Search results for: local andglobal prediction

Authors: Hong Son Hoang, Remy Baraille

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of how one can improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non- Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding, especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes. Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.

Keywords: Statistical simulation, canonical form, dynamical system, Markov and non-Markovian processes, data assimilation.

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Authors: J. K. Adedeji, S. T. Ijatuyi

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The application of neural network using pattern recognition to study the fluid dynamics and predict the groundwater reservoirs properties has been used in this research. The essential of geophysical survey using the manual methods has failed in basement environment, hence the need for an intelligent computing such as predicted from neural network is inevitable. A non-linear neural network with an XOR (exclusive OR) output of 8-bits configuration has been used in this research to predict the nature of groundwater reservoirs and fluid dynamics of a typical basement crystalline rock. The control variables are the apparent resistivity of weathered layer (p₁), fractured layer (p₂), and the depth (h), while the dependent variable is the flow parameter (F=λ). The algorithm that was used in training the neural network is the back-propagation coded in C++ language with 300 epoch runs. The neural network was very intelligent to map out the flow channels and detect how they behave to form viable storage within the strata. The neural network model showed that an important variable g_r (gravitational resistance) can be deduced from the elevation and apparent resistivity p_a. The model results from SPSS showed that the coefficients, a, b and c are statistically significant with reduced standard error at 5%.

Keywords: Neural network, gravitational resistance, pattern recognition, non-linear.

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Authors: Kapse Swapnil, K. Shankar

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Aiming at optimizing the weight and deflection of cantilever beam subjected to maximum stress and maximum deflection, Multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) with Utopia Point based local search is implemented. Utopia point is used to govern the search towards the Pareto Optimal set. The elite candidates obtained during the iterations are stored in an archive according to non-dominated sorting and also the archive is truncated based on least crowding distance. Local search is also performed on elite candidates and the most diverse particle is selected as the global best. This method is implemented on standard test functions and it is observed that the improved algorithm gives better convergence and diversity as compared to NSGA-II in fewer iterations. Implementation on practical structural problem shows that in 5 to 6 iterations, the improved algorithm converges with better diversity as evident by the improvement of cantilever beam on an average of 0.78% and 9.28% in the weight and deflection respectively compared to NSGA-II.

Keywords: Utopia point, multi-objective particle swarm optimization, local search, cantilever beam.

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Authors: B. O. Diyaolu, E. A. Okebanjo

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Children in today’s world need attention and care even with their physique as obesity is also at the increased. Several factors can be responsible for obesity in children and adequate attention is paramount in other not to accommodate it into adolescent period. This study investigated perceived determinants of obesity among primary school pupils in Eti Osa Local Government area of Lagos State. Descriptive survey research design was used and population was all obese pupils in Eti Osa Local Government Area of Lagos State. 92 pupils were selected from randomly picked 12 primary schools while purposive sampling technique was used to pick primary 4-6 pupils. With the aid of body mass index (BMI) and age percentile chart the obese pupils were selected. The instrument for the study was a self-developed and structured questionnaire on perceived determinant of obesity. The questionnaire was divided into three sections. The Cronbach’s Alpha reliability coefficient of 0.74 was obtained. The hypotheses were tested at 0.05 significant levels. The completed questionnaire was collated coded and analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts and percentage and inferential statistics of chi-square (X²). Findings of this study revealed that physical activities and parental influences were determinant of obesity. Physical activity is essential in reducing the rate of obesity in Eti Osa Local Government Area both at home and within the school environment. Primary schools need to create more playing ground for pupils to exercise themselves. Parents need to cater for their children diet ensuring not just the quantity but the quality as well.

Keywords: Feeding pattern, obese pupils, parental influence, physical activities.

