Search results for: weather prediction.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1210

Search results for: weather prediction.

640 Drafting the Design and Development of Micro- Controller Based Portable Soil Moisture Sensor for Advancement in Agro Engineering

Authors: Guneet Mander, Gurinder Pal Singh

Abstract:

Moisture is an important consideration in many aspects ranging from irrigation, soil chemistry, golf course, corrosion and erosion, road conditions, weather predictions, livestock feed moisture levels, water seepage etc. Vegetation and crops always depend more on the moisture available at the root level than on precipitation occurrence. In this paper, design of an instrument is discussed which tells about the variation in the moisture contents of soil. This is done by measuring the amount of water content in soil by finding the variation in capacitance of soil with the help of a capacitive sensor. The greatest advantage of soil moisture sensor is reduced water consumption. The sensor is also be used to set lower and upper threshold to maintain optimum soil moisture saturation and minimize water wilting, contributes to deeper plant root growth ,reduced soil run off /leaching and less favorable condition for insects and fungal diseases. Capacitance method is preferred because, it provides absolute amount of water content and also measures water content at any depth.

Keywords: Capacitive Sensors, aluminum, Water, Irrigation.

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639 Investigation of Steady State Infiltration Rate for Different Head Condition

Authors: Nour Aljafari, Mariam, S. Maani, Serter Atabay, Tarig Ali, Said Daker, Lara Daher, Hamad Bukhammas, Mohammed Abou Shakra

Abstract:

This paper aims at determining the soil characteristics that influence the irrigation process of green landscapes and deciding on the optimum amount of water needed for irrigation. The laboratory experiments were conducted using the constant head methodology to determine the soil infiltration rates. The steady state infiltration rate was reached after 10 minutes of infiltration at a rate of 200 mm/hr. The effects of different water heads on infiltration rates were also investigated, and the head of 11 cm was found to be the optimum head for the test. The experimental results showed consistent infiltration results for the range between 11 cm and 15 cm. The study also involved finding the initial moisture content, which ranged between 5% and 25%, and finding the organic content, which occupied 1% to 2% of the soil. These results will be later utilized, using the water balance approach, to estimate the optimum amount of water needed for irrigation for changing weather conditions.

Keywords: Infiltration rate, moisture content, grass type, organic content.

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638 Hidden Markov Model for the Simulation Study of Neural States and Intentionality

Authors: R. B. Mishra

Abstract:

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used in prediction and determination of states that generate different neural activations as well as mental working conditions. This paper addresses two applications of HMM; one to determine the optimal sequence of states for two neural states: Active (AC) and Inactive (IA) for the three emission (observations) which are for No Working (NW), Waiting (WT) and Working (W) conditions of human beings. Another is for the determination of optimal sequence of intentionality i.e. Believe (B), Desire (D), and Intention (I) as the states and three observational sequences: NW, WT and W. The computational results are encouraging and useful.

Keywords: BDI, HMM, neural activation, optimal states, working conditions.

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637 A Study on the Relation of Corporate Governance and Pricing for Initial Public Offerings

Authors: Chei-Chang Chiou, Sen-Wei Wang, Yu-Min Wang

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between corporate governance and pricing for initial public offerings (IPOs). Empirical result finds that the prediction of pricing of IPOs with corporate governance added can have a rather higher degree of predicting accuracy than that of non governance added during the training and testing samples. Therefore, it can be observed that corporate governance mechanism can affect the pricing of IPOs

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, corporate governance, initial public offerings.

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636 Ship Detection Requirements Analysis for Different Sea States: Validation on Real SAR Data

Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

Abstract:

Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection.

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635 An Accurate Prediction of Surface Temperature History in a Supersonic Flight

Authors: A. M. Tahsini, S. A. Hosseini

Abstract:

In the present study, the surface temperature history of the adaptor part in a two-stage supersonic launch vehicle is accurately predicted. The full Navier-Stokes equations are used to estimate the aerodynamic heat flux and the one-dimensional heat conduction in solid phase is used to compute the temperature history. The instantaneous surface temperature is used to improve the applied heat flux, to improve the accuracy of the results.

