Search results for: nature conservation

Authors: Farag Azzedin, Ali Rizvi

Abstract:

In any trust model, the two information sources that a peer relies on to predict trustworthiness of another peer are direct experience as well as reputation. These two vital components evolve over time. Trust evolution is an important issue, where the objective is to observe a sequence of past values of a trust parameter and determine the future estimates. Unfortunately, trust evolution algorithms received little attention and the proposed algorithms in the literature do not comply with the conditions and the nature of trust. This paper contributes to this important problem in the following ways: (a) presents an algorithm that manages and models trust evolution in a P2P environment, (b) devises new mechanisms for effectively maintaining trust values based on the conditions that influence trust evolution , and (c) introduces a new methodology for incorporating trust-nurture incentives into the trust evolution algorithm. Simulation experiments are carried out to evaluate our trust evolution algorithm.

Keywords: P2P, Trust, Reputation, Incentives.

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Authors: Parvinder Singh Sandhu, Sumeet Kaur Sehra, Karmjit Kaur

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Phylogenetic tree is a graphical representation of the evolutionary relationship among three or more genes or organisms. These trees show relatedness of data sets, species or genes divergence time and nature of their common ancestors. Quality of a phylogenetic tree requires parsimony criterion. Various approaches have been proposed for constructing most parsimonious trees. This paper is concerned about calculating and optimizing the changes of state that are needed called Small Parsimony Algorithms. This paper has proposed enhanced small parsimony algorithm to give better score based on number of evolutionary changes needed to produce the observed sequence changes tree and also give the ancestor of the given input.

Keywords: Phylogenetic Analysis, Small Parsimony, EnhancedFitch Algorithm, Enhanced Sakoff Algorithm.

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Authors: Martha Liliana Reina Usuga, Wilson Adarme Jaimes, Oscar Eduardo Suarez

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Coordinated supply chain represents major challenges for the different actors involved in it, because each agent responds to individual interests. The paper presents a framework with the reviewed literature regarding the system's decision structure and nature of demand. Later, it characterizes an agri food supply chain in the Central Region of Colombia, it responds to a decentralized distribution system and a stochastic demand. Finally, the paper recommends coordinating the chain based on shared information, and mechanisms for each agent, as VMI (vendor-managed inventory) strategy for farmer-buyer relationship, information system for farmers and contracts for transportation service providers.

Keywords: Agri-food supply chain, Coordination mechanisms, Decentralized distribution system, Supply chain coordination.

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

Abstract:

Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: Line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity.

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Authors: Carlos Ferreira, Paulo Freitas, Valentim Freitas

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Creative industries’ workers are becoming more prominent as countries move towards intellectual-based economies. Consequently, the nature and essence of the workplace needs to be reconfigured so that creativity and productivity can be better promoted at these spaces. Using a multidisciplinary approach and a user-centered methodology, combining product design, electronic engineering, software and human-computer interaction, we have designed and developed a new seat that uses embedded sensors and actuators to increase the overall well-being of its users, their productivity and their creativity. Our contribution focuses on the parameters that most affect the user’s work on these kinds of spaces, which are, according to our study, noise and temperature. We describe the design process for a new interactive seat targeted at improving workspace productivity.

Keywords: Human-computer interaction, usability, user interface, creativity, ergonomics.

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Authors: Sujata Upgupta, Prasoon Kumar Singh

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The expansion of large scale coal mining into forest areas is a potential hazard for the local biodiversity and wildlife. The objective of this study is to provide a picture of the threat that coal mining poses to the forests of the East Bokaro landscape. The vulnerable forest areas at risk have been assessed and the priority areas for conservation have been presented. The forested areas at risk in the current scenario have been assessed and compared with the past conditions using classification and buffer based overlay approach. Forest vulnerability has been assessed using an analytical framework based on systematic indicators and composite vulnerability index values. The results indicate that more than 4 km² of forests have been lost from 1973 to 2016. Large patches of forests have been diverted for coal mining projects. Forests in the northern part of the coal field within 1-3 km radius around the coal mines are at immediate risk. The original contiguous forests have been converted into fragmented and degraded forest patches. Most of the collieries are located within or very close to the forests thus threatening the biodiversity and hydrology of the surrounding regions. Based on the vulnerability values estimated, it was concluded that more than 90% of the forested grids in East Bokaro are highly vulnerable to mining. The forests in the sub-districts of Bermo and Chandrapura have been identified as the most vulnerable to coal mining activities. This case study would add to the capacity of the forest managers and mine managers to address the risk and vulnerability of forests at a small landscape level in order to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords: Coal mining, forest, indicators, vulnerability.

