Search results for: Hierarchical planning

Authors: Marios M. Hadjiandreou, Raul Conejeros, Ian Wilson

Abstract:

This study presents a mathematical modeling approach to the planning of HIV therapies on an individual basis. The model replicates clinical data from typical-progressors to AIDS for all stages of the disease with good agreement. Clinical data from rapid-progressors and long-term non-progressors is also matched by estimation of immune system parameters only. The ability of the model to reproduce these phenomena validates the formulation, a fact which is exploited in the investigation of effective therapies. The therapy investigation suggests that, unlike continuous therapy, structured treatment interruptions (STIs) are able to control the increase in both the drug-sensitive and drug-resistant virus population and, hence, prevent the ultimate progression from HIV to AIDS. The optimization results further suggest that even patients characterised by the same progression type can respond very differently to the same treatment and that the latter should be designed on a case-by-case basis. Such a methodology is presented here.

Keywords: AIDS, chemotherapy, mathematical modeling, optimal control, progression.

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Authors: P. Techaratpong

Abstract:

This research aims to study the role of cultural production in urban regeneration and argue that cultural production, if properly used, can play a vital role in reviving cities and create substantial positive impacts to the cities. The argument can be elucidated by the case study of Amphawa, a district in Samutsongkram province, Thailand, as an example of successful use of cultural productions. The conceptual framework is based on the model of culture contributions in regeneration to examine the impacts.

The research methodology is qualitative. This study found that cultural productions can revive cities into vibrant ones and exert considerable impacts: physical, social and economic.

It is suggested that, despite that there is not one-fit-all model, cultural production can be an important initiative for any city transformation if it is appropriately implemented. The city planners and authorities ought to consider the conditions and factors and design a specific plan to fit the city context and integrated with other planning.

Keywords: Cultural production, culture, cultural planning, impact, urban regeneration.

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Authors: I. Mahdavi, A. Jazayeri, M. Jahromi, R. Jafari, H. Iranmanesh

Abstract:

One of the most important problems in production planning of flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is machine tool selection and operation allocation problem that directly influences the production costs and times .In this paper minimizing machining cost, set-up cost and material handling cost as a multi-objective problem in flexible manufacturing systems environment are considered. We present a 0-1 integer linear programming model for the multiobjective machine tool selection and operation allocation problem and due to the large scale nature of the problem, solving the problem to obtain optimal solution in a reasonable time is infeasible, Paretoant colony optimization (P-ACO) approach for solving the multiobjective problem in reasonable time is developed. Experimental results indicate effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for solving the problem.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, Production planning, Machine tool selection, Operation allocation, Multiobjective optimization, Metaheuristic.

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Authors: A. T. M. Shahjahan, M. D. Kamrul Islam, Saikat Mitra, Kutub Uddin Chisty

Abstract:

Due to rapid pressured of population growth, city has started to lose its old tradition. City becomes congested with uncomfortably living. Urban renewal refers orderly development of settlements as well as land redevelopment. For this paper Chittagong city has been selected as study area. It had a great tradition but it has been losing its concord. Land use pattern of this place is also haphazard due to lack of planning intervention. Renewal plan is needed to ascertain suitable redevelopment and to recommend on preservation of city heritage structure. The goal of this study is to prepare a renewal plan using local planning approach. Social impact methods have been used to achieve this goal. Both primary and secondary data are used to achieve the goal. This study may find out a complete solution for healthy living in old Part of city. This study will help to preserve its tradition and makes urban lives more livable.

Keywords: Renewal Plan, Social Impact.

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Authors: Rahma Souli-Jbali, Minyar Sassi Hidri, Rahma Ben Ayed

Abstract:

Grid of computing nodes has emerged as a representative means of connecting distributed computers or resources scattered all over the world for the purpose of computing and distributed storage. Since fault tolerance becomes complex due to the availability of resources in decentralized grid environment, it can be used in connection with replication in data grids. The objective of our work is to present fault tolerance in data grids with data replication-driven model based on clustering. The performance of the protocol is evaluated with Omnet++ simulator. The computational results show the efficiency of our protocol in terms of recovery time and the number of process in rollbacks.

Keywords: Data grids, fault tolerance, chandy-lamport, clustering.