Keywords: Aerodynamic heating, Heat conduction, Numerical simulation, Supersonic flight, Launch vehicle.

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634 A Thermal-Shock Fatigue Design of Automotive Heat Exchangers

Authors: A. Chidley, F. Roger, A. Traidia

Abstract:

A method is presented for using thermo-mechanical fatigue analysis as a tool in the design of automotive heat exchangers. Use of infra-red thermography to measure the real thermal history in the heat exchanger reduces the time necessary for calculating design parameters and improves prediction accuracy. Thermal shocks are the primary cause of heat exchanger damage. Thermo-mechanical simulation is based on the mean behavior of the aluminum tubes used in the heat exchanger. An energetic fatigue criterion is used to detect critical zones.

Keywords: Heat exchanger, Fatigue, Thermal shocks. I.

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633 Analysis of DNA from Fired Cartridge Casings

Authors: S. Mawlood, L. Dennany, N. Watson, B. Pickard

Abstract:

DNA analysis has been widely accepted as providing valuable evidence concerning the identity of the source of biological traces. Our work has showed that DNA samples can survive on cartridges even after firing. The study also raised the possibility of determining other information such as the age of the donor. Such information may be invaluable in certain cases where spent cartridges from automatic weapons are left behind at the scene of a crime. In spite of the nature of touch evidence and exposure to high chamber temperatures during shooting, we were still capable to retrieve enough DNA for profile typing. In order to estimate age of contributor, DNA methylation levels were analyzed using EpiTect system for retrieved DNA. However, results were not conclusive, due to low amount of input DNA.

Keywords: Age prediction, Fired cartridge, Trace DNA sample.

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632 The Adsorption of SDS on Ferro-Precipitates

Authors: R.Marsalek

Abstract:

This paper present a new way to find the aerodynamic characteristic equation of missile for the numerical trajectories prediction more accurate. The goal is to obtain the polynomial equation based on two missile characteristic parameters, angle of attack (α ) and flight speed (ν ). First, the understudied missile is modeled and used for flow computational model to compute aerodynamic force and moment. Assume that performance range of understudied missile where range -10< α <10 and 0< ν <200. After completely obtained results of all cases, the data are fit by polynomial interpolation to create equation of each case and then combine all equations to form aerodynamic characteristic equation, which will be used for trajectories simulation.

Keywords: ferro-precipitate, adsorption, SDS, zeta potential

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631 Optimization of Solar Tracking Systems

Authors: A. Zaher, A. Traore, F. Thiéry, T. Talbert, B. Shaer

Abstract:

In this paper, an intelligent approach is proposed to optimize the orientation of continuous solar tracking systems on cloudy days. Considering the weather case, the direct sunlight is more important than the diffuse radiation in case of clear sky. Thus, the panel is always pointed towards the sun. In case of an overcast sky, the solar beam is close to zero, and the panel is placed horizontally to receive the maximum of diffuse radiation. Under partly covered conditions, the panel must be pointed towards the source that emits the maximum of solar energy and it may be anywhere in the sky dome. Thus, the idea of our approach is to analyze the images, captured by ground-based sky camera system, in order to detect the zone in the sky dome which is considered as the optimal source of energy under cloudy conditions. The proposed approach is implemented using experimental setup developed at PROMES-CNRS laboratory in Perpignan city (France). Under overcast conditions, the results were very satisfactory, and the intelligent approach has provided efficiency gains of up to 9% relative to conventional continuous sun tracking systems.

Keywords: Clouds detection, fuzzy inference systems, images processing, sun trackers.

