Search results for: construction risk assessment model

Authors: Bhaveshkumar P. Patel, J. M. Prajapati

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Excavators are high power machines used in the mining, agricultural and construction industry whose principal functions are digging (material removing), ground leveling and material transport operations. During the digging task there are certain unknown forces exerted by the bucket on the soil and the digging operation is repetitive in nature. Automation of the digging task can be performed by an automatically controlled excavator system, which is not only control the forces but also follow the planned digging trajectories. To develop such a controller for automated excavation, it is required to develop a dynamic model to describe the behavior of the control system during digging operation and motion of excavator with time. The presented work described a dynamic model needed for controller design and which is derived by applying Lagrange-Euler approach. The developed dynamic model is intended for further development of an automated excavation control system for light duty construction work and can be applied for heavy duty or all types of backhoe excavators.

Keywords: Backhoe excavator, controller, digging, excavation, trajectory.

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Authors: Yasar Guneri Sahin, Mehmet Cudi Okur

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Assessment of IEP (Individual Education Plan) is an important stage in the area of special education. This paper deals with this problem by introducing computer software which process the data gathered from application of IEP. The software is intended to be used by special education institution in Turkey and allows assessment of school and family trainings. The software has a user friendly interface and its design includes graphical developer tools.

Keywords: Disabled individual, software for education, assessment of education, special education.

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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The seismic risk mitigation from the perspective of the old buildings stock is truly essential in Algerian urban areas, particularly those located in seismic prone regions, such as Annaba city, and which the old buildings present high levels of degradation associated with no seismic strengthening and/or rehabilitation concerns. In this sense, the present paper approaches the issue of the seismic vulnerability assessment of old masonry building stocks through the adaptation of a simplified methodology developed for a European context area similar to that of Annaba city, Algeria. Therefore, this method is used for the first level of seismic vulnerability assessment of the masonry buildings stock of the old city center of Annaba. This methodology is based on a vulnerability index that is suitable for the evaluation of damage and for the creation of large-scale loss scenarios. Over 380 buildings were evaluated in accordance with the referred methodology and the results obtained were then integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Such results can be used by the Annaba city council for supporting management decisions, based on a global view of the site under analysis, which led to more accurate and faster decisions for the risk mitigation strategies and rehabilitation plans.

Keywords: Damage scenarios, masonry buildings, old city center, seismic vulnerability, vulnerability index.

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Authors: Razan Salem

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Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors.

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Authors: N. Olarte L, A. Rubiano F, A. Mejía F.

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This comparison of valuation techniques for bone age assessment is a work carried out by the Telemedicine Research Group of the Military University - TIGUM, as a preliminary to the Design and development a treatment system of hand and wrist radiological images for children aged 0-6 years to bone age assessment . In this paper the techniques mentioned for decades have been the most widely used and the statistically significant. Althought, initially with the current project, it wants to work with children who have limit age, this comparison and evaluation techniques work will help in the future to expand the study subject in the system to bone age assessment, implementing more techniques, tools and deeper analysis to accomplish this purpose.

Keywords: Atlas, Bone Age Assessment, Hand and Wrist Radiograph, Image Processing

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Authors: Mehtap Dursun, Zeynep Şener

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Supplier selection is considered as one of the most critical issues encountered by operations and purchasing managers to sharpen the company’s competitive advantage. In this paper, a novel fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making approach integrating quality function deployment (QFD) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is proposed for supplier selection. The proposed methodology enables to consider the impacts of inner dependence among supplier assessment criteria. A house of quality (HOQ) which translates purchased product features into supplier assessment criteria is built using the weights obtained by DEMATEL approach to determine the desired levels of supplier assessment criteria. Supplier alternatives are ranked by a distance-based method.

Keywords: DEMATEL, Group decision making, QFD, Supplier selection.

