Search results for: reliability approximation

Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sadegh Balaghi, Ehsan Khojastehfar

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Time history dynamic analysis of structures is considered as an exact method while being computationally intensive. Filtration of earthquake strong ground motions applying wavelet transform is an approach towards reduction of computational efforts, particularly in optimization of structures against seismic effects. Wavelet transforms are categorized into continuum and discrete transforms. Since earthquake strong ground motion is a discrete function, the discrete wavelet transform is applied in the present paper. Wavelet transform reduces analysis time by filtration of non-effective frequencies of strong ground motion. Filtration process may be repeated several times while the approximation induces more errors. In this paper, strong ground motion of earthquake has been filtered once applying each wavelet. Strong ground motion of Northridge earthquake is filtered applying various wavelets and dynamic analysis of sampled shear and moment frames is implemented. The error, regarding application of each wavelet, is computed based on comparison of dynamic response of sampled structures with exact responses. Exact responses are computed by dynamic analysis of structures applying non-filtered strong ground motion.

Keywords: Wavelet transform, computational error, computational duration, strong ground motion data.

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Authors: Imen Aouini, Lamia Ben Azzouz

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The energy need is growing rapidly due to the population growth and the large new usage of power. Several works put considerable efforts to make the electricity grid more intelligent to reduce essentially energy consumption and provide efficiency and reliability of power systems. The Smart Grid is a complex architecture that covers critical devices and systems vulnerable to significant attacks. Hence, security is a crucial factor for the success and the wide deployment of Smart Grids. In this paper, we present security issues of the Smart Grid architecture and we highlight open issues that will make the Smart Grid security a challenging research area in the future.

Keywords: Smart grids, smart meters, home area network, neighbor area network.

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Authors: Sarah Odofin, Zhiwei Gao, Sun Kai

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Operations, maintenance and reliability of wind turbines have received much attention over the years due to the rapid expansion of wind farms. This paper explores early fault diagnosis technique for a 5MW wind turbine system subjected to multiple faults, where genetic optimization algorithm is employed to make the residual sensitive to the faults, but robust against disturbances. The proposed technique has a potential to reduce the downtime mostly caused by the breakdown of components and exploit the productivity consistency by providing timely fault alarms. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the robust fault detection methods used under Matlab/Simulink/Gatool environment.

Keywords: Disturbance robustness, fault monitoring and detection, genetic algorithm and observer technique.

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Authors: Ararat Khachatryan, Davit Mirzoyan

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In sub micrometer technology, the aging phenomenon starts to have a significant impact on the reliability of integrated circuits by bringing performance degradation. For that reason, it is important to have a capability to evaluate the aging effects accurately. This paper presents an accurate aging measurement approach based on phase-locked loop (PLL) and voltage-controlled oscillator (VCO) circuit. The architecture is rejecting the circuit self-aging effect from the characteristics of PLL, which is generating the frequency without any aging phenomena affects. The aging monitor is implemented in low power 32 nm CMOS technology, and occupies a pretty small area. Aging simulation results show that the proposed aging measurement circuit improves accuracy by about 2.8% at high temperature and 19.6% at high voltage.

Keywords: Nanoscale, aging, effect, NBTI, HCI.

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Authors: B. Terzioglu, E.S.K. Chan

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The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview on methodological aspects of the information technology outsourcing (ITO) surveys, in an attempt to improve the data quality and reporting in survey research. It is based on a review of thirty articles on ITO surveys and focuses on two commonly explored dimensions of ITO, namely what are outsourced and why should there be ITO. This study highlights weaknesses in ITO surveys including lack of a clear definition of population, lack of information regarding the sampling method used, not citing the response rate, no information pertaining to pilot testing of survey instrument and absence of information on internal validity in the use or reporting of surveys. This study represents an attempt with a limited scope to point to shortfalls in the use survey methodology in ITO, and thus raise awareness among researchers in enhancing the reliability of survey findings.