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Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

Abstract:

The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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Authors: M. Vivodík, Ž. Balážová, Z. Gálová

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The aim of this work was to detect genetic variability among the set of 40 castor genotypes using 8 RAPD markers. Amplification of genomic DNA of 40 genotypes, using RAPD analysis, yielded in 66 fragments, with an average of 8.25 polymorphic fragments per primer. Number of amplified fragments ranged from 3 to 13, with the size of amplicons ranging from 100 to 1200 bp. Values of the polymorphic information content (PIC) value ranged from 0.556 to 0.895 with an average of 0.784 and diversity index (DI) value ranged from 0.621 to 0.896 with an average of 0.798. The dendrogram based on hierarchical cluster analysis using UPGMA algorithm was prepared and analyzed genotypes were grouped into two main clusters and only two genotypes could not be distinguished. Knowledge on the genetic diversity of castor can be used for future breeding programs for increased oil production for industrial uses.

Keywords: Dendrogram, polymorphism, RAPD technique, Ricinus communis L.

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Authors: Salam K. Al-Nasri, SM Holmes

Abstract:

Composite of Celatom-ZeoliteY (Cel-ZY) was used to remove cobalt ion from an aqueous solution using batch mode. ZeoliteY has successfully superimposed on Celatom FW-14 surface using hydrothermal treatment .The product was synthesized as a novel of hierarchical porous material. It was observed from the results that Cel-ZY has higher ability to remove cobalt ions than the pure ZeoliteY powder (PZY) synthesized under the same conditions. Several parameters were studied in this project to investigate the effect of removal cobalt ion such as pH and initial cobalt concentration. It was clearly observed that the uptake of cobalt ions was affected with increase these parameters. The results proved that the product can be used effectively to remove Co2+ ions from wastewater as an environmentally friendly alternative.

Keywords: Adsorption, Celatom-Zeolite, Cobalt ions, Isotherm models.

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Authors: Lubna Shaheen

Abstract:

Palestinian cities face the challenges of land scarcity, high population growth rates, rapid urbanization, uneven development and territorial fragmentation. Due to geopolitical constrains and the absence of an effective Palestinian planning institution, urban development in Palestinian cities has not followed any discernable planning scheme. This has led to a number of internal contradictions in the structure of cities, and adversely affected land use, the provision of urban services, and the quality of the living environment. This paper explores these challenges, and the potential that exists for introducing a more sustainable urban development pattern in Palestinian cities. It assesses alternative development approaches with a particular focus on sustainable development, promoting ecodevelopment imperatives, limiting random urbanization, and meeting present and future challenges, including fulfilling the needs of the people and conserving the scarce land and limited natural resources. This paper concludes by offering conceptual proposals and guidelines for promoting sustainable physical development in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: Palestinian Cities, Rapid urbanization, Sustainableurban development.

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Yong-Jun Kim, Jung-In Baik, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In this paper, a dual-hop relay based on channel state is studied. In the conventional relay scheme, a relay uses the same modulation method without reference to channel state. But, a relay uses an adaptive modulation method with reference to channel state. If the channel state is poor, a relay eliminates latter 2 bits and uses Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK) modulation. If channel state is good, a relay modulates the received symbols with 16-QAM symbols by using 4 bits. The performance of the proposed scheme for Symbol Error Rate (SER) and throughput is analyzed.

Keywords: Adaptive transmission, channel state, dual-hop, hierarchical modulation, relay.

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Authors: Sami Mustafa M. E. Ahmed, Noor Amila Wan Abdullah Zawawi, Zulkipli B. Ghazali

Abstract:

Construction industry is considered as one of the main contributor of natural resources depletion, responsible for high level pollution and it is one of the attributes that pose climate changes and other environmental threats. A lot of efforts had and have been done to reduce and control these impacts. Project Environmental Management (PEM) includes the processes required to ensure that the impacts of the project execution to the surrounding environment will remain within the limits stated in legal permits. The main aim of most of researches conducted managing Environmental Impacts (EI) is to protect earth planet from pollution. Those researches are presenting four major environmental elements; Environmental Management Systems (EMS), Environmental Design (ED), Environmental Planning (EP) and Environmental Impacts Assessments (EIA). Although everything has been said about environmental management for construction projects, but almost everything remains to be said and therefore to be explored or rediscovered because incontestably, almost everything remains to be done. This paper aimed at reviewing some of what has been said about PEM. Also one of its objectives is to explore and rediscover the whole view of managing the EI problems by proposing a framework that based on the relation between these environmental researches.

Keywords: Environmental planning, sustainable design, EIA and EMS.

