Search results for: linear and non linear analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9829

Search results for: linear and non linear analysis

9409 Design of Nonlinear Observer by Using Chebyshev Interpolation based on Formal Linearization

Authors: Kazuo Komatsu, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

This paper discusses a design of nonlinear observer by a formal linearization method using an application of Chebyshev Interpolation in order to facilitate processes for synthesizing a nonlinear observer and to improve the precision of linearization. A dynamic nonlinear system is linearized with respect to a linearization function, and a measurement equation is transformed into an augmented linear one by the formal linearization method which is based on Chebyshev interpolation. To the linearized system, a linear estimation theory is applied and a nonlinear observer is derived. To show effectiveness of the observer design, numerical experiments are illustrated and they indicate that the design shows remarkable performances for nonlinear systems.

Keywords: nonlinear system, nonlinear observer, formal linearization, Chebyshev interpolation.

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9408 Self-Tuning Power System Stabilizer Based on Recursive Least Square Identification and Linear Quadratic Regulator

Authors: J. Ritonja

Abstract:

Available commercial applications of power system stabilizers assure optimal damping of synchronous generator’s oscillations only in a small part of operating range. Parameters of the power system stabilizer are usually tuned for the selected operating point. Extensive variations of the synchronous generator’s operation result in changed dynamic characteristics. This is the reason that the power system stabilizer tuned for the nominal operating point does not satisfy preferred damping in the overall operation area. The small-signal stability and the transient stability of the synchronous generators have represented an attractive problem for testing different concepts of the modern control theory. Of all the methods, the adaptive control has proved to be the most suitable for the design of the power system stabilizers. The adaptive control has been used in order to assure the optimal damping through the entire synchronous generator’s operating range. The use of the adaptive control is possible because the loading variations and consequently the variations of the synchronous generator’s dynamic characteristics are, in most cases, essentially slower than the adaptation mechanism. The paper shows the development and the application of the self-tuning power system stabilizer based on recursive least square identification method and linear quadratic regulator. Identification method is used to calculate the parameters of the Heffron-Phillips model of the synchronous generator. On the basis of the calculated parameters of the synchronous generator’s mathematical model, the synthesis of the linear quadratic regulator is carried-out. The identification and the synthesis are implemented on-line. In this way, the self-tuning power system stabilizer adapts to the different operating conditions. A purpose of this paper is to contribute to development of the more effective power system stabilizers, which would replace currently used linear stabilizers. The presented self-tuning power system stabilizer makes the tuning of the controller parameters easier and assures damping improvement in the complete operating range. The results of simulations and experiments show essential improvement of the synchronous generator’s damping and power system stability.

Keywords: Adaptive control, linear quadratic regulator, power system stabilizer, recursive least square identification.

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9407 State of Charge Estimator Based On High-Gain Observer for Lithium-Ion Batteries

Authors: Jaeho Han, Moonjung Kim, Won-Ho Kim, Chang-Ho Hyun

Abstract:

This paper introduces a high-gain observer based state of charge(SOC) estimator for lithium-Ion batteries. The proposed SOC estimator has a high-gain observer(HGO) structure. The HGO scheme enhances the transient response speed and diminishes the effect of uncertainties. Furthermore, it guarantees that the output feedback controller recovers the performance of the state feedback controller when the observer gain is sufficiently high. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed method, the linear RC battery model in ADVISOR is used. The performance of the proposed method is compared with that of the conventional linear observer(CLO) and some simulation result is given.

Keywords: SOC, high-gain, observer, uncertainties, robust

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9406 Subjective Assessment about Super Resolution Image Resolution

Authors: Seiichi Gohshi, Hiroyuki Sekiguchi, Yoshiyasu Shimizu, Takeshi Ikenaga

Abstract:

Super resolution (SR) technologies are now being applied to video to improve resolution. Some TV sets are now equipped with SR functions. However, it is not known if super resolution image reconstruction (SRR) for TV really works or not. Super resolution with non-linear signal processing (SRNL) has recently been proposed. SRR and SRNL are the only methods for processing video signals in real time. The results from subjective assessments of SSR and SRNL are described in this paper. SRR video was produced in simulations with quarter precision motion vectors and 100 iterations. These are ideal conditions for SRR. We found that the image quality of SRNL is better than that of SRR even though SRR was processed under ideal conditions.

