Search results for: minimum mean squre error (MMSE)

Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

Abstract:

In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: May-Ling Tan, Yi Su, Chi-Wan Lim, Liang Zhong, Ru-San Tan

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This paper describes an automatic algorithm to restore the shape of three-dimensional (3D) left ventricle (LV) models created from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data using a geometry-driven optimization approach. Our basic premise is to restore the LV shape such that the LV epicardial surface is smooth after the restoration. A geometrical measure known as the Minimum Principle Curvature (κ2) is used to assess the smoothness of the LV. This measure is used to construct the objective function of a two-step optimization process. The objective of the optimization is to achieve a smooth epicardial shape by iterative in-plane translation of the MRI slices. Quantitatively, this yields a minimum sum in terms of the magnitude of κ 2, when κ2 is negative. A limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm, L-BFGS-B, is used to solve the optimization problem. We tested our algorithm on an in vitro theoretical LV model and 10 in vivo patient-specific models which contain significant motion artifacts. The results show that our method is able to automatically restore the shape of LV models back to smoothness without altering the general shape of the model. The magnitudes of in-plane translations are also consistent with existing registration techniques and experimental findings.

Keywords: Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Left Ventricle, ShapeRestoration, Principle Curvature, Optimization

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Authors: Kalyan Deepak Kolla, Ketan Paua, Rajkumar Bhagate

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Transmission dynamics occupy major role in customer perception of the product in both senses of touch and quality of sound. The quantity and quality of sound perceived is more concerned with the whine noise of the gears engaged. Whine noise is tonal in nature and tonal noises cause fatigue and irritation to customers, which in turn affect the quality of the product. Transmission error is the usual suspect for whine noise, which can be caused due to misalignments, tolerances, manufacturing variabilities. In-cabin noise is also more sensitive to the gear design. As the details of the gear tooth design and manufacturing are in microns, anything out of the tolerance zone, either in design or manufacturing, will cause a whine noise. This will also cause high variation in stress and deformation due to change in the load and leads to the fatigue failure of the gears. Hence gear design and development take priority in the transmission development process. This paper aims to study such variability by considering five pairs of helical spur gears and their effect on the transmission error, contact pattern and vibration level on the transmission.

Keywords: Gears, whine noise, manufacturing variability, mount vibration variability.

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models, on two different real-world electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, Machine Learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias.

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Authors: Hanieh Tarbiat Khosrowshahi, Mojtaba Shakeri

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Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) consist of a set of sensor nodes with limited capability. WSNs may suffer from multiple node failures when they are exposed to harsh environments such as military zones or disaster locations and lose connectivity by getting partitioned into disjoint segments. Relay nodes (RNs) are alternatively introduced to restore connectivity. They cost more than sensors as they benefit from mobility, more power and more transmission range, enforcing a minimum number of them to be used. This paper addresses the problem of RN placement in a multiple disjoint network by developing a genetic algorithm (GA). The problem is reintroduced as the Steiner tree problem (which is known to be an NP-hard problem) by the aim of finding the minimum number of Steiner points where RNs are to be placed for restoring connectivity. An upper bound to the number of RNs is first computed to set up the length of initial chromosomes. The GA algorithm then iteratively reduces the number of RNs and determines their location at the same time. Experimental results indicate that the proposed GA is capable of establishing network connectivity using a reasonable number of RNs compared to the best existing work.

Keywords: Connectivity restoration, genetic algorithms, multiple-node failure, relay nodes, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Madiha El Awamie, Catherine Rees

