Search results for: generalized gamma distribution
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2390

Search results for: generalized gamma distribution

1550 Application of Generalized Taguchi and Design of Experiment Methodology for Rebar Production at an Integrated Steel Plant

Authors: S. B. V. S. P. Sastry, V. V. S. Kesava Rao

Abstract:

In this paper, x-ray impact of Taguchi method and design of experiment philosophy to project relationship between various factors leading to output yield strength of rebar is studied. In bar mill of an integrated steel plant, there are two production lines called as line 1 and line 2. The metallic properties e.g. yield strength of finished product of the same material is varying for a particular grade material when rolled simultaneously in both the lines. A study has been carried out to set the process parameters at optimal level for obtaining equal value of yield strength simultaneously for both lines.

Keywords: Bar mill, design of experiment, Taguchi, yield strength.

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1549 A Fitted Random Sampling Scheme for Load Distribution in Grid Networks

Authors: O. A. Rahmeh, P. Johnson, S. Lehmann

Abstract:

Grid networks provide the ability to perform higher throughput computing by taking advantage of many networked computer-s resources to solve large-scale computation problems. As the popularity of the Grid networks has increased, there is a need to efficiently distribute the load among the resources accessible on the network. In this paper, we present a stochastic network system that gives a distributed load-balancing scheme by generating almost regular networks. This network system is self-organized and depends only on local information for load distribution and resource discovery. The in-degree of each node is refers to its free resources, and job assignment and resource discovery processes required for load balancing is accomplished by using fitted random sampling. Simulation results show that the generated network system provides an effective, scalable, and reliable load-balancing scheme for the distributed resources accessible on Grid networks.

Keywords: Complex networks, grid networks, load-balancing, random sampling.

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1548 The Dynamics of Oil Bodies in A. thaliana Seeds: A Mathematical Model of Biogenesis and Coalescence

Authors: G. Trigui, B. Laroche, M. Miquel, B. Dubreucq, A. Trubuil

Abstract:

The subcellular organelles called oil bodies (OBs) are lipid-filled quasi-spherical droplets produced from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and then released into the cytoplasm during seed development. It is believed that an OB grows by coalescence with other OBs and that its stability depends on the composition of oleosins, major proteins inserted in the hemi membrane that covers OBs. In this study, we measured the OB-volume distribution from different genotypes of A. thaliana after 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 days of seed development. In order to test the hypothesis of OBs dynamics, we developed a simple mathematical model using non-linear differential equations inspired from the theory of coagulation. The model describes the evolution of OB-volume distribution during the first steps of seed development by taking into consideration the production of OBs, the increase of triacylglycerol volume to be stored, and the growth by coalescence of OBs. Fitted parameters values show an increase in the OB production and coalescence rates in A. thaliana oleosin mutants compared to wild type.

Keywords: Biogenesis, coalescence, oil body, oleosin, population dynamics.

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1547 Automated Buffer Box Assembly Cell Concept for the Canadian Used Fuel Packing Plant

Authors: Dimitrie Marinceu, Alan Murchison

Abstract:

The Canadian Used Fuel Container (UFC) is a mid-size hemispherical headed copper coated steel container measuring 2.5 meters in length and 0.5 meters in diameter containing 48 used fuel bundles. The contained used fuel produces significant gamma radiation requiring automated assembly processes to complete the assembly. The design throughput of 2,500 UFCs per year places constraints on equipment and hot cell design for repeatability, speed of processing, robustness and recovery from upset conditions. After UFC assembly, the UFC is inserted into a Buffer Box (BB). The BB is made from adequately pre-shaped blocks (lower and upper block) and Highly Compacted Bentonite (HCB) material. The blocks are practically ‘sandwiching’ the UFC between them after assembly. This paper identifies one possible approach for the BB automatic assembly cell and processes. Automation of the BB assembly will have a significant positive impact on nuclear safety, quality, productivity, and reliability.

Keywords: Used fuel packing plant, automatic assembly cell, used fuel container, buffer box, deep geological repository.

