Search results for: cost function analysis

Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: Dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter.

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Authors: K. Varesi, A. Radan

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In this paper, a new Genetic Algorithm (GA) based methodology is proposed to optimize the Degree of Hybridization (DOH) in a passenger parallel hybrid car. At first step, target parameters for the vehicle are decided and then using ADvanced VehIcle SimulatOR (ADVISOR) software, the variation pattern of these target parameters, across the different DOHs, is extracted. At the next step, a suitable cost function is defined and is optimized using GA. In this paper, also a new technique has been proposed for deciding the number of battery modules for each DOH, which leads to a great improvement in the vehicle performance. The proposed methodology is so simple, fast and at the same time, so efficient.

Keywords: Degree of Hybridization (DOH), Electric Motor, Emissions, Fuel Economy, Genetic Algorithm (GA), Hybrid ElectricVehicle (HEV), Vehicle Performance

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Authors: Jin-Hong Kim

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Roles of the vegetation to mitigate the erosion of the stream bed or to facilitate the deposition of the fine sediments by the species of the aquatic plants were presented. Field investigation on the estimation of the change of the bed level and the estimation of the flow characteristics were performed. The results showed that Phragmites japonica has the mitigation function of 0.3m-0.4m of the erosion in the range of higher than 1.0m/s of flow velocity at the vegetated region. Phragmites communis has the mitigation function of 0.2m-0.3m of the erosion in the range of higher than 0.7m/s of flow velocity at the vegetated region. Salix gracilistyla has greater role than Phragmites japonica and Phragmites communis to sustain the stable channel. It has the mitigation function of 0.4m-0.5m of the erosion in the range of higher than 1.4m/s of flow velocity. Miscanthus sacchariflorus has a weak role compared with that of Phragmites japonica and Salix gracilistyla, but it has still function for sustaining the stable bed. From these results, the vegetation has effective roles to mitigate the erosion or to facilitate the deposition of the stream bed.

Keywords: Aquatic plants, Phragmites japonica, Phragmites communis, Miscanthus sacchariflorus, Salix gracilistyla.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Kenji Shimoda, Hitoshi Takata

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This paper presents a method of model selection and identification of Hammerstein systems by hybridization of the genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). An unknown nonlinear static part to be estimated is approximately represented by an automatic choosing function (ACF) model. The weighting parameters of the ACF and the system parameters of the linear dynamic part are estimated by the linear least-squares method. On the other hand, the adjusting parameters of the ACF model structure are properly selected by the hybrid algorithm of the GA and PSO, where the Akaike information criterion is utilized as the evaluation value function. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid algorithm.

Keywords: Hammerstein system, identification, automatic choosing function model, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: K. Hosseini, MD., R. Mazaheri, MD., H.R. Khoddami Vishteh, MD., M.A. Mansournia, MD., H. Angoorani, MD

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Background: Tissue Doppler Echocardiography (TDE) assesses diastolic function more accurately than routine pulse Doppler echo. Assessment of the effects of dynamic and static exercises on the heart by using TDE can provides new information about the athlete-s heart syndrome. Methods: This study was conducted on 20 elite wrestlers, 14 endurance runners at national level and 21 non-athletes as the control group. Participants underwent two-dimensional echocardiography, standard Doppler and TDE. Results: Wrestlers had the highest left ventricular mass index, enddiastolic inter-ventricular septum thickness and left ventricular Posterior wall thickness. Runners had the highest Left ventricular end-diastolic volume, LV ejection fraction, stroke volume and cardiac output. In TDE, the early diastolic velocity of mitral annulus to the late diastolic velocity ratio in athletic groups was greater than the controls with no significant difference. Conclusion: In spite of cardiac morphological changes in athletes, TDE shows that cardiac diastolic function won-t be adversely affected.

