Search results for: Average error probability

Authors: M.H.R.O. Abdullah, P.E. Ch'ng, N.A. Yunus

Abstract:

Some physical properties of musk lime (Citrus microcarpa) were determined in this study. The average moisture content (wet basis) of the fruit was found to be 85.10 (±0.72) %. The mean of length, width and thickness of the fruit was 26.36 (±0.97), 26.40 (±1.04) and 25.26 (±0.94) mm respectively. The average value for geometric mean diameter, sphericity, aspect ratio, mass, surface area, volume, true density, bulk density and porosity was 26.00 (±0.82) mm, 98.67 (±2.04) %, 100.23 (±3.28) %, 10.007 (±0.878) g, 2125.07 (±133.93) mm2, 8800.00 (±731.82) mm3, 1002.87 (±39.16) kgm-3, 501.70 (±22.58) kgm-3 and 49.89 (±3.15) % respectively. The coefficient of static friction on four types of structural surface was found to be varying from 0.238 (±0.025) for glass to 0.247 (±0.024) for steel surface.

Keywords: Musk lime, Citrus microcarpa, physical properties.

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Authors: Zuraidasahana Zulkarnain, Mohd Shafry Mohd Rahim, Nor Anita Fairos Ismail, Mohd Azhar M. Arsad

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Handwritten signature is accepted widely as a biometric characteristic for personal authentication. The use of appropriate features plays an important role in determining accuracy of signature verification; therefore, this paper presents a feature based on the geometrical concept. To achieve the aim, triangle attributes are exploited to design a new feature since the triangle possesses orientation, angle and transformation that would improve accuracy. The proposed feature uses triangulation geometric set comprising of sides, angles and perimeter of a triangle which is derived from the center of gravity of a signature image. For classification purpose, Euclidean classifier along with Voting-based classifier is used to verify the tendency of forgery signature. This classification process is experimented using triangular geometric feature and selected global features. Based on an experiment that was validated using Grupo de Senales 960 (GPDS-960) signature database, the proposed triangular geometric feature achieves a lower Average Error Rates (AER) value with a percentage of 34% as compared to 43% of the selected global feature. As a conclusion, the proposed triangular geometric feature proves to be a more reliable feature for accurate signature verification.

Keywords: biometrics, euclidean classifier, feature extraction, offline signature verification, VOTING-based classifier

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Authors: Dulal Acharjee, Punyaban Patel

Abstract:

For collecting data from all sensor nodes, some changes in Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) protocol is proposed. At each hop level, route-ranking technique is used for distributing packets to different selected routes dynamically. For calculating rank of a route, different parameters like: delay, residual energy and probability of packet loss are used. A hybrid topology of DMPR(Disjoint Multi Path Routing) and MMPR(Meshed Multi Path Routing) is formed, where braided topology is used in different faulty zones of network. For reducing energy consumption, variant transmission ranges is used instead of fixed transmission range. For reducing number of packet drop, a fuzzy logic inference scheme is used to insert different types of delays dynamically. A rule based system infers membership function strength which is used to calculate the final delay amount to be inserted into each of the node at different clusters. In braided path, a proposed 'Dual Line ACK Link'scheme is proposed for sending ACK signal from a damaged node or link to a parent node to ensure that any error in link or any node-failure message may not be lost anyway. This paper tries to design the theoretical aspects of a model which may be applied for collecting data from any large hanging iron structure with the help of wireless sensor network. But analyzing these data is the subject of material science and civil structural construction technology, that part is out of scope of this paper.

Keywords: Metallic corrosion, Multi Path Routing, DisjointMPR, Meshed MPR, braided path, dual line ACK link, route rankingand Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: M. M. Agheli, M. J. Nategh

Abstract:

Hexapod Machine Tool (HMT) is a parallel robot mostly based on Stewart platform. Identification of kinematic parameters of HMT is an important step of calibration procedure. In this paper an algorithm is presented for identifying the kinematic parameters of HMT using inverse kinematics error model. Based on this algorithm, the calibration procedure is simulated. Measurement configurations with maximum observability are decided as the first step of this algorithm for a robust calibration. The errors occurring in various configurations are illustrated graphically. It has been shown that the boundaries of the workspace should be searched for the maximum observability of errors. The importance of using configurations with sufficient observability in calibrating hexapod machine tools is verified by trial calibration with two different groups of randomly selected configurations. One group is selected to have sufficient observability and the other is in disregard of the observability criterion. Simulation results confirm the validity of the proposed identification algorithm.