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630 A Black-Box Approach in Modeling Valve Stiction

Authors: H. Zabiri, N. Mazuki

Abstract:

Several valve stiction models have been proposed in the literature to help understand and study the behavior of sticky valves. In this paper, an alternative black-box modeling approach based on Neural Network (NN) is presented. It is shown that with proper network type and optimum model structures, the performance of the developed NN stiction model is comparable to other established method. The resulting NN model is also tested for its robustness against the uncertainty in the stiction parameter values. Predictive mode operation also shows excellent performance of the proposed model for multi-steps ahead prediction.

Keywords: Control valve stiction, neural network, modeling.

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629 Fresh Vegetable Supply Chain in Nakorn Pathom Province for Exporting

Authors: P. Waiyawuththanapoom, P. Tirastittam

Abstract:

Thailand is the agriculture country as the weather and geography are suitable for agriculture environment. In 2011, the quantity of exported fresh vegetable was 126,069 tons which valued 117.1 million US dollars. Although the fresh vegetable has a high potential in exporting, there also have a lack of knowledge such as chemical usage, land usage, marketing and also the transportation and logistics. Nakorn Pathom province is the area which the farmer and manufacturer of fresh vegetable located. The objectives of this study are to study the basic information of the local fresh vegetable farmers in Nakorn Pathom province, to study the factor which effects the management of the fresh vegetable supply chain in Nakorn Pathom province and to study the problems and obstacle of the fresh vegetable supply chain in Nakorn Pathom province. This study is limited to the flow of the Nakorn Pathom province fresh vegetable from the farmers to the country which import the vegetable from Thailand. The populations of this study are 100 local farmers in Nakorn Pathom province. The result of this study shows that the key process of the fresh vegetable supply chain is in the supply sourcing process and manufacturing process.

Keywords: Exporting, Fresh Vegetable, Nakorn Pathom Province, Supply Chain.

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628 Predictive Factors of Exercise Behaviors of Junior High School Students in Chonburi Province

Authors: Tanida Julvanichpong

Abstract:

Exercise has been regarded as a necessary and important aspect to enhance physical performance and psychology health. Body weight statistics of students in junior high school students in Chonburi Province beyond a standard risk of obesity. Promoting exercise among Junior high school students in Chonburi Province, essential knowledge concerning factors influencing exercise is needed. Therefore, this study aims to (1) determine the levels of perceived exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived barriers to exercise, perceived benefits of exercise, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, feelings associated with exercise behavior, influence of the family to exercise, influence of friends to exercise, and the perceived influence of the environment on exercise. (2) examine the predicting ability of each of the above factors while including personal factors (sex, educational level) for exercise behavior. Pender’s Health Promotion Model was used as a guide for the study. Sample included 652 students in junior high schools, Chonburi Provience. The samples were selected by Multi-Stage Random Sampling. Data Collection has been done by using self-administered questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, Eta, and stepwise multiple regression analysis. The research results showed that: 1. Perceived benefits of exercise, influence of teacher, influence of environmental, feelings associated with exercise behavior were at a high level. Influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise and influence of friends were at a moderate level. Perceived barriers to exercise were at a low level. 2. Exercise behavior was positively significant related to perceived benefits of exercise, influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, influence of friends, influence of teacher, influence of environmental and feelings associated with exercise behavior (p < .01, respectively) and was negatively significant related to educational level and perceived barriers to exercise (p < .01, respectively). Exercise behavior was significant related to sex (Eta = 0.243, p=.000). 3. Exercise behavior in the past, influence of the family to exercise significantly contributed 60.10 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in male students (p < .01). Exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, perceived barriers to exercise, and educational level significantly contributed 52.60 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in female students (p < .01).

Keywords: Predictive factors, exercise behaviors, junior high school.

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627 SIPINA Induction Graph Method for Seismic Risk Prediction

Authors: B. Selma

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of SIPINA method to predict the harmfulness parameters controlling the seismic response. The approach developed takes into consideration both the focal depth and the peak ground acceleration. The parameter to determine is displacement. The data used for the learning of this method and analysis nonlinear seismic are described and applied to a class of models damaged to some typical structures of the existing urban infrastructure of Jassy, Romania. The results obtained indicate an influence of the focal depth and the peak ground acceleration on the displacement.

