Search results for: mean square error

Authors: Naji Ali Albakay, Abdulrahman Alothaim, Isa Barshushi

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The most common quadrature amplitude modulator (QAM) applies two Mach-Zehnder Modulators (MZM) and one phase shifter to generate high order modulation format. The bias of MZM changes over time due to temperature, vibration, and aging factors. The change in the biasing causes distortion to the generated QAM signal which leads to deterioration of bit error rate (BER) performance. Therefore, it is critical to be able to lock MZM’s Q point to the required operating point for good performance. We propose a technique for automatic bias control (ABC) of QAM transmitter using BER measurements and gradient descent optimization algorithm. The proposed technique is attractive because it uses the pertinent metric, BER, which compensates for bias drifting independently from other system variations such as laser source output power. The proposed scheme performance and its operating principles are simulated using OptiSystem simulation software for 4-QAM and 16-QAM transmitters.

Keywords: Automatic bias control, optical fiber communication, optical modulation, optical devices.

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Authors: S. Cherif, S. Marcos, M. Jaidane

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In this paper the behavior of the decision feedback equalizers (DFEs) adapted by the decision-directed or the constant modulus blind algorithms is presented. An analysis of the error surface of the corresponding criterion cost functions is first developed. With the intention of avoiding the ill-convergence of the algorithm, the paper proposes to modify the shape of the cost function error surface by using a soft decision instead of the hard one. This was shown to reduce the influence of false decisions and to smooth the undesirable minima. Modified algorithms using the soft decision during a pseudo-training phase with an automatic switch to the properly tracking phase are then derived. Computer simulations show that these modified algorithms present better ability to avoid local minima than conventional ones.

Keywords: Blind DFEs, decision-directed algorithm, constant modulus algorithm, cost function analysis, convergence analysis, soft decision.

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Authors: Pornthep Navakitkanok, Ammarin Pimnoo, Seksan Jaturat

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THEOS is the first earth observation spacecraft of Thailand which was launched on the 1st October 2008 and is currently operated by GISTDA. The transfer phase has been performed by Astrium Flight Dynamics team leading to a hand over to GISTDA teams starting mid-October 2008. The THEOS spacecraft-s orbit is LEO and has the same repetitivity (14+5/26) as the SPOT spacecraft, i.e. the same altitude of 822 km but it has a different mean local solar time (LST). Ground track maintenance manoeuvres are performed to maintain the ground track within a predefined control band around the reference ground track and the band is ±40 km for THEOS spacecraft. This paper presents the first ground track maintenance manoeuvre of THEOS spacecraft and the detailed results. In addition, it also includes one and a half year of operation as seen by GISTDA operators. It finally describes the foreseenable activities for the next orbit control manoeuvre (OCM) preparation.

Keywords: Orbit Control Manoeuvre, Ground Track Error, Local Solar Time Error, LEO, THEOS

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Authors: Kazeem A. Osuolale, Waheed B. Yahya, Babatunde L. Adeleke

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Latin hypercube designs (LHDs) have been applied in many computer experiments among the space-filling designs found in the literature. A LHD can be randomly generated but a randomly chosen LHD may have bad properties and thus act poorly in estimation and prediction. There is a connection between Latin squares and orthogonal arrays (OAs). A Latin square of order s involves an arrangement of s symbols in s rows and s columns, such that every symbol occurs once in each row and once in each column and this exists for every non-negative integer s. In this paper, a computer program was written to construct orthogonal array-based Latin hypercube designs (OA-LHDs). Orthogonal arrays (OAs) were constructed from Latin square of order s and the OAs constructed were afterward used to construct the desired Latin hypercube designs for three input variables for use in computer experiments. The LHDs constructed have better space-filling properties and they can be used in computer experiments that involve only three input factors. MATLAB 2012a computer package (www.mathworks.com/) was used for the development of the program that constructs the designs.

Keywords: Computer Experiments, Latin Squares, Latin Hypercube Designs, Orthogonal Array, Space-filling Designs.