Keywords: Tissue Doppler Echocardiography, Diastolic function, Athlete's heart syndrome, Static exercise, Dynamic exercise

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Authors: Naser Zourikalatehsamad, Seyed Abdorreza Payambarpour, Ibrahim Alwashali, Zahra Abdolkarimi

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The paper aims to evaluate the effect of online advertising on consumer purchase behavior in Malaysian organizations. The paper has potential to extend and refine theory. A survey was distributed among Students of UTM university during the winter 2014 and 160 responses were collected. Regression analysis was used to test the hypothesized relationships of the model. Result shows that the predictors (cost saving factor, convenience factor and customized product or services) have positive impact on intention to continue seeking online advertising.

Keywords: Consumer purchase, convenience, customized product, cost saving, customization, flow theory, mass communication, online advertising ads, online advertising measurement, online advertising mechanism, online intelligence system, self-confidence, willingness to purchase.

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Authors: Hussam Al-Shorman, Yosef Hasan Jbara

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A business case is a proposal for an investment initiative to satisfy business and functional requirements. The business case provides the foundation for tactical decision making and technology risk management. It helps to clarify how the organization will use its resources in the best way by providing justification for investment of resources. This paper describes how simulation was used for business case benefits and return on investment for the procurement of 8 production machines. With investment costs of about 4.7 million dollars and annual operating costs of about 1.3 million, we needed to determine if the machines would provide enough cost savings and cost avoidance. We constructed a model of the existing factory environment consisting of 8 machines and subsequently, we conducted average day simulations with light and heavy volumes to facilitate planning decisions required to be documented and substantiated in the business case.

Keywords: Investment cost, business case, return on investment, simulation.

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Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Tarik Agouti, Abdessadek Tikniouine

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This paper discusses the intake of combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems, to generate an integrated analysis process dealing with complex multi-criteria decision-making situations. In this context, a multi-agent modeling is presented for decision support systems by combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems. The proposed modeling which consists in performing the multi-agent system (MAS) architecture, procedure and protocol of the negotiation model is elaborated as a decision support tool for complex decision-making environments. Our objective is to take advantage from the multi-agent system which distributes resources and computational capabilities across interconnected agents, and provide a problem modeling in terms of autonomous interacting component-agents. Thus, the identification and evaluation of criteria as well as the evaluation and ranking of alternatives in a decision support situation will be performed by organizing tasks and user preferences between different agents in order to reach the right decision. At the end, an illustrative example is conducted to demonstrate the function and effectiveness of our MAS modeling.

Keywords: Multidimensional Analysis, OLAP Analysis, Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, Multi-Agent System, Decision Support System.

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Authors: S. Adhirai, R. P. Mahapatra, Paramjit Singh

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Optimization is an important tool in making decisions and in analysing physical systems. In mathematical terms, an optimization problem is the problem of finding the best solution from among the set of all feasible solutions. The paper discusses the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), and its applications in different fields. The algorithm is tested using MATLAB because of its unique and powerful features. The benchmark functions used in WOA algorithm are grouped as: unimodal (F1-F7), multimodal (F8-F13), and fixed-dimension multimodal (F14-F23). Out of these benchmark functions, we show the experimental results for F7, F11, and F19 for different number of iterations. The search space and objective space for the selected function are drawn, and finally, the best solution as well as the best optimal value of the objective function found by WOA is presented. The algorithmic results demonstrate that the WOA performs better than the state-of-the-art meta-heuristic and conventional algorithms.

Keywords: Optimization, optimal value, objective function, optimization problems, meta-heuristic optimization algorithms, Whale Optimization Algorithm, Implementation, MATLAB.

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Authors: Mohammad Ahmed Rehmatullah

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The aim of this paper is to discuss a low-cost methodology that can predict traffic flow conflicts and quantitatively rank crash expectancies (based on relative probability) for various traffic facilities. This paper focuses on the application of statistical distributions to model traffic flow and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate traffic and discusses how to create a tool in order to predict the possibility of a traffic crash. A low-cost data collection methodology has been discussed for the heterogeneous traffic flow that exists and a GIS platform has been proposed to thematically represent traffic flow from simulations and the probability of a crash. Furthermore, discussions have been made to reflect the dynamism of the model in reference to its adaptability, adequacy, economy, and efficiency to ensure adoption.

