Search results for: Hierarchical Temporal Memory

Authors: H. Lang, M. Bader, A. Buchroithner

Abstract:

Holistic methods covering the development process as a whole – e.g. systems engineering – have established themselves in product design. However, technical product optimization, representing improvements in efficiency and/or minimization of loss, usually applies to single components of a system. A holistic approach is being defined based on a hierarchical point of view of systems engineering. This is subsequently presented using the example of an electromechanical flywheel energy storage system for automotive applications.

Keywords: Design, product development, product optimization, systems engineering, flywheel energy storage.

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Authors: Manuel Ceballos, Juan Nunez, Angel F. Tenorio

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The set of all abelian subalgebras is computationally obtained for any given finite-dimensional Lie algebra, starting from the nonzero brackets in its law. More concretely, an algorithm is described and implemented to compute a basis for each nontrivial abelian subalgebra with the help of the symbolic computation package MAPLE. Finally, it is also shown a brief computational study for this implementation, considering both the computing time and the used memory.

Keywords: Solvable Lie algebra, maximal abelian dimension, algorithm.

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Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Naser Fakori Ivand, Fereshteh Azarifam

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Inter-rill erosion is the detachment and transfer of soil particles between the rills which occurs due to the impact of raindrops and the shear stress of shallow surface runoff. This erosion can be affected by some soil properties such as texture, amount of organic matter and stability of soil aggregates. Information on the temporal variation of inter-rill erosion during a rainfall event and the effect of soil properties on it can help develop better methods to soil conservation in the hillslopes. The importance of this study is especially grate in semi-arid regions, where the soil is weakly aggregated and vegetation cover is mostly poor. Therefore, this research was conducted to investigate the temporal variation of surface flow and inter-rill erosion and the effect of soil properties on it in some semi-arid soils. A field experiment was done in eight different soil textures under simulated rainfalls with uniform intensity. A total of twenty four plots were installed for eight study soils with three replicates in the form of a random complete block design along the land. The plots were 1.2 m (length) × 1 m (width) in dimensions which designed with a distance of 3 m from each other across the slope. Then, soil samples were purred into the plots. Rainfall simulation experiments were done using a designed portable simulator with an intensity of 60 mm per hour for 60 minutes. Runoff production and soil loss were measured during 1 hour time with 5-min intervals. Soil properties including particle size distribution, aggregate stability, bulk density, exchangeable sodium percentages (ESP) and hydraulic conductivity (Ks) were determined in the soil samples. Correlation and regression analysis was done to determine the effect of soil properties on runoff and inter-rill erosion. Results indicated that the study soils have lower both organic matter content and aggregate stability. The soils, except for coarse textured textures, are calcareous and with relatively higher ESP. Runoff production and soil loss did not occur in sand texture, which was associated with higher infiltration and drainage rates. A strong relationship was found between inter-rill erosion and surface runoff (R2 = 0.75, p < 0.01). The correlation analysis showed that surface runoff was significantly affected by some soil properties consisting of sand, silt, clay, bulk density, gravel, Ks, lime (calcium carbonate), and ESP. The soils with lower Ks such as fine-textured soils, produced higher surface runoff and more inter-rill erosion. In the soils, surface runoff production temporally increased during rainfall and finally reached a peak after about 25-35 min. Time to peak was very short (30 min) in fine-textured soils, especially clay, which was related to their lower infiltration rate.

Keywords: Erosion plot, rainfall simulator, soil properties, surface flow.

