Search results for: project risk management

Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

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This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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Authors: Masaru Furukawa, Shigeki Hirobayashi, Tadanobu Misawa

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Nowadays, IT/Business strategy alignment is still a key topic of concern among managers worldwide. Change has always being considered the primary challenge affecting the strategy alignment. Planning for alignment in uncertain and dynamic changing environments is burdened with risk as organizations seek to understand how much flexibility to build in their management information system so as to maintain high levels of alignment. The literature review showed that there is a tight relationship between IT infrastructure flexibility and the strategy alignment with strategic information systems (SIS) planning serving as a moderator of this relationship, and that emphasized the needs for organizations to use SIS planning consistently and to monitor the relationship between IS flexibility and the alignment. This paper presents the procedure of SIS planning with IS flexibility renovation via future oriented analysis of POC (penalty of change) as a function of cost and time. Using this SIS planning and monitoring IS flexibility and the alignment during periods of increased change in dynamic and uncertain environments reduces the risk that could transform IT into an inhibitor rather than an enabler of change.

Keywords: IT/Business strategy alignment, strategic information systems (SIS) planning, IS flexibility, penalty of change (POC).

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Authors: Moosa Haji Abbasi, Emad Benhelal, Arshad Ahmad

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Storage tank farms are essential industrial facilities to accumulate oil, petrochemicals and gaseous products. Since tank farms contain huge mass of fuel and hazardous materials, they are always targets of serious accidents such as fire, explosion, spill and toxic release which may cause severe impacts on human health, environmental and properties.

Although having a safe layout is not able to prevent initiating accidents, however it effectively controls and reduces the adverse impact of such accidents.

The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal layout for a storage tank contains different type of hydrocarbon fuels. A quantitative risk assessment is carried out on a selected tank farm in Jaipur, India, with particular attention given to both the consequence modeling and the overall risk assessment using PHAST Software. Various designs of tank layouts are examined taking into consideration several issues of plant operations and maintenance. In all stages of the work, standard guidelines specified by the industry are considered and recommendations are substantiated with simulation results and risk quantification.

Keywords: Tank farm, safe distance, safe layout, risk assessment, PHAST.

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

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In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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Authors: R. Sammoura

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In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.

Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.

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Authors: Jasna Prester, Ivana Rašić Bakarić, Božidar Matijević

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Innovations not only contribute to competitiveness of the company but have also positive effects on revenues. On average, product innovations account to 14 percent of companies’ sales. Innovation management has substantially changed during the last decade, because of growing reliance on external partners. As a consequence, a new task for purchasing arises, as firms need to understand which suppliers actually do have high potential contributing to the innovativeness of the firm and which do not. Proper organization of the purchasing function is important since for the majority of manufacturing companies deal with substantial material costs which pass through the purchasing function. In the past the purchasing function was largely seen as a transaction-oriented, clerical function but today purchasing is the intermediate with supply chain partners contributing to innovations, be it product or process innovations. Therefore, purchasing function has to be organized differently to enable firm innovation potential. However, innovations are inherently risky. There are behavioral risk (that some partner will take advantage of the other party), technological risk in terms of complexity of products and processes of manufacturing and incoming materials and finally market risks, which in fact judge the value of the innovation. These risks are investigated in this work. Specifically, technological risks which deal with complexity of the products, and processes will be investigated more thoroughly. Buying components or such high edge technologies necessities careful investigation of technical features and therefore is usually conducted by a team of experts. Therefore it is hypothesized that higher the technological risk, higher will be the centralization of the purchasing function as an interface with other supply chain members. Main contribution of this research lies is in the fact that analysis was performed on a large data set of 1493 companies, from 25 countries collected in the GMRG 4 survey. Most analyses of purchasing function are done by case study analysis of innovative firms. Therefore this study contributes with empirical evaluations that can be generalized.

Keywords: Purchasing function organization, innovation, technological risk, GMRG 4 survey.

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Authors: Lo Kar Yin, Law Ka Mei

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Architectural, engineering, construction and operations (AECO) industry practitioners have been well adapting to the dynamic construction market from the fundamental training of its disciplines. As further triggered by the pandemic since 2019, great steps are taken in virtual environment and the best collaboration is strived with project teams without boundaries. With adoption of Building Information Modeling-based approach and qualitative analysis, this paper is to review quantity take-off (QTO) and cost estimation process through modeling techniques in liaison with suppliers, fabricators, subcontractors, contractors, designers, consultants and services providers in the construction industry value chain for automatic project cost budgeting, project cost control and cost evaluation on design options of in-situ reinforced-concrete construction and Modular Integrated Construction (MiC) at design stage, variation of works and cash flow/spending analysis at construction stage as far as practicable, with a view to sharing the findings for enhancing mutual trust and co-operation among AECO industry practitioners. It is to foster development through a common prototype of design and build project delivery method in NEC4 Engineering and Construction Contract (ECC) Options A and C.