Keywords: Super Resolution Image Reconstruction, Super Resolution with Non-Linear Signal Processing, Subjective Assessment, Image Quality

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9405 Orthogonal Regression for Nonparametric Estimation of Errors-in-Variables Models

Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

Abstract:

Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: Grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression.

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9404 Investigating the Impact of Wind Speed on Active and Reactive Power Penetration to the Distribution Network

Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N.P.Padhy

Abstract:

Wind power is among the most actively developing distributed generation (DG) technology. Majority of the wind power based DG technologies employ wind turbine induction generators (WTIG) instead of synchronous generators, for the technical advantages like: reduced size, increased robustness, lower cost, and increased electromechanical damping. However, dynamic changes of wind speed make the amount of active/reactive power injected/drawn to a WTIG embedded distribution network highly variable. This paper analyzes the effect of wind speed changes on the active and reactive power penetration to the wind energy embedded distribution network. Four types of wind speed changes namely; constant, linear change, gust change and random change of wind speed are considered in the analysis. The study is carried out by three-phase, non-linear, dynamic simulation of distribution system component models. Results obtained from the investigation are presented and discussed.

Keywords: Wind turbine induction generator, distribution network, active and reactive power, wind speed.

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9403 Evolutionary Techniques for Model Order Reduction of Large Scale Linear Systems

Authors: S. Panda, J. S. Yadav, N. P. Patidar, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Recently, genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique have attracted considerable attention among various modern heuristic optimization techniques. The GA has been popular in academia and the industry mainly because of its intuitiveness, ease of implementation, and the ability to effectively solve highly non-linear, mixed integer optimization problems that are typical of complex engineering systems. PSO technique is a relatively recent heuristic search method whose mechanics are inspired by the swarming or collaborative behavior of biological populations. In this paper both PSO and GA optimization are employed for finding stable reduced order models of single-input- single-output large-scale linear systems. Both the techniques guarantee stability of reduced order model if the original high order model is stable. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical example from literature and the results are compared with recently published conventional model reduction technique.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Order Reduction, Stability, Transfer Function, Integral Squared Error.

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9402 Fuzzy Tuned PID Controller with D-Q-O Reference Frame Technique Based Active Power Filter

Authors: Kavala Kiran Kumar, R. Govardhana Rao

Abstract:

Active power filter continues to be a powerful tool to control harmonics in power systems thereby enhancing the power quality. This paper presents a fuzzy tuned PID controller based shunt active filter to diminish the harmonics caused by non linear loads like thyristor bridge rectifiers and imbalanced loads. Here Fuzzy controller provides the tuning of PID, based on firing of thyristor bridge rectifiers and variations in input rms current. The shunt APF system is implemented with three phase current controlled Voltage Source Inverter (VSI) and is connected at the point of common coupling for compensating the current harmonics by injecting equal but opposite filter currents. These controllers are capable of controlling dc-side capacitor voltage and estimating reference currents. Hysteresis Current Controller (HCC) is used to generate switching signals for the voltage source inverter. Simulation studies are carried out with non linear loads like thyristor bridge rectifier along with unbalanced loads and the results proved that the APF along with fuzzy tuned PID controller work flawlessly for different firing angles of non linear load.

Keywords: Active power filters (APF), Fuzzy logic controller (FLC), Hysteresis current controller (HCC), PID, Total harmonic Distortion (THD), Voltage source inverter (VSI).

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9401 Climate Change in Albania and Its Effect on Cereal Yield

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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9400 Angles of Arrival Estimation with Unitary Partial Propagator

Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigated the effect of real valued transformation of the spectral matrix of the received data for Angles Of Arrival estimation problem.  Indeed, the unitary transformation of Partial Propagator (UPP) for narrowband sources is proposed and applied on Uniform Linear Array (ULA).

Monte Carlo simulations proved the performance of the UPP spectrum comparatively with Forward Backward Partial Propagator (FBPP) and Unitary Propagator (UP). The results demonstrates that when some of the sources are fully correlated and closer than the Rayleigh angular limit resolution of the broadside array, the UPP method outperforms the FBPP in both of spatial resolution and complexity.

Keywords: DOA, Uniform Linear Array, Narrowband, Propagator, Real valued transformation, Subspace, Unitary Operator.

