Search results for: fuzzy regression

Authors: Petr Morávek, Miloš Šeda

Abstract:

In practice, we often come across situations where it is necessary to make decisions based on incomplete or uncertain data. In control systems it may be due to the unknown exact mathematical model, or its excessive complexity (e.g. nonlinearity) when it is necessary to simplify it, respectively, to solve it using a rule base. In the case of databases, searching data we compare a similarity measure with of the requirements of the selection with stored data, where both the select query and the data itself may contain vague terms, for example in the form of linguistic qualifiers. In this paper, we focus on the processing of uncertain data in databases and demonstrate it on the example multi-criteria decision making in the selection of variants, specified by higher number of technical parameters.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, linguistic variable, multicriteria decision

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Authors: O. Badagadze, G. Sirbiladze, I. Khutsishvili

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The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

Keywords: Expert valuations, expertons, investment project risks, positive and negative discriminations, possibility distribution.

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Authors: Jonqlan Lin, C. Y. Tasi, K. H. Lin

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This paper addresses the issue of the autonomous mobile robot (AMR) navigation task based on the hybrid control modes. The novel hybrid control mode, based on multi-sensors information by using the fuzzy approach, has been presented in this research. The system operates in real time, is robust, enables the robot to operate with imprecise knowledge, and takes into account the physical limitations of the environment in which the robot moves, obtaining satisfactory responses for a large number of different situations. An experiment is simulated and carried out with a pioneer mobile robot. From the experimental results, the effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed AMR obstacle avoidance and navigation scheme are confirmed. The experimental results show the feasibility, and the control system has improved the navigation accuracy. The implementation of the controller is robust, has a low execution time, and allows an easy design and tuning of the fuzzy knowledge base.

Keywords: Autonomous mobile robot, obstacle avoidance, MEMS, hybrid control mode, navigation control.

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

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Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: Short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems.

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Authors: S. Benchelha, H. C. Aoudjehane, M. Hakdaoui, R. El Hamdouni, H. Mansouri, T. Benchelha, M. Layelmam, M. Alaoui

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The logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MarSpline) are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility map in Oudka, Morocco, using geographical information system. From spatial database containing data such as landslide mapping, topography, soil, hydrology and lithology, the eight factors related to landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to road, distance to faults, lithology map and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by the two mentioned methods. Before the calculation, this database was divided into two parts, the first for the formation of the model and the second for the validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates to evaluate the quality of these probabilistic models. The result of this verification was that the MarSpline model is the best model with a success rate (AUC = 0.963) and a prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) higher than the LR model (success rate AUC = 0.918, rate prediction AUC = 0.901).

Keywords: Landslide susceptibility mapping, regression logistic, multivariate adaptive regression spline, Oudka, Taounate, Morocco.

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Authors: Z. Khan, O. Moselhi, T. Zayed

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Development of levels of service in municipal context is a flexible vehicle to assist in performing quality-cost trade-off analysis for municipal services. This trade-off depends on the willingness of a community to pay as well as on the condition of the assets. Community perspective of the performance of an asset from service point of view may be quite different from the municipality perspective of the performance of the same asset from condition point of view. This paper presents a three phased level of service based methodology for water mains that consists of :1)development of an Analytical Hierarchy model of level of service 2) development of Fuzzy Weighted Sum model of water main condition index and 3) deriving a Fuzzy logic based function that maps level of service to asset condition index. This mapping will assist asset managers in quantifying condition improvement requirement to meet service goals and to make more informed decisions on interventions and relayed priorities.

Keywords: Asset Management, Level of Service, Condition Index, Analytical Hierarchy, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: N. Ouldcherchali, M. S. Boucherit, L. Barazane, A. Morsli

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In this study, we proposed two techniques to track the maximum power point (MPPT) of a photovoltaic system. The first is an intelligent control technique, and the second is robust used for variable structure system. In fact the characteristics I-V and P–V of the photovoltaic generator depends on the solar irradiance and temperature. These climate changes cause the fluctuation of maximum power point; a maximum power point tracking technique (MPPT) is required to maximize the output power. For this we have adopted a control by fuzzy logic (FLC) famous for its stability and robustness. And a Siding Mode Control (SMC) widely used for variable structure system. The system comprises a photovoltaic panel (PV), a DC-DC converter, which is considered as an adaptation stage between the PV and the load. The modelling and simulation of the system is developed using MATLAB/Simulink. SMC technique provides a good tracking speed in fast changing irradiation and when the irradiation changes slowly or it is constant the panel power of FLC technique presents a much smoother signal with less fluctuations.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, maximum power point, photovoltaic system, tracker, sliding mode controller.

