Search results for: two phase model.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8569

Search results for: two phase model.

3169 Similitude for Thermal Scale-up of a Multiphase Thermolysis Reactor in the Cu-Cl Cycle of a Hydrogen Production

Authors: Mohammed W. Abdulrahman

Abstract:

The thermochemical copper-chlorine (Cu-Cl) cycle is considered as a sustainable and efficient technology for a hydrogen production, when linked with clean-energy systems such as nuclear reactors or solar thermal plants. In the Cu-Cl cycle, water is decomposed thermally into hydrogen and oxygen through a series of intermediate reactions. This paper investigates the thermal scale up analysis of the three phase oxygen production reactor in the Cu-Cl cycle, where the reaction is endothermic and the temperature is about 530 oC. The paper focuses on examining the size and number of oxygen reactors required to provide enough heat input for different rates of hydrogen production. The type of the multiphase reactor used in this paper is the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) that is heated by a half pipe jacket. The thermal resistance of each section in the jacketed reactor system is studied to examine its effect on the heat balance of the reactor. It is found that the dominant contribution to the system thermal resistance is from the reactor wall. In the analysis, the Cu-Cl cycle is assumed to be driven by a nuclear reactor where two types of nuclear reactors are examined as the heat source to the oxygen reactor. These types are the CANDU Super Critical Water Reactor (CANDU-SCWR) and High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR). It is concluded that a better heat transfer rate has to be provided for CANDU-SCWR by 3-4 times than HTGR. The effect of the reactor aspect ratio is also examined in this paper and is found that increasing the aspect ratio decreases the number of reactors and the rate of decrease in the number of reactors decreases by increasing the aspect ratio. Finally, a comparison between the results of heat balance and existing results of mass balance is performed and is found that the size of the oxygen reactor is dominated by the heat balance rather than the material balance.

Keywords: Clean energy, Cu-Cl cycle, heat transfer, sustainable energy.

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3168 A New Velocity Expression for Open Channel and its Application to Lyari River

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

In this communication an expression for mean velocity of waste flow via an open channel is proposed which is an improvement over Manning formula. The discharges, storages and depths are computed at all locations of the Lyari river by utilizing proposed expression. The results attained through proposed expression are in good agreement with the observed data and better than those acquired using Manning formula.

Keywords: Comparison, Depth, Flow, Open Channel, Proposed Model, Storage

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3167 A NonLinear Observer of an Electrical Transformer: A Bond Graph Approach

Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A , Israel Nuñez

Abstract:

A bond graph model of an electrical transformer including the nonlinear saturation is presented. A nonlinear observer for the transformer based on multivariable circle criterion in the physical domain is proposed. In order to show the saturation and hysteresis effects on the electrical transformer, simulation results are obtained. Finally, the paper describes that convergence of the estimates to the true states is achieved.

Keywords: Bond graph, nonlinear observer, electrical transformer, nonlinear saturation.

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3166 Red Diode Laser in the Treatment of Epidermal Diseases in PDT

Authors: Farhad H. Mustafa, Mohamad S. Jaafar , Asaad H. Ismail, Ahamad F. Omar, Zahra A. Timimi, Hend A. A. Houssein

Abstract:

The process of laser absorption in the skin during laser irradiation was a critical point in medical application treatments. Delivery the correct amount of laser light is a critical element in photodynamic therapy (PDT). More amounts of laser light able to affect tissues in the skin and small amount not able to enhance PDT procedure in skin. The knowledge of the skin tone laser dependent distribution of 635 nm radiation and its penetration depth in skin is a very important precondition for the investigation of advantage laser induced effect in (PDT) in epidermis diseases (psoriasis). The aim of this work was to estimate an optimum effect of diode laser (635 nm) on the treatment of epidermis diseases in different color skin. Furthermore, it is to improve safety of laser in PDT in epidermis diseases treatment. Advanced system analytical program (ASAP) which is a new approach in investigating the PDT, dependent on optical properties of different skin color was used in present work. A two layered Realistic Skin Model (RSM); stratum corneum and epidermal with red laser (635 nm, 10 mW) were used for irradiative transfer to study fluence and absorbance in different penetration for various human skin colors. Several skin tones very fair, fair, light, medium and dark are used to irradiative transfer. This investigation involved the principles of laser tissue interaction when the skin optically injected by a red laser diode. The results demonstrated that the power characteristic of a laser diode (635 nm) can affect the treatment of epidermal disease in various color skins. Power absorption of the various human skins were recorded and analyzed in order to find the influence of the melanin in PDT treatment in epidermal disease. A two layered RSM show that the change in penetration depth in epidermal layer of the color skin has a larger effect on the distribution of absorbed laser in the skin; this is due to the variation of the melanin concentration for each color.

