Search results for: Concept development

Authors: S. S. Rwanga, J. M. Ndambuki, Y. Woyessa

Abstract:

Development of a groundwater management model is an important step in the exploitation and management of any groundwater aquifer as it assists in the long-term sustainable planning of the resource. The current study was conducted in Central Limpopo province of South Africa with the overall objective of determining how much water can be withdrawn from the aquifer without producing nonreversible impacts on the groundwater quantity, hence developing a model which can sustainably protect the aquifer. The development was done through the computation of Groundwater Sustainability Index (GSI). Values of GSI close to unity and above indicated overexploitation. In this study, an index of 0.8 was considered as overexploitation. The results indicated that there is potential for higher abstraction rates compared to the current abstraction rates. GSI approach can be used in the management of groundwater aquifer to sustainably develop the resource and also provides water managers and policy makers with fundamental information on where future water developments can be carried out.

Keywords: Development, groundwater, groundwater sustainability index, model.

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

Active Vibration Control (AVC) is an important problem in structures. One of the ways to tackle this problem is to make the structure smart, adaptive and self-controlling. The objective of active vibration control is to reduce the vibration of a system by automatic modification of the system-s structural response. This paper features the modeling and design of a Periodic Output Feedback (POF) control technique for the active vibration control of a flexible Timoshenko cantilever beam for a multivariable case with 2 inputs and 2 outputs by retaining the first 2 dominant vibratory modes using the smart structure concept. The entire structure is modeled in state space form using the concept of piezoelectric theory, Timoshenko beam theory, Finite Element Method (FEM) and the state space techniques. Simulations are performed in MATLAB. The effect of placing the sensor / actuator at 2 finite element locations along the length of the beam is observed. The open loop responses, closed loop responses and the tip displacements with and without the controller are obtained and the performance of the smart system is evaluated for active vibration control.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko theory, Euler-Bernoulli theory, Periodic output feedback control, Finite Element Method, State space model, Vibration control, Multivariable system, Linear Matrix Inequality

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Authors: Paraskevi Theodorou, Apostolos Meliones

Abstract:

In the context of the development process of two assistive navigation mobile apps for blind and visually impaired people (BVI) an extensive qualitative analysis of the requirements of potential users has been conducted. The analysis was based on interviews with BVIs and aimed to elicit not only their needs with respect to autonomous navigation but also their preferences on specific features of the apps under development. The elicited requirements were structured into four main categories, namely, requirements concerning the capabilities, functionality and usability of the apps, as well as compatibility requirements with respect to other apps and services. The main categories were then further divided into nine sub-categories. This classification, along with its content, aims to become a useful tool for the researcher or the developer who is involved in the development of digital services for BVI.

Keywords: Accessibility, assistive mobile apps, blind and visually impaired people, user requirements analysis.

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Authors: Samar F. Elkasrawy

Abstract:

Museums play a significant role in their communities with respect to culture, history, environment, and social development. They are considered as important sites for families, tourists, school groups, cultural visitors and individuals, looking to enjoy, learn and expand their horizons. Aim of audience development programs is to support individuals and organizations to work together to deliver messages that will raise museums' profile for both existing and potential visitors. They recognize the particular role that museums play for communities, the audiences they seek to reach, the experience they seek to offer and the extent and nature of their collections. This study aims at using both the qualitative and quantitative approach to explore the important role that audience development programs in museums can play in raising awareness in their communities concerning cultural heritage preservation and tourism. The Alexandria National Museum is considered as a valuable case study. In depth interviews with museum managers and staff was conducted as well as an online questionnaire. The study also includes suggestions and guidelines for applying audience development programs in Egyptian museums.

Keywords: Cultural heritage, tourism and preservation awareness, audience development programs, Alexandria National Museum.