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Authors: Ishani Pruthi, William Burch Jr

Abstract:

The concept of sacred and nature have long been interlinked. Various cultural aspects such as religion, faith, traditions bring people closer to nature and the natural environment. Memorial Parks and Sacred Groves are examples of two such cultural landscapes that exist today. The project mainly deals with the significance of such sites to the environment and the deep rooted significance it has to the people. These parks and groves play an important role in biodiversity conservation and environmental protection. There are many differences between the establishment of memorial parks and sacred groves, but the underlying significance is the same. Sentiments, emotions play an important role in landscape planning and management. Hence the people and communities living at these sites need to be involved in any planning activity or decisions. The conservation of the environment should appeal to the sentiments of the people; the need to be 'with nature' should be used in the setting up of memorial forests and in the preservation of sacred groves.

Keywords: Sacred groves, memorial forests, community based natural resource management.

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Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Kevin Lynch, Mark Johnson

Abstract:

The goal of the Libyan Environmental General Authority (EGA) and National Oil Corporation (Department of Health, Safety & Environment) during the last 5 years has been to adopt a common approach to coastal and marine spatial planning. Protection and planning of the coastal zone is a significant for Libya, due to the length of coast and, the high rate of oil export, and spills’ potential negative impacts on coastal and marine habitats. Coastal resource scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term and short-term consequences of oil spill impact and available response options that would provide an integrated perspective on mitigation. To investigate that, this paper reviews the Misratah coastal parameters to present the physical and human controls and attributes of coastal habitats as the first step in understanding how they may be damaged by an oil spill. This paper also investigates costal resources, providing a better understanding of the resources and factors that impact the integrity of the ecosystem. Therefore, the study described the potential spatial distribution of oil spill risk and the coastal resources value, and also created spatial maps of coastal resources and their vulnerability to oil spills along the coast. This study proposes an analysis of coastal resources condition at a local level in the Misratah region of the Mediterranean Sea, considering the implementation of coastal and marine spatial planning over time as an indication of the will to manage urban development. Oil spill contamination analysis and their impact on the coastal resources depend on (1) oil spill sequence, (2) oil spill location, (3) oil spill movement near the coastal area. The resulting maps show natural, socio-economic activity, environmental resources along of the coast, and oil spill location. Moreover, the study provides significant geodatabase information which is required for coastal sensitivity index mapping and coastal management studies. The outcome of study provides the information necessary to set an Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the Misratah shoreline, which can be used for management of coastal resources and setting boundaries for each coastal sensitivity sectors, as well as to help planners measure the impact of oil spills on coastal resources. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used in order to store and illustrate the spatial convergence of existing socio-economic activities such as fishing, tourism, and the salt industry, and ecosystem components such as sea turtle nesting area, Sabkha habitats, and migratory birds feeding sites. These geodatabases help planners investigate the vulnerability of coastal resources to an oil spill.

Keywords: Coastal and marine spatial planning advancement training, GIS mapping, human uses, ecosystem components, Misratah coast, Libyan, oil spill.

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Authors: Esra E. Aleisa

Abstract:

A local municipality has decided to build a sewage pit to receive residential sewage waste arriving by tank trucks. Daily accumulated waste are to be pumped to a nearby waste water treatment facility to be re-consumed for agricultural and construction projects. A discrete-event simulation model using Arena Software was constructed to assist in defining the capacity of the system in cubic meters, number of tank trucks to use the system, number of unload docks required, number of standby areas needed and manpower required for data collection at entrance checkpoint and truck tank load toxicity testing. The results of the model are statistically validated. Simulation turned out to be an excellent tool in the facility planning effort for the pit project, as it insured smooth flow lines of tank trucks load discharge and best utilization of facilities on site.

Keywords: Discrete-event simulation, Facilities Planning, Layout, Pit, Sewage management.

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Authors: Alka Obadić

Abstract:

The research concentrates on the role of tourism in generating female employment and on impact of gender discrimination in tourism sector. Unfortunately, in many countries there are still some barriers to the inclusion of women at all hierarchical levels of tourism labor market. Research analysis focuses on EU countries where tourism is a main employer of women. The analysis shows that women represent over third persons employed in the non-financial business economy and almost two thirds in core tourism activities. Women's gross hourly earnings in accommodation and food services were below those of men in the European Union and only countries who recorded increase of gender pay gap from the beginning of crisis are Bulgaria and Croatia. Women in tourism industry are still overrepresented in lower status jobs with fewer opportunities for career progression and are often treated unequally.