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Authors: G.Mehdiyeva, V.Ibrahimov, M.Imanova

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As is known, one of the priority directions of research works of natural sciences is introduction of applied section of contemporary mathematics as approximate and numerical methods to solving integral equation into practice. We fare with the solving of integral equation while studying many phenomena of nature to whose numerically solving by the methods of quadrature are mainly applied. Taking into account some deficiency of methods of quadrature for finding the solution of integral equation some sciences suggested of the multistep methods with constant coefficients. Unlike these papers, here we consider application of hybrid methods to the numerical solution of Volterra integral equation. The efficiency of the suggested method is proved and a concrete method with accuracy order p = 4 is constructed. This method in more precise than the corresponding known methods.

Keywords: Volterra integral equation, hybrid methods, stability and degree, methods of quadrature

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Authors: R. O. Ocaya, J. J. Terblans

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The laws of Newtonian mechanics allow ab-initio molecular dynamics to model and simulate particle trajectories in material science by defining a differentiable potential function. This paper discusses some considerations for the coding of ab-initio programs for simulation on a standalone computer and illustrates the approach by C language codes in the context of embedded metallic atoms in the face-centred cubic structure. The algorithms use velocity-time integration to determine particle parameter evolution for up to several thousands of particles in a thermodynamical ensemble. Such functions are reusable and can be placed in a redistributable header library file. While there are both commercial and free packages available, their heuristic nature prevents dissection. In addition, developing own codes has the obvious advantage of teaching techniques applicable to new problems.

Keywords: C-language, molecular dynamics, simulation, embedded atom method.

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Authors: Yasuyuki Konishi, Masayoshi Kobayashi

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Six parameters, the effective diffusivity (De), activation energy of De, pre-exponential factor of De, amount (ASOW) of self-organized water species, and amplitude (α) of the forced oscillation of the molecular mobility (1/tC) derived from the forced cyclic temperature change operation, were characterized by using six typical foods, squid, sardines, scallops, salmon, beef, and pork, as a function of the correlation time (tC) of the water molecule-s proton retained in the foods. Each of the six parameters was clearly divided into the water species A1 and A2 at a specified value of tC =10-8s (=CtC), indicating an anomalous change in the physicochemical nature of the water species at the CtC. The forced oscillation of 1/tC clearly demonstrated a characteristic mode depending on the food shown as a three dimensional map associated with 1/tC, the amount of self-organized water, and tC.

Keywords: molecular mobility, self-organization, hysteresis, water species A1 and A2, forced cyclic temperature change operation (FCTCO)

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Authors: Mella Ismelina Farma Rahayu

Abstract:

Environmental problems could not be separated from unethical human perspectives and behaviors toward the environment. There is a fundamental error in the philosophy of people’s perspective about human and nature and their relationship with the environment, which in turn will create an inappropriate behavior in relation to the environment. The aim of this study is to investigate and to understand the ethics of the environment in the context of humans interacting with the environment by using the hermeneutic approach. The related theories and concepts collected from literature review are used as data, which were analyzed by using interpretation, critical evaluation, internal coherence, comparisons, and heuristic techniques. As a result of this study, there will be a picture related to the interaction of human and environment in the perspective of environmental ethics, as well as the problems of the value of ecological justice in the interaction of humans and environment. We suggest that the interaction between humans and environment need to be based on environmental ethics, in a spirit of mutual respect between humans and the natural world.

Keywords: The environment, environmental ethics, the interaction, value.