Keywords: ITO, information technology outsourcing, survey methodology

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Authors: Chin-Hung Li

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Determining how many virtual machines a Linux host could run can be a challenge. One of tough missions is to find the balance among performance, density and usability. Now KVM hypervisor has become the most popular open source full virtualization solution. It supports several ways of running guests with more memory than host really has. Due to large differences between minimum and maximum guest memory requirements, this paper presents initial results on same-page merging, ballooning and live migration techniques that aims at optimum memory usage on KVM-based cloud platform. Given the design of initial experiments, the results data is worth reference for system administrators. The results from these experiments concluded that each method offers different reliability tradeoff.

Keywords: Kernel-based Virtual Machine, Overcommit, Virtualization.

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Authors: J. Arneric, A. Rozga

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In this paper usefulness of quasi-Newton iteration procedure in parameters estimation of the conditional variance equation within BHHH algorithm is presented. Analytical solution of maximization of the likelihood function using first and second derivatives is too complex when the variance is time-varying. The advantage of BHHH algorithm in comparison to the other optimization algorithms is that requires no third derivatives with assured convergence. To simplify optimization procedure BHHH algorithm uses the approximation of the matrix of second derivatives according to information identity. However, parameters estimation in a/symmetric GARCH(1,1) model assuming normal distribution of returns is not that simple, i.e. it is difficult to solve it analytically. Maximum of the likelihood function can be founded by iteration procedure until no further increase can be found. Because the solutions of the numerical optimization are very sensitive to the initial values, GARCH(1,1) model starting parameters are defined. The number of iterations can be reduced using starting values close to the global maximum. Optimization procedure will be illustrated in framework of modeling volatility on daily basis of the most liquid stocks on Croatian capital market: Podravka stocks (food industry), Petrokemija stocks (fertilizer industry) and Ericsson Nikola Tesla stocks (information-s-communications industry).

Keywords: Heteroscedasticity, Log-likelihood Maximization, Quasi-Newton iteration procedure, Volatility.

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Authors: H. Taheri Shahraiyni, B. Ataie Ashtiani

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Flow movement in unsaturated soil can be expressed by a partial differential equation, named Richards equation. The objective of this study is the finding of an appropriate implicit numerical solution for head based Richards equation. Some of the well known finite difference schemes (fully implicit, Crank Nicolson and Runge-Kutta) have been utilized in this study. In addition, the effects of different approximations of moisture capacity function, convergence criteria and time stepping methods were evaluated. Two different infiltration problems were solved to investigate the performance of different schemes. These problems include of vertical water flow in a wet and very dry soils. The numerical solutions of two problems were compared using four evaluation criteria and the results of comparisons showed that fully implicit scheme is better than the other schemes. In addition, utilizing of standard chord slope method for approximation of moisture capacity function, automatic time stepping method and difference between two successive iterations as convergence criterion in the fully implicit scheme can lead to better and more reliable results for simulation of fluid movement in different unsaturated soils.

Keywords: Finite Difference methods, Richards equation, fullyimplicit, Crank-Nicolson, Runge-Kutta.

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Authors: Mahdad M’hamed, Belaidi Idir

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This paper develops a meshless approach, called Element Free Galerkin (EFG) method, which is based on the weak form Moving Least Squares (MLS) of the partial differential governing equations and employs the interpolation to construct the meshless shape functions. The variation weak form is used in the EFG where the trial and test functions are approximated bye the MLS approximation. Since the shape functions constructed by this discretization have the weight function property based on the randomly distributed points, the essential boundary conditions can be implemented easily. The local weak form of the partial differential governing equations is obtained by the weighted residual method within the simple local quadrature domain. The spline function with high continuity is used as the weight function. The presently developed EFG method is a truly meshless method, as it does not require the mesh, either for the construction of the shape functions, or for the integration of the local weak form. Several numerical examples of two-dimensional static structural analysis are presented to illustrate the performance of the present EFG method. They show that the EFG method is highly efficient for the implementation and highly accurate for the computation. The present method is used to analyze the static deflection of beams and plate hole

Keywords: Numerical computation, element-free Galerkin, moving least squares, meshless methods.