Keywords: Employment, gender discrimination, tourism, women’s participation.

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Authors: Q. Han, W. Schaefer, R. van den Berg

Abstract:

This paper deals with stakeholders’ decisions within energy neutral urban redevelopment processes. The decisions of these stakeholders during the process will make or break energy neutral ambitions. An extensive form of game theory model gave insight in the behavioral differences of stakeholders regarding energy neutral ambitions and the effects of the changing legislation. The results show that new legislation regarding spatial planning slightly influences the behavior of stakeholders. An active behavior of the municipality will still result in the best outcome. Nevertheless, the municipality becomes more powerful when acting passively and can make the use of planning tools to provide governance towards energy neutral urban redevelopment. Moreover, organizational support, recognizing the necessity for energy neutrality, keeping focused and collaboration among stakeholders are crucial elements to achieve the objective of an energy neutral urban (re)development.

Keywords: Energy neutrality urban (re)development, stakeholder behavior, legislation, game theory.

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Authors: R. Tandlich, S. Hoossein, K. A. Tagwira, M. M. Marais, T. A. Ludwig, R. P. Chidziva, M. N. Munodawafa, W. M. Wrench

Abstract:

Response to the public health-related emergencies is analysed here for a rural university in South Africa. The structure of the designated emergency plan covers all the phases of the disaster management cycle. The plan contains elements of the vulnerability model and the technocratic model of emergency management. The response structures are vertically and horizontally integrated, while the planning contains elements of scenario-based and functional planning. The available number of medical professionals at the Rhodes University, along with the medical insurance rates, makes the staff and students potentially more medically vulnerable than the South African population. The main improvements of the emergency management are required in the tornado response and the information dissemination during health emergencies. The latter should involve the increased use of social media and e-mails, following the Taylor model of communication. Infrastructure must be improved in the telecommunication sector in the face of unpredictable electricity outages.

Keywords: Public health, Rural university, Taylor model of communication.

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Authors: Ae Hee Park, So Hyun Park, Hee Yong Youn

Abstract:

Multi-agent system is composed by several agents capable of reaching the goal cooperatively. The system needs an agent platform for efficient and stable interaction between intelligent agents. In this paper we propose a flexible and scalable agent platform by composing the containers with multiple hierarchical agent groups. It also allows efficient implementation of multiple domain presentations of the agents unlike JADE. The proposed platform provides both group management and individual management of agents for efficiency. The platform has been implemented and tested, and it can be used as a flexible foundation of the dynamic multi-agent system targeting seamless delivery of ubiquitous services.

Keywords: Agent platform, container, multi-agent system, services, ubiquitous computing

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Authors: Xinyan Zhang, Zhipeng Tan, Shan Fan

Abstract:

The first layer of defense against data loss is the backup data. This paper implements an agent-based network backup system used the backup, server-storage and server-backup agent these tripartite construction, and the snapshot and hierarchical index are used in the NSBS. It realizes the control command and data flow separation, balances the system load, thereby improving efficiency of the system backup and recovery. The test results show the agent-based network backup system can effectively improve the task-based concurrency, reasonably allocate network bandwidth, the system backup performance loss costs smaller and improves data recovery efficiency by 20%.

Keywords: Agent, network backup system, three architecture model, NSBS.

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Authors: Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova

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A method of effective planning and control of industrial facility energy consumption is offered. The method allows optimally arranging the management and full control of complex production facilities in accordance with the criteria of minimal technical and economic losses at the forecasting control. The method is based on the optimal construction of the power efficiency characteristics with the prescribed accuracy. The problem of optimal designing of the forecasting model is solved on the basis of three criteria: maximizing the weighted sum of the points of forecasting with the prescribed accuracy; the solving of the problem by the standard principles at the incomplete statistic data on the basis of minimization of the regularized function; minimizing the technical and economic losses due to the forecasting errors.

Keywords: Energy consumption, energy efficiency, energy management system, forecasting model, power efficiency characteristics.