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Natural preservatives have been used as alternatives to traditional chemical preservatives; however, a limited number have been commercially developed and many remain to be investigated as sources of safer and effective antimicrobials. In this study, we have been investigating the antimicrobial activity of an extract of Glycyrrhiza glabra (liquorice) that was provided as a waste material from the production of liquorice flavourings for the food industry, and to investigate if this retained the expected antimicrobial activity so it could be used as a natural preservative. Antibacterial activity of liquorice extract was screened for evidence of growth inhibition against eight species of Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria, including Listeria monocytogenes, Listeria innocua, Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus faecalis and Bacillus subtilis. The Gram-negative bacteria tested include Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli and Salmonella typhimurium but none of these were affected by the extract. In contrast, for all of the Gram-positive bacteria tested, growth was inhibited as monitored using optical density. However parallel studies using viable count indicated that the cells were not killed meaning that the extract was bacteriostatic rather than bacteriocidal. The Minimum Inhibitory Concentration [MIC] and Minimum Bactericidal Concentration [MBC] of the extract was also determined and a concentration of 50 µg ml^-1 was found to have a strong bacteriostatic effect on Gram-positive bacteria. Microscopic analysis indicated that there were changes in cell shape suggesting the cell wall was affected. In addition, the use of a reporter strain of Listeria transformed with the bioluminescence genes luxABCDE indicated that cell energy levels were reduced when treated with either 12.5 or 50 µg ml^-1 of the extract, with the reduction in light output being proportional to the concentration of the extract used. Together these results suggest that the extract is inhibiting the growth of Gram-positive bacteria only by damaging the cell wall and/or membrane.

Keywords: Antibacterial activity, bioluminescence, Glycyrrhiza glabra, natural preservative.

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Authors: Mohsen A. M. El-Bendary, Mostafa A. R. El-Tokhy

Abstract:

This paper presents an efficient burst error spreading tool. Also, it studies a vital issue in wireless communications, which is the transmission of images over wireless networks. IEEE ZigBee 802.15.4 is a short-range communication standard that could be used for small distance multimedia transmissions. In fact, the ZigBee network is a Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN), which needs a strong interleaving mechanism for protection against error bursts. Also, it is low power technology and utilized in the Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) implementation. This paper presents the chaotic interleaving scheme as a data randomization tool for this purpose. This scheme depends on the chaotic Baker map. The mobility effects on the image transmission are studied with different velocity through utilizing the Jakes’ model. A comparison study between the proposed chaotic interleaving scheme and the traditional block and convolutional interleaving schemes for image transmission over a correlated fading channel is presented. The simulation results show the superiority of the proposed chaotic interleaving scheme over the traditional schemes.

Keywords: WPANs, Burst Errors, Mobility, Interleaving Techniques, Fading channels.

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Authors: Mojtaba Valinataj

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Reversible logic as a new favorable design domain can be used for various fields especially creating quantum computers because of its speed and intangible power consumption. However, its susceptibility to a variety of environmental effects may lead to yield the incorrect results. In this paper, because of the importance of multiplication operation in various computing systems, some novel reversible logic array multipliers are proposed with error detection capability by incorporating the parity-preserving gates. The new designs are presented for two main parts of array multipliers, partial product generation and multi-operand addition, by exploiting the new arrangements of existing gates, which results in two signed parity-preserving array multipliers. The experimental results reveal that the best proposed 4×4 multiplier in this paper reaches 12%, 24%, and 26% enhancements in the number of constant inputs, number of required gates, and quantum cost, respectively, compared to previous design. Moreover, the best proposed design is generalized for n×n multipliers with general formulations to estimate the main reversible logic criteria as the functions of the multiplier size.

Keywords: Array multipliers, Baugh-Wooley method, error detection, parity-preserving gates, quantum computers, reversible logic.

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Authors: Adriano Z. Zambom, Preethi Ravikumar

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One of the biggest challenges in nonparametric regression is the curse of dimensionality. Additive models are known to overcome this problem by estimating only the individual additive effects of each covariate. However, if the model is misspecified, the accuracy of the estimator compared to the fully nonparametric one is unknown. In this work the efficiency of completely nonparametric regression estimators such as the Loess is compared to the estimators that assume additivity in several situations, including additive and non-additive regression scenarios. The comparison is done by computing the oracle mean square error of the estimators with regards to the true nonparametric regression function. Then, a backward elimination selection procedure based on the Akaike Information Criteria is proposed, which is computed from either the additive or the nonparametric model. Simulations show that if the additive model is misspecified, the percentage of time it fails to select important variables can be higher than that of the fully nonparametric approach. A dimension reduction step is included when nonparametric estimator cannot be computed due to the curse of dimensionality. Finally, the Boston housing dataset is analyzed using the proposed backward elimination procedure and the selected variables are identified.