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Authors: Kuyucu Helvacioglu Asli Deniz, Tektas Arzu

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European Union candidate status provides a strong motivation for decision-making in the candidate countries in shaping the regional development policy where there is an envisioned transfer of power from center to the periphery. The process of Europeanization anticipates the candidate countries configure their regional institutional templates in the context of the requirements of the European Union policies and introduces new instruments of incentive framework of enlargement to be employed in regional development schemes. It is observed that the contribution of the local actors to the decision making in the design of the allocation architectures enhances the efficiency of the funds and increases the positive effects of the projects funded under the regional development objectives. This study aims at exploring the performances of the three regional development grant schemes in Turkey, established and allocated under the pre-accession process with a special emphasis given to the roles of the national and local actors in decision-making for regional development. Efficiency analyses have been conducted using the DEA methodology which has proved to be a superior method in comparative efficiency and benchmarking measurements. The findings of this study as parallel to similar international studies, provides that the participation of the local actors to the decision-making in funding contributes both to the quality and the efficiency of the projects funded under the EU schemes.

Keywords: Efficiency, European Union Funds, RegionalDevelopment, Turkey

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Authors: Vijayalakshmy Periaswamy S., Kevin McDaid

Abstract:

Testing accounts for the major percentage of technical contribution in the software development process. Typically, it consumes more than 50 percent of the total cost of developing a piece of software. The selection of software tests is a very important activity within this process to ensure the software reliability requirements are met. Generally tests are run to achieve maximum coverage of the software code and very little attention is given to the achieved reliability of the software. Using an existing methodology, this paper describes how to use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to select unit tests based on their contribution to the reliability of the module under consideration. In particular the work examines how the approach can enhance test-first development by assessing the quality of test suites resulting from this development methodology and providing insight into additional tests that can significantly reduce the achieved reliability. In this way the method can produce an optimal selection of inputs and the order in which the tests are executed to maximize the software reliability. To illustrate this approach, a belief network is constructed for a modern software system incorporating the expert opinion, expressed through probabilities of the relative quality of the elements of the software, and the potential effectiveness of the software tests. The steps involved in constructing the Bayesian Network are explained as is a method to allow for the test suite resulting from test-driven development.

Keywords: Software testing, Test Driven Development, Bayesian Belief Networks.

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Authors: Luis F. Beltrán Morales, Felipe García-Rodríguez, Daniel LLuch Cota, German Ponce Díaz, Victor Sevilla Unda

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Environmental conflicts produced by economic development and natural resources exploitation, are discussed. Main causes of conflicts in developing countries were shown to arise from geographically external investments, inefficiency of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), and the lack of communication between government and Non-Government Organizations (NGOs). Citizen participation can only intervene during late stages of the EIA, which is considered as one of the main shortcomings in satisfying demands of local people.

Keywords: Economic Development, Environmental Conflicts, Citizen Participation, NGOs.

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Authors: B.A.Gobin, R.K.Subramanian

Abstract:

This paper gives an overview of the mapping mechanism of SEAM-a methodology for the automatic generation of knowledge models and its mapping onto Java codes. It discusses the rules that will be used to map the different components in the knowledge model automatically onto Java classes, properties and methods. The aim of developing this mechanism is to help in the creation of a prototype which will be used to validate the knowledge model which has been generated automatically. It will also help to link the modeling phase with the implementation phase as existing knowledge engineering methodologies do not provide for proper guidelines for the transition from the knowledge modeling phase to development phase. This will decrease the development overheads associated to the development of Knowledge Based Systems.

Keywords: KBS, OWL, ontology, knowledge models

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Authors: Olugbara O.O., Adebiyi A.A.

Abstract:

Most standard software development methodologies are often not applied to software projects in many developing countries of the world. The approach generally practice is close to what eXtreme Programming (XP) is likely promoting, just keep coding and testing as the requirement evolves. XP is an agile software process development methodology that has inherent capability for improving efficiency of Business Software Development (BSD). XP can facilitate Business-to-Development (B2D) relationship due to its customer-oriented advocate. From practitioner point of view, we applied XP to BSD and result shows that customer involvement has positive impact on productivity, but can as well frustrate the success of the project. In an effort to promote software engineering practice in developing countries of Africa, we present the experiment performed, lessons learned, problems encountered and solution adopted in applying XP methodology to BSD.