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Authors: Karin Hansson, Göran Cars, Mats Danielson, Love Ekenberg, Aron Larsson

Abstract:

Within the realm of e-government, the development has moved towards testing new means for democratic decisionmaking, like e-panels, electronic discussion forums, and polls. Although such new developments seem promising, they are not problem-free, and the outcomes are seldom used in the subsequent formal political procedures. Nevertheless, process models offer promising potential when it comes to structuring and supporting transparency of decision processes in order to facilitate the integration of the public into decision-making procedures in a reasonable and manageable way. Based on real-life cases of urban planning processes in Sweden, we present an outline for an integrated framework for public decision making to: a) provide tools for citizens to organize discussion and create opinions; b) enable governments, authorities, and institutions to better analyse these opinions; and c) enable governments to account for this information in planning and societal decision making by employing a process model for structured public decision making.

Keywords: Negotiation games, Agenda setting, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Elicitation method.

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Authors: Amit Gil, Helman Stern, Yael Edan

Abstract:

A cognitive collaborative reinforcement learning algorithm (CCRL) that incorporates an advisor into the learning process is developed to improve supervised learning. An autonomous learner is enabled with a self awareness cognitive skill to decide when to solicit instructions from the advisor. The learner can also assess the value of advice, and accept or reject it. The method is evaluated for robotic motion planning using simulation. Tests are conducted for advisors with skill levels from expert to novice. The CCRL algorithm and a combined method integrating its logic with Clouse-s Introspection Approach, outperformed a base-line fully autonomous learner, and demonstrated robust performance when dealing with various advisor skill levels, learning to accept advice received from an expert, while rejecting that of less skilled collaborators. Although the CCRL algorithm is based on RL, it fits other machine learning methods, since advisor-s actions are only added to the outer layer.

Keywords: Robot learning, human-robot collaboration, motion planning, reinforcement learning.

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Authors: PeiWen Liao, Tsung Hau Jen

Abstract:

This study was conducted to explore the effects of two countries model comparison program in Taiwan and Singapore in TIMSS database. The researchers used Multi-Group Hierarchical Linear Modeling techniques to compare the effects of two different country models and we tested our hypotheses on 4,046 Taiwan students and 4,599 Singapore students in 2007 at two levels: the class level and student (individual) level. Design quality is a class level variable. Student level variables are achievement and self-confidence. The results challenge the widely held view that retention has a positive impact on self-confidence. Suggestions for future research are discussed.

Keywords: Teaching approach, self-confidence, achievement, multi-group HLM.

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Authors: Zarabizan Zakaria, Syuhaida Ismail, Aminah Md. Yusof

Abstract:

Delay can be defined as time overrun or extension of time to complete the project. There are high possibilities that delay issues in final account closing cannot be avoided especially in construction project in Malaysia which is unique and dynamic in the terms of nature of design and technical skill. Delay in final account closing is a situation when the actual planning (time and budget allocation) of a construction project exceeds the planned schedule or on the other hand, final account closing exceeds the time and other provisions specified in the contract. The causes of delay discussed in this paper are appraised from the literature review. There are two main types of delay: excusable delay and non-excusable delay. The literature reviews on the delay in final account closing which is then translated into a theoretical framework are summarized in the context of construction players and academician perspective. It is anticipated that the finding reported in this paper could assist the planning of future strategies and guidelines of final account closing for the betterment of construction projects in Malaysia.

Keywords: Construction industry, construction contract, final account closing, delay.

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Authors: Tunjo Peric, Zoran Babic

Abstract:

The authors of this work indicate by means of a concrete example that it is possible to apply efficaciously the method of multiple criteria programming in dealing with the problem of determining the optimal production plan for a certain period of time. The work presents: (1) the selection of optimization criteria, (2) the setting of the problem of determining an optimal production plan, (3) the setting of the model of multiple criteria programming in finding a solution to a given problem, (4) the revised surrogate trade-off method, (5) generalized multicriteria model for solving production planning problem and problem of choosing technological variants in the metal manufacturing industry. In the final part of this work the authors reflect on the application of the method of multiple criteria programming while determining the optimal production plan in manufacturing enterprises.

Keywords: multi-criteria programming, production planning, technological variant, Surrogate Worth Trade-off Method.

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Authors: Zone-Ching Lin, Hao-Yuan Jheng, Shih-Hung Ma

Abstract:

The present paper proposes using atomic force microscopy (AFM) and the concept of specific down force energy (SDFE) to establish a method for fabricating and cutting the burr for Y shape nanochannel on silicon (Si) substrate. For fabricating Y shape nanochannel, it first makes the experimental cutting path planning for fabricating Y shape nanochannel until the fifth cutting layer. Using the constant down force by AFM and SDFE theory and following the experimental cutting path planning, the cutting depth and width of each pass of Y shape nanochannel can be predicted by simulation. The paper plans the path for cutting the burr at the edge of Y shape nanochannel. Then, it carries out cutting the burr along the Y nanochannel edge by using a smaller down force. The height of standing burr at the edge is required to be below the set value of 0.54 nm. The results of simulation and experiment of fabricating and cutting the burr for Y shape nanochannel is further compared.

