Search results for: Type I error
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3271

Search results for: Type I error

2461 A Real Time Expert System for Decision Support in Nuclear Power Plants

Authors: Andressa dos Santos Nicolau, João P. da S.C Algusto, Claudio Márcio do N. A. Pereira, Roberto Schirru

Abstract:

In case of abnormal situations, the nuclear power plant (NPP) operators must follow written procedures to check the condition of the plant and to classify the type of emergency. In this paper, we proposed a Real Time Expert System in order to improve operator’s performance in case of transient or accident with reactor shutdown. The expert system’s knowledge is based on the sequence of events (SoE) of known accident and two emergency procedures of the Brazilian Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) NPP and uses two kinds of knowledge representation: rule and logic trees. The results show that the system was able to classify the response of the automatic protection systems, as well as to evaluate the conditions of the plant, diagnosing the type of occurrence, recovery procedure to be followed, indicating the shutdown root cause, and classifying the emergency level.

Keywords: Emergence procedure, expert system, operator support, PWR nuclear power plant.

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2460 Knowledge Representation Based On Interval Type-2 CFCM Clustering

Authors: Myung-Won Lee, Keun-Chang Kwak

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with knowledge representation and extraction of fuzzy if-then rules using Interval Type-2 Context-based Fuzzy C-Means clustering (IT2-CFCM) with the aid of fuzzy granulation. This proposed clustering algorithm is based on information granulation in the form of IT2 based Fuzzy C-Means (IT2-FCM) clustering and estimates the cluster centers by preserving the homogeneity between the clustered patterns from the IT2 contexts produced in the output space. Furthermore, we can obtain the automatic knowledge representation in the design of Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN), Linguistic Model (LM), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Networks (ANFN) from the numerical input-output data pairs. We shall focus on a design of ANFN in this paper. The experimental results on an estimation problem of energy performance reveal that the proposed method showed a good knowledge representation and performance in comparison with the previous works.

Keywords: IT2-FCM, IT2-CFCM, context-based fuzzy clustering, adaptive neuro-fuzzy network, knowledge representation.

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2459 Two-dimensional Differential Transform Method for Solving Linear and Non-linear Goursat Problem

Authors: H. Taghvafard, G. H. Erjaee

Abstract:

A method for solving linear and non-linear Goursat problem is given by using the two-dimensional differential transform method. The approximate solution of this problem is calculated in the form of a series with easily computable terms and also the exact solutions can be achieved by the known forms of the series solutions. The method can easily be applied to many linear and non-linear problems and is capable of reducing the size of computational work. Several examples are given to demonstrate the reliability and the performance of the presented method.

Keywords: Quadrature, Spline interpolation, Trapezoidal rule, Numericalintegration, Error analysis.

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2458 Human Factors Issues and Measures in Advanced NPPs

Authors: Jun Su Ha

Abstract:

Various advanced technologies will be adopted in Advanced Control Rooms (ACRs) of advanced Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), which is thought to increase operators’ performance. However, potential human factors issues coupled with digital technologies might be troublesome. Human factors issues in ACRs are identified and strategies (or countermeasures) for evaluating and analyzing each of issues are addressed in this study.

 

Keywords: Advanced control room, human factor issues, human performance, human error, nuclear power plant.

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2457 Power Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation

Authors: S. H. Oudjana, A. Hellal, I. Hadj Mahammed

Abstract:

Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an important task in renewable energy power system planning and operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks (NN) to study the design of photovoltaic power generation forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city (south of Algeria) using a data acquisition system. Simulations were run and the results are discussed showing that neural networks Technique is capable to decrease the photovoltaic power generation forecasting error.

Keywords: Photovoltaic Power Forecasting, Regression, Neural Networks.