Keywords: Requirements engineering, Requirements elicitation, Extreme programming, Mobile Work force

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Authors: Jamil Mikhail Yahaya, Ahmad Nurulazam Md Zain, Mageswary Karpudewan

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This paper highlights the controversial socioscientific issues and their misconceptions in Nigeria as well as in some other low literate societies around the world. It states the relevance of the issues or problems in Nigeria, which might be neutral or absent in other countries. The need to understand the issues and how such an understanding can contribute to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is also being discussed. The paper concludes by suggesting the responsibilities of science teachers to remove the misconceptions surrounding the socioscientific issues.

Keywords: Sosioscientific issues, Millennium development goals, Science teachers.

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Authors: Christoph Speer

Abstract:

Decentralized ventilation systems should combine a small and economical design with high aerodynamic and thermal efficiency. The Counter Flow Heat Recovery Fan (CHRF) provides the ability to meet these requirements by using only one cross flow fan with a large number of blades to generate both airflows and which simultaneously acts as a regenerative counter flow heat exchanger. The successful development of the first laboratory prototype has shown the potential of this ventilation system. Occurring condensate on the surfaces of the fan blades during the cold and dry season can be recovered through the characteristic mode of operation. Hence the CHRF provides the possibility to avoid the need for frost protection and condensate drain. Through the implementation of system-specific solutions for flow balancing and summer bypass the required functionality is assured. The scalability of the CHRF concept allows the use in renovation as well as in new buildings from single-room devices through to systems for office buildings. High aerodynamic and thermal efficiency and the lower number of required mechatronic components should enable a reduction in investment as well as operating costs. The rotor is the key component of the system, the requirements and possible implementation variants are presented.

Keywords: CHRF, counter flow heat recovery fan, decentralized ventilation system, renovation.

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Authors: Е. V. Kutsina, S. A. Tarasova

Abstract:

In this article we present a methodology which enables preschool and primary school unlanguaged children to remember words, phrases and texts with the help of graphic signs - letters, syllables and words. Reading for a child becomes a support for speech development. Teaching is based on the principle "from simple to complex", "a letter - a syllable - a word - a proposal - a text." Availability of multi-level texts allows using this methodology for working with children who have different levels of speech development.

Keywords: Alalia, analytic-synthetic method, development of coherent speech, formation of vocabulary, learning to read, , sentence formation, three-level stories, unlanguaged children.

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Authors: M. Chavleishvili

Abstract:

The paper presents the analysis of the current situation of agricultural development in Georgia. The investment environment that supports development of the agricultural sector is evaluated and the key priorities are identified. The analysis of the projects already implemented with state and EU support, as well as those that are being currently implemented is presented. The policy and the programs supporting development of agricultural sector are analyzed. Based on an analysis of the evaluations of experts and the primary accounting documents, the outcomes of investment programs, their advantages and disadvantages, are studied. Through identifying investment programs in the agricultural sector of Georgia, corresponding conclusions are made, based on which some recommendations are developed.

Keywords: Agriculture, investments, investment programs, projects.

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Authors: Robert Grzeszczak, Magdalena Gniadzik

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The article deals with one of the most significant issues concerning the functioning of the internal market of the European Union – the free movement of workers and free movement of persons. The purpose is to identify the political and legal effects of the “renationalisation process” on the EU and its Member States. The concept of renationalisation is expressed through Member States’ aim to verify the relationship with the EU. The tendency is more visible in the public opinion of several MS’s of the ‘EU core’ and may be confirmed by the changes applied by the regulatory body. The thesis for the article is the return of renationalisation tendencies in the area of the Single Market, which is supported by, among others, an open criticism of the foundations of EU integration or considerations on withdrawal from the EU by some MS. This analysis will focus primarily on the effects that renationalisation may have on the free movement of persons. The free movement of persons is one of the key issues for the development of the European integration. It is still subject to theoretical reflections, new doubts and practical issues. The latest developments in politics, law and jurisprudence demonstrate the need to reflect on the attempts to redefine certain principles regarding migrant EU workers and their protection against nationality-based discrimination.

