Search results for: Network Packet

Authors: Norbik Bashah, Idris Bharanidharan Shanmugam, Abdul Manan Ahmed

Abstract:

Intrusion Detection Systems are increasingly a key part of systems defense. Various approaches to Intrusion Detection are currently being used, but they are relatively ineffective. Artificial Intelligence plays a driving role in security services. This paper proposes a dynamic model Intelligent Intrusion Detection System, based on specific AI approach for intrusion detection. The techniques that are being investigated includes neural networks and fuzzy logic with network profiling, that uses simple data mining techniques to process the network data. The proposed system is a hybrid system that combines anomaly, misuse and host based detection. Simple Fuzzy rules allow us to construct if-then rules that reflect common ways of describing security attacks. For host based intrusion detection we use neural-networks along with self organizing maps. Suspicious intrusions can be traced back to its original source path and any traffic from that particular source will be redirected back to them in future. Both network traffic and system audit data are used as inputs for both.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection, Network Security, Data mining, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Venugopal Kummamuru

Abstract:

Corporate Governance (CG) is of utmost importance for running a company ethically. It is essential for the growth and success of the corporation. It is intended to increase the accountability of an organization to the larger context of the business environment. The general principles of CG include and are related to Shareholder recognition, Stakeholder interests, and focus on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), Clear Board responsibilities, Ethical behavior, and Business transparency. Network Marketing Organizations (NMOs) focus on marketing through direct-sales using people who are associated with the organization but are not their employees. This paper tries to study the importance of Ethics and CSR in an NMO and suggest a basic guideline for CG in NMO(s). This paper could be used as a basis or starting point for conducting an in-depth research to understand the difference in CG practices between NMO(s) and other organizations and define a standard set of guidelines for CG practice.

Keywords: Corporate governance, corporate responsibility, direct selling, network marketing.

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Authors: Seema Chopra, R. Mitra, Vijay Kumar

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In this paper, a neural network tuned fuzzy controller is proposed for controlling Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) systems. For the convenience of analysis, the structure of MIMO fuzzy controller is divided into single input single-output (SISO) controllers for controlling each degree of freedom. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the system-s dynamics coupling, an appropriate coupling fuzzy controller is incorporated to improve the performance. The simulation analysis on a two-level mass–spring MIMO vibration system is carried out and results show the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy controller. The performance though improved, the computational time and memory used is comparatively higher, because it has four fuzzy reasoning blocks and number may increase in case of other MIMO system. Then a fuzzy neural network is designed from a set of input-output training data to reduce the computing burden during implementation. This control strategy can not only simplify the implementation problem of fuzzy control, but also reduce computational time and consume less memory.

Keywords: Fuzzy Control, Neural Network, MIMO System, Optimization of Membership functions.

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Authors: Akshit Singhal, Xuan Wang, Zhijun Wang, Hao Che, Hong Jiang

Abstract:

Multiple Path Transmission Control Protocols (MPTCPs) allow flows to explore path diversity to improve the throughput, reliability and network resource utilization. However, the existing solutions may discourage users to adopt the solutions in the face of multipath scenario where different paths are charged based on different pricing structures, e.g., WiFi vs. cellular connections, widely available for mobile phones. In this paper, we propose a Hybrid MPTCP (H-MPTCP) with a built-in mechanism to incentivize users to use multiple paths with different pricing structures. In the meantime, H-MPTCP preserves the nice properties enjoyed by the state-of-the-art MPTCP solutions. Extensive real Linux implementation results verify that H-MPTCP can indeed achieve the design objectives.

Keywords: Congestion control, Network Utility Maximization, Multipath TCP, network.

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Authors: Myriam Noureddine

Abstract:

During their activity, all systems must be operational without failures and in this context, the dependability concept is essential avoiding disruption of their function. As computer networks are systems with the same requirements of dependability, this article deals with an analysis of failures for a computer network. The proposed approach integrates specific tools of the plat-form KB3, usually applied in dependability studies of industrial systems. The methodology is supported by a multi-agent system formed by six agents grouped in three meta agents, dealing with two levels. The first level concerns a modeling step through a conceptual agent and a generating agent. The conceptual agent is dedicated to the building of the knowledge base from the system specifications written in the FIGARO language. The generating agent allows producing automatically both the structural model and a dependability model of the system. The second level, the simulation, shows the effects of the failures of the system through a simulation agent. The approach validation is obtained by its application on a specific computer network, giving an analysis of failures through their effects for the considered network.