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1546 Creating Maintenance Cost Model for University Buildings

Authors: AbdulLateef A. Olanrewaju, Arazi Idrus, Mohd F. Khamidi

Abstract:

Maintenance costs incurred on building differs. The difference can be as results of the types, functions, age, building health index, size, form height, location and complexity of the building. These are contributing to the difficulty in maintenance development of deterministic maintenance cost model. This paper is concerns with reporting the preliminary findings on the creation of building maintenance cost distributions for universities in Malaysia. This study is triggered by the need to provide guides on maintenance costs distributions for decision making. For this purpose, a survey questionnaire was conducted to investigate the distribution of maintenance costs in the universities. Altogether, responses were received from twenty universities comprising both private and publicly owned. The research found that engineering services, roofing and finishes were the elements contributing the larger segment of the maintenance costs. Furthermore, the study indicates the significance of maintenance cost distribution as decision making tool towards maintenance management.

Keywords: Performance matrix, university buildings, costmodel, Malaysia

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1545 Existence and Global Exponential Stability of Periodic Solutions of Cellular Neural Networks with Distributed Delays and Impulses on Time Scales

Authors: Daiming Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, by using Mawhin-s continuation theorem of coincidence degree and a method based on delay differential inequality, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions of cellular neural networks with distributed delays and impulses on time scales. The results of this paper generalized previously known results.

Keywords: Periodic solutions, global exponential stability, coincidence degree, M-matrix.

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1544 Transient Three Dimensional FE Modeling for Thermal Analysis of Pulsed Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding of Aluminum Alloy

Authors: N. Karunakaran, V. Balasubramanian

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a study aimed at establishing the temperature distribution during the welding of aluminum alloy plates by Pulsed Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (PCGTAW) and Constant Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (CCGTAW) processes. Pulsing of the GTA welding current influences the dimensions and solidification rate of the fused zone, it also reduces the weld pool volume hence a narrower bead. In this investigation, the base material considered was aluminum alloy AA 6351 T6, which is finding use in aircraft, automobile and high-speed train components. A finite element analysis was carried out using ANSYS, and the results of the FEA were compared with the experimental results. It is evident from the study that the finite element analysis using ANSYS can be effectively used to model PCGTAW process for finding temperature distribution.

Keywords: Gas tungsten arc welding, pulsed current, finite element analysis, thermal analysis, aluminum alloy.

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1543 Residence Time Distribution in a Two Impinging Streams Cyclone Reactor: CFD Prediction and Experimental Validation

Authors: Nahid Ghasemi, Morteza Sohrabi, Yasan Soleymani

Abstract:

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in a reactor, thus allowing the process engineer to better understand mixing performance of the reactor.This paper discusses computational studies to investigate flow patterns in a two impinging streams cyclone reactor(TISCR) . Flow in the reactor was modeled with computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Utilizing the Eulerian- Lagrangian approach, implemented in FLUENT (V6.3.22), particle trajectories were obtained by solving the particle force balance equations. From simulation results obtained at different Δts, the mean residence time (tm) and the mean square deviation (σ2) were calculated. a good agreement can be observed between predicted and experimental data. Simulation results indicate that the behavior of complex reactor systems can be predicted using the CFD technique with minimum data requirement for validation.

Keywords: Impinging streams reactor, Residence timedistribution, CFD, Eulerian-Lagrangian approach

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1542 Redesigning Business Processes: A Method Based on Simulation and Process Mining Techniques

Authors: Zahra Mohammadnazari, Fateme Rostambeygi, Fatemeh Dehrouyeh, Hwang Ki-Soon, Amir Aghsami

Abstract:

Corporations have always prioritized efforts to examine and improve processes. Various metrics, such as the cost and time required to implement the process and can be specified in this regard. Process improvement can be defined as an improvement of these indicators. This is accomplished by looking at prospective adjustments to the current executive process model or the resources allotted to it. Research has been conducted in this paper to the improve the procurement process and aims to explore assessment prospects in the project using a combination of process mining and simulation (benefiting from Play-In and Play-Out methodologies). To run the simulation, we will need to complete the control flow diagram, institution settings, resource settings, and activity settings. The process of mining event logs yields the process control flow. However, both the entry of institutions and the distribution of resources must be modeled. The rate of admission of institutions and the distribution of time for the implementation of activities will be determined in the next step.

