Search results for: Biased economic effect analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12856

Search results for: Biased economic effect analysis

12376 Multi-Criteria Spatial Analysis for the Localization of Production Structures. Analytic Hierarchy Process and Geographical Information Systems in the Case of Expanding an Industrial Area

Authors: Gianluigi De Mare, Pierluigi Morano, Antonio Nesticò

Abstract:

Among the numerous economic evaluation techniques currently available, Multi-criteria Spatial Analysis lends itself to solving localization problems of property complexes and, in particular, production plants. The methodology involves the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the mapping overlay technique, which overlaps the different information layers of a territory in order to obtain an overview of the parameters that characterize it. This first phase is used to detect possible settlement surfaces of a new agglomeration, subsequently selected through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), so as to choose the best alternative. The result ensures the synthesis of a multidimensional profile that expresses both the quantitative and qualitative effects. Each criterion can be given a different weight.

Keywords: Multi-criteria Spatial Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Geographical Information Systems, localization of industrial areas.

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12375 Competitiveness and Value Creation of Tourism Sector: In the Case of 10 ASEAN Economies

Authors: Apirada Chinprateep

Abstract:

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the goal of regional economic integration by 2015. In the region, tourism is an activity that is important, especially as a source of foreign currency, a source of employment creation and a source of income bringing to the region. Given the complexity of the issues entailing the concept of sustainable tourism, this paper tries to assess tourism sustainability with the ASEAN, based on a number of quantitative indicators for all the ten economies, Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Cambodia, and Brunei. The methodological framework will provide a number of benchmarks of tourism activities in these countries. They include identification of the dimensions; for example, economic, socio-ecologic, infrastructure and indicators, method of scaling, chart representation and evaluation on Asian countries. This specification shows that a similar level of tourism activity might introduce different implementation in the tourism activity and might have different consequences for the socioecological environment and sustainability. The heterogeneity of developing countries exposed briefly here would be useful to detect and prepare for coping with the main problems of each country in their tourism activities, as well as competitiveness and value creation of tourism for ASEAN economic community, and will compare with other parts of the world.

Keywords: AEC, ASEAN, sustainable, tourism, competitiveness.

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12374 Assessing the Impact of Contour Strips of Perennial Grass with Bio-fuel Potentials on Aquatic Environment

Authors: Roy R. Gu, Mahesh Sahu

Abstract:

The use of contour strips of perennial vegetation with bio-fuel potential can improve surface water quality by reducing NO3-N and sediment outflow from cropland to surface water-bodies. It also has economic benefits of producing ethanol. In this study, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to a watershed in Iowa, USA to examine the effectiveness of contour strips of switch grass in reducing the NO3-N outflows from crop fields to rivers or lakes. Numerical experiments were conducted to identify potential subbasins in the watershed that have high water quality impact, and to examine the effects of strip size on NO3-N reduction under various meteorological conditions, i.e. dry, average and wet years. Useful information was obtained for the evaluation of economic feasibility of growing switch grass for bio-fuel in contour strips. The results can assist in cost-benefit analysis and decisionmaking in best management practices for environmental protection.

Keywords: ethanol, modeling, water quality, NO3-N, watershed.

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12373 The Effect of Ion Nitriding and Carbonitriding on Fretting Fatigue of Steels

Authors: V. Linhart, M.

Abstract:

The paper deals with the effect of ion nitriding and carbonitriding on fatigue strength of steel parts under the fretting conditions. Instrumented fatigue tests were carried out on surface treated flat bars from EA1N and EA4T steels with different strength. The chosen surfacing decrease importantly an unfavorable fretting effect. Nitridation suppressed the unfavorable effect of fretting almost entirely, while the influence of carbonitridation was less striking. The results were compared with those ones obtained on bars without surfacing. The causes of favorable influence of surfacing are discussed.

Keywords: Carbonitriding, fatigue, fretting, nitriding, steel.