Keywords: Computer network, dependability, KB3 plat-form, multi-agent system, failure.

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Authors: Thejaswi H. Raya, Vineetha Bettaiah, Heggere S. Ranganath

Abstract:

For over a decade, the Pulse Coupled Neural Network (PCNN) based algorithms have been successfully used in image interpretation applications including image segmentation. There are several versions of the PCNN based image segmentation methods, and the segmentation accuracy of all of them is very sensitive to the values of the network parameters. Most methods treat PCNN parameters like linking coefficient and primary firing threshold as global parameters, and determine them by trial-and-error. The automatic determination of appropriate values for linking coefficient, and primary firing threshold is a challenging problem and deserves further research. This paper presents a method for obtaining global as well as local values for the linking coefficient and the primary firing threshold for neurons directly from the image statistics. Extensive simulation results show that the proposed approach achieves excellent segmentation accuracy comparable to the best accuracy obtainable by trial-and-error for a variety of images.

Keywords: Automatic Selection of PCNN Parameters, Image Segmentation, Neural Networks, Pulse Coupled Neural Network

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Authors: Manal Bouasria, Mohammed-Hichem Benzaama, Valérie Pralong, Yassine El Mendili

Abstract:

Reducing the quantity of cement in cementitious composites can help to reduce the environmental effect of construction materials. Byproducts such as ferronickel slags (FNS), fly ash (FA), and waste as Crepidula fornicata shells (CR) are promising options for cement replacement. In this work, we investigated the relevance of substituting cement with FNS-CR and FA-CR on the mechanical properties of mortar and on the thermal properties of concrete. Foraging intervals ranging from 2 days to 28 days, the mechanical properties are obtained by 3-point bending and compression tests. The chosen mix is used to construct a prototype in order to study the material’s hygrothermal performance. The data collected by the sensors placed on the prototype were utilized to build an artificial neural network.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, cement, circular economy, concrete, byproducts.

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Authors: Hanaa T. El-Madany, Faten H. Fahmy, Ninet M. A. El-Rahman, Hassen T. Dorrah

Abstract:

Renewable energy resources are inexhaustible, clean as compared with conventional resources. Also, it is used to supply regions with no grid, no telephone lines, and often with difficult accessibility by common transport. Satellite earth stations which located in remote areas are the most important application of renewable energy. Neural control is a branch of the general field of intelligent control, which is based on the concept of artificial intelligence. This paper presents the mathematical modeling of satellite earth station power system which is required for simulating the system.Aswan is selected to be the site under consideration because it is a rich region with solar energy. The complete power system is simulated using MATLAB–SIMULINK.An artificial neural network (ANN) based model has been developed for the optimum operation of earth station power system. An ANN is trained using a back propagation with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The best validation performance is obtained for minimum mean square error. The regression between the network output and the corresponding target is equal to 96% which means a high accuracy. Neural network controller architecture gives satisfactory results with small number of neurons, hence better in terms of memory and time are required for NNC implementation. The results indicate that the proposed control unit using ANN can be successfully used for controlling the satellite earth station power system.

Keywords: Satellite, neural network, MATLAB, power system.

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Authors: Obeidat I., Bsoul M., Khasawneh A., Kilani Y.

Abstract:

This paper simulates the ad-hoc mesh network in rural areas, where such networks receive great attention due to their cost, since installing the infrastructure for regular networks in these areas is not possible due to the high cost. The distance between the communicating nodes is the most obstacles that the ad-hoc mesh network will face. For example, in Terranet technology, two nodes can communicate if they are only one kilometer far from each other. However, if the distance between them is more than one kilometer, then each node in the ad-hoc mesh networks has to act as a router that forwards the data it receives to other nodes. In this paper, we try to find the critical number of nodes which makes the network fully connected in a particular area, and then propose a method to enhance the intermediate node to accept to be a router to forward the data from the sender to the receiver. Much work was done on technological changes on peer to peer networks, but the focus of this paper will be on another feature which is to find the minimum number of nodes needed for a particular area to be fully connected and then to enhance the users to switch on their phones and accept to work as a router for other nodes. Our method raises the successful calls to 81.5% out of 100% attempt calls.

