Search results for: prior and posterior distribution

Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method which applies an artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) for capacitor placement in distribution systems with an objective of improving the voltage profile and reduction of power loss. The ABC algorithm is a new population based meta heuristic approach inspired by intelligent foraging behavior of honeybee swarm. The advantage of ABC algorithm is that it does not require external parameters such as cross over rate and mutation rate as in case of genetic algorithm and differential evolution and it is hard to determine these parameters in prior. The other advantage is that the global search ability in the algorithm is implemented by introducing neighborhood source production mechanism which is a similar to mutation process. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed algorithm, computer simulations are carried out on 69-bus system and compared the results with the other approach available in the literature. The proposed method has outperformed the other methods in terms of the quality of solution and computational efficiency.

Keywords: Distribution system, Capacitor Placement, Loss reduction, Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm.

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Authors: L. Korpinen, P. Taskinen, P. Rautio

Abstract:

This study aimed to describe procedures that we developed to use in the quantitative, bone-specific SPECT/CT at our hospital. Our procedures included the following questions for choosing imaging protocols, which were based on a clinical doctor's referral: (1) Is she/he a cancer patient or not? (2) Are there any indications of inflammatory rheumatoid arthritis? We performed about 1,106 skeletal scintigraphies over two years. About 394 patients were studied with quantitative bone-specific single-photon emission computed tomography/computerized tomography (SPECT/CT) (i.e., about 36% of all bone scintigraphies). Approximately 64% of the patients were studied using the conventional Anterior-Posterior/Posterior-Anterior imaging. Our procedure has improved efficiency and decreased cycle times.

Keywords: Skeletal scintigraphy, SPECT/CT, imaging.

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Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

Abstract:

The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: Decision support system distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management.

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

Abstract:

Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

Abstract:

Performance of a supply chain is directly related to a distribution network that entails the location of storing materials or products and how products are delivered to the end customer through different stages in the supply chain. This study analyses the current distribution network used for delivering gas cylinders to end customer in Jordan. Evaluation of current distribution has been conducted across customer service components. A modification on the current distribution network in terms of central warehousing in each city in the country improves the response time and customer experience. 

Keywords: Distribution network, gas cylinder, Jordan, supply chain.

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Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

Abstract:

We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of a simulation study. 

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood.

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Authors: L.Ramesh, S.P.Chowdhury, S.Chowdhury, A.A.Natarajan, C.T.Gaunt

Abstract:

Accurate loss minimization is the critical component for efficient electrical distribution power flow .The contribution of this work presents loss minimization in power distribution system through feeder restructuring, incorporating DG and placement of capacitor. The study of this work was conducted on IEEE distribution network and India Electricity Board benchmark distribution system. The executed experimental result of Indian system is recommended to board and implement practically for regulated stable output.

Keywords: Distribution system, Distributed Generation LossMinimization, Network Restructuring

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Authors: Alan C. Lin, Dean K. Sheu

Abstract:

This paper aims to study the methodology of building the knowledge of planning adequate punches in order to complete the task of strip layout for shearing processes, using progressive dies. The proposed methodology uses die design rules and characteristics of different types of punches to classify them into five groups: prior use (the punches must be used first), posterior use (must be used last), compatible use (may be used together), sequential use (certain punches must precede some others) and simultaneous use (must be used together). With these five groups of punches, the searching space of feasible designs will be greatly reduced, and superimposition becomes a more effective method of punch layout. The superimposition scheme will generate many feasible solutions, an evaluation function based on number of stages, moment balancing and strip stability is developed for helping designers to find better solutions.

Keywords: Manufacturing systems, advances in metal forming, computer-aided design, progressive die.

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

Abstract:

Performance of different filtering approaches depends on modeling of dynamical system and algorithm structure. For modeling and smoothing the data the evaluation of posterior distribution in different filtering approach should be chosen carefully. In this paper different filtering approaches like filter KALMAN, EKF, UKF, EKS and smoother RTS is simulated in some trajectory tracking of path and accuracy and limitation of these approaches are explained. Then probability of model with different filters is compered and finally the effect of the noise variance to estimation is described with simulations results.