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12372 Study of the Sloshing Phenomenon in a Tank Filled Partially with Liquid Using CFD Simulation

Authors: Amit Kumar, Jaikumar V., Pradeep A. G., Shivakumar Bhavi

Abstract:

Reducing sloshing is one of the major challenges in industries where transporting of liquid is involved. The present study investigates the sloshing effect for different liquid levels of 50% of the tank capacity. CFD simulation for two different baffle configurations has been carried out using a time-based multiphase Volume of fluid (VOF) scheme. Baffles were introduced to examine the sloshing effect inside the tank. Results were compared against the baseline case to assess the effectiveness of baffles; maximum liquid height over the period of the simulation was considered as the parameter for measuring the sloshing effect inside the tank. It was found that the addition of baffles reduced the sloshing effect inside the tank as compared to the baseline model.

Keywords: 3D effect of sloshing, multiphase volume of fluid, CFD, baffles

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12371 Degree and the Effect of Order in the Family on Violence against Women (VAW)

Authors: Javadi Alimohammad, Javadi Maryam

Abstract:

The purpose of this study attempts to emphasize the factors relating to intra-family relationships (order point of view) on violence against the women, For this purpose a survey technique on the sample size amounted 100 women of married of city of Ilam in country of Iran were considered. For measurement of violence against the women , the CTS scaled has been used .violence against the women be measured in four dimension ( emotional violence, psycho violence, physical violence, neglect violence). highest violence was related to emotional violence and after are as follow respectively : physical violence and neglect violence. The results showed that women have experienced the violence more than once during the last year, degree of order in family is high. Explanation result indicated that the order variables in family including collective thinking, empathy and communal co-circumstance have significant effects on violence against the women. Via multiple regression analysis variables of empathy, religious tenet and education of husband had significant effect on violence against women. In other words relationships among family effect on violence in family.

Keywords: violence, domestic violence, violence against women, family.

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12370 Formulating the Stochastic Finite Elements for Free Vibration Analysis of Plates with Variable Elastic Modulus

Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

Abstract:

In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: Stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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12369 Effect of Stiffeners on the Behavior of Slender Built up Steel I-Beams

Authors: M. E. Abou-Hashem El Dib, M. K. Swailem, M. M. Metwally, A. I. El Awady

Abstract:

This paper presents the effect of stiffeners on the behavior of slender steel I-beams. Nonlinear three dimensional finite element models are developed to represent the stiffened steel I-beams. The well established finite element (ANSYS 13.0) program is used to simulate the geometric and material nonlinear nature of the problem. Verification is achieved by comparing the obtained numerical results with the results of previous published experimental work. The parameters considered in the analysis are the horizontal stiffener's position and the horizontal stiffener's dimensions as well as the number of vertical stiffeners. The studied dimensions of the horizontal stiffeners include the stiffener width, the stiffener thickness and the stiffener length. The results of the achieved numerical parametric study for slender steel I-beams show the significant effect of stiffeners on the beam behavior and its failure load.

Keywords: Steel I-beams, local buckling, slender, stiffener, thin walled section.

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12368 Gender based Barriers to Effective Collaboration: A Case Study on Children's Safeguard Partnerships

Authors: L. McAllister, A. Dudau

Abstract:

This paper explores gender related barriers to interagency collaboration in statutory children safeguard partnerships against a theoretical framework that considers individuals, professions and organisations interacting as part of a complex adaptive system. We argue that gender-framed obstacles to effective communication between culturally discrepant agencies can ultimately impact on the effectiveness of policy delivery,. We focused our research on three partnership structures in Sefton Metropolitan Borough in order to observe how interactions occur, whether the agencies involved perceive their occupational environment as being gender affected and whether they believe this can hinder effective collaboration with other biased organisations. Our principal empirical findings indicate that there is a general awareness amongst professionals of the role that gender plays in each of the agencies reviewed, that gender may well constitute a barrier to effective communication, but there is a sense in which there is little scope for change in the short term. We aim to signal here, however, the need to change against the risk of service failure.

Keywords: Children's safeguard, gender, gendered professions, inter-agency collaboration, partnerships.

