Search results for: fuzzy linear regression
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3146

Search results for: fuzzy linear regression

2306 Simulating Action Potential as a Linear Combination of Gating Dynamics

Authors: S. H. Sabzpoushan

Abstract:

In this research we show that the dynamics of an action potential in a cell can be modeled with a linear combination of the dynamics of the gating state variables. It is shown that the modeling error is negligible. Our findings can be used for simplifying cell models and reduction of computational burden i.e. it is useful for simulating action potential propagation in large scale computations like tissue modeling. We have verified our finding with the use of several cell models.

Keywords: Linear model, Action potential, gating dynamics.

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2305 A Study on Inference from Distance Variables in Hedonic Regression

Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

Abstract:

In urban area, several landmarks may affect housing price and rents, and hedonic analysis should employ distance variables corresponding to each landmarks. Unfortunately, the effects of distances to landmarks on housing prices are generally not consistent with the true price. These distance variables may cause magnitude error in regression, pointing a problem of spatial multicollinearity. In this paper, we provided some approaches for getting the samples with less bias and method on locating the specific sampling area to avoid the multicollinerity problem in two specific landmarks case.

Keywords: Landmarks, hedonic regression, distance variables, collinearity, multicollinerity.

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2304 Linear Pocket Profile based Threshold Voltage Model for sub-100 nm n-MOSFET

Authors: Muhibul Haque Bhuyan, Quazi Deen Mohd Khosru

Abstract:

This paper presents a threshold voltage model of pocket implanted sub-100 nm n-MOSFETs incorporating the drain and substrate bias effects using two linear pocket profiles. Two linear equations are used to simulate the pocket profiles along the channel at the surface from the source and drain edges towards the center of the n-MOSFET. Then the effective doping concentration is derived and is used in the threshold voltage equation that is obtained by solving the Poisson-s equation in the depletion region at the surface. Simulated threshold voltages for various gate lengths fit well with the experimental data already published in the literature. The simulated result is compared with the two other pocket profiles used to derive the threshold voltage models of n-MOSFETs. The comparison shows that the linear model has a simple compact form that can be utilized to study and characterize the pocket implanted advanced ULSI devices.

Keywords: Linear pocket profile, pocket implantation, nMOSFET, threshold voltage, short channel effect (SCE), reverse short channeleffect (RSCE).

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2303 Evaluating the Response of Rainfed-Chickpea to Population Density in Iran, Using Simulation

Authors: Manoochehr Gholipoor

Abstract:

The response of growth and yield of rainfed-chickpea to population density should be evaluated based on long-term experiments to include the climate variability. This is achievable just by simulation. In this simulation study, this evaluation was done by running the CYRUS model for long-term daily weather data of five locations in Iran. The tested population densities were 7 to 59 (with interval of 2) stands per square meter. Various functions, including quadratic, segmented, beta, broken linear, and dent-like functions, were tested. Considering root mean square of deviations and linear regression statistics [intercept (a), slope (b), and correlation coefficient (r)] for predicted versus observed variables, the quadratic and broken linear functions appeared to be appropriate for describing the changes in biomass and grain yield, and in harvest index, respectively. Results indicated that in all locations, grain yield tends to show increasing trend with crowding the population, but subsequently decreases. This was also true for biomass in five locations. The harvest index appeared to have plateau state across low population densities, but decreasing trend with more increasing density. The turning point (optimum population density) for grain yield was 30.68 stands per square meter in Isfahan, 30.54 in Shiraz, 31.47 in Kermanshah, 34.85 in Tabriz, and 32.00 in Mashhad. The optimum population density for biomass ranged from 24.6 (in Tabriz) to 35.3 stands per square meter (Mashhad). For harvest index it varied between 35.87 and 40.12 stands per square meter.

Keywords: Rainfed-chickpea, biomass, harvest index, grain yield, simulation.