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Authors: Eftah Bte. Moh @ Hj Abdullah, Izazol Binti Idris, Abd Aziz Bin Abd Shukor

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This study aimed to identify the alignment of understanding and assessment practices among secondary school teachers. The study was carried out using quantitative descriptive study. The sample consisted of 164 teachers who taught Form 1 and 2 from 11 secondary schools in the district of North Kinta, Perak, Malaysia. Data were obtained from 164 respondents who answered Expectation Alignment Understanding and Practices of School Assessment (PEKDAPS) questionnaire. The data were analysed using SPSS 17.0+. The Cronbach’s alpha value obtained through PEKDAPS questionnaire pilot study was 0.86. The results showed that teachers' performance in PEKDAPS based on the mean value was less than 3, which means that perfect alignment does not occur between the understanding and practices of school assessment. Two major PEKDAPS sub-constructs of articulation across grade and age and usability of the system were higher than the moderate alignment of the understanding and practices of school assessment (Min=2.0). The content focused of PEKDAPs sub-constructs which showed lower than the moderate alignment of the understanding and practices of school assessment (Min=2.0). Another two PEKDAPS subconstructs of transparency and fairness and the pedagogical implications showed moderate alignment (2.0). The implications of the study is that teachers need to fully understand the importance of alignment among components of assessment, learning and teaching and learning objectives as strategies to achieve quality assessment process.

Keywords: Alignment, assessment practices, School Based Assessment, understanding.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a severe health problem caused by morbid obesity, the severest form of obesity. The components of MetS are rather stable in adults. However, the diagnosis of MetS in morbid obese (MO) children still constitutes a matter of discussion. The aim of this study was to develop a formula, which facilitated the diagnosis of MetS in MO children and was capable of discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings. The study population comprised MO children. Age and sex-dependent body mass index (BMI) percentiles of the children were above 99. Increased blood pressure, elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG), elevated triglycerides (TRG) and/or decreased high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in addition to central obesity were listed as MetS components for each child. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, there were 42 MO children without MetS components. Second group was composed of 44 MO children with at least two MetS components. Anthropometric measurements including weight, height, waist and hip circumferences were performed during physical examination. BMI and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were calculated. Informed consent forms were obtained from the parents of the children. Institutional Non-Interventional Clinical Studies Ethics Committee approved the study design. Routine biochemical analyses including FBG, insulin (INS), TRG, HDL-C were performed. The performance and the clinical utility of Diagnostic Obesity Notation Model Assessment Metabolic Syndrome Index (DONMA MetS index) [(INS/FBG)/(HDL-C/TRG)*100] was tested. Appropriate statistical tests were applied to the study data. p value smaller than 0.05 was defined as significant. MetS index values were 41.6 ± 5.1 in MO group and 104.4 ± 12.8 in MetS group. Corresponding values for HDL-C values were 54.5 ± 13.2 mg/dl and 44.2 ± 11.5 mg/dl. There was a statistically significant difference between the groups (p < 0.001). Upon evaluation of the correlations between MetS index and HDL-C values, a much stronger negative correlation was found in MetS group (r = -0.515; p = 0.001) in comparison with the correlation detected in MO group (r = -0.371; p = 0.016). From these findings, it was concluded that the statistical significance degree of the difference between MO and MetS groups was highly acceptable for this recently introduced MetS index. This was due to the involvement of all of the biochemically defined MetS components into the index. This is particularly important because each of these four parameters used in the formula is a cardiac risk factor. Aside from discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings, MetS index introduced in this study is important from the cardiovascular risk point of view in MetS group of children.

Keywords: Fasting blood glucose, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, insulin, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, triglycerides.

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Authors: Javad Majrouhi Sardroud, Mukesh C. Limbachiya

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Construction projects generally take place in uncontrolled and dynamic environments where construction waste is a serious environmental problem in many large cities. The total amount of waste and carbon dioxide emissions from transportation vehicles are still out of control due to increasing construction projects, massive urban development projects and the lack of effective tools for minimizing adverse environmental impacts in construction. This research is about utilization of the integrated applications of automated advanced tracking and data storage technologies in the area of environmental management to monitor and control adverse environmental impacts such as construction waste and carbon dioxide emissions. Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) integrated with the Global Position System (GPS) provides an opportunity to uniquely identify materials, components, and equipments and to locate and track them using minimal or no worker input. The transmission of data to the central database will be carried out with the help of Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM).

Keywords: Clear environment, Construction industry, RFID.