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12367 A New Model to Perform Preliminary Evaluations of Complex Systems for the Production of Energy for Buildings: Case Study

Authors: Roberto de Lieto Vollaro, Emanuele de Lieto Vollaro, Gianluca Coltrinari

Abstract:

The building sector is responsible, in many industrialized countries, for about 40% of the total energy requirements, so it seems necessary to devote some efforts in this area in order to achieve a significant reduction of energy consumption and of greenhouse gases emissions. The paper presents a study aiming at providing a design methodology able to identify the best configuration of the system building/plant, from a technical, economic and environmentally point of view. Normally, the classical approach involves a building's energy loads analysis under steady state conditions, and subsequent selection of measures aimed at improving the energy performance, based on previous experience made by architects and engineers in the design team. Instead, the proposed approach uses a sequence of two wellknown scientifically validated calculation methods (TRNSYS and RETScreen), that allow quite a detailed feasibility analysis. To assess the validity of the calculation model, an existing, historical building in Central Italy, that will be the object of restoration and preservative redevelopment, was selected as a casestudy. The building is made of a basement and three floors, with a total floor area of about 3,000 square meters. The first step has been the determination of the heating and cooling energy loads of the building in a dynamic regime by means, which allows simulating the real energy needs of the building in function of its use. Traditional methodologies, based as they are on steady-state conditions, cannot faithfully reproduce the effects of varying climatic conditions and of inertial properties of the structure. With this model is possible to obtain quite accurate and reliable results that allow identifying effective combinations building-HVAC system. The second step has consisted of using output data obtained as input to the calculation model, which enables to compare different system configurations from the energy, environmental and financial point of view, with an analysis of investment, and operation and maintenance costs, so allowing determining the economic benefit of possible interventions. The classical methodology often leads to the choice of conventional plant systems, while our calculation model provides a financial-economic assessment for innovative energy systems and low environmental impact. Computational analysis can help in the design phase, particularly in the case of complex structures with centralized plant systems, by comparing the data returned by the calculation model for different design options.

Keywords: Energy, Buildings, Systems, Evaluation.

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12366 A Utilitarian Approach to Modeling Information Flows in Social Networks

Authors: Usha Sridhar, Sridhar Mandyam

Abstract:

We propose a multi-agent based utilitarian approach to model and understand information flows in social networks that lead to Pareto optimal informational exchanges. We model the individual expected utility function of the agents to reflect the net value of information received. We show how this model, adapted from a theorem by Karl Borch dealing with an actuarial Risk Exchange concept in the Insurance industry, can be used for social network analysis. We develop a utilitarian framework that allows us to interpret Pareto optimal exchanges of value as potential information flows, while achieving a maximization of a sum of expected utilities of information of the group of agents. We examine some interesting conditions on the utility function under which the flows are optimal. We illustrate the promise of this new approach to attach economic value to information in networks with a synthetic example.

Keywords: Borch's Theorem , Economic value of information, Information Exchange, Pareto Optimal Solution, Social Networks, Utility Functions

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12365 A Theory-Based Analysis on Implications of Democracy in Cambodia

Authors: Puthsodary Tat

Abstract:

Democracy has been categorially accepted and used as foreign and domestic policy agendas for the hope of peace, economic growth and prosperity for more than 25 years in Cambodia. However, the country is now in the grip of dictatorship, human rights violations, and prospective economic sanctions. This paper examines different perceptions and experiences of democratic assistance. In this study, the author employs discourse theory, idealism and realism as a theory-based methodology for debating and assessing the implications of democratization. Discourse theory is used to establish a platform for understanding discursive formations, body of knowledge and the games of truth of democracy. Idealist approaches give rational arguments for adopting key tenets that work well on the ground. In contrast, realism allows for some sweeping critiques of utopian ideal and offers particular views on why Western hegemonic missions do not work well. From idealist views, the research finds that Cambodian people still believe that democracy is a prima facie universality for peace, growth and prosperity. From realism, democratization is on the brink of death in three reasons. Firstly, there are tensions between Western and local discourses about democratic values and norms. Secondly, democratic tenets have been undermined by the ruling party-controlled courts, corruption, structural oppression and political patronage-based institutions. The third pitfall is partly associated with foreign aid dependency and geopolitical power struggles in the region. Finally, the study offers a precise mosaic of democratic principles that may be used to avoid a future geopolitical and economic crisis.

Keywords: Corruption, democracy, democratic principles, discourse theory, discursive formations, foreign aid dependency, games of truth, geopolitical and economic crisis, geopolitical power struggle, hegemonic mission, idealism, realism, utopian ideal.