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2456 Exploring Additional Intention Predictors within Dietary Behavior among Type 2 Diabetes

Authors: D. O. Omondi, M. K. Walingo, G. M. Mbagaya

Abstract:

Objective: This study explored the possibility of integrating Health Belief Concepts as additional predictors of intention to adopt a recommended diet-category within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Methods: The study adopted a Sequential Exploratory Mixed Methods approach. Qualitative data were generated on attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and perceptions on predetermined diet-categories including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action. Synthesis of qualitative data was done using constant comparative approach during phase 1. A survey tool developed from qualitative results was used to collect information on the same concepts across 237 legible Type 2 diabetics. Data analysis included use of Structural Equation Modeling in Analysis of Moment Structures to explore the possibility of including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action as additional intention predictors in a single nested model. Results: Two models-one nested based on the traditional TPB model {χ2=223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)} and the newly proposed Planned Behavior Health Belief Model (PBHB) {χ2 = 743.47, df = 301, p = .019; TLI = .90; CFI=.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .079(.031, .14)} passed the goodness of fit tests based on common fit indicators used. Conclusion: The newly developed PBHB Model ranked higher than the traditional TPB model with reference made to chi-square ratios (PBHB: χ2/df = 2.47; p=0.19 against TPB: χ2/df = 2.9, p=0.02). The integrated model can be used to motivate Type 2 diabetics towards healthy eating.

Keywords: Theory, intention, predictors, mixed methods design.

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2455 Integral Tracking Control for a Piezoelectric Actuator System

Authors: J. H. Park, S. C. Jeong, J. H. Koo, H. Y. Jung, S. M. Lee

Abstract:

We propose an integral tracking control method for a piezoelectric actuator system. The proposed method achieves the output tracking without requiring any hysteresis observer or schemes to compensate the hysteresis effect. With the proposed control law, the system is converted into the standard singularly perturbed model. Using Tikhonov-s theorem, we guarantee that the tracking error can be reduced to arbitrarily small bound. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Keywords: Piezoelectric actuator, tracking control, hysteresis effect.

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2454 Agent-based Simulation for Blood Glucose Control in Diabetic Patients

Authors: Sh. Yasini, M. B. Naghibi-Sistani, A. Karimpour

Abstract:

This paper employs a new approach to regulate the blood glucose level of type I diabetic patient under an intensive insulin treatment. The closed-loop control scheme incorporates expert knowledge about treatment by using reinforcement learning theory to maintain the normoglycemic average of 80 mg/dl and the normal condition for free plasma insulin concentration in severe initial state. The insulin delivery rate is obtained off-line by using Qlearning algorithm, without requiring an explicit model of the environment dynamics. The implementation of the insulin delivery rate, therefore, requires simple function evaluation and minimal online computations. Controller performance is assessed in terms of its ability to reject the effect of meal disturbance and to overcome the variability in the glucose-insulin dynamics from patient to patient. Computer simulations are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed technique and to show its superiority in controlling hyperglycemia over other existing algorithms

Keywords: Insulin Delivery rate, Q-learning algorithm, Reinforcement learning, Type I diabetes.

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2453 Analysis and Classification of Hiv-1 Sub- Type Viruses by AR Model through Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: O. Yavuz, L. Ozyilmaz

Abstract:

HIV-1 genome is highly heterogeneous. Due to this variation, features of HIV-I genome is in a wide range. For this reason, the ability to infection of the virus changes depending on different chemokine receptors. From this point of view, R5 HIV viruses use CCR5 coreceptor while X4 viruses use CXCR5 and R5X4 viruses can utilize both coreceptors. Recently, in Bioinformatics, R5X4 viruses have been studied to classify by using the experiments on HIV-1 genome. In this study, R5X4 type of HIV viruses were classified using Auto Regressive (AR) model through Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The statistical data of R5X4, R5 and X4 viruses was analyzed by using signal processing methods and ANNs. Accessible residues of these virus sequences were obtained and modeled by AR model since the dimension of residues is large and different from each other. Finally the pre-processed data was used to evolve various ANN structures for determining R5X4 viruses. Furthermore ROC analysis was applied to ANNs to show their real performances. The results indicate that R5X4 viruses successfully classified with high sensitivity and specificity values training and testing ROC analysis for RBF, which gives the best performance among ANN structures.

Keywords: Auto-Regressive Model, HIV, Neural Networks, ROC Analysis.