Keywords: Gaussian approximation, KALMAN smoother, Parameter estimation.

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Authors: S. B. Mansuri

Abstract:

In this paper, at first we explain about negative hypergeometric distribution and its properties. Then we use the w-function and the Stein identity to give a result on the poisson approximation to the negative hypergeometric distribution in terms of the total variation distance between the negative hypergeometric and poisson distributions and its upper bound.

Keywords: Negative hypergeometric distribution, Poisson distribution, Poisson approximation, Stein-Chen identity, w-function.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Baradaran Ghahfarokhi, Parvin Baradaran Ghahfarokhi

Abstract:

In this paper, first we introduce the stable distribution, stable process and theirs characteristics. The a -stable distribution family has received great interest in the last decade due to its success in modeling data, which are too impulsive to be accommodated by the Gaussian distribution. In the second part, we propose major applications of alpha stable distribution in telecommunication, computer science such as network delays and signal processing and financial markets. At the end, we focus on using stable distribution to estimate measure of risk in stock markets and show simulated data with statistical softwares.

Keywords: stable distribution, SaS, infinite variance, heavy tail networks, VaR.

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Authors: K. Jayakumar, S. Thangavel

Abstract:

In this paper proposed the effective fault detection of industrial drives by using Biorthogonal Posterior Vibration Signal-Data Probabilistic Wavelet Neural Network (BPPVS-WNN) system. This system was focused to reducing the current flow and to identify faults with lesser execution time with harmonic values obtained through fifth derivative. Initially, the construction of Biorthogonal vibration signal-data based wavelet transform in BPPVS-WNN system localizes the time and frequency domain. The Biorthogonal wavelet approximates the broken bearing using double scaling and factor, identifies the transient disturbance due to fault on induction motor through approximate coefficients and detailed coefficient. Posterior Probabilistic Neural Network detects the final level of faults using the detailed coefficient till fifth derivative and the results obtained through it at a faster rate at constant frequency signal on the industrial drive. Experiment through the Simulink tool detects the healthy and unhealthy motor on measuring parametric factors such as fault detection rate based on time, current flow rate, and execution time.

Keywords: Biorthogonal Wavelet Transform, Posterior Probabilistic Neural Network, Induction Motor.

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Authors: P. Waiyawuththanapoom

Abstract:

This research is objected to study the pattern and channel of distribution of Ang Thong’s court doll OTOP product and try to develop the quality of distribution of the court doll product. The population of this research is 50 court doll manufacturers of Ang Thong’s court doll. The data and information was collected by using the questionnaire and use percentage, mean and standard deviation as an analysis tools. The distribution channel of Ang Thong’s court doll can be separated into 3 channels which are direct distribution from the manufacturer, via the middleman and via the co-operated manufacturing group. In the direct distribution from the manufacturer channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to how they keep the inventory. In the distribution via the middleman channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the distribution efficiency. But in the distribution via the co-operated manufacturing group, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the public relationship.

Keywords: Distribution, Court Doll, Ang Thong Province.

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Authors: Wei Zhang, Yao-Yu Li, Yi-Fan Zhu, Qun Li, Wei-Ping Wang

Abstract:

It-s known that incorporating prior knowledge into support vector regression (SVR) can help to improve the approximation performance. Most of researches are concerned with the incorporation of knowledge in the form of numerical relationships. Little work, however, has been done to incorporate the prior knowledge on the structural relationships among the variables (referred as to Structural Prior Knowledge, SPK). This paper explores the incorporation of SPK in SVR by constructing appropriate admissible support vector kernel (SV kernel) based on the properties of reproducing kernel (R.K). Three-levels specifications of SPK are studied with the corresponding sub-levels of prior knowledge that can be considered for the method. These include Hierarchical SPK (HSPK), Interactional SPK (ISPK) consisting of independence, global and local interaction, Functional SPK (FSPK) composed of exterior-FSPK and interior-FSPK. A convenient tool for describing the SPK, namely Description Matrix of SPK is introduced. Subsequently, a new SVR, namely Motivated Support Vector Regression (MSVR) whose structure is motivated in part by SPK, is proposed. Synthetic examples show that it is possible to incorporate a wide variety of SPK and helpful to improve the approximation performance in complex cases. The benefits of MSVR are finally shown on a real-life military application, Air-toground battle simulation, which shows great potential for MSVR to the complex military applications.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, structural prior knowledge, motivated support vector regression

