Search results for: nonlinear exponential model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8192

Search results for: nonlinear exponential model

7472 Influence of Parameters of Modeling and Data Distribution for Optimal Condition on Locally Weighted Projection Regression Method

Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

Abstract:

Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: Local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, Online training method.

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7471 A Theoretical Hypothesis on Ferris Wheel Model of University Social Responsibility

Authors: Le Kang

Abstract:

According to the nature of the university, as a free and responsible academic community, USR is based on a different foundation —academic responsibility, so the Pyramid and the IC Model of CSR could not fully explain the most distinguished feature of USR. This paper sought to put forward a new model— Ferris Wheel Model, to illustrate the nature of USR and the process of achievement. The Ferris Wheel Model of USR shows the university creates a balanced, fairness and neutrality systemic structure to afford social responsibilities; that makes the organization could obtain a synergistic effect to achieve more extensive interests of stakeholders and wider social responsibilities.

Keywords: USR, Achievement model, Ferris wheel model.

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7470 Numerical Approximation to the Performance of CUSUM Charts for EMA (1) Process

Authors: K. Petcharat, Y. Areepong, S. Sukparungsri, G. Mititelu

Abstract:

These paper, we approximate the average run length (ARL) for CUSUM chart when observation are an exponential first order moving average sequence (EMA1). We used Gauss-Legendre numerical scheme for integral equations (IE) method for approximate ARL0 and ARL1, where ARL in control and out of control, respectively. We compared the results from IE method and exact solution such that the two methods perform good agreement.

Keywords: Cumulative Sum Chart, Moving Average Observation, Average Run Length, Numerical Approximations.

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7469 All-or-None Principle and Weakness of Hodgkin-Huxley Mathematical Model

Authors: S. A. Sadegh Zadeh, C. Kambhampati

Abstract:

Mathematical and computational modellings are the necessary tools for reviewing, analysing, and predicting processes and events in the wide spectrum range of scientific fields. Therefore, in a field as rapidly developing as neuroscience, the combination of these two modellings can have a significant role in helping to guide the direction the field takes. The paper combined mathematical and computational modelling to prove a weakness in a very precious model in neuroscience. This paper is intended to analyse all-or-none principle in Hodgkin-Huxley mathematical model. By implementation the computational model of Hodgkin-Huxley model and applying the concept of all-or-none principle, an investigation on this mathematical model has been performed. The results clearly showed that the mathematical model of Hodgkin-Huxley does not observe this fundamental law in neurophysiology to generating action potentials. This study shows that further mathematical studies on the Hodgkin-Huxley model are needed in order to create a model without this weakness.

Keywords: All-or-none, computational modelling, mathematical model, transmembrane voltage, action potential.

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7468 Zero Truncated Strict Arcsine Model

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero truncated model is usually used in modeling count data without zero. It is the opposite of zero inflated model. Zero truncated Poisson and zero truncated negative binomial models are discussed and used by some researchers in analyzing the abundance of rare species and hospital stay. Zero truncated models are used as the base in developing hurdle models. In this study, we developed a new model, the zero truncated strict arcsine model, which can be used as an alternative model in modeling count data without zero and with extra variation. Two simulated and one real life data sets are used and fitted into this developed model. The results show that the model provides a good fit to the data. Maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters.

Keywords: Hurdle models, maximum likelihood estimation method, positive count data.

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7467 Mechanical Characteristics on Fatigue Crack Propagation in Aluminium Plate

Authors: A. Chellil, A. Nour, S. Lecheb, H. Mechakra, L. Addar, H. Kebir

Abstract:

This paper present a mechanical characteristics on fatigue crack propagation in Aluminium Plate based on strain and stress distribution using the abaqus software. The changes in shear strain and stress distribution during the fatigue cycle with crack growth is identified. In progressive crack in the strain distribution and the stress is increase in the critical zone. Numerical Modal analysis of the model developed, prove that the Eigen frequencies of aluminium plate were decreased after cracking, and this reduce is nonlinear. These results can provide a reference for analysts and designers of aluminium alloys in aeronautical systems.

Therefore, the modal analysis is an important factor for monitoring the aeronautic structures.

Keywords: Aluminium alloys, plate, crack, failure.

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7466 Batteryless DCM Boost Converter for Kinetic Energy Harvesting Applications

Authors: Andrés Gomez-Casseres, Rubén Contreras

Abstract:

In this paper, a bidirectional boost converter operated in Discontinuous Conduction Mode (DCM) is presented as a suitable power conditioning circuit for tuning of kinetic energy harvesters without the need of a battery. A nonlinear control scheme, composed by two linear controllers, is used to control the average value of the input current, enabling the synthesization of complex loads. The converter, along with the control system, is validated through SPICE simulations using the LTspice tool. The converter model and the controller transfer functions are derived. From the simulation results, it was found that the input current distortion increases with the introduced phase shift and that, such distortion, is almost entirely present at the zero-crossing point of the input voltage.