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2452 Neutronic Study of Two Reactor Cores Cooled with Light and Heavy Water Using Computation Method

Authors: Z. Gholamzadeh, A. Zali, S. A. H. Feghhi, C. Tenreiro, Y. Kadi, M. Rezazadeh, M. Aref

Abstract:

Most HWRs currently use natural uranium fuel. Using enriched uranium fuel results in a significant improvement in fuel cycle costs and uranium utilization. On the other hand, reactivity changes of HWRs over the full range of operating conditions from cold shutdown to full power are small. This reduces the required reactivity worth of control devices and minimizes local flux distribution perturbations, minimizing potential problems due to transient local overheating of fuel. Analyzing heavy water effectiveness on neutronic parameters such as enrichment requirements, peaking factor and reactivity is important and should pay attention as primary concepts of a HWR core designing. Two nuclear nuclear reactors of CANDU-type and hexagonal-type reactor cores of 33 fuel assemblies and 19 assemblies in 1.04 P/D have been respectively simulated using MCNP-4C code. Using heavy water and light water as moderator have been compared for achieving less reactivity insertion and enrichment requirements. Two fuel matrixes of (232Th/235U)O2 and (238/235U)O2 have been compared to achieve more economical and safe design. Heavy water not only decreased enrichment needs, but it concluded in negative reactivity insertions during moderator density variations. Thorium oxide fuel assemblies of 2.3% enrichment loaded into the core of heavy water moderator resulted in 0.751 fission to absorption ratio and peaking factor of 1.7 using. Heavy water not only provides negative reactivity insertion during temperature raises which changes moderator density but concluded in 2 to 10 kg reduction of enrichment requirements, depend on geometry type.

Keywords: MCNP-4C, Reactor core, Multiplication factor, Reactivity, Peaking factor.

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2451 H∞ State Estimation of Neural Networks with Discrete and Distributed Delays

Authors: Biao Qin, Jin Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, together with some improved Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and effective mathematical techniques, several sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the error system is globally asymptotically stable with H∞ performance, in which both the time-delay and its time variation can be fully considered. In order to get less conservative results of the state estimation condition, zero equalities and reciprocally convex approach are employed. The estimator gain matrix can be obtained in terms of the solution to linear matrix inequalities. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: H∞ performance, Neural networks, State estimation.

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2450 Thermodynamic Analysis of Activated Carbon- CO2 based Adsorption Cooling Cycles

Authors: Skander Jribi, Anutosh Chakraborty, Ibrahim I. El-Sharkawy, Bidyut Baran Saha, Shigeru Koyama

Abstract:

Heat powered solid sorption is a feasible alternative to electrical vapor compression refrigeration systems. In this paper, activated carbon (powder type Maxsorb and fiber type ACF-A10)- CO2 based adsorption cooling cycles are studied using the pressuretemperature- concentration (P-T-W) diagram. The specific cooling effect (SCE) and the coefficient of performance (COP) of these two cooling systems are simulated for the driving heat source temperatures ranging from 30 ºC to 90 ºC in terms of different cooling load temperatures with a cooling source temperature of 25 ºC. It is found from the present analysis that Maxsorb-CO2 couple shows higher cooling capacity and COP. The maximum COPs of Maxsorb-CO2 and ACF(A10)-CO2 based cooling systems are found to be 0.15 and 0.083, respectively. The main innovative feature of this cooling cycle is the ability to utilize low temperature waste heat or solar energy using CO2 as the refrigerant, which is one of the best alternative for applications where flammability and toxicity are not allowed.

Keywords: Activated carbon, Adsorption cooling system, Carbon dioxide, Performance evaluation.

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2449 Design of Electromagnetic Drive Module for Micro-gyroscope

Authors: Nan-Chyuan Tsai, Jiun-Sheng Liou, Chih-Che Lin, Tuan Li

Abstract:

For micro-gyroscopes, the angular rate detection components have to oscillate forwards and backwards alternatively. An innovative design of micro-electromagnetic drive module is proposed to make a Π-type disc reciprocally and efficiently rotate within a certain of angular interval. Twelve Electromagnetic poles enclosing the thin disc are designed to provide the magnetic drive power. Isotropic etching technique is employed to fabricate the high-aspect-ratio trench, so that the contact angle of wire against trench can be increased and the potential defect of cavities and pores within the wire can be prevented. On the other hand, a Π-type thin disc is designed to conduct the pitch motion as an angular excitation, in addition to spinning, is exerted on the gyroscope. The efficacy of the micro-magnetic drive module is verified by the commercial software, Ansoft Maxewll. In comparison with the conventional planar windings in micro-scale systems, the magnetic drive force is increased by 150%.