Keywords: Heterogeneous traffic data collection, Monte CarloSimulation, Traffic Flow Modeling, GIS.

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Authors: Mohd Iqbal Ridwan, Kerk Lee Yen, Aminuddin Musa, Bahisham Yunus

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Protective relays are components of a protection system in a power system domain that provides decision making element for correct protection and fault clearing operations. Failure of the protection devices may reduce the integrity and reliability of the power system protection that will impact the overall performance of the power system. Hence it is imperative for power utilities to assess the reliability of protective relays to assure it will perform its intended function without failure. This paper will discuss the application of reliability analysis using statistical method called Life Data Analysis in Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB), a government linked power utility company in Malaysia, namely Transmission Division, to assess and evaluate the reliability of numerical overcurrent protective relays from two different manufacturers.

Keywords: Life data analysis, Protective relays, Reliability, Weibull Distribution.

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Authors: Susmita Das, Kala Praveen Bagadi

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SDMA (Space-Division Multiple Access) is a MIMO (Multiple-Input and Multiple-Output) based wireless communication network architecture which has the potential to significantly increase the spectral efficiency and the system performance. The maximum likelihood (ML) detection provides the optimal performance, but its complexity increases exponentially with the constellation size of modulation and number of users. The QR decomposition (QRD) MUD can be a substitute to ML detection due its low complexity and near optimal performance. The minimum mean-squared-error (MMSE) multiuser detection (MUD) minimises the mean square error (MSE), which may not give guarantee that the BER of the system is also minimum. But the minimum bit error rate (MBER) MUD performs better than the classic MMSE MUD in term of minimum probability of error by directly minimising the BER cost function. Also the MBER MUD is able to support more users than the number of receiving antennas, whereas the rest of MUDs fail in this scenario. In this paper the performance of various MUD techniques is verified for the correlated MIMO channel models based on IEEE 802.16n standard.

Keywords: Multiple input multiple output, multiuser detection, orthogonal frequency division multiplexing, space division multiple access, Bit error rate

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Authors: Srinath Shetty K., Shivashankar R., Rashmi P. Shetty

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Earth reinforcing techniques have become useful and economical to solve problems related to difficult grounds and provide satisfactory foundation performance. In this context, this paper uses radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for predicting the bearing pressure of strip footing on reinforced granular bed overlying weak soil. The inputs for the neural network models included plate width, thickness of granular bed and number of layers of reinforcements, settlement ratio, water content, dry density, cohesion and angle of friction. The results indicated that RBFNN model exhibited more than 84 % prediction accuracy, thereby demonstrating its application in a geotechnical problem.

Keywords: Bearing pressure, granular bed, radial basis function neural network, strip footing.

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Authors: Sadi Vural, Hiromi Tomii, Hironori Yamauchi

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As far as the latest technological improvements are concerned, digital systems more become popular than the past. Despite this growing demand to the digital systems, content copy and attack against the digital cinema contents becomes a serious problem. To solve the above security problem, we propose “traceable watermarking using Hash functions for digital cinema system. Digital Cinema is a great application for traceable watermarking since it uses watermarking technology during content play as well as content transmission. The watermark is embedded into the randomly selected movie frames using CRC-32 techniques. CRC-32 is a Hash function. Using it, the embedding position is distributed by Hash Function so that any party cannot break off the watermarking or will not be able to change. Finally, our experimental results show that proposed DWT watermarking method using CRC-32 is much better than the convenient watermarking techniques in terms of robustness, image quality and its simple but unbreakable algorithm.

Keywords: Decoder, Digital content, JPEG2000 Frame, System-On-Chip, traceable watermark, Hash Function, CRC-32.

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Authors: Labiba Gilani, Asifullah Khan, Anwar M. Mirza

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This paper introduces a technique of distortion estimation in image watermarking using Genetic Programming (GP). The distortion is estimated by considering the problem of obtaining a distorted watermarked signal from the original watermarked signal as a function regression problem. This function regression problem is solved using GP, where the original watermarked signal is considered as an independent variable. GP-based distortion estimation scheme is checked for Gaussian attack and Jpeg compression attack. We have used Gaussian attacks of different strengths by changing the standard deviation. JPEG compression attack is also varied by adding various distortions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed technique is able to detect the watermark even in the case of strong distortions and is more robust against attacks.