Keywords: Photodynamic therapy, Realistic skin model, Laser, Light penetration, simulation, Optical properties of skin, Melanin.

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3165 Calibration Method for an Augmented Reality System

Authors: S. Malek, N. Zenati-Henda, M. Belhocine, S. Benbelkacem

Abstract:

In geometrical camera calibration, the objective is to determine a set of camera parameters that describe the mapping between 3D references coordinates and 2D image coordinates. In this paper, a technique of calibration and tracking based on both a least squares method is presented and a correlation technique developed as part of an augmented reality system. This approach is fast and it can be used for a real time system

Keywords: Camera calibration, pinhole model, least squares method, augmented reality, strong calibration.

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3164 Multiscale Modelization of Multilayered Bi-Dimensional Soils

Authors: I. Hosni, L. Bennaceur Farah, N. Saber, R Bennaceur

Abstract:

Soil moisture content is a key variable in many environmental sciences. Even though it represents a small proportion of the liquid freshwater on Earth, it modulates interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, thereby influencing climate and weather. Accurate modeling of the above processes depends on the ability to provide a proper spatial characterization of soil moisture. The measurement of soil moisture content allows assessment of soil water resources in the field of hydrology and agronomy. The second parameter in interaction with the radar signal is the geometric structure of the soil. Most traditional electromagnetic models consider natural surfaces as single scale zero mean stationary Gaussian random processes. Roughness behavior is characterized by statistical parameters like the Root Mean Square (RMS) height and the correlation length. Then, the main problem is that the agreement between experimental measurements and theoretical values is usually poor due to the large variability of the correlation function, and as a consequence, backscattering models have often failed to predict correctly backscattering. In this study, surfaces are considered as band-limited fractal random processes corresponding to a superposition of a finite number of one-dimensional Gaussian process each one having a spatial scale. Multiscale roughness is characterized by two parameters, the first one is proportional to the RMS height, and the other one is related to the fractal dimension. Soil moisture is related to the complex dielectric constant. This multiscale description has been adapted to two-dimensional profiles using the bi-dimensional wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm to describe more correctly natural surfaces. We characterize the soil surfaces and sub-surfaces by a three layers geo-electrical model. The upper layer is described by its dielectric constant, thickness, a multiscale bi-dimensional surface roughness model by using the wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm, and volume scattering parameters. The lower layer is divided into three fictive layers separated by an assumed plane interface. These three layers were modeled by an effective medium characterized by an apparent effective dielectric constant taking into account the presence of air pockets in the soil. We have adopted the 2D multiscale three layers small perturbations model including, firstly air pockets in the soil sub-structure, and then a vegetable canopy in the soil surface structure, that is to simulate the radar backscattering. A sensitivity analysis of backscattering coefficient dependence on multiscale roughness and new soil moisture has been performed. Later, we proposed to change the dielectric constant of the multilayer medium because it takes into account the different moisture values of each layer in the soil. A sensitivity analysis of the backscattering coefficient, including the air pockets in the volume structure with respect to the multiscale roughness parameters and the apparent dielectric constant, was carried out. Finally, we proposed to study the behavior of the backscattering coefficient of the radar on a soil having a vegetable layer in its surface structure.

Keywords: Multiscale, bi-dimensional, wavelets, SPM, backscattering, multilayer, air pockets, vegetable.

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3163 Design and Construction of PIC-Based IR Remote Control Moving Robot

Authors: Sanda Win, Tin Shein, Khin Maung Latt

Abstract:

This document describes an electronic speed control designed to drive two DC motors from a 6 V battery pack to be controlled by a commercial universal infrared remote control hand set. Conceived for a tank-like vehicle, one motor drives the left side wheels or tracks and the other motor drives the right side. As it is shown here, there is a left-right steering input and a forward– backward throttles input, like would be used on a model car. It is designed using a microcontroller PIC16F873A.