Keywords: Micro-gyroscope, micro-electromagnetic, micro actuator.

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2448 Basic Calibration and Normalization Techniques for Time Domain Reflectometry Measurements

Authors: Shagufta Tabassum

Abstract:

The study of dielectric properties in a binary mixture of liquids is very useful to understand the liquid structure, molecular interaction, dynamics, and kinematics of the mixture. Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is a powerful tool for studying the cooperation and molecular dynamics of the H-bonded system. Here we discuss the basic calibration and normalization procedure for TDR measurements. Our aim is to explain different types of error occur during TDR measurements and how to minimize it.

Keywords: time domain reflectometry measurement technique, cable and connector loss, oscilloscope loss, normalization technique

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2447 Benchmarking of Pentesting Tools

Authors: Esteban Alejandro Armas Vega, Ana Lucila Sandoval Orozco, Luis Javier García Villalba

Abstract:

The benchmarking of tools for dynamic analysis of vulnerabilities in web applications is something that is done periodically, because these tools from time to time update their knowledge base and search algorithms, in order to improve their accuracy. Unfortunately, the vast majority of these evaluations are made by software enthusiasts who publish their results on blogs or on non-academic websites and always with the same evaluation methodology. Similarly, academics who have carried out this type of analysis from a scientific approach, the majority, make their analysis within the same methodology as well the empirical authors. This paper is based on the interest of finding answers to questions that many users of this type of tools have been asking over the years, such as, to know if the tool truly test and evaluate every vulnerability that it ensures do, or if the tool, really, deliver a real report of all the vulnerabilities tested and exploited. This kind of questions have also motivated previous work but without real answers. The aim of this paper is to show results that truly answer, at least on the tested tools, all those unanswered questions. All the results have been obtained by changing the common model of benchmarking used for all those previous works.

Keywords: Cybersecurity, IDS, security, web scanners, web vulnerabilities.

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2446 0.13-µm Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor Vector Modulator for Beamforming System

Authors: J. S. Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents a 0.13-µm Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) vector modulator for beamforming system. The vector modulator features a 360° phase and gain range of -10 dB to 10 dB with a root mean square phase and amplitude error of only 2.2° and 0.45 dB, respectively. These features make it a suitable for wireless backhaul system in the 5 GHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) bands. It draws a current of 20.4 mA from a 1.2 V supply. The total chip size is 1.87x1.34 mm².

Keywords: CMOS, vector modulator, beamforming, wireless backhaul, ISM.

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2445 The Performance Analysis of CSS-based Communication Systems in the Jamming Environment

Authors: Youngpo Lee, Sanghun Kim, Youngyoon Lee, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

Due to its capability to resist jamming signals, chirp spread spectrum (CSS) technique has attracted much attention in the area of wireless communications. However, there has been little rigorous analysis for the performance of the CSS communication system in jamming environments. In this paper, we present analytic results on the performance of a CSS system by deriving symbol error rate (SER) expressions for a CSS M-ary phase shift keying (MPSK) system in the presence of broadband and tone jamming signals, respectively. The numerical results show that the empirical SER closely agrees with the analytic result.

Keywords: CSS, DM, jamming, broadband jamming, tone jamming.

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2444 On Maneuvering Target Tracking with Online Observed Colored Glint Noise Parameter Estimation

Authors: M. A. Masnadi-Shirazi, S. A. Banani

Abstract:

In this paper a comprehensive algorithm is presented to alleviate the undesired simultaneous effects of target maneuvering, observed glint noise distribution, and colored noise spectrum using online colored glint noise parameter estimation. The simulation results illustrate a significant reduction in the root mean square error (RMSE) produced by the proposed algorithm compared to the algorithms that do not compensate all the above effects simultaneously.