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Authors: Hesham Abdel-Khalek, Sherif M. Hafez, Abdel-Hamid M. el-Lakany, Yasser Abuel-Magd

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Investment in a constructed facility represents a cost in the short term that returns benefits only over the long term use of the facility. Thus, the costs occur earlier than the benefits, and the owners of facilities must obtain the capital resources to finance the costs of construction. A project cannot proceed without an adequate financing, and the cost of providing an adequate financing can be quite large. For these reasons, the attention to the project finance is an important aspect of project management. Finance is also a concern to the other organizations involved in a project such as the general contractor and material suppliers. Unless an owner immediately and completely covers the costs incurred by each participant, these organizations face financing problems of their own. At a more general level, the project finance is the only one aspect of the general problem of corporate finance. If numerous projects are considered and financed together, then the net cash flow requirements constitute the corporate financing problem for capital investment. Whether project finance is performed at the project or at the corporate level does not alter the basic financing problem .In this paper, we will first consider facility financing from the owner's perspective, with due consideration for its interaction with other organizations involved in a project. Later, we discuss the problems of construction financing which are crucial to the profitability and solvency of construction contractors. The objective of this paper is to present the steps utilized to determine the best combination of minimum project financing. The proposed model considers financing; schedule and maximum net area .The proposed model is called Project Financing and Schedule Integration using Genetic Algorithms "PFSIGA". This model intended to determine more steps (maximum net area) for any project with a subproject. An illustrative example will demonstrate the feature of this technique. The model verification and testing are put into consideration.

Keywords: Project Management, Large-scale ConstructionProjects, Cash flow, Interest, Investment, Loan, Optimization, Scheduling, Financing and Genetic Algorithms.

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Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

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The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: Forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody.

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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Authors: Mohamed Chabi, Mohammad Shahid Jamil, Mahmoud I Syam

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The purpose of this study is to determine whether paper assessment especially in the subject mathematics will ever be completely replaced by online assessment using Learning Management System and Content Management System such as blackboard. Testing students has moved from the traditional scribbling and sketching on paper towards working online on a screen and keyboard. It is found that online assessment by using selective types of questions like multiple choices, true or false and final answer questions don’t reflect the actual understanding of students in solving the problems and teachers can’t determine the weakness points of students. In addition, it is showed that OBMCQs are a very good tool for self-assessment and when teachers are testing for knowledge and facts. But when it comes to the skills, OBMCQs are poor tools for measuring the ability to apply knowledge to complex math problem. 

Keywords: Paper assessment, online assessment, learning management system, content management system.

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Authors: M. Csete, G. Szendrö

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The last Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, stating that the greatest risk in climate change affects sustainability is now widely known and accepted. However, it has not provoked substantial reaction and attention in Hungary, while international and national efforts have also not achieved expected results so far. Still, there are numerous examples on different levels (national, regional, local, household) making considerable progress in limiting their own emissions and making steps toward mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The local level is exceptionally important in sustainability adaptation, as local communities are often able to adapt more flexibly to changes in the natural environment.The aim of this paper is to attempt a review of the national climate policy and the local climate change strategies in Hungary considering sustainable development.

Keywords: adaptation, climate policy, mitigation, localsustainability.

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Authors: Ahmed S. Al-Abdulwahab

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Generation system reliability assessment is an important task which can be performed using deterministic or probabilistic techniques. The probabilistic approaches have significant advantages over the deterministic methods. However, more complicated modeling is required by the probabilistic approaches. Power generation model is a basic requirement for this assessment. One form of the generation models is the well known capacity outage probability table (COPT). Different analytical techniques have been used to construct the COPT. These approaches require considerable mathematical modeling of the generating units. The unit-s models are combined to build the COPT which will add more burdens on the process of creating the COPT. Decimal to Binary Conversion (DBC) technique is widely and commonly applied in electronic systems and computing This paper proposes a novel utilization of the DBC to create the COPT without engaging in analytical modeling or time consuming simulations. The simple binary representation , “0 " and “1 " is used to model the states o f generating units. The proposed technique is proven to be an effective approach to build the generation model.

Keywords: Decimal to Binary, generation, reliability.

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: Stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship.

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Authors: A. Leśniak, E. Plebankiewicz, K. Zima

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Construction projects can be implemented under various contractual and organizational systems. They can be divided into two groups: systems without the managing company where the Client manages the process, and systems with the managing company, where management is entrusted to an external company. In the public sector of the Polish market there are two ways of delivery of construction projects with the participation of the manager: one is to assign operations to another party, the so called Project Supervisor, whilst the other results from the application of FIDIC conditions of contract, which entail appointment of the Engineer. The decision is to be made by the Client and depends on various factors. On the public procurement market in Poland the selection of construction project manager boils down to awarding the contract for such a service. The selection can be done by one of eight public procurement procedures identified by the procurement law. The paper provides the analysis of 96 contracts for services awarded in 2011, which employed construction management. The study aimed to investigate the methods and criteria for selecting managers, applied in practice by the Polish public Clients.