Keywords: Average current control, boost converter, electrical tuning, energy harvesting.

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7465 Asynchronous Microcontroller Simulation Model in VHDL

Authors: M. Kovac

Abstract:

This article describes design of the 8-bit asynchronous microcontroller simulation model in VHDL. The model is created in ISE Foundation design tool and simulated in Modelsim tool. This model is a simple application example of asynchronous systems designed in synchronous design tools. The design process of creating asynchronous system with 4-phase bundled-data protocol and with matching delays is described in the article. The model is described in gate-level abstraction. The simulation waveform of the functional construction is the result of this article. Described construction covers only the simulation model. The next step would be creating synthesizable model to FPGA.

Keywords: Asynchronous, Microcontroller, VHDL, FPGA.

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7464 A General Model for Acquiring Knowledge

Authors: GuoQiang Peng, Yi Sun

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the work in [1], we further give a general model for acquiring knowledge, which first focuses on the research of how and when things involved in problems are made then describes the goals, the energy and the time to give an optimum model to decide how many related things are supposed to be involved in. Finally, we acquire knowledge from this model in which there are the attributes, actions and connections of the things involved at the time when they are born and the time in their life. This model not only improves AI theories, but also surely brings the effectiveness and accuracy for AI system because systems are given more knowledge when reasoning or computing is used to bring about results.

Keywords: Time, knowledge, model.

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7463 Self-Organization of Radiation Defects: Temporal Dissipative Structures

Authors: Pavlo Selyshchev

Abstract:

A theoretical approach to radiation damage evolution is developed. Stable temporal behavior taking place in solids under irradiation are examined as phenomena of self-organization in nonequilibrium systems. Experimental effects of temporal self-organization in solids under irradiation are reviewed. Their essential common properties and features are highlighted and analyzed. Dynamical model to describe development of self-oscillation of density of point defects under stationary irradiation is proposed. The emphasis is the nonlinear couplings between rate of annealing and density of defects that determine the kind and parameters of an arising self-oscillation. The field of parameters (defect generation rate and environment temperature) at which self-oscillations develop is found. Bifurcation curve and self-oscillation period near it is obtained.

Keywords: Irradiation, Point Defects, Solids, Temporal Selforganization.

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7462 Reciprocating Equipment Piston Rod Dynamic Elastic-Plastic Deformation Analysis

Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Analysis of reciprocating equipment piston rod leads to nonlinear elastic-plastic deformation analysis of rod with initial imperfection under axial dynamic load. In this paper a new and effective model and analytical formulations are presented to evaluate dynamic deformation and elastic-plastic stresses of reciprocating machine piston rod. This new method has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, elastic-plastic deformation and dynamic effects. Proposed method can be used for evaluation of piston rod performance for various reciprocating machines under different operation situations. Rod load curves and maximum allowable rod load are calculated with presented method for a refinery type reciprocating compressor. Useful recommendations and guidelines for rod load, rod load reversal and rod drop monitoring are also addressed.

Keywords: Deformation, Reciprocating Equipment, Rod.

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7461 Nonlinear Control of a Continuous Bioreactor Based on Cell Population Model

Authors: Mahdi Sharifian, Mohammad Ali Fanaei

Abstract:

Saccharomyces cerevisiae (baker-s yeast) can exhibit sustained oscillations during the operation in a continuous bioreactor that adversely affects its stability and productivity. Because of heterogeneous nature of cell populations, the cell population balance models can be used to capture the dynamic behavior of such cultures. In this paper an unstructured, segregated model is used which is based on population balance equation(PBE) and then in order to simulation, the 4th order Rung-Kutta is used for time dimension and three methods, finite difference, orthogonal collocation on finite elements and Galerkin finite element are used for discretization of the cell mass domain. The results indicate that the orthogonal collocation on finite element not only is able to predict the oscillating behavior of the cell culture but also needs much little time for calculations. Therefore this method is preferred in comparison with other methods. In the next step two controllers, a globally linearizing control (GLC) and a conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller are designed for controlling the total cell mass per unit volume, and performances of these controllers are compared through simulation. The results show that although the PI controller has simpler structure, the GLC has better performance.

Keywords: Bioreactor, cell population balance, finite difference, orthogonal collocation on finite elements, Galerkin finite element, feedback linearization, PI controller.

