Search results for: Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator

Authors: A.R. Pazoki, A. H. Shirani Rad, D. Habibi, F. Paknejad, S. Kobraee, N. Hadayat

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In the other to Study of drought stress and Selenium spraying effect on superoxide dismotase (SOD) activity of rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) cultivars in Shahr-e-Rey region, an experiment carried out in Split factorial design in the basis of randomized complete blocks with 4 replications in 2006. Irrigation in two levels: Normal irrigation and irrigation with drought stress when the soil electrical conductivity reached to 60 as main factor and rapeseed cultivars in 3 levels Zarfam, Okapi, Opera and selenium spraying at the beginning of flowering stage in 3 levels: 0, 16 and 21 g/ha as sub factor. The results showed that the simple and interaction effect of irrigation, selenium and cultivars on SOD activity had significant difference. In this case Zarfam cultivar with 2010 u.mg-1 protein and Opera with 1454 u.mg-1 protein produced maximum and minimum amounts of SOD activitiy. Interaction effect of irrigation and variety showed that, normal irrigation in Opera with 1115 u.mg-1 protein and drought stress in Zarfam with 2784 u.mg-1 protein conducted to and minimum and maximum amounts of SOD activity. Interaction effect of irrigation, cultivar and selenium on SOD indicated that drought stress condition and 21 gr/ha selenium spraying in Zarfam variety with 3146 u.mg-1 protein gained to highest activities of SOD.

Keywords: Drought stress, Rapeseed, Selenium, Superoxide dismutase.

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Authors: Yung-Yuan Chen, Kuen-Long Leu

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FlexRay, as a communication protocol for automotive control systems, is developed to fulfill the increasing demand on the electronic control units for implementing systems with higher safety and more comfort. In this work, we study the impact of radiation-induced soft errors on FlexRay-based steer-by-wire system. We injected the soft errors into general purpose register set of FlexRay nodes to identify the most critical registers, the failure modes of the steer-by-wire system, and measure the probability distribution of failure modes when an error occurs in the register file.

Keywords: Soft errors, FlexRay, fault injection, steer-by-wirer

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Authors: L. Almulla

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Native plants are better adapted to the local environment providing a more natural effect on landscape projects; their use will both conserve natural resources and produce sustainable greenery. Continuation of evaluation of additional native plants is essential to increase diversity of plant resources for greenery projects. Therefore, in this project an effort was made to study the mass multiplication of further native plants for greenery applications. Standardization of vegetative propagation methods is essential for conservation and sustainable utilization of native plants in restoration projects. Moreover, these simple propagation methods can be readily adapted by the local nursery sector in Kuwait. In the present study, various treatments were used to mass multiply selected plants using vegetative parts to secure maximum rooting and initial growth. Soft or semi-hardwood cuttings of selected native plants were collected from mother plants and subjected to different treatments. Pennisetum divisum can be vegetatively propagated by cuttings/off-shoots. However, Tamarix aucheriana showed maximum number of rooted cuttings and stronger vigor seedlings with the lowest growth hormone concentration. Standardizing the propagation techniques for the native plant species will add to the rehabilitation and landscape revegetation projects in Kuwait.

Keywords: Kuwait desert, landscape, rooting percentage vegetative propagation.

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Authors: Rupesh K. Gopal, Saroj K. Meher

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In this report we present a rule-based approach to detect anomalous telephone calls. The method described here uses subscriber usage CDR (call detail record) data sampled over two observation periods: study period and test period. The study period contains call records of customers- non-anomalous behaviour. Customers are first grouped according to their similar usage behaviour (like, average number of local calls per week, etc). For customers in each group, we develop a probabilistic model to describe their usage. Next, we use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. Then we determine thresholds by calculating acceptable change within a group. MLE is used on the data in the test period to estimate the parameters of the calling behaviour. These parameters are compared against thresholds. Any deviation beyond the threshold is used to raise an alarm. This method has the advantage of identifying local anomalies as compared to techniques which identify global anomalies. The method is tested for 90 days of study data and 10 days of test data of telecom customers. For medium to large deviations in the data in test window, the method is able to identify 90% of anomalous usage with less than 1% false alarm rate.

Keywords: Subscription fraud, fraud detection, anomalydetection, maximum likelihood estimation, rule based systems.