Keywords: construction management, construction services, methods and criteria of tender selection, public procurement

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Authors: Fooad Karimi Ghaleh Jough, Mohsen Soori

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Today, the occurrence of progressive failure in structures has become a challenging issue, requiring the presentation of suitable solutions for structural resistance to this phenomenon. It is also necessary to evaluate the vulnerability of existing and under-construction buildings to progressive failure. The kind of lateral load-resisting system the building and its connections have is one of the most significant and influential variables in structural resistance to the risk of progressing failure. Using the "Alternative Path" approach suggested by the GSA2003 and UFC2013 recommendations, different configurations of semi-rigid connections against progressive failure are offered in this study. In order to do this, the Opensees program was used to model nine distinct semi-rigid connection configurations on a three-story Special Area of Conservation (SAC) structure, accounting for the impact of connection stiffness. Then, using nonlinear dynamic analysis, the effects of column removal were explored in two scenarios: corner column removal and middle column removal on the first level. Nonlinear static analysis results showed that when a column is removed, structures with semi-rigid connections experience larger displacements, which result in the construction of a plastic hinge. Furthermore, it was clear from the findings of the nonlinear static analysis that the possibility of progressive failure increased with the number of semi-rigid connections in the structure.

Keywords: Semi-rigid, nonlinear static analysis, progressive collapse, alternative path.

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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In this paper, we present a comparative assessment of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for two-level three phase (2L-3P) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). VSI with associated system is subjected to both control techniques and the results are compared. Matlab/Simulink was used to model, simulate and validate the control schemes. Findings of this study show that MPC is superior to SVPWM in terms of total harmonic distortion (THD) and implementation.

Keywords: Model Predictive Control, Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation, Voltage Source Inverter.

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Authors: Norman Wu, Darren Sun

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Key performance indicators (KPIs) are used for post result evaluation in the construction industry, and they normally do not have provisions for changes. This paper proposes a set of dynamic key performance indicators (d-KPIs) which predicts the future performance of the activity being measured and presents the opportunity to change practice accordingly. Critical to the predictability of a construction project is the ability to achieve automated data collection. This paper proposes an effective way to collect the process and engineering management data from an integrated construction management system. The d-KPI matrix, consisting of various indicators under seven categories, developed from this study can be applied to close monitoring of the development projects of aged-care facilities. The d-KPI matrix also enables performance measurement and comparison at both project and organization levels.

Keywords: Aged-care project, construction, dynamic KPI, healthcare system.

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Authors: Sang Yeong Choi, Woo Sung Park

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This paper presents the architecture design of the robot operability assessment simulation testbed (called "ROAST") for the resolution of robot operability problems occurred during interactions between human operators and robots. The basic idea of the ROAST architecture design is to enable the easy composition of legacy or new simulation models according to its purpose. ROAST architecture is based on IEEE1516 High Level Architecture (HLA) of defense modeling and simulation. The ROAST architecture is expected to provide the foundation framework for the easy construction of a simulation testbed to order to assess the robot operability during the robotic system design. Some of ROAST implementations and its usefulness are demonstrated through a simple illustrative example.

Keywords: Robotic system, modeling and simulation, Simulation architecture.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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A model is presented to find the optimal design of the mixed renewable warranty policy for non-repairable Weibull life products. The optimal design considers the conflict of interests between the customer and the manufacturer: the customer interests are longer full rebate coverage period and longer total warranty coverage period, the manufacturer interests are lower warranty cost and lower risk. The design factors are full rebate and total warranty coverage periods. Results showed that mixed policy is better than full rebate policy in terms of risk and total warranty coverage period in all of the three bathtub regions. In addition, results showed that linear policy is better than mixed policy in infant mortality and constant failure regions while the mixed policy is better than linear policy in ageing region of the model. Furthermore, the results showed that using burn-in period for infant mortality products reduces warranty cost and risk.

Keywords: Reliability, Mixed warranty policy, Optimization, Weibull Distribution.

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Authors: Jongho Park, Jinwoong Choi, Sungnam Hong, Seung-Kyung Kye, Sun-Kyu Park

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Recently, to cope with the rapidly changing construction trend with aging infrastructures, modular bridge technology has been studied actively. Modular bridge is easily constructed by assembling standardized precast structure members in the field. It will be possible to construct rapidly and reduce construction cost efficiently. However, the shape of the transverse connection of T-type girder newly developed between the segmented modules is not verified. Therefore, the verification of the connection shape is needed. In this study, shape of the modular T-girder bridge transverse connection was analyzed by finite element model that was verified in study which was verified model of transverse connection using Abaqus. Connection angle was chosen as the parameter. The result of analyses showed that optimal value of angle is 130 degree.

