Search results for: Business simulations

Authors: Daekook Kang, Wooseok Jang, Jeonghwan Jeon

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As Korea government has expanded the budget for the national research and development business, the need for the installation of institute taking a role of deliberation, coordination, and operation of research development business and its budget has been increased continuously. In response to the demands of the times, recently, the National Science & Technology Council (NSTC) was installed. However, to achieve a creative economy more efficiently, the fundamental introspection on the current state of the national administration system of science and technology in Korea should be needed. Accordingly, this study, firstly, analyzes the function and organizational structure of NSTC in Korea. Then, this study investigates the current state of the National Science and Technology Council in main world countries. Lastly, this study derives some implications based on the comparison analysis of the current state of the National Science and Technology Council between Korea and these countries. The present study will help in finding the way for the advancement of the NSTC in Korea.

Keywords: Comparison analysis of Science and Technology Council, CSTP, National Science and Technology Council in Korea, Operating system of NSTC.

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Authors: Alessandro Barbiero

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In this paper some procedures for building confidence intervals for the reliability in stress-strength models are discussed and empirically compared. The particular case of a bivariate normal setup is considered. The confidence intervals suggested are obtained employing approximations or asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators. The coverage and the precision of these intervals are empirically checked through a simulation study. An application to real paired data is also provided.

Keywords: Approximate estimators, asymptotic theory, confidence interval, Monte Carlo simulations, stress-strength, variance estimation.

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Authors: Francis William S, Imtiaz Ahmed Choudhury, Ananda Kumar Eriki, A. John Rajan

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Diesel Engines emit complex mixtures of inorganic and organic compounds in the form of both solid and vapour phase particles. Most of the particulates released are ultrafine nanoparticles which are detrimental to human health and can easily enter the body by respiration. The emissions standards on particulate matter release from diesel engines are constantly upgraded within the European Union and with future regulations based on the particles numbers released instead of merely mass, the need for effective aftertreatment devices will increase. Standard particulate filters in the form of wall flow filters can have problems with high soot accumulation, producing a large exhaust backpressure. A potential solution would be to combine the standard filter with a flow through filter to reduce the load on the wall flow filter. In this paper soot particle trapping has been simulated in different continuous flow filters of monolithic structure including the use of promoters, at laminar flow conditions. An Euler Lagrange model, the discrete phase model in Ansys used with user defined functions for forces acting on particles. A method to quickly screen trapping of 5 nm and 10 nm particles in different catalysts designs with tracers was also developed. Simulations of square duct monoliths with promoters show that the strength of the vortices produced are not enough to give a high amount of particle deposition on the catalyst walls. The smallest particles in the simulations, 5 and 10 nm particles were trapped to a higher extent, than larger particles up to 1000 nm, in all studied geometries with the predominant deposition mechanism being Brownian diffusion. The comparison of the different filters designed with a wall flow filter does show that the options for altering a design of a flow through filter, without imposing a too large pressure drop penalty are good.

Keywords: Diesel Engine trap, thermophoresis, Exhaust pipe, PM-Simulation modeling.

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Authors: Wei-Yi Yang, Li-Hui Lee, Hsiao-Li Gien, Hsing-Yi Chu, Yi-Ting Chou, Der-Ming Liou

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The American Health Level Seven (HL7) Reference Information Model (RIM) consists of six back-bone classes that have different specialized attributes. Furthermore, for the purpose of enforcing the semantic expression, there are some specific mandatory vocabulary domains have been defined for representing the content values of some attributes. In the light of the fact that it is a duplicated effort on spending a lot of time and human cost to develop and modify Clinical Information Systems (CIS) for most hospitals due to the variety of workflows. This study attempts to design and develop sharing RIM-based components of the CIS for the different business processes. Therefore, the CIS contains data of a consistent format and type. The programmers can do transactions with the RIM-based clinical repository by the sharing RIM-based components. And when developing functions of the CIS, the sharing components also can be adopted in the system. These components not only satisfy physicians- needs in using a CIS but also reduce the time of developing new components of a system. All in all, this study provides a new viewpoint that integrating the data and functions with the business processes, it is an easy and flexible approach to build a new CIS.

Keywords: HL7, Reference Information Model (RIM), web service, process management.