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Authors: Ioannis Neokosmidis, Nikos Gkekas, Thomas Kamalakis, Thomas Sphicopoulos

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In high powered dense wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) systems with low chromatic dispersion, four-wave mixing (FWM) can prove to be a major source of noise. The MultiCanonical Monte Carlo Method (MCMC) and the Split Step Fourier Method (SSFM) are combined to accurately evaluate the probability density function of the decision variable of a receiver, limited by FWM. The combination of the two methods leads to more accurate results, and offers the possibility of adding other optical noises such as the Amplified Spontaneous Emission (ASE) noise.

Keywords: Monte Carlo, Nonlinear optics, optical crosstalk, Wavelength-division Multiplexing (WDM).

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Authors: Qimin Yang

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In this paper, 3X3 routing nodes are proposed to provide speedup and parallel processing capability in Data Vortex network architectures. The new design not only significantly improves network throughput and latency, but also eliminates the need for distributive traffic control mechanism originally embedded among nodes and the need for nodal buffering. The cost effectiveness is studied by a comparison study with the previously proposed 2- input buffered networks, and considerable performance enhancement can be achieved with similar or lower cost of hardware. Unlike previous implementation, the network leaves small probability of contention, therefore, the packet drop rate must be kept low for such implementation to be feasible and attractive, and it can be achieved with proper choice of operation conditions.

Keywords: Data Vortex, Packet Switch, Interconnection network, deflection, Network-on-chip

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Authors: K. T. Huynh, I. Gibson, W. F. Lu, B. N. Jagdish

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In this paper, the construction of a detailed spine model is presented using the LifeMOD Biomechanics Modeler. The detailed spine model is obtained by refining spine segments in cervical, thoracic and lumbar regions into individual vertebra segments, using bushing elements representing the intervertebral discs, and building various ligamentous soft tissues between vertebrae. In the sagittal plane of the spine, constant force will be applied from the posterior to anterior during simulation to determine dynamic characteristics of the spine. The force magnitude is gradually increased in subsequent simulations. Based on these recorded dynamic properties, graphs of displacement-force relationships will be established in terms of polynomial functions by using the least-squares method and imported into a haptic integrated graphic environment. A thoracolumbar spine model with complex geometry of vertebrae, which is digitized from a resin spine prototype, will be utilized in this environment. By using the haptic technique, surgeons can touch as well as apply forces to the spine model through haptic devices to observe the locomotion of the spine which is computed from the displacement-force relationship graphs. This current study provides a preliminary picture of our ongoing work towards building and simulating bio-fidelity scoliotic spine models in a haptic integrated graphic environment whose dynamic properties are obtained from LifeMOD. These models can be helpful for surgeons to examine kinematic behaviors of scoliotic spines and to propose possible surgical plans before spine correction operations.

Keywords: Haptic interface, LifeMOD, spine modeling.

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Authors: Liliia N. Butymova, Vladimir Ya Modorskii

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To ensure the gas transmittal GCU's efficient operation, leakages through the labyrinth packings (LP) should be minimized. Leakages can be minimized by decreasing the LP gap, which in turn depends on thermal processes and possible rotor vibrations and is designed to ensure absence of mechanical contact. Vibration mitigation allows to minimize the LP gap. It is advantageous to research influence of processes in the dynamic gas-structure system on LP vibrations. This paper considers influence of rotor vibrations on LP gas dynamics and influence of the latter on the rotor structure within the FSI unidirectional dynamical coupled problem. Dependences of nonstationary parameters of gas-dynamic process in LP on rotor vibrations under various gas speeds and pressures, shaft rotation speeds and vibration amplitudes, and working medium features were studied. The programmed multi-processor ANSYS CFX was chosen as a numerical computation tool. The problem was solved using PNRPU high-capacity computer complex. Deformed shaft vibrations are replaced with an unyielding profile that moves in the fixed annulus "up-and-down" according to set harmonic rule. This solves a nonstationary gas-dynamic problem and determines time dependence of total gas-dynamic force value influencing the shaft. Pressure increase from 0.1 to 10 MPa causes growth of gas-dynamic force oscillation amplitude and frequency. The phase shift angle between gas-dynamic force oscillations and those of shaft displacement decreases from 3π/4 to π/2. Damping constant has maximum value under 1 MPa pressure in the gap. Increase of shaft oscillation frequency from 50 to 150 Hz under P=10 MPa causes growth of gas-dynamic force oscillation amplitude. Damping constant has maximum value at 50 Hz equaling 1.012. Increase of shaft vibration amplitude from 20 to 80 µm under P=10 MPa causes the rise of gas-dynamic force amplitude up to 20 times. Damping constant increases from 0.092 to 0.251. Calculations for various working substances (methane, perfect gas, air at 25 ˚С) prove the minimum gas-dynamic force persistent oscillating amplitude under P=0.1 MPa being observed in methane, and maximum in the air. Frequency remains almost unchanged and the phase shift in the air changes from 3π/4 to π/2. Calculations for various working substances (methane, perfect gas, air at 25 ˚С) prove the maximum gas-dynamic force oscillating amplitude under P=10 MPa being observed in methane, and minimum in the air. Air demonstrates surging. Increase of leakage speed from 0 to 20 m/s through LP under P=0.1 MPa causes the gas-dynamic force oscillating amplitude to decrease by 3 orders and oscillation frequency and the phase shift to increase 2 times and stabilize. Increase of leakage speed from 0 to 20 m/s in LP under P=1 MPa causes gas-dynamic force oscillating amplitude to decrease by almost 4 orders. The phase shift angle increases from π/72 to π/2. Oscillations become persistent. Flow rate proved to influence greatly on pressure oscillations amplitude and a phase shift angle. Work medium influence depends on operation conditions. At pressure growth, vibrations are mostly affected in methane (of working substances list considered), and at pressure decrease, in the air at 25 ˚С.