Keywords: Modular bridge, optimal transverse shape, parameter, FEM.

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Authors: J. Koiso-Kanttila, A. Soikkeli, A. Aapaoja

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Construction in Finland is focusing increasingly on renovation instead of conventional new construction, and this trend will continue to grow in the coming years and decades. Renovation of the large number of suburban residential apartment buildings built in the 1960s and 1970s poses a particular challenge. However, renovation projects are demanding for the residents of these buildings, since they usually are uninitiated in construction issues. On the other hand, renovation projects generally apply the operating models of new construction. Nevertheless, the residents of an existing residential apartment building are some of the best experts on the site. Thus, in this research project we applied a relational model in developing and testing at case sites a planning process that employs interactive planning methods. Current residents, housing company managers, the city zoning manager, the contractor’s and prefab element supplier’s representatives, professional designers and researchers all took part in the planning. The entire interactive planning process progressed phase by phase as the participants’ and designers’ concerted discussion and ideation process, so that the end result was a renovation plan desired by the residents.

Keywords: Apartment building renovation, interactive planning, project alliance, user-orientedness.

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Authors: Refaat H. Abd El Razek, Ahmed M. Diab, Sherif M. Hafez, Remon F. Aziz

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Time-Cost Optimization "TCO" is one of the greatest challenges in construction project planning and control, since the optimization of either time or cost, would usually be at the expense of the other. Since there is a hidden trade-off relationship between project and cost, it might be difficult to predict whether the total cost would increase or decrease as a result of the schedule compression. Recently third dimension in trade-off analysis is taken into consideration that is quality of the projects. Few of the existing algorithms are applied in a case of construction project with threedimensional trade-off analysis, Time-Cost-Quality relationships. The objective of this paper is to presents the development of a practical software system; that named Automatic Multi-objective Typical Construction Resource Optimization System "AMTCROS". This system incorporates the basic concepts of Line Of Balance "LOB" and Critical Path Method "CPM" in a multi-objective Genetic Algorithms "GAs" model. The main objective of this system is to provide a practical support for typical construction planners who need to optimize resource utilization in order to minimize project cost and duration while maximizing its quality simultaneously. The application of these research developments in planning the typical construction projects holds a strong promise to: 1) Increase the efficiency of resource use in typical construction projects; 2) Reduce construction duration period; 3) Minimize construction cost (direct cost plus indirect cost); and 4) Improve the quality of newly construction projects. A general description of the proposed software for the Time-Cost-Quality Trade-Off "TCQTO" is presented. The main inputs and outputs of the proposed software are outlined. The main subroutines and the inference engine of this software are detailed. The complexity analysis of the software is discussed. In addition, the verification, and complexity of the proposed software are proved and tested using a real case study.

Keywords: Project management, typical (repetitive) large scale projects, line of balance, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithms, time-cost-quality trade-offs.

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Authors: Eberechi Weli, Michael Todinov

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The gap between the selection of risk-reduction options in the railway industry and the task of their effective implementation results in compromised safety and substantial losses. An effective risk management must necessarily integrate the evaluation phases with the implementation phase. This paper proposes an essential categorisation of risk reduction measures that best addresses a standard railway industry portfolio. By categorising the risk reduction options into design, operational, procedural and technical options, it is guaranteed that the efforts of the implementation facilitators (people, processes and supporting systems) are systematically harmonised. The classification is based on an integration of fundamental principles of risk reduction in the railway industry with the systems engineering approach.

This paper argues that the use of a similar classification approach is an attribute of organisations possessing a superior level of risk-reduction readiness. The integration of the proposed rational classification structure provides a solid ground for effective risk reduction.

Keywords: Cost effectiveness, organisational readiness, risk reduction, railway, system engineering.

