Search results for: Decision making
1613 Calcification Classification in Mammograms Using Decision Trees
Authors: S. Usha, S. Arumugam
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Cancer affects people globally with breast cancer being a leading killer. Breast cancer is due to the uncontrollable multiplication of cells resulting in a tumour or neoplasm. Tumours are called ‘benign’ when cancerous cells do not ravage other body tissues and ‘malignant’ if they do so. As mammography is an effective breast cancer detection tool at an early stage which is the most treatable stage it is the primary imaging modality for screening and diagnosis of this cancer type. This paper presents an automatic mammogram classification technique using wavelet and Gabor filter. Correlation feature selection is used to reduce the feature set and selected features are classified using different decision trees.
Keywords: Breast Cancer, Mammogram, Symlet Wavelets, Gabor Filters, Decision Trees
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17511612 Experience of the Formation of Professional Competence of Students of IT – Specialties
Authors: B. I. Zhumagaliyev, L. Sh. Balgabayeva, G. S. Nabiyeva, B. A. Tulegenova, P. Oralkhan, B. S. Kalenova, S. S. Akhmetov
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The article describes an approach to build competence in research of Bachelor and Master, which is now an important feature of modern specialist in the field of engineering. We provide an example of methodical teaching methods with the research aspect, including the formulation of the problem, the method of conducting experiments, analysis of the results. Implementation of methods allows the student to better consolidate their knowledge and skills at the same time to get research. Knowledge on the part of the media requires some training in the subject area and teaching methods.
Keywords: Professional competence, its model–specialties, teaching methods, educational technology, decision making.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15841611 Life Cycle Assessment as a Decision Making for Window Performance Comparison in Green Building Design
Authors: Ghada Elshafei, Abdelazim Negm
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Life cycle assessment is a technique to assess the environmental aspects and potential impacts associated with a product, process, or service, by compiling an inventory of relevant energy and material inputs and environmental releases; evaluating the potential environmental impacts associated with identified inputs and releases; and interpreting the results to help you make a more informed decision. In this paper, the life cycle assessment of aluminum and beech wood as two commonly used materials in Egypt for window frames are heading, highlighting their benefits and weaknesses. Window frames of the two materials have been assessed on the basis of their production, energy consumption and environmental impacts. It has been found that the climate change of the windows made of aluminum and beech wood window, for a reference window (1.2m×1.2m), are 81.7 mPt and -52.5 mPt impacts respectively. Among the most important results are: fossil fuel consumption, potential contributions to the green building effect and quantities of solid waste tend to be minor for wood products compared to aluminum products; incineration of wood products can cause higher impacts of acidification and eutrophication than aluminum, whereas thermal energy can be recovered.Keywords: Aluminum window, beech wood window, green building, life cycle assessment, life cycle analysis, SimaPro software, window frame.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32901610 Decision Support System for Solving Multi-Objective Routing Problem
Authors: Ismail El Gayar, Ossama Ismail, Yousri El Gamal
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This paper presented a technique to solve one of the transportation problems that faces us in real life which is the Bus Scheduling Problem. Most of the countries using buses in schools, companies and traveling offices as an example to transfer multiple passengers from many places to specific place and vice versa. This transferring process can cost time and money, so we build a decision support system that can solve this problem. In this paper, a genetic algorithm with the shortest path technique is used to generate a competitive solution to other well-known techniques. It also presents a comparison between our solution and other solutions for this problem.