Keywords: Aeroelasticity, labyrinth packings, oscillation phase shift, vibration.

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Authors: Robert E. Hursig, Jane X. Zhang

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A robust still image face localization algorithm capable of operating in an unconstrained visual environment is proposed. First, construction of a robust skin classifier within a shifted HSV color space is described. Then various filtering operations are performed to better isolate face candidates and mitigate the effect of substantial non-skin regions. Finally, a novel Bhattacharyya-based face detection algorithm is used to compare candidate regions of interest with a unique illumination-dependent face model probability distribution function approximation. Experimental results show a 90% face detection success rate despite the demands of the visually noisy environment.

Keywords: Audio-visual speech recognition, Bhattacharyyacoefficient, face detection,

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Authors: R. Sammoura

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In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.

Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.

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Authors: Nelson F.F. Ebecken, Gilberto C. Pereira

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The objective of this work is to explicit knowledge on the interactions between the chlorophyll-a and nine meroplankton larvae of epibenthonic fauna. The studied case is the Arraial do Cabo upwelling system, Southeastern of Brazil, which provides different environmental conditions. To assess this information a network approach based in probability estimative was used. Comparisons among the generated graphs are made in the light of different water masses, application of Shannon biodiversity index, and the closeness and betweenness centralities measurements. Our results show the main pattern among different water masses and how the core organisms belonging to the network skeleton are correlated to the main environmental variable. We conclude that the approach of complex networks is a promising tool for environmental diagnostic.

Keywords: Coastal upwelling, Ecological networks, Plankton - interactions, Environmental analysis.

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Authors: Shan Gao

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This paper treats a discrete-time finite buffer batch arrival queue with a single working vacation and partial batch rejection in which the inter-arrival and service times are, respectively, arbitrary and geometrically distributed. The queue is analyzed by using the supplementary variable and the imbedded Markov-chain techniques. We obtain steady-state system length distributions at prearrival, arbitrary and outside observer-s observation epochs. We also present probability generation function (p.g.f.) of actual waiting-time distribution in the system and some performance measures.

Keywords: Discrete-time, finite buffer, single working vacation, batch arrival, partial rejection.

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Authors: Eun-Geun Kim, Won-Pil Park, Dae-Gon Woo, Chang-Yong Ko, Yong-Heum Lee, Dohyung Lim, Tae-Min Shin, Han-Sung Kim, Gyoun-Jung Lee