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Authors: Salem Alsanusi

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A self-compacting concrete (SCC) is the one that can be placed in the form and can go through obstructions by its own weight and without the need of vibration. Since its first development in Japan in 1988, SCC has gained wider acceptance in Japan, Europe and USA due to its inherent distinct advantages. Although there are visible signs of its gradual acceptance in the North Africa through its limited use in construction, Libya has yet to explore the feasibility and applicability of SCC in new construction. The contributing factors to this reluctance appear to be lack of any supportive evidence of its suitability with local aggregates and the harsh environmental conditions. The primary aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of using SCC made with local aggregates of Eastern Province of Libya by examining its basic properties characteristics. This research consists of: (i) Development of a suitable mix for SCC such as the effect of water to cement ratio, limestone and silica fume that would satisfy the requirements of the plastic state; (ii) Casting of concrete samples and testing them for compressive strength and unit weight. Local aggregates, cement, admixtures and industrial waste materials were used in this research. The significance of this research lies in its attempt to provide some performance data of SCC made in the Eastern Province of Libya so as to draw attention to the possible use of SCC.

Keywords: Silica fume, self compacting concrete, workability, coarse and fine aggregate.

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Authors: M. Benbrahim, K. Benjelloun, A. Ibenbrahim, M. Kasmi, E. Ardil

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The automatic discrimination of seismic signals is an important practical goal for the earth-science observatories due to the large amount of information that they receive continuously. An essential discrimination task is to allocate the incoming signal to a group associated with the kind of physical phenomena producing it. In this paper, we present new techniques for seismic signals classification: local, regional and global discrimination. These techniques were tested on seismic signals from the data base of the National Geophysical Institute of the Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (Morocco) by using the Moroccan software for seismic signals analysis.

Keywords: Seismic signals, local discrimination, regionaldiscrimination, global discrimination, Moroccan software for seismicsignals analysis.

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Authors: Ayad A. Abdalla, Elhadi I. Elhadi, Hisham A. Elfergani

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Developing mixed convection in circular and annular sector ducts is investigated numerically for steady laminar flow of an incompressible Newtonian fluid with Pr = 0.7 and a wide range of Grashof number (0 £ Gr £ 10⁷). Investigation is limited to the case of heating in circular and annular sector ducts with apex angle of 2ϕ = π/4 for the thermal boundary condition of uniform wall temperature axially and peripherally. A numerical, finite control volume approach based on the SIMPLER algorithm is employed to solve the 3D governing equations. Numerical analysis is conducted using marching technique in the axial direction with axial conduction, axial mass diffusion, and viscous dissipation within the fluid are assumed negligible. The results include developing secondary flow patterns, developing temperature and axial velocity fields, local Nusselt number, local friction factor, and local apparent friction factor. Comparisons are made with the literature and satisfactory agreement is obtained. It is found that free convection enhances the local heat transfer in some cases by up to 2.5 times from predictions which account for forced convection only and the enhancement increases as Grashof number increases. Duct geometry and Grashof number strongly influence the heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics.

Keywords: Mixed convection, annular and circular sector ducts, heat transfer enhancement, pressure drop.

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Authors: D. Liu, D. M. Donskoy

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The vibroacoustic modulation method is based on the modulation effect of high-frequency ultrasonic wave (carrier) by low-frequency vibration in the presence of various defects, primarily contact-type such as cracks, delamination, etc. The presence and severity of the defect are measured by the ratio of the spectral sidebands and the carrier in the spectrum of the modulated signal. This approach, however, does not differentiate between amplitude and frequency modulations, AM and FM, respectfully. This paper is an attempt to explain the generation mechanisms of FM and its correlation with the flaw properties. Here we proposed two possible mechanisms leading to FM modulation based on nonlinear local defect resonance and dynamic acoustoelastic models.

Keywords: Non-destructive testing, nonlinear acoustics, structural health monitoring, acoustoelasticity, local defect resonance.

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Authors: Jaedo Kim, Youngjoon Han, Hernsoo Hahn

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The purpose of this paper is to detect human in images. This paper proposes a method for extracting human body feature descriptors consisting of projected edge component series. The feature descriptor can express appearances and shapes of human with local and global distribution of edges. Our method evaluated with a linear SVM classifier on Daimler-Chrysler pedestrian dataset, and test with various sub-region size. The result shows that the accuracy level of proposed method similar to Histogram of Oriented Gradients(HOG) feature descriptor and feature extraction process is simple and faster than existing methods.

Keywords: Human detection, Projected edge descriptor, Linear SVM, Local appearance feature

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Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: Accidents Prediction Models (APMs), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman.