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12364 Studying the Effect of Shading by Rooftop PV Panels on Dwellings’ Thermal Performance

Authors: Saad Odeh

Abstract:

Thermal performance is considered to be a key measure in building sustainability. One of the technologies used in the current building sustainable design is the rooftop solar PV power generators. The application of this type of technology has expanded vastly during the last five years in many countries. This paper studies the effect of roof shading developed by the solar PV panels on dwellings’ thermal performance. The analysis in this work is performed by using two types of packages: “AccuRate Sustainability” for rating the energy efficiency of residential building design, and “PVSYST” for the solar PV power system design. The former package is used to calculate the annual heating and cooling load, and the later package is used to evaluate the power production from the roof top PV system. The analysis correlates the electrical energy generated from the PV panels to the change in the heating and cooling load due to roof shading. Different roof orientation, roof inclination, roof insulation, as well as PV panel area are considered in this study. The analysis shows that the drop in energy efficiency due to the shaded area of the roof by PV panels is negligible compared to the energy generated by these panels.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, roof shading, thermal performance, PV panel.

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12363 An Optimization of Machine Parameters for Modified Horizontal Boring Tool Using Taguchi Method

Authors: Thirasak Panyaphirawat, Pairoj Sapsmarnwong, Teeratas Pornyungyuen

Abstract:

This paper presents the findings of an experimental investigation of important machining parameters for the horizontal boring tool modified to mouth with a horizontal lathe machine to bore an overlength workpiece. In order to verify a usability of a modified tool, design of experiment based on Taguchi method is performed. The parameters investigated are spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut and length of workpiece. Taguchi L9 orthogonal array is selected for four factors three level parameters in order to minimize surface roughness (Ra and Rz) of S45C steel tubes. Signal to noise ratio analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) is performed to study an effect of said parameters and to optimize the machine setting for best surface finish. The controlled factors with most effect are depth of cut, spindle speed, length of workpiece, and feed rate in order. The confirmation test is performed to test the optimal setting obtained from Taguchi method and the result is satisfactory.

Keywords: Design of Experiment, Taguchi Design, Optimization, Analysis of Variance, Machining Parameters, Horizontal Boring Tool.

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12362 Design and Analysis of Piping System with Supports Using CAESAR-II

Authors: M. Jamuna Rani, K. Ramanathan

Abstract:

A steam power plant is housed with various types of equipments like boiler, turbine, heat exchanger etc. These equipments are mainly connected with piping systems. Such a piping layout design depends mainly on stress analysis and flexibility. It will vary with respect to pipe geometrical properties, pressure, temperature, and supports. The present paper is to analyze the presence and effect of hangers and expansion joints in the piping layout/routing using CAESAR-II software. Main aim of piping stress analysis is to provide adequate flexibility for absorbing thermal expansion, code compliance for stresses and displacement incurred in piping system. The design is said to be safe if all these are in allowable range as per code. In this study, a sample problem is considered for analysis as per power piping ASME B31.1 code and the results thus obtained are compared.

Keywords: ASTM B31.1, hanger, expansion joint, CAESAR-II.

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12361 The Policy Improvement for Developing OTOP under the Context of Changing into ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)

Authors: Kawinphat Lertpongmanee

Abstract:

The development of One Tambon One Product (OTOP) became the policy of the government in 1997 after the former Prime Minister had been in power. The strategy of sections is currently set for the policy. OTOP has become the part of the way of community lives around the country. OTOP may be developed under changing into ASEAN economic community in 2015 because of the flow of capitals, productions, and many workers in the region. All sectors are improved for the change. The purposes of study were to study the strength and weakness of the OTOP-creating process via its policy and to lead to the strategy to be able to apply before changing. The methodology is qualitative to study its policy including document and to interview experienced persons. The findings showed that the effort of improvement of all sectors obviously involves with OTOP development. Particularly, the strategic administration of OTOP is in every level of the state, central sector, region, and community.

Keywords: ASEAN Economic Community – AEC, One Tambon One Product – OTOP.

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12360 Forming of Institutional Mechanism of Region's Innovative Development

Authors: Mingaleva Zhanna, Gayfutdinova Oksana, Podgornova Evgenia

Abstract:

The regional innovative competitiveness is an integrating characteristic of the innovative sphere of the region. It depends on a big variety of different parameters connected with all kinds of economic entities- activities. But management parameters shouldn't be irregular, so in order to avoid it, an institutional system should be formed. This system should carry out strategic management of factors having the greatest influence on the region's innovative development. This article is devoted to different aspects of organization of the region's development institutional mechanism, which is based on management of regional innovative competitiveness parameters. The base of the analysis is innovatively-active Russian regions which were compared according to the level of the innovative competitiveness. After that the most important parameters of successful innovative development of the region were revealed with the help of the correlation-regression analysis. The results of the research could be used for investigation of the region's innovative policy.