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Functional gastrointestinal disorders affect millions of people spread all age regardless of race and sex. There are, however, rare diagnostic methods for the functional gastrointestinal disorders because functional disorders show no evidence of organic and physical causes. Our research group identified recently that the gastrointestinal tract well in the patients with the functional gastrointestinal disorders becomes more rigid than healthy people when palpating the abdominal regions overlaying the gastrointestinal tract. Aim of this study is, therefore, to develop a diagnostic system for the functional gastrointestinal disorders based on ultrasound technique, which can quantify the characteristic above related to the rigidity of the gastrointestinal tract well. Ultrasound system was designed. The system consisted of transmitter, ultrasonic transducer, receiver, TGC, and CPLD, and verified via a phantom test. For the phantom test, ten soft-tissue specimens were harvested from porcine. Five of them were then treated chemically to mimic a rigid condition of gastrointestinal tract well, which was induced by functional gastrointestinal disorders. Additionally, the specimens were tested mechanically to identify if the mimic was reasonable. The customized ultrasound system was finally verified through application to human subjects with/without functional gastrointestinal disorders (Normal and Patient Groups). It was identified from the mechanical test that the chemically treated specimens were more rigid than normal specimen. This finding was favorably compared with the result obtained from the phantom test. The phantom test also showed that ultrasound system well described the specimen geometric characteristics and detected an alteration in the specimens. The maximum amplitude of the ultrasonic reflective signal in the rigid specimens (0.2±0.1Vp-p) at the interface between the fat and muscle layers was explicitly higher than that in the normal specimens (0.1±0.0Vp-p). Clinical tests using our customized ultrasound system for human subject showed that the maximum amplitudes of the ultrasonic reflective signals near to the gastrointestinal tract well for the patient group (2.6±0.3Vp-p) were generally higher than those in normal group (0.1±0.2Vp-p). Here, maximum reflective signals was appeared at 20mm depth approximately from abdominal skin for all human subjects, corresponding to the location of the boundary layer close to gastrointestinal tract well. These results suggest that newly designed diagnostic system based on ultrasound technique may diagnose enough the functional gastrointestinal disorders.

Keywords: Functional Gastrointestinal Disorders, DiagnosticSystem, Phantom Test, Ultrasound System.

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Authors: Adibah Shuib, Zati Aqmar Zaharudin

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Our study is concerned with the development of an Emergency Medical Services (EMS) ambulance location and allocation model called the Time-based Ambulance Zoning Optimization Model (TAZ_OPT). This paper presents the framework of the study. The model is formulated using the goal programming (GP), where the goals are to determine the satellite locations of ambulances and the number of ambulances to be allocated at these locations. The model aims at maximizing the expected demand coverage based on probability of reaching the emergency location within targetted time, and minimizing the ambulance busyness likelihood value. Among the benefits of the model is the increased accessibility and availability of ambulances, thus, enhanced quality of the EMS ambulance services.

Keywords: Optimization, Ambulance Location, Location facilities.

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Authors: S. Mosadegh Sedghi, Y. Mortazavi, A. Khodadadi, O. Alizadeh Sahraei, M. Vesali Naseh

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In this study, a low temperature sensor highly selective to CO in presence of methane is fabricated by using 4 nm SnO2 quantum dots (QDs) prepared by sonication assisted precipitation. SnCl4 aqueous solution was precipitated by ammonia under sonication, which continued for 2 h. A part of the sample was then dried and calcined at 400°C for 1.5 h and characterized by XRD and BET. The average particle size and the specific surface area of the SnO2 QDs as well as their sensing properties were compared with the SnO2 nano-particles which were prepared by conventional sol-gel method. The BET surface area of sonochemically as-prepared product and the one calcined at 400°C after 1.5 hr are 257 m2/gr and 212 m2/gr respectively while the specific surface area for SnO2 nanoparticles prepared by conventional sol-gel method is about 80m2/gr. XRD spectra revealed pure crystalline phase of SnO2 is formed for both as-prepared and calcined samples of SnO2 QDs. However, for the sample prepared by sol-gel method and calcined at 400°C SnO crystals are detected along with those of SnO2. Quantum dots of SnO2 show exceedingly high sensitivity to CO with different concentrations of 100, 300 and 1000 ppm in whole range of temperature (25- 350°C). At 50°C a sensitivity of 27 was obtained for 1000 ppm CO, which increases to a maximum of 147 when the temperature rises to 225°C and then drops off while the maximum sensitivity for the SnO2 sample prepared by the sol-gel method was obtained at 300°C with the amount of 47.2. At the same time no sensitivity to methane is observed in whole range of temperatures for SnO2 QDs. The response and recovery times of the sensor sharply decreases with temperature, while the high selectivity to CO does not deteriorate.