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

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Reliability and availability of power stations are extremely important in order to achieve a required level of power generation. In particular, in the hot desert climate of Kuwait, reliable power generation is extremely important because of cooling requirements at temperatures exceeding 50-centigrade degrees. In this paper, a particular power plant, named Sabiya Power Plant, which has 8 steam turbines and 13 gas turbine stations, has been studied in detail; extensive data are collected; and availability of station units are determined. Furthermore, a simulation model is developed and used to analyze the effects of different maintenance policies on availability of these stations. The results show that significant improvements can be achieved in power plant availabilities if appropriate maintenance policies are implemented.

Keywords: Power plants, steam turbines, gas turbines, maintenance, availability, simulation.

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Authors: Abdulnasir Hossen, Ulrich Heute

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In 1990 [1] the subband-DFT (SB-DFT) technique was proposed. This technique used the Hadamard filters in the decomposition step to split the input sequence into low- and highpass sequences. In the next step, either two DFTs are needed on both bands to compute the full-band DFT or one DFT on one of the two bands to compute an approximate DFT. A combination network with correction factors was to be applied after the DFTs. Another approach was proposed in 1997 [2] for using a special discrete wavelet transform (DWT) to compute the discrete Fourier transform (DFT). In the first step of the algorithm, the input sequence is decomposed in a similar manner to the SB-DFT into two sequences using wavelet decomposition with Haar filters. The second step is to perform DFTs on both bands to obtain the full-band DFT or to obtain a fast approximate DFT by implementing pruning at both input and output sides. In this paper, the wavelet-based DFT (W-DFT) with Haar filters is interpreted as SB-DFT with Hadamard filters. The only difference is in a constant factor in the combination network. This result is very important to complete the analysis of the W-DFT, since all the results concerning the accuracy and approximation errors in the SB-DFT are applicable. An application example in spectral analysis is given for both SB-DFT and W-DFT (with different filters). The adaptive capability of the SB-DFT is included in the W-DFT algorithm to select the band of most energy as the band to be computed. Finally, the W-DFT is extended to the two-dimensional case. An application in image transformation is given using two different types of wavelet filters.

Keywords: Image Transform, Spectral Analysis, Sub-Band DFT, Wavelet DFT.

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Micaela Demichela

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During the last decades, a number of food crises such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Mad-Cow disease, Dioxin in chicken food, Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), have certainly inflected the reliability of the food industry. Consequently, the trend in applying different scientific methods of risk assessment in food safety has obtained more attentions in the academic and practice. However, lack of practical approach considering entire food supply chain is tangible in the academic literature. In this regard, this paper aims to apply risk assessment tool (FMEA) with integration of Human Factor along the entire supply chain of food production and test the method in a case study of Diary production, and analyze its results.

Keywords: Food Risk Assessment, FMEA, Human Factor.

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Authors: Leandro Marcos Alves Vaz

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In this article, we analyze the different approaches to the topic Magnetism of Matter in physics textbooks of Brazilian schools. For this, we compared the approach to the concepts of the magnetic characteristics of materials (diamagnetism, paramagnetism, ferromagnetism and antiferromagnetism) in different sources of information and in different levels of education, from Higher Education to High School. In this sense, we used as reference the theory of the Didactic Transposition of Yves Chevallard, a French educational theorist, who conceived in his theory three types of knowledge – Scholarly Knowledge, Knowledge to be taught and Taught Knowledge – related to teaching practice. As a research methodology, from the reading of the works used in teacher training and those destined to basic education students, we compared the treatment of a higher education physics book, a scientific article published in a Brazilian journal of the educational area, and four high school textbooks, in order to establish in which there is a greater or lesser degree of approximation with the knowledge produced by the scholars – scholarly knowledge – or even with the knowledge to be taught (to that found in books intended for teaching). Thus, we evaluated the level of proximity of the subjects conveyed in high school and higher education, as well as the relevance that some textbook authors give to the theme.

Keywords: Magnetism of matter, teaching of physics, didactic transposition, Brazilian physics books.

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Authors: Kevin McDaid, Simon P. Wilson

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Software developed for a specific customer under contract typically undergoes a period of testing by the customer before acceptance. This is known as user acceptance testing and the process can reveal both defects in the system and requests for changes to the product. This paper uses nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to model a real user acceptance data set from a recently developed system. In particular a split Poisson process is shown to provide an excellent fit to the data. The paper explains how this model can be used to aid the allocation of resources through the accurate prediction of occurrences both during the acceptance testing phase and before this activity begins.

