Search results for: damage risk

Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

Abstract:

Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: Supply chain disruptions, supply chain management, supply chain resilience, just-in-time production, lean manufacturing.

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation Risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upperextremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: Case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Cheng-Wu Chen, Ken Yeh, Han-Hsi Liang

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Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure tool of environmental management for identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of development proposals. EIA reports usually analyze how the amounts or concentrations of pollutants obey the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can deepen the analysis of environmental impacts in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA to introduce the causal relationships among environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the LCIA concept into ERA as an integrated tool for EIA can extend the focus of the regulatory compliance of environmental impacts to determine of the significance of environmental impacts. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations due to insufficient information; therefore, ERA should be generalized to fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through the study case of the expansion plan of the world-s largest plastics processing factory.

Keywords: Fuzzy risk analysis, life cycle impact assessment, fuzzy logic, environmental impact assessment

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Pert Teplý

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Operational risk has become one of the most discussed topics in the financial industry in the recent years. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to higher investments in information systems and technology, the increasing wave of mergers and acquisitions and emergence of new financial instruments. In addition, the New Basel Capital Accord (known as Basel II) demands a capital requirement for operational risk and further motivates financial institutions to more precisely measure and manage this type of risk. The aim of this paper is to shed light on main characteristics of operational risk management and common applied methods: scenario analysis, key risk indicators, risk control self assessment and loss distribution approach.

Keywords: Operational risk, economic capital, key risk indicators, loss distribution approach.

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Authors: C. P. Providakis, G. M. Angeli, M. J. Favvata, N. A. Papadopoulos, C. E. Chalioris, C. G. Karayannis

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An effort for the detection of damages in the  reinforcement bars of reinforced concrete members using PZTs is  presented. The damage can be the result of excessive elongation of  the steel bar due to steel yielding or due to local steel corrosion. In  both cases the damage is simulated by considering reduced diameter  of the rebar along the damaged part of its length. An integration  approach based on both electromechanical admittance methodology  and guided wave propagation technique is used to evaluate the  artificial damage on the examined longitudinal steel bar. Two  actuator PZTs and a sensor PZT are considered to be bonded on the  examined steel bar. The admittance of the Sensor PZT is calculated  using COMSOL 3.4a. Fast Furrier Transformation for a better  evaluation of the results is employed. An effort for the quantification  of the damage detection using the root mean square deviation  (RMSD) between the healthy condition and damage state of the  sensor PZT is attempted. The numerical value of the RSMD yields a  level for the difference between the healthy and the damaged  admittance computation indicating this way the presence of damage  in the structure. Experimental measurements are also presented.

 

Keywords: Concrete reinforcement, damage detection, electromechanical admittance, experimental measurements, finite element method, guided waves, PZT.

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Authors: A. Doosti, P. Ghasemi Dehkordi, M. Zamani, S. Taheri, M. Banitalebi, M. Mahmoudzadeh

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The p53 tumor suppressor gene plays two important roles in genomic stability: blocking cell proliferation after DNA damage until it has been repaired, and starting apoptosis if the damage is too critical. Codon 72 exon4 polymorphism (Arg72Pro) of the P53 gene has been implicated in cancer risk. Various studies have been done to investigate the status of p53 at codon 72 for arginine (Arg) and proline (Pro) alleles in different populations and also the association of this codon 72 polymorphism with various tumors. Our objective was to investigate the possible association between P53 Arg72Pro polymorphism and susceptibility to colorectal cancer among Isfahan and Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari (a part of south west of Iran) population. We investigated the status of p53 at codon 72 for Arg/Arg, Arg/Pro and Pro/Pro allele polymorphisms in blood samples from 145 colorectal cancer patients and 140 controls by Nested-PCR of p53 exon 4 and digestion with BstUI restriction enzyme and the DNA fragments were then resolved by electrophoresis in 2% agarose gel. The Pro allele was 279 bp, while the Arg allele was restricted into two fragments of 160 and 119 bp. Among the 145 colorectal cancer cases 49 cases (33.79%) were homozygous for the Arg72 allele (Arg/Arg), 18 cases (12.41%) were homozygous for the Pro72 allele (Pro/Pro) and 78 cases (53.8%) found in heterozygous (Arg/Pro). In conclusion, it can be said that p53Arg/Arg genotype may be correlated with possible increased risk of this kind of cancers in south west of Iran.