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2302 MCOKE: Multi-Cluster Overlapping K-Means Extension Algorithm

Authors: Said Baadel, Fadi Thabtah, Joan Lu

Abstract:

Clustering involves the partitioning of n objects into k clusters. Many clustering algorithms use hard-partitioning techniques where each object is assigned to one cluster. In this paper we propose an overlapping algorithm MCOKE which allows objects to belong to one or more clusters. The algorithm is different from fuzzy clustering techniques because objects that overlap are assigned a membership value of 1 (one) as opposed to a fuzzy membership degree. The algorithm is also different from other overlapping algorithms that require a similarity threshold be defined a priori which can be difficult to determine by novice users.

Keywords: Data mining, k-means, MCOKE, overlapping.

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2301 Intelligent Agent System Simulation Using Fear Emotion

Authors: Latifeh PourMohammadBagher

Abstract:

In this paper I have developed a system for evaluating the degree of fear emotion that the intelligent agent-based system may feel when it encounters to a persecuting event. In this paper I want to describe behaviors of emotional agents using human behavior in terms of the way their emotional states evolve over time. I have implemented a fuzzy inference system using Java environment. As the inputs of this system, I have considered three parameters related on human fear emotion. The system outputs can be used in agent decision making process or choosing a person for team working systems by combination the intensity of fear to other emotion intensities.

Keywords: Emotion simulation, Fear, Fuzzy intelligent agent

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2300 An Internet of Things-Based Weight Monitoring System for Honey

Authors: Zheng-Yan Ruan, Chien-Hao Wang, Hong-Jen Lin, Chien-Peng Huang, Ying-Hao Chen, En-Cheng Yang, Chwan-Lu Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang

Abstract:

Bees play a vital role in pollination. This paper focuses on the weighing process of honey. Honey is usually stored at the comb in a hive. Bee farmers brush bees away from the comb and then collect honey, and the collected honey is weighed afterward. However, such a process brings strong negative influences on bees and even leads to the death of bees. This paper therefore presents an Internet of Things-based weight monitoring system which uses weight sensors to measure the weight of honey and simplifies the whole weighing procedure. To verify the system, the weight measured by the system is compared to the weight of standard weights used for calibration by employing a linear regression model. The R2 of the regression model is 0.9788, which suggests that the weighing system is highly reliable and is able to be applied to obtain actual weight of honey. In the future, the weight data of honey can be used to find the relationship between honey production and different ecological parameters, such as bees’ foraging behavior and weather conditions. It is expected that the findings can serve as critical information for honey production improvement.

Keywords: Internet of Things, weight, honey, bee.

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2299 Optimal Control of a Linear Distributed Parameter System via Shifted Legendre Polynomials

Authors: Sanjeeb Kumar Kar

Abstract:

The optimal control problem of a linear distributed parameter system is studied via shifted Legendre polynomials (SLPs) in this paper. The partial differential equation, representing the linear distributed parameter system, is decomposed into an n - set of ordinary differential equations, the optimal control problem is transformed into a two-point boundary value problem, and the twopoint boundary value problem is reduced to an initial value problem by using SLPs. A recursive algorithm for evaluating optimal control input and output trajectory is developed. The proposed algorithm is computationally simple. An illustrative example is given to show the simplicity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Optimal control, linear systems, distributed parametersystems, Legendre polynomials.

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2298 Realization of Design Features for Linear Flow Splitting in NX 6

Authors: Anselm L. Schüle, Thomas Rollmann, Reiner Anderl

Abstract:

Within the collaborative research center 666 a new product development approach and the innovative manufacturing method of linear flow splitting are being developed. So far the design process is supported by 3D-CAD models utilizing User Defined Features in standard CAD-Systems. This paper now presents new functions for generating 3D-models of integral sheet metal products with bifurcations using Siemens PLM NX 6. The emphasis is placed on design and semi-automated insertion of User Defined Features. Therefore User Defined Features for both, linear flow splitting and its derivative linear bend splitting, were developed. In order to facilitate the modeling process, an application was developed that guides through the insertion process. Its usability and dialog layout adapt known standard features. The work presented here has significant implications on the quality, accurateness and efficiency of the product generation process of sheet metal products with higher order bifurcations.