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Authors: M. Yilmaz, I. Yilmaz, M. Uysal

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The Earth system generates different phenomena that are observable at the surface of the Earth such as mass deformations and displacements leading to plate tectonics, earthquakes, and volcanism. The dynamic processes associated with the interior, surface, and atmosphere of the Earth affect the three pillars of geodesy: shape of the Earth, its gravity field, and its rotation. Geodesy establishes a characteristic structure in order to define, monitor, and predict of the whole Earth system. The traditional and new instruments, observables, and techniques in geodesy are related to the gravity field. Therefore, the geodesy monitors the gravity field and its temporal variability in order to transform the geodetic observations made on the physical surface of the Earth into the geometrical surface in which positions are mathematically defined. In this paper, the main components of the gravity field modeling, (Free-air and Bouguer) gravity anomalies are calculated via recent global models (EGM2008, EIGEN6C4, and GECO) over a selected study area. The model-based gravity anomalies are compared with the corresponding terrestrial gravity data in terms of standard deviation (SD) and root mean square error (RMSE) for determining the best fit global model in the study area at a regional scale in Turkey. The least SD (13.63 mGal) and RMSE (15.71 mGal) were obtained by EGM2008 for the Free-air gravity anomaly residuals. For the Bouguer gravity anomaly residuals, EIGEN6C4 provides the least SD (8.05 mGal) and RMSE (8.12 mGal). The results indicated that EIGEN6C4 can be a useful tool for modeling the gravity field of the Earth over the study area.

Keywords: Free-air gravity anomaly, Bouguer gravity anomaly, global model, land gravity.

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Authors: Ziad Abdeldayem, Jakub Markiewicz, Kunal Kansara, Laura Edwards

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Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) is one of the main technologies for generating high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs). DTMs are crucial to several applications, such as topographic mapping, flood zone delineation, geographic information systems (GIS), hydrological modelling, spatial analysis, etc. Laser scanning system generates irregularly spaced three-dimensional cloud of points. Raw ALS data are mainly ground points (that represent the bare earth) and non-ground points (that represent buildings, trees, cars, etc.). Removing all the non-ground points from the raw data is referred to as filtering. Filtering heavily forested areas is considered a difficult and challenging task as the canopy stops laser pulses from reaching the terrain surface. This research presents an approach for removing non-ground points from raw ALS data in densely forested areas. Smoothing splines are exploited to interpolate and fit the noisy ALS data. The presented filter utilizes a weight function to allocate weights for each point of the data. Furthermore, unlike most of the methods, the presented filtering algorithm is designed to be automatic. Three different forested areas in the United Kingdom are used to assess the performance of the algorithm. The results show that the generated DTMs from the filtered data are accurate (when compared against reference terrain data) and the performance of the method is stable for all the heavily forested data samples. The average root mean square error (RMSE) value is 0.35 m.

Keywords: Airborne laser scanning, digital terrain models, filtering, forested areas.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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Authors: Hussain Syed Asad, Richard Kwok Kit Yuen, Gongsheng Huang

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Real-time optimization has been considered an effective approach for improving energy efficient operation of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. In model-based real-time optimization, model mismatches cannot be avoided. When model mismatches are significant, the performance of the real-time optimization will be impaired and hence the expected energy saving will be reduced. In this paper, the model mismatches for chiller plant on real-time optimization are considered. In the real-time optimization of the chiller plant, simplified semi-physical or grey box model of chiller is always used, which should be identified using available operation data. To overcome the model mismatches associated with the chiller model, hybrid Genetic Algorithms (HGAs) method is used for online real-time training of the chiller model. HGAs combines Genetic Algorithms (GAs) method (for global search) and traditional optimization method (i.e. faster and more efficient for local search) to avoid conventional hit and trial process of GAs. The identification of model parameters is synthesized as an optimization problem; and the objective function is the Least Square Error between the output from the model and the actual output from the chiller plant. A case study is used to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method. It has been shown that the proposed approach is able to provide reliability in decision making, enhance the robustness of the real-time optimization strategy and improve on energy performance.

Keywords: Energy performance, hybrid adaptive modeling, hybrid genetic algorithms, real-time optimization, heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning.

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Authors: Sajad Farokhi, Siti Mariyam Shamsuddin, Jan Flusser, Usman Ullah Sheikh

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Although face recognition seems as an easy task for human, automatic face recognition is a much more challenging task due to variations in time, illumination and pose. In this paper, the influence of time-lapse on visible and thermal images is examined. Orthogonal moment invariants are used as a feature extractor to analyze the effect of time-lapse on thermal and visible images and the results are compared with conventional Principal Component Analysis (PCA). A new triangle square ratio criterion is employed instead of Euclidean distance to enhance the performance of nearest neighbor classifier. The results of this study indicate that the ideal feature vectors can be represented with high discrimination power due to the global characteristic of orthogonal moment invariants. Moreover, the effect of time-lapse has been decreasing and enhancing the accuracy of face recognition considerably in comparison with PCA. Furthermore, our experimental results based on moment invariant and triangle square ratio criterion show that the proposed approach achieves on average 13.6% higher in recognition rate than PCA.

