Search results for: Virus infection model
6820 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting
Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi
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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26996819 A Multiple Linear Regression Model to Predict the Price of Cement in Nigeria
Authors: Kenneth M. Oba
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This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R2 of 0.8428 and R2 (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.
Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7726818 A Trust Model using Fuzzy Logic in Wireless Sensor Network
Authors: Tae Kyung Kim, Hee Suk Seo
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Adapting various sensor devices to communicate within sensor networks empowers us by providing range of possibilities. The sensors in sensor networks need to know their measurable belief of trust for efficient and safe communication. In this paper, we suggested a trust model using fuzzy logic in sensor network. Trust is an aggregation of consensus given a set of past interaction among sensors. We applied our suggested model to sensor networks in order to show how trust mechanisms are involved in communicating algorithm to choose the proper path from source to destination.Keywords: Fuzzy, Sensor Networks, Trust.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 35366817 Development of Risk Assessment and Occupational Safety Management Model for Building Construction Projects
Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An
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In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.
Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23256816 TELUM Land Use Model: An Investigation of Data Requirements and Calibration Results for Chittenden County MPO, U.S.A.
Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou
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TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modeling.
Keywords: Calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, Metropolitan Planning Organizations.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20816815 A Framework of the Factors Affecting the Adoption of ICT for Physical Education
Authors: T. T. Ntshakala, S. D. Eyono Obono
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Physical education (PE) is still neglected in schools despite its academic, social, psychological, and health benefits. Based on the assumption that Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) can contribute to the development of PE in schools, this study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of ICTs for PE in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of technology adoption theories and of ICT adoption factors for physical education. The technology adoption model that fitted to the best all ICT adoption factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. It was found that the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is the most adequate theoretical framework for the modeling of ICT adoption factors for physical education.
Keywords: Adoption factors, basic education, physical education, technology adoption theories.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 34626814 Tuning of Thermal FEA Using Krylov Parametric MOR for Subsea Application
Authors: A. Suleng, T. Jelstad Olsen, J. Šindler, P. Bárta
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A dead leg is a typical subsea production system component. CFD is required to model heat transfer within the dead leg. Unfortunately its solution is time demanding and thus not suitable for fast prediction or repeated simulations. Therefore there is a need to create a thermal FEA model, mimicking the heat flows and temperatures seen in CFD cool down simulations. This paper describes the conventional way of tuning and a new automated way using parametric model order reduction (PMOR) together with an optimization algorithm. The tuned FE analyses replicate the steady state CFD parameters within a maximum error in heat flow of 6 % and 3 % using manual and PMOR method respectively. During cool down, the relative error of the tuned FEA models with respect to temperature is below 5% comparing to the CFD. In addition, the PMOR method obtained the correct FEA setup five times faster than the manually tuned FEA.Keywords: CFD, convective heat, FEA, model tuning, subseaproduction
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17136813 Research on the Problems of Housing Prices in Qingdao from a Macro Perspective
Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi
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Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.
Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11676812 Uniformly Persistence of a Predator-Prey Model with Holling III Type Functional Response
Authors: Yanling Zhu
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In this paper, a predator-prey model with Holling III type functional response is studied. It is interesting that the system is always uniformly persistent, which yields the existence of at least one positive periodic solutions for the corresponding periodic system. The result improves the corresponding ones in [11]. Moreover, an example is illustrated to verify the results by simulation.