Keywords: Blind Watermarking, Genetic Programming (GP), Fitness Function, Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT).

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Authors: Sukhveer Singh, Sandeep Singh

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A bi-objective fuzzy transportation problem with the objectives to minimize the total fuzzy cost and fuzzy time of transportation without according priorities to them is considered. To the best of our knowledge, there is no method in the literature to find efficient solutions of the bi-objective transportation problem under uncertainty. In this paper, a bi-objective transportation problem in an uncertain environment has been formulated. An algorithm has been proposed to find efficient solutions of the bi-objective transportation problem under uncertainty. The proposed algorithm avoids the degeneracy and gives the optimal solution faster than other existing algorithms for the given uncertain transportation problem.

Keywords: Transportation problem, efficient solution, ranking function, fuzzy transportation problem.

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Authors: John N. Ellinas, Panagiotis Kenterlis

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The efficiency of an image watermarking technique depends on the preservation of visually significant information. This is attained by embedding the watermark transparently with the maximum possible strength. The current paper presents an approach for still image digital watermarking in which the watermark embedding process employs the wavelet transform and incorporates Human Visual System (HVS) characteristics. The sensitivity of a human observer to contrast with respect to spatial frequency is described by the Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF). The strength of the watermark within the decomposition subbands, which occupy an interval on the spatial frequencies, is adjusted according to this sensitivity. Moreover, the watermark embedding process is carried over the subband coefficients that lie on edges where distortions are less noticeable. The experimental evaluation of the proposed method shows very good results in terms of robustness and transparency.

Keywords: Image watermarking, wavelet transform, human visual system, contrast sensitivity function.

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Authors: Marzieh Imani

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Antoni Gaudi and Santiago Calatrava have reputation for designing bio-inspired creative and technical buildings. Even though they have followed different independent approaches towards design, the source of bio-inspiration seems to be common. Taking a closer look at their projects reveals that Calatrava has been influenced by Gaudi in terms of interpreting nature and applying natural principles into the design process. This research firstly discusses the dialogue between Biomimicry and architecture. This review also explores human/nature discourse during the history by focusing on how nature revealed itself to the fine arts. This is explained by introducing naturalism and romantic style in architecture as the outcome of designers’ inclination towards nature. Reviewing the literature, theoretical background and practical illustration of nature have been included. The most dominant practical aspects of imitating nature are form and function. Nature has been reflected in architectural science resulted in shaping different architectural styles such as organic, green, sustainable, bionic, and biomorphic. By defining a set of common aspects of Gaudi and Calatrava‘s design approach and by considering biomimetic design categories (organism, ecosystem, and behaviour as the main division and form, function, process, material, and construction as subdivisions), Gaudi’s and Calatrava’s project have been analysed. This analysis explores if their design approaches are equivalent or different. Based on this analysis, Gaudi’s architecture can be recognised as biomorphic while Calatrava’s projects are literally biomimetic. Referring to these architects, this review suggests a new set of principles by which a bio-inspired project can be determined either biomorphic or biomimetic.

Keywords: Biomimicry, Calatrava, Gaudi, nature.

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Authors: C. T. S. Ching, P. W. C hen, T. P. Sun, H. L. Shieh

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The biomarker for colorectal cancer (CRC) is CEACAM-6 antigen (C6AG). Therefore, this study aims to develop a novel, simple and low-cost CEACAM-6 antigen immumosensor (C6AG-IMS), based on electrical impedance measurement, for precise determination of C6AG. A low-cost screen-printed graphite electrode was constructed and used as the sensor, with CEACAM-6 antibody (C6AB) immobilized on it. The procedures of sensor fabrication and antibody immobilization are simple and low-cost. Measurement of the electrical impedance at a definite frequency ranges (0.43 – 1.26 MHz) showed that the C6AG-IMS has an excellent linear (r2>0.9) response range (8.125 – 65 pg/mL), covering the normal physiological and pathological ranges of blood C6AG levels. Also, the C6AG-IMS has excellent reliability and validity, with the intraclass correlation coefficient being 0.97. In conclusion, a novel, simple, low-cost and reliable C6AG-IMS was designed and developed, being able to accurately determine blood C6AG levels in the range of pathological and normal physiological regions. The C6AG-IMS can provide a point-of-care and immediate screening results to the user at home.

