Search results for: nonlife insurance

Authors: Shankar Kambhampaty, Harish Rohan Kambhampaty

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Data in IT systems in enterprises have been growing at phenomenal pace. This has provided opportunities to run analytics to gather intelligence on key business parameters that enable them to provide better products and services to customers. While there are several Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) and Business Intelligence (BI) tools and technologies available in marketplace to run analytics, there is a need for an integrated view when developing intelligent solutions in enterprises. This paper progressively elaborates a reference model for enterprise solutions, builds an integrated view of data, information and intelligence components and presents a reference architecture for intelligent enterprise solutions. Finally, it applies the reference architecture to an insurance organization. The reference architecture is the outcome of experience and insights gathered from developing intelligent solutions for several organizations.

Keywords: Architecture, model, intelligence, artificial intelligence, business intelligence, AI, BI, ML, analytics, enterprise.

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Authors: Nurul Zahirah M.A., N. Zainul Abidin

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Green buildings have been commonly cited to be more expensive than conventional buildings. However, limited research has been conducted to clearly identify elements that contribute to this cost differential. The construction cost of buildings can be typically divided into “hard" costs and “soft" cost elements. Using a review analysis of existing literature, the study identified six main elements in green buildings that contribute to the general cost elements that are “soft" in nature. The six elements found are insurance, developer-s experience, design cost, certification, commissioning and energy modeling. Out of the six elements, most literatures have highlighted the increase in design cost for green design as compared to conventional design due to additional architectural and engineering costs, eco-charettes, extra design time, and the further need for a green consultant. The study concluded that these elements of soft cost contribute to the green premium or cost differential of green buildings.

Keywords: Green building, cost differential, soft cost, intangible cost.

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Authors: Neda Navidi, Rene Jr. Landry

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Vehicle tracking and accident recognizing are considered by many industries like insurance and vehicle rental companies. The main goal of this paper is to detect the location of a car accident by combining different methods. The methods, which are considered in this paper, are Global Navigation Satellite Systems/Inertial Measurement Units (GNSS/IMU)-based navigation and vehicle accident detection algorithms. They are expressed by a set of raw measurements, which are obtained from a designed integrator black box using GNSS and inertial sensors. Another concern of this paper is the definition of accident detection algorithm based on its jerk to identify the position of that accident. In fact, the results convinced us that, even in GNSS blockage areas, the position of the accident could be detected by GNSS/INS integration with 50% improvement compared to GNSS stand alone.

Keywords: Driving behavior, integration, IMU, GNSS, monitoring, tracking.

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Authors: Beata Wentura-Dudek

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In the United States in 2007-2010 before the crisis, the US labour market policy focused mainly on providing residents with unemployment insurance, after the recession this policy changed. The aim of the article was to present quantitative research presenting the most effective labor market instruments contributing to reducing unemployment during the crisis in the USA. The article presents research based on the analysis of available documents and statistical data. The results of the conducted research show that the most effective forms of counteracting unemployment at that time were: direct job creation, job search assistance, subsidized employment, training and employment promotion using new technologies, including social media.

Keywords: United States, financial crisis, unemployment, employment promotion, social media, job creation, training, labour market, employment agencies, lifelong learning, job search assistance, subsidized employment, companies, tax.

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Authors: Catherine Equey Balzli

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Old age retirement pensions are an important concern among the Swiss but estimating one’s income after retirement is difficult due to the Swiss insurance system’s complexity. This project’s aim is to prepare for developing a digital platform that will allow individuals to plan for retirement in a simplified manner. The main objective of the platform will be to give individuals the tools to check that their savings and retirement benefits will allow them to continue the lifestyle to which they are accustomed once they are retired. The research results from qualitative (focus group) and quantitative (survey) methodologies, recommend the scope and functionalities for a digital platform to be developed. A main outcome is the need to limit the platform’s scope to old-age pension only (excluding survivors’ or disability pensions, for instance). Furthermore, an outcome regarding the functionalities is the proposition of scenarios such as early retirement, changes to income, or modifications to personal status. The development of the digital platform will be a subsequent project.

Keywords: Benefit statement, digital platform, retirement financial planning, social insurances.