Keywords: Adjacency matrix, Ad-hoc mesh network, Connectedness, Terranet technology

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Authors: Hariton N. Costin, Sorin Puscoci, Cristian Rotariu, Bogdan Dionisie, Marinela C. Cimpoesu

Abstract:

TELMES project aims to develop a securized multimedia system devoted to medical consultation teleservices. It will be finalized with a pilot system for a regional telecenters network that connects local telecenters, having as support multimedia platforms. This network will enable the implementation of complex medical teleservices (teleconsulations, telemonitoring, homecare, urgency medicine, etc.) for a broader range of patients and medical professionals, mainly for family doctors and those people living in rural or isolated regions. Thus, a multimedia, scalable network, based on modern IT&C paradigms, will result. It will gather two inter-connected regional telecenters, in Iaşi and Piteşti, Romania, each of them also permitting local connections of hospitals, diagnostic and treatment centers, as well as local networks of family doctors, patients, even educational entities. As communications infrastructure, we aim to develop a combined fixmobile- internet (broadband) links. Other possible communication environments will be GSM/GPRS/3G and radio waves. The electrocardiogram (ECG) acquisition, internet transmission and local analysis, using embedded technologies, was already successfully done for patients- telemonitoring.

Keywords: Healthcare, telemedicine, telemonitoring, ECG analysis.

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Authors: Laurent Enel, Franck Guillem

Abstract:

This paper considers the benefits gained by using an efficient quality of service management such as DiffServ technique to improve the performance of military communications. Low delay and no blockage must be achieved especially for real time tactical data. All traffic flows generated by different applications do not need same bandwidth, same latency, same error ratio and this scalable technique of packet management based on priority levels is analysed. End to end architectures supporting various traffic flows and including lowbandwidth and high-delay HF or SHF military links as well as unprotected Internet sub domains are studied. A tuning of Diffserv parameters is proposed in accordance with different loads of various traffic and different operational situations.

Keywords: Military data networks, Quality of service, Tacticalsystems.

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Authors: Sameh H. Ghwanmeh

Abstract:

Discovery schools in Jordan are connected in one flat ATM bridge network. All Schools connected to the network will hear broadcast traffic. High percentage of unwanted traffic such as broadcast, consumes the bandwidth between schools and QRC. Routers in QRC have high CPU utilization. The number of connections on the router is very high, and may exceed recommend manufacturing specifications. One way to minimize number of connections to the routers in QRC, and minimize broadcast traffic is to use PPPoE. In this study, a PPPoE solution has been presented which shows high performance for the clients when accessing the school server resources. Despite the large number of the discovery schools at MoE, the experimental results show that the PPPoE solution is able to yield a satisfactory performance for each client at the school and noticeably reduce the traffic broadcast to the QRC.

Keywords: Education, networking, performance, e-content.

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Authors: P. Aragonés-Beltrán, F. Chaparro-González, J. P. Pastor Ferrando, M. García-Melón

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In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is applied to the selection of photovoltaic (PV) solar power projects. These projects follow a long management and execution process from plant site selection to plant start-up. As a consequence, there are many risks of time delays and even of project stoppage. In the case study presented in this paper a top manager of an important Spanish company that operates in the power market has to decide on the best PV project (from four alternative projects) to invest based on risk minimization. The manager identified 50 project execution delay and/or stoppage risks. The influences among elements of the network (groups of risks and alternatives) were identified and analyzed using the ANP multicriteria decision analysis method. After analyzing the results the main conclusion is that the network model can manage all the information of the real-world problem and thus it is a decision analysis model recommended by the authors. The strengths and weaknesses ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also described in the paper.

Keywords: Multicriteria decision analysis, Analytic Network Process, Photovoltaic solar power projects.