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9399 Note to the Global GMRES for Solving the Matrix Equation AXB = F

Authors: Fatemeh Panjeh Ali Beik

Abstract:

In the present work, we propose a new projection method for solving the matrix equation AXB = F. For implementing our new method, generalized forms of block Krylov subspace and global Arnoldi process are presented. The new method can be considered as an extended form of the well-known global generalized minimum residual (Gl-GMRES) method for solving multiple linear systems and it will be called as the extended Gl-GMRES (EGl- GMRES). Some new theoretical results have been established for proposed method by employing Schur complement. Finally, some numerical results are given to illustrate the efficiency of our new method.

Keywords: Matrix equation, Iterative method, linear systems, block Krylov subspace method, global generalized minimum residual (Gl-GMRES).

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9398 An Approximate Solution of the Classical Van der Pol Oscillator Coupled Gyroscopically to a Linear Oscillator Using Parameter-Expansion Method

Authors: Mohammad Taghi Darvishi, Samad Kheybari

Abstract:

In this article, we are dealing with a model consisting of a classical Van der Pol oscillator coupled gyroscopically to a linear oscillator. The major problem is analyzed. The regular dynamics of the system is considered using analytical methods. In this case, we provide an approximate solution for this system using parameter-expansion method. Also, we find approximate values for frequencies of the system. In parameter-expansion method the solution and unknown frequency of oscillation are expanded in a series by a bookkeeping parameter. By imposing the non-secularity condition at each order in the expansion the method provides different approximations to both the solution and the frequency of oscillation. One iteration step provides an approximate solution which is valid for the whole solution domain.

Keywords: Parameter-expansion method, classical Van der Pol oscillator.

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9397 Quality Parameters of Offset Printing Wastewater

Authors: Kiurski S. Jelena, Kecić S. Vesna, Aksentijević M. Snežana

Abstract:

Samples of tap and wastewater were collected in three offset printing facilities in Novi Sad, Serbia. Ten physicochemical parameters were analyzed within all collected samples: pH, conductivity, m - alkalinity, p - alkalinity, acidity, carbonate concentration, hydrogen carbonate concentration, active oxygen content, chloride concentration and total alkali content. All measurements were conducted using the standard analytical and instrumental methods. Comparing the obtained results for tap water and wastewater, a clear quality difference was noticeable, since all physicochemical parameters were significantly higher within wastewater samples. The study also involves the application of simple linear regression analysis on the obtained dataset. By using software package ORIGIN 5 the pH value was mutually correlated with other physicochemical parameters. Based on the obtained values of Pearson coefficient of determination a strong positive correlation between chloride concentration and pH (r = -0.943), as well as between acidity and pH (r = -0.855) was determined. In addition, statistically significant difference was obtained only between acidity and chloride concentration with pH values, since the values of parameter F (247.634 and 182.536) were higher than Fcritical (5.59). In this way, results of statistical analysis highlighted the most influential parameter of water contamination in offset printing, in the form of acidity and chloride concentration. The results showed that variable dependence could be represented by the general regression model: y = a0 + a1x+ k, which further resulted with matching graphic regressions.

Keywords: Pollution, printing industry, simple linear regression analysis, wastewater.

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9396 Predictive Analytics of Student Performance Determinants in Education

Authors: Mahtab Davari, Charles Edward Okon, Somayeh Aghanavesi

Abstract:

Every institute of learning is usually interested in the performance of enrolled students. The level of these performances determines the approach an institute of study may adopt in rendering academic services. The focus of this paper is to evaluate students' academic performance in given courses of study using machine learning methods. This study evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, using selected features to predict study performance. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score obtained from a 5-Fold Cross-Validation were used to determine the best classification algorithm to predict students’ performances. SVM (using a linear kernel), LDA, and LR were identified as the best-performing machine learning methods. Also, using the LR model, this study identified students' educational habits such as reading and paying attention in class as strong determinants for a student to have an above-average performance. Other important features include the academic history of the student and work. Demographic factors such as age, gender, high school graduation, etc., had no significant effect on a student's performance.

Keywords: Student performance, supervised machine learning, prediction, classification, cross-validation.

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9395 Estimating the Life-Distribution Parameters of Weibull-Life PV Systems Utilizing Non-Parametric Analysis

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

In this paper, a model is proposed to determine the life distribution parameters of the useful life region for the PV system utilizing a combination of non-parametric and linear regression analysis for the failure data of these systems. Results showed that this method is dependable for analyzing failure time data for such reliable systems when the data is scarce.