Keywords: Calibration, Hexapod Machine Tool (HMT), InverseKinematics Error Model, Observability, Parallel Robot, ParameterIdentification.

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Authors: Irene K. Amponsah, Bennony K. Gordor, Francis Dogbey

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This paper introduces a technique for simulating a single-server exponential queuing system. The technique called the Q-Simulator is a computer program which can simulate the effect of traffic intensity on all system average quantities given the arrival and/or service rates. The Q-Simulator has three phases namely: the formula based method, the uncontrolled simulation, and the controlled simulation. The Q-Simulator generates graphs (crystal solutions) for all results of the simulation or calculation and can be used to estimate desirable average quantities such as waiting times, queue lengths, etc.

Keywords: Automation system-Simulator, Simulation, Singleserver exponential system

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Authors: Hasan Hassoun, Jaafar Hallal, Denis Duhamel, Mohammad Hammoud, Ali Hage Diab

Abstract:

This paper aims to prove the accuracy of an inexpensive smartphone camera as a non-contact vibration sensor to recover the vibration modes of a vibrating structure such as a cantilever beam. A video of a vibrating beam is filmed using a smartphone camera and then processed by the motion magnification technique. Based on this method, the first two natural frequencies and their associated mode shapes are estimated experimentally and compared to the analytical ones. Results show a relative error of less than 4% between the experimental and analytical approaches for the first two natural frequencies of the beam. Also, for the first two-mode shapes, a Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC) value of above 0.9 between the two approaches is obtained. This slight error between the different techniques ensures the viability of a cheap smartphone camera as a non-contact vibration sensor, particularly for structures vibrating at relatively low natural frequencies.

Keywords: Modal Analysis, motion magnification, smartphone camera, structural vibration, vibration modes.

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Authors: S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi, M. Sharmila

Abstract:

Over the past epoch a rampant amount of work has been done in the data clustering research under the unsupervised learning technique in Data mining. Furthermore several algorithms and methods have been proposed focusing on clustering different data types, representation of cluster models, and accuracy rates of the clusters. However no single clustering algorithm proves to be the most efficient in providing best results. Accordingly in order to find the solution to this issue a new technique, called Cluster ensemble method was bloomed. This cluster ensemble is a good alternative approach for facing the cluster analysis problem. The main hope of the cluster ensemble is to merge different clustering solutions in such a way to achieve accuracy and to improve the quality of individual data clustering. Due to the substantial and unremitting development of new methods in the sphere of data mining and also the incessant interest in inventing new algorithms, makes obligatory to scrutinize a critical analysis of the existing techniques and the future novelty. This paper exposes the comparative study of different cluster ensemble methods along with their features, systematic working process and the average accuracy and error rates of each ensemble methods. Consequently this speculative and comprehensive analysis will be very useful for the community of clustering practitioners and also helps in deciding the most suitable one to rectify the problem in hand.

Keywords: Clustering, Cluster Ensemble methods, Co-association matrix, Consensus function, Median partition.

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Authors: Omer F. Cansiz, Said M. Easa

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is mainly to predict collision frequency on the horizontal tangents combined with vertical curves using artificial neural network methods. The proposed ANN models are compared with existing regression models. First, the variables that affect collision frequency were investigated. It was found that only the annual average daily traffic, section length, access density, the rate of vertical curvature, smaller curve radius before and after the tangent were statistically significant according to related combinations. Second, three statistical models (negative binomial, zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial) were developed using the significant variables for three alignment combinations. Third, ANN models are developed by applying the same variables for each combination. The results clearly show that the ANN models have the lowest mean square error value than those of the statistical models. Similarly, the AIC values of the ANN models are smaller to those of the regression models for all the combinations. Consequently, the ANN models have better statistical performances than statistical models for estimating collision frequency. The ANN models presented in this paper are recommended for evaluating the safety impacts 3D alignment elements on horizontal tangents.

Keywords: Collision frequency, horizontal tangent, 3D two-lane highway, negative binomial, zero inflated Poisson, artificial neural network.