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Authors: V. Agrawal, A. Sharma

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High Strength Concrete (HSC) is defined as concrete that meets special combination of performance and uniformity requirements that cannot be achieved routinely using conventional constituents and normal mixing, placing, and curing procedures. It is a highly complex material, which makes modeling its behavior a very difficult task. This paper aimed to show possible applicability of Neural Networks (NN) to predict the slump in High Strength Concrete (HSC). Neural Network models is constructed, trained and tested using the available test data of 349 different concrete mix designs of High Strength Concrete (HSC) gathered from a particular Ready Mix Concrete (RMC) batching plant. The most versatile Neural Network model is selected to predict the slump in concrete. The data used in the Neural Network models are arranged in a format of eight input parameters that cover the Cement, Fly Ash, Sand, Coarse Aggregate (10 mm), Coarse Aggregate (20 mm), Water, Super-Plasticizer and Water/Binder ratio. Furthermore, to test the accuracy for predicting slump in concrete, the final selected model is further used to test the data of 40 different concrete mix designs of High Strength Concrete (HSC) taken from the other batching plant. The results are compared on the basis of error function (or performance function).

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Concrete, prediction ofslump, slump in concrete

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Authors: W. Wanmolee, W. Sornlake, N. Laosiripojana, V. Champreda

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Conversion of lignocellulosic biomass is the basis process for production of fuels, chemicals and materials in the sustainable biorefinery industry. Saccharification of lignocellulosic biomass is an essential step which produces sugars for further conversion to target value-added products e.g. bio-ethanol, bio-plastic, g-valerolactone (GVL), 5-hydroxymethylfuroic acid (HMF), levulinic acid, etc. The goal of this work was to develop an efficient enzyme for conversion of biomass to reducing sugar based on crude fungal enzyme from Chaetomium globosum BCC5776 produced by submerged fermentation and evaluate its activity comparing to a commercial Acremonium cellulase. Five local biomasses in Thailand: rice straw, sugarcane bagasse, corncobs, corn stovers, and palm empty fruit bunches were pretreated and hydrolyzed with varying enzyme loadings. Saccharification of the biomass led to different reducing sugar levels from 115 mg/g to 720 mg/g from different types of biomass using cellulase dosage of 9 FPU/g. The reducing sugar will be further employed as sugar feedstock for production of ethanol or commodity chemicals. This work demonstrated the use of promising enzyme candidate for conversion of local lignocellulosic biomass in biorefinery industry.

Keywords: Biomass, Cellulase, Chaetomiun glubosum, Saccharification.

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Authors: Miho Tsukamoto

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Beppu hot spring provides medical treatment as well as comfort visitors and mental easiness for many years. This paper studies hot spring in Beppu and Tōji, medical treatment in hot spring, and investigates how people’s visit to Beppu has changed with Tōji, and how Beppu Tourism Office tries to regain visitors in Beppu. In this paper, firstly, hot spring history in Beppu will be explained especially focusing on Beppu Hattou (eight major hot springs) and Jigoku Meguri (eight major hell hot spring tours). Secondly, Tōji, a long-residential hot spring with the purpose of medical treatment along with the information about chemical efficacy of hot springs will be analyzed. Then, finally, the change of the long-stay type to short-stay Onsen programs with the combination of multiplex tourism resources will be focused along with the decrease of Onsen or hot spring visitors. It is concluded that Tōji is not only physically and mentally cure people but also bring people mental easiness and release them from their stressful life. All in all, it can be concluded that because Onsen is involved in people’s life in Beppu and keep local people united in the community. Tōji’s attraction is shown when local people try to create the new type of Onsen program so as to keep their traditional way of Tōji.

Keywords: Hot spring, Tōji, Treatment.