Keywords: Additive models, local polynomial regression, residuals, mean square error, variable selection.

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Authors: Hong Son Hoang, Remy Baraille

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This paper addresses the problem of how one can improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non- Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding, especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes. Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.

Keywords: Statistical simulation, canonical form, dynamical system, Markov and non-Markovian processes, data assimilation.

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Authors: Vasco A. P. Cadavez, Fernando C. Monteiro

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The objective of this study was to develop and compare alternative prediction equations of lean meat proportion (LMP) of lamb carcasses. Forty (40) male lambs, 22 of Churra Galega Bragançana Portuguese local breed and 18 of Suffolk breed were used. Lambs were slaughtered, and carcasses weighed approximately 30 min later in order to obtain hot carcass weight (HCW). After cooling at 4º C for 24-h a set of seventeen carcass measurements was recorded. The left side of carcasses was dissected into muscle, subcutaneous fat, inter-muscular fat, bone, and remainder (major blood vessels, ligaments, tendons, and thick connective tissue sheets associated with muscles), and the LMP was evaluated as the dissected muscle percentage. Prediction equations of LMP were developed, and fitting quality was evaluated through the coefficient of determination of estimation (R2 e) and standard error of estimate (SEE). Models validation was performed by k-fold crossvalidation and the coefficient of determination of prediction (R2 p) and standard error of prediction (SEP) were computed. The BT2 measurement was the best single predictor and accounted for 37.8% of the LMP variation with a SEP of 2.30%. The prediction of LMP of lamb carcasses can be based simple models, using as predictors the HCW and one fat thickness measurement.

Keywords: Bootstrap, Carcass, Lambs, Lean meat

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Authors: Shan Ding, Lijia Zhang, Hongming Xu

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this paper presents a novel scheme which is capable of reducing the error rate and improves the transmission performance in the asynchronous cooperative MIMO systems. A case study of image transmission is applied to prove the efficient of scheme. The linear dispersion structure is employed to accommodate the cooperative wireless communication network in the dynamic topology of structure, as well as to achieve higher throughput than conventional space–time codes based on orthogonal designs. The LDPC encoder without girth-4 and the STBC encoder with guard intervals are respectively introduced. The experiment results show that the combined coder of LDPC-STBC with guard intervals can be the good error correcting coders and BER performance in the asynchronous cooperative communication. In the case study of image transmission, the results show that in the transmission process, the image quality which is obtained by applied combined scheme is much better than it which is not applied the scheme in the asynchronous cooperative MIMO systems.

Keywords: Cooperative MIMO, image transmission, lineardispersion codes, Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC)

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Authors: M. Abdeshahian, M. Nabipour, M. Meskarbashee

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To investigate effect of salt stress on Chlorophyll fluorescence four cultivars (fong,star,chamran and kharchia) of wheat (Triticum aestivum) plants subjected to salinity levels ( control,8,12 and 16 dsm-1 ) from one week after emergence to the end of stem elongation under greenhouse condition . results showed that quantum yield of photosystem II from light adopted leaves (ΦPSII), Photochemical quenching (qP) ,quantum yield of dark adopted leaves (fv/fm) and non photochemical quenching (NPq) were affected by salt stress . Salinity levels affected photosynthetic rate. Star and fong cultivars showed minimum and maximum levels of photosynthetic rate in respectively. Minimum photosynthetic rate differences between levels of salinity were shown in Kharchia. Shoot dry matter of all cultivars decreased by increasing salinity levels. Results showed that non photochemical quenching by salinity levels attribute to the decreases in shoot dry matter.

Keywords: salt stress, wheat, chlorophyll fluorescence, photosynthesis , shoot dry matter .