Keywords: SIPINA method, seism, focal depth, peak ground acceleration, displacement.

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626 Artificial Neural Network-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Mymensingh Area of Bangladesh

Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

Abstract:

Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: Load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.

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625 Union Membership with Import Liberalization

Authors: Stephen B. Blumenfeld, Aaron Crawford, Andres G. Victorio

Abstract:

New Zealand-s product markets experienced a surge in import competition beginning from the late 1970-s when its government began to promote a policy of more open markets. This study considers how the trade liberalization aspect of the policy may have influenced unionization and union-organizing success. For describing the trade liberalization, a model shows how the removal of import tariffs can lead to countervailing influences upon the union membership of a domestic firm. The evidence supports the prediction that union membership has been decreased rather than increased. In the context of debates concerning globalization, it can be said that the power of unions has been diminished.

Keywords: Imports, tariffs, unions, wages.

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624 Autonomous Flight Performance Improvement of Load-Carrying Unmanned Aerial Vehicles by Active Morphing

Authors: Tugrul Oktay, Mehmet Konar, Mohamed Abdallah Mohamed, Murat Aydin, Firat Sal, Murat Onay, Mustafa Soylak

Abstract:

In this paper, it is aimed to improve autonomous flight performance of a load-carrying (payload: 3 kg and total: 6kg) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) through active wing and horizontal tail active morphing and also integrated autopilot system parameters (i.e. P, I, D gains) and UAV parameters (i.e. extension ratios of wing and horizontal tail during flight) design. For this purpose, a loadcarrying UAV (i.e. ZANKA-II) is manufactured in Erciyes University, College of Aviation, Model Aircraft Laboratory is benefited. Optimum values of UAV parameters and autopilot parameters are obtained using a stochastic optimization method. Using this approach autonomous flight performance of UAV is substantially improved and also in some adverse weather conditions an opportunity for safe flight is satisfied. Active morphing and integrated design approach gives confidence, high performance and easy-utility request of UAV users.

Keywords: Unmanned aerial vehicles, morphing, autopilots, autonomous performance.

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623 One Hour Ahead Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network for the Western Area of Saudi Arabia

Authors: A. J. Al-Shareef, E. A. Mohamed, E. Al-Judaibi

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become in recent years one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering. Most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence neural network techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests. This article presents the development of an ANN-based short-term load forecasting model with improved generalization technique for the Regional Power Control Center of Saudi Electricity Company, Western Operation Area (SEC-WOA). The proposed ANN is trained with weather-related data and historical electric load-related data using the data from the calendar years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 for training. The model tested for one week at five different seasons, typically, winter, spring, summer, Ramadan and fall seasons, and the mean absolute average error for one hour-ahead load forecasting found 1.12%.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, short-term load forecasting, back propagation.

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622 Evaluating Hourly Sulphur Dioxide and Ground Ozone Simulated with the Air Quality Model in Lima, Peru

Authors: Odón R. Sánchez-Ccoyllo, Elizabeth Ayma-Choque, Alan Llacza

Abstract:

Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and surface-ozone (O₃) concentrations are associated with diseases. The objective of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of the air-quality Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with a horizontal resolution of 5 km x 5 km. For this purpose, the measurements of the hourly SO₂ and O₃ concentrations available in three air quality monitoring stations in Lima, Peru were used for the purpose of validating the simulations of the SO₂ and O₃ concentrations obtained with the WRF-Chem model in February 2018. For the quantitative evaluation of the simulations of these gases, statistical techniques were implemented, such as the average of the simulations; the average of the measurements; the Mean Bias (MeB); the Mean Error (MeE); and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results of these statistical metrics indicated that the simulated SO₂ and O₃ values over-predicted the SO₂ and O₃ measurements. For the SO₂ concentration, the MeB values varied from 0.58 to 26.35 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 8.75 to 26.5 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 13.3 to 31.79 µg/m³; while for O₃ concentrations the statistical values of the MeB varied from 37.52 to 56.29 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 37.54 to 56.70 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 43.05 to 69.56 µg/m³.