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Authors: Wei Zhang, Yao-Yu Li, Yi-Fan Zhu, Qun Li, Wei-Ping Wang

Abstract:

It-s known that incorporating prior knowledge into support vector regression (SVR) can help to improve the approximation performance. Most of researches are concerned with the incorporation of knowledge in form of numerical relationships. Little work, however, has been done to incorporate the prior knowledge on the structural relationships among the variables (referred as to Structural Prior Knowledge, SPK). This paper explores the incorporation of SPK in SVR by constructing appropriate admissible support vector kernel (SV kernel) based on the properties of reproducing kernel (R.K). Three-levels specifications of SPK are studies with the corresponding sub-levels of prior knowledge that can be considered for the method. These include Hierarchical SPK (HSPK), Interactional SPK (ISPK) consisting of independence, global and local interaction, Functional SPK (FSPK) composed of exterior-FSPK and interior-FSPK. A convenient tool for describing the SPK, namely Description Matrix of SPK is introduced. Subsequently, a new SVR, namely Motivated Support Vector Regression (MSVR) whose structure is motivated in part by SPK, is proposed. Synthetic examples show that it is possible to incorporate a wide variety of SPK and helpful to improve the approximation performance in complex cases. The benefits of MSVR are finally shown on a real-life military application, Air-toground battle simulation, which shows great potential for MSVR to the complex military applications.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, structural prior knowledge, motivated support vector regression

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Authors: Hyeongbok Kim, Lingling Zhao, Xiaohong Su, Junjie Wang

Abstract:

The Bernoulli filter is a precise Bayesian filter for single target tracking based on the random finite set theory. The standard Bernoulli filter often underestimates the number of the targets. This study proposes a Gaussian particle flow (GPF) Bernoulli filter employing particle flow to migrate particles from prior to posterior positions to improve the performance of the standard Bernoulli filter. By employing the particle flow filter, the computational speed of the Bernoulli filters is significantly improved. In addition, the GPF Bernoulli filter provides more accurate estimation compared with that of the standard Bernoulli filter. Simulation results confirm the improved tracking performance and computational speed in two- and three-dimensional scenarios compared with other algorithms.

Keywords: Bernoulli filter, particle filter, particle flow filter, random finite sets, target tracking.

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Authors: S. Thongkeaw, M. Boonthienthong

Abstract:

This paper presents the techniques for voltage control in distribution system. It is integrated in the distribution management system. Voltage is an important parameter for the control of electrical power systems. The distribution network operators have the responsibility to regulate the voltage supplied to consumer within statutory limits. Traditionally, the On-Load Tap Changer (OLTC) transformer equipped with automatic voltage control (AVC) relays is the most popular and effective voltage control device. A static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) may be equipped with several controllers to perform multiple control functions. Static Var Compensation (SVC) is regulation slopes and available margins for var dispatch. The voltage control in distribution networks is established as a centralized analytical function in this paper. 

Keywords: Voltage Control, Reactive Power, Distribution System.

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Authors: C. Y. Chen

Abstract:

As the global climate changes, the threat from landslides and debris flows increases. Learning how a watershed initiates landslides under abnormal rainfall conditions and predicting landslide magnitude and frequency distribution is thus important. Landslides show a power-law distribution in the frequency-area distribution. The distribution curve shows an exponent gradient 1.0 in the Sandpile model test. Will the landslide frequency-area statistics show a distribution similar to the Sandpile model under extreme rainfall conditions? The purpose of the study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan. Results of the analysis show that a lower gradient of landslide frequency-area distribution could be attributed to the transportation and deposition of debris flow areas that are included in the landslide area.

Keywords: Landslide, power-law distribution, GIS.