Keywords: Bus scheduling problem, decision support system, genetic algorithm, operation planning, shortest path, transportation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15321609 Quality Function Deployment Application in Sewer Pipeline Assessment
Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Tarek Zayed
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Infrastructure assets are essential in urban cities; their purpose is to facilitate the public needs. As a result, their conditions and states shall always be monitored to avoid any sudden malfunction. Sewer systems, one of the assets, are an essential part of the underground infrastructure as they transfer sewer medium to designated areas. However, their conditions are subject to deterioration due to ageing. Therefore, it is of great significance to assess the conditions of pipelines to avoid sudden collapses. Current practices of sewer pipeline assessment rely on industrial protocols that consider distinct defects and grades to conclude the limited average or peak score of the assessed assets. This research aims to enhance the evaluation by integrating the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methods in assessing the condition of sewer pipelines. The methodology shall study the cause and effect relationship of the systems’ defects to deduce the relative influence weights of each defect. Subsequently, the overall grade is calculated by aggregating the WHAT’s and HOW’s of the House of Quality (HOQ) using the computed relative weights. Thus, this study shall enhance the evaluation of the assets to conclude informative rehabilitation and maintenance plans for decision makers.
Keywords: Condition assessment, DEMATEL, QFD, sewer pipelines.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8281608 Selection of Material for Gear Used in Fuel Pump Using Graph Theory and Matrix Approach
Authors: Sahil, Rajeev Saha, Sanjeev Kumar
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Material selection is one of the key issues for the production of reliable and quality products in industries. A number of materials are available for a single product due to which material selection become a difficult task. The aim of this paper is to select appropriate material for gear used in fuel pump by using Graph Theory and Matrix Approach (GTMA). GTMA is a logical and systematic approach that can be used to model and analyze various engineering systems. In present work, four alternative material and their seven attributes are used to identify the best material for given product.
Keywords: Material, GTMA, MADM, digraph, decision making.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10301607 Comparative Study of Decision Trees and Rough Sets Theory as Knowledge ExtractionTools for Design and Control of Industrial Processes
Authors: Marcin Perzyk, Artur Soroczynski
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General requirements for knowledge representation in the form of logic rules, applicable to design and control of industrial processes, are formulated. Characteristic behavior of decision trees (DTs) and rough sets theory (RST) in rules extraction from recorded data is discussed and illustrated with simple examples. The significance of the models- drawbacks was evaluated, using simulated and industrial data sets. It is concluded that performance of DTs may be considerably poorer in several important aspects, compared to RST, particularly when not only a characterization of a problem is required, but also detailed and precise rules are needed, according to actual, specific problems to be solved.Keywords: Knowledge extraction, decision trees, rough setstheory, industrial processes.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16341606 Decision Trees for Predicting Risk of Mortality using Routinely Collected Data
Authors: Tessy Badriyah, Jim S. Briggs, Dave R. Prytherch
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It is well known that Logistic Regression is the gold standard method for predicting clinical outcome, especially predicting risk of mortality. In this paper, the Decision Tree method has been proposed to solve specific problems that commonly use Logistic Regression as a solution. The Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (BHOM) dataset obtained from Portsmouth NHS Hospital from 1 January to 31 December 2001 was divided into four subsets. One subset of training data was used to generate a model, and the model obtained was then applied to three testing datasets. The performance of each model from both methods was then compared using calibration (the χ2 test or chi-test) and discrimination (area under ROC curve or c-index). The experiment presented that both methods have reasonable results in the case of the c-index. However, in some cases the calibration value (χ2) obtained quite a high result. After conducting experiments and investigating the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we can conclude that Decision Trees can be seen as a worthy alternative to Logistic Regression in the area of Data Mining.Keywords: Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, clinical outcome, risk of mortality.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25241605 Decision Rule Induction in a Learning Content Management System