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Authors: Seyed Ali Jafari, Mohammad Ghomi Avili, Emad Benhelal

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In this study, a mathematical model was proposed and the accuracy of this model was assessed to predict the growth of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and rhamnolipid production under nitrogen limiting (sodium nitrate) fed-batch fermentation. All of the parameters used in this model were achieved individually without using any data from the literature. The overall growth kinetic of the strain was evaluated using a dual-parallel substrate Monod equation which was described by several batch experimental data. Fed-batch data under different glycerol (as the sole carbon source, C/N=10) concentrations and feed flow rates were used to describe the proposed fed-batch model and other parameters. In order to verify the accuracy of the proposed model several verification experiments were performed in a vast range of initial glycerol concentrations. While the results showed an acceptable prediction for rhamnolipid production (less than 10% error), in case of biomass prediction the errors were less than 23%. It was also found that the rhamnolipid production by P. aeruginosa was more sensitive at low glycerol concentrations. Based on the findings of this work, it was concluded that the proposed model could effectively be employed for rhamnolipid production by this strain under fed-batch fermentation on up to 80 g l- 1 glycerol.

Keywords: Fed-batch culture, glycerol, kinetic parameters, modelling, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, rhamnolipid.

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Authors: Achut Manandhar, Kenneth D. Morton, Peter A. Torrione, Leslie M. Collins

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The current trends in affect recognition research are to consider continuous observations from spontaneous natural interactions in people using multiple feature modalities, and to represent affect in terms of continuous dimensions, incorporate spatio-temporal correlation among affect dimensions, and provide fast affect predictions. These research efforts have been propelled by a growing effort to develop affect recognition system that can be implemented to enable seamless real-time human-computer interaction in a wide variety of applications. Motivated by these desired attributes of an affect recognition system, in this work a multi-dimensional affect prediction approach is proposed by integrating multivariate Relevance Vector Machine (MVRVM) with a recently developed Output-associative Relevance Vector Machine (OARVM) approach. The resulting approach can provide fast continuous affect predictions by jointly modeling the multiple affect dimensions and their correlations. Experiments on the RECOLA database show that the proposed approach performs competitively with the OARVM while providing faster predictions during testing.

Keywords: Dimensional affect prediction, Output-associative RVM, Multivariate regression.

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Authors: Yao-Hong Tsai

Abstract:

Salient points are frequently used to represent local properties of the image in content-based image retrieval. In this paper, we present a reduction algorithm that extracts the local most salient points such that they not only give a satisfying representation of an image, but also make the image retrieval process efficiently. This algorithm recursively reduces the continuous point set by their corresponding saliency values under a top-down approach. The resulting salient points are evaluated with an image retrieval system using Hausdoff distance. In this experiment, it shows that our method is robust and the extracted salient points provide better retrieval performance comparing with other point detectors.

Keywords: Barnard detector, Content-based image retrieval, Points reduction, Salient point.

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Authors: Sugiono, W. Ardiatna, H. Firdaus, N. Kusnandar, B. Utomo, J. A. Kadar

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It is desirable that most human food is warm when eaten, including when food is obtained by taking it away from the point of sale in disposable food packaging. However, such packaging does not retain heat for a long time, which is necessary to ensure the food remains warm when eaten. The study looked for single-use food packaging that could retain the heat of the food for a long time. The methodology for obtaining such packaging is either by modifying available packages on the market or by making new ones with materials that are easily obtained locally, then testing by loading the local food and measuring its temperature and the length of time until it reaches the lowest acceptable temperature for hot food (56°C). Packages made of plastic boxes lined with thin aluminum foil on the inside are the best way to keep food warm for up to 44 minutes from the time it is put in the package to the time the required temperature is reached. Moreover, packaging made of local common food paper, where the food was put in a transparent plastic bag inside the package, was found to be the simplest package that could retain heat for 82.31% as long as the best packaging could, in this study. Plastic boxes with thin aluminum foil inside were the best single-use food packaging in this study that served to keep hot food warm and fit for consumption.

Keywords: Aluminum foil, hot food, local food, packaging.

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated investment system, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex.

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Authors: Mohamed A. Azab

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Over the early years of the 21st century, cities throughout the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf region have expanded more rapidly than ever before. Given the presence of a large volume of high-rise buildings allover the region, the local authority aims to set a new standard for sustainable development; with an integrated approach to maintain a balance between economy, quality, environmental protection and safety of life. In the very near future, as mandatory requirements, sustainability will be the criteria that should be included in all building projects. It is well known in the building sustainability topics that structural design engineers do not have a key role in this matter. In addition, the LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) has looked almost exclusively on the environmental components and materials specifications. The objective of this paper is to focus and establish groundwork for sustainability techniques and applications related to the RC high-rise buildings design, from the structural point of view. A set of recommendations related to local conditions, structural modeling and analysis is given, and some helpful suggestions for structural design team work are addressed. This paper attempts to help structural engineers in identifying the building sustainability design, in order to meet local needs and achieve alternative solutions at an early stage of project design.