Keywords: Regional innovative competitiveness, institutional mechanism, innovative region development, correlation-regression analysis.

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12359 Physicochemical Parameters and Economic Evaluation of Bio Ethanol Produced from Waste of Starting Dates in South Algeria

Authors: Insaf Mehani, Bachir Bouchekima

Abstract:

The fight against climate change and the replacement of fossil energies nearing exhaustion gradually emerge as major societal and economic challenges. It is possible to develop common dates of low commercial value, and put on the local and international market a new generation of products with high added values such as bio ethanol. Besides its use in chemical synthesis, bio ethanol can be blended with gasoline to produce a clean fuel while improving the octane.

Keywords: Bio energy, waste dates, bio ethanol.

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12358 Service Quality and Consumer Behavior on Metered Taxi Services

Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased

Abstract:

The purposes of this research are to make comparisons in respect of the behaviors on the use of the services of metered taxi classified by the demographic factor and to study the influence of the recognition on service quality having the effect on usage behaviors of metered taxi services of consumers in Bangkok Metropolitan Areas. The samples used in this research were 400 metered taxi service users in Bangkok Metropolitan Areas and questionnaire was used as the tool for collecting the data. Analysis statistics are mean and multiple regression analysis. Results of the research revealed that the consumers recognize the overall quality of services in each aspect include tangible aspects of the service, responses to customers, assurance on the confidence, understanding and knowing of customers which is rated at the moderate level except the aspect of the assurance on the confidence and trustworthiness which are rated at a high level. For the result of hypothetical test, it is found that the quality in providing the services on the aspect of the assurance given to the customers has the effect on the usage behaviors of metered taxi services and the aspect of the frequency on the use of the services per month which in this connection. Such variable can forecast at one point nine percent (1.9%). In addition, quality in providing the services and the aspect of the responses to customers have the effect on the behaviors on the use of metered taxi services on the aspect of the expenses on the use of services per month which in this connection, such variable can forecast at two point one percent (2.1%).

Keywords: Consumer behavior, metered taxi, satisfaction, service quality.

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12357 Identification of Social Responsibility Factors within Mega Construction Projects

Authors: Ali Alotaibi, Francis Edum-Fotwe, Andrew Price /

Abstract:

Mega construction projects create buildings and major infrastructure to respond to work and life requirements while playing a vital role in promoting any nation’s economy. However, the industry is often criticised for not balancing economic, environmental and social dimensions of their projects, with emphasis typically on one aspect to the detriment of the others. This has resulted in many negative impacts including environmental pollution, waste throughout the project lifecycle, low productivity, and avoidable accidents. The identification of comprehensive Social Responsibility (SR) indicators, which combine social, environmental and economic aspects, is urgently needed. This is particularly the case in the context of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which often has mega public construction projects. The aim of this paper is to develop a set of wide-ranging SR indicators which encompass social, economic and environmental aspects unique to the KSA. A qualitative approach was applied to explore relevant indicators through a review of the existing literature, international standards and reports. A list of appropriate indicators was developed, and its comprehensiveness was corroborated by interviews with experts on mega construction projects working with SR concepts in the KSA. The findings present 39 indicators and their metrics, covering 10 economic, 12 environmental and 17 social aspects of SR mapped against their references. These indicators are a valuable reference for decision-makers and academics in the KSA to understand factors related to SR in mega construction projects. The indicators are related to mega construction projects within the KSA and require validation in a real case scenario or within a different industry to demonstrate their generalisability.

Keywords: Social responsibility, construction projects, economic, social, environmental, indicators.