Authors: Nittaya Kerdprasop, Narin Muenrat, Kittisak Kerdprasop
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A learning content management system (LCMS) is an environment to support web-based learning content development. Primary function of the system is to manage the learning process as well as to generate content customized to meet a unique requirement of each learner. Among the available supporting tools offered by several vendors, we propose to enhance the LCMS functionality to individualize the presented content with the induction ability. Our induction technique is based on rough set theory. The induced rules are intended to be the supportive knowledge for guiding the content flow planning. They can also be used as decision rules to help content developers on managing content delivered to individual learner.Keywords: Decision rules, Knowledge induction, Learning content management system, Rough set.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15681604 A Group Based Fuzzy MCDM for Selecting Knowledge Portal System
Authors: Amir Sanayei, Seyed Farid Mousavi, Catherine Asadi Shahmirzadi
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Despite of many scholars and practitioners recognize the knowledge management implementation in an organizations but insufficient attention has been paid by researchers to select suitable knowledge portal system (KPS) selection. This study develops a Multi Criteria Decision making model based on the fuzzy VIKOR approach to help organizations in selecting KPS. The suitable portal is the critical influential factors on the success of knowledge management (KM) implementation in an organization.Keywords: Knowledge management, Knowledge portal system, Fuzzy VIKOR.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18431603 A Two-Stage Expert System for Diagnosis of Leukemia Based on Type-2 Fuzzy Logic
Authors: Ali Akbar Sadat Asl
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Diagnosis and deciding about diseases in medical fields is facing innate uncertainty which can affect the whole process of treatment. This decision is made based on expert knowledge and the way in which an expert interprets the patient's condition, and the interpretation of the various experts from the patient's condition may be different. Fuzzy logic can provide mathematical modeling for many concepts, variables, and systems that are unclear and ambiguous and also it can provide a framework for reasoning, inference, control, and decision making in conditions of uncertainty. In systems with high uncertainty and high complexity, fuzzy logic is a suitable method for modeling. In this paper, we use type-2 fuzzy logic for uncertainty modeling that is in diagnosis of leukemia. The proposed system uses an indirect-direct approach and consists of two stages: In the first stage, the inference of blood test state is determined. In this step, we use an indirect approach where the rules are extracted automatically by implementing a clustering approach. In the second stage, signs of leukemia, duration of disease until its progress and the output of the first stage are combined and the final diagnosis of the system is obtained. In this stage, the system uses a direct approach and final diagnosis is determined by the expert. The obtained results show that the type-2 fuzzy expert system can diagnose leukemia with the average accuracy about 97%.
Keywords: Expert system, leukemia, medical diagnosis, type-2 fuzzy logic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10561602 Emotional Learning based Intelligent Robust Adaptive Controller for Stable Uncertain Nonlinear Systems
Authors: Ali Reza Mehrabian, Caro Lucas
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In this paper a new control strategy based on Brain Emotional Learning (BEL) model has been introduced. A modified BEL model has been proposed to increase the degree of freedom, controlling capability, reliability and robustness, which can be implemented in real engineering systems. The performance of the proposed BEL controller has been illustrated by applying it on different nonlinear uncertain systems, showing very good adaptability and robustness, while maintaining stability.Keywords: Learning control systems, emotional decision making, nonlinear systems, adaptive control.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20931601 Agricultural Commodities Volatility in Some Selected Markets in the Northern and Western States in Nigeria
Authors: T. Danjuma, N. M. Ike-Muonso, H. C. Chinwenyi
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The price volatility of agricultural commodities in Nigeria market is very essential and understanding its future evolution is important for informed decision making to policymakers. In this paper, we examined the volatilities of some agricultural commodities such as maize (white), cowpeas (brown) and sorghum (white) in Mubi and Dawanau markets in the Northern part of the country and compared its volatilities with the same agricultural commodities from Lagos and Ibadan markets in the Western part of Nigeria.