Keywords: Sonochemical, SnO2 QDs, SnO2 gas sensor

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Authors: P. Niranatlumpong, H. Koiprasert, C. Sukhonket, K. Ninon, N. Coompreedee

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The use of a conventional air plasma-sprayed thermal barrier coating (TBC) and a porous, functionally graded TBC as a thermal insulator for Al7075 alloy was explored. A quench test at 1200°C employing fast heating and cooling rates was setup to represent a dynamic thermal condition of an aerospace component. During the test, coated samples were subjected the ambient temperature of 1200°C for a very short time. This was followed by a rapid drop in temperature resulting in cracking of the coatings. For the conventional TBC, it was found that the temperature of the Al7075 substrate decreases with the increase in the ZrO₂ topcoat thickness. However, at the topcoat thickness of 1100 µm, large horizontal cracks can be observed in the topcoat and at the topcoat thickness of 1600 µm, the topcoat delaminate during cooling after the quench test. The porous, functionally graded TBC with 600 µm thick topcoat, on the other hand, was found to be as effective at reducing the substrate temperature as the conventional TBC with 1100 µm thick topcoat. The maximum substrate temperature is about 213°C for the former and 208°C for the latter when a heating rate of 38°C/s was used. When the quench tests were conducted with a faster heating rate of 128°C/s, the Al7075 substrate heat up faster with a reduction in the maximum substrate temperatures. The substrate temperatures dropped from 297 to 212°C for the conventional TBC and from 213 to 155°C for the porous TBC, both with 600 µm thick topcoat. Segmentation cracks were observed in both coating after the quench test.

Keywords: Thermal barrier coating, Al7075, porous TBC, Quenching.

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Authors: P. Booma Devi, Dilip A. Shah

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This paper seeks the potentials of studying aerodynamic characteristics of inward cavities called dimples, as an alternative to the classical vortex generators. Increasing stalling angle is a greater challenge in wing design. But our examination is primarily focused on increasing lift. In this paper, enhancement of lift is mainly done by introduction of dimple or cavity in a wing. In general, aircraft performance can be enhanced by increasing aerodynamic efficiency that is lift to drag ratio of an aircraft wing. Efficiency improvement can be achieved by improving the maximum lift co-efficient or by reducing the drag co-efficient. At the time of landing aircraft, high angle of attack may lead to stalling of aircraft. To avoid this kind of situation, increase in the stalling angle is warranted. Hence, improved stalling characteristic is the best way to ease landing complexity. Computational analysis is done for the wing segment made of NACA 0012. Simulation is carried out for 30 m/s free stream velocity over plain airfoil and different types of cavities. The wing is modeled in CATIA V5R20 and analyses are carried out using ANSYS CFX. Triangle and square shapes are used as cavities for analysis. Simulations revealed that cavity placed on wing segment shows an increase of maximum lift co-efficient when compared to normal wing configuration. Flow separation is delayed at downstream of the wing by the presence of cavities up to a particular angle of attack.

Keywords: Lift, square and rectangle dimples, enhancement of stall angle, cavity.

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Authors: Gangacharyulu Dasaroju, Sumeet Sharma, Sanjay Singh

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Heat pipe is characterised as superconductor of heat because of its excellent heat removal ability. The operation of several engineering system results in generation of heat. This may cause several overheating problems and lead to failure of the systems. To overcome this problem and to achieve desired rate of heat dissipation, there is need to study the performance of heat pipe with annular fins under free convection at different inclinations. This study demonstrates the effect of different mass flow rate of hot fluid into evaporator section on the condenser side heat transfer coefficient with annular fins under natural convection at different inclinations. In this study annular fins are used for the experimental work having dimensions of length of fin, thickness of fin and spacing of fin as 10 mm, 1 mm and 6 mm, respectively. The main aim of present study is to discover at what inclination angles the maximum heat transfer coefficient shall be achieved. The heat transfer coefficient on the external surface of heat pipe condenser section is determined by experimental method and then predicted by empirical correlations. The results obtained from experimental and Churchill and Chu relation for laminar are in fair agreement with not more than 22% deviation. It is elucidated the maximum heat transfer coefficient of 31.2 W/(m²-K) at 25˚ tilt angle and minimal condenser heat transfer coefficient of 26.4 W/(m²-K) is seen at 45˚ tilt angle and 200 ml/min mass flow rate. Inclination angle also affects the thermal performance of heat pipe. Beyond 25^o inclination, heat transport rate starts to decrease.

Keywords: Annular fins, condenser heat transfer coefficient, heat pipe, natural convection, tilt angle.