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Authors: Jean-Pierre Dubois, Rania Minkara, Rafic Ayoubi

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Maximal Ratio Combining (MRC) is considered the most complex combining technique as it requires channel coefficients estimation. It results in the lowest bit error rate (BER) compared to all other combining techniques. However the BER starts to deteriorate as errors are introduced in the channel coefficients estimation. A novel combining technique, termed Generalized Maximal Ratio Combining (GMRC) with a polynomial kernel, yields an identical BER as MRC with perfect channel estimation and a lower BER in the presence of channel estimation errors. We show that GMRC outperforms the optimal MRC scheme in general and we hereinafter introduce it to the scientific community as a new “supraoptimal" algorithm. Since diversity combining is especially effective in small femto- and pico-cells, internet-associated wireless peripheral systems are to benefit most from GMRC. As a result, many spinoff applications can be made to IP-based 4th generation networks.

Keywords: Bit error rate, femto-internet cells, generalized maximal ratio combining, signal-to-scattering noise ratio.

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Authors: Michael Lissack

Abstract:

We depend upon explanation in order to “make sense" out of our world. And, making sense is all the more important when dealing with change. But, what happens if our explanations are wrong? This question is examined with respect to two types of explanatory model. Models based on labels and categories we shall refer to as “representations." More complex models involving stories, multiple algorithms, rules of thumb, questions, ambiguity we shall refer to as “compressions." Both compressions and representations are reductions. But representations are far more reductive than compressions. Representations can be treated as a set of defined meanings – coherence with regard to a representation is the degree of fidelity between the item in question and the definition of the representation, of the label. By contrast, compressions contain enough degrees of freedom and ambiguity to allow us to make internal predictions so that we may determine our potential actions in the possibility space. Compressions are explanatory via mechanism. Representations are explanatory via category. Managers are often confusing their evocation of a representation (category inclusion) as the creation of a context of compression (description of mechanism). When this type of explanatory error occurs, more errors follow. In the drive for efficiency such substitutions are all too often proclaimed – at the manager-s peril..

Keywords: Coherence, Emergence, Reduction, Model

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Authors: Wichan Lertlop, Boonyarat Chaleephay

Abstract:

The objective of this research was to study the appropriate thermal level and time for dabbing customers with the massage compressed pack reported from their perception. The investigation was conducted by comparing different angles of tilted heads done by the customers together with their perception before and after the dabbing. The variables included different temperature of the compressed packs and different dabbing duration. Samples in this study included volunteers who got massage therapy and dabbing with hot compressed packs by traditional Thai medical students. The experiment was conducted during January to June 2013. The research tool consisted of angle meters, stop watches, thermometers, and massage compressed packs. The customers were interviewed for their perceptions before and after the dabbing. The results showed that:

1. There was a difference of the average angles of tilted heads before and after the dabbing.
2. There was no difference of the average angles at different temperatures but constant duration.
3. There was no difference of the average angles at different durations.
4. The customers reported relaxation no matter what the various temperatures and various dabbing durations were. However, they reported too hot at the temperature 70^oC and over.

Keywords: Massage, Therapy, Therapeutic Systems and Technologies.

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Authors: A. Dal Monte, M. Raciti Castelli, G. B. Bellato, L. Stevanato, E. Benini

Abstract:

The wind resource in the Italian site of Lendinara (RO) is analyzed through a systematic anemometric campaign performed on the top of the bell tower, at an altitude of over 100 m above the ground. Both the average wind speed and the Weibull distribution are computed. The resulting average wind velocity is in accordance with the numerical predictions of the Italian Wind Atlas, confirming the accuracy of the extrapolation of wind data adopted for the evaluation of wind potential at higher altitudes with respect to the commonly placed measurement stations.

Keywords: Anemometric campaign, wind resource, Weibull distribution, wind atlas

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Authors: Romisaa Ali

Abstract:

The Policy Gradient approach is a subset of the Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) combines Deep Neural Networks (DNN) with Reinforcement Learning (RL). This approach finds the optimal policy of robot movement, based on the experience it gains from interaction with its environment. Unlike previous policy gradient algorithms, which were unable to handle the two types of error variance and bias introduced by the DNN model due to over- or underestimation, this algorithm is capable of handling both types of error variance and bias. This article will discuss the state-of-the-art SOTA policy gradient technique, trust region policy optimization (TRPO), by applying this method in various environments compared to another policy gradient method, the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), to explain their robust optimization, using this SOTA to gather experience data during various training phases after observing the impact of hyper-parameters on neural network performance.