Keywords: Linear Flow Splitting, CRC 666, User Defined Features.

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2297 Vibration Control of Two Adjacent Structures Using a Non-Linear Damping System

Authors: Soltani Amir, Wang Xuan

Abstract:

The advantage of using non-linear passive damping  system in vibration control of two adjacent structures is investigated  under their base excitation. The base excitation is El Centro  earthquake record acceleration. The damping system is considered as  an optimum and effective non-linear viscous damper that is  connected between two adjacent structures. A MATLAB program is  developed to produce the stiffness and damping matrices and to  determine a time history analysis of the dynamic motion of the  system. One structure is assumed to be flexible while the other has a  rule as laterally supporting structure with rigid frames. The response  of the structure has been calculated and the non-linear damping  coefficient is determined using optimum LQR algorithm in an  optimum vibration control system. The non-linear parameter of  damping system is estimated and it has shown a significant advantage  of application of this system device for vibration control of two  adjacent tall building.

Keywords: Structural Control, Active and passive damping, Vibration control, Seismic isolation.

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2296 Hybrid Intelligent Intrusion Detection System

Authors: Norbik Bashah, Idris Bharanidharan Shanmugam, Abdul Manan Ahmed

Abstract:

Intrusion Detection Systems are increasingly a key part of systems defense. Various approaches to Intrusion Detection are currently being used, but they are relatively ineffective. Artificial Intelligence plays a driving role in security services. This paper proposes a dynamic model Intelligent Intrusion Detection System, based on specific AI approach for intrusion detection. The techniques that are being investigated includes neural networks and fuzzy logic with network profiling, that uses simple data mining techniques to process the network data. The proposed system is a hybrid system that combines anomaly, misuse and host based detection. Simple Fuzzy rules allow us to construct if-then rules that reflect common ways of describing security attacks. For host based intrusion detection we use neural-networks along with self organizing maps. Suspicious intrusions can be traced back to its original source path and any traffic from that particular source will be redirected back to them in future. Both network traffic and system audit data are used as inputs for both.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection, Network Security, Data mining, Fuzzy Logic.

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2295 Feedrate Optimization for Ball-end milling of Sculptured Surfaces using Fuzzy Logic Controller

Authors: Njiri J. G., Ikua B. W., Nyakoe G. N.

Abstract:

Optimization of cutting parameters important in precision machining in regards to efficiency and surface integrity of the machined part. Usually productivity and precision in machining is limited by the forces emanating from the cutting process. Due to the inherent varying nature of the workpiece in terms of geometry and material composition, the peak cutting forces vary from point to point during machining process. In order to increase productivity without compromising on machining accuracy, it is important to control these cutting forces. In this paper a fuzzy logic control algorithm is developed that can be applied in the control of peak cutting forces in milling of spherical surfaces using ball end mills. The controller can adaptively vary the feedrate to maintain allowable cutting force on the tool. This control algorithm is implemented in a computer numerical control (CNC) machine. It has been demonstrated that the controller can provide stable machining and improve the performance of the CNC milling process by varying feedrate.

Keywords: Ball-end mill, feedrate, fuzzy logic controller, machining optimization, spherical surface.

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2294 Soft-Sensor for Estimation of Gasoline Octane Number in Platforming Processes with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)

Authors: Hamed.Vezvaei, Sepideh.Ordibeheshti, Mehdi.Ardjmand

Abstract:

Gasoline Octane Number is the standard measure of the anti-knock properties of a motor in platforming processes, that is one of the important unit operations for oil refineries and can be determined with online measurement or use CFR (Cooperative Fuel Research) engines. Online measurements of the Octane number can be done using direct octane number analyzers, that it is too expensive, so we have to find feasible analyzer, like ANFIS estimators. ANFIS is the systems that neural network incorporated in fuzzy systems, using data automatically by learning algorithms of NNs. ANFIS constructs an input-output mapping based both on human knowledge and on generated input-output data pairs. In this research, 31 industrial data sets are used (21 data for training and the rest of the data used for generalization). Results show that, according to this simulation, hybrid method training algorithm in ANFIS has good agreements between industrial data and simulated results.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems, GasolineOctane Number, Soft-sensor, Catalytic Naphtha Reforming