Keywords: Building, Design, High-rise, Middle East, Structural, Sustainability.

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Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram

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In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.

Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.

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Authors: Sung-Hae Jun, Kyung-Whan Oh

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Statistical learning theory was developed by Vapnik. It is a learning theory based on Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension. It also has been used in learning models as good analytical tools. In general, a learning theory has had several problems. Some of them are local optima and over-fitting problems. As well, statistical learning theory has same problems because the kernel type, kernel parameters, and regularization constant C are determined subjectively by the art of researchers. So, we propose an evolutionary statistical learning theory to settle the problems of original statistical learning theory. Combining evolutionary computing into statistical learning theory, our theory is constructed. We verify improved performances of an evolutionary statistical learning theory using data sets from KDD cup.

Keywords: Evolutionary computing, Local optima, Over-fitting, Statistical learning theory

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Authors: X. Wang, J. S. Kuang

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The Fixed-angle Softened Truss Model with Tension-stiffening (FASTMT) has a superior performance in predicting the shear behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) membrane elements, especially for the post-cracking behaviour. Nevertheless, massive computational work is inevitable due to the multiple transcendental equations involved in the stress-strain relationship. In this paper, an iterative root-finding technique is introduced to FASTMT for solving quickly the transcendental equations of the tension-stiffening effect of RC membrane elements. This fast FASTMT, which performs in MATLAB, uses the bisection method to calculate the tensile stress of the membranes. By adopting the simplification, the elapsed time of each loop is reduced significantly and the transcendental equations can be solved accurately. Owing to the high efficiency and good accuracy as compared with FASTMT, the fast FASTMT can be further applied in quick prediction of shear behaviour of complex large-scale RC structures.

Keywords: Bisection method, fixed-angle softened truss model with tension-stiffening, iterative root-finding technique, reinforced concrete membrane.

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Authors: F. Fabeil Noor, Roslinah Mahmud, Janice L. H. Nga, Rasid Mail

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In Malaysia, particularly in Sabah, the government has been promoting entrepreneurship among rural people to encourage them to earn their living by making good use of the diverse natural resources and local cultures of Sabah. Nevertheless, despite the government’s aim to encourage more local community in rural area to involve in entrepreneurship, the involvement of community in entrepreneurial activity is still low. It is crucial to identify the factors stimulate (or prevent) the involvement of rural community in Sabah in entrepreneurial activity. Therefore, this study tries to investigate the personal and contextual factors that may have impact on decision to start a business among the local community in Mantanani Island. In addition, this study also aims to identify the perceived benefits they receive from entrepreneurial activity. A structured face-to-face interview was conducted with 61 local communities in Mantanani Island. Data analysis revealed that passion, personal skills and self-confidence are the significant internal factors to entrepreneurial activity, whereas access to finance, labour and infrastructure are the significant external factors that are found to influence entrepreneurship. In terms of perceived rewards they received from taking up small business, it was found that respondents are predominantly agreed that entrepreneurship offers financial benefit than non-financial. In addition, this study also offers several suggestions for entrepreneurship development in Mantanani Island and it is hoped that this study may help the related agency to develop effective support policies in order to encourage more people in rural area to involve in entrepreneurship.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, motivation, perceived rewards, rural community.

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Authors: S. B. Liu, K. M. Ng, H. L. Ong

Abstract:

This paper presents a new heuristic algorithm for the classical symmetric traveling salesman problem (TSP). The idea of the algorithm is to cut a TSP tour into overlapped blocks and then each block is improved separately. It is conjectured that the chance of improving a good solution by moving a node to a position far away from its original one is small. By doing intensive search in each block, it is possible to further improve a TSP tour that cannot be improved by other local search methods. To test the performance of the proposed algorithm, computational experiments are carried out based on benchmark problem instances. The computational results show that algorithm proposed in this paper is efficient for solving the TSPs.