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Authors: Gelareh Mohammadi, Parisa Shoushtari, Behnam Molaee Ardekani, Mohammad B. Shamsollahi

Abstract:

A direct connection between ElectroEncephaloGram (EEG) and the genetic information of individuals has been investigated by neurophysiologists and psychiatrists since 1960-s; and it opens a new research area in the science. This paper focuses on the person identification based on feature extracted from the EEG which can show a direct connection between EEG and the genetic information of subjects. In this work the full EO EEG signal of healthy individuals are estimated by an autoregressive (AR) model and the AR parameters are extracted as features. Here for feature vector constitution, two methods have been proposed; in the first method the extracted parameters of each channel are used as a feature vector in the classification step which employs a competitive neural network and in the second method a combination of different channel parameters are used as a feature vector. Correct classification scores at the range of 80% to 100% reveal the potential of our approach for person classification/identification and are in agreement to the previous researches showing evidence that the EEG signal carries genetic information. The novelty of this work is in the combination of AR parameters and the network type (competitive network) that we have used. A comparison between the first and the second approach imply preference of the second one.

Keywords: Person Identification, Autoregressive Model, EEG, Neural Network

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Authors: Abiodun M. Aibinu, Momoh J. E. Salami, Amir A. Shafie, Athaur Rahman Najeeb

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Autoregressive Moving average (ARMA) is a parametric based method of signal representation. It is suitable for problems in which the signal can be modeled by explicit known source functions with a few adjustable parameters. Various methods have been suggested for the coefficients determination among which are Prony, Pade, Autocorrelation, Covariance and most recently, the use of Artificial Neural Network technique. In this paper, the method of using Artificial Neural network (ANN) technique is compared with some known and widely acceptable techniques. The comparisons is entirely based on the value of the coefficients obtained. Result obtained shows that the use of ANN also gives accurate in computing the coefficients of an ARMA system.

Keywords: Autoregressive moving average, coefficients, back propagation, model parameters, neural network, weight.

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Authors: Inchae Park, Byungun Yoon

Abstract:

As open innovation has received increasingly attention in the management of innovation, the importance of identifying potential partnership is increasing. This paper suggests a methodology to identify the interested parties as one of Innovation intermediaries to enable open innovation with patent network. To implement the methodology, multi-stage patent citation analysis such as bibliographic coupling and information visualization method such as keyword vector mapping are utilized. This paper has contribution in that it can present meaningful collaboration keywords to identified potential partners in network since not only citation information but also patent textual information is used.

Keywords: Open innovation, partner selection, bibliographic coupling, Keyword vector mapping, patent network.

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Authors: Yacine Challal, Abdelmadjid Bouabdallah

Abstract:

The lack of security obstructs a large scale de- ployment of the multicast communication model. There- fore, a host of research works have been achieved in order to deal with several issues relating to securing the multicast, such as confidentiality, authentication, non-repudiation, in- tegrity and access control. Many applications require au- thenticating the source of the received traffic, such as broadcasting stock quotes and videoconferencing and hence source authentication is a required component in the whole multicast security architecture. In this paper, we propose a new and efficient source au- thentication protocol which guarantees non-repudiation for multicast flows, and tolerates packet loss. We have simu- lated our protocol using NS-2, and the simulation results show that the protocol allows to achieve improvements over protocols fitting into the same category.

Keywords: Source Authentication, Non-repudiation, Multicast Security.

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Authors: Safaa R. Amer

Abstract:

Missing data yields many analysis challenges. In case of complex survey design, in addition to dealing with missing data, researchers need to account for the sampling design to achieve useful inferences. Methods for incorporating sampling weights in neural network imputation were investigated to account for complex survey designs. An estimate of variance to account for the imputation uncertainty as well as the sampling design using neural networks will be provided. A simulation study was conducted to compare estimation results based on complete case analysis, multiple imputation using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and neural network imputation. Furthermore, a public-use dataset was used as an example to illustrate neural networks imputation under a complex survey design

Keywords: Complex survey, estimate, imputation, neural networks, variance.

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Authors: Mohammad Saleh Vahdatpour, Yanqing Zhang

Abstract:

Understanding the neural mechanisms underlying motion detection in the human visual system has long been a fascinating challenge in neuroscience and artificial intelligence. This paper presents a spiking neural network model inspired by the processing of motion information in the primate visual system, particularly focusing on the Middle Temporal (MT) area. In our study, we propose a multi-layer spiking neural network model to perform motion detection tasks, leveraging the idea that synaptic delays in neuronal communication are pivotal in motion perception. Synaptic delay, determined by factors like axon length and myelin insulation, affects the temporal order of input spikes, thereby encoding motion direction and speed. Overall, our spiking neural network model demonstrates the feasibility of capturing motion detection principles observed in the primate visual system. The combination of synaptic delays, learning mechanisms, and shared weights and delays in SMD provides a promising framework for motion perception in artificial systems, with potential applications in computer vision and robotics.

