Search results for: Gregory S Watson
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 24

Search results for: Gregory S Watson

24 Some Relationships between Classes of Reverse Watson-Crick Finite Automata

Authors: Kazuki Murakami, Takashige Nakamura, Noriko Sakamoto, Kunio Aizawa

Abstract:

A Watson-Crick automaton is recently introduced as a computational model of DNA computing framework. It works on tapes consisting of double stranded sequences of symbols. Symbols placed on the corresponding cells of the double-stranded sequences are related by a complimentary relation. In this paper, we investigate a variation of Watson-Crick automata in which both heads read the tape in reverse directions. They are called reverse Watson-Crick finite automata (RWKFA). We show that all of following four classes, i.e., simple, 1-limited, all-final, all-final and simple, are equal to non-restricted version of RWKFA.

Keywords: automaton, DNA computing, formal languages, Watson-Crick automaton

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23 Multi-Functional Insect Cuticles: Informative Designs for Man-Made Surfaces

Authors: Hsuan-Ming S Hu, Jolanta A Watson, Bronwen W Cribb, Gregory S Watson

Abstract:

Biomimicry has many potential benefits as many technologies found in nature are superior to their man-made counterparts. As technological device components approach the micro and nanoscale, surface properties such as surface adhesion and friction may need to be taken into account. Lowering surface adhesion by manipulating chemistry alone might no longer be sufficient for such components and thus physical manipulation may be required. Adhesion reduction is only one of the many surface functions displayed by micro/nano-structured cuticles of insects. Here, we present a mini review of our understanding of insect cuticle structures and the relationship between the structure dimensions and the corresponding functional mechanisms. It may be possible to introduce additional properties to material surfaces (indeed multi-functional properties) based on the design of natural surfaces.

Keywords: Biomimicry, micro/nanostructures, self-cleaning surfaces, superhydrophobicity

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22 Improvement of Gregory's formula using Particle Swarm Optimization

Authors: N. Khelil. L. Djerou , A. Zerarka, M. Batouche

Abstract:

Consider the Gregory integration (G) formula with end corrections where h Δ is the forward difference operator with step size h. In this study we prove that can be optimized by minimizing some of the coefficient k a in the remainder term by particle swarm optimization. Experimental tests prove that can be rendered a powerful formula for library use.

Keywords: Numerical integration, Gregory Formula, Particle Swarm optimization.

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21 Clustering of Variables Based On a Probabilistic Approach Defined on the Hypersphere

Authors: Paulo Gomes, Adelaide Figueiredo

Abstract:

We consider n individuals described by p standardized variables, represented by points of the surface of the unit hypersphere Sn-1. For a previous choice of n individuals we suppose that the set of observables variables comes from a mixture of bipolar Watson distribution defined on the hypersphere. EM and Dynamic Clusters algorithms are used for identification of such mixture. We obtain estimates of parameters for each Watson component and then a partition of the set of variables into homogeneous groups of variables. Additionally we will present a factor analysis model where unobservable factors are just the maximum likelihood estimators of Watson directional parameters, exactly the first principal component of data matrix associated to each group previously identified. Such alternative model it will yield us to directly interpretable solutions (simple structure), avoiding factors rotations.

Keywords: Dynamic Clusters algorithm, EM algorithm, Factor analysis model, Hierarchical Clustering, Watson distribution.

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20 Ignition Delay Correlation for a Direct Injection Diesel Engine Fuelled with Automotive Diesel and Water Diesel Emulsion

Authors: K.Alkhulaifi, M. Hamdalla

Abstract:

Most of ignition delay correlations studies have been developed in a constant volume bombs which cannot capture the dynamic variation in pressure and temperature during the ignition delay as in real engines. Watson, Assanis et. al. and Hardenberg and Hase correlations have been developed based on experimental data of diesel engines. However, they showed limited predictive ability of ignition delay when compared to experimental results. The objective of the study was to investigate the dependency of ignition delay time on engine brake power. An experimental investigation of the effect of automotive diesel and water diesel emulsion fuels on ignition delay under steady state conditions of a direct injection diesel engine was conducted. A four cylinder, direct injection naturally aspirated diesel engine was used in this experiment over a wide range of engine speeds and two engine loads. The ignition delay experimental data were compared with predictions of Assanis et. al. and Watson ignition delay correlations. The results of the experimental investigation were then used to develop a new ignition delay correlation. The newly developed ignition delay correlation has shown a better agreement with the experimental data than Assanis et. al. and Watson when using automotive diesel and water diesel emulsion fuels especially at low to medium engine speeds at both loads. In addition, the second derivative of cylinder pressure which is the most widely used method in determining the start of combustion was investigated.

Keywords: gnition delay correlation, water diesel emulsion, direct injection diesel engine

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19 Kinetic Modeling of Transesterification of Triacetin Using Synthesized Ion Exchange Resin (SIERs)

Authors: Hafizuddin W. Yussof, Syamsutajri S. Bahri, Adam P. Harvey

Abstract:

Strong anion exchange resins with QN+OH-, have the potential to be developed and employed as heterogeneous catalyst for transesterification, as they are chemically stable to leaching of the functional group. Nine different SIERs (SIER1-9) with QN+OH-were prepared by suspension polymerization of vinylbenzyl chloridedivinylbenzene (VBC-DVB) copolymers in the presence of n-heptane (pore-forming agent). The amine group was successfully grafted into the polymeric resin beads through functionalization with trimethylamine. These SIERs are then used as a catalyst for the transesterification of triacetin with methanol. A set of differential equations that represents the Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen- Watson (LHHW) and Eley-Rideal (ER) models for the transesterification reaction were developed. These kinetic models of LHHW and ER were fitted to the experimental data. Overall, the synthesized ion exchange resin-catalyzed reaction were welldescribed by the Eley-Rideal model compared to LHHW models, with sum of square error (SSE) of 0.742 and 0.996, respectively.

Keywords: Anion exchange resin, Eley-Rideal, Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson, transesterification.

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18 Simulation of Voltage Controlled Tunable All Pass Filter Using LM13700 OTA

Authors: Bhaba Priyo Das, Neville Watson, Yonghe Liu

Abstract:

In recent years Operational Transconductance Amplifier based high frequency integrated circuits, filters and systems have been widely investigated. The usefulness of OTAs over conventional OP-Amps in the design of both first order and second order active filters are well documented. This paper discusses some of the tunability issues using the Matlab/Simulink® software which are previously unreported for any commercial OTA. Using the simulation results two first order voltage controlled all pass filters with phase tuning capability are proposed.

Keywords: All pass filter, Operational Transconductance Amplifier, Simulation.

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17 Analysis of DNA from Fired Cartridge Casings

Authors: S. Mawlood, L. Dennany, N. Watson, B. Pickard

Abstract:

DNA analysis has been widely accepted as providing valuable evidence concerning the identity of the source of biological traces. Our work has showed that DNA samples can survive on cartridges even after firing. The study also raised the possibility of determining other information such as the age of the donor. Such information may be invaluable in certain cases where spent cartridges from automatic weapons are left behind at the scene of a crime. In spite of the nature of touch evidence and exposure to high chamber temperatures during shooting, we were still capable to retrieve enough DNA for profile typing. In order to estimate age of contributor, DNA methylation levels were analyzed using EpiTect system for retrieved DNA. However, results were not conclusive, due to low amount of input DNA.

Keywords: Age prediction, Fired cartridge, Trace DNA sample.