Keywords: Assembly Language, Direction Control, SpeedControl, PIC 16F 873A

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3162 Treatment of Spin-1/2 Particle in Interaction with a Time-Dependent Magnetic Field by the Fermionic Coherent-State Path-Integral Formalism

Authors: Aouachria Mekki

Abstract:

We consider a spin-1/2 particle interacting with a time-dependent magnetic field using path integral formalism. The propagator is first of all written in the standard form replacing the spin by two fermionic oscillators via the Schwinger model. The propagator is then exactly determined, thanks to a simple transformation, and the transition probability is deduced.

Keywords: Path integral, formalism, Propagator.

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3161 Global Existence of Periodic Solutions in a Delayed Tri–neuron Network

Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Zhaohui Wen

Abstract:

In this paper, a tri–neuron network model with time delay is investigated. By using the Bendixson-s criterion for high– dimensional ordinary differential equations and global Hopf bifurcation theory for functional differential equations, sufficient conditions for existence of periodic solutions when the time delay is sufficiently large are established.

Keywords: Delay, global Hopf bifurcation, neural network, periodicsolutions.

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3160 Propagation of Electron-Acoustic Solitary Waves in Weakly Relativistically Degenerate Fermi Plasma

Authors: Swarniv Chandra, Basudev Ghosh, S. N. Paul

Abstract:

Using one dimensional Quantum hydrodynamic (QHD) model Korteweg de Vries (KdV) solitary excitations of electron-acoustic waves (EAWs) have been examined in twoelectron- populated relativistically degenerate super dense plasma. It is found that relativistic degeneracy parameter influences the conditions of formation and properties of solitary structures.

Keywords: Relativistic Degeneracy, Electron-Acoustic Waves, Quantum Plasma, KdV Equation.

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3159 Partial Derivatives and Optimization Problem on Time Scales

Authors: Francisco Miranda

Abstract:

The optimization problem using time scales is studied. Time scale is a model of time. The language of time scales seems to be an ideal tool to unify the continuous-time and the discrete-time theories. In this work we present necessary conditions for a solution of an optimization problem on time scales. To obtain that result we use properties and results of the partial diamond-alpha derivatives for continuous-multivariable functions. These results are also presented here.

Keywords: Lagrange multipliers, mathematical programming, optimization problem, time scales.

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3158 Comparison of Data Reduction Algorithms for Image-Based Point Cloud Derived Digital Terrain Models

Authors: M. Uysal, M. Yilmaz, I. Tiryakioğlu

Abstract:

Digital Terrain Model (DTM) is a digital numerical representation of the Earth's surface. DTMs have been applied to a diverse field of tasks, such as urban planning, military, glacier mapping, disaster management. In the expression of the Earth' surface as a mathematical model, an infinite number of point measurements are needed. Because of the impossibility of this case, the points at regular intervals are measured to characterize the Earth's surface and DTM of the Earth is generated. Hitherto, the classical measurement techniques and photogrammetry method have widespread use in the construction of DTM. At present, RADAR, LiDAR, and stereo satellite images are also used for the construction of DTM. In recent years, especially because of its superiorities, Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) has an increased use in DTM applications. A 3D point cloud is created with LiDAR technology by obtaining numerous point data. However recently, by the development in image mapping methods, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for photogrammetric data acquisition has increased DTM generation from image-based point cloud. The accuracy of the DTM depends on various factors such as data collection method, the distribution of elevation points, the point density, properties of the surface and interpolation methods. In this study, the random data reduction method is compared for DTMs generated from image based point cloud data. The original image based point cloud data set (100%) is reduced to a series of subsets by using random algorithm, representing the 75, 50, 25 and 5% of the original image based point cloud data set. Over the ANS campus of Afyon Kocatepe University as the test area, DTM constructed from the original image based point cloud data set is compared with DTMs interpolated from reduced data sets by Kriging interpolation method. The results show that the random data reduction method can be used to reduce the image based point cloud datasets to 50% density level while still maintaining the quality of DTM.

Keywords: DTM, unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV, random, Kriging.

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3157 Research and Development of Net-Centric Information Sharing Platform

Authors: Xiaoqing Wang, Fang Youyuan, Zheng Yanxing, Gu Tianyang, Zong Jianjian, Tong Jinrong

Abstract:

Compared with traditional distributed environment, the net-centric environment brings on more demanding challenges for information sharing with the characteristics of ultra-large scale and strong distribution, dynamic, autonomy, heterogeneity, redundancy. This paper realizes an information sharing model and a series of core services, through which provides an open, flexible and scalable information sharing platform.

