Search results for: Chronological and Thematic Information Representation.

Authors: Kamaljit Kaur, Kirti Minhas, Neha Mehan, Namita Kakkar

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Software complexity metrics are used to predict critical information about reliability and maintainability of software systems. Object oriented software development requires a different approach to software complexity metrics. Object Oriented Software Metrics can be broadly classified into static and dynamic metrics. Static Metrics give information at the code level whereas dynamic metrics provide information on the actual runtime. In this paper we will discuss the various complexity metrics, and the comparison between static and dynamic complexity.

Keywords: Static Complexity, Dynamic Complexity, Halstead Metric, Mc Cabe's Metric.

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Authors: Toshiyuki Satoh, Hiroki Hara, Naoki Saito, Jun-ya Nagase, Norihiko Saga

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This paper addresses a control system design for a table drive system based on the disturbance observer (DOB)-based predictive functional critical control (PFCC). To empower the previously developed DOB-based PFC to handle constraints on controlled outputs, we propose to take a critical control approach. To this end, we derive the transfer function representation of the PFC controller and yield a detailed design procedure. The effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed through an experimental evaluation.

Keywords: Critical control, disturbance observer, mechatronics, motion control, predictive functional control, table drive systems.

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Authors: Jaouadi Ikram, Machhout Mohsen

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The development of a quantum key distribution (QKD) system on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) platform is the subject of this paper. A quantum cryptographic protocol is designed based on the properties of quantum information and the characteristics of FPGAs. The proposed protocol performs key extraction, reconciliation, error correction, and privacy amplification tasks to generate a perfectly secret final key. We modeled the presence of the spy in our system with a strategy to reveal some of the exchanged information without being noticed. Using an FPGA card with a 100 MHz clock frequency, we have demonstrated the evolution of the error rate as well as the amounts of mutual information (between the two interlocutors and that of the spy) passing from one step to another in the key generation process.

Keywords: QKD, BB84, protocol, cryptography, FPGA, key, security, communication.

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Authors: Kemkanit Sanyanunthana

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The purpose of this research is to study the management system of information technology which supports the education of five private universities in Thailand, according to the case studies which have been developing their qualities and standards of management and education by service provision of information technology to support the excellence performance. The concept to connect information technology with a suitable system has been created by information technology administrators for development, as a system that can be used throughout the organizations to help reach the utmost benefits of using all resources. Hence, the researcher as a person who has been performing these duties within higher education is interested to do this research by selecting the Control Objective for Information and Related Technology 5 (COBIT 5) for the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award (MBNQA) of America, or the National Award which applies the concept of Total Quality Management (TQM) to the organization evaluation. Such evaluation is called the Education Criteria for Performance Excellence (EdPEx) focuses on studying and comparing education quality development for excellent performance using COBIT 5 in terms of information technology to study the problems and obstacles of the investigation process for an information technology system, which is considered as an instrument to drive all organizations to reach the excellence performance of the information technology, and to be the model of evaluation and analysis of the process to be in accordance with the strategic plans of the information technology in the universities. This research is conducted in the form of descriptive and survey research according to the case studies. The data collection were carried out by using questionnaires through the administrators working related to the information technology field, and the research documents related to the change management as the main study. The research can be concluded that the performance based on the APO domain process (ALIGN, PLAN AND ORGANISE) of the COBIT 5 standard frame, which emphasizes concordant governance and management of strategic plans for the organizations, could reach only 95%. This might be because of some restrictions such as organizational cultures; therefore, the researcher has studied and analyzed the management of information technology in universities as a whole, under the organizational structures, to reach the performance in accordance with the overall APO domain which would affect the determined strategic plans to be able to develop based on the excellence performance of information technology, and to apply the risk management system at the organizational level into every performance process which would develop the work effectiveness for the resources management of information technology to reach the utmost benefits. 

Keywords: COBIT 5, APO, EdPEx Criteria, MBNQA.