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: Structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, mixing approaches, point estimate method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: J. Zambujal-Oliveira

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The relation between taxation states and foreign direct investment has been studied for several perspectives and with states of different levels of development. Usually it's only considered the impact of tax level on the foreign direct investment volume. This paper enhances this view by assuming that multinationals companies (MNC) can use transfer prices systems and have got investment timing flexibility. Thus, it evaluates the impact of the use of international transfer pricing systems on the states- policy and on the investment timing of the multinational companies. In uncertain business environments (with periodical release of news), the investment can increase if MNC detain investment delay options. This paper shows how tax differentials can attract foreign direct investments (FDI) and influence MNC behavior. The equilibrium is set in a global environment where MNC can shift their profits between states depending on the corporate tax rates. Assuming the use of transfer pricing schemes, this paper confirms the relationship between MNC behavior and the release of new business news.

Keywords: Corporate Taxation, International Profit Shifting, Real Options

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Authors: Jian Yao, Chengwen Yan

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The principle concern of this paper is to determine the impact of solar absorption coefficient of external wall on building energy consumption. Simulations were carried out on a typical residential building by using the simulation Toolkit DeST-h. Results show that reducing solar absorption coefficient leads to a great reduction in building energy consumption and thus light-colored materials are suitable.

Keywords: Solar absorption coefficient, External wall, Buildingenergy consumption.

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Authors: Kazuki Kamada, Haruka Yamashita

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In Japan, taxi is one of the popular transportations and taxi industry is one of the big businesses. However, in recent years, there has been a difficult problem of reducing the number of taxi drivers. In the taxi business, mainly three passenger catching methods are applied. One style is "cruising" that drivers catches passengers while driving on a road. Second is "waiting" that waits passengers near by the places with many requirements for taxies such as entrances of hospitals, train stations. The third one is "dispatching" that is allocated based on the contact from the taxi company. Above all, the cruising taxi drivers need the experience and intuition for finding passengers, and it is difficult to decide "the destination for cruising". The strong recommendation system for the cruising taxies supports the new drivers to find passengers, and it can be the solution for the decreasing the number of drivers in the taxi industry. In this research, we propose a method of recommending a destination for cruising taxi drivers. On the other hand, as a machine learning technique, the embedding models that embed the high dimensional data to a low dimensional space is widely used for the data analysis, in order to represent the relationship of the meaning between the data clearly. Taxi drivers have their favorite courses based on their experiences, and the courses are different for each driver. We assume that the course of cruising taxies has meaning such as the course for finding business man passengers (go around the business area of the city of go to main stations) and course for finding traveler passengers (go around the sightseeing places or big hotels), and extract the meaning of their destinations. We analyze the cruising history data of taxis based on the embedding model and propose the recommendation system for passengers. Finally, we demonstrate the recommendation of destinations for cruising taxi drivers based on the real-world data analysis using proposing method.

Keywords: Taxi industry, decision making, recommendation system, embedding model.

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Authors: Narong Anurak

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The objective of this research was to study Brand Position Communication Channel in Brand Building in Rajabhat University Affecting Decision Making of Higher Education from of qualitative research and in-depth interview with executive members Rajabhat University and also quantitative by questionnaires which are personal data of students, study of the acceptance and the finding of the information of Rajabhat University, study of pattern or Brand Position Communication Channel affecting the decision making of studying in Rajabhat University and the result of the communication in Brand Position Communication Channel. It is found that online channel and word of mount are highly important and necessary for education business since media channel is a tool and the management of marketing communication to create brand awareness, brand credibility and to achieve the high acclaim in terms of bringing out qualified graduates. Also, off-line channel can enable the institution to survive from the high competition especially in education business regarding management of the Rajabhat University. Therefore, Rajabhat University has to communicate by the various communication channel strategies for brand building for attractive student to make decision making of higher education.

Keywords: Brand Position, Communication Channel, Rajabhat University.

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Authors: Anuraj Singh, Sunita Gakkhar

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The three-species food web model proposed and investigated by Gakkhar and Naji is known to have chaotic behaviour for a choice of parameters. An attempt has been made to synchronize the chaos in the model using bidirectional coupling. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the analytical results. Numerical results show that for higher value of coupling strength, chaotic synchronization is achieved. Chaos can be controlled to achieve stable synchronization in natural systems.

