radial Basis Function (RBF) Network is used to classify the facial expressions. As a second stage, the images are preprocessed to enhance the edge details and non uniform down sampling is done to reduce the computational complexity and processing time. Our method reliably works even with faces, which carry heavy expressions.

Keywords: Face Expression, Radial Basis Function, GaborWavelet Transform, Human Computer Interaction.

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Authors: Cornelia-Eugenia Munteanu

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to present the diagnostic contribution that the screening instrument, Mini-Mental State Examination-2: Expanded Version (MMSE-2:EV), brings in detecting the cognitive impairment or in monitoring the progress of degenerative disorders. The diagnostic signification is underlined by the interpretation of the MMSE-2:EV scores, resulted from the test application to patients with mild and major neurocognitive disorders. The cases were selected from current practice, in order to cover vast and significant neurocognitive pathology: mild cognitive impairment, Alzheimer’s disease, vascular dementia, mixed dementia, Parkinson’s disease, conversion of the mild cognitive impairment into Alzheimer’s disease. The MMSE-2:EV version was used: it was applied one month after the initial assessment, three months after the first reevaluation and then every six months, alternating the blue and red forms. Correlated with age and educational level, the raw scores were converted in T scores and then, with the mean and the standard deviation, the z scores were calculated. The differences of raw scores between the evaluations were analyzed from the point of view of statistic signification, in order to establish the progression in time of the disease. The results indicated that the psycho-diagnostic approach for the evaluation of the cognitive impairment with MMSE-2:EV is safe and the application interval is optimal. In clinical settings with a large flux of patients, the application of the MMSE-2:EV is a safe and fast psychodiagnostic solution. The clinicians can draw objective decisions and for the patients: it does not take too much time and energy, it does not bother them and it doesn’t force them to travel frequently.

Keywords: MMSE-2, dementia, cognitive impairment, neuropsychology.

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Authors: M. M. Islam, Rajib K. Saha, Abdullah A. Amin, M. Z. Haq

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The autonomous mobile robot was designed and implemented which was capable of navigating in the industrial environments and did a job of picking objects from variable height and delivering it to another location following a predefined trajectory. In developing country like Bangladesh industrial robotics is not very prevalent yet, due to the high installation cost. The objective of this project was to develop an autonomous mobile robot for industrial application using the available resources in the local market at lower manufacturing cost. The mechanical system of the robot was comprised of locomotion, gripping and elevation system. Grippers were designed to grip objects of a predefined shape. Cartesian elevation system was designed for vertical movement of the gripper. PIC18F452 microcontroller was the brain of the control system. The prototype autonomous robot was fabricated for relatively lower load than the industry and the performance was tested in a virtual industrial environment created within the laboratory to realize the effectiveness.

Keywords: Industrial application, autonomous mobile robot, appropriate technology.

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Authors: V. J. Pillewan, D. N. Raut, K. N. Patil, D. K. Shinde

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Forging, milling, turning, grinding and shaping etc. are the various industrial manufacturing processes which generate the metal waste. Grinding is extensively used in the finishing operation. The waste generated contains significant impurities apart from the metal particles. Due to these significant impurities, it becomes difficult to process and gets usually dumped in the landfills which create environmental problems. Therefore, it becomes essential to reuse metal waste to create value added products. Powder injection molding process is used for producing the porous metal matrix framework. This paper discusses the presented design of the porous framework to be used for the liquid filter application. Different parameters are optimized to obtain the better strength framework with variable porosity. Carbon nanotubes are used as reinforcing materials to enhance the strength of the metal matrix framework.

Keywords: Grinding waste, powder injection molding, carbon nanotubes, metal matrix composites.

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Authors: Salam Khalifa, Naveed Ahmed

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We present a new method to reconstruct a temporally coherent 3D animation from single or multi-view RGB-D video data using unbiased feature point sampling. Given RGB-D video data, in form of a 3D point cloud sequence, our method first extracts feature points using both color and depth information. In the subsequent steps, these feature points are used to match two 3D point clouds in consecutive frames independent of their resolution. Our new motion vectors based dynamic alignement method then fully reconstruct a spatio-temporally coherent 3D animation. We perform extensive quantitative validation using novel error functions to analyze the results. We show that despite the limiting factors of temporal and spatial noise associated to RGB-D data, it is possible to extract temporal coherence to faithfully reconstruct a temporally coherent 3D animation from RGB-D video data.

Keywords: 3D video, 3D animation, RGB-D video, Temporally Coherent 3D Animation.

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Irena Palić

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This paper examines economic and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development influence on recently increasing Internet purchases by individuals for European Union member states. After a growing trend for Internet purchases in EU27 was noticed, all possible regression analysis was applied using nine independent variables in 2011. Finally, two linear regression models were studied in detail. Conducted simple linear regression analysis confirmed the research hypothesis that the Internet purchases in analyzed EU countries is positively correlated with statistically significant variable Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc). Also, analyzed multiple linear regression model with four regressors, showing ICT development level, indicates that ICT development is crucial for explaining the Internet purchases by individuals, confirming the research hypothesis.

Keywords: European Union, Internet purchases, multiple linear regression model, outlier

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Authors: Yen-Chieh Wen, Ching-Hui Lin

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The main purpose of this study is to analyze climbers involved in motivation and risk perception and analysis of the predictive ability of the risk perception "mountaineering" involved in motivation. This study used questionnaires, to have to climb the 3000m high mountain in Taiwan climbers object to carry out an investigation in order to non-random sampling, a total of 231 valid questionnaires were. After statistical analysis, the study found that: 1. Climbers the highest climbers involved in motivation "to enjoy the natural beauty of the fun. 2 climbers for climbers "risk perception" the highest: the natural environment of risk. 3. Climbers “seeking adventure stimulate", “competence achievement" motivation highly predictive of risk perception. Based on these findings, this study not only practices the recommendations of the outdoor leisure industry, and also related research proposals for future researchers.

Keywords: Mountaineering, motivation, risk perception, decision-making.

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

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In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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