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Authors: Brigitte Rafael, Stefan M. Oertl

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Music segmentation is a key issue in music information retrieval (MIR) as it provides an insight into the internal structure of a composition. Structural information about a composition can improve several tasks related to MIR such as searching and browsing large music collections, visualizing musical structure, lyric alignment, and music summarization. The authors of this paper present the MTSSM framework, a twolayer framework for the multi-track segmentation of symbolic music. The strength of this framework lies in the combination of existing methods for local track segmentation and the application of global structure information spanning via multiple tracks. The first layer of the MTSSM uses various string matching techniques to detect the best candidate segmentations for each track of a multi-track composition independently. The second layer combines all single track results and determines the best segmentation for each track in respect to the global structure of the composition.

Keywords: Pattern Recognition, Music Information Retrieval, Machine Learning.

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Authors: Nikolai Krainiukov, Boris Melnikov

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We study the properties of maximal prefix codes. The codes have many applications in computer science, theory of formal languages, data processing and data classification. Our approaches to study use finite state automata (so-called flower automata) for the representation of prefix codes. An important task is the decomposition of prefix codes into prime prefix codes (factors). We discuss properties of such prefix code decompositions. A linear time algorithm is designed to find the prime decomposition. We used the GAP computer algebra system, which allows us to perform algebraic operations for free semigroups, monoids and automata.

Keywords: Maximal prefix code, regular languages, flower automata, prefix code decomposing.

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Authors: Waralak Vongdoiwang Siricharoen, Nattanun Siricharoen

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The objectives of this study are to determine the role of media that influence the values, attitudes and behaviors of Thai youths. Analytical qualitative research techniques were used for this purpose. Data collection based techniques was used which were individual interviews and focus group discussions with journalists, sample of high school and university students, and parents. The results show that “Social Media" is still the most popular media for Thai youths. It is also still in the hands of the marketing business and it can motivate Thai youths to do so many things. The main reasons of media exposure are to find quality information that they want quickly, get satisfaction and can use social media to get more exciting and to build communities. They believe that the need for media and information literacy skills is defined as making judgments, personal integrity, training of family and the behavior of close friends.

Keywords: Media and Information Literacy, Making Judgments, Personal integrity, Behavior of close friends

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejía, Jenny Paola Forero Pachón, Luis Carlos Gómez Flórez

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Action research is a qualitative research methodology, which leads the researcher to delve into the problems of a community in order to understand its needs in depth and finally, to propose actions that lead to a change of social paradigm. Although this methodology had its beginnings in the human sciences, it has attracted increasing interest and acceptance in the field of information systems research since the 1990s. The countless possibilities offered nowadays by the use of Information Technologies (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities have meant a change of social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. According to this, governments, large corporations, small entrepreneurs and in general, organizations of all kinds are using IT to virtualize their processes, taking them from the physical environment to the digital environment. However, there is a potential risk for organizations related with exposing valuable information without an appropriate framework for protecting it. This paper shows progress in the development of a methodological design to manage the information security risks associated with the IT-based processes virtualization, by applying the principles of the action research methodology and it is the result of a systematic review of the scientific literature. This design consists of seven fundamental stages. These are distributed in the three stages described in the action research methodology: 1) Observe, 2) Analyze and 3) Take actions. Finally, this paper aims to offer an alternative tool to traditional information security management methodologies with a view to being applied specifically in the planning stage of IT-based process virtualization in order to foresee risks and to establish security controls before formulating IT solutions in any type of organization.

Keywords: Action research, information security, information technology, methodological design, process virtualization, risk management.

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Authors: Dhruvit S. Berawala, Jann R. Ursin, Obrad Slijepcevic