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Authors: Ravi Kiran Pothamsetty, Radha Rani Ghosh, Baby Paul Thaliath

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Radiation therapy has undergone many advancements and evloved from 2D to 3D. Recently, with rapid pace of drug discoveries, cutting edge technology, and clinical trials has made innovative advancements in computer technology and treatment planning and upgraded to intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) which delivers in homogenous dose to tumor and normal tissues. The present study was a hospital-based experience comparing two different conformal radiotherapy techniques for brain tumors. This analytical study design has been conducted at Regional Cancer Centre, India from January 2014 to January 2015. Ten patients have been selected after inclusion and exclusion criteria. All the patients were treated on Artiste Siemens Linac Accelerator. The tolerance level for maximum dose was 6.0 Gyfor lenses and 54.0 Gy for brain stem, optic chiasm and optical nerves as per RTOG criteria. Mean and standard deviation values of PTV98%, PTV 95% and PTV 2% in IMRT were 93.16±2.9, 95.01±3.4 and 103.1±1.1 respectively; for 3DCRT were 91.4±4.7, 94.17±2.6 and 102.7±0.39 respectively. PTV max dose (%) in IMRT and 3D-CRT were 104.7±0.96 and 103.9±1.0 respectively. Maximum dose to the tumor can be delivered with IMRT with acceptable toxicity limits. Variables such as expertise, location of tumor, patient condition, and TPS influence the outcome of the treatment.

Keywords: IMRT, 3D CRT, Brain, tumors, OARs, RTOG.

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Authors: Hechmi Saidi, Noureddine Hamdi

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The performance of hybrid amplify and forward - decode and forward (AF-DF) hybrid radio frequency/free space optical (RF/FSO) communication system, that adopts M-ary pulse position modulation (MPPM) techniques, is analyzed. Both exact and approximate symbol-error rates (SERs) are derived. The random variations of the received optical irradiance, produced by the atmospheric turbulence, is modeled by the gamma-gamma (GG) statistical distribution. A closed-form expression for the probability density function (PDF) is derived for the whole above system is obtained. Thanks to the use of hybrid AF-DF hybrid RF/FSO configuration and MPPM, the effects of atmospheric turbulence is mitigated; hence the capacity of combating atmospheric turbulence and the transmissitted signal quality are improved.

Keywords: FSO, RF, hybrid, AF, DF, SER, SNR, GG channel.

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

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In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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Authors: Tanveer Ahmed Bhuiyan, Samiul Hayder Choudhury, Asif Al - Rasheed, S.P. Majumder

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In this paper, the effect of atmospheric turbulence on bit error probability in free-space optical CDMA scheme with Sequence Inverse Keyed (SIK) optical correlator receiver is analyzed. Here Intensity Modulation scheme is considered for transmission. The turbulence induced fading is described by the newly introduced gamma-gamma pdf[1] as a tractable mathematical model for atmospheric turbulence. Results are evaluated with Gold and Kasami code & it is shown that Gold sequence can be used for more efficient transmission than Kasami sequence in an atmospheric turbulence channel.

Keywords: CDMA, gamma-gamma pdf, atmospheric turbulence, Kasami, Gold, SIK, BER, Power Penalty, FSO.

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Authors: A. Gandomkar, R. Dehghani

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Climate change is a phenomenon has been based on the available evidence from a very long time ago and now its existence is very probable. The speed and nature of climate parameters changes at the middle of twentieth century has been different and its quickness more than the before and its trend changed to some extent comparing to the past. Climate change issue now regarded as not only one of the most common scientific topic but also a social political one, is not a new issue. Climate change is a complicated atmospheric oceanic phenomenon on a global scale and long-term. Precipitation pattern change, fast decrease of snowcovered resources and its rapid melting, increased evaporation, the occurrence of destroying floods, water shortage crisis, severe reduction at the rate of harvesting agricultural products and, so on are all the significant of climate change. To cope with this phenomenon, its consequences and events in which public instruction is the most important but it may be climate that no significant cant and effective action has been done so far. The present article is included a part of one surrey about climate change in Fars. The study area having annually mean temperature 14 and precipitation 320 mm .23 stations inside the basin with a common 37 year statistical period have been applied to the meteorology data (1974-2010). Man-kendal and change factor methods are two statistical methods, applying them, the trend of changes and the annual mean average temperature and the annual minimum mean temperature were studied by using them. Based on time series for each parameter, the annual mean average temperature and the mean of annual maximum temperature have a rising trend so that this trend is clearer to the mean of annual maximum temperature.