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Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

Abstract:

The recent global financial problem urges government to play role in stimulating the economy due to the fact that private sector has little ability to purchase during the recession. A concerned question is whether the increased government spending crowds out private consumption and whether it helps stimulate the economy. If the government spending policy is effective; the private consumption is expected to increase and can compensate the recent extra government expense. In this study, the government spending is categorized into government consumption spending and government capital spending. The study firstly examines consumer consumption along the line with the demand function in microeconomic theory. Three categories of private consumption are used in the study. Those are food consumption, non food consumption, and services consumption. The dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System of the three categories of the private consumption is estimated using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The estimated model indicates the substituting effects (negative impacts) of the government consumption spending on budget shares of private non food consumption and of the government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption, respectively. Nevertheless the result does not necessarily indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the non food and the food consumption means fallen total private consumption. Microeconomic consumer demand analysis clearly indicates changes in component structure of aggregate expenditure in the economy as a result of the government spending policy. The macroeconomic concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (the government consumption spending and the government capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate for their relationship using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The macroeconomic study found no effect of the government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP. Therefore no crowding out effect of the government spending is found on the private consumption but it is ineffective and even inefficient expenditure as found reducing growth of the GDP in the context of Thailand.

Keywords: government consumption spending, governmentcapital spending, private consumption on food, non food, andservices, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Almost Ideal DemandSystem, substitution effect, complementary effect, consumer demand, aggregate demand

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Authors: Hamed Najafi, Ghasem Nikjou

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Nowadays, there is an increasing attention to the resources scarcity issues. Because of failure in present patterns in the field of the allocation of exhaustible resources between generations and the challenges related to economic justice supply, it is supposed, to present a pattern from the Islamic perspective in this essay. By using content analysis of religious texts, we conclude that governments should remove the gap which is exists between the per capita income of the poor and their minimum consumption (necessary consumption). In order to preserve the exhaustible resources for poor people) not for all), between all generations, government should invest exhaustible resources on endless resources according to Hartwick’s criteria and should spend these benefits for poor people. But, if benefits did not cover the gap between minimum consumption and per capita income of poor levels in one generation, in this case, the government is responsible for covering this gap through the direct consumption of exhaustible resources. For an exact answer to this question, ‘how much of exhaustible resources should expense to maintain justice between generations?’ The theoretical and mathematical modeling has been used and proper function has been provided. The consumption pattern is presented for economic policy makers in Muslim countries, and non-Muslim even, it can be useful.

Keywords: Exhaustible resources, Islamic justice, intergenerational justice, distribution of resources, Hartwick Criteria.

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Authors: Preetam Kumar

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The number of users supported in a DS-CDMA cellular system is typically less than spreading factor (N), and the system is said to be underloaded. Overloading is a technique to accommodate more number of users than the spreading factor N. In O/O overloading scheme, the first set is assigned to the N synchronous users and the second set is assigned to the additional synchronous users. An iterative multistage soft decision interference cancellation (SDIC) receiver is used to remove high level of interference between the two sets. Performance is evaluated in terms of the maximum number acceptable users so that the system performance is degraded slightly compared to the single user performance at a specified BER. In this paper, the capacity of CDMA based O/O overloading scheme is evaluated with SDIC receiver. It is observed that O/O scheme using orthogonal Gold codes provides 25% channel overloading (N=64) for synchronous DS-CDMA system on an AWGN channel in the uplink at a BER of 1e-5.For a Rayleigh faded channel, the critical capacity is 40% at a BER of 5e-5 assuming synchronous users. But in practical systems, perfect chip timing is very difficult to maintain in the uplink.. We have shown that the overloading performance reduces to 11% for a timing synchronization error of 0.02Tc for a BER of 1e-5.