Keywords: User acceptance testing. Software reliability growth modelling. Split Poisson process. Bayesian methods.

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Authors: Amin Almasi

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Reliability assessment and risk analysis of rotating machine rotors in various overload and malfunction situations present challenge to engineers and operators. In this paper a new analytical method for evaluation of rotor under large deformation is addressed. Model is presented in general form to include also composite rotors. Presented simulation procedure is based on variational work method and has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, large displacement, nonlinear support effect and rotor contacting other machine components. New shape functions are presented which capable to predict accurate nonlinear profile of rotor. The closed form solutions for various operating and malfunction situations are expressed. Analytical simulation results are discussed

Keywords: Large Deformation, Nonlinear, Rotor.

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Authors: Jaechun No

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As data to be stored in storage subsystems tremendously increases, data protection techniques have become more important than ever, to provide data availability and reliability. In this paper, we present the file system-based data protection (WOWSnap) that has been implemented using WORM (Write-Once-Read-Many) scheme. In the WOWSnap, once WORM files have been created, only the privileged read requests to them are allowed to protect data against any intentional/accidental intrusions. Furthermore, all WORM files are related to their protection cycle that is a time period during which WORM files should securely be protected. Once their protection cycle is expired, the WORM files are automatically moved to the general-purpose data section without any user interference. This prevents the WORM data section from being consumed by unnecessary files. We evaluated the performance of WOWSnap on Linux cluster.

Keywords: Data protection, Protection cycle, WORM

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Authors: M. Arja, G. Sauce, B. Souyri

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Overall cost is a significant consideration in any decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value, its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually unexpected uncertainty factors.

Keywords: Asset management, building life cycle uncertainty, building value, overall cost.

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Authors: A. Rashid, N. Hasan

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The present study investigates numerically the phenomenon of vortex-shedding and its suppression in twodimensional mixed convective flow past a square cylinder under the joint influence of buoyancy and free-stream orientation with respect to gravity. The numerical experiments have been conducted at a fixed Reynolds number (Re) of 100 and Prandtl number (Pr) of 0.71, while Richardson number (Ri) is varied from 0 to 1.6 and freestream orientation, α, is kept in the range 0o≤ α ≤ 90o, with 0o corresponding to an upward flow and 90o representing a cross-flow scenario, respectively. The continuity, momentum and energy equations, subject to Boussinesq approximation, are discretized using a finite difference method and are solved by a semi-explicit pressure correction scheme. The critical Richardson number, leading to the suppression of the vortex-shedding (Ric), is estimated by using Stuart-Landau theory at various free-stream orientations and the neutral curve is obtained in the Ri-α plane. The neutral curve exhibits an interesting non-monotonic behavior with Ric first increasing with increasing values of α upto 45o and then decreasing till 70o. Beyond 70o, the neutral curve again exhibits a sharp increasing asymptotic trend with Ric approaching very large values as α approaches 90o. The suppression of vortex shedding is not observed at α = 90o (cross-flow). In the unsteady flow regime, the Strouhal number (St) increases with the increase in Richardson number.

Keywords: bluff body, buoyancy, free-stream orientation, vortex-shedding.

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Authors: Sara Sharifi Rad, Hassan Haghighi

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Due to important issues, such as deadlock, starvation, communication, non-deterministic behavior and synchronization, concurrent systems are very complex, sensitive, and error-prone. Thus ensuring reliability and accuracy of these systems is very essential. Therefore, there has been a big interest in the formal specification of concurrent programs in recent years. Nevertheless, some features of concurrent systems, such as dynamic process creation, scheduling and starvation have not been specified formally yet. Also, some other features have been specified partially and/or have been described using a combination of several different formalisms and methods whose integration needs too much effort. In other words, a comprehensive and integrated specification that could cover all aspects of concurrent systems has not been provided yet. Thus, this paper makes two major contributions: firstly, it provides a comprehensive formal framework to specify all well-known features of concurrent systems. Secondly, it provides an integrated specification of these features by using just a single formal notation, i.e., the Z language.