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16 Performance Boundaries for Interactive Finite Element Applications

Authors: Jaewon Jang, Gregory R. Miller

Abstract:

This paper presents work characterizing finite element performance boundaries within which live, interactive finite element modeling is feasible on current and emerging systems. These results are based on wide-ranging tests performed using a prototype finite element program implemented specifically for this study, thereby enabling the unified investigation of numerous direct and iterative solver strategies and implementations in a variety of modeling contexts. The results are intended to be useful for researchers interested in interactive analysis by providing baseline performance estimates, to give guidance in matching solution strategies to problem domains, and to spur further work addressing the challenge of extending the present boundaries.

Keywords: Finite Elements, Interactive Modeling, NumericalAnalysis.

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15 Dynamic Meshing for Material Point Method Computations

Authors: Wookuen Shin, Gregory R. Miller, Pedro Arduino, Peter Mackenzie-Helnwein

Abstract:

This paper presents strategies for dynamically creating, managing and removing mesh cells during computations in the context of the Material Point Method (MPM). The dynamic meshing approach has been developed to help address problems involving motion of a finite size body in unbounded domains in which the extent of material travel and deformation is unknown a priori, such as in the case of landslides and debris flows. The key idea is to efficiently instantiate and search only cells that contain material points, thereby avoiding unneeded storage and computation. Mechanisms for doing this efficiently are presented, and example problems are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of dynamic mesh management relative to alternative approaches.

Keywords: Numerical Analysis, Material Point Method, Large Deformations, Moving Boundaries.

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14 Social Media and Tacit Knowledge Sharing: Developing a Conceptual Model

Authors: Sirous Panahi , Jason Watson , Helen Partridge

Abstract:

With the advent of social web initiatives, some argued that these new emerging tools might be useful in tacit knowledge sharing through providing interactive and collaborative technologies. However, there is still a poverty of literature to understand how and what might be the contributions of social media in facilitating tacit knowledge sharing. Therefore, this paper is intended to theoretically investigate and map social media concepts and characteristics with tacit knowledge creation and sharing requirements. By conducting a systematic literature review, five major requirements found that need to be present in an environment that involves tacit knowledge sharing. These requirements have been analyzed against social media concepts and characteristics to see how they map together. The results showed that social media have abilities to comply some of the main requirements of tacit knowledge sharing. The relationships have been illustrated in a conceptual framework, suggesting further empirical studies to acknowledge findings of this study.

Keywords: Knowledge sharing, Tacit knowledge, Social media, Web 2.0

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13 The Paralinguistic Function of Emojis in Twitter Communication

Authors: Yasmin Tantawi, Mary Beth Rosson

Abstract:

In response to the dearth of information about emoji use for different purposes in different settings, this paper investigates the paralinguistic function of emojis within Twitter communication in the United States. To conduct this investigation, the Twitter feeds from 16 population centers spread throughout the United States were collected from the Twitter public API. One hundred tweets were collected from each population center, totaling to 1,600 tweets. Tweets containing emojis were next extracted using the “emot” Python package; these were then analyzed via the IBM Watson API Natural Language Understanding module to identify the topics discussed. A manual content analysis was then conducted to ascertain the paralinguistic and emotional features of the emojis used in these tweets. We present our characterization of emoji usage in Twitter and discuss implications for the design of Twitter and other text-based communication tools.

Keywords: Computer mediated communication, content analysis, paralinguistics, sociology.

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12 The Many Faces of your Employees: Insights into the Emerging Markets Workforce

Authors: Urvi Shriram

Abstract:

The higher compounded growth rates coupled with favourable demographics in emerging markets portend abundant opportunities for multinational organizations. With many organizations competing for talent in these growing markets, their ability to succeed will depend on their understanding of local workforce needs and aspirations. Using data from the Towers Watson 2010 Global Workforce Study, this paper highlights differences in employee engagement, turnover risks, and attraction and retention drivers between the two markets. Apart from looking at the traditional drivers of employee engagement, the study also explores the value placed by employees on elements like a strong senior leadership, managerial capabilities and career advancement opportunities. Results reveal that emerging markets employees seem to be more engaged and value the non-traditional elements more highly than the developed markets employees.