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Authors: Usha Sridhar, Sridhar Mandyam

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We propose a multi-agent based utilitarian approach to model and understand information flows in social networks that lead to Pareto optimal informational exchanges. We model the individual expected utility function of the agents to reflect the net value of information received. We show how this model, adapted from a theorem by Karl Borch dealing with an actuarial Risk Exchange concept in the Insurance industry, can be used for social network analysis. We develop a utilitarian framework that allows us to interpret Pareto optimal exchanges of value as potential information flows, while achieving a maximization of a sum of expected utilities of information of the group of agents. We examine some interesting conditions on the utility function under which the flows are optimal. We illustrate the promise of this new approach to attach economic value to information in networks with a synthetic example.

Keywords: Borch's Theorem , Economic value of information, Information Exchange, Pareto Optimal Solution, Social Networks, Utility Functions

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

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The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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Authors: R. Tandlich, S. Hoossein, K. A. Tagwira, M. M. Marais, T. A. Ludwig, R. P. Chidziva, M. N. Munodawafa, W. M. Wrench

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Response to the public health-related emergencies is analysed here for a rural university in South Africa. The structure of the designated emergency plan covers all the phases of the disaster management cycle. The plan contains elements of the vulnerability model and the technocratic model of emergency management. The response structures are vertically and horizontally integrated, while the planning contains elements of scenario-based and functional planning. The available number of medical professionals at the Rhodes University, along with the medical insurance rates, makes the staff and students potentially more medically vulnerable than the South African population. The main improvements of the emergency management are required in the tornado response and the information dissemination during health emergencies. The latter should involve the increased use of social media and e-mails, following the Taylor model of communication. Infrastructure must be improved in the telecommunication sector in the face of unpredictable electricity outages.

Keywords: Public health, Rural university, Taylor model of communication.

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: Early Warning System, Knowledge Management, Topic Modeling, Market Prediction.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Bayesian reasoning (BR) or Linear (Auto) Regression (AR/LR) can predict different sources of data using priors or other data, and can link social service demands in cohorts, while their consideration in isolation (self-prediction) may lead to service misuse ignoring the context. The paper advocates that BR with Binomial (BD), or Normal (ND) models or raw data (.D) as probabilistic updates can be compared to AR/LR to link services in Scotland and reduce cost by sharing healthcare (HC) resources. Clustering, cross-correlation, along with BR, LR, AR can better predict demand. Insurance companies and policymakers can link such services, and examples include those offered to the elderly, and low-income people, smoking-related services linked to mental health services, or epidemiological weight in children. 22 service packs are used that are published by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019, broken into 110 year series (factors), joined using LR, AR, BR. The Primary component analysis found 11 significant factors, while C-Means (CM) clustering gave five major clusters.

Keywords: Bayesian probability, cohorts, data frames, regression, services, prediction.

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, M. Kobalava, T. Lazariashvili, M. Saghareishvili

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The article discusses the consumer market of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. It is noted that development of the strategic areas of the agricultural sector needs a special support. These strategic areas should create the country's major export potential. It is important to develop strategies to access to the international markets, form extensive marketing network etc., which will become the basis for the promotion and revenue growth of the country. The Georgian agricultural sector, with the right state policy and support, can achieve success and gain access to the world market with competitive agricultural products. The paper discusses the current condition of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. The conducted research concludes the information that there is an increasing demand on the green goods in the world market. Natural and climatic conditions of Georgia give a serious possibility of implementing it. The research presents an agricultural development strategy in Georgia and the findings and based on them recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: Agriculture, agricultural cooperative society agricultural insurance, agricultural policy, export-import of agricultural products.

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Authors: F. Havas Beigi, M. Vafaee Yeganeh, E. Mohammadi

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Evaluation and survey of curriculum quality as one of the most important components of universities system is necessary for different levels in higher education. The main purpose of this study was to survey of the curriculum quality of Actuarial science field. Case: University of SHahid Beheshti and Higher education institute of Eco insurance (according to viewpoint of students, alumni, employers and faculty members). Descriptive statistics (mean, tables, percentage, and frequency distribution) and inferential statistics (CHI SQUARE) were used to analyze the data. Six criteria considered for the Quality of curriculum: objectives, content, teaching and learning methods, space and facilities, Time, assessment of learning. Content, teaching and learning methods, space and facilities, assessment of learning criteria were relatively desirable level, objectives and time criterions were desirable level. The quality of curriculum of Actuarial Science field was relatively desirable level.