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7460 Seismic Behavior Evaluation of Semi-Rigid Steel Frames with Knee Bracing by Modal Pushover Analysis (MPA)

Authors: Farzan Namvari, Panam Zarfam

Abstract:

Nowadays use of a new structural bracing system called 'Knee Bracing System' have taken the specialists attention too much. On the other hand nonlinear static analysis procedures in estimate structures performance in earthquake time have taken attention too much. One of these procedure is modal pushover analysis (MPA) procedure. The accuracy of MPA procedure for simple steel moment resisting frame has been verified and considered in Chintanapakdee and Chopra-s article in 2003. Since the accuracy of MPA procedure has not verified for semi-rigid steel frames with knee bracing, we are going to get through with this matter in this study. For this purpose, the selected structures are four frames with different heights, 5 to 20 stories, will be designed according to AISC criteria. Then MPA procedure is used for the same frames with different rigidity percentiles of connections. The results of seismic responses are compared with dynamic nonlinear response history analysis as exact procedure and accuracy of MPA procedure is evaluated. It seems that MPA procedure accuracy will come down by reduction of the rigidity percentiles of semi-rigid connections.

Keywords: Knee Bracing, Modal Pushover Analysis, SeismicBehavior, Semi-Rigid Connections.

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7459 Design of the Mathematical Model of the Respiratory System Using Electro-acoustic Analogy

Authors: M. Rozanek, K. Roubik

Abstract:

The article deals with development, design and implementation of a mathematical model of the human respiratory system. The model is designed in order to simulate distribution of important intrapulmonary parameters along the bronchial tree such as pressure amplitude, tidal volume and effect of regional mechanical lung properties upon the efficiency of various ventilatory techniques. Therefore exact agreement of the model structure with the lung anatomical structure is required. The model is based on the lung morphology and electro-acoustic analogy is used to design the model.

Keywords: Model of the respiratory system, total lung impedance, intrapulmonary parameters.

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7458 Data-driven Multiscale Tsallis Complexity: Application to EEG Analysis

Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

This work proposes a data-driven multiscale based quantitative measures to reveal the underlying complexity of electroencephalogram (EEG), applying to a rodent model of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury and recovery. Motivated by that real EEG recording is nonlinear and non-stationary over different frequencies or scales, there is a need of more suitable approach over the conventional single scale based tools for analyzing the EEG data. Here, we present a new framework of complexity measures considering changing dynamics over multiple oscillatory scales. The proposed multiscale complexity is obtained by calculating entropies of the probability distributions of the intrinsic mode functions extracted by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) of EEG. To quantify EEG recording of a rat model of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury following cardiac arrest, the multiscale version of Tsallis entropy is examined. To validate the proposed complexity measure, actual EEG recordings from rats (n=9) experiencing 7 min cardiac arrest followed by resuscitation were analyzed. Experimental results demonstrate that the use of the multiscale Tsallis entropy leads to better discrimination of the injury levels and improved correlations with the neurological deficit evaluation after 72 hours after cardiac arrest, thus suggesting an effective metric as a prognostic tool.

Keywords: Electroencephalogram (EEG), multiscale complexity, empirical mode decomposition, Tsallis entropy.

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7457 Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

 

Keywords: Ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors.

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7456 Hybrid Markov Game Controller Design Algorithms for Nonlinear Systems

Authors: R. Sharma, M. Gopal

Abstract:

Markov games can be effectively used to design controllers for nonlinear systems. The paper presents two novel controller design algorithms by incorporating ideas from gametheory literature that address safety and consistency issues of the 'learned' control strategy. A more widely used approach for controller design is the H∞ optimal control, which suffers from high computational demand and at times, may be infeasible. We generate an optimal control policy for the agent (controller) via a simple Linear Program enabling the controller to learn about the unknown environment. The controller is facing an unknown environment and in our formulation this environment corresponds to the behavior rules of the noise modeled as the opponent. Proposed approaches aim to achieve 'safe-consistent' and 'safe-universally consistent' controller behavior by hybridizing 'min-max', 'fictitious play' and 'cautious fictitious play' approaches drawn from game theory. We empirically evaluate the approaches on a simulated Inverted Pendulum swing-up task and compare its performance against standard Q learning.

Keywords: Fictitious Play, Cautious Fictitious Play, InvertedPendulum, Controller, Markov Games, Mobile Robot.