Keywords: Attraction and retention drivers, emerging markets, employee engagement, turnover risk

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11 A Simple Heat and Mass Transfer Model for Salt Gradient Solar Ponds

Authors: Safwan Kanan, Jonathan Dewsbury, Gregory Lane-Serff

Abstract:

A salinity gradient solar pond is a free energy source system for collecting, convertingand storing solar energy as heat. In thispaper, the principles of solar pond are explained. A mathematical model is developed to describe and simulate heat and mass transferbehaviour of salinity gradient solar pond. MATLAB codes are programmed to solve the one dimensional finite difference method for heat and mass transfer equations. Temperature profiles and concentration distributions are calculated. The numerical results are validated with experimental data and the results arefound to be in good agreement.

Keywords: Finite Difference method, Salt-gradient solar-pond, Solar energy, Transient heat and mass transfer.

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10 Evaluating the Feasibility of Magnetic Induction to Cross an Air-Water Boundary

Authors: Mark Watson, J.-F. Bousquet, Adam Forget

Abstract:

A magnetic induction based underwater communication link is evaluated using an analytical model and a custom Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) simulation tool. The analytical model is based on the Sommerfeld integral, and a full-wave simulation tool evaluates Maxwell’s equations using the FDTD method in cylindrical coordinates. The analytical model and FDTD simulation tool are then compared and used to predict the system performance for various transmitter depths and optimum frequencies of operation. To this end, the system bandwidth, signal to noise ratio, and the magnitude of the induced voltage are used to estimate the expected channel capacity. The models show that in seawater, a relatively low-power and small coils may be capable of obtaining a throughput of 40 to 300 kbps, for the case where a transmitter is at depths of 1 to 3 m and a receiver is at a height of 1 m.

Keywords: Magnetic Induction, FDTD, Underwater Communication, Sommerfeld.

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9 Patient-Specific Modeling Algorithm for Medical Data Based on AUC

Authors: Guilherme Ribeiro, Alexandre Oliveira, Antonio Ferreira, Shyam Visweswaran, Gregory Cooper

Abstract:

Patient-specific models are instance-based learning algorithms that take advantage of the particular features of the patient case at hand to predict an outcome. We introduce two patient-specific algorithms based on decision tree paradigm that use AUC as a metric to select an attribute. We apply the patient specific algorithms to predict outcomes in several datasets, including medical datasets. Compared to the patient-specific decision path (PSDP) entropy-based and CART methods, the AUC-based patient-specific decision path models performed equivalently on area under the ROC curve (AUC). Our results provide support for patient-specific methods being a promising approach for making clinical predictions.

Keywords: Approach instance-based, area Under the ROC Curve, Patient-specific Decision Path, clinical predictions.

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8 Performance Improvements of DSP Applications on a Generic Reconfigurable Platform

Authors: Michalis D. Galanis, Gregory Dimitroulakos, Costas E. Goutis

Abstract:

Speedups from mapping four real-life DSP applications on an embedded system-on-chip that couples coarsegrained reconfigurable logic with an instruction-set processor are presented. The reconfigurable logic is realized by a 2-Dimensional Array of Processing Elements. A design flow for improving application-s performance is proposed. Critical software parts, called kernels, are accelerated on the Coarse-Grained Reconfigurable Array. The kernels are detected by profiling the source code. For mapping the detected kernels on the reconfigurable logic a prioritybased mapping algorithm has been developed. Two 4x4 array architectures, which differ in their interconnection structure among the Processing Elements, are considered. The experiments for eight different instances of a generic system show that important overall application speedups have been reported for the four applications. The performance improvements range from 1.86 to 3.67, with an average value of 2.53, compared with an all-software execution. These speedups are quite close to the maximum theoretical speedups imposed by Amdahl-s law.