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Authors: K. Touafek, A. Khelifa, I. Tabet, H. Haloui, H. Bencheikh El Houcine, M. Adouane

Abstract:

Hybrid photovoltaic thermal (PVT) collectors allow simultaneous production of electrical energy thus heat energy. There are several configurations of hybrid collectors (to produce water or air). For hybrids water collectors, there are several configurations that differ by the nature of the absorber (serpentine, tubes...). In this paper, an absorber tank is studied. The circulation of the coolant is natural (we do not use the pump). We present the obtained results in our experimental study and we analyzed the data, and then we compare the results with the theory practices. The electrical performances of the hybrid collector are compared with those of conventional photovoltaic module mounted on the same structure and measured under the same conditions.

We conducted experiments with natural circulation of the coolant (Thermosyphon), for a flow rate of 0.025kg/m².

Keywords: Experimental, Photovoltaic, Solar, Temperature, Tank.

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Authors: Chunchom Pongchavalit

Abstract:

For the electrical metrics that describe photovoltaic cell performance are inherently multivariate in nature, use of a univariate, or one variable, statistical process control chart can have important limitations. Development of a comprehensive process control strategy is known to be significantly beneficial to reducing process variability that ultimately drives up the manufacturing cost photovoltaic cells. The multivariate moving average or MMA chart, is applied to the electrical metrics of photovoltaic cells to illustrate the improved sensitivity on process variability this method of control charting offers. The result show the ability of the MMA chart to expand to as any variables as needed, suggests an application with multiple photovoltaic electrical metrics being used in concert to determine the processes state of control.

Keywords: The multivariate moving average control chart, Photovoltaic processes control, Multivariate system.

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Authors: F. C. Calnegru

Abstract:

This article presents a computationally tractable probabilistic model for the relation between the complex wavelet coefficients of two images of the same scene. The two images are acquisitioned at distinct moments of times, or from distinct viewpoints, or by distinct sensors. By means of the introduced probabilistic model, we argue that the similarity between the two images is controlled not by the values of the wavelet coefficients, which can be altered by many factors, but by the nature of the wavelet coefficients, that we model with the help of hidden state variables. We integrate this probabilistic framework in the construction of a new image registration algorithm. This algorithm has sub-pixel accuracy and is robust to noise and to other variations like local illumination changes. We present the performance of our algorithm on various image types.

Keywords: Complex wavelet transform, image registration, modeling using hidden state variables, probabilistic similaritymeasure.

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Authors: E. Šarauskis, L. Masilionyte, Z. Kriaučiūniene, K. Romaneckas

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All over the world, including the Middle and East European countries, sustainable tillage and sowing technologies are applied increasingly broadly with a view to optimising soil resources, mitigating soil degradation processes, saving energy resources, preserving biological diversity, etc. As a result, altered conditions of tillage and sowing technological processes are faced inevitably. The purpose of this study is to determine the seedbed topsoil hardness when using a combined sowing coulter in different sustainable tillage technologies. The research involved a combined coulter consisting of two dissected blade discs and a shoe coulter. In order to determine soil hardness at the seedbed area, a multipenetrometer was used. It was found by experimental studies that in loosened soil, a combined sowing coulter equally suppresses the furrow bottom, walls and soil near the furrow; therefore, here, soil hardness was similar at all researched depths and no significant differences were established. In loosened and compacted (double-rolled) soil, the impact of a combined coulter on the hardness of seedbed soil surface was more considerable at a depth of 2 mm. Soil hardness at the furrow bottom and walls to a distance of up to 26 mm was 1.1 MPa. At a depth of 10 mm, the greatest hardness was established at the furrow bottom. In loosened and heavily compacted (rolled for 6 times) soil, at a depth of 2 and 10 mm a combined coulter most of all compacted the furrow bottom, which has a hardness of 1.8 MPa. At a depth of 20 mm, soil hardness within the whole investigated area varied insignificantly and fluctuated by around 2.0 MPa. The hardness of furrow walls and soil near the furrow was by approximately 1.0 MPa lower than that at the furrow bottom

Keywords: Coulters design, seedbed, soil hardness, combined coulters, soil compaction.

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Authors: Jarrod Trevathan, Trina Myers

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Social networking is one of the most successful and popular tools to emerge from the Web 2.0 era. However, the increased interconnectivity and access to peoples- personal lives and information has created a plethora of opportunities for the nefarious side of human nature to manifest. This paper categorizes and describes the major types of anti-social behavior and criminal activity that can arise through undisciplined use and/or misuse of social media. We specifically address identity theft, misrepresentation of information posted, cyber bullying, children and social networking, and social networking in the work place. Recommendations are provided for how to reduce the risk of being the victim of a crime or engaging in embarrassing behavior that could irrevocably harm one-s reputation either professionally or personally. We also discuss what responsibilities social networking companies have to protect their users and also what law enforcement and policy makers can do to help alleviate the problems.