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12356 Identification of High Stress and Strain Regions in Proximal Femur during Single-Leg Stance and Sideways Fall Using QCT-Based Finite Element Model

Authors: H. Kheirollahi, Y. Luo

Abstract:

Studying stress and strain trends in the femur and recognizing femur failure mechanism is very important for preventing hip fracture in the elderly. The aim of this study was to identify high stress and strain regions in the femur during normal walking and falling to find the mechanical behavior and failure mechanism of the femur. We developed a finite element model of the femur from the subject’s quantitative computed tomography (QCT) image and used it to identify potentially high stress and strain regions during the single-leg stance and the sideways fall. It was found that fracture may initiate from the superior region of femoral neck and propagate to the inferior region during a high impact force such as sideways fall. The results of this study showed that the femur bone is more sensitive to strain than stress which indicates the effect of strain, in addition to effect of stress, should be considered for failure analysis.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, hip fracture, strain, stress.

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12355 Modernization of the Economic Price Adjustment Software

Authors: Roger L Goodwin

Abstract:

The US Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) measures hundreds of items in the US economy. Many social programs and government benefits index to the CPIs. The purpose of this project is to modernize an existing process. This paper will show the development of a small, visual, software product that documents the Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) for longterm contracts. The existing workbook does not provide the flexibility to calculate EPAs where the base-month and the option-month are different. Nor does the workbook provide automated error checking. The small, visual, software product provides the additional flexibility and error checking. This paper presents the feedback to project.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Economic Price Adjustment, contracts, visualization tools, database, reports, forms, event procedures.

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12354 Level of Concentration in Banking Markets and Length of EU Membership

Authors: Ivan Pavic, Fran Galetic, Tomislava Pavic Kramaric

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to analyze the degree of concentration in the banking market in EU member states as well as to determine the impact of the length of EU membership on the degree of concentration. In that sense several analysis were conducted, specifically, panel analysis, calculation of correlation coefficient and regression analysis of the impact of the length of EU membership on the degree of concentration. Panel analysis was conducted to determine whether there is a similar trend of concentration in three groups of countries - countries with a low, moderate and high level of concentration. The conducted panel analysis showed that in EU countries with a moderate level of concentration, the level of concentration decreases. The calculation of correlation showed that, to some extent, with other influential factors, the length of EU membership negatively affects the market concentration of the banking market. Using the regression analysis for investigation of the influence of the length of EU membership on the level of concentration in the banking sector in a particular country, the results reveal that there is a negative effect of the length in EU membership on market concentration, although it is not significantly influential variable.

Keywords: Banking sector, concentration, EU

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12353 Economic Dispatch Fuzzy Linear Regression and Optimization

Authors: A. K. Al-Othman

Abstract:

This study presents a new approach based on Tanaka's fuzzy linear regression (FLP) algorithm to solve well-known power system economic load dispatch problem (ELD). Tanaka's fuzzy linear regression (FLP) formulation will be employed to compute the optimal solution of optimization problem after linearization. The unknowns are expressed as fuzzy numbers with a triangular membership function that has middle and spread value reflected on the unknowns. The proposed fuzzy model is formulated as a linear optimization problem, where the objective is to minimize the sum of the spread of the unknowns, subject to double inequality constraints. Linear programming technique is employed to obtain the middle and the symmetric spread for every unknown (power generation level). Simulation results of the proposed approach will be compared with those reported in literature.

Keywords: Economic Dispatch, Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLP)and Optimization.

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12352 Designing Early Warning System: Prediction Accuracy of Currency Crisis by Using k-Nearest Neighbour Method

Authors: Nor Azuana Ramli, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Hooy Chee Wooi

Abstract:

Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other methods.

Keywords: Currency crisis, k-nearest neighbour method, logit, neural network.

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12351 Value for Money in Investment Projects

Authors: Jan Ceselsky

Abstract:

Construction and reconstruction of settlements and individual municipalities, environmental management and the creation, deployment of the forces of production and building transport and technical equipment requires a large expenditure of material and human resources. That is why the economic aspects of the majority decision in these planes built in the foreground and are often decisive. Thereby but more serious is that the economic aspects of the settlement, the creation and function remain in their whole, unprocessed, and cannot speak of a set of individual techniques and methods traditional indicators and experiments with new approaches. This is true both at the level of the national economy, and in their own urban designs. Still a few remain identified specific economic shaping patterns of settlement and the less it is possible to speak of their control. Also practical assessing economics of specific solutions are often used non-apt indicators in addition to economics usually identifies with the lowest acquisition cost or high-intensity land use with little regard for functional efficiency and little studied much higher operating and maintenance costs".

Keywords: Investment, municipal engineering, value for money.