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7455 A Hydro-Mechanical Model for Unsaturated Soils

Authors: A. Uchaipichat

Abstract:

The hydro-mechanical model for unsaturated soils has been presented based on the effective stress principle taking into account effects of drying-wetting process. The elasto-plastic constitutive equations for stress-strain relations of the soil skeleton have been established. A plasticity model is modified from modified Cam-Clay model. The hardening rule has been established by considering the isotropic consolidation paths. The effect of dryingwetting process is introduced through the ¤ç parameter. All model coefficients are identified in terms of measurable parameters. The simulations from the proposed model are compared with the experimental results. The model calibration was performed to extract the model parameter from the experimental results. Good agreement between the results predicted using proposed model and the experimental results was obtained.

Keywords: Drying-wetting process, Effective stress, Elastoplasticmodel, Unsaturated soils

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7454 Combined Effect of Heat Stimulation and Delay Addition of Superplasticizer with Slag on Fresh and Hardened Property of Mortar

Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

Abstract:

The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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7453 Numerical Solution of a Laminar Viscous Flow Boundary Layer Equation Using Uniform Haar Wavelet Quasi-linearization Method

Authors: Harpreet Kaur, Vinod Mishra, R. C. Mittal

Abstract:

In this paper, we have proposed a Haar wavelet quasilinearization method to solve the well known Blasius equation. The method is based on the uniform Haar wavelet operational matrix defined over the interval [0, 1]. In this method, we have proposed the transformation for converting the problem on a fixed computational domain. The Blasius equation arises in the various boundary layer problems of hydrodynamics and in fluid mechanics of laminar viscous flows. Quasi-linearization is iterative process but our proposed technique gives excellent numerical results with quasilinearization for solving nonlinear differential equations without any iteration on selecting collocation points by Haar wavelets. We have solved Blasius equation for 1≤α ≤ 2 and the numerical results are compared with the available results in literature. Finally, we conclude that proposed method is a promising tool for solving the well known nonlinear Blasius equation.

Keywords: Boundary layer Blasius equation, collocation points, quasi-linearization process, uniform haar wavelets.

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7452 Development of a RAM Simulation Model for Acid Gas Removal System

Authors: Ainul Akmar Mokhtar, Masdi Muhammad, Hilmi Hussin, Mohd Amin Abdul Majid

Abstract:

A reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) model has been built for acid gas removal plant for system analysis that will play an important role in any process modifications, if required, for achieving its optimum performance. Due to the complexity of the plant, the model was based on a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) with a Monte Carlo simulation engine. The model has been validated against actual plant data as well as local expert opinions, resulting in an acceptable simulation model. The results from the model showed that the operation and maintenance can be further improved, resulting in reduction of the annual production loss.

Keywords: Acid gas removal plant, RAM model, Reliabilityblock diagram

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7451 Mining Multicity Urban Data for Sustainable Population Relocation

Authors: Xu Du, Aparna S. Varde

Abstract:

In this research, we propose to conduct diagnostic and predictive analysis about the key factors and consequences of urban population relocation. To achieve this goal, urban simulation models extract the urban development trends as land use change patterns from a variety of data sources. The results are treated as part of urban big data with other information such as population change and economic conditions. Multiple data mining methods are deployed on this data to analyze nonlinear relationships between parameters. The result determines the driving force of population relocation with respect to urban sprawl and urban sustainability and their related parameters. This work sets the stage for developing a comprehensive urban simulation model for catering to specific questions by targeted users. It contributes towards achieving sustainability as a whole.

Keywords: Data Mining, Environmental Modeling, Sustainability, Urban Planning.

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7450 Fuzzy Estimation of Parameters in Statistical Models

Authors: A. Falsafain, S. M. Taheri, M. Mashinchi

Abstract:

Using a set of confidence intervals, we develop a common approach, to construct a fuzzy set as an estimator for unknown parameters in statistical models. We investigate a method to derive the explicit and unique membership function of such fuzzy estimators. The proposed method has been used to derive the fuzzy estimators of the parameters of a Normal distribution and some functions of parameters of two Normal distributions, as well as the parameters of the Exponential and Poisson distributions.

Keywords: Confidence interval. Fuzzy number. Fuzzy estimation.

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7449 A Generator from Cascade Markov Model for Packet Loss and Subsequent Bit Error Description

Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Viliam Hirner, Michal Martinovič, Kvetoslava Kotuliaková

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel error model for packet loss and subsequent error description. The proposed model simulates the error performance of wireless communication link. The model is designed as two independent Markov chains, where the first one is used for packet generation and the second one generates correctly and incorrectly transmitted bits for received packets from the first chain. The statistical analyses of real communication on the wireless link are used for determination of model-s parameters. Using the obtained parameters and the implementation of the generator, we collected generated traffic. The obtained results generated by proposed model are compared with the real data collection.