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2293 Matrix Converter Fed Brushless DC Motor Using Field Programmable Gate Array

Authors: P. Subha Karuvelam, M. Rajaram

Abstract:

Brushless DC motors (BLDC) are widely used in industrial areas. The BLDC motors are driven either by indirect ACAC converters or by direct AC-AC converters. Direct AC-AC converters i.e. matrix converters are used in this paper to drive the three phase BLDC motor and it eliminates the bulky DC link energy storage element. A matrix converter converts the AC power supply to an AC voltage of variable amplitude and variable frequency. A control technique is designed to generate the switching pulses for the three phase matrix converter. For the control of speed of the BLDC motor a separate PI controller and Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) are designed and a hysteresis current controller is also designed for the control of motor torque. The control schemes are designed and tested separately. The simulation results of both the schemes are compared and contrasted in this paper. The results show that the fuzzy logic control scheme outperforms the PI control scheme in terms of dynamic performance of the BLDC motor. Simulation results are validated with the experimental results.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, matrix converter, permanent magnet brushless DC motor, PI controller.

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2292 Linear Elasticity Problems Solved by Using the Fictitious Domain Method and Total - FETI Domain Decomposition

Authors: Lukas Mocek, Alexandros Markopoulos

Abstract:

The main goal of this paper is to show a possibility, how to solve numerically elliptic boundary value problems arising in 2D linear elasticity by using the fictitious domain method (FDM) and the Total-FETI domain decomposition method. We briefly mention the theoretical background of these methods and demonstrate their performance on a benchmark.

Keywords: Linear elasticity, fictitious domain method, Total-FETI, domain decomposition, saddle-point system.

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2291 An Optimized Method for Calculating the Linear and Nonlinear Response of SDOF System Subjected to an Arbitrary Base Excitation

Authors: Hossein Kabir, Mojtaba Sadeghi

Abstract:

Finding the linear and nonlinear responses of a typical single-degree-of-freedom system (SDOF) is always being regarded as a time-consuming process. This study attempts to provide modifications in the renowned Newmark method in order to make it more time efficient than it used to be and make it more accurate by modifying the system in its own non-linear state. The efficacy of the presented method is demonstrated by assigning three base excitations such as Tabas 1978, El Centro 1940, and MEXICO CITY/SCT 1985 earthquakes to a SDOF system, that is, SDOF, to compute the strength reduction factor, yield pseudo acceleration, and ductility factor.

Keywords: Single-degree-of-freedom system, linear acceleration method, nonlinear excited system, equivalent displacement method.

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2290 Using Combination of Optimized Recurrent Neural Network with Design of Experiments and Regression for Control Chart Forecasting

Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

Abstract:

recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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2289 Estimate of Maximum Expected Intensity of One-Half-Wave Lines Dancing

Authors: A. Bekbaev, M. Dzhamanbaev, R. Abitaeva, A. Karbozova, G. Nabyeva

Abstract:

In this paper, the regression dependence of dancing intensity from wind speed and length of span was established due to the statistic data obtained from multi-year observations on line wires dancing accumulated by power systems of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. The lower and upper limitations of the equations parameters were estimated, as well as the adequacy of the regression model. The constructed model will be used in research of dancing phenomena for the development of methods and means of protection against dancing and for zoning plan of the territories of line wire dancing.

Keywords: Power lines, line wire dancing, dancing intensity, regression equation, dancing area intensity.