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Authors: Dipen A. Mistry, Bhupelly Dheeraj, Ravit Gautam, Manmohan Singh Meena, Suresh Mikkili

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In recent years the large scale use of the power electronic equipment has led to an increase of harmonics in the power system. The harmonics results into a poor power quality and have great adverse economical impact on the utilities and customers. Current harmonics are one of the most common power quality problems and are usually resolved by using shunt active filter (SHAF). The main objective of this work is to develop PI and Fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) to analyze the performance of Shunt Active Filter for mitigating current harmonics under balanced and unbalanced sinusoidal source voltage conditions for normal load and increased load. When the supply voltages are ideal (balanced), both PI and FLC are converging to the same compensation characteristics. However, the supply voltages are non-ideal (unbalanced), FLC offers outstanding results. Simulation results validate the superiority of FLC with triangular membership function over the PI controller.

Keywords: DC link voltage, Fuzzy logic controller, Harmonics, PI controller, Shunt Active Filter.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

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Environmental aspects plays a central role in environmental management system (EMS) because it is the basis for the identification of an organization-s environmental targets. The existing methods for the assessment of environmental aspects are grouped into three categories: risk assessment-based (RA-based), LCA-based and criterion-based methods. To combine the benefits of these three categories of research, this study proposes an integrated framework, combining RA-, LCA- and criterion-based methods. The integrated framework incorporates LCA techniques for the identification of the causal linkage for aspect, pathway, receptor and impact, uses fuzzy logic to assess aspects, considers fuzzy conditions, in likelihood assessment, and employs a new multi-criteria decision analysis method - multi-criteria and multi-connection comprehensive assessment (MMCA) - to estimate significant aspects in EMS. The proposed model is verified, using a real case study and the results show that this method successfully prioritizes the environmental aspects.

Keywords: Environmental management system, environmental aspect, risk assessment, life cycle assessment.

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Authors: Fatemeh Amiri, Caro Lucas, Nasser Yazdani

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As the network based technologies become omnipresent, demands to secure networks/systems against threat increase. One of the effective ways to achieve higher security is through the use of intrusion detection systems (IDS), which are a software tool to detect anomalous in the computer or network. In this paper, an IDS has been developed using an improved machine learning based algorithm, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model (LLNF) for classification whereas this model is originally used for system identification. A key technical challenge in IDS and LLNF learning is the curse of high dimensionality. Therefore a feature selection phase is proposed which is applicable to any IDS. While investigating the use of three feature selection algorithms, in this model, it is shown that adding feature selection phase reduces computational complexity of our model. Feature selection algorithms require the use of a feature goodness measure. The use of both a linear and a non-linear measure - linear correlation coefficient and mutual information- is investigated respectively

Keywords: anomaly Detection, feature selection, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy (LLNF), Mutual Information (MI), liner correlation coefficient.

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Authors: Muhammad Muhsin, Abhishek Mishra, Shreyansh Vishwakarma, K. Dasaratha Babu, Anudevi Samuel

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In an interconnected power system, any sudden small load perturbation in any of the interconnected areas causes the deviation of the area frequencies, the tie line power and voltage deviation at the generator terminals. This paper deals with the study of performance of intelligent Fuzzy Logic controllers coupled with Conventional Controllers (PI and PID) for Load Frequency Control. For analysis, an isolated single area and interconnected two area thermal power systems with and without generation rate constraints (GRC) have been considered. The studies have been performed with conventional PI and PID controllers and their performance has been compared with intelligent fuzzy controllers. It can be demonstrated that these controllers can successfully bring back the excursions in area frequencies and tie line powers within acceptable limits in smaller time periods and with lesser transients as compared to the performance of conventional controllers under same load disturbance conditions. The simulations in MATLAB have been used for comparative studies.

Keywords: Area Control Error, Fuzzy Logic, Generation rate constraint, Load Frequency, Tie line Power.

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Authors: Josu Arteche, Jesus Orbe

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The log periodogram regression is widely used in empirical applications because of its simplicity, since only a least squares regression is required to estimate the memory parameter, d, its good asymptotic properties and its robustness to misspecification of the short term behavior of the series. However, the asymptotic distribution is a poor approximation of the (unknown) finite sample distribution if the sample size is small. Here the finite sample performance of different nonparametric residual bootstrap procedures is analyzed when applied to construct confidence intervals. In particular, in addition to the basic residual bootstrap, the local and block bootstrap that might adequately replicate the structure that may arise in the errors of the regression are considered when the series shows weak dependence in addition to the long memory component. Bias correcting bootstrap to adjust the bias caused by that structure is also considered. Finally, the performance of the bootstrap in log periodogram regression based confidence intervals is assessed in different type of models and how its performance changes as sample size increases.