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Shale gas is one of the most rapidly growing forms of natural gas. Unconventional natural gas deposits are difficult to characterize overall, but in general are often lower in resource concentration and dispersed over large areas. Moreover, gas is densely packed into the matrix through adsorption which accounts for large volume of gas reserves. Gas production from tight shale deposits are made possible by extensive and deep well fracturing which contacts large fractions of the formation. The conventional reservoir modelling and production forecasting methods, which rely on fluid-flow processes dominated by viscous forces, have proved to be very pessimistic and inaccurate. This paper presents a new approach to forecast shale gas production by detailed modeling of gas desorption, diffusion and non-linear flow mechanisms in combination with statistical representation of these processes. The representation of the model involves a cube as a porous media where free gas is present and a sphere (SiC: Sphere in Cube model) inside it where gas is adsorbed on to the kerogen or organic matter. Further, the sphere is considered consisting of many layers of adsorbed gas in an onion-like structure. With pressure decline, the gas desorbs first from the outer most layer of sphere causing decrease in its molecular concentration. The new available surface area and change in concentration triggers the diffusion of gas from kerogen. The process continues until all the gas present internally diffuses out of the kerogen, gets adsorbs onto available surface area and then desorbs into the nanopores and micro-fractures in the cube. Each SiC idealizes a gas pathway and is characterized by sphere diameter and length of the cube. The diameter allows to model gas storage, diffusion and desorption; the cube length takes into account the pathway for flow in nanopores and micro-fractures. Many of these representative but general cells of the reservoir are put together and linked to a well or hydraulic fracture. The paper quantitatively describes these processes as well as clarifies the geological conditions under which a successful shale gas production could be expected. A numerical model has been derived which is then compiled on FORTRAN to develop a simulator for the production of shale gas by considering the spheres as a source term in each of the grid blocks. By applying SiC to field data, we demonstrate that the model provides an effective way to quickly access gas production rates from shale formations. We also examine the effect of model input properties on gas production.

Keywords: Sphere in Cube Grid Approach to Modelling of Shale Gas Production Using Non-Linear Flow Mechanisms

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Authors: Shahin Zanbaghi, Saeed Samet

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The internet has transformed the way we shop. Previously, most of our purchases came in the form of shopping trips to a nearby store. Now, it is as easy as clicking a mouse. We have to be constantly vigilant about our personal information. In this work, our proposed approach is to encrypt the information printed on the physical packages, which include personal information in plain text using a symmetric encryption algorithm; then, we store that encrypted information into a Blockchain network rather than storing them in companies or corporations centralized databases. We present, implement and assess a blockchain-based system using Ethereum smart contracts. We present detailed algorithms that explain the details of our smart contract. We present the security, cost and performance analysis of the proposed method. Our work indicates that the proposed solution is economically attainable and provides data integrity, security, transparency and data traceability.

Keywords: Blockchain, Ethereum, smart contract, commit-reveal scheme.

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Authors: Souvik Bhattacharyya, Gautam Sanyal

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Over last two decades, due to hostilities of environment over the internet the concerns about confidentiality of information have increased at phenomenal rate. Therefore to safeguard the information from attacks, number of data/information hiding methods have evolved mostly in spatial and transformation domain.In spatial domain data hiding techniques,the information is embedded directly on the image plane itself. In transform domain data hiding techniques the image is first changed from spatial domain to some other domain and then the secret information is embedded so that the secret information remains more secure from any attack. Information hiding algorithms in time domain or spatial domain have high capacity and relatively lower robustness. In contrast, the algorithms in transform domain, such as DCT, DWT have certain robustness against some multimedia processing.In this work the authors propose a novel steganographic method for hiding information in the transform domain of the gray scale image.The proposed approach works by converting the gray level image in transform domain using discrete integer wavelet technique through lifting scheme.This approach performs a 2-D lifting wavelet decomposition through Haar lifted wavelet of the cover image and computes the approximation coefficients matrix CA and detail coefficients matrices CH, CV, and CD.Next step is to apply the PMM technique in those coefficients to form the stego image. The aim of this paper is to propose a high-capacity image steganography technique that uses pixel mapping method in integer wavelet domain with acceptable levels of imperceptibility and distortion in the cover image and high level of overall security. This solution is independent of the nature of the data to be hidden and produces a stego image with minimum degradation.

Keywords: Cover Image, Pixel Mapping Method (PMM), StegoImage, Integer Wavelet Tranform.

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Authors: M. Y. Ismail, M. Inam

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This paper presents equivalent circuit modeling of active planar reflectors which can be used for the detailed analysis and characterization of reflector performance in terms of lumped components. Equivalent circuit representation has been proposed for PIN diodes and liquid crystal based active planar reflectors designed within X-band frequency range. A very close agreement has been demonstrated between equivalent circuit results, 3D EM simulated results as well as measured scattering parameter results. In the case of measured results, a maximum discrepancy of 1.05dB was observed in the reflection loss performance, which can be attributed to the losses occurred during measurement process.