Keywords: Reconfigurable computing, Coarse-grained reconfigurable array, Embedded systems, DSP, Performance

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7 Creation and Annihilation of Spacetime Elements

Authors: Dnyanesh P. Mathur, Gregory L. Slater

Abstract:

Gravitation and the expansion of the universe at a large scale are generally regarded as two completely distinct phenomena. Yet, in General theory of Relativity (GR), they both manifest as 'curvature' of spacetime. We propose a hypothesis which treats these two 'curvature-producing' phenomena as aspects of an underlying process. This process treats spacetime itself as composed of discrete units (Plancktons) and is 'dynamic' in the sense that these elements of spacetime are continually being both created and annihilated. It is these two complementary processes of Planckton creation and Planckton annihilation which manifest themselves as - 'cosmic expansion' on the one hand and as 'gravitational attraction’ on the other. The Planckton hypothesis treats spacetime as a perfect fluid in the same manner as the co-moving frame of reference of Friedman equations and the Gullstrand-Painleve metric; i.e., Planckton hypothesis replaces 'curvature' of spacetime by the 'flow' of Plancktons (spacetime). Here we discuss how this perspective may allow a unified description of both cosmological and gravitational acceleration as well as providing a mechanism for inducing an irreducible action at every point associated with the creation and annihilation of Plancktons, which could be identified as the zero point energy.

Keywords: Discrete spacetime, spacetime flow, zero point energy, dark energy.

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6 Vector Space of the Extended Base-triplets over the Galois Field of five DNA Bases Alphabet

Authors: Robersy Sánchez, Ricardo Grau

Abstract:

A plausible architecture of an ancient genetic code is derived from an extended base triplet vector space over the Galois field of the extended base alphabet {D, G, A, U, C}, where the letter D represent one or more hypothetical bases with unspecific pairing. We hypothesized that the high degeneration of a primeval genetic code with five bases and the gradual origin and improvements of a primitive DNA repair system could make possible the transition from the ancient to the modern genetic code. Our results suggest that the Watson-Crick base pairing and the non-specific base pairing of the hypothetical ancestral base D used to define the sum and product operations are enough features to determine the coding constraints of the primeval and the modern genetic code, as well as the transition from the former to the later. Geometrical and algebraic properties of this vector space reveal that the present codon assignment of the standard genetic code could be induced from a primeval codon assignment. Besides, the Fourier spectrum of the extended DNA genome sequences derived from the multiple sequence alignment suggests that the called period-3 property of the present coding DNA sequences could also exist in the ancient coding DNA sequences.

Keywords: Genetic code vector space, primeval genetic code, power spectrum.

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5 Resilient Machine Learning in the Nuclear Industry: Crack Detection as a Case Study

Authors: Anita Khadka, Gregory Epiphaniou, Carsten Maple

Abstract:

There is a dramatic surge in the adoption of Machine Learning (ML) techniques in many areas, including the nuclear industry (such as fault diagnosis and fuel management in nuclear power plants), autonomous systems (including self-driving vehicles), space systems (space debris recovery, for example), medical surgery, network intrusion detection, malware detection, to name a few. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday modern human life. To date, the predominant focus has been developing underpinning ML algorithms that can improve accuracy, while factors such as resiliency and robustness of algorithms have been largely overlooked. If an adversarial attack is able to compromise the learning method or data, the consequences can be fatal, especially but not exclusively in safety-critical applications. In this paper, we present an in-depth analysis of five adversarial attacks and two defence methods on a crack detection ML model. Our analysis shows that it can be dangerous to adopt ML techniques without rigorous testing, since they may be vulnerable to adversarial attacks, especially in security-critical areas such as the nuclear industry. We observed that while the adopted defence methods can effectively defend against different attacks, none of them could protect against all five adversarial attacks entirely.

Keywords: Resilient Machine Learning, attacks, defences, nuclear industry, crack detection.