Keywords: Climate change, Coefficient Variation, Fars province, Man-Kendal method.

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Authors: S. Jamshidi, E. Feizi Ashtiani, M. Ardestani

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Waste Load Allocation (WLA) strategies usually intend to find economic policies for water resource management. Water quality trading (WQT) is an approach that uses discharge permit market to reduce total environmental protection costs. This primarily requires assigning discharge limits known as total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). These are determined by monitoring organizations with respect to the receiving water quality and remediation capabilities. The purpose of this study is to compare two approaches of TMDL assignment for WQT policy in small catchment area of Haraz River, in north of Iran. At first, TMDLs are assigned uniformly for the whole point sources to keep the concentrations of BOD and dissolved oxygen (DO) at the standard level at checkpoint (terminus point). This was simply simulated and controlled by Qual2kw software. In the second scenario, TMDLs are assigned using multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) method in which the environmental violation at river basin and total treatment costs are minimized simultaneously. In both scenarios, the equity index and the WLA based on trading discharge permits (TDP) are calculated. The comparative results showed that using economically optimized TMDLs (2nd scenario) has slightly more cost savings rather than uniform TMDL approach (1st scenario). The former annually costs about 1 M$ while the latter is 1.15 M$. WQT can decrease these annual costs to 0.9 and 1.1 M$, respectively. In other word, these approaches may save 35 and 45% economically in comparison with command and control policy. It means that using multi objective decision support systems (DSS) may find more economical WLA, however its outcome is not necessarily significant in comparison with uniform TMDLs. This may be due to the similar impact factors of dischargers in small catchments. Conversely, using uniform TMDLs for WQT brings more equity that makes stakeholders not feel that much envious of difference between TMDL and WQT allocation. In addition, for this case, determination of TMDLs uniformly would be much easier for monitoring. Consequently, uniform TMDL for TDP market is recommended as a sustainable approach. However, economical TMDLs can be used for larger watersheds.

Keywords: Waste load allocation (WLA), Water quality trading (WQT), Total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), Haraz River, Multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), Equity.

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Authors: Luthful A. Kawsar, Noraida A. Ghani, Anton A. Kamil, Adli Mustafa

Abstract:

In this paper, we use an M/G/C/C state dependent queuing model within a complex network topology to determine the different performance measures for pedestrian traffic flow. The occupants in this network topology need to go through some source corridors, from which they can choose their suitable exiting corridors. The performance measures were calculated using arrival rates that maximize the throughputs of source corridors. In order to increase the throughput of the network, the result indicates that the flow direction of pedestrian through the corridors has to be restricted and the arrival rates to the source corridor need to be controlled.

Keywords: Arrival rate, Multiple arrival sources, Probability of blocking, State dependent queuing networks, Throughput.

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Authors: Irene Perez-Alfaro, Nieves Murillo, Carlos Bernal, Daniel Gil-Hernandez

Abstract:

Nowadays, the increasing applicability of internet of things (IoT) systems has changed the way that the world around is perceived. The massive interconnection of systems by means of sensing, processing and communication, allows multitude of data to be at our fingertips. In this way, countless advances have been made in different fields such as personal care, predictive maintenance in industry, quality control in production processes, security, and in everything imaginable. However, all these electronic systems have in common the need to be electrically powered. In this context, batteries and wires are the most commonly used solutions, but they are not a definitive solution in some applications, because of the attainability, the serviceability, or the performance requirements. Therefore, the need arises to look for other types of solutions based on energy harvesting and long-life electronics. Energy Harvesting can be defined as the action of capturing energy from the environment and store it for an instantaneous use or later use. Among the materials capable of harvesting energy from the environment, such as thermoelectrics, electromagnetics, photovoltaics or triboelectrics, the most suitable is the piezoelectric material. The phenomenon of piezoelectricity is one of the most powerful sources for energy harvesting, ranging from a few micro wats to hundreds of wats, depending on certain factors such as material type, geometry, excitation frequency, mechanical and electrical configurations, among others. In this research work, an exhaustive study is carried out on how different types of piezoelectric materials and electrical configurations influence the maximum power that a bimorph harvester is able to extract from mechanical vibrations. A series of experiments has been carried out in which the manufactured bimorph specimens are excited under fixed inertial vibrational conditions. In addition, in order to evaluate the dependence of the maximum transferred power, different load resistors are tested. In this way, the pure active power that achieves the maximum power transfer can be approximated. In this paper, we present the design of low-cost energy harvesting solutions based on piezoelectric smart materials with tunable frequency. The results obtained show the differences in energy extraction between the PZT materials studied and their electrical configurations. The aim of this work is to gain a better understanding of the behavior of piezoelectric materials, and the design process of bimorph PZT harvesters to optimize environmental energy extraction.