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Authors: Ç. Gökçek-Saraç, Ş. Özen, N. Derin

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The N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA)-dependent pathway is the major intracellular signaling pathway implemented in both short- and long-term memory formation in the hippocampus which is the most studied brain structure because of its well documented role in learning and memory. However, little is known about the effects of RF-EMR exposure on NMDA receptor signaling pathway including activation of protein kinases, notably Ca²⁺/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II alpha (CaMKIIα). The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of acute and chronic 900 MHz RF-EMR exposure on both passive avoidance behaviour and hippocampal levels of CaMKIIα and its phosphorylated form (pCaMKIIα). Rats were divided into the following groups: Sham rats, and rats exposed to 900 MHz RF-EMR for 2 h/day for 1 week (acute group) or 10 weeks (chronic group), respectively. Passive avoidance task was used as a behavioural method. The hippocampal levels of selected kinases were measured using Western Blotting technique. The results of passive avoidance task showed that both acute and chronic exposure to 900 MHz RF-EMR can impair passive avoidance behaviour with minor effects on chronic group of rats. The analysis of western blot data of selected protein kinases demonstrated that hippocampal levels of CaMKIIα and pCaMKIIα were significantly higher in chronic group of rats as compared to acute groups. Taken together, these findings demonstrated that different duration times (1 week vs 10 weeks) of 900 MHz RF-EMR exposure have different effects on both passive avoidance behaviour of rats and hippocampal levels of selected protein kinases.

Keywords: Hippocampus, protein kinase, rat, RF-EMR.

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Authors: Milad Kurdi, Hadi Farhadian, Teymour Eslamkish

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This study examined the hydro-geochemistry of Qare-Sou catchment and Gorgan Gulf in order to determine the spatial distribution of major ions. In this regard, six hydrometer stations in the catchment and four stations in Gorgan Gulf were chosen and the samples were collected. Results of spatial and temporal distribution of major ions have shown similar variation trends for calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate ions. Also, the spatial trend of chloride, sulfate, sodium and potassium ions were same as Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Total Dissolved Solid (TDS). In Nahar Khoran station, the concentrations of ions were more than other stations which may be related to human activities and the role of geology. The Siah Ab station’s ions showed high concentration which is may be related to the station’s close proximity to Gorgan Gulf and the return of water to Qare-Sou River. In order to determine the interaction of water and rock, the Gibbs diagram was used and the results showed that water of the river falls in the rock range and it is affected more by weathering and reaction between water and stone and less by evaporation and crystallization. Assessment of the quality of river water by using graphic methods indicated that the type of water in this area is Ca-HCO₃-Mg. Major ions concentration in Qare-Sou in the universal average was more than but not more than the allowed limit by the World Health Organization and China Standard Organization. A comparison of ions concentration in Gorgan Gulf, seas and oceans showed that the pH in Gorgan Gulf was more than the other seas but in Gorgan Gulf the concentration of anion and cation was less than other seas.

Keywords: Hydro-geochemistry, Qare-Sou River, Gorgan Gulf, major ions, Gibbs diagram, water quality, graphical methods.

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Authors: Adla Bentellis, Zizette Boufaïda

Abstract:

Nowadays, the pace of business change is such that, increasingly, new functionality has to be realized and reliably installed in a matter of days, or even hours. Consequently, more and more business processes are prone to a continuous change. The objective of the research in progress is to use the MAP model, in a conceptual modeling method for flexible and adaptive business process. This method can be used to capture the flexibility dimensions of a business process; it takes inspiration from modularity concept in the object oriented paradigm to establish a hierarchical construction of the BP modeling. Its intent is to provide a flexible modeling that allows companies to quickly adapt their business processes.

Keywords: Business Process, Business process modeling, flexibility, MAP Model.

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Authors: Mahfuz Judeh

Abstract:

The main aim of the current study was to examine the effect of emotional intelligence on retention. The study also aimed at analyzing the role of job involvement, as a moderator, in the effect of emotional intelligence on retention. Using data gathered from 241 employees working with hotels and tourism corporations listed in Amman Stock Exchange in Jordan, emotional intelligence, job involvement and retention were measured. Hierarchical regression analyses were used to test the three main hypotheses. Results indicated that retention was related to emotional intelligence. Moreover, the study yielded support for the claim that job involvement had a moderating effect on the relationship between emotional intelligence and retention.

Keywords: Emotional Intelligence, Job Involvement, Jordan, Retention.