Keywords: bootstrap, confidence interval, log periodogram regression, long memory.

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Authors: L. Ludovic, R. Daniel, S-E Tbahriti

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Database management systems that integrate user preferences promise better solution for personalization, greater flexibility and higher quality of query responses. This paper presents a tentative work that studies and investigates approaches to express user preferences in queries. We sketch an extend capabilities of SQLf language that uses the fuzzy set theory in order to define the user preferences. For that, two essential points are considered: the first concerns the expression of user preferences in SQLf by so-called fuzzy commensurable predicates set. The second concerns the bipolar way in which these user preferences are expressed on mandatory and/or optional preferences.

Keywords: Flexible query language, relational database, userpreference.

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Authors: Abder-Rahman Ali, Antoine Vacavant, Manuel Grand-Brochier, Adélaïde Albouy-Kissi, Jean-Yves Boire

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In this paper, we present a new segmentation approach for liver lesions in regions of interest within MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging). This approach, based on a two-cluster Fuzzy CMeans methodology, considers the parameter variable compactness to handle uncertainty. Fine boundaries are detected by a local recursive merging of ambiguous pixels with a sequential forward floating selection with Zernike moments. The method has been tested on both synthetic and real images. When applied on synthetic images, the proposed approach provides good performance, segmentations obtained are accurate, their shape is consistent with the ground truth, and the extracted information is reliable. The results obtained on MR images confirm such observations. Our approach allows, even for difficult cases of MR images, to extract a segmentation with good performance in terms of accuracy and shape, which implies that the geometry of the tumor is preserved for further clinical activities (such as automatic extraction of pharmaco-kinetics properties, lesion characterization, etc.).

Keywords: Defuzzification, floating search, fuzzy clustering, Zernike moments.

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Authors: Fatemeh Valizadeh Gamchi, Edward L. Boone

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This research focuses on Lyme disease, a widespread infectious condition in the United States caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. It is critical to identify environmental and economic elements that are contributing to the spread of the disease. This study examined data from Virginia to identify a subset of explanatory variables significant for Lyme disease case numbers. To identify relevant variables and avoid overfitting, linear poisson, and regularization regression methods such as ridge, lasso, and elastic net penalty were employed. Cross-validation was performed to acquire tuning parameters. The methods proposed can automatically identify relevant disease count covariates. The efficacy of the techniques was assessed using four criteria on three simulated datasets. Finally, using the Virginia Department of Health’s Lyme disease dataset, the study successfully identified key factors, and the results were consistent with previous studies.

Keywords: Lyme disease, Poisson generalized linear model, Ridge regression, Lasso Regression, elastic net regression.

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Authors: M Nayeripour, H. Khorsand, A. Roosta, T. Niknam, E. Azad

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Series compensators have been used for many years, to increase the stability and load ability of transmission line. They compensate retarded or advanced volt drop of transmission lines by placing advanced or retarded voltage in series with them to compensate the effective reactance, which cause to increase load ability of transmission lines. In this paper, two method of fuzzy controller, based on power reference tracking and impedance reference tracking have been developed on TCSC controller in order to increase load ability and improving power oscillation damping of system. In these methods, fire angle of thyristors are determined directly through the special Rule-bases with the error and change of error as the inputs. The simulation results of two area four- machines power system show the good performance of power oscillation damping in system. Comparison of this method with classical PI controller shows the increasing speed of system response in power oscillation damping.

Keywords: TCSC, Two area network, Fuzzy controller, Power oscillation damping.

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Authors: P. Naderi, S.M.T. Bathaee, R. Hoseinnezhad, R. Chini

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Using electrical machine in conventional vehicles, also called hybrid vehicles, has become a promising control scheme that enables some manners for fuel economy and driver assist for better stability. In this paper, vehicle stability control, fuel economy and Driving/Regeneration braking for a 4WD hybrid vehicle is investigated by using an electrical machine on each non-driven wheels. In front wheels driven vehicles, fuel economy and regenerative braking can be obtained by summing torques applied on rear wheels. On the other hand, unequal torques applied to rear wheels provides enhanced safety and path correction in steering. In this paper, a model with fourteen degrees of freedom is considered for vehicle body, tires and, suspension systems. Thereafter, powertrain subsystems are modeled. Considering an electrical machine on each rear wheel, a fuzzy controller is designed for each driving, braking, and stability conditions. Another fuzzy controller recognizes the vehicle requirements between the driving/regeneration and stability modes. Intelligent vehicle control to multi objective operation and forward simulation are the paper advantages. For reaching to these aims, power management control and yaw moment control will be done by three fuzzy controllers. Also, the above mentioned goals are weighted by another fuzzy sub-controller base on vehicle dynamic. Finally, Simulations performed in MATLAB/SIMULINK environment show that the proposed structure can enhance the vehicle performance in different modes effectively.