Keywords: TP53, Polymorphism, Colorectal Cancer, Iran

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Authors: Ahmed Noor Al-Qayyim, Barlas Ozden Caglayan

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Structural failure is caused mainly by damage that often occurs on structures. Many researchers focus on to obtain very efficient tools to detect the damage in structures in the early state. In the past decades, a subject that has received considerable attention in literature is the damage detection as determined by variations in the dynamic characteristics or response of structures. The study presents a new damage identification technique. The technique detects the damage location for the incomplete structure system using output data only. The method indicates the damage based on the free vibration test data by using ‘Two Points Condensation (TPC) technique’. This method creates a set of matrices by reducing the structural system to two degrees of freedom systems. The current stiffness matrices obtain from optimization the equation of motion using the measured test data. The current stiffness matrices compare with original (undamaged) stiffness matrices. The large percentage changes in matrices’ coefficients lead to the location of the damage. TPC technique is applied to the experimental data of a simply supported steel beam model structure after inducing thickness change in one element, where two cases consider. The method detects the damage and determines its location accurately in both cases. In addition, the results illustrate these changes in stiffness matrix can be a useful tool for continuous monitoring of structural safety using ambient vibration data. Furthermore, its efficiency proves that this technique can be used also for big structures.

Keywords: Damage detection, two points–condensation, structural health monitoring, signals processing, optimization.

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Authors: Juan P. Zamora, Wilson Adarme, Laura Palacios

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This paper shows a traceability framework for supply risk monitoring, beginning with the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the supply chain risk and focusing on the supply operations of the Health Care Institutions with oncology services in Bogota, Colombia. It includes a brief presentation of the state of the art of the Supply Chain Risk Management and traceability systems in logistics operations, and it concludes with the methodology to integrate the SCRM model with the traceability system.

Keywords: Supply risk, risk monitoring, supply chain risk management, cancer drugs, traceability systems.

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Authors: Shima Nabinejad, Holger Schüttrumpf

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Farmers who are living in flood-prone areas such as coasts are exposed to storm surges increased due to climate change. Crop cultivation is the most important economic activity of farmers, and in the time of flooding, agricultural lands are subject to inundation. Additionally, overflow saline water causes more severe damage outcomes than riverine flooding. Agricultural crops are more vulnerable to salinity than other land uses for which the economic damages may continue for a number of years even after flooding and affect farmers’ decision-making for the following year. Therefore, it is essential to assess what extent the agricultural areas are flooded and how much the associated flood damage to each individual farmer is. To address these questions, we integrated farmers’ decision-making at farm-scale with flood risk management. The integrated model includes identification of hazard scenarios, failure analysis of structural measures, derivation of hydraulic parameters for the inundated areas and analysis of the economic damages experienced by each farmer. The present study has two aims; firstly, it attempts to investigate the flooded cropland and potential crop damages for the whole area. Secondly, it compares them among farmers’ field for three flood scenarios, which differ in breach locations of the flood protection structure. To achieve its goal, the spatial distribution of fields and cultivated crops of farmers were fed into the flood risk model, and a 100-year storm surge hydrograph was selected as the flood event. The study area was Pellworm Island that is located in the German Wadden Sea National Park and surrounded by North Sea. Due to high salt content in seawater of North Sea, crops cultivated in the agricultural areas of Pellworm Island are 100% destroyed by storm surges which were taken into account in developing of depth-damage curve for analysis of consequences. As a result, inundated croplands and economic damages to crops were estimated in the whole Island which was further compared for six selected farmers under three flood scenarios. The results demonstrate the significance and the flexibility of the proposed model in flood risk assessment of flood-prone areas by integrating flood risk management and decision-making.

Keywords: Crop damages, flood risk analysis, individual farmer, inundated cropland, Pellworm Island, storm surges.

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Authors: M. Shirinbayan, J. Fitoussi, N. Abbasnezhad, A. Lucas, A. Tcharkhtchi

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Sheet Molding Compounds (SMCs) with special microstructures are very attractive to use in automobile structures especially when they are accidentally subjected to collision type accidents because of their high energy absorption capacity. These are materials designated as standard SMC, Advanced Sheet Molding Compounds (A-SMC), Low-Density SMC (LD-SMC) and etc. In this study, testing methods have been performed to compare the mechanical responses and damage phenomena of SMC, LD-SMC, and A-SMC under quasi-static and high strain rate tensile tests. The paper also aims at investigating the effect of an initial pre-damage induced by fatigue on the tensile dynamic behavior of A-SMC. In the case of SMCs and A-SMCs, whatever the fibers orientation and applied strain rate are, the first observed phenomenon of damage corresponds to decohesion of the fiber-matrix interface which is followed by coalescence and multiplication of these micro-cracks and their propagations. For LD-SMCs, damage mechanisms depend on the presence of Hollow Glass Microspheres (HGM) and fibers orientation.