Keywords: Masking, Bathtub model, reliability, non-parametric analysis, useful life.

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9394 Robust Iterative PID Controller Based on Linear Matrix Inequality for a Sample Power System

Authors: Ahmed Bensenouci

Abstract:

This paper provides the design steps of a robust Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) based iterative multivariable PID controller whose duty is to drive a sample power system that comprises a synchronous generator connected to a large network via a step-up transformer and a transmission line. The generator is equipped with two control-loops, namely, the speed/power (governor) and voltage (exciter). Both loops are lumped in one where the error in the terminal voltage and output active power represent the controller inputs and the generator-exciter voltage and governor-valve position represent its outputs. Multivariable PID is considered here because of its wide use in the industry, simple structure and easy implementation. It is also preferred in plants of higher order that cannot be reduced to lower ones. To improve its robustness to variation in the controlled variables, H∞-norm of the system transfer function is used. To show the effectiveness of the controller, divers tests, namely, step/tracking in the controlled variables, and variation in plant parameters, are applied. A comparative study between the proposed controller and a robust H∞ LMI-based output feedback is given by its robustness to disturbance rejection. From the simulation results, the iterative multivariable PID shows superiority.

Keywords: Linear matrix inequality, power system, robust iterative PID, robust output feedback control

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9393 A Study on the Condition Monitoring of Transmission Line by On-line Circuit Parameter Measurement

Authors: Il Dong Kim, Jin Rak Lee, Young Jun Ko, Young Taek Jin

Abstract:

An on-line condition monitoring method for transmission line is proposed using electrical circuit theory and IT technology in this paper. It is reasonable that the circuit parameters such as resistance (R), inductance (L), conductance (g) and capacitance (C) of a transmission line expose the electrical conditions and physical state of the line. Those parameters can be calculated from the linear equation composed of voltages and currents measured by synchro-phasor measurement technique at both end of the line. A set of linear voltage drop equations containing four terminal constants (A, B ,C ,D ) are mathematical models of the transmission line circuits. At least two sets of those linear equations are established from different operation condition of the line, they may mathematically yield those circuit parameters of the line. The conditions of line connectivity including state of connecting parts or contacting parts of the switching device may be monitored by resistance variations during operation. The insulation conditions of the line can be monitored by conductance (g) and capacitance(C) measurements. Together with other condition monitoring devices such as partial discharge, sensors and visual sensing device etc.,they may give useful information to monitor out any incipient symptoms of faults. The prototype of hardware system has been developed and tested through laboratory level simulated transmission lines. The test has shown enough evident to put the proposed method to practical uses.

Keywords: Transmission Line, Condition Monitoring, Circuit Parameters, Synchro- phasor Measurement.

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9392 Quantitative Analysis of PCA, ICA, LDA and SVM in Face Recognition

Authors: Liton Jude Rozario, Mohammad Reduanul Haque, Md. Ziarul Islam, Mohammad Shorif Uddin

Abstract:

Face recognition is a technique to automatically identify or verify individuals. It receives great attention in identification, authentication, security and many more applications. Diverse methods had been proposed for this purpose and also a lot of comparative studies were performed. However, researchers could not reach unified conclusion. In this paper, we are reporting an extensive quantitative accuracy analysis of four most widely used face recognition algorithms: Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) using AT&T, Sheffield and Bangladeshi people face databases under diverse situations such as illumination, alignment and pose variations.

Keywords: PCA, ICA, LDA, SVM, face recognition, noise.

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9391 Exponential Stability of Uncertain Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Hopfield Neural Networks with Time Delays

Authors: Meng Hu, Lili Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, based on linear matrix inequality (LMI), by using Lyapunov functional theory, the exponential stability criterion is obtained for a class of uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy Hopfield neural networks (TSFHNNs) with time delays. Here we choose a generalized Lyapunov functional and introduce a parameterized model transformation with free weighting matrices to it, these techniques lead to generalized and less conservative stability condition that guarantee the wide stability region. Finally, an example is given to illustrate our results by using MATLAB LMI toolbox.

Keywords: Hopfield neural network, linear matrix inequality, exponential stability, time delay, T-S fuzzy model.

