Search results for: Data hiding

Authors: P. O. Umenne, Odhiambo Marcel O.

Abstract:

A simple network model is developed in OPNET to study the performance of the Wi-Fi protocol. The model is simulated in OPNET and performance factors such as load, throughput and delay are analysed from the model. Four applications such as oracle, http, ftp and voice are applied over the Wireless LAN network to determine the throughput. The voice application utilises a considerable amount of bandwidth of up to 5Mbps, as a result the 802.11g standard of the Wi-Fi protocol was chosen which can support a data rate of up to 54Mbps. Results indicate that when the load in the Wi-Fi network is increased the queuing delay on the point-to-point links in the Wi-Fi network significantly reduces until it is comparable to that of WiMAX. In conclusion, the queuing delay of the Wi-Fi protocol for the network model simulated was about 0.00001secs comparable to WiMAX network values.

Keywords: WLAN-Wireless Local Area Network, MIMO-Multiple Input Multiple Output, Queuing delay, Throughput, AP-Access Point, IP-Internet protocol, TOS-Type of Service.

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Authors: Abdur Rashid Sangi, Jianwei Liu, Zhiping Liu

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Mobile Ad Hoc network is an infrastructure less network which operates with the coordination of each node. Each node believes to help another node, by forwarding its data to/from another node. Unlike a wired network, nodes in an ad hoc network are resource (i.e. battery, bandwidth computational capability and so on) constrained. Such dependability of one node to another and limited resources of nodes can result in non cooperation by any node to accumulate its resources. Such non cooperation is known as selfish behavior. This paper discusses the performance analysis of very well known MANET single-path (i.e. AODV) and multi-path (i.e. AOMDV) routing protocol, in the presence of selfish behaviors. Along with existing selfish behaviors, a new variation is also studied. Extensive simulations were carried out using ns-2 and the study concluded that the multi-path protocol (i.e. AOMDV) with link disjoint configuration outperforms the other two configurations.

Keywords: performance analysis, single and multi path protocol, selfish behaviors.

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Authors: Anas M. Fares

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The using of finite element programs in analyzing and designing buildings are becoming very popular, but there are many engineers still using the tributary area method (TAM) in designing the structural members such as columns. This study is an attempt to investigate the accuracy of the TAM results with different load condition (gravity and lateral load), different floors numbers, and different columns stiffness's. To conduct this study, linear elastic analysis in ETABS program is used. The results from finite element method are compared to those obtained from TAM. According to the analysis of the data obtained, it can be seen that there is significance difference between the real load carried by columns and the load which is calculated by using the TAM. Thus, using 3-D models are the best choice to calculate the real load effected on columns and design these columns according to this load.

Keywords: Tributary area method, finite element method, ETABS, lateral load, axial loads, reinforced concrete, stiffness, multi-floor buildings.

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Authors: Naser Charkhsaz, Ashraf Sadat Mousavi, Navvab Shamspour

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This study aimed to evaluate the role of state education in increasing public awareness through mass media (with emphasis on newspapers and TV) coping with possible earthquake in Tehran. All residents aged 15 to 65 who live in the five regions of Tehran (North, South, East, West and Center) during the plan implementation were selected and studied. The required sample size in each region was calculated based on the Cochran formula (n=380). In order to collect and analyze the data, a questionnaire with reliability (82%) and a one-sample t-test has been used, respectively. The results showed that warnings related to the Tehran earthquake affected people in the pre-contemplation stage, while public education through mass media did not promote public awareness about prevention, preparedness and rehabilitation.

Keywords: Public education through mass media, public awareness, possible earthquake in Tehran, pre-contemplation.

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Authors: Matthew O. Ikuabe, Ayodeji E. Oke, Clinton O. Aigbavboa, Douglas O. Aghimien, Tshepo P. Mokori

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The use of technological innovations has been touted to be beneficial in the delivery of construction projects. Particularly, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology is widely regarded to be of immense advantage for the management of construction projects. This study focused on evaluating the barriers to the use of RFID technology for the delivery of construction projects. Using Gauteng Province in South Africa as the study area, questionnaire was used in eliciting responses from construction professionals which made up the population of the study. Retrieved data were analyzed using Mean Item Score and One-Sample t-test. Findings from the study showed that the most significant barriers to the deployment of RFID for construction project delivery are high cost and lack of awareness. Conclusively, the study made recommendations that would aid in the abatement of the barriers to the use of RFID technology for construction project delivery.