Keywords: Hybrid, pitch, roll, regeneration, yaw.

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Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

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In this paper, we use nonlinear system identification method to predict and detect process fault of a cement rotary kiln. After selecting proper inputs and output, an input-output model is identified for the plant. To identify the various operation points in the kiln, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) model is used. This model is trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental treestructure algorithm. Then, by using this method, we obtained 3 distinct models for the normal and faulty situations in the kiln. One of the models is for normal condition of the kiln with 15 minutes prediction horizon. The other two models are for the two faulty situations in the kiln with 7 minutes prediction horizon are presented. At the end, we detect these faults in validation data. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for in this study.

Keywords: Cement Rotary Kiln, Fault Detection, Delay Estimation Method, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model, LOLIMOT.

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Authors: Wann-Ming Wey

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In recent years, the problems of global climate change and natural disasters have induced the concerns and attentions of environmental sustainability issues for the public. Aside from the environmental planning efforts done for human environment, Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) has been widely used as one of the future solutions for the sustainable city development. In order to be more consistent with the urban sustainable development, the development of the built environment planning based on the concept of Green TOD which combines both TOD and Green Urbanism is adapted here. The connotation of the urban development under the green TOD including the design toward environment protect, the maximum enhancement resources and the efficiency of energy use, use technology to construct green buildings and protected areas, natural ecosystems and communities linked, etc. Green TOD is not only to provide the solution to urban traffic problems, but to direct more sustainable and greener consideration for future urban development planning and design. In this study, we use both the TOD and Green Urbanism concepts to proceed to the study of the built environment planning and design. Fuzzy Delphi Technique (FDT) is utilized to screen suitable criteria of the green TOD. Furthermore, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) were then developed to evaluate the criteria and prioritize the alternatives. The study results can be regarded as the future guidelines of the built environment planning and designing under green TOD development in Taiwan.

Keywords: Green transit-oriented development, built environment, fuzzy Delphi technique, quality function deployment, fuzzy analytic network process.

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Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

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In urban area, several landmarks may affect housing price and rents, and hedonic analysis should employ distance variables corresponding to each landmarks. Unfortunately, the effects of distances to landmarks on housing prices are generally not consistent with the true price. These distance variables may cause magnitude error in regression, pointing a problem of spatial multicollinearity. In this paper, we provided some approaches for getting the samples with less bias and method on locating the specific sampling area to avoid the multicollinerity problem in two specific landmarks case.

Keywords: Landmarks, hedonic regression, distance variables, collinearity, multicollinerity.

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Authors: Said Baadel, Fadi Thabtah, Joan Lu

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Clustering involves the partitioning of n objects into k clusters. Many clustering algorithms use hard-partitioning techniques where each object is assigned to one cluster. In this paper we propose an overlapping algorithm MCOKE which allows objects to belong to one or more clusters. The algorithm is different from fuzzy clustering techniques because objects that overlap are assigned a membership value of 1 (one) as opposed to a fuzzy membership degree. The algorithm is also different from other overlapping algorithms that require a similarity threshold be defined a priori which can be difficult to determine by novice users.

Keywords: Data mining, k-means, MCOKE, overlapping.

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Authors: Latifeh PourMohammadBagher

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In this paper I have developed a system for evaluating the degree of fear emotion that the intelligent agent-based system may feel when it encounters to a persecuting event. In this paper I want to describe behaviors of emotional agents using human behavior in terms of the way their emotional states evolve over time. I have implemented a fuzzy inference system using Java environment. As the inputs of this system, I have considered three parameters related on human fear emotion. The system outputs can be used in agent decision making process or choosing a person for team working systems by combination the intensity of fear to other emotion intensities.

Keywords: Emotion simulation, Fear, Fuzzy intelligent agent

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Authors: Norbik Bashah, Idris Bharanidharan Shanmugam, Abdul Manan Ahmed

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Intrusion Detection Systems are increasingly a key part of systems defense. Various approaches to Intrusion Detection are currently being used, but they are relatively ineffective. Artificial Intelligence plays a driving role in security services. This paper proposes a dynamic model Intelligent Intrusion Detection System, based on specific AI approach for intrusion detection. The techniques that are being investigated includes neural networks and fuzzy logic with network profiling, that uses simple data mining techniques to process the network data. The proposed system is a hybrid system that combines anomaly, misuse and host based detection. Simple Fuzzy rules allow us to construct if-then rules that reflect common ways of describing security attacks. For host based intrusion detection we use neural-networks along with self organizing maps. Suspicious intrusions can be traced back to its original source path and any traffic from that particular source will be redirected back to them in future. Both network traffic and system audit data are used as inputs for both.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection, Network Security, Data mining, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Njiri J. G., Ikua B. W., Nyakoe G. N.