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12350 Frequency Response Analysis of Reinforced- Soil Retaining Walls with Polymeric Strips

Authors: Ali Komakpanah, Maryam Yazdi

Abstract:

Few studies have been conducted on polymeric strip and the behavior of soil retaining walls. This paper will present the effect of frequency on the dynamic behavior of reinforced soil retaining walls with polymeric strips. The frequency content describes how the amplitude of a ground motion is distributed among different frequencies. Since the frequency content of an earthquake motion will strongly influence the effects of that motion, the characterization of the motion cannot be completed without the consideration of its frequency content. The maximum axial force of reinforcements and horizontal displacement of the reinforced walls are focused in this research. To clarify the dynamic behavior of reinforced soil retaining walls with polymeric strips, a numerical modeling using Finite Difference Method is benefited. As the results indicate, the frequency of input base acceleration has an important effect on the behavior of these structures. Because of resonant in the system, where the frequency of the input dynamic load is equal to the natural frequency of the system, the maximum horizontal displacement and the maximum axial forces in polymeric strips is occurred. Moreover, they were to increase the structure flexibility because of the main advantages of polymeric strips; i.e. being simple method of construction, having a homogeneous behavior with soils, and possessing long durability, which are of great importance in dynamic analysis.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, frequency, polymeric strip, reinforced soil.

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12349 Present Status, Driving Forces and Pattern Optimization of Territory in Hubei Province, China

Authors: Tingke Wu, Man Yuan

Abstract:

“National Territorial Planning (2016-2030)” was issued by the State Council of China in 2017. As an important initiative of putting it into effect, territorial planning at provincial level makes overall arrangement of territorial development, resources and environment protection, comprehensive renovation and security system construction. Hubei province, as the pivot of the “Rise of Central China” national strategy, is now confronted with great opportunities and challenges in territorial development, protection, and renovation. Territorial spatial pattern experiences long time evolution, influenced by multiple internal and external driving forces. It is not clear what are the main causes of its formation and what are effective ways of optimizing it. By analyzing land use data in 2016, this paper reveals present status of territory in Hubei. Combined with economic and social data and construction information, driving forces of territorial spatial pattern are then analyzed. Research demonstrates that the three types of territorial space aggregate distinctively. The four aspects of driving forces include natural background which sets the stage for main functions, population and economic factors which generate agglomeration effect, transportation infrastructure construction which leads to axial expansion and significant provincial strategies which encourage the established path. On this basis, targeted strategies for optimizing territory spatial pattern are then put forward. Hierarchical protection pattern should be established based on development intensity control as respect for nature. By optimizing the layout of population and industry and improving the transportation network, polycentric network-based development pattern could be established. These findings provide basis for Hubei Territorial Planning, and reference for future territorial planning in other provinces.

Keywords: Driving forces, Hubei, optimizing strategies, spatial pattern, territory.

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12348 Regression Analysis of Travel Indicators and Public Transport Usage in Urban Areas

Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, M. Zaly Shah, A. Hamzah

Abstract:

Currently, planners try to have more green travel options to decrease economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, this study tries to find significant urban travel factors to be used to increase the usage of alternative urban travel modes. This paper attempts to identify the relationship between prominent urban mobility indicators and daily trips by public transport in 30 cities from various parts of the world. Different travel modes, infrastructures and cost indicators were evaluated in this research as mobility indicators. The results of multi-linear regression analysis indicate that there is a significant relationship between mobility indicators and the daily usage of public transport.

Keywords: Green travel modes, urban travel indicators, daily trips by public transport, multi-linear regression analysis.

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12347 Biosensor Measurement of Urea Coonncentration in Human Blood Serum

Authors: O. L. Kukla, S. V. Marchenko, O. A. Zinchenko, O. S. Pavluchenko, O. M. KKuukla, S. V. Dzyadevych, O. P. Soldatkin

Abstract:

An application of the highly biosensor based on pH-sensitive field immobilized urease for urea analysis was demo The main analytical characteristics of the bios determined; the conditions of urea measureme blood were optimized. A conceptual possibility biosensor for detection of urea concentratio patients suffering from renal insufficiency was sensitive and selective effect transistor and monstrated in this work. iosensor developed were ment in real samples of ility of application of the tion in blood serum of as shown.

Keywords: Biosensor, blood serum, pH transistor, urea, urease, field-effect

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