Keywords: Deep neural networks, deep reinforcement learning, Proximal Policy Optimization, state-of-the-art, trust region policy optimization.

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Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

Abstract:

Government spending is categorized into consumption spending and capital spending. Three categories of private consumption are used: food consumption, nonfood consumption, and services consumption. The estimated model indicates substitution effects of government consumption spending on budget shares of private nonfood consumption and of government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption. However, the results do not indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the nonfood and the food consumption equates to reduce total private consumption. The concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (consumption spending and capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate their relationship by using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism. The study found no effect of government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP.

Keywords: Complementary effect, government capital spending, government consumption spending, private consumption on food, nonfood, and services, substitution effect, vector error correction mechanism.

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Authors: M.V Rajesh, Archana R, A Unnikrishnan, R Gopikakumari, Jeevamma Jacob

Abstract:

The System Identification problem looks for a suitably parameterized model, representing a given process. The parameters of the model are adjusted to optimize a performance function based on error between the given process output and identified process output. The linear system identification field is well established with many classical approaches whereas most of those methods cannot be applied for nonlinear systems. The problem becomes tougher if the system is completely unknown with only the output time series is available. It has been reported that the capability of Artificial Neural Network to approximate all linear and nonlinear input-output maps makes it predominantly suitable for the identification of nonlinear systems, where only the output time series is available. [1][2][4][5]. The work reported here is an attempt to implement few of the well known algorithms in the context of modeling of nonlinear systems, and to make a performance comparison to establish the relative merits and demerits.

Keywords: Multilayer neural networks, Radial Basis Functions, Clustering algorithm, Back Propagation training, Extended Kalmanfiltering, Mean Square Error, Nonlinear Modeling, Cramer RaoLower Bound.

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Authors: Ali M. Jawarneh, Ahmad S. AL-Shyyab

Abstract:

The purpose of this work is to present the potential of solar energy in Zarqa region. The solar radiation along year 2009 was obtained from Pyranometer which measures the global radiation over horizontal surfaces. Solar data in several different forms, over period of 5 minutes, hour-by-hour, daily and monthly data radiation have been presented. Briefly, the yearly global solar radiation in Zarqa is 7297.5 MJ/m2 (2027 kWh/m²) and the average annual solar radiation per day is 20 MJ/m2 (5.5 Kwh/m2). More specifically, the average annual solar radiation per day is 12.9 MJ/m2 (3.57 Kwh/m2) in winter and 25 MJ/m2 (7 Kwh/m2) in summer.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Pyranometer, Zarqa Region

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Authors: H. B. Kekre, Tanuja K. Sarode

Abstract:

This paper presents a very simple and efficient algorithm for codebook search, which reduces a great deal of computation as compared to the full codebook search. The algorithm is based on sorting and centroid technique for search. The results table shows the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in terms of computational complexity. In this paper we also introduce a new performance parameter named as Average fractional change in pixel value as we feel that it gives better understanding of the closeness of the image since it is related to the perception. This new performance parameter takes into consideration the average fractional change in each pixel value.

Keywords: Vector Quantization, Data Compression, Encoding, Searching.

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Authors: Salma Parvin, M. A. Alim

Abstract:

The convective and radiative heat transfer performance and entropy generation on forced convection through a direct absorption solar collector (DASC) is investigated numerically. Four different fluids, including Cu-water nanofluid, Al₂O₃-waternanofluid, TiO₂-waternanofluid, and pure water are used as the working fluid. Entropy production has been taken into account in addition to the collector efficiency and heat transfer enhancement. Penalty finite element method with Galerkin’s weighted residual technique is used to solve the governing non-linear partial differential equations. Numerical simulations are performed for the variation of mass flow rate. The outcomes are presented in the form of isotherms, average output temperature, the average Nusselt number, collector efficiency, average entropy generation, and Bejan number. The results present that the rate of heat transfer and collector efficiency enhance significantly for raising the values of m up to a certain range.

Keywords: DASC, forced convection, mass flow rate, nanofluid.