Keywords: Lyapunov Exponent, Bidirectional Coupling, ChaosSynchronization, Synchronization Manifold

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Authors: Takao Sakakura, Kazunori Fujimoto

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This paper proposes an analytical method for the dynamics of generating firms- alliance networks along with business phases. Dynamics in network developments have previously been discussed in the research areas of organizational strategy rather than in the areas of regional cluster, where the static properties of the networks are often discussed. The analytical method introduces the concept of business phases into innovation processes and uses relationships called prior experiences; this idea was developed in organizational strategy to investigate the state of networks from the viewpoints of tradeoffs between link stabilization and node exploration. This paper also discusses the results of the analytical method using five cases of the network developments of firms. The idea of Embeddedness helps interpret the backgrounds of the analytical results. The analytical method is useful for policymakers of regional clusters to establish concrete evaluation targets and a viewpoint for comparisons of policy programs.

Keywords: Regional Clusters, Alliance Networks, Innovation Processes, Prior Experiences, Embeddedness.

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Authors: Diako Azizi, Hosein Heydari, Ahmad Gholami

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Today with the rapid growth of telecommunications equipment, electronic and developing more and more networks of power, influence of electromagnetic waves on one another has become hot topic discussions. So in this article, this issue and appropriate mechanisms for EMC operations have been presented. First, impact of high voltage lines on the surrounding environment especially on the control room has been investigated, then to reduce electromagnetic radiation, various methods of shielding are provided and shielding effectiveness of them has been compared. It should be expressed that simulations have been done by the finite element method (FEM).

Keywords: Electrical field, EMC, field distribution, finite element method

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Authors: Alaa E. Abdallah, Bajes Y. Alskarnah

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Ant colony based routing algorithms are known to grantee the packet delivery, but they suffer from the huge overhead of control messages which are needed to discover the route. In this paper we utilize the network nodes positions to group the nodes in connected clusters. We use clusters-heads only on forwarding the route discovery control messages. Our simulations proved that the new algorithm has decreased the overhead dramatically without affecting the delivery rate.

Keywords: Ant colony-based routing, position-based routing, MANET.

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Taha Anjamrooz, Salwa Bheiry

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Sustainability of construction projects is an important issue to be addressed since the sector will continue to be developed in the coming years, especially in developing countries. Thus, it is significant to discover approaches and solutions for improving sustainability. Currently, the construction industry is the largest consumer of natural resources. This is the same in other countries in the Gulf region, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has limited natural resources such as water, electricity, etc. Recently, the UAE has taken several actions in order to implement sustainable initiatives within its construction industry. Within the industry, the contractors’ role is significant in promoting sustainable development by taking the responsibility to minimize their negative impacts on the environment and society, and maximize their economic distribution. In this research, sustainability will be studied as an important key to bring competitive advantages to contracting organizations. The contractors should understand the need to improve their sustainable performance in order to expand their business competitiveness. Competitiveness at the construction project level refers to a contractor’s ability to compete for a project. There is less focus on how to improve contractors’ competitiveness by implementing sustainable construction practices. Based on an inclusive literature review on the relationship between sustainability performance and business competitiveness, this research will conduct a study of sustainable practice in the construction industry and the relationship between sustainability performance and business competitiveness in order to develop a framework for evaluating how contractors can improve their competitiveness in terms of more efficient processes, enhancements in productivity, and lower costs of compliance in order to reduce the initial project cost and obtain market opportunities in the UAE. The research findings will provide a framework that can be a useful guideline for contractors to develop their sustainability policy, strategy and practice for meeting the increased requirements for sustainable development in construction.

Keywords: Sustainable construction practice, sustainability, competitiveness, construction industry, contractors.

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Authors: Ayman El-Garem, Riham Adel

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Digital transformation is about identifying the necessary changes of the entire business model, rethinking how to transform the traditional operations into digital ones that can create better value to its customers. Efforts are common across industries, but they often fail due to a lack of understanding of the factors required to focus on and change to be able to embark in digital transformation successfully. Further research is required to bridge the knowledge gap between academia and industry to support companies starting their digital transformation journey. To date there is no consensus on digital transformation key success factors. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to identify the success factors in digital transformation journey, throughout conducting a systematic literature review of 134 peer-reviewed articles to get better insights regarding the research progress in this field.  After completing the systematic literature review it will be followed by Delphi study to get experts consensus on the most significant factors affecting digital transformation implementation. The findings indicate that organizations undergoing digital transformation should focus mainly on (1) well managed digital transformation activities; (2) digital business strategy; (3) supportive culture; (4) top management support; (5) organizational change capabilities.