Keywords: European law, European Union, common market, free movement of workers, posting of workers, case law.

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Authors: Lara F. Horani

Abstract:

Design is one of the most important stages in the process of product development. Product design has experienced significant changes over the years ranging from concentrating on cost and performance to combining economic, environmental and social considerations in customer requirements. Its evolution is in accordance with rapidly changing technology, economic situations, and climate change and environmental issues, as well as social context. Within product design, sustainability is a concept that balances economic, social and environmental aspects. This research aims to express changes in customer requirements over time from the viewpoint of sustainable design. It does so by systematically reviewing a broad scope of sustainable design literature. There is a need for a model to consider the changes that take place in customer requirements over time to build a successful relationship with customers which has been presented. Today’s literature does very little to even mention it, let alone present any progress in it. Systematic literature reviews are conducted primarily to: summarize the existing literature around a subject, highlight commonalities to build consensus, illuminate differences, identify gaps that can be filled, provide a background to position future research, and build a framework that can help designers meet the challenges of sustainable design.

Keywords: Sustainable design, customer requirements for sustainable design, changing customer requirements for sustainable design, systematic literature reviews.

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Authors: Leila Amjad, Mahsa Shafighi

Abstract:

The role of the pollen grain, with to the reproductive process of higher plants, is to deliver the spermatic cells to the embryo sac for egg fertilization. The aim of this project was study the effect of electromagnetic fields on structure and pollen grains development in Chenopodium album. Anthers of Chenopodium album L. were collected at different stages of development from control (without electromagnetic field) and plants grown at 10m from the field sources. Structure and development of pollen grains were studied and compared. The studying pollen structure by Light and Scanning electron microscopy showed that electromagnetic fields reduction of pollen grains number and male sterility, thus , in some anthers, pollen grains were attached together and deformed compared to control ones. The data presented suggest that prolonged exposures of plants to magnetic field may cause different biological effects at the cellular tissue and organ levels.

Keywords: Electromagnetic fields, pollen, Chenopodium albumL.

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Authors: Nagore Guerra Bilbao, Clemente Lobato Fraile

Abstract:

Mentoring is provided by professionals with a higher level of experience and competence as part of the professional development of a university faculty. This paper explores the characteristics of the mentoring provided by those teachers participating in the development of an active methodology program run at the University of the Basque Country: to examine and to analyze mentors’ performance with the aim of providing empirical evidence regarding its value as a lifelong learning strategy for teaching staff. A total of 183 teachers were trained during the first three programs. The analysis method uses a coding technique and is based on flexible, systematic guidelines for gathering and analyzing qualitative data. The results have confirmed the conception of mentoring as a methodological innovation in higher education. In short, university teachers in general assessed the mentoring they received positively, considering it to be a valid, useful strategy in their professional development. They highlighted the methodological expertise of their mentor and underscored how they monitored the learning process of the active method and provided guidance and advice when necessary. Finally, they also drew attention to traits such as availability, personal commitment and flexibility in. However, a minority critique is pointed to some aspects of the performance of some mentors.

Keywords: Higher education, Mentoring, Professional development, University teachers.

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Authors: Whee Yen Wong, Chan Wai Lee, Kim Yeow Tshai

Abstract:

Producing IT products/services required carefully designed. IT development process is intangible and labour intensive. Making optimal use of available resources, both soft (knowledge, skill-set etc.) and hard (computer system, ancillary equipment etc.), is vital if IT development is to achieve sensible economical advantages. Apart from the norm of Project Life Cycle and System Development Life Cycle (SDLC), there is an urgent need to establish a general yet widely acceptable guideline on the most effective and efficient way to precede an IT project in the broader view of Product Life Cycle. The current paper proposes such a framework with two major areas of concern: (1) an integration of IT Products and IT Services within an existing IT Process architecture and; (2) how IT Product and IT Services are built into the framework of Product Life Cycle, Project Life Cycle and SDLC.