Keywords: Business reengineering, Petri net, process-based simulation, process mining.

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1541 Thixomixing as Novel Method for Fabrication Aluminum Composite with Carbon and Alumina Fibers

Authors: Ebrahim Akbarzadeh, Josep A. Picas Barrachina, Maite Baile Puig

Abstract:

This study focuses on a novel method for dispersion and distribution of reinforcement under high intensive shear stress to produce metal composites. The polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based short carbon fiber (Csf) and Nextel 610 alumina fiber were dispersed under high intensive shearing at mushy zone in semi-solid of A356 by a novel method. The bundles and clusters were embedded by infiltration of slurry into the clusters, thus leading to a uniform microstructure. The fibers were embedded homogenously into the aluminum around 576-580°C with around 46% of solid fraction. Other experiments at 615°C and 568°C which are contained 0% and 90% solid respectively were not successful for dispersion and infiltration of aluminum into bundles of Csf. The alumina fiber has been cracked by high shearing load. The morphologies and crystalline phase were evaluated by SEM and XRD. The adopted thixo-process effectively improved the adherence and distribution of Csf into Al that can be developed to produce various composites by thixomixing.

Keywords: Aluminum, carbon fiber, alumina fiber, thixomixing, adhesion.

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1540 Assessment of Pollution of the Rustavi City’s Atmosphere with Microaerosols

Authors: N. Gigauri, A. Surmava

Abstract:

According to observational data, experimental measurements and numerical modelling, the pollution of one of the industrial centers of Georgia, Rustavi City’s atmosphere with micro aerosols are assessed. Monthly, daily and hourly changes of the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the city atmosphere are analyzed. It is accepted that PM2.5 concentrations are always lower than PM10 concentrations, but their change curve is the same. In addition, it has been noted that the maximum concentrations of particles in the atmosphere of Rustavi city will be reached at any part of the day, which is determined by the total impact of the traffic flow and industrial facilities. Through numerical modelling, the influence of background western light air, gentle and fresh breeze on the distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere was calculated. Calculations showed that background light air and gentle breeze lead to an increase the concentrations of microaerosols in the city's atmosphere, while fresh breeze contributes to the dispersion of dusty clouds. As a result, the level of dust in the city is decreasing, but the distribution area is expanding.

Keywords: Air pollution, numerical modeling, experimental measurement, PM2.5, PM10.

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1539 Forecasting Malaria Cases in Bujumbura

Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

Abstract:

The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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1538 Unsteady 3D Post-Stall Aerodynamics Accounting for Effective Loss in Camber Due to Flow Separation

Authors: Aritras Roy, Rinku Mukherjee

Abstract:

The current study couples a quasi-steady Vortex Lattice Method and a camber correcting technique, ‘Decambering’ for unsteady post-stall flow prediction. The wake is force-free and discrete such that the wake lattices move with the free-stream once shed from the wing. It is observed that the time-averaged unsteady coefficient of lift sees a relative drop at post-stall angles of attack in comparison to its steady counterpart for some angles of attack. Multiple solutions occur at post-stall and three different algorithms to choose solutions in these regimes show both unsteadiness and non-convergence of the iterations. The distribution of coefficient of lift on the wing span also shows sawtooth. Distribution of vorticity changes both along span and in the direction of the free-stream as the wake develops over time with distinct roll-up, which increases with time.

Keywords: Post-stall, unsteady, wing, aerodynamics.