Keywords: Local search, overlapped neighborhood, travelingsalesman problem.

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Authors: P. V. Pramila, V. Mahesh

Abstract:

Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients resulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF25, PEF, FEF25-75, FEF50 and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects) with the aforementioned input features. It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, as well as yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV1, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Pulmonary Function Test, Random Forest.

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: Travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, neural network model, traffic resource allocation.

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Authors: Ben-Edigbe J, RahmanR

Abstract:

Since primary school trips usually start from home, attention by many scholars have been focused on the home end for data gathering. Thereafter category analysis has often been relied upon when predicting school travel demands. In this paper, school end was relied on for data gathering and multivariate regression for future travel demand prediction. 9859 pupils were surveyed by way of questionnaires at 21 primary schools. The town was divided into 5 zones. The study was carried out in Skudai Town, Malaysia. Based on the hypothesis that the number of primary school trip ends are expected to be the same because school trips are fixed, the choice of trip end would have inconsequential effect on the outcome. The study compared empirical data for home and school trip end productions and attractions. Variance from both data results was insignificant, although some claims from home based family survey were found to be grossly exaggerated. Data from the school trip ends was relied on for travel demand prediction because of its completeness. Accessibility, trip attraction and trip production were then related to school trip rates under daylight and dry weather conditions. The paper concluded that, accessibility is an important parameter when predicting demand for future school trip rates.

Keywords: Trip generation, regression analysis, multiple linearregressions

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Roma Jaswal, Sandeep Khimta, Shailendra Singh

Abstract:

As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done in time especially for the critical applications. As, Neural networks, which have been already applied in software engineering applications to build reliability growth models predict the gross change or reusability metrics. Neural networks are non-linear sophisticated modeling techniques that are able to model complex functions. Neural network techniques are used when exact nature of input and outputs is not known. A key feature is that they learn the relationship between input and output through training. In this present work, various Neural Network Based techniques are explored and comparative analysis is performed for the prediction of level of need of maintenance by predicting level severity of faults present in NASA-s public domain defect dataset. The comparison of different algorithms is made on the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and Accuracy Values. It is concluded that Generalized Regression Networks is the best algorithm for classification of the software components into different level of severity of impact of the faults. The algorithm can be used to develop model that can be used for identifying modules that are heavily affected by the faults.

Keywords: Neural Network, Software faults, Software Metric.

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Authors: Lin Yang, Zhian Mi, Jiacheng Xiao, Rong Li

Abstract:

Swimming with the tide of deep learning, the field of music information retrieval (MIR) experiences parallel development and a sheer variety of feature-learning models has been applied to music classification and tagging tasks. Among those learning techniques, the deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been widespreadly used with better performance than the traditional approach especially in music genre classification and prediction. However, regarding the music recommendation, there is a large semantic gap between the corresponding audio genres and the various aspects of a song that influence user preference. In our study, aiming to bridge the gap, we strive to construct an automatic music aesthetic annotation model with MIDI format for better comparison and measurement of the similarity between music pieces in the way of harmonic analysis. We use the matrix of qualification converted from MIDI files as input to train two different classifiers, support vector machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT). Experimental results in performance of a tag prediction task have shown that both learning algorithms are capable of extracting high-level properties in an end-to end manner from music information. The proposed model is helpful to learn the audience taste and then the resulting recommendations are likely to appeal to a niche consumer.

Keywords: Harmonic analysis, machine learning, music classification and tagging, MIDI.

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Authors: Ibrahim A. El rube, Mohamed T. El Sonni, Soha S. Saleh

Abstract:

the cursive nature of the Arabic writing makes it difficult to accurately segment characters or even deal with the whole word efficiently. Therefore, in this paper, a printed Arabic sub-word recognition system is proposed. The suggested algorithm utilizes geometrical moments as descriptors for the separated sub-words. Three types of moments are investigated and applied to the printed sub-word images after dividing each image into multiple parts using windowing. Since moments are global descriptors, the windowing mechanism allows the moments to be applied to local regions of the sub-word. The local-global mixture of the proposed scheme increases the discrimination power of the moments while keeping the simplicity and ease of use of moments.

Keywords: Arabic sub-word recognition, windowing, aspectratio, moments.

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