Keywords: Barriers, construction, project delivery, RFID.

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Authors: Nouf Saad Alnassar, Susan Grant, Ray Holland

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This research study examines cases of Saudi Arabian universities and female academics for work environment issues within the context of design management applications. The study proposes use of design research, ergonomics and systems design thinking to develop the university design which facilitates removal of physical and cognitive barriers for female academics. Review of literature demonstrates that macro and micro ergonomic combined with design management and system design strategies can significantly improve the workplace design for female academics. The university design model would be prepared based on the analyses of primary data obtained from archived documents, participants' observation logs, photo audits, focus groups and semi-structured interviews of currently employed female academics in the selected case universities.

Keywords: Design management, workplace design, university design, ergonomics.

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Authors: Hapriza Ashari, Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmod

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This article aims to assess the level of basic knowledge of statutory employment rights at the workplace as prescribed by the Malaysian Employment Act 1955. The statutory employment rights comprises of a variety of individual employment rights such as protections of wages, statutory right to the general standard of working time, statutory right to rest day, public holidays, annual leave and sick leave as well as female employee’s statutory right to paid maternity leave. A field survey was carried out to collect data by using self-administered questionnaires from Human Resource (HR) practitioners in the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The results reveal that the level of basic knowledge of legislated employment rights varies between different types of statutory rights from high level to low level.

Keywords: Employment legislation, Human Resource (HR) practitioner, legal knowledge, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

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Authors: Shahrinaz Ismail, Zulhelmi Mohammed, Nur Waheda Md Yusof, Mohd Sharifuddin Ahmad

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The burst of Web 2.0 technology and social networking tools manifest different styles of learning and managing knowledge among both knowledge workers and adult learners. In the Western countries, open-learning concept has been made popular due to the ease of use and the reach that the technology provides. In Malaysia, there are still some gaps between the learners- acceptance of technology and the full implementation of the technology in the education system. There is a need to understand how adult learners, who are knowledge workers, manage their personal knowledge via social networking tools, especially in their learning process. Four processes of personal knowledge management (PKM) and four cognitive enablers are proposed supported by analysed data on adult learners in a university. The model derived from these processes and enablers is tested and presented, with recommendations on features to be included in adult learners- learning environment.

Keywords: Personal knowledge management, adult learners, social network, learning environment.

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Authors: Tanja Radu, Cormac Fay, King Tong Lau, Rhys Waite, Dermot Diamond

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The development of wearable sensing technologies is a great challenge which is being addressed by the Proetex FP6 project (www.proetex.org). Its main aim is the development of wearable sensors to improve the safety and efficiency of emergency personnel. This will be achieved by continuous, real-time monitoring of vital signs, posture, activity, and external hazards surrounding emergency workers. We report here the development of carbon dioxide (CO2) sensing boot by incorporating commercially available CO2 sensor with a wireless platform into the boot assembly. Carefully selected commercially available sensors have been tested. Some of the key characteristics of the selected sensors are high selectivity and sensitivity, robustness and the power demand. This paper discusses some of the results of CO2 sensor tests and sensor integration with wireless data transmission

Keywords: Proetex, gas sensing, wireless, wearable sensors, carbon dioxide

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Authors: Sandhya, Rajbir Singh, Ramesh Kumar

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The purpose of this research paper on the subject of Leadership Effectiveness attempts to conduct a focused amount of research to examine the employees’ perceptions pertaining to specific competencies of leadership effectiveness in Indian manufacturing industries and to correlate their perceptions between private sectors and public sector undertakings. It specifically looks at the current definitions of leadership and looks at some historical background information relating to the more common theories that relate to leadership and effectiveness. This research was conducted by using a variety of current books and periodical articles on the topic of leadership effectiveness and employees’ perceptions. A number of leadership effectiveness competencies have been identified. The demographic details and perception of the employees on importance of leadership effectiveness competencies have been obtained through a well designed online questionnaire. For this purpose, a likert scale of seven-point has been used. Descriptive and inferential statistics is used to analyze the gathered data.