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1537 Reliability Approximation through the Discretization of Random Variables using Reversed Hazard Rate Function

Authors: Tirthankar Ghosh, Dilip Roy, Nimai Kumar Chandra

Abstract:

Sometime it is difficult to determine the exact reliability for complex systems in analytical procedures. Approximate solution of this problem can be provided through discretization of random variables. In this paper we describe the usefulness of discretization of a random variable using the reversed hazard rate function of its continuous version. Discretization of the exponential distribution has been demonstrated. Applications of this approach have also been cited. Numerical calculations indicate that the proposed approach gives very good approximation of reliability of complex systems under stress-strength set-up. The performance of the proposed approach is better than the existing discrete concentration method of discretization. This approach is conceptually simple, handles analytic intractability and reduces computational time. The approach can be applied in manufacturing industries for producing high-reliable items.

Keywords: Discretization, Reversed Hazard Rate, Exponential distribution, reliability approximation, engineering item.

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1536 Effects of Discharge Fan on the Drying Efficiency in Flat-bed type Dryer

Authors: Jafar Hashemi, Reza Tabatabaekoloor, Toshinori Kimura

Abstract:

The study of interaction among the grain, moisture, and the surrounding space (air) is key to understanding the graindrying process. In Iran, rice (mostly Indica type) is dried by flat bed type dryer until the final MC reaches to 6 to 8%. The experiments were conducted to examine the effect of application of discharge fan with different heights of paddy on the drying efficiency. Experiments were designed based on two different configurations of the drying methods; with and without discharge fan with three different heights of paddy including; 5, 10, and 15 cm. The humid heated air will be going out immediately by the suction of discharge fan. The drying time is established upon the average final MC to achieve about 8%. To save energy and reduce the drying time, the distribution of temperature between layers should be fast and uniform with minimum difference; otherwise the difference of MC gradient between layers will be high and will induce grain breakage. The difference of final MC between layers in the two methods was 48-73%. The steady state of temperature between the two methods has saved time in the range of 10-20%, and the efficiency of temperature distribution increased 17-26% by the use of discharge fan.

Keywords: FBT Dryer, Final MC, Discharge Fan.

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1535 A Fully-Automated Disturbance Analysis Vision for the Smart Grid Based on Smart Switch Data

Authors: Bernardo Cedano, Ahmed H. Eltom, Bob Hay, Jim Glass, Raga Ahmed

Abstract:

The deployment of smart grid devices such as smart meters and smart switches (SS) supported by a reliable and fast communications system makes automated distribution possible, and thus, provides great benefits to electric power consumers and providers alike. However, more research is needed before the full utility of smart switch data is realized. This paper presents new automated switching techniques using SS within the electric power grid. A concise background of the SS is provided, and operational examples are shown. Organization and presentation of data obtained from SS are shown in the context of the future goal of total automation of the distribution network. The description of application techniques, the examples of success with SS, and the vision outlined in this paper serve to motivate future research pertinent to disturbance analysis automation.

Keywords: Disturbance automation, electric power grid, smart grid, smart switch.

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1534 Finite-time Stability Analysis of Fractional-order with Multi-state Time Delay

Authors: Liqiong Liu, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

In this paper, the finite-time stabilization of a class of multi-state time delay of fractional-order system is proposed. First, we define finite-time stability with the fractional-order system. Second, by using Generalized Gronwall's approach and the methods of the inequality, we get some conditions of finite-time stability for the fractional system with multi-state delay. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the result.

Keywords: Finite-time stabilization, fractional-order system, Gronwall inequality.

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1533 Density Estimation using Generalized Linear Model and a Linear Combination of Gaussians

Authors: Aly Farag, Ayman El-Baz, Refaat Mohamed

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

Keywords: Logistic regression model, Expectationmaximization, Segmentation.