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Optimization of cutting parameters important in precision machining in regards to efficiency and surface integrity of the machined part. Usually productivity and precision in machining is limited by the forces emanating from the cutting process. Due to the inherent varying nature of the workpiece in terms of geometry and material composition, the peak cutting forces vary from point to point during machining process. In order to increase productivity without compromising on machining accuracy, it is important to control these cutting forces. In this paper a fuzzy logic control algorithm is developed that can be applied in the control of peak cutting forces in milling of spherical surfaces using ball end mills. The controller can adaptively vary the feedrate to maintain allowable cutting force on the tool. This control algorithm is implemented in a computer numerical control (CNC) machine. It has been demonstrated that the controller can provide stable machining and improve the performance of the CNC milling process by varying feedrate.

Keywords: Ball-end mill, feedrate, fuzzy logic controller, machining optimization, spherical surface.

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Authors: Hamed.Vezvaei, Sepideh.Ordibeheshti, Mehdi.Ardjmand

Abstract:

Gasoline Octane Number is the standard measure of the anti-knock properties of a motor in platforming processes, that is one of the important unit operations for oil refineries and can be determined with online measurement or use CFR (Cooperative Fuel Research) engines. Online measurements of the Octane number can be done using direct octane number analyzers, that it is too expensive, so we have to find feasible analyzer, like ANFIS estimators. ANFIS is the systems that neural network incorporated in fuzzy systems, using data automatically by learning algorithms of NNs. ANFIS constructs an input-output mapping based both on human knowledge and on generated input-output data pairs. In this research, 31 industrial data sets are used (21 data for training and the rest of the data used for generalization). Results show that, according to this simulation, hybrid method training algorithm in ANFIS has good agreements between industrial data and simulated results.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems, GasolineOctane Number, Soft-sensor, Catalytic Naphtha Reforming

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Authors: P. Subha Karuvelam, M. Rajaram

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Brushless DC motors (BLDC) are widely used in industrial areas. The BLDC motors are driven either by indirect ACAC converters or by direct AC-AC converters. Direct AC-AC converters i.e. matrix converters are used in this paper to drive the three phase BLDC motor and it eliminates the bulky DC link energy storage element. A matrix converter converts the AC power supply to an AC voltage of variable amplitude and variable frequency. A control technique is designed to generate the switching pulses for the three phase matrix converter. For the control of speed of the BLDC motor a separate PI controller and Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) are designed and a hysteresis current controller is also designed for the control of motor torque. The control schemes are designed and tested separately. The simulation results of both the schemes are compared and contrasted in this paper. The results show that the fuzzy logic control scheme outperforms the PI control scheme in terms of dynamic performance of the BLDC motor. Simulation results are validated with the experimental results.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, matrix converter, permanent magnet brushless DC motor, PI controller.

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Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

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recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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Authors: A. Bekbaev, M. Dzhamanbaev, R. Abitaeva, A. Karbozova, G. Nabyeva

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In this paper, the regression dependence of dancing intensity from wind speed and length of span was established due to the statistic data obtained from multi-year observations on line wires dancing accumulated by power systems of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. The lower and upper limitations of the equations parameters were estimated, as well as the adequacy of the regression model. The constructed model will be used in research of dancing phenomena for the development of methods and means of protection against dancing and for zoning plan of the territories of line wire dancing.

Keywords: Power lines, line wire dancing, dancing intensity, regression equation, dancing area intensity.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

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This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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Authors: K. S. Chia, H. Abdul Rahim, R. Abdul Rahim

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The Principal component regression (PCR) is a combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The objective of this paper is to revise the use of PCR in shortwave near infrared (SWNIR) (750-1000nm) spectral analysis. The idea of PCR was explained mathematically and implemented in the non-destructive assessment of the soluble solid content (SSC) of pineapple based on SWNIR spectral data. PCR achieved satisfactory results in this application with root mean squared error of calibration (RMSEC) of 0.7611 Brix°, coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.5865 and root mean squared error of crossvalidation (RMSECV) of 0.8323 Brix° with principal components (PCs) of 14.

Keywords: Pineapple, Shortwave near infrared, Principal component regression, Non-invasive measurement; Soluble solids content

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