Keywords: Colorectal Cancer, Immunosensor, Electrical Impedance, CEACAM-6, Measurement, Point-of-Care

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: Petra Wächter

Abstract:

A comprehensive discussion of feasible strategies for sustainable energy supply is urgently needed to achieve a turnaround of the current energy situation. The necessary fundamentals required for the development of a long term energy vision are lacking to a great extent due to the absence of reasonable long term scenarios that fulfill the requirements of climate protection and sustainable energy use. The contribution of the study is based on a search for sustainable energy paths in the long run for Austria. The analysis makes use of secondary data predominantly. The measures developed to avoid CO2 emissions and other ecological risk factors vary to a great extent among all economic sectors. This is shown by the calculation of CO2 cost of abatement curves. In this study it is demonstrated that the most effective technical measures with the lowest CO2 abatement costs yield solutions to the current energy problems. Various scenarios are presented concerning the question how the technological and environmental options for a sustainable energy system for Austria could look like in the long run. It is shown how sustainable energy can be supplied even with today-s technological knowledge and options available. The scenarios developed include an evaluation of the economic costs and ecological impacts. The results are not only applicable to Austria but demonstrate feasible and cost efficient ways towards a sustainable future.

Keywords: Cost of CO2 Abatement, Energy Economics, Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Technologies, Sustainable Energy and Development.

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Authors: V.Pavlika

Abstract:

In this paper a numerical algorithm is described for solving the boundary value problem associated with axisymmetric, inviscid, incompressible, rotational (and irrotational) flow in order to obtain duct wall shapes from prescribed wall velocity distributions. The governing equations are formulated in terms of the stream function ψ (x,y)and the function φ (x,y)as independent variables where for irrotational flow φ (x,y)can be recognized as the velocity potential function, for rotational flow φ (x,y)ceases being the velocity potential function but does remain orthogonal to the stream lines. A numerical method based on the finite difference scheme on a uniform mesh is employed. The technique described is capable of tackling the so-called inverse problem where the velocity wall distributions are prescribed from which the duct wall shape is calculated, as well as the direct problem where the velocity distribution on the duct walls are calculated from prescribed duct geometries. The two different cases as outlined in this paper are in fact boundary value problems with Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions respectively. Even though both approaches are discussed, only numerical results for the case of the Dirichlet boundary conditions are given. A downstream condition is prescribed such that cylindrical flow, that is flow which is independent of the axial coordinate, exists.

Keywords: Inverse problem, irrotational incompressible flow, Boundary value problem.

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Authors: Maumita Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Evolutionary Algorithms are population-based, stochastic search techniques, widely used as efficient global optimizers. However, many real life optimization problems often require finding optimal solution to complex high dimensional, multimodal problems involving computationally very expensive fitness function evaluations. Use of evolutionary algorithms in such problem domains is thus practically prohibitive. An attractive alternative is to build meta models or use an approximation of the actual fitness functions to be evaluated. These meta models are order of magnitude cheaper to evaluate compared to the actual function evaluation. Many regression and interpolation tools are available to build such meta models. This paper briefly discusses the architectures and use of such meta-modeling tools in an evolutionary optimization context. We further present two evolutionary algorithm frameworks which involve use of meta models for fitness function evaluation. The first framework, namely the Dynamic Approximate Fitness based Hybrid EA (DAFHEA) model [14] reduces computation time by controlled use of meta-models (in this case approximate model generated by Support Vector Machine regression) to partially replace the actual function evaluation by approximate function evaluation. However, the underlying assumption in DAFHEA is that the training samples for the metamodel are generated from a single uniform model. This does not take into account uncertain scenarios involving noisy fitness functions. The second model, DAFHEA-II, an enhanced version of the original DAFHEA framework, incorporates a multiple-model based learning approach for the support vector machine approximator to handle noisy functions [15]. Empirical results obtained by evaluating the frameworks using several benchmark functions demonstrate their efficiency

Keywords: Meta model, Evolutionary algorithm, Stochastictechnique, Fitness function, Optimization, Support vector machine.