Keywords: Atomic force microscopy, nanochannel, specific down force energy, Y shape, burr, silicon.

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Authors: Chiung-En Huang, Cheng-Yu Tsai, Shane-Chung Lee

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This study aim at the influence of college students’ exercise and leisure motivations on the leisure benefits while using the leisure involvement as a moderator. Whereby, the research tools used in this study included the application of leisure motivation scale, leisure involvement scale and leisure benefits scale, and a hierarchical regression analysis was performed by using a questionnaire-based survey, in which, a total of 1,500 copies of questionnaires were administered and 917 valid questionnaires were obtained, achieving a response rate of 61.13%. Research findings explore that leisure involvement has a moderating effect on the relationship between the leisure motivation and leisure benefits.

Keywords: Leisure motivation, leisure involvement, leisure benefits, moderator.

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Authors: Dubbale Daniel A., Tsutsumi J.

Abstract:

This research work takes a different approach in the discussion of urban form impacts on transport planning and auto dependency. Concentrated density represented by effective density explains auto dependency better than the conventional density and it is proved to be a realistic density representative for the urban transportation analysis. Model analysis reveals that effective density is influenced by the shopping accessibility index as well as job density factor. It is also combined with the job access variable to classify four levels of Transport Activity Centers (TACs) in Okinawa, Japan. Trip attraction capacity and levels of the newly classified TACs was found agreeable with the amount of daily trips attracted to each center. The trip attraction data set was drawn from a 2007 Okinawa personal trip survey. This research suggests a planning methodology which guides logical transport supply routes and concentrated local development schemes.

Keywords: Effective density, urban form, auto-dependency, transport activity centers

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Authors: Mediha B. Sılaydın Aydın, Emine D. Kahraman

Abstract:

One of the important impacts of climate change is the sea level rise. Turkey is a peninsula, so the coastal areas of the country are threatened by the problem of sea level rise. Therefore, the urbanized coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change. At the aim of enhancing spatial resilience of urbanized areas, this question arises: What should be the priority intervention subject in the urban planning process for a given city. To answer this question, by focusing on the problem of sea level rise, this study aims to determine spatial vulnerability typologies and levels of Turkey coastal cities based on morphological, physical and social characteristics. As a method, spatial vulnerability of coastal cities is determined by two steps as level and type. Firstly, physical structure, morphological structure and social structure were examined in determining spatial vulnerability levels. By determining these levels, most vulnerable areas were revealed as a priority in adaptation studies. Secondly, all parameters are also used to determine spatial typologies. Typologies are determined for coastal cities in order to use as a base for urban planning studies. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for developing countries like Turkey so, this methodology and created typologies could be a guide for urban planners as spatial directors and an example for other developing countries in the context of adaptation to climate change. The results demonstrate that the urban settlements located on the coasts of the Marmara Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean respectively, are more vulnerable than the cities located on the Black Sea’s coasts to sea level rise.

Keywords: Climate change, coastal cities, sea level rise, urban land use planning, vulnerability.

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Authors: Ebru Aktepe Erkoç, Atilla Uluğ

Abstract:

In this research which has been prepared to show the relationship between Gökova Bay’s morphotectonic structure and seismicity, it is clear that there are many active faults in the region. The existence of a thick sedimentary accumulation since Late Quaternary times is obvious as a result of the geophysical workings in the region and the interpretation of seismic data which has been planning to be taken from the Bay. In the regions which have been tectonically active according to the interpretation of the taken data, the existence of the successive earthquakes in the last few years is remarkable. By analyzing large earthquakes affecting the areas remaining inside the sediments in West Anatolian Collapse System, this paper aims to reveal the fault systems constituting earthquakes with the information obtained from this study and to determine seismicity of the present residential areas right next to them. It is also aimed to anticipate the measures to be taken against possible earthquake hazards, to identify these areas posing a risk in terms of residential and urban planning and to determine at least partly the characteristics of the basin.

Keywords: Gökova Bay, seismic, sedimentation, West Anatolian Region.

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