Keywords: Identity theft, misrepresentation, cyber bullying, online scams.

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Authors: Oshmita Dey, Debjani Chakraborty

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In this paper, a single period inventory model with resalable returns has been analyzed in an imprecise and uncertain mixed environment. Demand has been introduced as a fuzzy random variable. In this model, a single order is placed before the start of the selling season. The customer, for a full refund, may return purchased products within a certain time interval. Returned products are resalable, provided they arrive back before the end of the selling season and are found to be undamaged. Products remaining at the end of the season are salvaged. All demands not met directly are lost. The probabilities that a sold product is returned and that a returned product is resalable, both imprecise in a real situation, have been assumed to be fuzzy in nature.

Keywords: Fuzzy random variable, Modified graded meanintegration, Internet mail order, Inventory.

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Authors: Cauvery N. K., K. V. Viswanatha

Abstract:

Mobile Ad hoc network consists of a set of mobile nodes. It is a dynamic network which does not have fixed topology. This network does not have any infrastructure or central administration, hence it is called infrastructure-less network. The change in topology makes the route from source to destination as dynamic fixed and changes with respect to time. The nature of network requires the algorithm to perform route discovery, maintain route and detect failure along the path between two nodes [1]. This paper presents the enhancements of ARA [2] to improve the performance of routing algorithm. ARA [2] finds route between nodes in mobile ad-hoc network. The algorithm is on-demand source initiated routing algorithm. This is based on the principles of swarm intelligence. The algorithm is adaptive, scalable and favors load balancing. The improvements suggested in this paper are handling of loss ants and resource reservation.

Keywords: Ad hoc networks, On-demand routing, Swarmintelligence.

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Authors: Salem Ali Jebreil

Abstract:

In this work, a polyaniline/Iron oxide (PANI/Fe2O3) composite was chemically prepared by oxidative polymerization of aniline in acid medium, in presence of ammonium persulphate as an oxidant and amount of Fe2O3. The composite was characterized by a scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The prepared composite has been used as adsorbent to remove Tartrazine dye form aqueous solutions. The effects of initial dye concentration and temperature on the adsorption capacity of PANI/Fe2O3 for Tartrazine dye have been studied in this paper. The Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption models have been used for the mathematical description of adsorption equilibrium data. The best fit is obtained using the Freundlich isotherm with an R2 value of 0.998. The change of Gibbs energy, enthalpy, and entropy of adsorption has been also evaluated for the adsorption of Tartrazine onto PANI/ Fe2O3. It has been proved according the results that the adsorption process is endothermic in nature.

Keywords: Adsorption, Composite, dye, Polyaniline, Tartrazine.

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Authors: Haragobinda Srichandan, Sradhanjali Singh, Dong Jin Kim, Seoung-Won Lee

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The recovery of metal values and safe disposal of spent catalyst is gaining interest due to both its hazardous nature and increased regulation associated with disposal methods. Prior to the recovery of the valuable metals, removal of entrained deposits limit the diffusion of lixiviate resulting in low recovery of metals must be taken into consideration. Therefore, petroleum refinery spent catalyst was subjected to acetone washing and roasting at 500oC. The treated samples were investigated for metals bioleaching using Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans in batch reactors and the leaching efficiencies were compared. It was found out that acetone washed spent catalysts results in better metal recovery compare to roasted spent. About 83% Ni, 20% Al, 50% Mo and 73% V were leached using the acetone washed spent catalyst. In both the cases, Ni, V and Mo was high compared to Al.

Keywords: Acetone wash, At. ferrooxidans, Bioleaching, Calcined, Metal recovery.