Keywords: Equivalent circuit modelling, planar reflectors, reflectarray antenna, PIN diode, liquid crystal.

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Authors: Xia Lin

Abstract:

Concept maps can be generated manually or automatically. It is important to recognize differences of the two types of concept maps. The automatically generated concept maps are dynamic, interactive, and full of associations between the terms on the maps and the underlying documents. Through a specific concept mapping system, Visual Concept Explorer (VCE), this paper discusses how automatically generated concept maps are different from manually generated concept maps and how different applications and learning opportunities might be created with the automatically generated concept maps. The paper presents several examples of learning strategies that take advantages of the automatically generated concept maps for concept learning and exploration.

Keywords: Concept maps, Dynamic concept representation, learning strategies, visual interface, Visual Concept Explorer.

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Authors: Pavan S., Sridhar G., Sridhar V.

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Super resolution is one of the commonly referred inference problems in computer vision. In the case of images, this problem is generally addressed using a graphical model framework wherein each node represents a portion of the image and the edges between the nodes represent the statistical dependencies. However, the large dimensionality of images along with the large number of possible states for a node makes the inference problem computationally intractable. In this paper, we propose a representation wherein each node can be represented as acombination of multiple regression functions. The proposed approach achieves a tradeoff between the computational complexity and inference accuracy by varying the number of regression functions for a node.

Keywords: Belief propagation, Graphical model, Regression, Super resolution.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Dehghani

Abstract:

In the power quality analysis non-stationary nature of voltage distortions require some precise and powerful analytical techniques. The time-frequency representation (TFR) provides a powerful method for identification of the non-stationary of the signals. This paper investigates a comparative study on two techniques for analysis and visualization of voltage distortions with time-varying amplitudes. The techniques include the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and the S-Transform. Several power quality problems are analyzed using both the discrete wavelet transform and S–transform, showing clearly the advantage of the S– transform in detecting, localizing, and classifying the power quality problems.

Keywords: Power quality, S-Transform, Short Time FourierTransform , Wavelet Transform, instantaneous sag, swell.

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Authors: Al-Amin Bhuiyan, Chang Hong Liu

Abstract:

Gabor-based face representation has achieved enormous success in face recognition. This paper addresses a novel algorithm for face recognition using neural networks trained by Gabor features. The system is commenced on convolving a face image with a series of Gabor filter coefficients at different scales and orientations. Two novel contributions of this paper are: scaling of rms contrast and introduction of fuzzily skewed filter. The neural network employed for face recognition is based on the multilayer perceptron (MLP) architecture with backpropagation algorithm and incorporates the convolution filter response of Gabor jet. The effectiveness of the algorithm has been justified over a face database with images captured at different illumination conditions.

Keywords: Fuzzily skewed filter, Gabor filter, rms contrast, neural network.

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Authors: Irina Maria Artinescu, Costin Radu Boldea, Eduard-Ionut Matei

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The paper is a comparative study of two classical vari-ants of parallel projection methods for solving the convex feasibility problem with their equivalents that involve variable weights in the construction of the solutions. We used a graphical representation of these methods for inpainting a convex area of an image in order to investigate their effectiveness in image reconstruction applications. We also presented a numerical analysis of the convergence of these four algorithms in terms of the average number of steps and execution time, in classical CPU and, alternativaly, in parallel GPU implementation.

Keywords: convex feasibility problem, convergence analysis, ınpainting, parallel projection methods

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Authors: Amin Milani Fard, Mohsen Kahani, Reza Ghaemi, Hamid Tabatabaee

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In this paper we propose a multi-agent architecture for web information retrieval using fuzzy logic based result fusion mechanism. The model is designed in JADE framework and takes advantage of JXTA agent communication method to allow agent communication through firewalls and network address translators. This approach enables developers to build and deploy P2P applications through a unified medium to manage agent-based document retrieval from multiple sources.

Keywords: Information retrieval systems, list fusion methods, document score, multi-agent systems.