Keywords: Building Information Modeling, cost estimation, quantity take-off, modeling techniques.

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Authors: Kemalettin Eryeşil, Aykut Bedük, Mehtap Fındık

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The aim of this study is to determine the effect of strategic management implementations on the institutionalization levels. In this regard a field study has been made over 31 stone quarry enterprises in cement producing sector in Konya by using survey method. In this study, institutionalization levels of the enterprises have been evaluated regarding three dimensions: professionalization, management approach, participation in decisions and delegation of authority. According to the results of the survey, there is a highly positive and statistically significant relationship between the strategic management implementations and institutionalization levels of the enterprises. Additionally,-considering the results of regression analysis made for establishing the relationship between strategic management and institutionalization levels- it has been determined that strategic management implementations of the enterprises can be used as a variable to explain the institutionalization levels of them, and also strategic management implementations of the enterprises increase the institutionalization levels of them.

Keywords: Institutionalization, Management, Strategic Management.

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Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

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The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: Psychological wellbeing, cardiovascular disease, elderly.

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Authors: Kam-moon Liu, Kwok-chi Chim, Kwok-wai Chung, Daniel Wing-cheong Ho

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Students often adopt routine practicing as learning strategy for mathematics. The reason is they are often bound and trained to solving conventional-typed questions in Mathematics in high school. This will be problematic if students further consolidate this practice in university. Therefore, the Department of Mathematics emphasized and integrated the Discovery-enriched approach in the undergraduate curriculum. This paper presents the details of implementing the Discovery-enriched Curriculum by providing adequate platform for project-learning, expertise for guidance and internship opportunities for students majoring in Mathematics. The Department also provided project-learning opportunities to mathematics courses targeted for students majoring in other science or engineering disciplines. The outcome is promising: the research ability and problem solving skills of students are enhanced.

Keywords: Discovery-enriched curriculum, higher education, mathematics education, project learning.

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Authors: Sellappan Narayanagounder, Karuppusami Gurusami

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The traditional Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) uses Risk Priority Number (RPN) to evaluate the risk level of a component or process. The RPN index is determined by calculating the product of severity, occurrence and detection indexes. The most critically debated disadvantage of this approach is that various sets of these three indexes may produce an identical value of RPN. This research paper seeks to address the drawbacks in traditional FMEA and to propose a new approach to overcome these shortcomings. The Risk Priority Code (RPC) is used to prioritize failure modes, when two or more failure modes have the same RPN. A new method is proposed to prioritize failure modes, when there is a disagreement in ranking scale for severity, occurrence and detection. An Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is used to compare means of RPN values. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) statistical analysis package is used to analyze the data. The results presented are based on two case studies. It is found that the proposed new methodology/approach resolves the limitations of traditional FMEA approach.

Keywords: Failure mode and effects analysis, Risk priority code, Critical failure mode, Analysis of variance.

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Authors: K. Aravindhan, Trishit Bandyopadhyay, Mahesh Mehendale, Supriya Kumar De

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The inherent iterative nature of product design and development poses significant challenge to reduce the product design and development time (PD). In order to shorten the time to market, organizations have adopted concurrent development where multiple specialized tasks and design activities are carried out in parallel. Iterative nature of work coupled with the overlap of activities can result in unpredictable time to completion and significant rework. Many of the products have missed the time to market window due to unanticipated or rather unplanned iteration and rework. The iterative and often overlapped processes introduce greater amounts of ambiguity in design and development, where the traditional methods and tools of project management provide less value. In this context, identifying critical metrics to understand the iteration probability is an open research area where significant contribution can be made given that iteration has been the key driver of cost and schedule risk in PD projects. Two important questions that the proposed study attempts to address are: Can we predict and identify the number of iterations in a product development flow? Can we provide managerial insights for a better control over iteration? The proposal introduces the concept of decision points and using this concept intends to develop metrics that can provide managerial insights into iteration predictability. By characterizing the product development flow as a network of decision points, the proposed research intends to delve further into iteration probability and attempts to provide more clarity.

Keywords: Decision Points, Iteration, Product Design, Rework.

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Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen

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A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.