Keywords: Digital transformation, key success factors, literature review, Delphi study.

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Authors: Mohammad Shams Esfand Abadi, Nader Hadizadeh Kashani, Vahid Mehrdad

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In this paper we present a general formalism for the establishment of the family of selective regressor affine projection algorithms (SR-APA). The SR-APA, the SR regularized APA (SR-RAPA), the SR partial rank algorithm (SR-PRA), the SR binormalized data reusing least mean squares (SR-BNDR-LMS), and the SR normalized LMS with orthogonal correction factors (SR-NLMS-OCF) algorithms are established by this general formalism. We demonstrate the performance of the presented algorithms through simulations in acoustic echo cancellation scenario.

Keywords: Adaptive filter, affine projection, selective regressor.

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Authors: Majid Reza Naseh, Mohammad Haeri

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This paper introduces an adaptive control scheme to synchronize two identical Chua's systems. Introductory part of the paper is presented in the first part of the paper and then in the second part, a new theorem is proposed based on which an adaptive control scheme is developed to synchronize two identical modified Chua's circuit. Finally, numerical simulations are included to verify the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

Keywords: Chaos synchronization, adaptive control, Chua's circuits.

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Authors: R. Kongnuy, P. Pongsumpun

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We used mathematical model to study the transmission of dengue disease. The model is developed in which the human population is separated into two populations, pregnant and non-pregnant humans. The dynamical analysis method is used for analyzing this modified model. Two equilibrium states are found and the conditions for stability of theses two equilibrium states are established. Numerical results are shown for each equilibrium state. The basic reproduction numbers are found and they are compared by using numerical simulations.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number, dengue disease, equilibrium states, pregnancy.

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Authors: Sukru Merey, Caglar Sinayuc

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Gas hydrate deposits which are found in deep ocean sediments and in permafrost regions are supposed to be a fossil fuel reserve for the future. The Black Sea is also considered rich in terms of gas hydrates. It abundantly contains gas hydrates as methane (CH₄~80 to 99.9%) source. In this study, by using the literature, seismic and other data of the Black Sea such as salinity, porosity of the sediments, common gas type, temperature distribution and pressure gradient, the optimum gas production method for the Black Sea gas hydrates was selected as mainly depressurization method. Numerical simulations were run to analyze gas production from gas hydrate deposited in turbidites in the Black Sea by depressurization.

Keywords: Black Sea hydrates, depressurization, turbidites, HydrateResSim.

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Authors: A. Douara, N. Kermas, B. Djellouli

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In this study, we report calculations of gate capacitance of AlGaN/GaN HEMTs with nextnano device simulation software. We have used a physical gate capacitance model for III-V FETs that incorporates quantum capacitance and centroid capacitance in the channel. These simulations explore various device structures with different values of barrier thickness and channel thickness. A detailed understanding of the impact of gate capacitance in HEMTs will allow us to determine their role in future 10 nm physical gate length node.

Keywords: AlGaN/GaN, centroid capacitance, gate capacitance, HEMT, quantum capacitance.

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Authors: A. Hol

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Electronic mediums such as websites, feeds, blogs and social media sites are on a daily basis influencing our decision making, are improving our productivity and are shaping futures of many consumers and service/product providers. This research identifies that both customers and business providers heavily rely on smart phone applications. Based on this, mobile applications available on iTunes store were studied. It was identified that fruit and vegetable related applications used by consumers can broadly be categorized into purchase applications, diaries, tracking health applications, trip farm location and cooking applications. On the other hand, applications used by farmers can broadly be classified as: weather tracking, pests / fertilizer applications and general social media applications such as Facebook. To blur this farmer-consumer application divide, our research utilizes Context Specific eTransformation Framework and based on it identifies characteristic future consumer-farmer applications will need to have so that the current divide can be narrowed and consequently better farmerconsumer supply chain link established.

Keywords: Smart Phone Applications, SME, Farmers, Consumer, Fruit and Vegetable, Technology, Business Innovation.