Keywords: Concurrent systems, Formal methods, Formal specification, Z language

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Authors: Archana S. Nanoty, A. R. Chudasama

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Three-phase induction machines are today a standard for industrial electrical drives. Cost, reliability, robustness and maintenance free operation are among the reasons these machines are replacing dc drive systems. The development of power electronics and signal processing systems has eliminated one of the greatest disadvantages of such ac systems, which is the issue of control. With modern techniques of field oriented vector control, the task of variable speed control of induction machines is no longer a disadvantage. The need to increase system performance, particularly when facing limits on the power ratings of power supplies and semiconductors, motivates the use of phase number other than three, In this paper a novel scheme of connecting two, three phase induction motors in parallel fed by two inverters; viz. VSI and CSI and their vector control is presented.

Keywords: Field oriented control, multiphase induction motor, power electronics converter.

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Authors: Juha Korpijärvi, Jari Kortelainen

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The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.

Keywords: Dynamic programming, Electric distribution system, Maintenance

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Authors: R. El Abdi, A. D. Rujinski, R. M. Boumbimba, M. Poulain

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The evolution of silica optical fiber strength aged in cetyltrimethylammonium chloride solution (CTAC) has been investigated. If the solution containing surfactants presents appreciable changes in physical and chemical properties at the critical micelle concentration (CMC), a non negligible mechanical behavior fiber change is observed for silica fiber aged in cationic surfactants as CTAC which can lead to optical fiber reliability questioning. The purpose of this work is to study the mechanical behavior of silica coated and naked optical fibers in contact with CTAC solution at different concentrations. Result analysis proves that the immersion in CTAC drastically decreases the fiber strength and specially near the CMC point. Beyond CMC point, a small increase of fiber strength is analyzed and commented.

Keywords: Optical fiber, CMC point, CTAC surfactant, fiber strength.

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Authors: Javad Rahimipour Anaraki, Saeed Samet, Mahdi Eftekhari, Chang Wook Ahn

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Feature selection and attribute reduction are crucial problems, and widely used techniques in the field of machine learning, data mining and pattern recognition to overcome the well-known phenomenon of the Curse of Dimensionality. This paper presents a feature selection method that efficiently carries out attribute reduction, thereby selecting the most informative features of a dataset. It consists of two components: 1) a measure for feature subset evaluation, and 2) a search strategy. For the evaluation measure, we have employed the fuzzy-rough dependency degree (FRFDD) of the lower approximation-based fuzzy-rough feature selection (L-FRFS) due to its effectiveness in feature selection. As for the search strategy, a modified version of a binary shuffled frog leaping algorithm is proposed (B-SFLA). The proposed feature selection method is obtained by hybridizing the B-SFLA with the FRDD. Nine classifiers have been employed to compare the proposed approach with several existing methods over twenty two datasets, including nine high dimensional and large ones, from the UCI repository. The experimental results demonstrate that the B-SFLA approach significantly outperforms other metaheuristic methods in terms of the number of selected features and the classification accuracy.

Keywords: Binary shuffled frog leaping algorithm, feature selection, fuzzy-rough set, minimal reduct.

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Authors: A. Fakhfakh, N. Ksentini, M. Loulou, N. Masmoudi, J. J. Charlot

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Today, design requirements are extending more and more from electronic (analogue and digital) to multidiscipline design. These current needs imply implementation of methodologies to make the CAD product reliable in order to improve time to market, study costs, reusability and reliability of the design process. This paper proposes a high level design approach applied for the characterization and the optimization of Switched-Current Sigma- Delta Modulators. It uses the new hardware description language VHDL-AMS to help the designers to optimize the characteristics of the modulator at a high level with a considerably reduced CPU time before passing to a transistor level characterization.

Keywords: high level design, optimization, switched-Current Sigma-Delta Modulators, VHDL-AMS.