Keywords: Behavior based advising, behavioral finance, financial advising, financial advisor tools, financial risk tolerance.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Porush Bassi, Amanpreet Singh Brar

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Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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Authors: J. Ruso, M. Krsmanovic, A. Trajkovic, Z. Rakicevic

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Since the late 1970s, quality management has become an important tool for achieving a high quality of public e-administration services in many countries. Very important part of quality management in e-administration is measurement of quality indicators related to this sector. Therefore, this paper gives a description of e-administration, including statistics about it and other examples from many countries worldwide, as well as the explanation of quality management in public e-administration. The paper also gives a list and description of quality indicators relevant to e-administration, as part of quality management within the e-administration. Through a literature review and best practices, the paper aims to analyze quality indicators measurement and other parts of good quality management when it comes to the public e-administration and consequently to show the usefulness of quality management in public e-administration in order to provide services of high quality.

Keywords: e-Administration, quality indicators, quality management.

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Authors: Whee Yen Wong, Chan Wai Lee, Kim Yeow Tshai

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Producing IT products/services required carefully designed. IT development process is intangible and labour intensive. Making optimal use of available resources, both soft (knowledge, skill-set etc.) and hard (computer system, ancillary equipment etc.), is vital if IT development is to achieve sensible economical advantages. Apart from the norm of Project Life Cycle and System Development Life Cycle (SDLC), there is an urgent need to establish a general yet widely acceptable guideline on the most effective and efficient way to precede an IT project in the broader view of Product Life Cycle. The current paper proposes such a framework with two major areas of concern: (1) an integration of IT Products and IT Services within an existing IT Process architecture and; (2) how IT Product and IT Services are built into the framework of Product Life Cycle, Project Life Cycle and SDLC.

Keywords: Mapping of Quality Relationship, IT Processes/IT Products/IT Services, Product Life Cycle, System Development Life Cycle.

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Authors: Sophie Huck, Knut Linke

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This study will examine how IT practitioners can be motivated for IT studies and which kind of support they need during their occupational studies. Within this research project, the challenge of supporting students being engaged in business for several years arose. Here, it is especially important to successfully guide them through their studies. The problem of this group is that they finished their school education years ago. In order to gather first experiences, preliminary e-learning courses were introduced and tested with a group of users studying General Management. They had to work with these courses and have been questioned later on about their approach to the different methods. Moreover, a second group of potential students was interviewed with the help of online questionnaires to give information about their expectations regarding extra occupational studies. We also want to present best practices and cases in e-education in the subarea of mathematics and distance learning. Within these cases and practices, we use state of the art systems and technologies in e-education to find a way to increase teaching quality and the success of students. Our research indicated that the first group of enrolled students appreciated the new preliminary e-learning courses. The second group of potential students was convinced of this way of learning as a significant component of extra occupational studies. It can be concluded that this part of the project clarified the acceptance of the e-learning strategy by both groups and led to satisfactory results with the enrolled students.

Keywords: E-learning evaluation, self-learning, virtual classroom, virtual learning environments.

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar, Rakesh Kumar Bajaj

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The applicability of Net Present Value (NPV) in an investment project is becoming more and more popular in the field of engineering economics. The classical NPV methodology involves only the precise and accurate data of the investment project. In the present communication, we give a new mathematical model for NPV which uses the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy set theory. The proposed model is based on triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number, which may be known as Intuitionistic Fuzzy Net Present Value (IFNPV). The model has been applied to an example and the results are presented.

Keywords: Net Present Value, Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set, Investment Projects.

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Authors: Laura Álvarez Antón, Joaquín Díaz

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The construction industry is turning towards sustainability. It is a well-known fact that sustainability is based on a balance between environmental, social and economic aspects. In order to achieve sustainability efficiently, these three criteria should be taken into account in the initial project phases, since that is when a project can be influenced most effectively. Thus the aim must be to integrate important tools like BIM and LCA at an early stage in order to make full use of their potential. With the synergies resulting from the integration of BIM and LCA, a wider approach to sustainability becomes possible, covering the three pillars of sustainability.

Keywords: Building Information Modeling (BIM), Construction Industry, Design Phase, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Sustainability.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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In this paper, we introduce an e-collaborative learning circles methodology which utilizes the information and communication technologies (ICTs) in e-educational processes. In e-collaborative learning circles methodology, the teachers and students announce their research projects on various mailing lists and discussion boards using available ICTs. The teachers & moderators and students who are already members of the e-forums, discuss the project proposals in their classrooms sent out by the potential global partner schools and return the requested feed back to the proposing school(s) about their level of the participation and contribution in the research. In general, an e-collaborative learning circle project is implemented with a small and diverse group (usually 8-10 participants) from around the world. The students meet regularly over a period of weeks/months through the ICTs during the ecollaborative learning process. When the project is completed, a project product (e-book / DVD) is prepared and sent to the circle members. In this research, when taking into account the interests and motivation of the participating students with the facilitating role of the teacher(s), the students in each circle do research to obtain new data and information, thus enabling them to have the opportunity to meet both different cultures and international understandings across the globe. However, while the participants communicate along with the members in the circle they also practice and develop their communication language skills. Finally, teachers and students find the possibility to develop their skills in using the ICTs as well.