Keywords: SMC, LD-SMC, A-SMC, HGM, damage.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

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A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these variations. Further evolution of dynamic financial analysis models is discussed and mapped to the evolution of software risk assessment models.

Keywords: Software Risk Assessment, Software ProjectManagement, Software Cost, Dynamic Modeling.

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Authors: Janisse Vivas, Doug Stead, Davide Elmo, Charles Hunt

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This paper presents the results of a study on the influence of varying percentages of rock bridges along a basal surface defining a biplanar failure mode. A pseudo-coupled-hydromechanical brittle fracture analysis is adopted using the state-of-the-art code Slope Model. Model results show that rock bridge failure is strongly influenced by the incorporation of groundwater pressures. The models show that groundwater pressure can promote total failure of a 5% rock bridge along the basal surface. Once the percentage of the rock bridges increases to 10 and 15%, although, the rock bridges are broken, full interconnection of the surface defining the basal surface of the biplanar mode does not occur. Increased damage is caused when the rock bridge is located at the daylighting end of the basal surface in proximity to the blast damage zone. As expected, some cracking damage is experienced in the blast damage zone, where properties representing a good quality controlled damage blast technique were assumed. Model results indicate the potential increase of permeability towards the blast damage zone.

Keywords: Slope model, lattice spring, blasting damage zone.

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Authors: Mohan Kotamrazu

Abstract:

Cyclone Hudhud which battered the city of Visakhapatnam on 12^th October, 2014, damaged many buildings, public amenities and infrastructure facilities along the Visakha- Bheemili coastal corridor. More than half the green cover of the city was wiped out. Majority of the trees along the coastal corridor suffered from complete or partial damage. In order to understand the different ways that trees incurred damage during the cyclone, a damage assessment study was carried out by the author. The areas covered by this study included two university campuses, several parks and residential colonies which bore the brunt of the cyclone. Post disaster attempts have been made to restore many of the trees that have suffered from partial or complete damage from the effects of extreme winds. This paper examines the various ways that trees incurred damage from the cyclone Hudhud and presents some examples of the restoration efforts carried out by educational institutions, public parks and religious institutions of the city of Visakhapatnam in the aftermath of the devastating cyclone.

Keywords: Defoliation, restoration, salt spray damage, wind throw.

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

Abstract:

The seismic risk mitigation from the perspective of the old buildings stock is truly essential in Algerian urban areas, particularly those located in seismic prone regions, such as Annaba city, and which the old buildings present high levels of degradation associated with no seismic strengthening and/or rehabilitation concerns. In this sense, the present paper approaches the issue of the seismic vulnerability assessment of old masonry building stocks through the adaptation of a simplified methodology developed for a European context area similar to that of Annaba city, Algeria. Therefore, this method is used for the first level of seismic vulnerability assessment of the masonry buildings stock of the old city center of Annaba. This methodology is based on a vulnerability index that is suitable for the evaluation of damage and for the creation of large-scale loss scenarios. Over 380 buildings were evaluated in accordance with the referred methodology and the results obtained were then integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Such results can be used by the Annaba city council for supporting management decisions, based on a global view of the site under analysis, which led to more accurate and faster decisions for the risk mitigation strategies and rehabilitation plans.

Keywords: Damage scenarios, masonry buildings, old city center, seismic vulnerability, vulnerability index.

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Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos

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A Finite Element (FE) based scheme is presented for quantifying guided wave interaction with Localised Nonlinear Structural Damage (LNSD) within structures of arbitrary layering and geometric complexity. The through-thickness mode-shape of the structure is obtained through a wave and finite element method. This is applied in a time domain FE simulation in order to generate time harmonic excitation for a specific wave mode. Interaction of the wave with LNSD within the system is computed through an element activation and deactivation iteration. The scheme is validated against experimental measurements and a WFE-FE methodology for calculating wave interaction with damage. Case studies for guided wave interaction with crack and delamination are presented to verify the robustness of the proposed method in classifying and identifying damage.

Keywords: Layered Structures, nonlinear ultrasound, wave interaction with nonlinear damage, wave finite element, finite element.

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement, Kriging, probability-based damage detection, probability of damage existence, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification.

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Authors: Bu Seog Ju, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

The cost of damage to the non-structural systems in critical facilities like nuclear power plants and hospitals can exceed 80% of the total cost of damage during an earthquake. The failure of nonstructural components, especially, piping systems led to leakage of water and subsequent shut-down of hospitals immediately after the event. Consequently, the evaluation of performance of these types of structural configurations has become necessary to mitigate the risk and to achieve reliable designs. This paper focuses on a methodology to evaluate the static and dynamic characteristics of complex actual piping system based on NFPA-13 and SMACNA guidelines. The result of this study revealed that current piping system subjected to design lateral force and design spectrum based on UBC-97 was failed in both cases and mode shapes between piping system and building structure were very different

Keywords: Nonstructural component, piping, hospital, seismic, bracing.