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2288 Estimating the Life-Distribution Parameters of Weibull-Life PV Systems Utilizing Non-Parametric Analysis

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

In this paper, a model is proposed to determine the life distribution parameters of the useful life region for the PV system utilizing a combination of non-parametric and linear regression analysis for the failure data of these systems. Results showed that this method is dependable for analyzing failure time data for such reliable systems when the data is scarce.

Keywords: Masking, Bathtub model, reliability, non-parametric analysis, useful life.

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2287 Optimized Calculation of Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC)

Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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2286 Forecasting of Grape Juice Flavor by Using Support Vector Regression

Authors: Ren-Jieh Kuo, Chun-Shou Huang

Abstract:

The research of juice flavor forecasting has become more important in China. Due to the fast economic growth in China, many different kinds of juices have been introduced to the market. If a beverage company can understand their customers’ preference well, the juice can be served more attractive. Thus, this study intends to introducing the basic theory and computing process of grapes juice flavor forecasting based on support vector regression (SVR). Applying SVR, BPN, and LR to forecast the flavor of grapes juice in real data shows that SVR is more suitable and effective at predicting performance.

Keywords: Flavor forecasting, artificial neural networks, support vector regression, grape juice flavor.

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2285 TOPSIS Method for Supplier Selection Problem

Authors: Omid Jadidi, Fatemeh Firouzi, Enzo Bagliery

Abstract:

Supplier selection, in real situation, is affected by several qualitative and quantitative factors and is one of the most important activities of purchasing department. Since at the time of evaluating suppliers against the criteria or factors, decision makers (DMS) do not have precise, exact and complete information, supplier selection becomes more difficult. In this case, Grey theory helps us to deal with this problem of uncertainty. Here, we apply Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method to evaluate and select the best supplier by using interval fuzzy numbers. Through this article, we compare TOPSIS with some other approaches and afterward demonstrate that the concept of TOPSIS is very important for ranking and selecting right supplier.

Keywords: TOPSIS, fuzzy number, MADM, Supplier selection

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2284 Defuzzification of Periodic Membership Function on Circular Coordinates

Authors: Takashi Mitsuishi, Koji Saigusa

Abstract:

This paper presents circular polar coordinates transformation of periodic fuzzy membership function. The purpose is identification of domain of periodic membership functions in consequent part of IF-THEN rules. Proposed methods in this paper remove complicatedness concerning domain of periodic membership function from defuzzification in fuzzy approximate reasoning. Defuzzification on circular polar coordinates is also proposed.

Keywords: Defuzzification, periodic membership function, polar coordinates transformation.

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2283 Predictive Clustering Hybrid Regression(pCHR) Approach and Its Application to Sucrose-Based Biohydrogen Production

Authors: Nikhil, Ari Visa, Chin-Chao Chen, Chiu-Yue Lin, Jaakko A. Puhakka, Olli Yli-Harja

Abstract:

A predictive clustering hybrid regression (pCHR) approach was developed and evaluated using dataset from H2- producing sucrose-based bioreactor operated for 15 months. The aim was to model and predict the H2-production rate using information available about envirome and metabolome of the bioprocess. Selforganizing maps (SOM) and Sammon map were used to visualize the dataset and to identify main metabolic patterns and clusters in bioprocess data. Three metabolic clusters: acetate coupled with other metabolites, butyrate only, and transition phases were detected. The developed pCHR model combines principles of k-means clustering, kNN classification and regression techniques. The model performed well in modeling and predicting the H2-production rate with mean square error values of 0.0014 and 0.0032, respectively.

Keywords: Biohydrogen, bioprocess modeling, clusteringhybrid regression.

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2282 Cooperative Multi Agent Soccer Robot Team

Authors: Vahid Rostami, Saeed Ebrahimijam, P.khajehpoor, P.Mirzaei, Mahdi Yousefiazar

Abstract:

This paper introduces our first efforts of developing a new team for RoboCup Middle Size Competition. In our robots we have applied omni directional based mobile system with omnidirectional vision system and fuzzy control algorithm to navigate robots. The control architecture of MRL middle-size robots is a three layered architecture, Planning, Sequencing, and Executing. It also uses Blackboard system to achieve coordination among agents. Moreover, the architecture should have minimum dependency on low level structure and have a uniform protocol to interact with real robot.