Keywords: Distance Education, Online Learning, Web BasedLearning, Learning Circles, e-Collaborative Learning Circles

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ryohei Orihara

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This paper proposes an improvement method of classification efficiency in a classification model. The model is used in a risk search system and extracts specific labels from articles posted at bulletin board sites. The system can analyze the important discussions composed of the articles. The improvement method introduces ensemble learning methods that use multiple classification models. Also, it introduces expressions related to the specific labels into generation of word vectors. The paper applies the improvement method to articles collected from three bulletin board sites selected by users and verifies the effectiveness of the improvement method.

Keywords: Text mining, Risk search system, Corporate reputation, Bulletin board site, Ensemble learning

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Authors: Mohammad Al Rawajbeh, Ahmad Haboush

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The primary aim of the e-government applications is the fast citizen service and the accomplishment of governmental functions. This paper discusses the knowledge management for egovernment development in the needs and role. The paper focused on analyzing the advantages of using knowledge management by using the existing IT technologies to maximize the government functions efficiency. The proposed new approach of providing government services is based on using Knowledge management as a part of e-government system.

Keywords: E-government, knowledge management, e-service, etools, governmental functions.

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Authors: Yoshiaki Takeda, Norifumi Aoyama, Takahiro Tanaami, Syouhei Honda, Kenta Tabata, Hiroyuki Kamata

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In this paper, we validate crater detection in moon surface image using FLDA. This proposal assumes that it is applied to SLIM (Smart Lander for Investigating Moon) project aiming at the pin-point landing to the moon surface. The point where the lander should land is judged by the position relations of the craters obtained via camera, so the real-time image processing becomes important element. Besides, in the SLIM project, 400kg-class lander is assumed, therefore, high-performance computers for image processing cannot be equipped. We are studying various crater detection methods such as Haar-Like features, LBP, and PCA. And we think these methods are appropriate to the project, however, to identify the unlearned images obtained by actual is insufficient. In this paper, we examine the crater detection using FLDA, and compare with the conventional methods.

Keywords: Crater Detection, Fisher Linear Discriminant Analysis , Haar-Like Feature, Image Processing.

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Authors: R. Maier, S. Thalmann, A. Sandow

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Organizations face challenges supporting knowledge workers due to their particular requirements for an environment supportive of their self-guided learning activities which are important to increase their productivity and to develop creative solutions to non-routine problems. Face-to-face knowledge sharing remains crucial in spite of a large number of knowledge management instruments that aim at supporting a more impersonal transfer of knowledge. This paper first describes the main criteria for a conceptual and technical solution targeted at flexible management of office space that aims at assigning those knowledge workers to the same room that are most likely to thrive when being brought together thus enhancing their knowledge work productivity. The paper reflects on lessons learned from the implementation and operation of such a solution in a project-focused organization and derives several implications for future extensions that target to foster problem solving, informal learning and personal development.

Keywords: informal learning, knowledge work, officemanagement.

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Authors: S. K. Appiah, E. N. Aidoo, D. Asamoah Owusu, M. W. Nuonabuor

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Urbanization remains one of the unique predominant factors which is linked to the destruction of urban environment and its associated cases of soil contamination by heavy metals through the natural and anthropogenic activities. These activities are important sources of toxic heavy metals such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn). Often, these heavy metals lead to increased levels in some areas due to the impact of atmospheric deposition caused by their proximity to industrial plants or the indiscriminately burning of substances. Information gathered on potentially hazardous levels of these heavy metals in soils leads to establish serious health and urban agriculture implications. However, characterization of spatial variations of soil contamination by heavy metals in Ghana is limited. Kumasi is a Metropolitan city in Ghana, West Africa and is challenged with the recent spate of deteriorating soil quality due to rapid economic development and other human activities such as “Galamsey”, illegal mining operations within the metropolis. The paper seeks to use both univariate and multivariate geostatistical techniques to assess the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils and the potential risk associated with ingestion of sources of soil contamination in the Metropolis. Geostatistical tools have the ability to detect changes in correlation structure and how a good knowledge of the study area can help to explain the different scales of variation detected. To achieve this task, point referenced data on heavy metals measured from topsoil samples in a previous study, were collected at various locations. Linear models of regionalisation and coregionalisation were fitted to all experimental semivariograms to describe the spatial dependence between the topsoil heavy metals at different spatial scales, which led to ordinary kriging and cokriging at unsampled locations and production of risk maps of soil contamination by these heavy metals. Results obtained from both the univariate and multivariate semivariogram models showed strong spatial dependence with range of autocorrelations ranging from 100 to 300 meters. The risk maps produced show strong spatial heterogeneity for almost all the soil heavy metals with extremely risk of contamination found close to areas with commercial and industrial activities. Hence, ongoing pollution interventions should be geared towards these highly risk areas for efficient management of soil contamination to avert further pollution in the metropolis.