Keywords: Net-centric environment, Information sharing, Metadata registry and catalog, Cross-domain data access control.

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3156 Persistence of Termination for Non-Overlapping Term Rewriting Systems

Authors: Munehiro Iwami

Abstract:

A property is called persistent if for any many-sorted term rewriting system , has the property if and only if term rewriting system , which results from by omitting its sort information, has the property. In this paper,we show that termination is persistent for non-overlapping term rewriting systems and we give the example as application of this result. Furthermore we obtain that completeness is persistent for non-overlapping term rewriting systems.

Keywords: Theory of computing, Model-based reasoning, termrewriting system, termination

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3155 Microstructure and Corrosion Behavior of Laser Welded Magnesium Alloys with Silver Nanoparticles

Authors: M. Ishak, K. Yamasaki, K. Maekawa

Abstract:

Magnesium alloys have gained increased attention in recent years in automotive, electronics, and medical industry. This because of magnesium alloys have better properties than aluminum alloys and steels in respects of their low density and high strength to weight ratio. However, the main problems of magnesium alloy welding are the crack formation and the appearance of porosity during the solidification. This paper proposes a unique technique to weld two thin sheets of AZ31B magnesium alloy using a paste containing Ag nanoparticles. The paste containing Ag nanoparticles of 5 nm in average diameter and an organic solvent was used to coat the surface of AZ31B thin sheet. The coated sheet was heated at 100 °C for 60 s to evaporate the solvent. The dried sheet was set as a lower AZ31B sheet on the jig, and then lap fillet welding was carried out by using a pulsed Nd:YAG laser in a closed box filled with argon gas. The characteristics of the microstructure and the corrosion behavior of the joints were analyzed by opticalmicroscopy (OM), energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS), electron probe micro-analyzer (EPMA), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and immersion corrosion test. The experimental results show that the wrought AZ31B magnesium alloy can be joined successfully using Ag nanoparticles. Ag nanoparticles insert promote grain refinement, narrower the HAZ width and wider bond width compared to weld without and insert. Corrosion rate of welded AZ31B with Ag nanoparticles reduced up to 44 % compared to base metal. The improvement of corrosion resistance of welded AZ31B with Ag nanoparticles due to finer grains and large grain boundaries area which consist of high Al content. β-phase Mg17Al12 could serve as effective barrier and suppressed further propagation of corrosion. Furthermore, Ag distribution in fusion zone provide much more finer grains and may stabilize the magnesium solid solution making it less soluble or less anodic in aqueous

Keywords: Laser welding, magnesium alloys, nanoparticles, mechanical property

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3154 Functionality of Negotiation Agent on Value-based Design Decision

Authors: Arazi Idrus, Christiono Utomo

Abstract:

This paper presents functionality of negotiation agent on value-based design decision. The functionality is based on the characteristics of the system and goal specification. A Prometheus Design Tool model was used for developing the system. Group functionality will be the attribute for negotiation agents, which comprises a coordinator agent and decision- maker agent. The results of the testing of the system to a building system selection on valuebased decision environment are also presented.

Keywords: Functionality, negotiation agent, value-baseddecision

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3153 Design and Instrumentation of a Benchmark Multivariable Nonlinear Control Laboratory

Authors: S. H. Teh, S. Malawaraarachci, W. P. Chan, A. Nassirharand

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present the design and instrumentation of a new benchmark multivariable nonlinear control laboratory. The mathematical model of this system may be used to test the applicability and performance of various nonlinear control procedures. The system is a two degree-of-freedom robotic arm with soft and hard (discontinuous) nonlinear terms. Two novel mechanisms are designed to allow the implementation of adjustable Coulomb friction and backlash.

Keywords: Nonlinear control, describing functions, AdjustableCoulomb friction, Adjustable backlash.

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3152 An Experience Report on Course Teaching in Information Systems

Authors: Carlos Oliveira

Abstract:

This paper is a criticism of the traditional model of teaching and presents alternative teaching methods, different from the traditional lecture. These methods are accompanied by reports of experience of their application in a class. It was concluded that in the lecture, the student has a low learning rate and that other methods should be used to make the most engaging learning environment for the student, contributing (or facilitating) his learning process. However, the teacher should not use a single method, but rather a range of different methods to ensure the learning experience does not become repetitive and fatiguing for the student.