Keywords: Mapping of Quality Relationship, IT Processes/IT Products/IT Services, Product Life Cycle, System Development Life Cycle.

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Authors: N. Kulakova

Abstract:

Thisresearch paper is dedicated to an actual issue in Latvia and in the whole European Union – development of the secondary materials management. The goal of this paper is to research the development of the secondary materials management in Latvia as a result to point out its main positive aspects and problems. In this research paper the author regards following issues: significance of the secondary materials management, current situation of the waste generation and utilization in Latvia comparing with other EU Member States, main problems and positive aspects of the secondary materials management in Latvia. The research author concludes that in last ten years a great work is done to develop the secondary materials market. Nevertheless following improvements are necessary: implementation of the packaging deposit system, development of the separate waste collection, increasing of the recycling capacity.

Keywords: sustainable development, secondary materials, separate waste collection, packaging deposit system.

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

Abstract:

Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: Activity-based cost estimating, Cost estimation, ETICS, Life cycle costing.

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Authors: Widodo Budiharto, Michael Yoseph Ricky, Ro'fah Nur Rachmawati

Abstract:

The rapid development of the BlackBerry games industry and its development goals were not just for entertainment, but also used for educational of students interactively. Unfortunately the development of adaptive educational games on BlackBerry in Indonesian language that interesting and entertaining for learning process is very limited. This paper shows the research of development of novel adaptive educational games for students who can adjust the difficulty level of games based on the ability of the user, so that it can motivate students to continue to play these games. We propose a method where these games can adjust the level of difficulty, based on the assessment of the results of previous problems using neural networks with three inputs in the form of percentage correct, the speed of answer and interest mode of games (animation / lessons) and 1 output. The experimental results are presented and show the adaptive games are running well on mobile devices based on BlackBerry platform

Keywords: Adaptive games, neural networks, mobile games, BlackBerry

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Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

Abstract:

This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: Thailand tourism, maximum entropy bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information.

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Authors: Mehmet Altinoz

Abstract:

Enterprises need a strategic plan to retain their skillful employees and provide their career management, sustain their existence, to have growth and leadership qualities, to reach the objectives to increase the value of the enterprise and to not to be affected from changing demographic structure. In the cases when the long term career expectations of skillful employees are in integrity with the enterprise’s interests, skill management process is directly related to the career management. With a long term plan, the enterprises should cover the labor force need that may arise in the future by using systematic career development programs and be prepared against developments for all times. Skill management is considered as a practice with which career mobility is planned for the skillful employee to be prepared for high level positions. Career planning is the planning of an employee’s progress or promotion within an organization for which he works by developing his knowledge, skills, abilities and motives. Career planning is considered as an individual’s planning his future and the position which he wants to have, the area which he want to work in, the objectives which he want to reach. With the aim of contributing the abovementioned discussion process, career management concept and its perception manner are examined in this study in a comparative manner.

Keywords: Skill management, career management, skill, back up, human resources management.

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Authors: Mingaleva Zhanna, Kapuskina Tatiana

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The article touches upon questions of information security in Russian Economy. It covers theoretical bases of information security and causes of its development. The theory is proved by the analysis of business activities and the main tendencies of information security development. Perm region has been chosen as the bases for the analysis, being the fastestdeveloping region that uses methods of information security in managing it economy. As a result of the study the authors of the given article have formulated their own vision of the problem of information security in various branches of economy and stated prospects of information security development and its growing role in Russian economy

Keywords: security of business, management of information security, institutional analyses.