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9390 A Stable Pose Estimation Method for the Biped Robot using Image Information

Authors: Sangbum Park, Youngjoon Han

Abstract:

This paper proposes a balance control scheme for a biped robot to trace an arbitrary path using image information. While moving, it estimates the zero moment point(ZMP) of the biped robot in the next step using a Kalman filter and renders an appropriate balanced pose of the robot. The ZMP can be calculated from the robot's pose, which is measured from the reference object image acquired by a CCD camera on the robot's head. For simplifying the kinematical model, the coordinates systems of individual joints of each leg are aligned and the robot motion is approximated as an inverted pendulum so that a simple linear dynamics, 3D-LIPM(3D-Linear Inverted Pendulum Mode) can be applied. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm has been proven by the experiments performed on unknown trajectory.

Keywords: Biped robot, Zero moment point, Balance control, Kalman filter.

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9389 A Case Study on Appearance Based Feature Extraction Techniques and Their Susceptibility to Image Degradations for the Task of Face Recognition

Authors: Vitomir Struc, Nikola Pavesic

Abstract:

Over the past decades, automatic face recognition has become a highly active research area, mainly due to the countless application possibilities in both the private as well as the public sector. Numerous algorithms have been proposed in the literature to cope with the problem of face recognition, nevertheless, a group of methods commonly referred to as appearance based have emerged as the dominant solution to the face recognition problem. Many comparative studies concerned with the performance of appearance based methods have already been presented in the literature, not rarely with inconclusive and often with contradictory results. No consent has been reached within the scientific community regarding the relative ranking of the efficiency of appearance based methods for the face recognition task, let alone regarding their susceptibility to appearance changes induced by various environmental factors. To tackle these open issues, this paper assess the performance of the three dominant appearance based methods: principal component analysis, linear discriminant analysis and independent component analysis, and compares them on equal footing (i.e., with the same preprocessing procedure, with optimized parameters for the best possible performance, etc.) in face verification experiments on the publicly available XM2VTS database. In addition to the comparative analysis on the XM2VTS database, ten degraded versions of the database are also employed in the experiments to evaluate the susceptibility of the appearance based methods on various image degradations which can occur in "real-life" operating conditions. Our experimental results suggest that linear discriminant analysis ensures the most consistent verification rates across the tested databases.

Keywords: Biometrics, face recognition, appearance based methods, image degradations, the XM2VTS database.

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9388 Some Preconditioners for Block Pentadiagonal Linear Systems Based on New Approximate Factorization Methods

Authors: Xian Ming Gu, Ting Zhu Huang, Hou Biao Li

Abstract:

In this paper, getting an high-efficiency parallel algorithm to solve sparse block pentadiagonal linear systems suitable for vectors and parallel processors, stair matrices are used to construct some parallel polynomial approximate inverse preconditioners. These preconditioners are appropriate when the desired target is to maximize parallelism. Moreover, some theoretical results about these preconditioners are presented and how to construct preconditioners effectively for any nonsingular block pentadiagonal H-matrices is also described. In addition, the availability of these preconditioners is illustrated with some numerical experiments arising from two dimensional biharmonic equation.

Keywords: Parallel algorithm, Pentadiagonal matrix, Polynomial approximate inverse, Preconditioners, Stair matrix.

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9387 Analysis and Modeling of Stresses and Creeps Resulting from Soil Mechanics in Southern Plains of Kerman Province

Authors: Kourosh Nazarian

Abstract:

Many of the engineering materials, such as behavioral metals, have at least a certain level of linear behavior. It means that if the stresses are doubled, the deformations would be also doubled. In fact, these materials have linear elastic properties. Soils do not follow this law, for example, when compressed, soils become gradually tighter. On the surface of the ground, the sand can be easily deformed with a finger, but in high compressive stresses, they gain considerable hardness and strength. This is mainly due to the increase in the forces among the separate particles. Creeps also deform the soils under a constant load over time. Clay and peat soils have creep behavior. As a result of this phenomenon, structures constructed on such soils will continue their collapse over time. In this paper, the researchers analyzed and modeled the stresses and creeps in the southern plains of Kerman province in Iran through library-documentary, quantitative and software techniques, and field survey. The results of the modeling showed that these plains experienced severe stresses and had a collapse of about 26 cm in the last 15 years and also creep evidence was discovered in an area with a gradient of 3-6 degrees.

Keywords: Stress, creep, surface runoff.