Keywords: DS-CDMA, Interference Cancellation, MultiuserDetection, Orthogonal codes, Overloading.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Urvashi Malhotra, E. Ardil

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There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Faults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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Authors: Wan-Yu Liu, Jiunn-Cheng Lin, Chun-Cheng Lin

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Green Forestation Plan (GFP) was expected to promote the reforestation of plains totaling 60,000 has within the first 8 years. Annual subsidies were budgeted at $120,000 per ha, and $2.4 million for 20 years. In this research we have surveyed landlords- opinions toward the GFP in an attempt to understand landlords- incentives for participating in the GFP and their levels of concern and agreement toward the policy design. Based our analysis of landlords- opinions on the policy design, we expect to derive appropriate complementary measures, establish effective promotional schemes, and raise the policy effectiveness of the GFP. According to the results of this research, there was still a relatively high proportion of population who were not aware of GFP; more than 50% of landlords were neutral or willing to participate given high reforestation subsidies; approximately 30% of landlords were unwilling to participate. In terms of the designs of GFP, more than 50% of respondents were concerned and agreed with the policy design. In terms of the period of this policy, 52.7% of respondents indicated that it should be shortened to 15 years or lower. In terms of the amount of the subsidy, 41.7% of respondents showed that it should be raised to approximately $250,000/ha. In terms of land area restrictions, 88.0% of respondents believed that the minimum should be lowered to 0.4 ha. More than 70% of respondents owned less than 0.4 has of land, and since they do not own enough land to be eligible for the program, more than 80% of landlords wished to lower the minimum requirements of land area. In addition, 59.3% of respondents were reluctant to participate in reforestation because their lands were too small to be eligible; 15.0% of respondents were reluctant because the duration was too long. Responses to the question about “how the policy can be adjusted to provide incentives for landlords- participation" revealed that almost 40% of respondents desired higher subsidies. Some policy suggestions are provided as follows: (1) many landlords are still unaware of the GFP so the government should enhance the promotion of the policy; (2) many landlords are unwilling to participate in GFP mainly because they do not own enough lands to be eligible, hence the government should consider adjusting its requirements for minimum agricultural land area; (3) for subsequent promotions on GFP, the government may consider targeting on the landlords with high income and high level of education; (4) because the subsidy of this policy alone provides limited help to landlords, the government should help the landlords to explore other revenue possibilities from afforestation in addition to the existing subsidies and raise the participation incentives.

Keywords: Green Forestation Plan (GFP), Landlord, Willingness to Participate.

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Authors: Andhe Dharani, P. S. Satyanarayana, Andhe Pallavi

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Considering payload, reliability, security and operational lifetime as major constraints in transmission of images we put forward in this paper a steganographic technique implemented at the physical layer. We suggest transmission of Halftoned images (payload constraint) in wireless sensor networks to reduce the amount of transmitted data. For low power and interference limited applications Turbo codes provide suitable reliability. Ensuring security is one of the highest priorities in many sensor networks. The Turbo Code structure apart from providing forward error correction can be utilized to provide for encryption. We first consider the Halftoned image and then the method of embedding a block of data (called secret) in this Halftoned image during the turbo encoding process is presented. The small modifications required at the turbo decoder end to extract the embedded data are presented next. The implementation complexity and the degradation of the BER (bit error rate) in the Turbo based stego system are analyzed. Using some of the entropy based crypt analytic techniques we show that the strength of our Turbo based stego system approaches that found in the OTPs (one time pad).

Keywords: Halftoning, Turbo codes, security, operationallifetime, Turbo based stego system.

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Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

Abstract:

This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operated as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machines operated as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: Residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

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The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: Abhijit Mitra

Abstract:

This paper proposes an efficient finite precision block floating point (BFP) treatment to the fixed coefficient finite impulse response (FIR) digital filter. The treatment includes effective implementation of all the three forms of the conventional FIR filters, namely, direct form, cascaded and par- allel, and a roundoff error analysis of them in the BFP format. An effective block formatting algorithm together with an adaptive scaling factor is pro- posed to make the realizations more simple from hardware view point. To this end, a generic relation between the tap weight vector length and the input block length is deduced. The implementation scheme also emphasises on a simple block exponent update technique to prevent overflow even during the block to block transition phase. The roundoff noise is also investigated along the analogous lines, taking into consideration these implementational issues. The simulation results show that the BFP roundoff errors depend on the sig- nal level almost in the same way as floating point roundoff noise, resulting in approximately constant signal to noise ratio over a relatively large dynamic range.