Keywords: Neural networks, motion detection, signature detection, convolutional neural network.

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Authors: A. Abid, F. M. Abbou, H. T. Ewe

Abstract:

Optical Bursts Switching (OBS) is a relatively new optical switching paradigm. Contention and burst loss in OBS networks are major concerns. To resolve contentions, an interesting alternative to discarding the entire data burst is to partially drop the burst. Partial burst dropping is based on burst segmentation concept that its implementation is constrained by some technical challenges, besides the complexity added to the algorithms and protocols on both edge and core nodes. In this paper, the burst segmentation concept is investigated, and an implementation scheme is proposed and evaluated. An appropriate dropping policy that effectively manages the size of the segmented data bursts is presented. The dropping policy is further supported by a new control packet format that provides constant transmission overhead.

Keywords: Burst length, Burst Segmentation, Optical BurstSwitching.

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Authors: P. Sowa

Abstract:

The new idea of analyze of power system failure with use of artificial neural network is proposed. An analysis of the possibility of simulating phenomena accompanying system faults and restitution is described. It was indicated that the universal model for the simulation of phenomena in whole analyzed range does not exist. The main classic method of search of optimal structure and parameter identification are described shortly. The example with results of calculation is shown.

Keywords: Dynamic equivalents, Network reduction, Neural networks, Power system analysis.

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Authors: Nahid Ghasemi, Mohammad Goodarzi, Morteza Khosravi

Abstract:

Simultaneous determination of multicomponents of phenol, resorcinol and catechol with a chemometric technique a PCranking artificial neural network (PCranking-ANN) algorithm is reported in this study. Based on the data correlation coefficient method, 3 representative PCs are selected from the scores of original UV spectral data (35 PCs) as the original input patterns for ANN to build a neural network model. The results obtained by iterating 8000 .The RMSEP for phenol, resorcinol and catechol with PCranking- ANN were 0.6680, 0.0766 and 0.1033, respectively. Calibration matrices were 0.50-21.0, 0.50-15.1 and 0.50-20.0 μg ml-1 for phenol, resorcinol and catechol, respectively. The proposed method was successfully applied for the determination of phenol, resorcinol and catechol in synthetic and water samples.

Keywords: Phenol, Resorcinol, Catechol, Principal componentrankingArtificial Neural Network, Chemometrics.

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Authors: Ho-Ting Wu, Min-Hua Yang, Kai-Wei Ke, Lei Yan

Abstract:

The quality-of-service (QoS) support for wireless LANs has been a hot research topic during the past few years. In this paper, two QoS provisioning mechanisms are proposed for the employment in 802.11e EDCA MAC scheme. First, the proposed call admission control mechanism can not only guarantee the QoS for the higher priority existing connections but also provide the minimum reserved bandwidth for traffic flows with lower priority. In addition, the adaptive contention window adjustment mechanism can adjust the maximum and minimum contention window size dynamically according to the existing connection number of each AC. The collision probability as well as the packet delay will thus be reduced effectively. Performance results via simulations have revealed the enhanced QoS property achieved by employing these two mechanisms.

Keywords: 802.11e, admission control, contention window, EDCA

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Authors: May Paing Paing Zaw, Su Myat Marlar Soe

Abstract:

Network Management Systems have played a great important role in information systems. Management is very important and essential in any fields. There are many managements such as configuration management, fault management, performance management, security management, accounting management and etc. Among them, configuration, fault and security management is more important than others. Because these are essential and useful in any fields. Configuration management is to monitor and maintain the whole system or LAN. Fault management is to detect and troubleshoot the system. Security management is to control the whole system. This paper intends to increase the network management functionalities including configuration management, fault management and security management. In configuration management system, this paper specially can support the USB ports and devices to detect and read devices configuration and solve to detect hardware port and software ports. In security management system, this paper can provide the security feature for the user account setting and user management and proxy server feature. And all of the history of the security such as user account and proxy server history are kept in the java standard serializable file. So the user can view the history of the security and proxy server anytime. If the user uses this system, the user can ping the clients from the network and the user can view the result of the message in fault management system. And this system also provides to check the network card and can show the NIC card setting. This system is used RMI (Remote Method Invocation) and JNI (Java Native Interface) technology. This paper is to implement the client/server network management system using Java 2 Standard Edition (J2SE). This system can provide more than 10 clients. And then this paper intends to show data or message structure of client/server and how to work using TCP/IP protocol.