Keywords: Employees Perception, Leadership Effectiveness, Leadership Competencies, Manufacturing.

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Authors: Renato Santos Paulinelli Raposo, Vinicius Resende Domingues, Manoel Porfirio Cordao Neto

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Rapid drawdown is one of the cases referred to ground stability study in dam projects. Due to the complexity generated by the combination of loads and the difficulty in determining the parameters, analyses of rapid drawdown are usually performed considering the immediate reduction of water level upstream. The proposal of a simulation, considering the gradual reduction in water level upstream, requires knowledge of parameters about consolidation and those related to unsaturated soil. In this context, the purpose of this study is to understand the methodology of collection and analysis of parameters to simulate a rapid drawdown in dams. Using a numerical tool, the study is complemented with a hypothetical case study that can assist the practical use of data compiled. The referenced dam presents homogeneous section composed of clay soil, a height of 70 meters, a width of 12 meters, and upstream slope with inclination 1V:3H.

Keywords: Dam, GeoStudio, rapid drawdown, stability analysis.

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Authors: M. Bittencourt, E. K. Yanful, D. Velasquez, A. E. Jungles

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The CMLP building was developed to be a model for sustainability with strategies to reduce water, energy and pollution, and to provide a healthy environment for the building occupants. The aim of this paper is to investigate the environmental effects of energy used by this building. A LCA (life cycle analysis) was led to measure the real environmental effects produced by the use of energy. The impact categories most affected by the energy use were found to be the human health effects, as well as ecotoxicity. Natural gas extraction, uranium milling for nuclear energy production, and the blasting for mining and infrastructure construction are the processes contributing the most to emissions in the human health effect. Data comparing LCA results of CMLP building with a conventional building results showed that energy used by the CMLP building has less damage for the environment and human health than a conventional building.

Keywords: Environmental Impacts, Green buildings, Life CycleAnalysis, Sustainability

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Authors: Aldy Gunawan, Kien Ming Ng, Kim Leng Poh

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This paper presents a hybrid algorithm for solving a timetabling problem, which is commonly encountered in many universities. The problem combines both teacher assignment and course scheduling problems simultaneously, and is presented as a mathematical programming model. However, this problem becomes intractable and it is unlikely that a proven optimal solution can be obtained by an integer programming approach, especially for large problem instances. A hybrid algorithm that combines an integer programming approach, a greedy heuristic and a modified simulated annealing algorithm collaboratively is proposed to solve the problem. Several randomly generated data sets of sizes comparable to that of an institution in Indonesia are solved using the proposed algorithm. Computational results indicate that the algorithm can overcome difficulties of large problem sizes encountered in previous related works.

Keywords: Timetabling problem, mathematical programming model, hybrid algorithm, simulated annealing.

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Authors: Sungjin Lee, Donghyun Choi, Choonsik Park, Seungjoo Kim

Abstract:

A SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) system is an industrial control and monitoring system for national infrastructures. The SCADA systems were used in a closed environment without considering about security functionality in the past. As communication technology develops, they try to connect the SCADA systems to an open network. Therefore, the security of the SCADA systems has been an issue. The study of key management for SCADA system also has been performed. However, existing key management schemes for SCADA system such as SKE(Key establishment for SCADA systems) and SKMA(Key management scheme for SCADA systems) cannot support broadcasting communication. To solve this problem, an Advanced Key Management Architecture for Secure SCADA Communication has been proposed by Choi et al.. Choi et al.-s scheme also has a problem that it requires lots of computational cost for multicasting communication. In this paper, we propose an enhanced scheme which improving computational cost for multicasting communication with considering the number of keys to be stored in a low power communication device (RTU).

Keywords: SCADA system, SCADA communication, Key management, Distributed networks.