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Authors: Juan P. Novoa, Mario A. Rios

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This paper presents a transmission planning methodology that considers the conversion of HVAC transmission lines to HVDC as an alternative of expansion of power systems, as a consequence of restrictions for the construction of new lines. The transmission expansion planning problem formulates an optimization problem that minimizes the total cost that includes the investment cost to convert lines from HVAC to HVDC and possible required reinforcements of the power system prior to the conversion. The costs analysis assesses the impact of the conversion on the reliability because transmission lines are out of service during the conversion work. The presented methodology is applied to a test system considering a planning a horizon of 10 years.

Keywords: Cost optimization, energy non supplied, HVAC, HVDC, transmission expansion planning.

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Authors: Jan Busch, Peter Nyhuis

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Considering the challenges of short product life cycles and growing variant diversity, cost minimization and manufacturing flexibility increasingly gain importance to maintain a competitive edge in today’s global and dynamic markets. In this context, an aerodynamic part feeding system for high-speed industrial assembly applications has been developed at the Institute of Production Systems and Logistics (IFA), Leibniz Universitaet Hannover. The aerodynamic part feeding system outperforms conventional systems with respect to its process safety, reliability, and operating speed. In this paper, a multi-objective optimisation of the aerodynamic feeding system regarding the orientation rate, the feeding velocity, and the required nozzle pressure is presented.

Keywords: Aerodynamic feeding system, genetic algorithm, multi-objective optimization.

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Authors: Mohammed Niyasdeen Nejaamtheen

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The accelerated growth in aircraft industries desire effectual schemes, programs, innovative designs of advanced systems and facilities to accomplish the augmenting need for home-free air transportation. In this paper, a contemporary conceptual design of a cambered airfoil has been proposed in order to providing augmented effective lift force relative to the airplane, and to eliminating drawbacks and limitations of an airfoil in a commercial airplane by using a kind of smart materials. This invention of an unsymmetrical airfoil structure utilizes the amplified air momentum around the airfoil and increased camber length to providing improved aircraft performance and assist to enhancing the reliability of the aircraft components. Moreover, this conjectured design helps to reducing airplane weight and total drag.

Keywords: Collector electrode, corona electrode, Temperatureresponsive polymer and ultra-faims microchip.

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Authors: Oliver Haala, Bernhard Wagner, Maximilian Hofmann, Martin Marz

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The excellent suitability of the externally excited synchronous machine (EESM) in automotive traction drive applications is justified by its high efficiency over the whole operation range and the high availability of materials. Usually, maximum efficiency is obtained by modelling each single loss and minimizing the sum of all losses. As a result, the quality of the optimization highly depends on the precision of the model. Moreover, it requires accurate knowledge of the saturation dependent machine inductances. Therefore, the present contribution proposes a method to minimize the overall losses of a salient pole EESM and its inverter in steady state operation based on measurement data only. Since this method does not require any manufacturer data, it is well suited for an automated measurement data evaluation and inverter parametrization. The field oriented control (FOC) of an EESM provides three current components resp. three degrees of freedom (DOF). An analytic minimization of the copper losses in the stator and the rotor (assuming constant inductances) is performed and serves as a first approximation of how to choose the optimal current reference values. After a numeric offline minimization of the overall losses based on measurement data the results are compared to a control strategy that satisfies cos (ϕ) = 1.

Keywords: Current control, efficiency, externally excited synchronous machine, optimization.

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Authors: M. A. Adeboyejo, O. O. Adeosun

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Pioneer networked systems assume that connections are reliable, and a faulty operation will be considered in case of losing a connection. Transient connections are typical of mobile devices. Areas of application of data sharing system such as these, lead to the conclusion that network connections may not always be reliable, and that the conventional approaches can be improved. Nigerian commercial banking industry is a critical system whose operation is increasingly becoming dependent on information technology (IT) driven information system. The proposed solution to this problem makes use of a hierarchically clustered network structure which we selected to reflect (as much as possible) the typical organizational structure of the Nigerian commercial banks. Representative transactions such as data updates and replication of the results of such updates were used to simulate the proposed model to show its applicability.

Keywords: Dependability, reliability, data redundancy.

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Authors: A. Nasiri Pour, B. Rostami Tabar, A.Rahimzadeh

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Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

Keywords: Lumpy Demand, Neural Network, Forecasting, Hybrid Approach.

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