Keywords: Quality, curriculum, Actuarial science, higher education

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Authors: Abbas Haddadzadeh, Marzieh Sharif Paghaleh

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Within the new world order, the term “crisis" is nowadays familiar to companies. Organizations are experiencing conditions which are surprising, uncertain, often adverse and usually unstable. The companies, who grasp the importance of transformation within the information age, have felt the need to develop modern methods to achieve the ability to thrive despite severe shocks. Through strategically managing human resource and developing appropriate elements of human resource system, companies can be assured for resolving the crisis. In this paper the role of HR system on resolving crisis has been evaluated. To help accomplish this, an insight on previous strategic HRM literature and an introduction to the elements and relationship within HR systems has been presented. It also reviews different attitude around resilience in literature. It continues by reviewing three elements central to developing an organization-s capacity for crisis resolving and it will demonstrate how designing proper elements of HR system can lead the organizations to possess the ability for passing through crisis. Finally it will evaluate an Iranian Insurance organization in case of one of the three central elements (specific cognitive ability) and observe how successful they were on developing an effective HR system to be ready for facing crisis.

Keywords: Crisis, HR System, Resilience, Strategic Human Resource Management.

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Authors: Bello Nurudeen Akinsola

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The study analyzed the risk and returns of commercial-property in Southwestern Nigeria and selected stocksmarket investment between 2000 and 2009; compared the inflation hedging characteristics and diversification potentials of investing in commercial-property and selected stock- market investment. Primary data were collected on characteristics, rental and capital values of commercial- properties from their property managers through the use of questionnaire. Secondary data on stock prices and dividends on banking, insurance and conglomerates sectors were sourced from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (2000-2009). The result showed that average return on all the selected stock- investments was higher than that of commercial-property. As regards risk, commercial-property indicated lower risk, compared to stocks. Also the stock-investment had better inflation hedging capacity than commercial-properties; combination of both had diversification potentials. The study concluded that stock-market investment offered attractive higher return than commercial-property although with higher risk and there could be diversification benefits in combining commercial-property with stock- investment.

Keywords: Commercial-Property, Return, Risk, Stock Market

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Authors: Chang, Chun-Lang, Liu, Chun-Kai

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This study, for its research subjects, uses patients who had undergone total knee replacement surgery from the database of the National Health Insurance Administration. Through the review of literatures and the interviews with physicians, important factors are selected after careful screening. Then using Cross Entropy Method, Genetic Algorithm Logistic Regression, and Particle Swarm Optimization, the weight of each factor is calculated and obtained. In the meantime, Excel VBA and Case Based Reasoning are combined and adopted to evaluate the system. Results show no significant difference found through Genetic Algorithm Logistic Regression and Particle Swarm Optimization with over 97% accuracy in both methods. Both ROC areas are above 0.87. This study can provide critical reference to medical personnel as clinical assessment to effectively enhance medical care quality and efficiency, prevent unnecessary waste, and provide practical advantages to resource allocation to medical institutes.

Keywords: Total knee replacement, Case Based Reasoning, Cross Entropy Method, Genetic Algorithm Logistic Regression, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: Shahadat Uddin, Md Ekramul Hossain, Arif Khan

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The collaboration among physicians during episodes of care for a hospitalised patient has a significant contribution towards effective health outcome. This research aims at improving this health outcome by analysing the attributes of patient-sharing physician collaboration network (PCN) on hospital data. To accomplish this goal, we present a research framework that explores the impact of several types of attributes (such as clique and clan) of PCN on hospitalisation cost and hospital length of stay. We use electronic health insurance claim dataset to construct and explore PCNs. Each PCN is categorised as ‘low’ and ‘high’ in terms of hospitalisation cost and length of stay. The results from the proposed model show that the clique and clan of PCNs affect the hospitalisation cost and length of stay. The clique and clan of PCNs show the difference between ‘low’ and ‘high’ PCNs in terms of hospitalisation cost and length of stay. The findings and insights from this research can potentially help the healthcare stakeholders to better formulate the policy in order to improve quality of care while reducing cost.

Keywords: Clique, clan, electronic health records, physician collaboration.

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Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai

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Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.

Keywords: Tourism industry, extreme weather, multi-hazard, vulnerability analysis, loss exceeding probability, risk management.

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: Agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes.