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Authors: Ivana Šimonová

Abstract:

As widely accepted, didactic multiple-choice tests are referred as a tool providing feedback easily and quickly. Despite the final test scores are corrected by a special formula and number of high plausibility distractors is taken into consideration, the results may be influenced by the random choice. The survey was held in three academic years at the Faculty of Informatics and Management, University of Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic, where the multiple-choice test scores were compared to the open-answer ones. The research sample included 567 respondents. The collected data were processed by the NCSS2007 statistic software by the method of frequency and multiple regression analysis and presented in the form of figures and tables. The results proved statistically significant differences in test scores in academic years 2 and 3, and were discussed from the point of the credit system and conditions for teaching/learning English in the Czech education system.

Keywords: ESP, higher education, multiple-choice test, open-answer test.

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Authors: S. Sabbour, H. Lasi, P. von Tessin

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The purpose of this study is two-fold. First, it attempts to explore potential opportunities for utilizing visual interactive simulations along with Business Intelligence (BI) as a decision support tool for strategic decision making. Second, it tries to figure out the essential top-level managerial requirements that would transform strategic decision simulation into an integral component of BI systems. The domain of particular interest was the application of visual interactive simulation capabilities in the field of supply chains. A qualitative exploratory method was applied, through the use of interviews with two leading companies. The collected data was then analysed to demonstrate the difference between the literature perspective and the practical managerial perspective on the issue. The results of the study suggest that although the use of simulation particularly in managing supply chains is very evident in literature, yet, in practice such utilization is still in its infancy, particularly regarding strategic decisions. Based on the insights a prototype of a simulation based BI-solution-extension was developed and evaluated.

Keywords: Business Intelligence, decision support, strategic decisions, simulation, SCM.

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Authors: I. Lolic, P. Soric, M. Cizmesija

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Based on Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) data, the European Commission (EC) regularly publishes the monthly Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for each EU member state. ESI is conceptualized as a leading indicator, aimed ad tracking the overall economic activity. In calculating ESI, the EC employs arbitrarily chosen weights on 15 BCS response balances. This paper raises the predictive quality of ESI by applying nonlinear programming to find such weights that maximize the correlation coefficient of ESI and year-on-year GDP growth. The obtained results show that the highest weights are assigned to the response balances of industrial sector questions, followed by questions from the retail trade sector. This comes as no surprise since the existing literature shows that the industrial production is a plausible proxy for the overall Croatian economic activity and since Croatian GDP is largely influenced by the aggregate personal consumption.

Keywords: Business and Consumer Survey, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Leading Indicator, Nonlinear Optimization with Constraints.

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Authors: Madihah Mohd Saudi, Zul Hilmi Abdullah

Abstract:

This research paper presents a framework on how to build up malware dataset.Many researchers took longer time to clean the dataset from any noise or to transform the dataset into a format that can be used straight away for testing. Therefore, this research is proposing a framework to help researchers to speed up the malware dataset cleaningprocesses which later can be used for testing. It is believed, an efficient malware dataset cleaning processes, can improved the quality of the data, thus help to improve the accuracy and the efficiency of the subsequent analysis. Apart from that, an in-depth understanding of the malware taxonomy is also important prior and during the dataset cleaning processes. A new Trojan classification has been proposed to complement this framework.This experiment has been conducted in a controlled lab environment and using the dataset from VxHeavens dataset. This framework is built based on the integration of static and dynamic analyses, incident response method and knowledge database discovery (KDD) processes.This framework can be used as the basis guideline for malware researchers in building malware dataset.

Keywords: Dataset, knowledge database discovery (KDD), malware, static and dynamic analyses.

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Authors: Bahar Razavi, Mansour Parehkar, Ali Gholami

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Pore water pressure is normally because of consolidation, compaction and water level fluctuation on reservoir. Measuring, controlling and analyzing of pore water pressure have significant importance in both of construction and operation period. Since end of 2002, (dam start up) nature of KARKHEH dam has been analyzed by using the gathered information from instrumentation system of dam. In this lecture dam condition after start up have been analyzed by using the gathered data from located piezometers in core of dam. According to TERZAGHI equation and records of piezometers, consolidation lasted around five years during early years of construction stage, and current pore water pressure in core of dam is caused by water level fluctuation in reservoir. Although there is time lag between water level fluctuation and results of piezometers. These time lags have been checked and the results clearly show that one of the most important causes of it is distance between piezometer and reservoir.