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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Authors: S. Khosravi, A. Afshar, F. Barazandeh

Abstract:

In this study we propose a novel monitor hydraulic automatic gauge control (HAGC) system based on fuzzy feedforward controller. This is used in the development of cold rolling mill automation system to improve the quality of cold strip. According to features/ properties of entry steel strip like its average yield stress, width of strip, and desired exit thickness, this controller realizes the compensation for the exit thickness error. The traditional methods of adjusting the roller position, can-t tolerate the variance in the entry steel strip. The proposed method uses a mathematical model of the system together with the expert knowledge to perform this adjustment while minimizing the effect of the stated problem. In order to improve the speed of the controller in rejecting disturbances introduced by entry strip thickness variations, expert knowledge is added as a feed-forward term to the HAGC system. Simulation results for the application of the proposed controller to a real cold mill show that the exit strip quality is highly improved.

Keywords: Fuzzy feed-forward controller, monitor HAGC system, dynamic mathematical model, entry strip thickness deviation compensation

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Authors: Mazidah Tajjudin, Mohd Hezri Fazalul Rahiman, Norhashim Mohd Arshad, Ramli Adnan

Abstract:

In process control applications, above 90% of the controllers are of PID type. This paper proposed a robust PI controller with fractional-order integrator. The PI parameters were obtained using classical Ziegler-Nichols rules but enhanced with the application of error filter cascaded to the fractional-order PI. The controller was applied on steam temperature process that was described by FOPDT transfer function. The process can be classified as lag dominating process with very small relative dead-time. The proposed control scheme was compared with other PI controller tuned using Ziegler-Nichols and AMIGO rules. Other PI controller with fractional-order integrator known as F-MIGO was also considered. All the controllers were subjected to set point change and load disturbance tests. The performance was measured using Integral of Squared Error (ISE) and Integral of Control Signal (ICO). The proposed controller produced best performance for all the tests with the least ISE index.

Keywords: PID controller, fractional-order PID controller, PI control tuning, steam temperature control, Ziegler-Nichols tuning.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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Authors: Xun Ge

Abstract:

Recently, X. Ge and J. Qian investigated some relations between higher mathematics scores and calculus scores (resp. linear algebra scores, probability statistics scores) for Chinese university students. Based on rough-set theory, they established an information system S = (U,CuD,V, f). In this information system, higher mathematics score was taken as a decision attribute and calculus score, linear algebra score, probability statistics score were taken as condition attributes. They investigated importance of each condition attribute with respective to decision attribute and strength of each condition attribute supporting decision attribute. In this paper, we give further investigations for this issue. Based on the above information system S = (U, CU D, V, f), we analyze the decision rules between condition and decision granules. For each x E U, we obtain support (resp. strength, certainty factor, coverage factor) of the decision rule C —>x D, where C —>x D is the decision rule induced by x in S = (U, CU D, V, f). Results of this paper gives new analysis of on higher mathematics scores for Chinese university students, which can further lead Chinese university students to raise higher mathematics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination.

Keywords: Rough set, support, strength, certainty factor, coverage factor.

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Authors: Chang Soo Kang, In Ho Im, Sergey Churayev, Timour Paltashev

Abstract:

This paper describes the design of new method of propagation delay measurement in micro and nanostructures during characterization of ASIC standard library cell. Providing more accuracy timing information about library cell to the design team we can improve a quality of timing analysis inside of ASIC design flow process. Also, this information could be very useful for semiconductor foundry team to make correction in technology process. By comparison of the propagation delay in the CMOS element and result of analog SPICE simulation. It was implemented as digital IP core for semiconductor manufacturing process. Specialized method helps to observe the propagation time delay in one element of the standard-cell library with up-to picoseconds accuracy and less. Thus, the special useful solutions for VLSI schematic to parameters extraction, basic cell layout verification, design simulation and verification are announced.

Keywords: phase error accumulation methodology, gatepropagation delay, Processor Testing, MEMS Testing

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Authors: Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Olga Valerevna Kolesnikova, Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova

Abstract:

We regard forecasting of energy consumption by private production areas of a large industrial facility as well as by the facility itself. As for production areas, the forecast is made based on empirical dependencies of the specific energy consumption and the production output. As for the facility itself, implementation of the task to minimize the energy consumption forecasting error is based on adjustment of the facility’s actual energy consumption values evaluated with the metering device and the total design energy consumption of separate production areas of the facility. The suggested procedure of optimal energy consumption was tested based on the actual data of core product output and energy consumption by a group of workshops and power plants of the large iron and steel facility. Test results show that implementation of this procedure gives the mean accuracy of energy consumption forecasting for winter 2014 of 0.11% for the group of workshops and 0.137% for the power plants.