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Authors: K. N. C. Njoku, Chinwendu Best Eleje, Christian Chukwuemeka Nwandu

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One of the problems facing most insurance companies is how best the burden of paying claims to its policy holders can be managed whenever need arises. Hence there is need for the insurer to buy a reinsurance contract in order to reduce risk which will enable the insurer to share the financial burden with the reinsurer. In this paper, the insurer’s and reinsurer’s strategy is investigated under the modified constant elasticity of variance (M-CEV) process and proportional administrative charges. The insurer considered investment in one risky asset and one risk free asset where the risky asset is modeled based on the M-CEV process which is an extension of constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. Next, a nonlinear partial differential equation in the form of Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation is obtained by dynamic programming approach. Using power transformation technique and variable change, the explicit solutions of the optimal investment strategy and optimal reinsurance strategy are obtained. Finally, some numerical simulations of some sensitive parameters were obtained and discussed in details where we observed that the modification factor only affects the optimal investment strategy and not the reinsurance strategy for an insurer with exponential utility function.

Keywords: Reinsurance strategy, Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation, power transformation, M-CEV process, exponential utility.

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Authors: MP. Mulaudzi, MA. Petersen, J. Mukuddem-Petersen , IM. Schoeman, B. de Waal, JM. Manale

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This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).

Keywords: Investors; Jump Diffusion Process, Structured Mortgage Products, Treasuries, Credit Risk, Credit Default Swaps, Tranching Risk, Counterparty Risk, Value-at-Risk, Swaps-at-Risk, Subprime Mortgage Crisis.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Linking social needs to social classes using different criteria may lead to social services misuse. The paper discusses using ML and Neural Networks (NNs) in linking public services in Scotland in the long term and advocates, this can result in a reduction of the services cost connecting resources needed in groups for similar services. The paper combines typical regression models with clustering and cross-correlation as complementary constituents to predict the demand. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack linked services such as those offered to the elderly or to low-income people in the longer term. The work is based on public data from 22 services offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and from the Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019 that are broken into 110 years series called factors and uses Linear Regression (LR), Autoregression (ARMA) and 3 types of back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks (BPNN) to link them under specific conditions. Relationships found were between smoking related healthcare provision, mental health-related health services, and epidemiological weight in Primary 1(Education) Body Mass Index (BMI) in children. Primary component analysis (PCA) found 11 significant factors while C-Means (CM) clustering gave 5 major factors clusters.

Keywords: Probability, cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: Farhan Ismaeel Dakheel, Raoof Smko, K. Negrat, Abdelsalam Almarimi

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In this paper we used data mining techniques to identify outlier patients who are using large amount of drugs over a long period of time. Any healthcare or health insurance system should deal with the quantities of drugs utilized by chronic diseases patients. In Kingdom of Bahrain, about 20% of health budget is spent on medications. For the managers of healthcare systems, there is no enough information about the ways of drug utilization by chronic diseases patients, is there any misuse or is there outliers patients. In this work, which has been done in cooperation with information department in the Bahrain Defence Force hospital; we select the data for Cardiac patients in the period starting from 1/1/2008 to December 31/12/2008 to be the data for the model in this paper. We used three techniques for finding the drug utilization for cardiac patients. First we applied a clustering technique, followed by measuring of clustering validity, and finally we applied a decision tree as classification algorithm. The clustering results is divided into three clusters according to the drug utilization, for 1603 patients, who received 15,806 prescriptions during this period can be partitioned into three groups, where 23 patients (2.59%) who received 1316 prescriptions (8.32%) are classified to be outliers. The classification algorithm shows that the use of average drug utilization and the age, and the gender of the patient can be considered to be the main predictive factors in the induced model.

Keywords: Data Mining, Clustering, Classification, Drug Utilization..

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Authors: Yosia Mulumba, Klaus Schmidt

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Financial Inclusion is considered a key pillar for development in most countries around the world. Access to affordable financial services in a country’s economy can be a driver to overcome poverty and reduce income inequalities, and thus increase economic growth. Nevertheless, the number of financially excluded populations in developing countries continues to be very high. This paper explores the role of Financial Technology (Fintech) as a key driver for achieving financial inclusion in developing countries post the COVID-19 pandemic with an emphasis on four East African countries: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda. The research paper is inspired by the positive disruption caused by the pandemic, which has compelled societies in East Africa to adapt and embrace the use of financial technology innovations, specifically Mobile Money Services (MMS), to access financial services. MMS has been further migrated and integrated with other financial technology innovations such as Mobile Banking, Micro Savings, and Loans, and Insurance, to mention but a few. These innovations have been adopted across key sectors such as commerce, health care, or agriculture. The research paper will highlight the Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) that are behind MMS, along with numerous innovative products and services being offered to the customers. It will also highlight the regulatory framework under which these innovations are being governed to ensure the safety of the customers' funds.