Keywords: Earth dam, Reservoir, Piezometer, Terzaghi, Consolidation

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Authors: Horng-Jyh Chen, Yi-Fang Chen, Chien-Liang Lin

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In this paper, the authors try to investigate the determinants of behavioral intention of the blended E-learning course for senior students at the Active Ageing University in Taiwan. Due to lower proficiency in the use of computers and less experience on learning styles of the blended E-learning course for senior students will be expected quite different from those for most young students. After more than five weeks course for two years the questionnaire survey is executed to collect data for statistical analysis in order to understand the determinants of the behavioral intention for senior students. The object of this study is at one of the Active Ageing University in Taiwan total of 84 senior students in the blended E-learning for the ceramics teaching course. The research results show that only the perceived usefulness of the blended E-learning course has significant positive relationship with the behavioral intention.

Keywords: Active Aging University, blended E-learning, ceramics teaching course, behavioral intention

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Authors: Haytham Yassine

Abstract:

This research seeks to identify how money laundering activities are executed through the real estate sector. This article provides academics with literature on the topic and provides scholars, and practitioners with a better understanding of the risks and challenges involved. Data are gathered through survey in the Middle East and North Africa region and review of the available research. The results of the analysis will help identifying the factors attracting criminals to the real estate sector and develop an understanding of the methods used to launder illicit funds through this sector and the indicators of suspicion for reporting entities. Further analysis reveals the risks posed by money laundering and terrorist financing on the real estate sector and challenges facing states in this regard.

Keywords: Money laundering, terrorism financing, real estate sector, Middle East and North Africa.

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Authors: Ismail Baniadam, Nafisa Tadayyon, Javid Fereidoni

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This study aimed to investigate medical students’ attitudes toward some teachers’ talking features regarding their gender in the Iranian context. To do so, 60 male and 60 female medical students of Urmia University of Medical Sciences (UMSU) participated in the research. A researcher made Likert-type questionnaire which was initially piloted and was used to gather the data. Comparing the four different factors regarding the features of teacher talk, it was revealed that visual and extra-linguistic information factor, Lexical and syntactic familiarity, Speed of speech, and the use of Persian language had the highest to the lowest mean score, respectively. It was also indicated that female students rather than male students were significantly more in favor of speed of speech and lexical and syntactic familiarity.

Keywords: Attitude, gender, medical student, teacher talk.

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Authors: Redha Elhuni, M. Munir Ahmad

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research is to construct a generic model for successful implementation of Total Quality Management (TQM) in Oil sector, and to find out the effects of this model on the organizational sustainability development (OSD) performance of Libyan oil and gas companies using the structured equation modeling (SEM) approach. The research approach covers both quantitative and qualitative methods. A questionnaire was developed in order to identify the quality factors that are seen by Libyan oil and gas companies to be critical to the success of TQM implementation. Hypotheses were developed to evaluate the impact of TQM implementation on O SD. Data analysis reveals that there is a significant positive effect of the TQM implementation on OSD. 24 quality factors are found to be critical and absolutely essential for successful TQM implementation. The results generated a structure of the TQMSD implementation framework based on the four major road map constructs (Top management commitment, employee involvement and participation, customer-driven processes, and continuous improvement culture).

Keywords: TQM, CQFs, Oil & Gas, OSD, Libya.

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Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

Abstract:

This paper analyzes innovation trends in South Korea by means of the number of patent applications filed by residents and nonresidents during the period 1965 to 2012. Making use of patent data released by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), we search for the presence of multiple structural changes in patent application series in this country. These changes may suggest that firms’ innovative activity has been modified as a result of implementing some science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. Accordingly, the new regulations implemented in this country in the last decades have influenced its innovative activity. The question conducting this research is thus how STI policies in South Korea have influenced its innovation activity. The results confirm the existence of multiple structural changes in the series of patent applications resulting from alternative STI policies implemented during these years.

Keywords: Econometric methods, innovation activity, South Korea, patent applications, science, technology and innovation (STI) policy.