Keywords: Energy consumption, energy consumption forecasting error, energy efficiency, forecasting accuracy, forecasting.

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Authors: Yoshiaki Shikata, Nobutane Hanayama

Abstract:

We present a prioritized, limited multi-server processor sharing (PS) system where each server has various capacities, and N (≥2) priority classes are allowed in each PS server. In each prioritized, limited server, different service ratio is assigned to each class request, and the number of requests to be processed is limited to less than a certain number. Routing strategies of such prioritized, limited multi-server PS systems that take into account the capacity of each server are also presented, and a performance evaluation procedure for these strategies is discussed. Practical performance measures of these strategies, such as loss probability, mean waiting time, and mean sojourn time, are evaluated via simulation. In the PS server, at the arrival (or departure) of a request, the extension (shortening) of the remaining sojourn time of each request receiving service can be calculated by using the number of requests of each class and the priority ratio. Utilising a simulation program which executes these events and calculations, the performance of the proposed prioritized, limited multi-server PS rule can be analyzed. From the evaluation results, most suitable routing strategy for the loss or waiting system is clarified.

Keywords: Processor sharing, multi-server, various capacity, N priority classes, routing strategy, loss probability, mean sojourn time, mean waiting time, simulation.

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Authors: N. Z. A. Hamid, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly Ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: Chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method.

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Authors: Chuan-Ching Sue, Shi-Zhou Chen, Ting-Yu Huang

Abstract:

Dynamic bandwidth allocation in EPONs can be generally separated into inter-ONU scheduling and intra-ONU scheduling. In our previous work, the active intra-ONU scheduling (AS) utilizes multiple queue reports (QRs) in each report message to cooperate with the inter-ONU scheduling and makes the granted bandwidth fully utilized without leaving unused slot remainder (USR). This scheme successfully solves the USR problem originating from the inseparability of Ethernet frame. However, without proper setting of threshold value in AS, the number of QRs constrained by the IEEE 802.3ah standard is not enough, especially in the unbalanced traffic environment. This limitation may be solved by enlarging the threshold value. The large threshold implies the large gap between the adjacent QRs, thus resulting in the large difference between the best granted bandwidth and the real granted bandwidth. In this paper, we integrate AS with a cooperative prediction mechanism and distribute multiple QRs to reduce the penalty brought by the prediction error. Furthermore, to improve the QoS and save the usage of queue reports, the highest priority (EF) traffic which comes during the waiting time is granted automatically by OLT and is not considered in the requested bandwidth of ONU. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme has better performance metrics in terms of bandwidth utilization and average delay for different classes of packets.

Keywords: EPON, Inter-ONU and Intra-ONU scheduling, Prediction, Unused slot remainder

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Authors: Ali Ghaffari, Mansour Nikkhah Bahrami, Hesam Parsa

Abstract:

In this paper a comprehensive model of a fossil fueled power plant (FFPP) is developed in order to evaluate the performance of a newly designed turbine follower controller. Considering the drawbacks of previous works, an overall model is developed to minimize the error between each subsystem model output and the experimental data obtained at the actual power plant. The developed model is organized in two main subsystems namely; Boiler and Turbine. Considering each FFPP subsystem characteristics, different modeling approaches are developed. For economizer, evaporator, superheater and reheater, first order models are determined based on principles of mass and energy conservation. Simulations verify the accuracy of the developed models. Due to the nonlinear characteristics of attemperator, a new model, based on a genetic-fuzzy systems utilizing Pittsburgh approach is developed showing a promising performance vis-à-vis those derived with other methods like ANFIS. The optimization constraints are handled utilizing penalty functions. The effect of increasing the number of rules and membership functions on the performance of the proposed model is also studied and evaluated. The turbine model is developed based on the equation of adiabatic expansion. Parameters of all evaluated models are tuned by means of evolutionary algorithms. Based on the developed model a fuzzy PI controller is developed. It is then successfully implemented in the turbine follower control strategy of the plant. In this control strategy instead of keeping control parameters constant, they are adjusted on-line with regard to the error and the error rate. It is shown that the response of the system improves significantly. It is also shown that fuel consumption decreases considerably.

Keywords: Attemperator, Evolutionary algorithms, Fossil fuelled power plant (FFPP), Fuzzy set theory, Gain scheduling

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

Abstract:

Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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