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1532 Form of Distribution of Traffic Accident and Environment Factors of Road Affecting of Traffic Accident in Dusit District, Only Area Responsible of Samsen Police Station

Authors: Musthaya Patchanee

Abstract:

This research aimed to study form of traffic distribution and environmental factors of road that affect traffic accidents in Dusit District, only areas responsible of Samsen Police Station. Data used in this analysis is the secondary data of traffic accident case from year 2011. Observed area units are 15 traffic lines that are under responsible of Samsen Police Station. Technique and method used are the Cartographic Method, the Correlation Analysis, and the Multiple Regression Analysis. The results of form of traffic accidents show that, the Samsen Road area had most traffic accidents (24.29%), second was Rachvithi Road(18.10%), third was Sukhothai Road (15.71%), fourth was Rachasrima Road (12.38%), and fifth was Amnuaysongkram Road(7.62%). The result from Dusit District, onlyareasresponsibleofSamsen police station, has suggested that the scale of accidents have high positive correlation with statistic significant at level 0.05 and the frequency of travel (r=0.857). Traffic intersection point (r=0.763)and traffic control equipments (r=0.713) are relevant factors respectively. By using the Multiple Regression Analysis, travel frequency is the only one that has considerable influences on traffic accidents in Dusit district only Samsen Police Station area. Also, a factor in frequency of travel can explain the change in traffic accidents scale to 73.40 (R2 = 0.734). By using the Multiple regression summation from analysis was Ŷ=-7.977+0.044X6

Keywords: Form of Traffic Distribution, Environmental Factors of road, Traffic Accidents, Dusit District.

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1531 Influence of Maximum Fatigue Load on Probabilistic Aspect of Fatigue Crack Propagation Life at Specified Grown Crack in Magnesium Alloys

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The principal purpose of this paper is to find the influence of maximum fatigue load on the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack in magnesium alloys. The experiments of fatigue crack propagation are carried out in laboratory air under different conditions of the maximum fatigue loads to obtain the fatigue crack propagation data for the statistical analysis. In order to analyze the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life, the goodness-of fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack is implemented through Anderson-Darling test. The good probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is also verified under the conditions of the maximum fatigue loads.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation life, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load, probability.

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1530 An AFM Approach of RBC Micro and Nanoscale Topographic Features during Storage

Authors: K. Santacruz-Gomez, E. Silva-Campa, S. Álvarez-García, V. Mata-Haro, D. Soto-Puebla, M. Pedroza-Montero

Abstract:

Blood gamma irradiation is the only available method to prevent transfusion associated graft versus host disease (TAGVHD). However, when blood is irradiated, determine blood shelf time is crucial. Non irradiated blood have a self-time from 21 to 35 days when is preserved with anticoagulated solution and stored at 4°C. During their storage, red blood cells (RBC) undergo a series of biochemical, biomechanical and molecular changes involving what is known as storage lesion (SL). SL include loss of structural integrity of RBC, decrease of 2,3-diphosphatidylglyceric acid levels, and increase of both ion potassium concentration and hemoglobin (Hb). On the other hand, Atomic force Microscopy (AFM) represents a versatile tool for a nano-scale high resolution topographic analysis in biological systems. In order to evaluate SL in irradiated and nonirradiated blood, RBC topography and morphometric parameters were obtained from an AFM XE-BIO system. Cell viability was followed using flow cytometry. Our results showed that early markers as nanoscale roughness, allow us to evaluate blood quality since other perspective.

Keywords: AFM, Blood γ-irradiation, roughness, Storage lesion.

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1529 Fashion Consumption for Fashion Innovators: A Study of Fashion Consumption Behavior of Innovators and Non-Innovators

Authors: Vaishali P. Joshi, Pallav Joshi

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to examine the differences fashion innovators and non-fashion innovators in their fashion consumption behavior in terms of their pre-purchase behavior, purchase behavior and post purchase behavior. The questionnaire was distributed to a female college student for data collection for achieving the objective of the first part of the study. Question-related to fashion innovativeness and fashion consumption behavior was asked. The sample was comprised of 81 college females ages 18 through 30 who were attending Business Management degree. A series of attitude questions was used to categorize respondents on the Innovativeness Scale. 32 respondents with a score of 21 and above were designated as Fashion innovators and the remainder (49) as Non-fashion innovators. Findings showed that there exist significant differences between innovators and non-innovators in their fashion consumption behavior. Data was analyzed through frequency distribution table. Many differences were found in the behavior of innovators and non-innovators in terms of their pre-purchase, actual purchase, and post-purchase behavior.