Keywords: Infrared Face recognition, Time-lapse, Zernike moment invariants

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

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We present a family of data-reusing and affine projection algorithms. For identification of a noisy linear finite impulse response channel, a partial knowledge of a channel, especially noise, can be used to improve the performance of the adaptive filter. Motivated by this fact, the proposed scheme incorporates an estimate of a knowledge of noise. A constraint, called the adaptive noise constraint, estimates an unknown information of noise. By imposing this constraint on a cost function of data-reusing and affine projection algorithms, a cost function based on the adaptive noise constraint and Lagrange multiplier is defined. Minimizing the new cost function leads to the adaptive noise constrained (ANC) data-reusing and affine projection algorithms. Experimental results comparing the proposed schemes to standard data-reusing and affine projection algorithms clearly indicate their superior performance.

Keywords: Data-reusing, affine projection algorithm, error constraint, system identification.

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Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

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Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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Authors: Atnaf Tiruneh Mulugeta, Mohammed Ali Hussein, Zelleke Habtamu

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Thirty six genotypes (8 parents and 28 F1 diallel crosses) were grown in randomized complete block design during 2006 at Mandura, North western Ethiopia. The experiment was executed to study the inheritance of two primary yield component traits: number of seeds per pod and 1000 seed weight. Statistical significant difference was observed between genotypes, parents, and crosses for these traits. The mean square due to GCA was significant for the two traits. However, SCA mean square was significant only for number of seeds per pod. Thus both additive and non-additive types of gene actions were important in the inheritance of number of seeds per pod. Significant b1 component was obtained for this trait. The b2 and b3 components, however, were not significant, suggesting the absence of gene asymmetry. From Wr/Vr graph, inheritance of seeds per pod was governed by partial dominance with additive gene action.

Keywords: Diallel crosses, General combining ability, Phaseolus vulgaris L., Specific combining ability

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Authors: Mamta Garg

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While compressing text files is useful, compressing still image files is almost a necessity. A typical image takes up much more storage than a typical text message and without compression images would be extremely clumsy to store and distribute. The amount of information required to store pictures on modern computers is quite large in relation to the amount of bandwidth commonly available to transmit them over the Internet and applications. Image compression addresses the problem of reducing the amount of data required to represent a digital image. Performance of any image compression method can be evaluated by measuring the root-mean-square-error & peak signal to noise ratio. The method of image compression that will be analyzed in this paper is based on the lossy JPEG image compression technique, the most popular compression technique for color images. JPEG compression is able to greatly reduce file size with minimal image degradation by throwing away the least “important" information. In JPEG, both color components are downsampled simultaneously, but in this paper we will compare the results when the compression is done by downsampling the single chroma part. In this paper we will demonstrate more compression ratio is achieved when the chrominance blue is downsampled as compared to downsampling the chrominance red in JPEG compression. But the peak signal to noise ratio is more when the chrominance red is downsampled as compared to downsampling the chrominance blue in JPEG compression. In particular we will use the hats.jpg as a demonstration of JPEG compression using low pass filter and demonstrate that the image is compressed with barely any visual differences with both methods.

Keywords: JPEG, Discrete Cosine Transform, Quantization, Color Space Conversion, Image Compression, Peak Signal to Noise Ratio & Compression Ratio.

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

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This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: Mohammad J. Rezai, Fereshteh Davarpanah

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Producing a text in a language which is not one’s mother tongue can be a demanding task for language learners. Examining lexical errors committed by EFL learners is a challenging area of investigation which can shed light on the process of second language acquisition. Despite the considerable number of investigations into grammatical errors, few studies have tackled formal and semantic errors of lexis committed by EFL learners. The current study aimed at examining Persian learners’ formal and semantic errors of lexis in English. To this end, 60 students at three different proficiency levels were asked to write on 10 different topics in 10 separate sessions. Finally, 600 essays written by Persian EFL learners were collected, acting as the corpus of the study. An error taxonomy comprising formal and semantic errors was selected to analyze the corpus. The formal category covered misselection and misformation errors, while the semantic errors were classified into lexical, collocational and lexicogrammatical categories. Each category was further classified into subcategories depending on the identified errors. The results showed that there were 2583 errors in the corpus of 9600 words, among which, 2030 formal errors and 553 semantic errors were identified. The most frequent errors in the corpus included formal error commitment (78.6%), which were more prevalent at the advanced level (42.4%). The semantic errors (21.4%) were more frequent at the low intermediate level (40.5%). Among formal errors of lexis, the highest number of errors was devoted to misformation errors (98%), while misselection errors constituted 2% of the errors. Additionally, no significant differences were observed among the three semantic error subcategories, namely collocational, lexical choice and lexicogrammatical. The results of the study can shed light on the challenges faced by EFL learners in the second language acquisition process.