Keywords: TCP/ IP based client server application

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Kengo Nagatomo, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

This paper deals with an on-line identification method of continuous-time Hammerstein systems by using the radial basis function (RBF) networks and immune algorithm (IA). An unknown nonlinear static part to be estimated is approximately represented by the RBF network. The IA is efficiently combined with the recursive least-squares (RLS) method. The objective function for the identification is regarded as the antigen. The candidates of the RBF parameters such as the centers and widths are coded into binary bit strings as the antibodies and searched by the IA. On the other hand, the candidates of both the weighting parameters of the RBF network and the system parameters of the linear dynamic part are updated by the RLS method. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Continuous-time System, Hammerstein System, OnlineIdentification, Immune Algorithm, RBF network.

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Authors: Rajkumar Samanta, Abhishek Pal

Abstract:

The demand of high quality services has fueled dimensional research and development in wireless communications and networking. As a result, different wireless technologies like Wireless LAN, CDMA, GSM, UMTS, MANET, Bluetooth and satellite networks etc. have emerged in the last two decades. Future networks capable of carrying multimedia traffic need IP convergence, portability, seamless roaming and scalability among the existing networking technologies without changing the core part of the existing communications networks. To fulfill these goals, the present networking systems are required to work in cooperation to ensure technological independence, seamless roaming, high security and authentication, guaranteed Quality of Services (QoS). In this paper, a conceptual framework for a cooperative network (CN) is proposed for integration of heterogeneous existing networks to meet out the requirements of the next generation wireless networks.

Keywords: Cooperative Network, Wireless Network, Integration.

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Authors: A. M. El-Zonkoly

Abstract:

In this paper, based on steady-state models of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices, the sizing of static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) controllers in transmission network is formed as an optimization problem. The objective of this problem is to reduce the transmission losses in the network. The optimization problem is solved using particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The Newton-Raphson load flow algorithm is modified to consider the insertion of the SSSC devices in the network. A numerical example, illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, is introduced. In addition, a novel model of a 3- phase voltage source converter (VSC) that is suitable for series connected FACTS a controller is introduced. The model is verified by simulation using Power System Blockset (PSB) and Simulink software.

Keywords: FACTS, Modeling, PSO, SSSC, Transmission lossreduction.

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Authors: Chia-Ling Chang, Chung-Sheng Liao

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the discussion over the parameter of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Sensitivity analysis is applied to assess the effect of the parameters of ANN on the prediction of turbidity of raw water in the water treatment plant. The result shows that transfer function of hidden layer is a critical parameter of ANN. When the transfer function changes, the reliability of prediction of water turbidity is greatly different. Moreover, the estimated water turbidity is less sensitive to training times and learning velocity than the number of neurons in the hidden layer. Therefore, it is important to select an appropriate transfer function and suitable number of neurons in the hidden layer in the process of parameter training and validation.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), sensitivity analysis, turbidity.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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Authors: Faisal Al Yahmadi, Muhammad R. Ahmed

Abstract:

Electric power is a fundamental necessity in the 21^st century. Consequently, any break in electric power is probably going to affect the general activity. To make the power supply smooth and efficient, a smart grid network is introduced which uses communication technology. In any communication network, security is essential. It has been observed from several recent incidents that adversary causes an interruption to the operation of networks. In order to resolve the issues, it is vital to understand the threats and vulnerabilities associated with the smart grid networks. In this paper, we have investigated the threats and vulnerabilities in Smart Grid Networks (SGN) and the few solutions in the literature. Proposed solutions showed developments in electricity theft countermeasures, Denial of services attacks (DoS) and malicious injection attacks detection model, as well as malicious nodes detection using watchdog like techniques and other solutions.

Keywords: Smart grid network, security, threats, vulnerabilities.

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