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Authors: T. Lantharthong, N. Phanthuna

Abstract:

This paper presents reliability evaluation techniques which are applied in distribution system planning studies and operation. Reliability of distribution systems is an important issue in power engineering for both utilities and customers. Reliability is a key issue in the design and operation of electric power distribution systems and load. Reliability evaluation of distribution systems has been the subject of many recent papers and the modeling and evaluation techniques have improved considerably.

Keywords: Reliability Evaluation, Optimization Technique, Reliability Indices

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, T. Langtharthong

Abstract:

This paper presents the optimal placement and sizing of distributed generation (DG) in a distribution system. The problem is to reliability improvement of distribution system with distributed generations. The technique employed to solve the minimization problem is based on a developed Tabu search algorithm and reliability worth analysis. The developed methodology is tested with a distribution system of Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) bus 2. It can be seen from the case study that distributed generation can reduce the customer interruption cost and therefore improve the reliability of the system. It is expected that our proposed method will be utilized effectively for distribution system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation Optimization technique Reliability improvement, Distribution system.

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Authors: Arkadiusz Biernacki

Abstract:

In this paper we present a statistical analysis of Voice over IP (VoIP) packet streams produced by the G.711 voice coder with voice activity detection (VAD). During telephone conversation, depending whether the interlocutor speaks (ON) or remains silent (OFF), packets are produced or not by a voice coder. As index of dispersion for both ON and OFF times distribution was greater than one, we used hyperexponential distribution for approximation of streams duration. For each stage of the hyperexponential distribution, we tested goodness of our fits using graphical methods, we calculated estimation errors, and performed Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Obtained results showed that the precise VoIP source model can be based on the five-state Markov process.

Keywords: VoIP source modelling, distribution approximation, hyperexponential distribution.

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Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

In this paper, two-sided uniformly normal distribution techniques were used in the derivation of monotone likelihood ratio. The approach mainly employed the parameters of the distribution for a class of all size a. The derivation technique is fast, direct and less burdensome when compared to some existing methods.

Keywords: Neyman-Pearson Lemma, Normal distribution

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Authors: J. A. Michline Rupa, S. Ganesh

Abstract:

This paper proposes a backward/forward sweep method to analyze the power flow in radial distribution systems. The distribution system has radial structure and high R/X ratios. So the newton-raphson and fast decoupled methods are failed with distribution system. The proposed method presents a load flow study using backward/forward sweep method, which is one of the most effective methods for the load-flow analysis of the radial distribution system. By using this method, power losses for each bus branch and voltage magnitudes for each bus node are determined. This method has been tested on IEEE 33-bus radial distribution system and effective results are obtained using MATLAB.

Keywords: Backward/Forward sweep method, Distribution system, Load flow analysis.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the P^th percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: Reliability, Accelerated life testing, Cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, Progressive Type-I censoring, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: M. Mottaghi, F. Ghalichi, H. Badri Ghavifekr, H. Niroomand Oskui

Abstract:

This paper presents design and characterization of a microaccelerometer designated for integration into cataract surgical probe to detect hardness of different eye tissues during cataract surgery. Soft posterior lens capsule of eye can be easily damaged in comparison with hard opaque lens since the surgeon can not see directly behind cutting needle during the surgery. Presence of microsensor helps the surgeon to avoid rupturing posterior lens capsule which if occurs leads to severe complications such as glaucoma, infection, or even blindness. The microsensor having overall dimensions of 480 μm x 395 μm is able to deliver significant capacitance variations during encountered vibration situations which makes it capable to distinguish between different types of tissue. Integration of electronic components on chip ensures high level of reliability and noise immunity while minimizes space and power requirements. Physical characteristics and results on performance testing, proves integration of microsensor as an effective tool to aid the surgeon during this procedure.

Keywords: Cataract surgery, MEMS, Microsensor, Phacoemulsification.