Keywords: Finite impulse response digital filters, Cascade structure, Parallel structure, Block floating point arithmetic, Roundoff error.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Roma Jaswal, Sandeep Khimta, Shailendra Singh

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As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done in time especially for the critical applications. As, Neural networks, which have been already applied in software engineering applications to build reliability growth models predict the gross change or reusability metrics. Neural networks are non-linear sophisticated modeling techniques that are able to model complex functions. Neural network techniques are used when exact nature of input and outputs is not known. A key feature is that they learn the relationship between input and output through training. In this present work, various Neural Network Based techniques are explored and comparative analysis is performed for the prediction of level of need of maintenance by predicting level severity of faults present in NASA-s public domain defect dataset. The comparison of different algorithms is made on the basis of Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and Accuracy Values. It is concluded that Generalized Regression Networks is the best algorithm for classification of the software components into different level of severity of impact of the faults. The algorithm can be used to develop model that can be used for identifying modules that are heavily affected by the faults.

Keywords: Neural Network, Software faults, Software Metric.

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Authors: Jian Du, Shui Hong Hong, Lu Meng, Qing Wei Meng

Abstract:

This work addresses the problem of optimizing completely batch water-using network with multiple contaminants where the flow change caused by mass transfer is taken into consideration for the first time. A mathematical technique for optimizing water-using network is proposed based on source-tank-sink superstructure. The task is to obtain the freshwater usage, recycle assignments among water-using units, wastewater discharge and a steady water-using network configuration by following steps. Firstly, operating sequences of water-using units are determined by time constraints. Next, superstructure is simplified by eliminating the reuse and recycle from water-using units with maximum concentration of key contaminants. Then, the non-linear programming model is solved by GAMS (General Algebra Model System) for minimum freshwater usage, maximum water recycle and minimum wastewater discharge. Finally, numbers of operating periods are calculated to acquire the steady network configuration. A case study is solved to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Completely batch process, flow change, multiple contaminants, water-using network.

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Authors: Ahmed N. Shmroukh, Ahmed Hamza H. Ali, Ali K. Abel-Rahman

Abstract:

This study is experimentally targeting to develop effective in heat and mass transfer processes for the adsorbate to obtain applicable adsorption capacity data. This is done by using fin and tube heat exchanger core and the adsorbate is adhesive over its surface and located as the core of the adsorber. The pairs are activated carbon powder/R-134a, activated carbon powder/R-407c, activated carbon powder/R-507A, activated carbon granules/R-507A, activated carbon granules/R-407c and activated carbon granules/R-134a, at different adsorption temperatures of 25, 30, 35 and 50°C. The following is results is obtained: at adsorption temperature of 25 °C the maximum adsorption capacity is found to be 0.8352kg/kg for activated carbon powder with R-134a and the minimum adsorption capacity found to be 0.1583kg/kg for activated carbon granules with R-407c. While, at adsorption temperature of 50°C the maximum adsorption capacity is found to be 0.3207kg/kg for activated carbon powder with R-134a and the minimum adsorption capacity found to be 0.0609kg/kg for activated carbon granules with R-407c. Therefore, the activated carbon powder/R-134a pair is highly recommended to be used as adsorption refrigeration working pair because of its higher maximum adsorption capacity than the other tested pairs, to produce a compact, efficient and reliable for long life performance adsorption refrigeration system.

Keywords: Adsorption, Adsorbent/Adsorbate Pairs, Adsorption Capacity, Refrigeration.

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Authors: Yao-Tang Chang, Chuen-Ching Wang, Shu-Han Hu

Abstract:

In order to implement flexibility as well as survivable capacities over passive optical network (PON), a new automatic random fault-recovery mechanism with array-waveguide-grating based (AWG-based) optical switch (OSW) is presented. Firstly, wavelength-division-multiplexing and optical code-division multiple-access (WDM/OCDMA) scheme are configured to meet the various geographical locations requirement between optical network unit (ONU) and optical line terminal (OLT). The AWG-base optical switch is designed and viewed as central star-mesh topology to prohibit/decrease the duplicated redundant elements such as fiber and transceiver as well. Hence, by simple monitoring and routing switch algorithm, random fault-recovery capacity is achieved over bi-directional (up/downstream) WDM/OCDMA scheme. When error of distribution fiber (DF) takes place or bit-error-rate (BER) is higher than 10-9 requirement, the primary/slave AWG-based OSW are adjusted and controlled dynamically to restore the affected ONU groups via the other working DFs immediately.