Keywords: Ground-ozone, Lima, Sulphur dioxide, WRF-Chem.

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621 Bridging Consumer-Farmer Mobile Application Divide

Authors: A. Hol

Abstract:

Electronic mediums such as websites, feeds, blogs and social media sites are on a daily basis influencing our decision making, are improving our productivity and are shaping futures of many consumers and service/product providers. This research identifies that both customers and business providers heavily rely on smart phone applications. Based on this, mobile applications available on iTunes store were studied. It was identified that fruit and vegetable related applications used by consumers can broadly be categorized into purchase applications, diaries, tracking health applications, trip farm location and cooking applications. On the other hand, applications used by farmers can broadly be classified as: weather tracking, pests / fertilizer applications and general social media applications such as Facebook. To blur this farmer-consumer application divide, our research utilizes Context Specific eTransformation Framework and based on it identifies characteristic future consumer-farmer applications will need to have so that the current divide can be narrowed and consequently better farmerconsumer supply chain link established.

Keywords: Smart Phone Applications, SME, Farmers, Consumer, Fruit and Vegetable, Technology, Business Innovation.

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620 Modeling of Crude Oil Blending via Discrete-Time Neural Networks

Authors: Xiaoou Li, Wen Yu

Abstract:

Crude oil blending is an important unit operation in petroleum refining industry. A good model for the blending system is beneficial for supervision operation, prediction of the export petroleum quality and realizing model-based optimal control. Since the blending cannot follow the ideal mixing rule in practice, we propose a static neural network to approximate the blending properties. By the dead-zone approach, we propose a new robust learning algorithm and give theoretical analysis. Real data of crude oil blending is applied to illustrate the neuro modeling approach.

Keywords: Neural networks, modeling, stability, crude oil.

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619 Prediction of Computer and Video Game Playing Population: An Age Structured Model

Authors: T. K. Sriram, Joydip Dhar

Abstract:

Models based on stage structure have found varied applications in population models. This paper proposes a stage structured model to study the trends in the computer and video game playing population of US. The game paying population is divided into three compartments based on their age group. After simulating the mathematical model, a forecast of the number of game players in each stage as well as an approximation of the average age of game players in future has been made.

Keywords: Age structure, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Stage structure.

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618 An Effective Method of Head Lamp and Tail Lamp Recognition for Night Time Vehicle Detection

Authors: Hyun-Koo Kim, Sagong Kuk, MinKwan Kim, Ho-Youl Jung

Abstract:

This paper presents an effective method for detecting vehicles in front of the camera-assisted car during nighttime driving. The proposed method detects vehicles based on detecting vehicle headlights and taillights using techniques of image segmentation and clustering. First, to effectively extract spotlight of interest, a segmentation process based on automatic multi-level threshold method is applied on the road-scene images. Second, to spatial clustering vehicle of detecting lamps, a grouping process based on light tracking and locating vehicle lighting patterns. For simulation, we are implemented through Da-vinci 7437 DSP board with near infrared mono-camera and tested it in the urban and rural roads. Through the test, classification performances are above 97% of true positive rate evaluated on real-time environment. Our method also has good performance in the case of clear, fog and rain weather.

Keywords: Assistance Driving System, Multi-level Threshold Method, Near Infrared Mono Camera, Nighttime Vehicle Detection.

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617 Quantification of Peptides based on Isotope Dilution Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering

Authors: F. Yaghobian, R. Stosch, B. Güttler

Abstract:

This study aims to demonstrate the quantification of peptides based on isotope dilution surface enhanced Raman scattering (IDSERS). SERS spectra of phenylalanine (Phe), leucine (Leu) and two peptide sequences TGQIFK (T13) and YSFLQNPQTSLCFSESIPTPSNR (T6) as part of the 22-kDa human growth hormone (hGH) were obtained on Ag-nanoparticle covered substrates. On the basis of the dominant Phe and Leu vibrational modes, precise partial least squares (PLS) prediction models were built enabling the determination of unknown T13 and T6 concentrations. Detection of hGH in its physiological concentration in order to investigate the possibility of protein quantification has been achieved.