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Authors: Sujata Upgupta, Prasoon Kumar Singh

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The expansion of large scale coal mining into forest areas is a potential hazard for the local biodiversity and wildlife. The objective of this study is to provide a picture of the threat that coal mining poses to the forests of the East Bokaro landscape. The vulnerable forest areas at risk have been assessed and the priority areas for conservation have been presented. The forested areas at risk in the current scenario have been assessed and compared with the past conditions using classification and buffer based overlay approach. Forest vulnerability has been assessed using an analytical framework based on systematic indicators and composite vulnerability index values. The results indicate that more than 4 km² of forests have been lost from 1973 to 2016. Large patches of forests have been diverted for coal mining projects. Forests in the northern part of the coal field within 1-3 km radius around the coal mines are at immediate risk. The original contiguous forests have been converted into fragmented and degraded forest patches. Most of the collieries are located within or very close to the forests thus threatening the biodiversity and hydrology of the surrounding regions. Based on the vulnerability values estimated, it was concluded that more than 90% of the forested grids in East Bokaro are highly vulnerable to mining. The forests in the sub-districts of Bermo and Chandrapura have been identified as the most vulnerable to coal mining activities. This case study would add to the capacity of the forest managers and mine managers to address the risk and vulnerability of forests at a small landscape level in order to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords: Coal mining, forest, indicators, vulnerability.

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Authors: Fong-Woon Lai

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The risk sphere in business is fast changing and expanding. Almost anything has become a risk factor that will have potent, direct, and far reaching impacts on business. This paper examines the intensity of enterprise risk management (ERM) practices among the Malaysian public listed companies. The paper espouses a ERM framework comprising fourteen important implementation elements and processes. Results of the analysis indicate that the intensity of ERM implementation among the respondents is in the ‘good’ category of the semantic scale, which is deemed encouraging vis-à-vis the country’s regulatory regime.

Keywords: Enterprise risk management, implementation framework, ERM practices.

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Authors: Mohammad Aziz Shah Mohamed Arip, Aslina Ahmad, Fauziah Mohd Sa'ad, Samsiah Mohd Jais, Syed Sofian Syed Salim

Abstract:

This experimental study evaluates the effect of using Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Multidimensional Self- Concept Model (MSCM) in a drug prevention programme to increase resiliency and reduce aggression among at-risk youth in Malaysia. A number of 60 (N=60) university students who were at-risk of taking drugs were involved in this study. Participants were identified with self-rating scales, Adolescent Resilience Attitude Scale (ARAS) and Aggression Questionnaire. Based on the mean score of these instruments, the participants were divided into the treatment group, and the control group. Data were analyzed using t-test. The finding showed that the mean score of resiliency was increased in the treatment group compared to the control group. It also shows that the mean score of aggression was reduced in the treatment group compared to the control group. Drug Prevention Programme was found to help in enhancing resiliency and reducing aggression among participants in the treatment group compared to the controlled group. Implications were given regarding the preventive actions on drug abuse among youth in Malaysia.

Keywords: Drug Prevention Programme, Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT), Multidimensional Self Concept Model (MSCM), resiliency, aggression, at-risk youth.

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Authors: Fernanda M. Assef, Maria Teresinha A. Steiner

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to compare and discuss better classifier algorithm options for credit risk assessment by applying different Machine Learning techniques. Using records from a Brazilian financial institution, this study uses a database of 5,432 companies that are clients of the bank, where 2,600 clients are classified as non-defaulters, 1,551 are classified as defaulters and 1,281 are temporarily defaulters, meaning that the clients are overdue on their payments for up 180 days. For each case, a total of 15 attributes was considered for a one-against-all assessment using four different techniques: Artificial Neural Networks Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP), Artificial Neural Networks Radial Basis Functions (ANN-RBF), Logistic Regression (LR) and finally Support Vector Machines (SVM). For each method, different parameters were analyzed in order to obtain different results when the best of each technique was compared. Initially the data were coded in thermometer code (numerical attributes) or dummy coding (for nominal attributes). The methods were then evaluated for each parameter and the best result of each technique was compared in terms of accuracy, false positives, false negatives, true positives and true negatives. This comparison showed that the best method, in terms of accuracy, was ANN-RBF (79.20% for non-defaulter classification, 97.74% for defaulters and 75.37% for the temporarily defaulter classification). However, the best accuracy does not always represent the best technique. For instance, on the classification of temporarily defaulters, this technique, in terms of false positives, was surpassed by SVM, which had the lowest rate (0.07%) of false positive classifications. All these intrinsic details are discussed considering the results found, and an overview of what was presented is shown in the conclusion of this study.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, ANNs, classifier algorithms, credit risk assessment, logistic regression, machine learning, support vector machines.

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