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Authors: Usha Sridhar, Sridhar Mandyam

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We propose a multi-agent based utilitarian approach to model and understand information flows in social networks that lead to Pareto optimal informational exchanges. We model the individual expected utility function of the agents to reflect the net value of information received. We show how this model, adapted from a theorem by Karl Borch dealing with an actuarial Risk Exchange concept in the Insurance industry, can be used for social network analysis. We develop a utilitarian framework that allows us to interpret Pareto optimal exchanges of value as potential information flows, while achieving a maximization of a sum of expected utilities of information of the group of agents. We examine some interesting conditions on the utility function under which the flows are optimal. We illustrate the promise of this new approach to attach economic value to information in networks with a synthetic example.

Keywords: Borch's Theorem , Economic value of information, Information Exchange, Pareto Optimal Solution, Social Networks, Utility Functions

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Authors: Toshiaki Yanada, Kazumi Ishikawa

Abstract:

The present paper deals with the analysis and development of noise-reduction transformer that has a filter function for conductive noise transmission. Two types of prototype noise-reduction transformers with two different output voltages are proposed. To determine an optimum design for the noise-reduction transformer, noise attenuation characteristics are discussed based on the experiments and the equivalent circuit analysis. The analysis gives a relation between the circuit parameters and the noise attenuation. High performance step-down noise-reduction transformer for direct power supply to electronics equipment is developed. The input voltage of the transformer is 100 V and the output voltage is 5 V. Frequency characteristics of noise attenuation are discussed, and prevention of pulse noise transmission is demonstrated. Normal mode noise attenuation of this transformer is –80 dB, and common mode exceeds –90 dB. The step-down noise-reduction transformer eliminates pulse noise efficiently.

Keywords: conductive noise, EMC, EMI, noise attenuation, transformer.

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Authors: Tamara Grujic, Mirjana Bonkovic

Abstract:

Measurements and quantitative analysis of kinematic parameters of human hand movements have an important role in different areas such as hand function rehabilitation, modeling of multi-digits robotic hands, and the development of machine-man interfaces. In this paper the assessment and evaluation of the reachto- grasp movement by using computerized and robot-assisted method is described. Experiment involved the measurements of hand positions of seven healthy subjects during grasping three objects of different shapes and sizes. Results showed that three dominant phases of reach-to-grasp movements could be clearly identified.

Keywords: Human hand, kinematics, reach-to-grasp movement.

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

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Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: Property damage analysis, effectiveness, ADAS, damage risk, accident research, accident scenarios.

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper aims to select the best military attack helicopter to purchase by the Armed Forces and provide greater reconnaissance and offensive combat capability in military operations. For this purpose, a multiple criteria decision analysis method integrated with the variance weight procedure was applied to the military attack helicopter selection problem. A real military aviation case problem is conducted to support the Armed Forces decision-making process and contributes to the better performance of the Armed Forces. Application of the methodology resulted in ranking lists for ordering and prioritizing attack helicopters, providing transparency and simplicity to the decision-making process. Nine military attack helicopter models were analyzed in the light of strategic, tactical, and operational criteria, considering attack helicopters. The selected military attack helicopter would be used for fire support and reconnaissance activities required by the Armed Forces operation. This study makes a valuable contribution to the problem of military attack helicopter selection, as it represents a state-of-the-art application of the MCDMA method to contribute to the solution of a real problem of the Armed Forces. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to solve real problems of a wide variety, especially strategic, tactical and operational, and is, therefore, a very useful method for decision making.

Keywords: aircraft selection, military attack helicopter selection, attack helicopter fleet planning, MCDMA, multiple criteria analysis, multiple criteria decision making analysis, distance function measure

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