Keywords: Consumption behavior, fashion, innovativeness, frequency distribution table.

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1528 Generalized Maximum Entropy Method for Cosmic Source Localization

Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi, Miloud Frikel

Abstract:

The Maximum entropy principle in spectral analysis was used as an estimator of Direction of Arrival (DoA) of electromagnetic or acoustic sources impinging on an array of sensors, indeed the maximum entropy operator is very efficient when the signals of the radiating sources are ergodic and complex zero mean random processes which is the case for cosmic sources. In this paper, we present basic review of the maximum entropy method (MEM) which consists of rank one operator but not a projector, and we elaborate a new operator which is full rank and sum of all possible projectors. Two dimensional Simulation results based on Monte Carlo trials prove the resolution power of the new operator where the MEM presents some erroneous fluctuations.

Keywords: Maximum entropy, Cosmic source, Localization, operator, projector, azimuth, elevation, DoA, circular array.

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1527 Natural Radioactivity Measurements of Basalt Rocks in Sidakan District Northeastern of Kurdistan Region-Iraq

Authors: Ali A. Ahmed, Mohammed I. Hussein

Abstract:

The amounts of radioactivity in the igneous rocks have been investigated; samples were collected from the total of eight basalt rock types in the northeastern of Kurdistan region/Iraq. The activity concentration of 226Ra (238U) series, 228Ac (232Th) series, 40K and 137Cs were measured using Planar HPGe and NaI(Tl) detectors. Along the study area the radium equivalent activities Raeq in Bq/Kg of samples under investigation were found in the range of 22.16 to 77.31 Bq/Kg with an average value of 44.8 Bq/Kg, this value is much below the internationally accepted value of 370 Bq/Kg. To estimate the health effects of this natural radioactive composition, the average values of absorbed gamma dose rate D (55 nGyh-1), Indoor and outdoor annual effective dose rates Eied (0.11 mSvy-1) . and Eoed (0.03 mSvy-1), External hazard index Hex (0.138) and internal hazard index Hin(0.154), and representative level index Iγr (0.386) have been calculated and found to be lower than the worldwide average values.

Keywords: Absorbed dose, activity concentration, igneousrocks, HPGe, NaI(TI), Natural Radioactivity.

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1526 The Principle Probabilities of Space-Distance Resolution for a Monostatic Radar and Realization in Cylindrical Array

Authors: Anatoly D. Pluzhnikov, Elena N. Pribludova, Alexander G. Ryndyk

Abstract:

In conjunction with the problem of the target selection on a clutter background, the analysis of the scanning rate influence on the spatial-temporal signal structure, the generalized multivariate correlation function and the quality of the resolution with the increase pulse repetition frequency is made. The possibility of the object space-distance resolution, which is conditioned by the range-to-angle conversion with an increased scanning rate, is substantiated. The calculations for the real cylindrical array at high scanning rate are presented. The high scanning rate let to get the signal to noise improvement of the order of 10 dB for the space-time signal processing.

Keywords: Antenna pattern, array, signal processing, spatial resolution.

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1525 Analysis on Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Surface Temperature in Kunming City, China

Authors: Jinrui Ren, Li Wu

Abstract:

Anthropogenic activities and changes of underlying surface affect the temporal and spatial distribution of surface temperature in Kunming. Taking Kunming city as the research area, the surface temperature in 2000, 2010 and 2020 as the research object, using ENVI 5.3 and ArcGIS 10.8 as auxiliary tools, and based on the spatial autocorrelation method, this paper devoted to exploring the interactions among the changes of surface temperature, urban heat island effect and land use type, so as to provide theoretical basis and scientific basis for mitigating climate change. The results showed that: (1) The heat island effect was obvious in Kunming City, the high temperature area increased from 604 km2 in 2000 to 1269 km2 in 2020, and the sub-high temperature area reached 1099 km2 in 2020; (2) In terms of space, the spatial distribution of LST was significantly different with the change of underlying surface. The high temperature zone extended in three directions: south, north and east. The overall spatial distribution pattern of LST was high in the east and low in the west. (3) The inter-annual fluctuation of land surface temperature (LST) was large, and the growth rate was faster, from 2000 to 2010. The lowest temperature in 2000 was 13.45 ℃, which raised to 19.71 ℃ in 2010, and the temperature difference in 10 years was 6.26 ℃. (4) The land use/land cover type has a strong effect on the change of LST: the man-made land made a great contribution to the increase of LST, followed by grassland and farmland, while forest and water have a significant cooling effect on LST. To sum up, the variation of surface temperature in Kunming is the result of the interactions of human activities and climate change.

Keywords: Surface temperature, urban heat island effect, land use cover type, spatiotemporal variation.

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1524 Analysis of Cyclic Elastic-Plastic Loading of Shaft Based On Kinematic Hardening Model

Authors: Isa Ahmadi, Ramin Khamedi

Abstract:

In this paper, the elasto-plastic and cyclic torsion of a shaft is studied using a finite element method. The Prager kinematic hardening theory of plasticity with the Ramberg and Osgood stress-strain equation is used to evaluate the cyclic loading behavior of the shaft under the torsional loading. The material of shaft is assumed to follow the non-linear strain hardening property based on the Prager model. The finite element method with C1 continuity is developed and used for solution of the governing equations of the problem. The successive substitution iterative method is used to calculate the distribution of stresses and plastic strains in the shaft due to cyclic loads. The shear stress, effective stress, residual stress and elastic and plastic shear strain distribution are presented in the numerical results.

Keywords: Cyclic Loading, Finite Element Analysis, Prager Kinematic Hardening Model, Torsion of shaft.

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1523 Weigh-in-Motion Data Analysis Software for Developing Traffic Data for Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design

Authors: M. A. Hasan, M. R. Islam, R. A. Tarefder

Abstract:

Currently, there are few user friendly Weigh-in- Motion (WIM) data analysis softwares available which can produce traffic input data for the recently developed AASHTOWare pavement Mechanistic-Empirical (ME) design software. However, these softwares have only rudimentary Quality Control (QC) processes. Therefore, they cannot properly deal with erroneous WIM data. As the pavement performance is highly sensible to the quality of WIM data, it is highly recommended to use more refined QC process on raw WIM data to get a good result. This study develops a userfriendly software, which can produce traffic input for the ME design software. This software takes the raw data (Class and Weight data) collected from the WIM station and processes it with a sophisticated QC procedure. Traffic data such as traffic volume, traffic distribution, axle load spectra, etc. can be obtained from this software; which can directly be used in the ME design software.

Keywords: Weigh-in-motion, software, axle load spectra, traffic distribution, AASHTOWare.

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1522 Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Surface Water Treatment Pilot Plant

Authors: C.-M. Militaru, A. Pǎcalǎ, I. Vlaicu, K. Bodor, G.-A. Dumitrel, T. Todinca

Abstract:

A mathematical model for the hydrodynamics of a surface water treatment pilot plant was developed and validated by the determination of the residence time distribution (RTD) for the main equipments of the unit. The well known models of ideal/real mixing, ideal displacement (plug flow) and (one-dimensional axial) dispersion model were combined in order to identify the structure that gives the best fitting of the experimental data for each equipment of the pilot plant. RTD experimental results have shown that pilot plant hydrodynamics can be quite well approximated by a combination of simple mathematical models, structure which is suitable for engineering applications. Validated hydrodynamic models will be further used in the evaluation and selection of the most suitable coagulation-flocculation reagents, optimum operating conditions (injection point, reaction times, etc.), in order to improve the quality of the drinking water.

Keywords: drinking water, hydrodynamic modeling, pilot plant, residence time distribution, surface water.

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1521 Segmentation of Piecewise Polynomial Regression Model by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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