Keywords: Bimorph harvesters, electrical impedance, energy harvesting, piezoelectric, smart material.

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Authors: Junaid Kameran Ahmed

Abstract:

A laminated plate composite of graphite/epoxy has been analyzed dynamically in the present work by using a quadratic element (8-node diso-parametric), and by depending on 1^st order shear deformation theory, every node in this element has 6-degrees of freedom (displacement in x, y, and z axis and twist about x, y, and z axis). The dynamic analysis in the present work covered parametric studies on a composite laminated plate (square plate) to determine its effect on the natural frequency of the plate. The parametric study is represented by set of changes (plate thickness, number of layers, support conditions, layer orientation), and the plates have been simulated by using ANSYS package 12. The boundary conditions considered in this study, at all four edges of the plate, are simply supported and fixed boundary condition. The results obtained from ANSYS program show that the natural frequency for both fixed and simply supported increases with increasing the number of layers, but this increase in the natural frequency for the first five modes will be neglected after 10 layers. And it is observed that the natural frequency of a composite laminated plate will change with the change of ply orientation, the natural frequency increases and it will be at maximum with angle 45 of ply for simply supported laminated plate, and maximum natural frequency will be with cross-ply (0/90) for fixed laminated composite plate. It is also observed that the natural frequency increase is approximately doubled when the thickness is doubled.

Keywords: Laminated plate, orthotropic plate, square plate, natural frequency, graphite/epoxy.

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Authors: N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Zh. Kerimkulov, D. K. Alimov, A. V. Yushkov, N. Amangeldi, A. N. Bakhtibaev

Abstract:

The main aim of the current work is to examine if 14N  is candidate to be clusterized nuclei or not. In order to check this  attendance, we have measured the angular distributions for 14N ion  beam elastically scattered on 12C target nuclei at different low  energies; 17.5, 21, and 24.5MeV which are close to the Coulomb  barrier energy for 14N+12C nuclear system. Study of various transfer  reactions could provide us with useful information about the  attendance of nuclei to be in a composite form (core + valence). The  experimental data were analyzed using two approaches;  Phenomenological (Optical Potential) and semi-microscopic (Double  Folding Potential). The agreement between the experimental data and  the theoretical predictions is fairly good in the whole angular range.

 

Keywords: Deuteron Transfer, Elastic Scattering, Optical Model, Double Folding, Density Distribution.

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Authors: A. Ben Yaghlane, M. N. Azaiez, M. Mrad

Abstract:

We investigate the large scale of networks in the context of network survivability under attack. We use appropriate techniques to evaluate and the attacker-based- and the defenderbased- network survivability. The attacker is unaware of the operated links by the defender. Each attacked link has some pre-specified probability to be disconnected. The defender choice is so that to maximize the chance of successfully sending the flow to the destination node. The attacker however will select the cut-set with the highest chance to be disabled in order to partition the network. Moreover, we extend the problem to the case of selecting the best p paths to operate by the defender and the best k cut-sets to target by the attacker, for arbitrary integers p,k>1. We investigate some variations of the problem and suggest polynomial-time solutions.

Keywords: Defense/attack strategies, large scale, networks, partitioning a network.

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Authors: Oscar E. Cariceo

Abstract:

In Chile, there is a lack of evidence about the impact of polyvictimization on the emergence of suicidal thoughts among children and young people. Thus, this study aims to explore the association between the episodes of polyvictimization suffered by Chilean children and young people and the manifestation of signs related to suicidal tendencies. To achieve this purpose, secondary data from the First Polyvictimization Survey on Children and Adolescents of 2017 were analyzed, and a binomial logistic regression model was applied to establish the probability that young people are experiencing suicidal ideation episodes. The main findings show that women between the ages of 13 and 15 years, who are in seventh grade and second in subsidized schools, are more likely to express suicidal ideas, which increases if they have suffered different types of victimization, particularly physical violence, psychological aggression, and sexual abuse.

Keywords: Chile, polyvictimization, suicidal ideation, youth.

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