Keywords: Agricultural commodity, agricultural market, derivatives, volatility, price.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 591600 Methodologies for Management of Sustainable Tourism: A Case Study in Jalapão/Tocantins/Brazil
Authors: Mary L. G. S. Senna, Veruska C. Dutra, Afonso R. Aquino
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The study is in application and analysis of two tourism management tools that can contribute to making public managers decision: the Barometer of Tourism Sustainability (BTS) and the Ecological Footprint (EF). The results have shown that BTS allows you to have an integrated view of the tourism system, awakening to the need for planning of appropriate actions so that it can achieve the positive scale proposed (potentially sustainable). Already the methodology of ecological tourism footprint is an important tool to measure potential impacts generated by tourism to tourist reality.Keywords: Barometer of tourism sustainability, ecological footprint of tourism, Jalapão/Brazil, sustainable tourism.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 48391599 Proposal for a Model of Economic Integration for the Development of Industry in Cabinda, Angola
Authors: T. H. Bitebe, T. M. Lima, F. Charrua-Santos, C. J. Matias Oliveira
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This study aims to present a proposal for an economic integration model for the development of the manufacturing industry in Cabinda, Angola. It seeks to analyze the degree of economic integration of Cabinda and the dynamics of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, in the same way, to gather information to support the decision-making for public financing programs that will aim at the disengagement of the manufacturing industry in Angola and Cabinda in particular. The Cabinda Province is the 18th of Angola, the enclave is located in a privileged area of the African and arable land.
Keywords: Economic integration, industrial development, Cabinda industry, Angola.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8851598 ICT for Social Networking in Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies- An MCDA Approach
Authors: Avelino Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov, Xavier Muianga
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This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.
Keywords: ICT, KM, scenario planning, backcasting and flood risk management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29281597 Adaptation of Iterative Methods to Solve Fuzzy Mathematical Programming Problems
Authors: Ricardo C. Silva, Luiza A. P. Cantao, Akebo Yamakami
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Based on the fuzzy set theory this work develops two adaptations of iterative methods that solve mathematical programming problems with uncertainties in the objective function and in the set of constraints. The first one uses the approach proposed by Zimmermann to fuzzy linear programming problems as a basis and the second one obtains cut levels and later maximizes the membership function of fuzzy decision making using the bound search method. We outline similarities between the two iterative methods studied. Selected examples from the literature are presented to validate the efficiency of the methods addressed.Keywords: Fuzzy Theory, Nonlinear Optimization, Fuzzy Mathematics Programming.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16261596 Visual Text Analytics Technologies for Real-Time Big Data: Chronological Evolution and Issues
Authors: Siti Azrina B. A. Aziz, Siti Hafizah A. Hamid
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New approaches to analyze and visualize data stream in real-time basis is important in making a prompt decision by the decision maker. Financial market trading and surveillance, large-scale emergency response and crowd control are some example scenarios that require real-time analytic and data visualization. This situation has led to the development of techniques and tools that support humans in analyzing the source data. With the emergence of Big Data and social media, new techniques and tools are required in order to process the streaming data. Today, ranges of tools which implement some of these functionalities are available. In this paper, we present chronological evolution evaluation of technologies for supporting of real-time analytic and visualization of the data stream. Based on the past research papers published from 2002 to 2014, we gathered the general information, main techniques, challenges and open issues. The techniques for streaming text visualization are identified based on Text Visualization Browser in chronological order. This paper aims to review the evolution of streaming text visualization techniques and tools, as well as to discuss the problems and challenges for each of identified tools.Keywords: Information visualization, visual analytics, text mining, visual text analytics tools, big data visualization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10031595 Environmental Assessment Methods in Abu Dhabi
Authors: Huda Al Salmi, Hisham Al Kadi, Simone Leao
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Abu Dhabi is one of the fastest developed cities in the region. On top of all the current and future environmental challenges, Abu Dhabi aims to be among the top governments in the world in sustainable development. Abu Dhabi plans to create an attractive, livable and sustainable managed urban environment in which all necessary services and infrastructure are provided in a sustainable and timely manner. Abu Dhabi is engaged in a difficult challenge to develop credible environmental indicators that would assess the ambitious environmental targets. The aim of those indicators is to provide reliable guidance to decision makers and the public concerning key factors that determine the state of urban environment and identify major areas for policy intervention. In order to ensure sustainable development in UAE in general, and of Abu Dhabi City in particular, relevant and contextual environmental indicators need to be carefully considered. These indicators provide a gauge at a national government scale of how close countries are to establish environmental policy goals. The environment indicators assist city decision-making in such areas as identification of significant environmental aspects and observation of environmental performance trends. Those can help to find ways of reducing environmental pollution and in improving eco-efficiency. This paper outlines recent strategies implemented in Abu Dhabi that aims to improve the sustainable performance of the city-s built environment. The paper explores the variety of current and possible indicators at different levels and their roles in the development of the city.