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4 Conceptual Synthesis of Multi-Source Renewable Energy Based Microgrid

Authors: Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa, Mighanda J. Manyahi, Nicodemu Gregory, Alex L. Kyaruzi

Abstract:

Microgrids are increasingly being considered to provide electricity for the expanding energy demand in the grid distribution network and grid isolated areas. However, the technical challenges associated with the operation and controls are immense. Management of dynamic power balances, power flow, and network voltage profiles imposes unique challenges in the context of microgrids. Stability of the microgrid during both grid-connected and islanded mode is considered as the major challenge during its operation. Traditional control methods have been employed are based on the assumption of linear loads. For instance the concept of PQ, voltage and frequency control through decoupled PQ are some of very useful when considering linear loads, but they fall short when considering nonlinear loads. The deficiency of traditional control methods of microgrid suggests that more research in the control of microgrids should be done. This research aims at introducing the dq technique concept into decoupled PQ for dynamic load demand control in inverter interfaced DG system operating as isolated LV microgrid. Decoupled PQ in exact mathematical formulation in dq frame is expected to accommodate all variations of the line parameters (resistance and inductance) and to relinquish forced relationship between the DG variables such as power, voltage and frequency in LV microgrids and allow for individual parameter control (frequency and line voltages). This concept is expected to address and achieve accurate control, improve microgrid stability and power quality at all load conditions.

Keywords: Decoupled PQ, microgrid, multisource, renewable energy, dq control.

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3 Case-Based Reasoning Application to Predict Geological Features at Site C Dam Construction Project

Authors: S. Behnam Malekzadeh, I. Kerr, T. Kaempffer, T. Harper, A Watson

Abstract:

The Site C Hydroelectric dam is currently being constructed in north-eastern British Columbia on sub-horizontal sedimentary strata that dip approximately 15 meters from one bank of the Peace River to the other. More than 615 pressure sensors (Vibrating Wire Piezometers) have been installed on bedding planes (BPs) since construction began, with over 80 more planned before project completion. These pressure measurements are essential to monitor the stability of the rock foundation during and after construction and for dam safety purposes. BPs are identified by their clay gouge infilling, which varies in thickness from less than 1 to 20 mm and can be challenging to identify as the core drilling process often disturbs or washes away the gouge material. Without the use of depth predictions from nearby boreholes, stratigraphic markers, and downhole geophysical data, it is difficult to confidently identify BP targets for the sensors. In this paper, a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) method was used to develop an empirical model called the Bedding Plane Elevation Prediction (BPEP) to help geologists and geotechnical engineers to predict geological features and BPs at new locations in a fast and accurate manner. To develop CBR, a database was developed based on 64 pressure sensors already installed on key bedding planes BP25, BP28, and BP31 on the Right Bank, including BP elevations and coordinates. 13 (20%) of the most recent cases were selected to validate and evaluate the accuracy of the developed model, while the similarity was defined as the distance between previous cases and recent cases to predict the depth of significant BPs. The average difference between actual BP elevations and predicted elevations for above BPs was ± 55 cm, while the actual results showed that 69% of predicted elevations were within ± 79 cm of actual BP elevations while 100% of predicted elevations for new cases were within ± 99 cm range. Eventually, the actual results will be used to develop the database and improve BPEP to perform as a learning machine to predict more accurate BP elevations for future sensor installations.

Keywords: Case-Based Reasoning, CBR, geological feature, geology, piezometer, pressure sensor, core logging, dam construction.

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2 Challenges and Opportunities for Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Development of Ecotourism in Lalzi Bay, Durres County, Albania - Today's Science for Tomorrow's Management. A Methodology Guide with a Concrete Example by Lalzi Bay, Durres County, Albania

Authors: Arnisa Lushaj, Arvjen Lushaj, Sunitha N. Seenappa, Georgia Butina-Watson, Bashkim Lushaj, Vera Malsia, Dodë Doçi, Mercedes Hunt, Ervin Buçpapaj

Abstract:

Tourism and coastal lines are the business sectors since centuries especially in the European Nations and Albania is one such spots. However, in recent decades tourism is experienced as vulnerability of the surrounding ecological conditions of air, soil, water, land and the communities that are dependant and sharing the ecosystem among flora and fauna. Experts opine that apart from the maintenance of near-originality of ecological biodiversity the tourism rather known as ecotourism an indigenous socio-cultural maintenance of indigenous/traditional knowledge of the local people must be well cared in order to sustain on sustainable grounds. As a general tendency, growth of tourism has been affected by the deterioration in the economic conditions on one aspect and unsustainable ecological areas affected since human interventions earlier to this has negative impact on futuristic tourist spots. However, tourism in Albania as of now is 11% of GDP and coastal regions accounting to 2-4%. An amicable Mediterranean climate with 300 sunny days similar parameters of Greece and Spain throws up sustainable ecotourism in future decades provided public services namely, transportation, road safety, lodging, food availability, recreational regiments, banking accessibility are as per the World Tourism Organizations- protocols. Thus as of Albanian situation, classification of ecotourism activities to safe-guard the localities with its maintenance of ecological land, water and climate has become a paramount importance with a wanting and satisfactory options through harnessing human energy for profit and fitness of ecological flora and fauna. A check on anthropogenic wastes and their safer utilizations inclusive of agricultural and industrial operations in line with Lalzi Bay Coastal Line are of utmost importance for the reason that the Adriatic Sea Coast is the one long stretch of Albanian Lifeline. The present work is based on the methodology of the sustainable management of the same issue.

Keywords: Albania, ecotourism, Lalzi Bay, sustainability.

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1 The U.S. Missile Defense Shield and Global Security Destabilization: An Inconclusive Link

Authors: Michael A. Unbehauen, Gregory D. Sloan, Alberto J. Squatrito

Abstract:

Missile proliferation and global stability are intrinsically linked. Missile threats continually appear at the forefront of global security issues. North Korea’s recently demonstrated nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, for the first time since the Cold War, renewed public interest in strategic missile defense capabilities. To protect from limited ICBM attacks from so-called rogue actors, the United States developed the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. This study examines if the GMD missile defense shield has contributed to a safer world or triggered a new arms race. Based upon increased missile-related developments and the lack of adherence to international missile treaties, it is generally perceived that the GMD system is a destabilizing factor for global security. By examining the current state of arms control treaties as well as existing missile arsenals and ongoing efforts in technologies to overcome U.S. missile defenses, this study seeks to analyze the contribution of GMD to global stability. A thorough investigation cannot ignore that, through the establishment of this limited capability, the U.S. violated longstanding, successful weapons treaties and caused concern among states that possess ICBMs. GMD capability contributes to the perception that ICBM arsenals could become ineffective, creating an imbalance in favor of the United States, leading to increased global instability and tension. While blame for the deterioration of global stability and non-adherence to arms control treaties is often placed on U.S. missile defense, the facts do not necessarily support this view. The notion of a renewed arms race due to GMD is supported neither by current missile arsenals nor by the inevitable development of new and enhanced missile technology, to include multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRVs), maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). The methodology in this study encapsulates a period of time, pre- and post-GMD introduction, while analyzing international treaty adherence, missile counts and types, and research in new missile technologies. The decline in international treaty adherence, coupled with a measurable increase in the number and types of missiles or research in new missile technologies during the period after the introduction of GMD, could be perceived as a clear indicator of GMD contributing to global instability. However, research into improved technology (MIRV, MaRV and HGV) prior to GMD, as well as a decline of various global missile inventories and testing of systems during this same period, would seem to invalidate this theory. U.S. adversaries have exploited the perception of the U.S. missile defense shield as a destabilizing factor as a pretext to strengthen and modernize their militaries and justify their policies. As a result, it can be concluded that global stability has not significantly decreased due to GMD; but rather, the natural progression of technological and missile development would inherently include innovative and dynamic approaches to target engagement, deterrence, and national defense.

Keywords: Arms control, arms race, global security, GMD, ICBM, missile defense, proliferation.

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