Keywords: Predator-prey model, Uniformly persistence, Comparisontheorem, Holling III type functional response.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14686811 Increasing the Heterogeneity and Competition of Early Stage Financing: An Analysis of the Role of Crowdfunding in Entrepreneurial Ventures
Authors: Lars Silver, Björn Berggren, Andreas Fili
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The financial crisis has decreased the opportunities of small businesses to acquire financing through conventional financial actors, such as commercial banks. This credit constraint is partly the reason for the emergence of new alternatives of financing, in addition to the spreading opportunities for communication and secure financial transfer through Internet. One of the most interesting venues for finance is termed “crowdfunding". As the term suggests crowdfunding is an appeal to prospective customers and investors to form a crowd that will finance projects that otherwise would find it hard to generate support through the most common financial actors. Crowdfunding is in this paper divided into different models; the threshold model, the microfinance model, the micro loan model and the equity model. All these models add to the financial possibilities of emerging entrepreneurs.Keywords: Entrepreneurship, crowdfunding, equity finance, bank finance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26716810 Seismic Analysis of a S-Curved Viaduct using Stick and Finite Element Models
Authors: Sourabh Agrawal, Ashok K. Jain
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Stick models are widely used in studying the behaviour of straight as well as skew bridges and viaducts subjected to earthquakes while carrying out preliminary studies. The application of such models to highly curved bridges continues to pose challenging problems. A viaduct proposed in the foothills of the Himalayas in Northern India is chosen for the study. It is having 8 simply supported spans @ 30 m c/c. It is doubly curved in horizontal plane with 20 m radius. It is inclined in vertical plane as well. The superstructure consists of a box section. Three models have been used: a conventional stick model, an improved stick model and a 3D finite element model. The improved stick model is employed by making use of body constraints in order to study its capabilities. The first 8 frequencies are about 9.71% away in the latter two models. Later the difference increases to 80% in 50th mode. The viaduct was subjected to all three components of the El Centro earthquake of May 1940. The numerical integration was carried out using the Hilber- Hughes-Taylor method as implemented in SAP2000. Axial forces and moments in the bridge piers as well as lateral displacements at the bearing levels are compared for the three models. The maximum difference in the axial forces and bending moments and displacements vary by 25% between the improved and finite element model. Whereas, the maximum difference in the axial forces, moments, and displacements in various sections vary by 35% between the improved stick model and equivalent straight stick model. The difference for torsional moment was as high as 75%. It is concluded that the stick model with body constraints to model the bearings and expansion joints is not desirable in very sharp S curved viaducts even for preliminary analysis. This model can be used only to determine first 10 frequency and mode shapes but not for member forces. A 3D finite element analysis must be carried out for meaningful results.Keywords: Bearing, body constraint, box girder, curved viaduct, expansion joint, finite element, link element, seismic, stick model, time history analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23406809 Early Supplier Involvement in New Product Development: A Casting-Network Collaboration Model
Authors: Taneli Eisto, Venlakaisa Hölttä, Katrine Mahlamäki, Janne Kollanus, Marko Nieminen
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Early supplier involvement (ESI) benefits new product development projects several ways. Nevertheless, many castuser companies do not know the advantages of ESI and therefore do not utilize it. This paper presents reasons why to utilize ESI in casting industry and how that can be done. Further, this paper presents advantages and challenges related to ESI in casting industry, and introduces a Casting-Network Collaboration Model. The model presents practices for companies to build advantageous collaborative relationships. More detailed, the model describes three levels for company-network relationships in casting industry with different degrees of collaboration, and requirements for operating in each level. In our research, ESI was found to influence, for example, on project time, component cost, and quality. In addition, challenges related to ESI, such as, a lack of mutual trust and unawareness about the advantages were found. Our research approach was a case study including four cases.Keywords: Casting Industry, Collaboration Model, EarlySupplier Involvement, New Product Development.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 84606808 Numerical Analysis of Rapid Gas Decompression in Pure Nitrogen using 1D and 3D Transient Mathematical Models of Gas Flow in Pipes
Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy
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The paper presents a numerical investigation on the rapid gas decompression in pure nitrogen which is made by using the one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) mathematical models of transient compressible non-isothermal fluid flow in pipes. A 1D transient mathematical model of compressible thermal multicomponent fluid mixture flow in pipes is presented. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved in the model. Thermo-physical properties of multicomponent gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. This model is successfully validated on the experimental data [1] and shows a good agreement with measurements. A 3D transient mathematical model of compressible thermal single-component gas flow in pipes, which is built by using the CFD Fluent code (ANSYS), is presented in the paper. The set of unsteady Reynolds-averaged conservation equations for gas phase is solved. Thermo-physical properties of single-component gas are calculated by solving the Real Gas Equation of State (EOS) model. The simplest case of gas decompression in pure nitrogen is simulated using both 1D and 3D models. The ability of both models to simulate the process of rapid decompression with a high order of agreement with each other is tested. Both, 1D and 3D numerical results show a good agreement between each other. The numerical investigation shows that 3D CFD model is very helpful in order to validate 1D simulation results if the experimental data is absent or limited.Keywords: Mathematical model, Rapid Gas Decompression
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22076807 Research on Hybrid Neural Network in Intrusion Detection System
Authors: Jianhua Wang, Yan Yu
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This paper presents an intrusion detection system of hybrid neural network model based on RBF and Elman. It is used for anomaly detection and misuse detection. This model has the memory function .It can detect discrete and related aggressive behavior effectively. RBF network is a real-time pattern classifier, and Elman network achieves the memory ability for former event. Based on the hybrid model intrusion detection system uses DARPA data set to do test evaluation. It uses ROC curve to display the test result intuitively. After the experiment it proves this hybrid model intrusion detection system can effectively improve the detection rate, and reduce the rate of false alarm and fail.