Keywords: Abu Dhabi, Sustainable Development, Indicators, Assessment Methods.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27381594 Exploiting Self-Adaptive Replication Management on Decentralized Tuple Space
Authors: Xing Jiankuan, Qin Zheng, Zhang Jinxue
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Decentralized Tuple Space (DTS) implements tuple space model among a series of decentralized hosts and provides the logical global shared tuple repository. Replication has been introduced to promote performance problem incurred by remote tuple access. In this paper, we propose a replication approach of DTS allowing replication policies self-adapting. The accesses from users or other nodes are monitored and collected to contribute the decision making. The replication policy may be changed if the better performance is expected. The experiments show that this approach suitably adjusts the replication policies, which brings negligible overhead.Keywords: Decentralization, Replication Management, SelfAdaption, Tuple Space.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12181593 Behaviors and Factors Affecting the Selection of Spa Services among Consumers in Amphawa, Samut Songkhram, Thailand
Authors: Chutima Klaysung
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This research aims to study the factors that influence the decision to choose the spa service of consumers in Amphawa, Samut Songkhram, Thailand. The research method will use quantitative research; data were collected by questionnaires distributed to spa consumers, both female and male, aged between 20 years and 70 years in the Amphawa, Samut Songkhram area for 400 samples by convenience sampling method. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics including percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistics, including Pearson correlation for hypothesis testing. The results showed that the demographic variables including age, education, occupation, income and frequency of access to service spa were related to the decision to choose the spa service of consumers in Amphawa, Samut Songkhram. In addition, the researchers found the marketing mixed factors such as products, prices, places, promotion, personnel selling, physical evidence and processes were associated with the decision to choose the spa service of consumers in Amphawa, Samut Songkhram, Thailand.
Keywords: Consumers in Amphawa, Samut Songkhram, Thailand, decision to choose a spa service, marketing mixed factor, spa service.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21021592 Simulation Programs to Education of Crisis Management Members
Authors: Jiri Barta
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This paper deals with a simulation programs and technologies using in the educational process for members of the crisis management. Risk analysis, simulation, preparation and planning are among the main activities of workers of crisis management. Made correctly simulation of emergency defines the extent of the danger. On this basis, it is possible to effectively prepare and plan measures to minimize damage. The paper is focused on simulation programs that are trained at the University of Defence. Implementation of the outputs from simulation programs in decision-making processes of crisis staffs is one of the main tasks of the research project.
Keywords: Crisis Management, Continuity, Critical Infrastructure, Dangerous substance, Education, Flood, Simulation Programs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17331591 Competitiveness and Pricing Policy Assessment for Resilience Surface Access System at Airports
Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou
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Considering a worldwide tendency, air transports are growing very fast and many changes have taken place in planning, management and decision making process. Given the complexity of airport operation, the best use of existing capacity is the key driver of efficiency and productivity. This paper deals with the evaluation framework for the ground access at airports, by using a set of mode choice indicators providing key messages towards airport’s ground access performance. The application presents results for a sample of 12 European airports, illustrating recommendations to define policy and improve service for the air transport access chain.