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Authors: M. Malekyarand, M. Shariati Ghalehno, A. Mokhber Dezfuli, H. Saebi Monfared, S. R. Ghoraishi K.

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Shape and form of the watermelon fruits are important factors to save spaces and reducing damage during storing of the fruits. In order to save spaces and prevent fruit damage in watermelon the following experiment was carried out in the farm. The fruits were boxed when they were approximately one cm less than the box diameter. The cubic, hexagonal forms were compared in this research. To do this, different boxes were designed with different holes on the sides to holes the watermelons fruits for shaping. The shapes of the boxes were hexagonal and cubic. The boxes holes sizes were the same with 10mm diameter each. Each side of the boxes had different holes including: without holes to 75 holes. The result showed that the best shape for watermelon storing to save space and prevent fruit damage was hexagonal form. The percentages of the fruit damage were 33 to 80 respectively.

Keywords: Cubic form, fruit damage, hexagonal, watermelon shape.

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Authors: José Julio de C. Pituba

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This work deals with the initial applications and formulation of an anisotropic plastic-damage constitutive model proposed for non-linear analysis of reinforced concrete structures submitted to a loading with change of the sign. The original constitutive model is based on the fundamental hypothesis of energy equivalence between real and continuous medium following the concepts of the Continuum Damage Mechanics. The concrete is assumed as an initial elastic isotropic medium presenting anisotropy, permanent strains and bimodularity (distinct elastic responses whether traction or compression stress states prevail) induced by damage evolution. In order to take into account the bimodularity, two damage tensors governing the rigidity in tension or compression regimes are introduced. Then, some conditions are introduced in the original version of the model in order to simulate the damage unilateral effect. The three-dimensional version of the proposed model is analyzed in order to validate its formulation when compared to micromechanical theory. The one-dimensional version of the model is applied in the analyses of a reinforced concrete beam submitted to a loading with change of the sign. Despite the parametric identification problems, the initial applications show the good performance of the model.

Keywords: Damage model, plastic strain, unilateral effect.

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Authors: Saadia Drissi, Siham Benhadou, Hicham Medromi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: Cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer.

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Authors: Susanta Banerjee, Sanjaya Kumar Patro

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Buildings with floating column are highly undesirable built in seismically active areas. Many urban multi-storey buildings today have floating column buildings which are adopted to accommodate parking at ground floor or reception lobbies in the first storey. The earthquake forces developed at different floor levels in a building need to be brought down along the height to the ground by the shortest path; any deviation or discontinuity in this load transfer path results in poor performance of the building. Floating column buildings are severely damaged during earthquake. Damage on this structure can be reduce by taking the effect of infill wall. This paper presents the effect of stiffness of infill wall to the damage occurred in floating column building when ground shakes. Modelling and analysis are carried out by non linear analysis programme IDARC-2D. Damage occurred in beams, columns, storey are studied by formulating modified Park & Ang model to evaluate damage indices. Overall structural damage indices in buildings due to shaking of ground are also obtained. Dynamic response parameters i.e. lateral floor displacement, storey drift, time period, base shear of buildings are obtained and results are compared with the ordinary moment resisting frame buildings. Formation of cracks, yield, plastic hinge, are also observed during analysis.

Keywords: Floating column, Infill Wall, Park-Ang Damage Index, Damage State.

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Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari

Abstract:

While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s timely payback in Karafarin bank.

Keywords: Financial Ratios; Spearman Test; Bank OperationsRisk

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

Abstract:

The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: Assessment, environment, agile, model, risk.

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Authors: Fatih Kagnici

Abstract:

Improvement in CAE methods has an important role for shortening of the vehicle product development time. It is provided that validation of the design and improvements in terms of durability can be done without hardware prototype production. In recent years, several different methods have been developed in order to investigate fatigue damage of the vehicle. The intended goal among these methods is prediction of fatigue damage in a short time with reduced costs. This study developed a new fatigue damage prediction method in the automotive sector using power spectrum densities of accelerations. This study also confirmed that the weak region in vehicle can be easily detected with the method developed in this study which results were compared with conventional method.