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9386 Identifying Factors Contributing to the Spread of Lyme Disease: A Regression Analysis of Virginia’s Data

Authors: Fatemeh Valizadeh Gamchi, Edward L. Boone

Abstract:

This research focuses on Lyme disease, a widespread infectious condition in the United States caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. It is critical to identify environmental and economic elements that are contributing to the spread of the disease. This study examined data from Virginia to identify a subset of explanatory variables significant for Lyme disease case numbers. To identify relevant variables and avoid overfitting, linear poisson, and regularization regression methods such as ridge, lasso, and elastic net penalty were employed. Cross-validation was performed to acquire tuning parameters. The methods proposed can automatically identify relevant disease count covariates. The efficacy of the techniques was assessed using four criteria on three simulated datasets. Finally, using the Virginia Department of Health’s Lyme disease dataset, the study successfully identified key factors, and the results were consistent with previous studies.

Keywords: Lyme disease, Poisson generalized linear model, Ridge regression, Lasso Regression, elastic net regression.

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9385 Detecting Earnings Management via Statistical and Neural Network Techniques

Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

Abstract:

Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: Earnings management, generalized regression neural networks, linear regression, multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange.

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9384 Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Maritime Transport Gross Domestic Product on Nigeria’s Economy

Authors: K. P. Oyeduntan, K. Oshinubi

Abstract:

Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the sparkplug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria.

Keywords: Economy, GDP, maritime transport, port, regression.

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9383 An Approach to Control Design for Nonlinear Systems via Two-stage Formal Linearization and Two-type LQ Controls

Authors: Kazuo Komatsu, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

In this paper we consider a nonlinear control design for nonlinear systems by using two-stage formal linearization and twotype LQ controls. The ordinary LQ control is designed on almost linear region around the steady state point. On the other region, another control is derived as follows. This derivation is based on coordinate transformation twice with respect to linearization functions which are defined by polynomials. The linearized systems can be made up by using Taylor expansion considered up to the higher order. To the resulting formal linear system, the LQ control theory is applied to obtain another LQ control. Finally these two-type LQ controls are smoothly united to form a single nonlinear control. Numerical experiments indicate that this control show remarkable performances for a nonlinear system.

Keywords: Formal Linearization, LQ Control, Nonlinear Control, Taylor Expansion, Zero Function.

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9382 Estimating Regression Effects in Com Poisson Generalized Linear Model

Authors: Vandna Jowaheer, Naushad A. Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Com Poisson distribution is capable of modeling the count responses irrespective of their mean variance relation and the parameters of this distribution when fitted to a simple cross sectional data can be efficiently estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) method. In the regression setup, however, ML estimation of the parameters of the Com Poisson based generalized linear model is computationally intensive. In this paper, we propose to use quasilikelihood (QL) approach to estimate the effect of the covariates on the Com Poisson counts and investigate the performance of this method with respect to the ML method. QL estimates are consistent and almost as efficient as ML estimates. The simulation studies show that the efficiency loss in the estimation of all the parameters using QL approach as compared to ML approach is quite negligible, whereas QL approach is lesser involving than ML approach.

Keywords: Com Poisson, Cross-sectional, Maximum Likelihood, Quasi likelihood

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9381 A Multiple Linear Regression Model to Predict the Price of Cement in Nigeria

Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R2 of 0.8428 and R2 (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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9380 Practical Design Procedures of 3D Reinforced Concrete Shear Wall-Frame Structure Based on Structural Optimization Method

Authors: H. Nikzad, S. Yoshitomi

Abstract:

This study investigates and develops the structural optimization method. The effect of size constraints on practical solution of reinforced concrete (RC) building structure with shear wall is proposed. Cross-sections of beam and column, and thickness of shear wall are considered as design variables. The objective function to be minimized is total cost of the structure by using a simple and efficient automated MATLAB platform structural optimization methodology. With modification of mathematical formulations, the result is compared with optimal solution without size constraints. The most suitable combination of section sizes is selected as for the final design application based on linear static analysis. The findings of this study show that defining higher value of upper bound of sectional sizes significantly affects optimal solution, and defining of size constraints play a vital role in finding of global and practical solution during optimization procedures. The result and effectiveness of proposed method confirm the ability and efficiency of optimal solutions for 3D RC shear wall-frame structure.

Keywords: Structural optimization, linear static analysis, ETABS, MATLAB, RC shear wall-frame structures.

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