Keywords: Collocational errors, lexical errors, Persian EFL learners, semantic errors.

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Authors: Ali Gholami

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In this research the Preparation of Land use map of scanner LISS III satellite data, belonging to the IRS in the Aghche region in Isfahan province, is studied carefully. For this purpose, the IRS satellite images of August 2008 and various land preparation uses in region including rangelands, irrigation farming, dry farming, gardens and urban areas were separated and identified. Therefore, the GPS and Erdas Imaging software were used and three methods of Maximum Likelihood, Mahalanobis Distance and Minimum Distance were analyzed. In each of these methods, matrix error and Kappa index were calculated and accuracy of each method, based on percentages: 53.13, 56.64 and 48.44, were obtained respectively. Considering the low accuracy of these methods in separation of land preparation use, the visual interpretation of the map was used. Finally, regional visits of 150 points were noted at random and no error was observed. It shows that the map prepared by visual interpretation is in high accuracy. Although the probable errors due to visual interpretation and geometric correction might happen but the desired accuracy of the map which is more than 85 percent is reliable.

Keywords: Land use map, Aghche Region, Erdas Imagine, satellite images

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Authors: Fang Ye, Han Yu, Yibing Li

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Radio interference is one of the major concerns in using the global positioning system (GPS) for civilian and military applications. Interference signals are produced not only through all electronic systems but also illegal jammers. Among different types of interferences, continuous wave (CW) interference has strong adverse impacts on the quality of the received signal. In this paper, we make more detailed analysis for CW interference effects on GPS signal quality. Based on the C/A code spectrum lines, the influence of CW interference on the acquisition performance of GPS receivers is further analysed. This influence is supported by simulation results using GPS software receiver. As the most important user parameter of GPS receivers, the mathematical expression of bit error probability is also derived in the presence of CW interference, and the expression is consistent with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The research on CW interference provides some theoretical gist and new thoughts on monitoring the radio noise environment and improving the anti-jamming ability of GPS receivers.

Keywords: GPS, CW interference, acquisition performance, bit error probability, Monte Carlo.

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Authors: Nasri M., Soleimani A.

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Since water resources of desert Naein City are very limited, a approach which saves water resources and meanwhile meets the needs of the greenspace for water is to use city-s sewage wastewater. Proper treatment of Naein-s sewage up to the standards required for green space uses may solve some of the problems of green space development of the city. The present paper closely examines available statistics and information associated with city-s sewage system, and determines complementary stages of sewage treatment facilities of the city. In the present paper, population, per capita water use, and required discharge for various greenspace pieces including different plants are calculated. Moreover, in order to facilitate the application of water resources, a Crude water distribution network apart from drinking water distribution network is designed, and a plan for mixing municipal wells- water with sewage wastewater in proposed mixing tanks is suggested. Hence, following greenspace irrigation reform and complementary plan, per capita greenspace of the city will be increased from current amount of 13.2 square meters to 32 square meters.

Keywords: Sewage Treatment Facility, Wastewater, Greenspace, Distribution Network, Naein City

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Authors: Prathuang Usaborisut, Dithaporn Thungsotanon

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Soil compaction induced by a tractor towing trailer becomes a major problem associated to sugarcane productivity. Soil beneath the tractor’s tire is not only under compressing stress but also shearing stress. Therefore, in order to help to understand such effects on soil, this research aimed to determine stress state in soil and predict compaction of soil under a tractive tire. The octahedral stress ratios under the tires were higher than one and much higher under higher draft forces. Moreover, the ratio was increasing with increase of number of tire’s passage. Soil compaction model was developed using data acquired from triaxial tests. The model was then used to predict soil bulk density under tractive tire. The maximum error was about 4% at 15 cm depth under lower draft force and tended to increase with depth and draft force. At depth of 30 cm and under higher draft force, the maximum error was about 16%.

Keywords: Draft force, soil compaction model, stress state, tractive tire.