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Authors: M. M. Muhammed, O. Khuzaima

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This research examined and outlined some of the challenges facing Islam and Muslims in the 21^st century, considering global Islamic representation and knowledge acquisition as key objectives. It was observed that the Western media misrepresentation of Islam and the Western ethos embodied by the acquisition of western civilisation are major challenges faced by Islam and Muslims today. The problem of sectarianism, decline in the socio-economic power of Muslim communities and the archaic nature of the Islamic creed were recorded as major actors to the evolving global Islamic issues. It was therefore concluded that Islam is not the reason for these challenges, rather the action of some Muslims and non-Muslims were the contributing factors to the pandemics faced by Islam and Muslims. Some relevant recommendations were made to the Islamic world that could serve as effectual solutions to these lingering problems.

Keywords: Islam, challenges, Misrepresentation, twenty-first century.

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Authors: Hsuan-Ming S Hu, Jolanta A Watson, Bronwen W Cribb, Gregory S Watson

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Biomimicry has many potential benefits as many technologies found in nature are superior to their man-made counterparts. As technological device components approach the micro and nanoscale, surface properties such as surface adhesion and friction may need to be taken into account. Lowering surface adhesion by manipulating chemistry alone might no longer be sufficient for such components and thus physical manipulation may be required. Adhesion reduction is only one of the many surface functions displayed by micro/nano-structured cuticles of insects. Here, we present a mini review of our understanding of insect cuticle structures and the relationship between the structure dimensions and the corresponding functional mechanisms. It may be possible to introduce additional properties to material surfaces (indeed multi-functional properties) based on the design of natural surfaces.

Keywords: Biomimicry, micro/nanostructures, self-cleaning surfaces, superhydrophobicity

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Authors: V. Povilaitis, S. Lazauskas, Š. Antanaitis, S. Sakalauskien, J. Sakalauskait, G. Pšibišauskien, O. Auškalnien, S. Raudonius, P. Duchovskis

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World population growth drives food demand, promotes intensification of agriculture, development of new production technologies and varieties more suitable for regional nature conditions. Climate change can affect the length of growing period, biomass and carbon accumulation in winter wheat. The increasing mean air temperature resulting from climate change can reduce the length of growth period of cereals, and without adequate adjustments in growing technologies or varieties, can reduce biomass and carbon accumulation. Deeper understanding and effective measures for monitoring and management of cereal growth process are needed for adaptation to changing climate and technological conditions.

Keywords: carbon, climate change, modeling, winter wheat

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Authors: Tushnik Sarkar, Mofazzal H. Khondekar, Subrata Banerjee

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This paper investigates the nature of the fluctuation of the daily average Solar wind speed time series collected over a period of 2492 days, from 1^st January, 1997 to 28^th October, 2003. The degree of self-similarity and scalability of the Solar Wind Speed signal has been explored to characterise the signal fluctuation. Multi-fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) method has been implemented on the signal which is under investigation to perform this task. Furthermore, the singularity spectra of the signals have been also obtained to gauge the extent of the multifractality of the time series signal.

Keywords: Detrended fluctuation analysis, generalized Hurst exponent, holder exponents, multifractal exponent, multifractal spectrum, singularity spectrum, time series analysis.

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Authors: Qatawneh H., Yousef S., Shirvani H.

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The purpose of this article is to propose a model designed to achieve Total Knowledge Transfer in the public health sector. The Total Knowledge Transfer Model integrated four essential organizational factors which have been under examined in totality in the literature. The research design was inductive in nature and used a case study for accomplishing the research objectives. The researcher investigated the factors that created a base to design a framework for total knowledge transfer in the public health sector. The results of this study are drawn from a fairly large sample in only two hospitals. A further research can be conducted to cover more responses from a wider health sector. The Total Knowledge Transfer Model is essential to improve the transfer and application of total common health knowledge.

Keywords: Health Care, Knowledge Management, Knowledge Transfer.

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Authors: Gülşah Çelik Gül, Figen Kurtuluş

Abstract:

Magnesium containing boron compounds with hexagonal structure have been drawn much attention due to their superconductive nature. The main target of this work is new modified microwave oven by on our own has an ability about passing through a gas in the oven medium for attainment of oxygen-free compounds such as c-BN.  Mg containing boride was synthesized by modified-microwave method under nitrogen atmosphere using amorphous boron and magnesium source in appropriate molar ratio. Microwave oven with oxygen free environment has been modified to aimed to obtain magnesium boride without oxygen. Characterizations were done by powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Mg containing boride, generally named magnesium boride, with amorphous character without oxygen is obtained via designed microwave oven system.