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Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

A new model namely, the crystal model, has been modified to calculate radius and density distribution of light nuclei up to 8Be. The crystal model has been modified according to solid state physics which uses the analogy between nucleon distribution and atoms distribution in the crystal. The model has analytical analysis to calculate the radius where the density distribution of light nuclei has been obtained from the analogy of crystal lattice. The distribution of nucleons over crystal has been discussed in general form. The equation used to calculate binding energy was taken from the solid-state model of repulsive and attractive force. The numbers of the protons were taken to control repulsive force where the atomic number was responsible for the attractive force. The parameter has been calculated from the crystal model was found to be proportional to the radius of the nucleus. The density distribution of light nuclei was taken as a summation of two clusters distribution as in 6Li=alpha+deuteron configuration. A test has been done on the data obtained for radius and density distribution using double folding for d+6,7Li with M3Y nucleon-nucleon interaction. Good agreement has been obtained for both radius and density distribution of light nuclei. The model failed to calculate the radius of 9Be, so modifications should be done to overcome discrepancy.

Keywords: nuclear lattice, crystal model, light nuclei, nuclear density distributions

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Authors: Azhar Hussain, Kashif Shahzad, Chunming Tang

Abstract:

this paper gives a novel approach towards real-time speed estimation of multiple traffic vehicles using fuzzy logic and image processing techniques with proper arrangement of camera parameters. The described algorithm consists of several important steps. First, the background is estimated by computing median over time window of specific frames. Second, the foreground is extracted using fuzzy similarity approach (FSA) between estimated background pixels and the current frame pixels containing foreground and background. Third, the traffic lanes are divided into two parts for both direction vehicles for parallel processing. Finally, the speeds of vehicles are estimated by Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator. True ground speed is determined by utilizing infrared sensors for three different vehicles and the results are compared to the proposed algorithm with an accuracy of ± 0.74 kmph.

Keywords: Defuzzification, Fuzzy similarity approach, lane cropping, Maximum a Posterior Probability (MAP) estimator, Speed estimation

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, S. Auchariyamet

Abstract:

Optimal capacitor allocation in distribution systems has been studied for a long times. It is an optimization problem which has an objective to define the optimal sizes and locations of capacitors to be installed. In this works, an overview of capacitor placement problem in distribution systems is briefly introduced. The objective functions and constraints of the problem are listed and the methodologies for solving the problem are summarized.

Keywords: Capacitor Placement, Distribution Systems, Optimization Techniques

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Authors: Ohn Zin Lin, Okka, Cho Cho Myint

Abstract:

It is important to consider the effects of transformers on distribution system because they have the highest impact on system reliability. It is generally said that parallel operation of transformers (POT) can improve the system reliability. However, the estimation approach can be also considered for accuracy. In this paper, we propose a three-state components model and equations to determine the reliability improvement by POT, and cooperation of POT and distributed generation (DG). Based on the proposed model and techniques, the effect of POT is analyzed in four different tests with the consideration of conventional distribution system, distribution automation system (DAS) and DG. According to the results, the reliability is greatly improved by cooperation of POT, DAS and DG. The proposed model and methods are applicable to not only developing countries which have conventional distribution system but also developed countries in which DAS has already installed.

Keywords: Distribution system, reliability, dispersed generator, energy not supply, transformer parallel operation.

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Authors: N. Katemee, T. Mayureesawan

Abstract:

This paper developed the c-Chart based on a Zero- Inflated Poisson (ZIP) processes that approximated by a geometric distribution with parameter p. The p estimated that fit for ZIP distribution used in calculated the mean, median, and variance of geometric distribution for constructed the c-Chart by three difference methods. For cg-Chart, developed c-Chart by used the mean and variance of the geometric distribution constructed control limits. For cmg-Chart, the mean used for constructed the control limits. The cme- Chart, developed control limits of c-Chart from median and variance values of geometric distribution. The performance of charts considered from the Average Run Length and Average Coverage Probability. We found that for an in-control process, the cg-Chart is superior for low level of mean at all level of proportion zero. For an out-of-control process, the cmg-Chart and cme-Chart are the best for mean = 2, 3 and 4 at all level of parameter.

Keywords: average coverage probability, average run length, geometric distribution, zero-inflated poisson distribution

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