Keywords: RBF, Elman, anomaly detection, misuse detection, hybrid neural network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23176806 A Variable Structure MRAC for a Class of MIMO Systems
Authors: Ardeshir Karami Mohammadi
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A Variable Structure Model Reference Adaptive Controller using state variables is proposed for a class of multi input-multi output systems. Adaptation law is of variable structure type and switching functions is designed based on stability requirements. Global exponential stability is proved based on Lyapunov criterion. Transient behavior is analyzed using sliding mode control and shows perfect model following at a finite time.Keywords: Adaptive control, Model reference, Variablestructure, MIMO system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15626805 Development of a Value Evaluation Model of Highway Box-Girder Bridge
Authors: Hao Hsi Tseng
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Taiwan’s infrastructure is gradually deteriorating, while resources for maintenance and replacement are increasingly limited, raising the urgent need for methods for maintaining existing infrastructure within constrained budgets. Infrastructure value evaluation is used to enhance the efficiency of infrastructure maintenance work, allowing administrators to quickly assess the maintenance needs and performance by observing variation in infrastructure value. This research establishes a value evaluation model for Taiwan’s highway box girder bridges. The operating mechanism and process of the model are illustrated in a practical case.Keywords: Box girder bridge, deterioration, infrastructure, maintenance, value evaluation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12236804 WiFi Data Offloading: Bundling Method in a Canvas Business Model
Authors: Majid Mokhtarnia, Alireza Amini
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Mobile operators deal with increasing in the data traffic as a critical issue. As a result, a vital responsibility of the operators is to deal with such a trend in order to create added values. This paper addresses a bundling method in a Canvas business model in a WiFi Data Offloading (WDO) strategy by which some elements of the model may be affected. In the proposed method, it is supposed to sell a number of data packages for subscribers in which there are some packages with a free given volume of data-offloaded WiFi complimentary. The paper on hands analyses this method in the views of attractiveness and profitability. The results demonstrate that the quality of implementation of the WDO strongly affects the final result and helps the decision maker to make the best one.