Keywords: Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering, Quantification, Peptides.

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616 Association Rule and Decision Tree based Methodsfor Fuzzy Rule Base Generation

Authors: Ferenc Peter Pach, Janos Abonyi

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the data-driven generation of fuzzy IF...THEN rules. The resulted fuzzy rule base can be applied to build a classifier, a model used for prediction, or it can be applied to form a decision support system. Among the wide range of possible approaches, the decision tree and the association rule based algorithms are overviewed, and two new approaches are presented based on the a priori fuzzy clustering based partitioning of the continuous input variables. An application study is also presented, where the developed methods are tested on the well known Wisconsin Breast Cancer classification problem.

Keywords:

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615 Ray Tracing Modified 3D Image Method Simulation of Picocellular Propagation Channel Environment

Authors: F. Alwafie

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the simulation of the propagation characteristics of the picocellular propagation channel environment. The first aim has been to find a correct description of the environment for received wave.

The result of the first investigations is that the environment of the indoor wave significantly changes as we change the electric parameters of material constructions. A modified 3D ray tracing image method tool has been utilized for the coverage prediction. A detailed analysis of the dependence of the indoor wave on the wideband characteristics of the channel: root mean square (RMS) delay spread characteristics and Mean excess delay, is also investigated.

Keywords: Propagation, Ray Tracing.

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614 Long Term Variability of Temperature in Armenia in the Context of Climate Change

Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961- 2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: Air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change.

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613 Air Handling Units Power Consumption Using Generalized Additive Model for Anomaly Detection: A Case Study in a Singapore Campus

Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

Abstract:

The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, digital twin, Generalised Additive Model, Power Consumption Model.

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612 Application of a Fracture-Mechanics Approach to Gas Pipelines

Authors: Ľubomír Gajdoš, Martin Šperl

Abstract:

This study offers a new simple method for assessing an axial part-through crack in a pipe wall. The method utilizes simple approximate expressions for determining the fracture parameters K, J, and employs these parameters to determine critical dimensions of a crack on the basis of equality between the J-integral and the J-based fracture toughness of the pipe steel. The crack tip constraint is taken into account by the so-called plastic constraint factor C, by which the uniaxial yield stress in the J-integral equation is multiplied. The results of the prediction of the fracture condition are verified by burst tests on test pipes.

Keywords: Axial crack, Fracture-mechanics, J integral, Pipeline wall.

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611 Development of Perez-Du Mortier Calibration Algorithm for Ground-Based Aerosol Optical Depth Measurement with Validation using SMARTS Model

Authors: Jedol Dayou, Jackson Hian Wui Chang, Rubena Yusoff, Ag. Sufiyan Abd. Hamid, Fauziah Sulaiman, Justin Sentian

Abstract:

Aerosols are small particles suspended in air that have wide varying spatial and temporal distributions. The concentration of aerosol in total columnar atmosphere is normally measured using aerosol optical depth (AOD). In long-term monitoring stations, accurate AOD retrieval is often difficult due to the lack of frequent calibration. To overcome this problem, a near-sea-level Langley calibration algorithm is developed using the combination of clear-sky detection model and statistical filter. It attempts to produce a dataset that consists of only homogenous and stable atmospheric condition for the Langley calibration purposes. In this paper, a radiance-based validation method is performed to further investigate the feasibility and consistency of the proposed algorithm at different location, day, and time. The algorithm is validated using SMARTS model based n DNI value. The overall results confirmed that the proposed calibration algorithm feasible and consistent for measurements taken at different sites and weather conditions.

Keywords: Aerosol optical depth, direct normal irradiance, Langley calibration, radiance-based validation, SMARTS.

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