Keywords: Glint noise, IMM, Kalman Filter, Kinematics, Target Tracking.

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2443 Reliability-Based Life-Cycle Cost Model for Engineering Systems

Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

Abstract:

The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: Initial Cost, Life-cycle cost, Maintenance Cost, Reliability.

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2442 Quadrature Formula for Sampled Functions

Authors: Khalid Minaoui, Thierry Chonavel, Benayad Nsiri, Driss Aboutajdine

Abstract:

This paper deals with efficient quadrature formulas involving functions that are observed only at fixed sampling points. The approach that we develop is derived from efficient continuous quadrature formulas, such as Gauss-Legendre or Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature. We select nodes at sampling positions that are as close as possible to those of the associated classical quadrature and we update quadrature weights accordingly. We supply the theoretical quadrature error formula for this new approach. We show on examples the potential gain of this approach.

Keywords: Gauss-Legendre, Clenshaw-Curtis, quadrature, Peano kernel, irregular sampling.

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2441 Modified Hankel Matrix Approach for Model Order Reduction in Time Domain

Authors: C. B. Vishwakarma

Abstract:

The author presented a method for model order reduction of large-scale time-invariant systems in time domain. In this approach, two modified Hankel matrices are suggested for getting reduced order models. The proposed method is simple, efficient and retains stability feature of the original high order system. The viability of the method is illustrated through the examples taken from literature.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction, Stability, Hankel Matrix, Time-Domain, Integral Square Error.

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2440 Deployment of Service Quality Characteristics

Authors: Shuki Dror

Abstract:

This work discusses an innovative methodology for deployment of service quality characteristics. Four groups of organizational features that may influence the quality of services are identified: human resource, technology, planning, and organizational relationships. A House of Service Quality (HOSQ) matrix is built to extract the desired improvement in the service quality characteristics and to translate them into a hierarchy of important organizational features. The Mean Square Error (MSE) criterion enables the pinpointing of the few essential service quality characteristics to be improved as well as selection of the vital organizational features. The method was implemented in an engineering supply enterprise and provides useful information on its vital service dimensions.

Keywords: HOQ, organizational features, service quality.

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2439 Effect of Rotor to Casing Ratios with Different Rotor Vanes on Performance of Shaft Output of a Vane Type Novel Air Turbine

Authors: Bharat Raj Singh, Onkar Singh

Abstract:

This paper deals with new concept of using compressed atmospheric air as a zero pollution power source for running motorbikes. The motorbike is equipped with an air turbine in place of an internal combustion engine, and transforms the energy of the compressed air into shaft work. The mathematical modeling and performance evaluation of a small capacity compressed air driven vaned type novel air turbine is presented in this paper. The effect of isobaric admission and adiabatic expansion of high pressure air for different rotor to casing diameter ratios with respect to different vane angles (number of vanes) have been considered and analyzed. It is found that the shaft work output is optimum for some typical values of rotor / casing diameter ratios at a particular value of vane angle (no. of vanes). In this study, the maximum power is obtained as 4.5kW - 5.3kW (5.5-6.25 HP) when casing diameter is taken 100 mm, and rotor to casing diameter ratios are kept from 0.65 to 0.55. This value of output is sufficient to run motorbike.

Keywords: zero pollution, compressed air, air turbine, vane angle, rotor / casing diameter ratio

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2438 A Multimodal Approach for Biometric Authentication with Multiple Classifiers

Authors: Sorin Soviany, Cristina Soviany, Mariana Jurian

Abstract:

The paper presents a multimodal approach for biometric authentication, based on multiple classifiers. The proposed solution uses a post-classification biometric fusion method in which the biometric data classifiers outputs are combined in order to improve the overall biometric system performance by decreasing the classification error rates. The paper shows also the biometric recognition task improvement by means of a carefully feature selection, as much as not all of the feature vectors components support the accuracy improvement.