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Authors: Appanah Rao Appadu, Muhammad Zaid Dauhoo

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In this paper, we have combined some spatial derivatives with the optimised time derivative proposed by Tam and Webb in order to approximate the linear advection equation which is given by = 0. Ôêé Ôêé + Ôêé Ôêé x f t u These spatial derivatives are as follows: a standard 7-point 6 th -order central difference scheme (ST7), a standard 9-point 8 th -order central difference scheme (ST9) and optimised schemes designed by Tam and Webb, Lockard et al., Zingg et al., Zhuang and Chen, Bogey and Bailly. Thus, these seven different spatial derivatives have been coupled with the optimised time derivative to obtain seven different finite-difference schemes to approximate the linear advection equation. We have analysed the variation of the modified wavenumber and group velocity, both with respect to the exact wavenumber for each spatial derivative. The problems considered are the 1-D propagation of a Boxcar function, propagation of an initial disturbance consisting of a sine and Gaussian function and the propagation of a Gaussian profile. It is known that the choice of the cfl number affects the quality of results in terms of dissipation and dispersion characteristics. Based on the numerical experiments solved and numerical methods used to approximate the linear advection equation, it is observed in this work, that the quality of results is dependent on the choice of the cfl number, even for optimised numerical methods. The errors from the numerical results have been quantified into dispersion and dissipation using a technique devised by Takacs. Also, the quantity, Exponential Error for Low Dispersion and Low Dissipation, eeldld has been computed from the numerical results. Moreover, based on this work, it has been found that when the quantity, eeldld can be used as a measure of the total error. In particular, the total error is a minimum when the eeldld is a minimum.

Keywords: Optimised time derivative, dissipation, dispersion, cfl number, Nomenclature: k : time step, h : spatial step, β :advection velocity, r: cfl/Courant number, hkrβ= , w =θ, h : exact wave number, n :time level, RPE : Relative phase error per unit time step, AFM :modulus of amplification factor

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Authors: J. Tonkonogij, A. Pedišius, A. Stankevičius

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The new semi-experimental method for simulation of the turbine flow meters rotation in the transitional flow has been developed. The method is based on the experimentally established exponential low of changing of dimensionless relative turbine gas meter rotation frequency and meter inertia time constant. For experimental evaluation of the meter time constant special facility has been developed. The facility ensures instant switching of turbine meter under test from one channel to the other channel with different flow rate and measuring the meter response. The developed method can be used for evaluation and predication of the turbine meters response and dynamic error in the transitional flow with any arbitrary law of flow rate changing. The examples of the method application are presented.

Keywords: Dynamic error, pulsing flow, numerical simulation, response, turbine gas meters.

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Authors: Ehigiamusoe, Uyi Kizito

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The paper examines the impact of money market on economic growth in Nigeria using data for the period 1980-2012. Econometrics techniques such as Ordinary Least Squares Method, Johanson’s Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model were used to examine both the long-run and short-run relationship. Evidence from the study suggest that though a long-run relationship exists between money market and economic growth, but the present state of the Nigerian money market is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. The link between the money market and the real sector of the economy remains very weak. This implies that the market is not yet developed enough to produce the needed growth that will propel the Nigerian economy because of several challenges. It was therefore recommended that government should create the appropriate macroeconomic policies, legal framework and sustain the present reforms with a view to developing the market so as to promote productive activities, investments, and ultimately economic growth.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Investments, Money Market, Money Market Challenges, Money Market Instruments.

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Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab

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Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.

Keywords: Climate change, coastal vulnerability index, global warming, sea level rise.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: S. K. Fasogbon

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Chaotic system may lead to instability, extreme sensitivity and performance reduction in control systems. It is therefore important to understand the causes of such undesirable characteristics in control system especially in the automobile fuel gauges. This is because without accurate fuel gauges in automobile systems, it will be difficult if not impossible to embark on a journey whether during odd hours of the day or where fuel is difficult to obtain. To this end, this work studied the impacts of fuel tank rust and faulty component of fuel gauge system (voltage stabilizer) on the chaotic characteristics of fuel gauges. The results obtained were analyzed using Graph iSOFT package. Over the range of experiments conducted, the results obtained showed that rust effect of the fuel tank would alter the flow density, consequently the fluid pressure and ultimately the flow velocity of the fuel. The responses of the fuel gauge pointer to the faulty voltage stabilizer were erratic causing noticeable instability of gauge measurands indicated. The experiment also showed that the fuel gauge performed optimally by indicating the highest degree of accuracy when combined the effect of rust free tank and non-faulty voltage stabilizer conditions (± 6.75% measurand error) as compared to only the rust free tank situation (± 15% measurand error) and only the non-faulty voltage stabilizer condition (± 40% measurand error). The study concludes that both the fuel tank rust and the faulty voltage stabilizer gauge component have a significant effect on the sensitivity of fuel gauge and its accuracy ultimately. Also, by the reason of literature, our findings can also be said to be valid for all other fluid meters and gauges applicable in plant machineries and most hydraulic systems.