Keywords: Random fault recovery mechanism, Array-waveguide-grating based optical switch (AWG- based OSW), wavelength-division-multiplexing and optical code-divisionmultiple-access (WDM/ OCDMA)

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Authors: Vijay Kumar, Jagdev Singh, Yaduvir Singh, Sanjay Sood

Abstract:

In a practical power system, the power plants are not located at the same distance from the center of loads and their fuel costs are different. Also, under normal operating conditions, the generation capacity is more than the total load demand and losses. Thus, there are many options for scheduling generation. In an interconnected power system, the objective is to find the real and reactive power scheduling of each power plant in such a way as to minimize the operating cost. This means that the generator’s real and reactive powers are allowed to vary within certain limits so as to meet a particular load demand with minimum fuel cost. This is called optimal power flow problem. In this paper, Economic Load Dispatch (ELD) of real power generation is considered. Economic Load Dispatch (ELD) is the scheduling of generators to minimize total operating cost of generator units subjected to equality constraint of power balance within the minimum and maximum operating limits of the generating units. In this paper, genetic algorithms are considered. ELD solutions are found by solving the conventional load flow equations while at the same time minimizing the fuel costs.

Keywords: ELD, Equality constraints, Genetic algorithms, Strings.

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Authors: Thomas O. Olwal, Michael A. van Wyk, Barend J. van Wyk

Abstract:

In this paper we present a soft timing phase estimation (STPE) method for wireless mobile receivers operating in low signal to noise ratios (SNRs). Discrete Polyphase Matched (DPM) filters, a Log-maximum a posterior probability (MAP) and/or a Soft-output Viterbi algorithm (SOVA) are combined to derive a new timing recovery (TR) scheme. We apply this scheme to wireless cellular communication system model that comprises of a raised cosine filter (RCF), a bit-interleaved turbo-coded multi-level modulation (BITMM) scheme and the channel is assumed to be memory-less. Furthermore, no clock signals are transmitted to the receiver contrary to the classical data aided (DA) models. This new model ensures that both the bandwidth and power of the communication system is conserved. However, the computational complexity of ideal turbo synchronization is increased by 50%. Several simulation tests on bit error rate (BER) and block error rate (BLER) versus low SNR reveal that the proposed iterative soft timing recovery (ISTR) scheme outperforms the conventional schemes.

Keywords: discrete polyphase matched filters, maximum likelihood estimators, soft timing phase estimation, wireless mobile systems.

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Authors: Shrikrishan Yadav, Akhilesh Saini, Krishna Chandra Roy

Abstract:

The electromagnetic spectrum is a natural resource and hence well-organized usage of the limited natural resources is the necessities for better communication. The present static frequency allocation schemes cannot accommodate demands of the rapidly increasing number of higher data rate services. Therefore, dynamic usage of the spectrum must be distinguished from the static usage to increase the availability of frequency spectrum. Cognitive radio is not a single piece of apparatus but it is a technology that can incorporate components spread across a network. It offers great promise for improving system efficiency, spectrum utilization, more effective applications, reduction in interference and reduced complexity of usage for users. Cognitive radio is aware of its environmental, internal state, and location, and autonomously adjusts its operations to achieve designed objectives. It first senses its spectral environment over a wide frequency band, and then adapts the parameters to maximize spectrum efficiency with high performance. This paper only focuses on the analysis of Bit-Error-Rate in cognitive radio by using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm. It is theoretically as well as practically analyzed and interpreted in the sense of advantages and drawbacks and how BER affects the efficiency and performance of the communication system.

Keywords: BER, Cognitive Radio, Environmental Parameters, PSO, Radio spectrum, Transmission Parameters

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