Keywords: Magnesium containing boron compounds, modified microwave synthesis, powder X-ray diffraction, FTIR.

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: Ghulam Ahmad

Abstract:

In this paper comparison of Reflector Antenna analyzing techniques based on wave and ray nature of optics is presented for an offset reflector antenna using GRASP (General Reflector antenna Analysis Software Package) software. The results obtained using PO (Physical Optics), PTD (Physical theory of Diffraction), and GTD (Geometrical Theory of Diffraction) are compared. The validity of PO and GTD techniques in regions around the antenna, caustic behavior of GTD in main beam, and deviation of GTD in case of near-in sidelobes of radiation pattern are discussed. The comparison for far-out sidelobes predicted by PO, PO + PTD and GTD is described. The effect of Direct Radiations from feed which results in feed selection for the system is addressed.

Keywords: Geometrical optics & geometrical theory of diffraction, offset reflector antenna, physical optics & physical theory of diffraction, PO & GO comaprison.

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Authors: I. Nižetić Kosović, T. Jagušt

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Lately, with the increasing number of location-based applications, demand for highly accurate and reliable indoor localization became urgent. This is a challenging problem, due to the measurement variance which is the consequence of various factors like obstacles, equipment properties and environmental changes in complex nature of indoor environments. In this paper we propose low-cost custom-setup infrastructure solution and localization algorithm based on the Weighted Centroid Localization (WCL) method. Localization accuracy is increased by several enhancements: calibration of RSSI values gained from wireless nodes, repetitive measurements of RSSI to exclude deviating values from the position estimation, and by considering orientation of the device according to the wireless nodes. We conducted several experiments to evaluate the proposed algorithm. High accuracy of ~1m was achieved.

Keywords: Indoor environment, received signal strength indicator, weighted centroid localization, wireless localization.

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Authors: Abdul Ganiy A. S. Oladosu

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The AL-MAJIRI school system is a variant of private Arabic and Islamic schools which cater for the religious and moral development of Muslims. In the past, the system produced clerics, scholars, judges, religious reformers, eminent teachers and great men who are worthy of emulation, particularly in northern Nigeria. Gradually, the system lost its glory but continued to discharge its educational responsibilities to a certain extent. This paper takes a look at the activities of the AL-MAJIRI schools. The introduction provides background information about Nigeria where the schools operate. This is followed by an overview of the Nigerian educational system, the nature and the features of the AL-MAJIRI school system, its weaknesses and the current challenges facing the schools. The paper concludes with emphasis on the urgent need for a comprehensive reform of the curriculum content of the schools. The step by step procedure required for the reform is discussed.

Keywords: AL-MAJIRI, Arabic and Islamic schools, Nigeria.

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Authors: Tien-Shun Chan, Yung-Chung Chang, Cheng-Yu Chu, Wen-Hui Chen, Yuan-Lin Chen, Shun-Chong Wang, Chang-Chun Wang

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98% of the energy needed in Taiwan has been imported. The prices of petroleum and electricity have been increasing. In addition, facility capacity, amount of electricity generation, amount of electricity consumption and number of Taiwan Power Company customers have continued to increase. For these reasons energy conservation has become an important topic. In the past linear regression was used to establish the power consumption models for chillers. In this study, grey prediction is used to evaluate the power consumption of a chiller so as to lower the total power consumption at peak-load (so that the relevant power providers do not need to keep on increasing their power generation capacity and facility capacity). In grey prediction, only several numerical values (at least four numerical values) are needed to establish the power consumption models for chillers. If PLR, the temperatures of supply chilled-water and return chilled-water, and the temperatures of supply cooling-water and return cooling-water are taken into consideration, quite accurate results (with the accuracy close to 99% for short-term predictions) may be obtained. Through such methods, we can predict whether the power consumption at peak-load will exceed the contract power capacity signed by the corresponding entity and Taiwan Power Company. If the power consumption at peak-load exceeds the power demand, the temperature of the supply chilled-water may be adjusted so as to reduce the PLR and hence lower the power consumption.

Keywords: Gery system theory, grey prediction, chller.

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