Keywords: Bundling, canvas business model, telecommunication, WiFi Data Offloading.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8746803 A Purpose Based Usage Access Control Model
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As privacy becomes a major concern for consumers and enterprises, many research have been focused on the privacy protecting technology in recent years. In this paper, we present a comprehensive approach for usage access control based on the notion purpose. In our model, purpose information associated with a given data element specifies the intended use of the subjects and objects in the usage access control model. A key feature of our model is that it allows when an access is required, the access purpose is checked against the intended purposes for the data item. We propose an approach to represent purpose information to support access control based on purpose information. Our proposed solution relies on usage access control (UAC) models as well as the components which based on the notions of the purpose information used in subjects and objects. Finally, comparisons with related works are analyzed.Keywords: Purpose, privacy, access control, authorization
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18686802 An Ontology Model for Systems Engineering Derived from ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015: Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes
Authors: Lan Yang, Kathryn Cormican, Ming Yu
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ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015, Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes is an international standard that provides generic top-level process descriptions to support systems engineering (SE). However, the processes defined in the standard needs improvement to lift integrity and consistency. The goal of this research is to explore the way by building an ontology model for the SE standard to manage the knowledge of SE. The ontology model gives a whole picture of the SE knowledge domain by building connections between SE concepts. Moreover, it creates a hierarchical classification of the concepts to fulfil different requirements of displaying and analysing SE knowledge.Keywords: Knowledge management, model-based systems engineering, ontology modelling, systems engineering ontology.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18446801 Information Modelling for Adaptive Composition in Collaborative Work Environment
Authors: Sang Keun Rhee, Hyojeong Jin, Jihye Lee, Misoo Kwon, Myon-Woong Park, Sungdo Ha
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Extensive information is required within a R&D environment, and a considerable amount of time and efforts are being spent on finding the necessary information. An adaptive information providing system would be beneficial to the environment, and a conceptual model of the resources, people and context is mandatory for developing such applications. In this paper, an information model on various contexts and resources is proposed which provides the possibility of effective applications for use in adaptive information systems within a R&D project and meeting environment.Keywords: Adaptive Hypermedia, Adaptive System, ContextAwareness, Information Model, Information System, Personalisation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14826800 Modeling and Identification of Hammerstein System by using Triangular Basis Functions
Authors: K. Elleuch, A. Chaari
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This paper deals with modeling and parameter identification of nonlinear systems described by Hammerstein model having Piecewise nonlinear characteristics such as Dead-zone nonlinearity characteristic. The simultaneous use of both an easy decomposition technique and the triangular basis functions leads to a particular form of Hammerstein model. The approximation by using Triangular basis functions for the description of the static nonlinear block conducts to a linear regressor model, so that least squares techniques can be used for the parameter estimation. Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) technique has been applied to separate the coupled parameters. The proposed approach has been efficiently tested on academic examples of simulation.Keywords: Identification, Hammerstein model, Piecewisenonlinear characteristic, Dead-zone nonlinearity, Triangular basisfunctions, Singular Values Decomposition
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19096799 Probabilistic Bhattacharya Based Active Contour Model in Structure Tensor Space
Authors: Hiren Mewada, Suprava Patnaik
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Object identification and segmentation application requires extraction of object in foreground from the background. In this paper the Bhattacharya distance based probabilistic approach is utilized with an active contour model (ACM) to segment an object from the background. In the proposed approach, the Bhattacharya histogram is calculated on non-linear structure tensor space. Based on the histogram, new formulation of active contour model is proposed to segment images. The results are tested on both color and gray images from the Berkeley image database. The experimental results show that the proposed model is applicable to both color and gray images as well as both texture images and natural images. Again in comparing to the Bhattacharya based ACM in ICA space, the proposed model is able to segment multiple object too.