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Authors: Jawad Alzeer

Abstract:

Cultural setup is varied from country to country and nation to nation, but the ability to adapt successfully to the new cultural setup may pave the way toward the development of cultural intelligence. Overcoming differences may require to build up our personality with the ability to learn, exchange thoughts, and have a constructive dream. Adaptation processes can be accelerated if we effectively utilize our cultural diversity. This can be done through a unified body or society; people with common goals can collectively work to satisfy their values. Narrowing the gap between developed and developing countries is of prime importance. Many international organizations are trying to resolve these issues by rational and peaceful means. Failing to understand the cultural differences, mentalities, strengths and weaknesses of developed and developing countries led to the collapse of many partnerships. Establishment of a neutral body influenced by developed countries intellectuality and developing countries personality may offer a better understanding and reasonable solutions, suggestions, advice that may assist in narrowing gaps and promote-strengthening relationship between developed and developing countries. The key issues, goals, and potential concepts associated with initiating Swiss scientific society for developing countries as a model to facilitate integration of highly skilled scientists are discussed.

Keywords: Cultural diversity, developing countries, integration, Switzerland.

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Authors: Danielle Reichel, Antoine Druilhe, Tuan Dang

Abstract:

Traditional development of wireless sensor network mote is generally based on SoC1 platform. Such method of development faces three main drawbacks: lack of flexibility in terms of development due to low resource and rigid architecture of SoC; low capability of evolution and portability versus performance if specific micro-controller architecture features are used; and the rapid obsolescence of micro-controller comparing to the long lifetime of power plants or any industrial installations. To overcome these drawbacks, we have explored a new approach of development of wireless sensor network mote using a hybrid FPGA technology. The application of such approach is illustrated through the implementation of an innovative wireless sensor network protocol called OCARI.

Keywords: Hybrid FPGA, Embedded system, Mote, flexibility, durability, OCARI protocol, SoC, Wireless Sensor Network

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Authors: Nazira Kakulia, Tsotne Zhghenti

Abstract:

The institutional development is one of the actual topics in economics science. New trends and directions of institutional development mostly depend on its structure and framework. Transformation of institutions is an important problem for every economy, especially for developing countries. The first research goal is to determine the importance and interactions between different institutions in Georgia. Using World Governance Indicators and Economic Freedom indexes it can be calculated the size for each institutional group. The second aim of this research is to evaluate Georgian institutional backwardness in comparison to other post-communist economies. We use statistical and econometric methods to evaluate the difference between the levels of institutional development in Georgia and in leading post-communist economies. Within the scope of this research, major findings are coefficients which are an assessment of their deviation (i.e. lag) of institutional indicators between Georgia and leading post-communist country which should be compared. The last part of the article includes analysis around the selected coefficients.

Keywords: Post-communist transition, institutions, economic growth, institutional development.

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Authors: Jin hui Kim, Hyung kwan Cho, Ji won Moon, Hoon Chang

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The purpose of this study is comparing and analysing of the financial characteristics for development methods of the urban development project in the established area, focusing on the multi-level replotting. Analysis showed that the type of the lowest expenditure was 'combination type of group-land and multi-level replotting' and the type of the highest profitability was 'multi-level replotting type'. But 'multi-level replotting type' has still risk of amount of cost for the additional architecture. In addition, we subdivided standard amount for liquidation of replotting and analysed income-expenditure flow. Analysis showed that both of 'multi-level replotting type' and 'combination type of group-land and multi-level replotting' improved profitability of project and property change ratio. However, when the standard was under a certain amount, amount of original property for the replotting was increased exponentially, and profitability of project.

Keywords: Urban development, multi-level replotting, financial characteristics, expropriation type, combination type, urban meteorology.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: I. Kontorovich, R. Zazkis

Abstract:

We present a framework of researcher knowledge development in conducting a study in mathematics education. The key components of the framework are: knowledge germane to conducting a particular study, processes of knowledge accumulation, and catalyzing filters that influence a researcher decision making. The components of the framework originated from a confluence between constructs and theories in Mathematics Education, Higher Education and Sociology. Drawing on a self-reflective interview with a leading researcher in mathematics education, Professor Michèle Artigue, we illustrate how the framework can be utilized in data analysis. Criteria for framework evaluation are discussed.

Keywords: Community of practice, knowledge development, mathematics education research, researcher knowledge.

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