Keywords: Educational practices, experience report, IT in education, teaching methods.

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3151 Control of Chaotic Dynamical Systems using RBF Networks

Authors: Yoichi Ishikawa, Yuichi Masukake, Yoshihisa Ishida

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel control method based on radial basis function networks (RBFNs) for chaotic dynamical systems. The proposed method first identifies the nonlinear part of the chaotic system off-line and then constructs a model-following controller using only the estimated system parameters. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

Keywords: Chaos, nonlinear plant, radial basis function network.

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3150 Engineering Education for Sustainable Development in China: Perceptions Bias between Experienced Engineers and Engineering Students

Authors: Liang Wang, Wei Zhang

Abstract:

Nowadays sustainable development has increasingly become an important research topic of engineering education all over the world. Engineering Education for Sustainable Development (EESD) highlighted the importance of addressing sustainable development in engineering practice. However, whether and how the professional engineering learning and experience affect those perceptions is an interesting research topic especially in Chinese context. Our study fills this gap by investigating perceptions bias of EESD among first-grade engineering students, fourth-grade engineering students and experienced engineers using a triple-dimensional model. Our goal is to find the effect of engineering learning and experience on sustainable development and make these learning and experiences more accessible for students and engineers in school and workplace context. The data (n = 138) came from a Likert questionnaire based on the triple-dimensional model of EESD adopted from literature reviews and the data contain 48 first-grade students, 56 fourth-grade students and 34 engineers with rich working experience from Environmental Engineering, Energy Engineering, Chemical Engineering and Civil Engineering in or graduated from Zhejiang University, China. One-way ANOVA analysis was used to find the difference in different dimensions among the three groups. The statistical results show that both engineering students and engineers have a well understanding of sustainable development in ecology dimension of EESD while there are significant differences among three groups as to the socio-economy and value rationality dimensions of EESD. The findings provide empirical evidence that both engineering learning and professional engineering experience are helpful to cultivate the cognition and perception of sustainable development in engineering education. The results of this work indicate that more practical content should be added to students’ engineering education while more theoretical content should be added to engineers’ training in order to promote the engineering students’ and engineers’ perceptions of sustainable development. In addition, as to the design of engineering courses and professional practice system for sustainable development, we should not only pay attention to the ecological aspects, but also emphasize the coordination of ecological, socio-economic and human-centered sustainable development (e.g., engineer's ethical responsibility).

Keywords: Engineering education, sustainable development, experienced engineers, engineering students.

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3149 Modelling and Analyzing a Hospital Procedureusing a Petri-Net Approach

Authors: Mourtou Efstratia, Abdel-Badeeh M. Salem, Pavlidis George

Abstract:

Hierarchical high-level PNs (HHPNs) with time versions are a useful tool to model systems in a variety of application domains, ranging from logistics to complex workflows. This paper addresses an application domain which is receiving more and more attention: procedure that arranges the final inpatient charge in payment-s office and their management. We shall prove that Petri net based analysis is able to improve the delays during the procedure, in order that inpatient charges could be more reliable and on time.

Keywords: eHealth, Petri-Nets, Hospital Services, InpatientCharges, Workflow Modeling.

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3148 The Link between Ergonomics and Occupational Diseases

Authors: Kateřina Sekulová, Michal Šimon

Abstract:

Ergonomics is a useful tool for creating a healthy and safe workplace. The long-term action of harmful conditions on the health of workers is the emergence of occupational disease, and the firm-s increased compensation costs associated with these diseases, but is also the loss of time needed for educating and including new workers in the work process. The article deals with the link of ergonomics to occupational diseases, factors which influence these diseases. In the conclusion, a model is described to help reduce the risk of selected occupational diseases using ergonomic principles and knowledge.

Keywords: ergonomics, occupational diseases, optimization, workplace health

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3147 Simulation of Online Communities Using MAS Social and Spatial Organisations

Authors: Maya Rupert, Salima Hassas, Carlos Li, John Sherwood

Abstract:

Online Communities are an example of sociallyaware, self-organising, complex adaptive computing systems. The multi-agent systems (MAS) paradigm coordinated by self-organisation mechanisms has been used as an effective way for the simulation and modeling of such systems. In this paper, we propose a model for simulating an online health community using a situated multi-agent system approach, governed by the co-evolution of the social and spatial organisations of the agents.