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Authors: Shilpi Sharma, J. S. Sodhi

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The advent of social networking technologies has been met with mixed reactions in academic and corporate circles around the world. This study explored the influence of social network in current era, the relation being maintained between the Social networking site and its user by the extent of use, benefits and latest technologies. The study followed a descriptive research design wherein a questionnaire was used as the main research tool. The data collected was analyzed using SPSS 16. Data was gathered from 1205 users and analyzed in accordance with the objectives of the study. The analysis of the results seem to suggest that the majority of users were mainly using Facebook, despite of concerns raised about the disclosure of personal information on social network sites, users continue to disclose huge quantity of personal information, they find that reading privacy policy is time consuming and changes made can result into improper settings.

Keywords: Social Networking Sites, Privacy Policy, Disclosure of Personal Information.

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Authors: Mario Kubek, Herwig Unger

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Centroid terms are single words that semantically and topically characterise text documents and so may serve as their very compact representation in automatic text processing. In the present paper, centroids are used to measure the relevance of text documents with respect to a given search query. Thus, a new graphbased paradigm for searching texts in large corpora is proposed and evaluated against keyword-based methods. The first, promising experimental results demonstrate the usefulness of the centroid-based search procedure. It is shown that especially the routing of search queries in interactive and decentralised search systems can be greatly improved by applying this approach. A detailed discussion on further fields of its application completes this contribution.

Keywords: Search algorithm, centroid, query, keyword, cooccurrence, categorisation.

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Authors: Yavar Safaei Mehrabani, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh

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As embedded and portable systems were emerged power consumption of circuits had been major challenge. On the other hand latency as determines frequency of circuits is also vital task. Therefore, trade off between both of them will be desirable. Modulo 2n+1 adders are important part of the residue number system (RNS) based arithmetic units with the interesting moduli set (2n-1,2n, 2n+1). In this manuscript we have introduced novel binary representation to the design of modulo 2n+1 adder. VLSI realization of proposed architecture under 180 nm full static CMOS technology reveals its superiority in terms of area, power consumption and power-delay product (PDP) against several peer existing structures.

Keywords: Computer arithmetic, modulo 2n+1 adders, Residue Number System (RNS), VLSI.

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Authors: G. Poonkuzhali, K.Thiagarajan, K.Sarukesi, G.V.Uma

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The emergence of the Internet has brewed the revolution of information storage and retrieval. As most of the data in the web is unstructured, and contains a mix of text, video, audio etc, there is a need to mine information to cater to the specific needs of the users without loss of important hidden information. Thus developing user friendly and automated tools for providing relevant information quickly becomes a major challenge in web mining research. Most of the existing web mining algorithms have concentrated on finding frequent patterns while neglecting the less frequent ones that are likely to contain outlying data such as noise, irrelevant and redundant data. This paper mainly focuses on Signed approach and full word matching on the organized domain dictionary for mining web content outliers. This Signed approach gives the relevant web documents as well as outlying web documents. As the dictionary is organized based on the number of characters in a word, searching and retrieval of documents takes less time and less space.

Keywords: Outliers, Relevant document, , Signed Approach, Web content mining, Web documents..

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Authors: Bubaker F. Shareia, Almuetaz R. Boubakr

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The aim of this paper is to show how Libya’s legal, economic, political, social, and cultural systems have shaped Libyan development. This will provide a background to develop an understanding of the current role of the accounting information system in Libya and the challenges facing the design of the aeronautical information system to meet the development needs of Libya. Our knowledge of the unified economic operating systems of the world paves the way for the economic development of every developing country. In order to achieve this understanding, every developing country should be provided with a high-efficiency communications system in order to be able to interact globally. From the point of view of the theory of globalization, Libya's understanding of its socio-economic and political systems is vital in order to be able to adopt and apply accounting techniques that will assist in the economic development of Libya.

Keywords: Accounting, economic development, globalisation theory, information system.

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Authors: Y. Atilgan Şengül

Abstract:

Health information technologies promise higher quality, safer care and much more for both patients and professionals. Despite their promise, they are costly to develop and difficult to implement. On the other hand, user acceptance and usage determine the success of implemented information technology in healthcare. This study provides a model to understand health professionals’ perception and expectation of health information technology. Extensive literature review has been conducted to determine the main factors to be measured. A questionnaire has been designed as a measurement model and submitted to the personnel of an in vitro fertilization clinic. The respondents’ degree of agreement according to five-point Likert scale was 72% for convenient access to data and 69.4% for the importance of data security. There was a significant difference in acceptance of electronic data storage for female respondents. Also, other significant differences between professions were obtained.