Keywords: Air transport chain, airport ground access, airport access performance, airport policy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11321590 Reliability Factors Based Fuzzy Logic Scheme for Spectrum Sensing
Authors: Tallataf Rasheed, Adnan Rashdi, Ahmad Naeem Akhtar
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The accurate spectrum sensing is a fundamental requirement of dynamic spectrum access for deployment of Cognitive Radio Network (CRN). To acheive this requirement a Reliability factors based Fuzzy Logic (RFL) Scheme for Spectrum Sensing has been proposed in this paper. Cognitive Radio User (CRU) predicts the presence or absence of Primary User (PU) using energy detector and calculates the Reliability factors which are SNR of sensing node, threshold of energy detector and decision difference of each node with other nodes in a cooperative spectrum sensing environment. Then the decision of energy detector is combined with Reliability factors of sensing node using Fuzzy Logic. These Reliability Factors used in RFL Scheme describes the reliability of decision made by a CRU to improve the local spectrum sensing. This Fuzzy combining scheme provides the accuracy of decision made by sensornode. The simulation results have shown that the proposed technique provide better PU detection probability than existing Spectrum Sensing Techniques.Keywords: Cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, energy detector, reliability factors, fuzzy logic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10671589 Verification and Proposal of Information Processing Model Using EEG-Based Brain Activity Monitoring
Authors: Toshitaka Higashino, Naoki Wakamiya
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Human beings perform a task by perceiving information from outside, recognizing them, and responding them. There have been various attempts to analyze and understand internal processes behind the reaction to a given stimulus by conducting psychological experiments and analysis from multiple perspectives. Among these, we focused on Model Human Processor (MHP). However, it was built based on psychological experiments and thus the relation with brain activity was unclear so far. To verify the validity of the MHP and propose our model from a viewpoint of neuroscience, EEG (Electroencephalography) measurements are performed during experiments in this study. More specifically, first, experiments were conducted where Latin alphabet characters were used as visual stimuli. In addition to response time, ERPs (event-related potentials) such as N100 and P300 were measured by using EEG. By comparing cycle time predicted by the MHP and latency of ERPs, it was found that N100, related to perception of stimuli, appeared at the end of the perceptual processor. Furthermore, by conducting an additional experiment, it was revealed that P300, related to decision making, appeared during the response decision process, not at the end. Second, by experiments using Japanese Hiragana characters, i.e. Japan's own phonetic symbols, those findings were confirmed. Finally, Japanese Kanji characters were used as more complicated visual stimuli. A Kanji character usually has several readings and several meanings. Despite the difference, a reading-related task and a meaning-related task exhibited similar results, meaning that they involved similar information processing processes of the brain. Based on those results, our model was proposed which reflects response time and ERP latency. It consists of three processors: the perception processor from an input of a stimulus to appearance of N100, the cognitive processor from N100 to P300, and the decision-action processor from P300 to response. Using our model, an application system which reflects brain activity can be established.
Keywords: Brain activity, EEG, information processing model, model human processor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6911588 The Application of Real Options to Capital Budgeting
Authors: George Yungchih Wang
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Real options theory suggests that managerial flexibility embedded within irreversible investments can account for a significant value in project valuation. Although the argument has become the dominant focus of capital investment theory over decades, yet recent survey literature in capital budgeting indicates that corporate practitioners still do not explicitly apply real options in investment decisions. In this paper, we explore how real options decision criteria can be transformed into equivalent capital budgeting criteria under the consideration of uncertainty, assuming that underlying stochastic process follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), a mixed diffusion-jump (MX), or a mean-reverting process (MR). These equivalent valuation techniques can be readily decomposed into conventional investment rules and “option impacts", the latter of which describe the impacts on optimal investment rules with the option value considered. Based on numerical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, three major findings are derived. First, it is shown that real options could be successfully integrated into the mindset of conventional capital budgeting. Second, the inclusion of option impacts tends to delay investment. It is indicated that the delay effect is the most significant under a GBM process and the least significant under a MR process. Third, it is optimal to adopt the new capital budgeting criteria in investment decision-making and adopting a suboptimal investment rule without considering real options could lead to a substantial loss in value.