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Authors: Siyanda S. Biyela, Willie A. Cronje

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This paper presents a desktop study of comparing two different wave energy to electricity technologies (WECs) using a techno-economic approach. This techno-economic approach forms basis of a framework for rapid comparison of current and future technologies. The approach also seeks to assist in investment and strategic decision making expediting future deployment of wave energy harvesting in South Africa.

Keywords: Cost of energy, tool, wave energy converter, WEC-Sim.

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Authors: Sanja Seljan, Ivan Dunđer

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The paper presents combined automatic speech recognition (ASR) of English and machine translation (MT) for English and Croatian and Croatian-English language pairs in the domain of business correspondence. The first part presents results of training the ASR commercial system on English data sets, enriched by error analysis. The second part presents results of machine translation performed by free online tool for English and Croatian and Croatian-English language pairs. Human evaluation in terms of usability is conducted and internal consistency calculated by Cronbach's alpha coefficient, enriched by error analysis. Automatic evaluation is performed by WER (Word Error Rate) and PER (Position-independent word Error Rate) metrics, followed by investigation of Pearson’s correlation with human evaluation.

Keywords: Automatic machine translation, integrated language technologies, quality evaluation, speech recognition.

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Authors: Emin Islam Tatlı, Dirk Stegemann, Stefan Lucks

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Encryption protects communication partners from disclosure of their secret messages but cannot prevent traffic analysis and the leakage of information about “who communicates with whom". In the presence of collaborating adversaries, this linkability of actions can danger anonymity. However, reliably providing anonymity is crucial in many applications. Especially in contextaware mobile business, where mobile users equipped with PDAs request and receive services from service providers, providing anonymous communication is mission-critical and challenging at the same time. Firstly, the limited performance of mobile devices does not allow for heavy use of expensive public-key operations which are commonly used in anonymity protocols. Moreover, the demands for security depend on the application (e.g., mobile dating vs. pizza delivery service), but different users (e.g., a celebrity vs. a normal person) may even require different security levels for the same application. Considering both hardware limitations of mobile devices and different sensitivity of users, we propose an anonymity framework that is dynamically configurable according to user and application preferences. Our framework is based on Chaum-s mixnet. We explain the proposed framework, its configuration parameters for the dynamic behavior and the algorithm to enforce dynamic anonymity.

Keywords: Anonymity, context-awareness, mix-net, mobile business, policy management

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Authors: Joanna Błach, Anna Doś, Maria Gorczyńska, Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala

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Financial innovations can be regarded as the cause and the effect of the evolution of the financial system. Most of financial innovations are created by various financial institutions for their own purposes and needs. However, due to their diversity, financial innovations can be also applied by various business entities (other than financial institutions). This paper focuses on the potential application of financial innovations by non-financial companies. It is assumed that financial innovations may be effectively applied in all fields of corporate financial decisions integrating financial management with the risk management process. Appropriate application of financial innovations may enhance the development of the company and increase its value by improving its financial situation and reducing the level of risk. On the other hand, misused financial innovations may become the source of extra risk for the company threatening its further operation. The main objective of the paper is to identify the major types of financial innovations offered to non-financial companies by the banking system in Poland. It also aims at identifying the main factors determining the creation of financial innovations in the banking system in Poland and indicating future directions of their development. This paper consists of conceptual and empirical part. Conceptual part based on theoretical study is focused on the determinants of the process of financial innovations and their application by the nonfinancial companies. Theoretical study is followed by the empirical research based on the analysis of the actual offer of the 20 biggest banks operating in Poland with regard to financial innovations offered to SMEs and large corporations. These innovations are classified according to the main functions of the integrated financial management, such as financing, investment, working capital management and risk management. Empirical study has proved that the biggest banks operating in the Polish market offer to their business customers many types and classes of financial innovations. This offer appears vast and adequate to the needs and purposes of the Polish non-financial companies. It was observed that financial innovations pertained to financing decisions dominate in the banks’ offer. However, due to high diversification of the offered financial innovations, business customers may effectively apply them in all fields and areas of integrated financial management. It should be underlined, that the banks’ offer is highly dispersed, which may limit the implementation of financial innovations in the corporate finance. It would be also recommended for the banks operating in the Polish market to intensify the education campaign aiming at increasing knowledge about financial innovations among business customers.