Keywords: multi-agent systems, organizations, online communities.

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3146 An Exact Solution to Support Vector Mixture

Authors: Monjed Ezzeddinne, Nicolas Lefebvre, Régis Lengellé

Abstract:

This paper presents a new version of the SVM mixture algorithm initially proposed by Kwok for classification and regression problems. For both cases, a slight modification of the mixture model leads to a standard SVM training problem, to the existence of an exact solution and allows the direct use of well known decomposition and working set selection algorithms. Only the regression case is considered in this paper but classification has been addressed in a very similar way. This method has been successfully applied to engine pollutants emission modeling.

Keywords: Identification, Learning systems, Mixture ofExperts, Support Vector Machines.

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3145 The Effect of a Free -Trade Agreement upon Agricultural Imports

Authors: Andres G. Victorio, Montita Rungswang

Abstract:

A free-trade agreement is found to increase Thailand-s agricultural imports from New Zealand, despite the short span of time for which the agreement has been operational. The finding is described by autoregressive estimates that correct for possible unit roots in the data. The agreement-s effect upon imports is also estimated while considering an error-correction model of imports against gross domestic product.

Keywords: Agricultural imports, free trade, unit roots, cointegration, error correction.

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3144 Multi-Objective Cellular Manufacturing System under Machines with Different Life-Cycle using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: N. Javadian, J. Rezaeian, Y. Maali

Abstract:

In this paper a multi-objective nonlinear programming model of cellular manufacturing system is presented which minimize the intercell movements and maximize the sum of reliability of cells. We present a genetic approach for finding efficient solutions to the problem of cell formation for products having multiple routings. These methods find the non-dominated solutions and according to decision makers prefer, the best solution will be chosen.

Keywords: Cellular Manufacturing, Genetic Algorithm, Multiobjective, Life-Cycle.

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3143 Design and Bandwidth Allocation of Embedded ATM Networks using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: H. El-Madbouly

Abstract:

In this paper, genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed for the design of an optimization algorithm to achieve the bandwidth allocation of ATM network. In Broadband ISDN, the ATM is a highbandwidth; fast packet switching and multiplexing technique. Using ATM it can be flexibly reconfigure the network and reassign the bandwidth to meet the requirements of all types of services. By dynamically routing the traffic and adjusting the bandwidth assignment, the average packet delay of the whole network can be reduced to a minimum. M/M/1 model can be used to analyze the performance.

Keywords: Bandwidth allocation, Genetic algorithm, ATMNetwork, packet delay.

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3142 A Comparative Study on Different Approaches to Evaluate Ship Equilibrium Point

Authors: Alessandro A. Zizzari, Francesca Calabrese, Giovanni Indiveri, Andrea Coraddu, Diego Villa

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a comparative study on two different methods for the evaluation of the equilibrium point of a ship, core issue for designing an On Board Stability System (OBSS) module that, starting from geometry information of a ship hull, described by a discrete model in a standard format, and the distribution of all weights onboard calculates the ship floating conditions (in draught, heel and trim).

Keywords: Algorithms, Computer applications, Equilibrium, Marine applications, Stability System.

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3141 Ranking Fuzzy Numbers Based on Lexicographical Ordering

Authors: B. Farhadinia

Abstract:

Although so far, many methods for ranking fuzzy numbers have been discussed broadly, most of them contained some shortcomings, such as requirement of complicated calculations, inconsistency with human intuition and indiscrimination. The motivation of this study is to develop a model for ranking fuzzy numbers based on the lexicographical ordering which provides decision-makers with a simple and efficient algorithm to generate an ordering founded on a precedence. The main emphasis here is put on the ease of use and reliability. The effectiveness of the proposed method is finally demonstrated by including a comprehensive comparing different ranking methods with the present one.

Keywords: Ranking fuzzy numbers, Lexicographical ordering.

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3140 Machine Learning Framework: Competitive Intelligence and Key Drivers Identification of Market Share Trends among Healthcare Facilities

Authors: A. Appe, B. Poluparthi, L. Kasivajjula, U. Mv, S. Bagadi, P. Modi, A. Singh, H. Gunupudi, S. Troiano, J. Paul, J. Stovall, J. Yamamoto

Abstract:

The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data are considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since it is data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for e.g., quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP, a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: Competition, DAGs, hospital, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP.

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