Keywords: Wireless channel, error model, Markov chain, Elliot model, Gilbert model, generator, IEEE 802.11.

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7448 The Effect of Frame Geometry on the Seismic Response of Self-Centering Concentrically- Braced Frames

Authors: David A. Roke, M. R. Hasan

Abstract:

Conventional concentrically-braced frame (CBF) systems have limited drift capacity before brace buckling and related damage leads to deterioration in strength and stiffness. Self-centering concentrically-braced frame (SC-CBF) systems have been developed to increase drift capacity prior to initiation of damage and minimize residual drift. SC-CBFs differ from conventional CBFs in that the SC-CBF columns are designed to uplift from the foundation at a specified level of lateral loading, initiating a rigid-body rotation (rocking) of the frame. Vertically-aligned post-tensioning bars resist uplift and provide a restoring force to return the SC-CBF columns to the foundation (self-centering the system). This paper presents a parametric study of different prototype buildings using SC-CBFs. The bay widths of the SC-CBFs have been varied in these buildings to study different geometries. Nonlinear numerical analyses of the different SC-CBFs are presented to illustrate the effect of frame geometry on the behavior and dynamic response of the SC-CBF system.

Keywords: Earthquake resistant structures, nonlinear analysis, seismic analysis, self-centering structural systems.

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7447 A Formulation of the Latent Class Vector Model for Pairwise Data

Authors: Tomoya Okubo, Kuninori Nakamura, Shin-ichi Mayekawa

Abstract:

In this research, a latent class vector model for pairwise data is formulated. As compared to the basic vector model, this model yields consistent estimates of the parameters since the number of parameters to be estimated does not increase with the number of subjects. The result of the analysis reveals that the model was stable and could classify each subject to the latent classes representing the typical scales used by these subjects.

Keywords: finite mixture models, latent class analysis, Thrustone's paired comparison method, vector model

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7446 A Constitutive Model for Time-Dependent Behavior of Clay

Authors: T. N. Mac, B. Shahbodaghkhan, N. Khalili

Abstract:

A new elastic-viscoplastic (EVP) constitutive model is proposed for the analysis of time-dependent behavior of clay. The proposed model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and the concept of viscoplastic consistency framework to establish continuous transition from plasticity to rate dependent viscoplasticity. Unlike the overstress based models, this model will meet the consistency condition in formulating the constitutive equation for EVP model. The procedure of deriving the constitutive relationship is also presented. Simulation results and comparisons with experimental data are then presented to demonstrate the performance of the model.

Keywords: Bounding surface, consistency theory, constitutive model, viscosity.

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7445 An Investigation on Overstrength Factor (Ω) of Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Turkish Earthquake Draft Code (TEC-2016)

Authors: M. Hakan Arslan, I. Hakkı Erkan

Abstract:

Overstrength factor is an important parameter of load reduction factor. In this research, the overstrength factor (Ω) of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings and the parameters of Ω in TEC-2016 draft version have been explored. For this aim, 48 RC buildings have been modeled according to the current seismic code TEC-2007 and Turkish Building Code-500-2000 criteria. After modelling step, nonlinear static pushover analyses have been applied to these buildings by using TEC-2007 Section 7. After the nonlinear pushover analyses, capacity curves (lateral load-lateral top displacement curves) have been plotted for 48 RC buildings. Using capacity curves, overstrength factors (Ω) have been derived for each building. The obtained overstrength factor (Ω) values have been compared with TEC-2016 values for related building types, and the results have been interpreted. According to the obtained values from the study, overstrength factor (Ω) given in TEC-2016 draft code is found quite suitable.

Keywords: Reinforced concrete buildings, overstrength factor, earthquake, static pushover analysis.

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7444 Using Fuzzy Controller in Induction Motor Speed Control with Constant Flux

Authors: Hassan Baghgar Bostan Abad, Ali Yazdian Varjani, Taheri Asghar

Abstract:

Variable speed drives are growing and varying. Drives expanse depend on progress in different part of science like power system, microelectronic, control methods, and so on. Artificial intelligent contains hard computation and soft computation. Artificial intelligent has found high application in most nonlinear systems same as motors drive. Because it has intelligence like human but there are no sentimental against human like angriness and.... Artificial intelligent is used for various points like approximation, control, and monitoring. Because artificial intelligent techniques can use as controller for any system without requirement to system mathematical model, it has been used in electrical drive control. With this manner, efficiency and reliability of drives increase and volume, weight and cost of them decrease.

Keywords: Artificial intelligent, electrical motor, intelligent drive and control,

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7443 Climate Change in Albania and Its Effect on Cereal Yield

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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