Keywords: Robocup, Soccer robots, Fuzzy controller, Multi agent.

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2281 Learning FCM by Tabu Search

Authors: Somayeh Alizadeh, Mehdi Ghazanfari, Mostafa Jafari, Salman Hooshmand

Abstract:

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) is a causal graph, which shows the relations between essential components in complex systems. Experts who are familiar with the system components and their relations can generate a related FCM. There is a big gap when human experts cannot produce FCM or even there is no expert to produce the related FCM. Therefore, a new mechanism must be used to bridge this gap. In this paper, a novel learning method is proposed to construct causal graph based on historical data and by using metaheuristic such Tabu Search (TS). The efficiency of the proposed method is shown via comparison of its results of some numerical examples with those of some other methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), Learning, Meta heuristic, Genetic Algorithm, Tabu search.

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2280 A Mixed Expert Evaluation System and Dynamic Interval-Valued Hesitant Fuzzy Selection Approach

Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

Abstract:

In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting.

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2279 Development of Regression Equation for Surface Finish and Analysis of Surface Integrity in EDM

Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman

Abstract:

Electrical discharge machining (EDM) is a relatively modern machining process having distinct advantages over other machining processes and can machine Ti-alloys effectively. The present study emphasizes the features of the development of regression equation based on response surface methodology (RSM) for correlating the interactive and higher-order influences of machining parameters on surface finish of Titanium alloy Ti-6Al-4V. The process parameters selected in this study are discharge current, pulse on time, pulse off time and servo voltage. Machining has been accomplished using negative polarity of Graphite electrode. Analysis of variance is employed to ascertain the adequacy of the developed regression model. Experiments based on central composite of response surface method are carried out. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis was performed to investigate the surface topography of the EDMed job. The results evidence that the proposed regression equation can predict the surface roughness effectively. The lower ampere and short pulse on time yield better surface finish.

Keywords: Graphite electrode, regression model, response surface methodology, surface roughness.

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2278 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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2277 Study of Variation of Winds Behavior on Micro Urban Environment with Use of Fuzzy Logic for Wind Power Generation: Case Study in the Cities of Arraial do Cabo and São Pedro da Aldeia, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Authors: Roberto Rosenhaim, Marcos Antonio Crus Moreira, Robson da Cunha, Gerson Gomes Cunha

Abstract:

This work provides details on the wind speed behavior within cities of Arraial do Cabo and São Pedro da Aldeia located in the Lakes Region of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This region has one of the best potentials for wind power generation. In interurban layer, wind conditions are very complex and depend on physical geography, size and orientation of buildings and constructions around, population density, and land use. In the same context, the fundamental surface parameter that governs the production of flow turbulence in urban canyons is the surface roughness. Such factors can influence the potential for power generation from the wind within the cities. Moreover, the use of wind on a small scale is not fully utilized due to complexity of wind flow measurement inside the cities. It is difficult to accurately predict this type of resource. This study demonstrates how fuzzy logic can facilitate the assessment of the complexity of the wind potential inside the cities. It presents a decision support tool and its ability to deal with inaccurate information using linguistic variables created by the heuristic method. It relies on the already published studies about the variables that influence the wind speed in the urban environment. These variables were turned into the verbal expressions that are used in computer system, which facilitated the establishment of rules for fuzzy inference and integration with an application for smartphones used in the research. In the first part of the study, challenges of the sustainable development which are described are followed by incentive policies to the use of renewable energy in Brazil. The next chapter follows the study area characteristics and the concepts of fuzzy logic. Data were collected in field experiment by using qualitative and quantitative methods for assessment. As a result, a map of the various points is presented within the cities studied with its wind viability evaluated by a system of decision support using the method multivariate classification based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Behavior of winds, wind power, fuzzy logic, sustainable development.

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