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Authors: Mary L. G. S. Senna, Veruska, C. Dutra, Jr., Keity L. F. Oliveira, Patrícia A. Santos, Alana C. M. Santana

Abstract:

Environmental impacts are the changes in the physical, chemical or biological properties of natural areas that are most often caused by human actions on the environment and which have consequences for human health, society and the elements of nature. The identification of the environmental impacts is important so that they are mitigated, and above all that the mitigating measures are applied in the area. This work aims to identify the environmental impacts generated in the Praia do Caju area in the city of Palmas/Brazil and show that the lack of structure on the beach intensifies the environmental impacts. The present work was carried out having as parameter, the typologies of exploratory and descriptive and quantitative research through a matrix of environmental impacts through direct observation and registration. The study took place during the holidays from August to December 2016 and photographic record of impacts. From the collected data it was possible to verify that Caju beach suffers constant degradation due to irregular deposition.

Keywords: Leisure, tourism, environmental impacts, Brazil.

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Authors: Sperisa Distantina, Rieke Ulfha Noviyanti, Sri Sutriyani, Fadilah Fadilah, Mujtahid Kaavessina

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In this research, carrageenan extracted from seaweed Eucheuma cottonii was mixed with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and then crosslinked using glutaraldehyde (GA). The obtained hydrogel films were applied to control the drug release rate of paracetamol. The aim of this research was to develop a mathematical model that can be used to describe the mass transfer rate of paracetamol from the hydrogel film into buffer solution. The effect of weight ratio carrageenan-PVA (5: 0, 1: 0.5, 1: 1, 1: 2, 0: 5) on the parameters of the mathematical model was investigated also. Based on the experimental data, the proposed mathematical model could describe the mass transfer rate of paracetamol. The weight ratio of carrageenan-PVA greatly affected the amount of paracetamol absorbed in the hydrogel film and the mass transfer rate of paracetamol.

Keywords: Carrageenan-PVA, crosslinking, hydrogel, glutaraldehyde, paracetamol, mass transfer.

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Authors: Badr Hssina, Belaid Bouikhalene, Abdelkrim Merbouha

Abstract:

This article presents our prototype MASET (Multi Agents System for E-Tutoring Learners engaged in online collaborative work). MASET that we propose is a system which basically aims to help tutors in monitoring the collaborative work of students and their various interactions. The evaluation of such interactions by the tutor is based on the results provided by the automatic analysis of the interaction indicators. This system is predicated upon the middleware JADE (Java Agent Development Framework) and e-learning Moodle platform. The MASET environment is modeled by AUML which allows structuring the different interactions between agents for the fulfillment and performance of online collaborative work. This multi-agent system has been the subject of a practical experimentation based on the interactions data between Master Computer Engineering and System students.

Keywords: AUML, Collaborative work, E-learning, E-tutoring, JADE, Moodle, SMA, Web Agent.

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Authors: M. Karami Khorramabadi, A. R. Nezamabadi

Abstract:

This paper studies free vibration of functionally graded beams Subjected to Axial Load that is simply supported at both ends lies on a continuous elastic foundation. The displacement field of beam is assumed based on Engesser-Timoshenko beam theory. The Young's modulus of beam is assumed to be graded continuously across the beam thickness. Applying the Hamilton's principle, the governing equation is established. Resulting equation is solved using the Euler's Equation. The effects of the constituent volume fractions and foundation coefficient on the vibration frequency are presented. To investigate the accuracy of the present analysis, a compression study is carried out with a known data.

Keywords: Functionally Graded Beam, Free Vibration, Elastic Foundation, Engesser-Timoshenko Beam Theory.

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Authors: G. Van Dijck, M. M. Van Hulle, M. Wevers

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A genetic algorithm (GA) based feature subset selection algorithm is proposed in which the correlation structure of the features is exploited. The subset of features is validated according to the classification performance. Features derived from the continuous wavelet transform are potentially strongly correlated. GA-s that do not take the correlation structure of features into account are inefficient. The proposed algorithm forms clusters of correlated features and searches for a good candidate set of clusters. Secondly a search within the clusters is performed. Different simulations of the algorithm on a real-case data set with strong correlations between features show the increased classification performance. Comparison is performed with a standard GA without use of the correlation structure.

Keywords: Classification, genetic algorithm, hierarchicalagglomerative clustering, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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