Keywords: Financial inclusion, financial technology, regulatory framework, mobile money services.

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Authors: Gulnara Moldasheva

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The research explores the relationship between management responsibility and corporate governance of listed companies in Kazakhstan. This research employs firm level data of selected listed non-financial firms and firm level data “operational” financial sector, consisted from banking sector, insurance companies and accumulated pension funds using multivariate regression analysis under fixed effect model approach. Ownership structure includes institutional ownership, managerial ownership and private investor’s ownership. Management responsibility of the firm is expressed by the decision of the firm on amount of leverage. Results of the cross sectional panel study for non-financial firms showed that only institutional shareholding is significantly negatively correlated with debt to equity ratio. Findings from “operational” financial sector show that leverage is significantly affected only by the CEO/Chair duality and the size of financial institutions, and insignificantly affected by ownership structure. Also, the findings show, that there is a significant negative relationship between profitability and the debt to equity ratio for non-financial firms, which is consistent with pecking order theory. Generally, the found results suggest that corporate governance and a management responsibility play important role in corporate performance of listed firms in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: Corporate governance, corporate performance, debt to equity ratio, ownership.

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Authors: Rishabh Garg

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Blockchain technology can allow remote, untrusted parties in the banking and financial sector to reach consensus on the state of databases without the involvement of gatekeepers. Like a bookkeeper, it can manage all financial transactions including payments, settlements, fundraising, securities management, loans, credits and trade finance. It can outperform existing systems in terms of identity verification, asset transfers, peer-to-peer transfers, hedge funds, security and auditability. Blockchain-based decentralized finance (DeFi) is a new financial protocol. Being open and programmable, it enables various DeFi use-cases, including asset management, tokenization, tokenized derivatives, decentralized autonomous organizations, data analysis and valuation, payments, lending and borrowing, insurance, margin trading, prediction market, gambling and yield-farming, etc. In addition, it can ease financial transactions, cash-flow, use of programmable currency, no-loss lotteries, etc. This paper aims to assess the potential of decentralized finance by leveraging the blockchain-enabled Ethereum platform as an alternative to traditional finance. The study also aims to find out the impact of decentralized finance on prediction markets, quadratic funding and crowd-funding, together with the potential challenges and solutions associated with its implementation.

Keywords: Advance trading, crowd funding, exchange tokens, fund aggregation, margin trading, quadratic funding, smart contracts, streaming money, token derivatives.

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Authors: Sotirios N. Raptis

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The paper links social needs to social classes by the creation of cohorts of public services matched as causes to other ones as effects using cause-effect (CE) models. It then compares these associations using CE and typical regression methods (LR, ARMA). The paper discusses such public service groupings offered in Scotland in the long term to estimate the risk of multiple causes or effects that can ultimately reduce the healthcare cost by linking the next services to the likely causes of them. The same generic goal can be achieved using LR or ARMA and differences are discussed. The work uses Health and Social Care (H&Sc) public services data from 11 service packs offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland that boil down to 110 single-attribute year series, called ’factors’. The study took place at Macmillan Cancer Support, UK and Abertay University, Dundee, from 2020 to 2023. The paper discusses CE relationships as a main method and compares sample findings with Linear Regression (LR), ARMA, to see how the services are linked. Relationships found were between smoking-related healthcare provision, mental-health-related services, and epidemiological weight in Primary-1-Education Body-Mass-Index (BMI) in children as CE models. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack CE-linked services in plans such as those for the elderly, low-income people, in the long term. The linkage of services was confirmed allowing more accurate resource planning.