Keywords: biometric fusion, multiple classifiers

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2437 Development of an Automatic Calibration Framework for Hydrologic Modelling Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

Abstract:

Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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2436 The Effect of Size, Thickness, and Type of the Bonding Interlayer on Bullet Proof Glass as per EN 1063

Authors: Rabinder Singh Bharj, Sandeep Kumar

Abstract:

This investigation presents preparation of sample and  analysis of results of ballistic impact test as per EN 1063 on the size,  thickness, number, position, and type of the bonding interlayer  Polyvinyl Butyral, Poly Carbonate and Poly Urethane on bullet proof  glass. It was observed that impact energy absorbed by bullet proof  glass increases with the increase of the total thickness from 33mm to  42mm to 51mm for all the three samples respectively. Absorption  impact energy is greater for samples with more number of bonding  interlayers than with the number of glass layers for uniform increase  in total sample thickness. There is no effect on the absorption impact  energy with the change in position of the bonding interlayer. 

Keywords: Absorbed energy, bullet proof glass, laminated glass, safety glass.

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2435 Adaptive Sliding Mode Observer for a Class of Systems

Authors: D.Elleuch, T.Damak

Abstract:

In this paper, the performance of two adaptive observers applied to interconnected systems is studied. The nonlinearity of systems can be written in a fractional form. The first adaptive observer is an adaptive sliding mode observer for a Lipchitz nonlinear system and the second one is an adaptive sliding mode observer having a filtered error as a sliding surface. After comparing their performances throughout the inverted pendulum mounted on a car system, it was shown that the second one is more robust to estimate the state.

Keywords: Adaptive observer, Lipchitz system, Interconnected fractional nonlinear system, sliding mode.

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2434 Machine Learning Techniques for Short-Term Rain Forecasting System in the Northeastern Part of Thailand

Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

Abstract:

This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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2433 Measurement of the Bipolarization Events

Authors: Stefan V. Stefanescu

Abstract:

We intend to point out the differences which exist between the classical Gini concentration coefficient and a proposed bipolarization index defined for an arbitrary random variable which have a finite support. In fact Gini's index measures only the "poverty degree" for the individuals from a given population taking into consideration their wages. The Gini coefficient is not so sensitive to the significant income variations in the "rich people class" . In practice there are multiple interdependent relations between the pauperization and the socio-economical polarization phenomena. The presence of a strong pauperization aspect inside the population induces often a polarization effect in this society. But the pauperization and the polarization phenomena are not identical. For this reason it isn't always adequate to use a Gini type coefficient, based on the Lorenz order, to estimate the bipolarization level of the individuals from the studied population. The present paper emphasizes these ideas by considering two families of random variables which have a linear or a triangular type distributions. In addition, the continuous variation, depending on the parameter "time" of the chosen distributions, could simulate a real dynamical evolution of the population.

Keywords: Bipolarization phenomenon, Gini coefficient, income distribution, poverty measure.

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2432 Seismic Behavior of Self-Balancing Post-Tensioned Reinforced Concrete Spatial Structure

Authors: Mircea Pastrav, Horia Constantinescu

Abstract:

The construction industry is currently trying to develop sustainable reinforced concrete structures. In trying to aid in the effort, the research presented in this paper aims to prove the efficiency of modified special hybrid moment frames composed of discretely jointed precast and post-tensioned concrete members. This aim is due to the fact that current design standards do not cover the spatial design of moment frame structures assembled by post-tensioning with special hybrid joints. This lack of standardization is coupled with the fact that previous experimental programs, available in scientific literature, deal mainly with plane structures and offer little information regarding spatial behavior. A spatial model of a modified hybrid moment frame is experimentally analyzed. The experimental results of a natural scale model test of a corner column-beams sub-structure, cut from an actual multilevel building tested to seismic type loading are presented in order to highlight the behavior of this type of structure. The test is performed under alternative cycles of imposed lateral displacements, up to a storey drift ratio of 0.035. Seismic response of the spatial model is discussed considering the acceptance criteria for reinforced concrete frame structures designed based on experimental tests, as well as some of its major sustainability features. The results obtained show an overall excellent behavior of the system. The joint detailing allows for quick and cheap repairs after an accidental event and a self-balancing behavior of the system that ensures it can be used almost immediately after an accidental event it.

Keywords: Modified hybrid joint, seismic type loading response, self-balancing structure, acceptance criteria.

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