Keywords: Coregionalization, ordinary cokriging, multivariate geostatistical analysis, soil contamination, soil heavy metals, risk maps, spatial distribution.

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Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

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Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: Security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package.

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Authors: Maja Sajdak

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The aim of this paper is to present the concept of an agile enterprise model and to initiate discussion on the research assumptions of the model presented. The implementation of the research project "The agility of enterprises in the process of adapting to the environment and its changes" began in August 2014 and is planned to last three years. The article has the form of a work-inprogress paper which aims to verify and initiate a debate over the proposed research model. In the literature there are very few publications relating to research into agility; it can be concluded that the most controversial issue in this regard is the method of measuring agility. In previous studies the operationalization of agility was often fragmentary, focusing only on selected areas of agility, for example manufacturing, or analysing only selected sectors. As a result the measures created to date can only be treated as contributory to the development of precise measurement tools. This research project aims to fill a cognitive gap in the literature with regard to the conceptualization and operationalization of an agile company. Thus, the original contribution of the author of this project is the construction of a theoretical model that integrates manufacturing agility (consisting mainly in adaptation to the environment) and strategic agility (based on proactive measures). The author of this research project is primarily interested in the attributes of an agile enterprise which indicate that the company is able to rapidly adapt to changing circumstances and behave pro-actively.

Keywords: Agile company, acuity, entrepreneurship, flexibility, research model, strategic leadership.

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Authors: Manisha Rathi, Thierry Chaussalet

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Hospital staff and managers are under pressure and concerned for effective use and management of scarce resources. The hospital admissions require many decisions that have complex and uncertain consequences for hospital resource utilization and patient flow. It is challenging to predict risk of admissions and length of stay of a patient due to their vague nature. There is no method to capture the vague definition of admission of a patient. Also, current methods and tools used to predict patients at risk of admission fail to deal with uncertainty in unplanned admission, LOS, patients- characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to deal with uncertainty in health system variables, and handles uncertain relationship among variables. An introduction of machine learning techniques along with statistical methods like Regression methods can be a proposed solution approach to handle uncertainty in health system variables. A model that adapts fuzzy methods to handle uncertain data and uncertain relationships can be an efficient solution to capture the vague definition of admission of a patient.

Keywords: Admission, Fuzzy, Regression, Uncertainty

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Authors: W. Maddison

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This paper describes an Action Research project which was undertaken to inform professional practice in order to develop a newly created Centre for Student Success in the specific context of transnational medical and nursing education in the Middle East. The objectives were to enhance the academic performance, persistence, integration and personal and professional development of a multinational study body, in particular in relation to pre-clinical medical students, and to establish a comfortable, friendly and student-driven environment within an Irish medical university recently established in Bahrain. The outcomes of the project resulted in the development of a specific student success ‘signature’ for this particular transnational higher education context.

Keywords: Global-Local, pre-clinical medical students, student success, transnational higher education, Middle East.

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Authors: Wenhua Hou, Xing Liu, Deqiang Chen

Abstract:

The ubiquitous payment problems within construction industry of China are notoriously hard to be resolved, thus lead to a series of impacts to the industry chain. Among of them, the most direct result is affecting the normal operation of contractors negatively. A wealth of research has already discussed reasons of the payment problems by introducing a number of possible improvement strategies. But the causalities of these problems are still far from harsh reality. In this paper, the authors propose a model for cash flow system of construction projects by introducing System Dynamics techniques to explore causal facets of the payment problem. The effects of payment arrears on both cash flow and profitability of project are simulated into four scenarios by using data from real projects. Simulating results show visible clues to help contractors quantitatively determining the consequences for the construction project that arise from payment delay.

Keywords: payment problems, cash flow, profitability, system dynamics.

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