Keywords: Healthcare, health informatics, medical record system, questionnaire.

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Authors: Abhijit Mitra, Bhargav Kumar Mitra, Biswajoy Chatterjee

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We present a novel scheme to recognize isolated speech signals using certain statistical parameters derived from those signals. The determination of the statistical estimates is based on extracted signal information rather than the original signal information in order to reduce the computational complexity. Subtle details of these estimates, after extracting the speech signal from ambience noise, are first exploited to segregate the polysyllabic words from the monosyllabic ones. Precise recognition of each distinct word is then carried out by analyzing the histogram, obtained from these information.

Keywords: Isolated speech signals, Block overlapping technique, Positive peaks, Histogram analysis.

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Authors: Yimeng Deng, Klarissa T.T. Chang

Abstract:

The proliferation of user-generated content (UGC) results in huge opportunities to explore event patterns. However, existing event recommendation systems primarily focus on advanced information technology users. Little work has been done to address novice and low-literacy users. The next billion users providing and consuming UGC are likely to include communities from developing countries who are ready to use affordable technologies for subsistence goals. Therefore, we propose a design framework for providing event recommendations to address the needs of such users. Grounded in information integration theory (IIT), our framework advocates that effective event recommendation is supported by systems capable of (1) reliable information gathering through structured user input, (2) accurate sense making through spatial-temporal analytics, and (3) intuitive information dissemination through interactive visualization techniques. A mobile pest management application is developed as an instantiation of the design framework. Our preliminary study suggests a set of design principles for novice and low-literacy users.

Keywords: Event recommendation, iconic interface, information integration, spatial-temporal clustering, user-generated content, visualization techniques

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Authors: Khaled E. A. Negm

Abstract:

A neuron can emit spikes in an irregular time basis and by averaging over a certain time window one would ignore a lot of information. It is known that in the context of fast information processing there is no sufficient time to sample an average firing rate of the spiking neurons. The present work shows that the spiking neurons are capable of computing the radial basis functions by storing the relevant information in the neurons' delays. One of the fundamental findings of the this research also is that when using overlapping receptive fields to encode the data patterns it increases the network-s clustering capacity. The clustering algorithm that is discussed here is interesting from computer science and neuroscience point of view as well as from a perspective.

Keywords: Temporal Neurons, RBF Recognition, Perturbation, On Line Recognition.

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Authors: Khababa Abdallah, Touahria Mohamed, Frécon Louis

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The school / university orientation interests a broad and often badly informed public. Technically, it is an important multicriterion decision problem, which supposes the combination of much academic professional and/or lawful knowledge, which in turn justifies software resorting to the techniques of Artificial Intelligence. CORUS is an expert system of the "Conseil et ORientation Universitaire et Scolaire", based on a knowledge representation language (KRL) with rules and objects, called/ known as Ibn Rochd. CORUS was developed thanks to DéGSE, a workshop of cognitive engineering which supports this LRC. CORUS works out many acceptable solutions for the case considered, and retains the most satisfactory among them. Several versions of CORUS have extended its services gradually.

Keywords: Kknowledge Engineering, Multicriterion Decision, Knowledge-Based Systems.

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Authors: F.S.Tashimova, A. Mirzabekova, Z. Ismagambetova, Y. Massanov, Z. Gabit

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In the globalization process, when the struggle for minds and values of the people is taking place, the impact of the virtual space can cause unexpected effects and consequences in the process of adjustment of young people in this world. Their special significance is defined by unconscious influence on the underlying process of meaning and therefore the values preached by them are much more effective and affect both the personal characteristics and the peculiarities of adjustment process. Related to this the challenge is to identify factors influencing the reflection characteristics of virtual subjects and measures their impact on the personal characteristics of the students.

Keywords: Coping behavior, overcoming, personalization (representation), psychological defense, values, virtual space, virtual subject, subjective reflection.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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