Keywords: Banking products and services, banking sector in Poland, corporate financial management, financial innovations, theory of innovation.

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Authors: Sathya Narayanan V., Sidharth P., Sanal Kumar. V. R.

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The success of any retail business is predisposed by its swift response and its knack in understanding the constraints and the requirements of customers. In this paper a conceptual design model of an automated customer-friendly supermarket has been proposed. In this model a 10-sided, space benefited, regular polygon shaped gravity shelves have been designed for goods storage and effective customer-specific algorithms have been built-in for quick automatic delivery of the randomly listed goods. The algorithm is developed with two main objectives, viz., delivery time and priority. For meeting these objectives the randomly listed items are reorganized according to the critical-path of the robotic arm specific to the identified shop and its layout and the items are categorized according to the demand, shape, size, similarity and nature of the product for an efficient pick-up, packing and delivery process. We conjectured that the proposed automated supermarket model reduces business operating costs with much customer satisfaction warranting a winwin situation.

Keywords: Automated Supermarket, Electronic Shopping, Polygon-shaped Rack, Shortest Path Algorithm for Shopping.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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Authors: S. H. Yahaya, J. M. Ali, M. R. Arham

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This paper presents the analysis of duct design using static and dynamic approaches. The static approach is used to find out applicability between the design and material applied. The material used in this paper is Thermoplastic Olefins (TPO). For the dynamic approach, the focusing is only on the CFD simulations. The fatigue life in this design and material applied also covered.

Keywords: CFD, structural analysis, fluid analysis, duct design, fatigue life

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Authors: Luca Indovina, Carmela Coppola, Carlo Altucci, Riccardo Barberi, Rocco Romano

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In this paper a real court case, held in Italy at the Court of Nola, in which a correct physical description, conducted with both a Monte Carlo and biophysical analysis, would have been sufficient to arrive at conclusions confirmed by documentary evidence, is considered. This will be an example of how forensic physics can be useful in confirming documentary evidence in order to reach hardly questionable conclusions. This was a libel trial in which the defendant, Mr. DS (Defendant for Slander), had falsely accused one of his neighbors, Mr. OP (Offended Person), of having caused him some damages. The damages would have been caused by an external plaster piece that would have detached from the neighbor’s property and would have hit Mr DS while he was in his garden, much more than a meter far away from the facade of the building from which the plaster piece would have detached. In the trial, Mr. DS claimed to have suffered a scratch on his forehead, but he never showed the plaster that had hit him, nor was able to tell from where the plaster would have arrived. Furthermore, Mr. DS presented a medical certificate with a diagnosis of contusion of the cerebral cortex. On the contrary, the images of Mr. OP’s security cameras do not show any movement in the garden of Mr. DS in a long interval of time (about 2 hours) around the time of the alleged accident, nor do they show any people entering or coming out from the house of Mr. DS in the same interval of time. Biophysical analysis shows that both the diagnosis of the medical certificate and the wound declared by the defendant, already in conflict with each other, are not compatible with the fall of external plaster pieces too small to be found. The wind was at a level 1 of the Beaufort scale, that is, unable to raise even dust (level 4 of the Beaufort scale). Therefore, the motion of the plaster pieces can be described as a projectile motion, whereas collisions with the building cornice can be treated using Newtons law of coefficients of restitution. Numerous numerical Monte Carlo simulations show that the pieces of plaster would not have been able to reach even the garden of Mr. DS, let alone a distance over 1.30 meters. Results agree with the documentary evidence (images of Mr. OP’s security cameras) that Mr. DS could not have been hit by plaster pieces coming from Mr. OP’s property.

Keywords: Biophysical analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, Newton’s law of restitution, projectile motion.

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Authors: H.Panahi, S.Asadi

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In this article, we consider the estimation of P[Y < X], when strength, X and stress, Y are two independent variables of Burr Type XII distribution. The MLE of the R based on one simple iterative procedure is obtained. Assuming that the common parameter is known, the maximum likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and Bayes estimator of P[Y < X] are discussed. The exact confidence interval of the R is also obtained. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods.

Keywords: Stress-Strength model, Maximum likelihood estimator, Bayes estimator, Burr type XII distribution.

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