Keywords: Fatigue damage, Power spectrum density, Vibration induced fatigue, Vehicle development

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Authors: R. Weinzierl, R. Estes, N. Tinsley, M. Keshlaf

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The corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea Boddie, is a serious pest of corn. Larval feeding in ear tips destroys kernels and allows growth of fungi and production of mycotoxins. Infested sweet corn is not marketable. Development of improved transgenic hybrids expressing insecticidal toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) may limit or prevent crop losses. The effectiveness of Attribute^® II Bt resistance and applications of Voliam Xpress insecticide were evaluated for effectiveness in controlling corn earworm in plots near Urbana, IL, USA, in 2013. Where no insecticides were applied, ear infestations and kernel damage in Attribute^® II ‘Protector’ plots were consistently lower (near zero) than in plots of the non-Bt isoline ‘Garrison.’ Multiple applications of Voliam Xpress significantly reduced the number of corn earworm larvae and kernel damage in the Garrison plots, but infestations and damage in these plots were greater than in Protectorplots that did not receive insecticide applications. Our results indicate that Attribute^® II Bt resistance is more effective than multiple applications of an insecticide for preventing losses caused by corn earworm in sweet corn.

Keywords: Bacillus thuringiensis, Helicoverpa zea, insect pest management, transgenic sweet corn.

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

Abstract:

To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: Manufacturing industries, production output, risk, risk management, SMEs.

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Authors: Tru C. Le, France Cheong

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Although the Vietnamese catfish farming has grown at very high rates in recent years, the industry has also faced many problems affecting its sustainability. This paper studies the perceptions of catfish farmers regarding risk and risk management strategies in their production activities. Specifically, the study aims to measure the consequences, likelihoods, and levels of risks as well as the efficacy of risk management in Vietnamese catfish farming. Data for the study were collected through a sample of 261 catfish farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using a questionnaire survey in 2008. Results show that, in general, price and production risks were perceived as the most important risks. Farm management and technical measures were perceived more effective than other kinds of risk management strategies in risk reduction. Although price risks were rated as important risks, price risk management strategies were not perceived as important measures for risk mitigation. The results of the study are discussed to provide implications for various industry stakeholders, including policy makers, processors, advisors, and developers of new risk management strategies.

Keywords: Aquaculture, catfish farming, sources of risk, riskmanagement, risk strategies, risk mitigation.

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Authors: Michael Todinov, Eberechi Weli

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The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expressed as integer number), the worst-case running time of the proposed algorithm is O (n x (B+1)), which makes the proposed method a very efficient tool for solving the optimal risk reduction problem in the railway industry. 

Keywords: Optimisation, railway risk reduction, budget constraints, dynamic programming.

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Authors: Zeinep A. Berkimbayeva, Almagul T. Mansharipova, Elmira M. Khussainova, Leyla B. Djansugurova

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It is believed that DNA damaging toxic metabolites contributes to the development of different pathological conditions. To prevent harmful influence of toxic agents, cells developed number of protecting mechanisms, such as enzymatic reaction of detoxification of reactive metabolites and repair of DNA damage. The aim of the study was to examine the association between polymorphism of GSTT1/GSTM1 and XRCC1/3 genes and coronary artery disease (CAD) incidence. To examine a polymorphism of these genes in CAD susceptibility in patients and controls, PCR based genotyping assay was performed. For GST genes, frequency of GSTM1 null genotype among CAD affected group was significantly increased than in control group (P<0.001). Frequencies of the GSTT1 null and positive alleles are almost equal in both groups (P>0.1). We found that neither XRCC1 Arg399Gln nor XRCC3 Thr241Met were associated with CAD risk. Obtained data suggests that GSTM1 null genotype carriers are more susceptible to CAD development.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, DNA reparation, gene polymorphism, risk factors, xenobiotic detoxification.

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Authors: Omar Hamdy, Schichen Zhao, Hussein Abd El-Atty, Ayman Ragab, Muhammad Salem

Abstract:

One of the most risky areas in Aswan is Abouelreesh, which is suffering from flood disasters, as heavy deluge inundates urban areas causing considerable damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, the main problem was the urban sprawl towards this risky area. This paper aims to identify the urban areas located in the risk areas prone to flash floods. Analyzing this phenomenon needs a lot of data to ensure satisfactory results; however, in this case the official data and field data were limited, and therefore, free sources of satellite data were used. This paper used ArcGIS tools to obtain the storm water drains network by analyzing DEM files. Additionally, historical imagery in Google Earth was studied to determine the age of each building. The last step was to overlay the urban area layer and the storm water drains layer to identify the vulnerable areas. The results of this study would be helpful to urban planners and government officials to make the disasters risk estimation and develop primary plans to recover the risky area, especially urban areas located in torrents.

Keywords: Risk area, DEM, storm water drains, GIS.

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