Keywords: Probability, regression, cause-effect cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: Cleopatra Gittens

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It has been recognized that some social security and national insurance systems in the Eastern Caribbean are experiencing ageing populations and economic and other crises that will present a financial challenge of being unable to pay pension benefits in fifteen to twenty years. This has implications for the fiscal and economic positions of the countries themselves. Hence, organizations would need to address the issue urgently. The study adds to the body of knowledge on social security systems and social security reforms in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It also makes recommendations for the types of reforms that social security systems in other SIDS can implement given their special circumstances. Secondary research is used to gather financial and other related information on three social security schemes in the Eastern Caribbean. Actuarial and financial reports and other documents of the social security systems are analysed to obtain financial and static data on each of the schemes. The findings show that the three schemes studied are experiencing steady increases in benefit expenditure versus contributions and increasing pensioner to insured ratios. The schemes will deplete their reserves between 2038 and 2050. Two of the schemes have increased their retirement age while the other has not embarked on any reforms. One scheme has made changes to its contribution percentages. Due to their small size, small populations and other unique circumstances, the social security schemes in the identified territories are not likely to be able to take advantage of all of the reform initiatives that the developed world embarked on when faced with similar problems. These schemes will need to make incremental changes that align with the timeframes recommended by the actuarial studies.

Keywords: Pension benefits, pension, Small Island Developing States, Social Security Reform.

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Authors: N. Damenia, E. Kharaishvili, N. Sagareishvili, M. Saghareishvili

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Women's Employment is one of the most important issues in the global economy. The article discusses the stated topic in Georgia, through historical content, Soviet experience, and modern perspectives. The paper discusses segmentation insa terms of employment and related problems. Based on statistical analysis, women's unemployment rate and its factors are analyzed. The level of employment of women in Transcaucasia (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) is discussed and is compared with Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). The study analyzes women’s level of development, according to the average age of marriage and migration level. The focus is on Georgia's Association Agreement with the EU in 2014, which includes economic, social, trade and political issues. One part of it is gender equality at workplaces. According to the research, the average monthly remuneration of women managers in the financial and insurance sector equaled to 1044.6 Georgian Lari, while in overall business sector average monthly remuneration equaled to 961.1 GEL. Average salaries are increasing; however, the employment rate remains problematic. For example, in 2017, 74.6% of men and 50.8% of women were employed from a total workforce. It is also interesting that the proportion of men and women at managerial positions is 29% (women) to 71% (men). Based on the results, the main recommendation for government and civil society is to consider women as a part of the country’s economic development. In this aspect, the experience of developed countries should be considered. It is important to create additional jobs in urban or rural areas and help migrant women return and use their working resources properly.

Keywords: Employment of women, segregation in terms of employment, women's employment level in Transcaucasia, migration level.

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Authors: Mihaela Munteanu (Pila), Silvius Stanciu

Abstract:

This paper presents the aspects of the official control of fishery in the Republic of Moldova. Currently, the regulations and the activity of national institutions with responsibilities in the field of food quality are in a process of harmonization with the European rules, aiming at European integration, quality improvement and providing a higher level of food safety. The National Agency for Food Safety is the main national body with responsibilities in the field of food safety. In the field of fishery products, the Agency carries out an intensive activity of informing the citizen and controlling the products marketed. The paper presents the dangers related to the consumption of fish and fishery products traded on the national market, the sanitary-veterinary inspections conducted by the profile institution and the improper situations identified. The national market of fishery products depends largely on imports, mainly focused on ocean fish. The research carried out has shown that during the period 2011-2018, following the inspections carried out on fishery products traded on the national market, a number of inconsistencies have been identified. Thus, indigenous products were frequently detected with sensory characteristics unfit for consumption, and being commercialized in inappropriate locations or contaminated with chemical pollutants. On import products controlled, the most frequent inconsistent situations have been represented by inconsistent sensory aspects and by parasite contamination. Taking into account the specific aspects of aquatic products, including the high level of alterability, special conditions of growth, marketing, culinary preparation and consumption are necessary in order to decrease the risk of disease over the population. Certificates, attestations and other documents certifying the quality of batches, completed by additional laboratory examinations, are necessary in order to increase the level of confidence on the quality of products marketed in the Republic. The implementation of various control procedures and mechanisms at national level, correlated with the focused activity of the specialized institutions, can decrease the risk of contamination and avoid cases of disease on the population due to the consumption of fishery products.

Keywords: Fishery products, food safety, insurance, inspection, Republic of Moldova.

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Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

Abstract:

Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding, while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: Flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors.

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