Keywords: real options, capital budgeting, geometric Brownianmotion, mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27741587 Granting Saudi Women the Right to Drive in the Eyes of Qatari Media
Authors: Rasha A. Salameh
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This research attempts to evaluate the treatment provided by the Qatari media to the decision to allow Saudi women to drive, and then activate this decision after a few months, that is, within the time frame between September 26, 2017 until June 30, 2018. This is through asking several questions, including whether the political dispute between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has cast a shadow over this handling, and if these Qatari media handlings are used to criticize the Saudi regime for delaying this step. Here emerges one of the research hypotheses that says that the coverage did not have the required professionalism, due to the fact that the decision and its activation took place in light of the political stalemate between Qatar and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which requires testing the media framing and agenda theories to know to what extent they apply to this case. The research dealt with a sample of five Qatari media read in this sample: Al-Jazeera Net, The New Arab Newspaper, Al-Sharq Newspaper, The Arab Newspaper, and Al-Watan Newspaper. The results showed that most of the authors who covered the decision to allow Saudi women to drive a car did not achieve a balance in their writing, and that almost half of them did not have objectivity, and this indicates the proof of the hypothesis that there is a defect in the professional competence in covering the decision to allow Saudi women to drive cars by means of Qatari media, and the researcher attributes this result to the political position between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, in addition to the fact that the Arab media in most of them are characterized by a low ceiling of freedom, and most of them are identical in their position with the position of the regime’s official view.
Keywords: Saudi women, stereotypes, hate speech, framing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7541586 The Use of S Curves in Technology Forecasting and its Application On 3D TV Technology
Authors: Gizem Intepe, Tufan Koc
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S-Curves are commonly used in technology forecasting. They show the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to describe the inflection points and the limit of improvement of a technology. Companies use this information to base their innovation strategies. However inadequate use and some limitations of this technique lead to problems in decision making. In this paper first technology forecasting and its importance for company level strategies will be discussed. Secondly the S-Curve and its place among other forecasting techniques will be introduced. Thirdly its use in technology forecasting will be discussed based on its advantages, disadvantages and limitations. Finally an application of S-curve on 3D TV technology using patent data will also be presented and the results will be discussed.Keywords: Patent analysis, Technological forecasting. S curves, 3D TV
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 77881585 A Novel Approach of Route Choice in Stochastic Time-varying Networks
Authors: Siliang Wang, Minghui Wang
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Many exist studies always use Markov decision processes (MDPs) in modeling optimal route choice in stochastic, time-varying networks. However, taking many variable traffic data and transforming them into optimal route decision is a computational challenge by employing MDPs in real transportation networks. In this paper we model finite horizon MDPs using directed hypergraphs. It is shown that the problem of route choice in stochastic, time-varying networks can be formulated as a minimum cost hyperpath problem, and it also can be solved in linear time. We finally demonstrate the significant computational advantages of the introduced methods.Keywords: Markov decision processes (MDPs), stochastictime-varying networks, hypergraphs, route choice.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15561584 Solving an Extended Resource Leveling Problem with Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms
Authors: Javier Roca, Etienne Pugnaghi, Gaëtan Libert
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We introduce an extended resource leveling model that abstracts real life projects that consider specific work ranges for each resource. Contrary to traditional resource leveling problems this model considers scarce resources and multiple objectives: the minimization of the project makespan and the leveling of each resource usage over time. We formulate this model as a multiobjective optimization problem and we propose a multiobjective genetic algorithm-based solver to optimize it. This solver consists in a two-stage process: a main stage where we obtain non-dominated solutions for all the objectives, and a postprocessing stage where we seek to specifically improve the resource leveling of these solutions. We propose an intelligent encoding for the solver that allows including domain specific knowledge in the solving mechanism. The chosen encoding proves to be effective to solve leveling problems with scarce resources and multiple objectives. The outcome of the proposed solvers represent optimized trade-offs (alternatives) that can be later evaluated by a decision maker, this multi-solution approach represents an advantage over the traditional single solution approach. We compare the proposed solver with state-of-art resource leveling methods and we report competitive and performing results.
Keywords: Intelligent problem encoding, multiobjective decision making, evolutionary computing, RCPSP, resource leveling.
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