Keywords: Chaotic system, degree of accuracy, measurand, sensitivity of fuel gauge.

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Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao

Abstract:

Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.

Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting

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Authors: Baljit Singh Khehra, Amar Partap Singh Pharwaha

Abstract:

Clusters of Microcalcifications (MCCs) are most frequent symptoms of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) recognized by mammography. Least-Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) is a variant of the standard SVM. In the paper, LS-SVM is proposed as a classifier for classifying MCCs as benign or malignant based on relevant extracted features from enhanced mammogram. To establish the credibility of LS-SVM classifier for classifying MCCs, a comparative evaluation of the relative performance of LS-SVM classifier for different kernel functions is made. For comparative evaluation, confusion matrix and ROC analysis are used. Experiments are performed on data extracted from mammogram images of DDSM database. A total of 380 suspicious areas are collected, which contain 235 malignant and 145 benign samples, from mammogram images of DDSM database. A set of 50 features is calculated for each suspicious area. After this, an optimal subset of 23 most suitable features is selected from 50 features by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The results of proposed study are quite promising.

Keywords: Clusters of Microcalcifications, Ductal Carcinoma in Situ, Least-Square Support Vector Machine, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: M. M. Agheli, M. J. Nategh

Abstract:

Hexapod Machine Tool (HMT) is a parallel robot mostly based on Stewart platform. Identification of kinematic parameters of HMT is an important step of calibration procedure. In this paper an algorithm is presented for identifying the kinematic parameters of HMT using inverse kinematics error model. Based on this algorithm, the calibration procedure is simulated. Measurement configurations with maximum observability are decided as the first step of this algorithm for a robust calibration. The errors occurring in various configurations are illustrated graphically. It has been shown that the boundaries of the workspace should be searched for the maximum observability of errors. The importance of using configurations with sufficient observability in calibrating hexapod machine tools is verified by trial calibration with two different groups of randomly selected configurations. One group is selected to have sufficient observability and the other is in disregard of the observability criterion. Simulation results confirm the validity of the proposed identification algorithm.

Keywords: Calibration, Hexapod Machine Tool (HMT), InverseKinematics Error Model, Observability, Parallel Robot, ParameterIdentification.

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Authors: Hasan Hassoun, Jaafar Hallal, Denis Duhamel, Mohammad Hammoud, Ali Hage Diab

Abstract:

This paper aims to prove the accuracy of an inexpensive smartphone camera as a non-contact vibration sensor to recover the vibration modes of a vibrating structure such as a cantilever beam. A video of a vibrating beam is filmed using a smartphone camera and then processed by the motion magnification technique. Based on this method, the first two natural frequencies and their associated mode shapes are estimated experimentally and compared to the analytical ones. Results show a relative error of less than 4% between the experimental and analytical approaches for the first two natural frequencies of the beam. Also, for the first two-mode shapes, a Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC) value of above 0.9 between the two approaches is obtained. This slight error between the different techniques ensures the viability of a cheap smartphone camera as a non-contact vibration sensor, particularly for structures vibrating at relatively low natural frequencies.

Keywords: Modal Analysis, motion magnification, smartphone camera, structural vibration, vibration modes.

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Authors: Jean-Pierre Dubois, Rania Minkara, Rafic Ayoubi

Abstract:

Maximal Ratio Combining (MRC) is considered the most complex combining technique as it requires channel coefficients estimation. It results in the lowest bit error rate (BER) compared to all other combining techniques. However the BER starts to deteriorate as errors are introduced in the channel coefficients estimation. A novel combining technique, termed Generalized Maximal Ratio Combining (GMRC) with a polynomial kernel, yields an identical BER as MRC with perfect channel estimation and a lower BER in the presence of channel estimation errors. We show that GMRC outperforms the optimal MRC scheme in general and we hereinafter introduce it to the scientific community as a new “supraoptimal" algorithm. Since diversity combining is especially effective in small femto- and pico-cells, internet-associated wireless peripheral systems are to benefit most from GMRC. As a result, many spinoff applications can be made to IP-based 4th generation networks.

Keywords: Bit error rate, femto-internet cells, generalized maximal ratio combining, signal-to-scattering noise ratio.

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