Keywords: Active Contour, Bhattacharya Histogram, Structure tensor, Image segmentation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20426798 A Software of Intrusion Detection Mechanism for Virtual Platforms
Authors: Ying-Chuan Chen, Shuen-Tai Wang
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Security is an interesting and significance issue for popular virtual platforms, such as virtualization cluster and cloud platforms. Virtualization is the powerful technology for cloud computing services, there are a lot of benefits by using virtual machine tools which be called hypervisors, such as it can quickly deploy all kinds of virtual Operating Systems in single platform, able to control all virtual system resources effectively, cost down for system platform deployment, ability of customization, high elasticity and high reliability. However, some important security problems need to take care and resolved in virtual platforms that include terrible viruses, evil programs, illegal operations and intrusion behavior. In this paper, we present useful Intrusion Detection Mechanism (IDM) software that not only can auto to analyze all system-s operations with the accounting journal database, but also is able to monitor the system-s state for virtual platforms.Keywords: security, cluster, cloud, virtualization, virtual machine, virus, intrusion detection
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15296797 Using Radial Basis Function Neural Networks to Calibrate Water Quality Model
Authors: Lihui Ma, Kunlun Xin, Suiqing Liu
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Modern managements of water distribution system (WDS) need water quality models that are able to accurately predict the dynamics of water quality variations within the distribution system environment. Before water quality models can be applied to solve system problems, they should be calibrated. Although former researchers use GA solver to calibrate relative parameters, it is difficult to apply on the large-scale or medium-scale real system for long computational time. In this paper a new method is designed which combines both macro and detailed model to optimize the water quality parameters. This new combinational algorithm uses radial basis function (RBF) metamodeling as a surrogate to be optimized for the purpose of decreasing the times of time-consuming water quality simulation and can realize rapidly the calibration of pipe wall reaction coefficients of chlorine model of large-scaled WDS. After two cases study this method is testified to be more efficient and promising, and deserve to generalize in the future.Keywords: Metamodeling, model calibration, radial basisfunction, water distribution system, water quality model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19986796 Modeling and Simulation of a Hybrid Scooter
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This paper presents a hybrid electric scooter model developed and simulated using Matlab/Simulink. This hybrid scooter modeled has a parallel hybrid structure. The main propulsion units consist of a two stroke internal combustion engine and a hub motor attached to the front wheel of the scooter. The methodology used to optimize the energy and fuel consumption of the hybrid electric scooter is the multi-mode approach. Various case studies were presented to check the model and were compared to the literatures. Results shown that the model developed was feasible and valuable.
Keywords: Hybrid electric scooters, modeling and simulation, hybrid scooter energy management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 33246795 Bifurcations for a FitzHugh-Nagumo Model with Time Delays
Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li
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In this paper, a FitzHugh-Nagumo model with time delays is investigated. The linear stability of the equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation with delay τ is investigated. By applying Nyquist criterion, the length of delay is estimated for which stability continues to hold. Numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical results are illustrated. Finally, main conclusions are given.
Keywords: FitzHugh-Nagumo model, Time delay, Stability, Hopf bifurcation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16776794 Creeping Control Strategy for Direct Shift Gearbox Based on the Investigation of Temperature Variation of the Wet Clutch
Authors: Biao Ma, Jikai Liu, Man Chen, Jianpeng Wu, Liyong Wang, Changsong Zheng
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Proposing an appropriate control strategy is an effective and practical way to address the overheat problems of the wet multi-plate clutch in Direct Shift Gearbox under the long-time creeping condition. To do so, the temperature variation of the wet multi-plate clutch is investigated firstly by establishing a thermal resistance model for the gearbox cooling system. To calculate the generated heat flux and predict the clutch temperature precisely, the friction torque model is optimized by introducing an improved friction coefficient, which is related to the pressure, the relative speed and the temperature. After that, the heat transfer model and the reasonable friction torque model are employed by the vehicle powertrain model to construct a comprehensive co-simulation model for the Direct Shift Gearbox (DSG) vehicle. A creeping control strategy is then proposed and, to evaluate the vehicle performance, the safety temperature (250 ℃) is particularly adopted as an important metric. During the creeping process, the temperature of two clutches is always under the safety value (250 ℃), which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy in avoiding the thermal failures of clutches.
Keywords: Creeping control strategy, direct shift gearbox, temperature variation, wet clutch.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7086793 Dengue Disease Mapping with Standardized Morbidity Ratio and Poisson-gamma Model: An Analysis of Dengue Disease in Perak, Malaysia
Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof
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Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.
Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32726792 Economic Loss due to Ganoderma Disease in Oil Palm
Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho
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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.
Keywords: Ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32066791 Multiagent Systems Simulation
Authors: G. Balakayeva, A. Aktymbayeva
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In this paper, we consider components of discrete event imitating model, implementing a simulation model by using JAVA and performing an input analysis of the data and an output analysis of the simulation results. Was lead development of imitating model of mass service system with n (n≥1) devices of service. On the basis of the developed process of a multithreading simulated the distributed processes with presence of synchronization. Was developed the algorithm of event-oriented simulation, was received results of system functioning with n devices of service.
Keywords: Imitating modeling, Mass service system, Multi agentsystem.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1576