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Authors: M. Kutila, J. Viitanen

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This paper presents image compression with wavelet based method. The wavelet transformation divides image to low- and high pass filtered parts. The traditional JPEG compression technique requires lower computation power with feasible losses, when only compression is needed. However, there is obvious need for wavelet based methods in certain circumstances. The methods are intended to the applications in which the image analyzing is done parallel with compression. Furthermore, high frequency bands can be used to detect changes or edges. Wavelets enable hierarchical analysis for low pass filtered sub-images. The first analysis can be done for a small image, and only if any interesting is found, the whole image is processed or reconstructed.

Keywords: image compression, jpeg, wavelet, vlc

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Authors: Mehdi Tatari

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Finding the interpolation function of a given set of nodes is an important problem in scientific computing. In this work a kind of localization is introduced using the radial basis functions which finds a sufficiently smooth solution without consuming large amount of time and computer memory. Some examples will be presented to show the efficiency of the new method.

Keywords: Radial basis functions, local interpolation method, closed form solution.

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Authors: B. Golchin, N. Riahi

Abstract:

One of the most significant issues as attended a lot in recent years is that of recognizing the sentiments and emotions in social media texts. The analysis of sentiments and emotions is intended to recognize the conceptual information such as the opinions, feelings, attitudes and emotions of people towards the products, services, organizations, people, topics, events and features in the written text. These indicate the greatness of the problem space. In the real world, businesses and organizations are always looking for tools to gather ideas, emotions, and directions of people about their products, services, or events related to their own. This article uses the Twitter social network, one of the most popular social networks with about 420 million active users, to extract data. Using this social network, users can share their information and opinions about personal issues, policies, products, events, etc. It can be used with appropriate classification of emotional states due to the availability of its data. In this study, supervised learning and deep neural network algorithms are used to classify the emotional states of Twitter users. The use of deep learning methods to increase the learning capacity of the model is an advantage due to the large amount of available data. Tweets collected on various topics are classified into four classes using a combination of two Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory network and a Convolutional network. The results obtained from this study with an average accuracy of 93%, show good results extracted from the proposed framework and improved accuracy compared to previous work.

Keywords: emotion classification, sentiment analysis, social networks, deep neural networks

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Authors: Dante J. Dorantes-González, Aldrin Balsa-Yepes

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Existing learning techniques such as problem-based learning, project-based learning, or case study learning are learning techniques that focus mainly on technical details, but give no specific guidelines on learner’s experience and emotional learning aspects such as arousal salience and valence, being emotional states important factors affecting engagement and retention. Some approaches involving emotion in educational settings, such as social and emotional learning, lack neuroscientific rigorousness and use of specific neurobiological mechanisms. On the other hand, neurobiology approaches lack educational applicability. And educational approaches mainly focus on cognitive aspects and disregard conditioning learning. First, authors start explaining the reasons why it is hard to learn thoughtfully, then they use the method of neurobiological mapping to track the main limbic system functions, such as the reward circuit, and its relations with perception, memories, motivations, sympathetic and parasympathetic reactions, and sensations, as well as the brain cortex. The authors conclude explaining the major finding: The mechanisms of nonconscious learning and the triggers that guarantee long-term memory potentiation. Afterward, the educational framework for practical application and the instructors’ guidelines are established. An implementation example in engineering education is given, namely, the study of tuned-mass dampers for earthquake oscillations attenuation in skyscrapers. This work represents an original learning technique based on nonconscious learning mechanisms to enhance long-term memories that complement existing cognitive learning methods.

Keywords: Emotion, emotion-enhanced memory, learning technique, STEM.

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Authors: Costas S. Iliopoulos, Spiros Michalakopoulos

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A new, combinatorial model for analyzing and inter- preting an electrocardiogram (ECG) is presented. An application of the model is QRS peak detection. This is demonstrated with an online algorithm, which is shown to be space as well as time efficient. Experimental results on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database show that this novel approach is promising. Further uses for this approach are discussed, such as taking advantage of its small memory requirements and interpreting large amounts of pre-recorded ECG data.

Keywords: Combinatorics, ECG analysis, MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database, QRS Detection, String Algorithms

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Authors: XueSong Yu, JiaFeng Liu, XiangLong Tang, JianHua Huang

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For improving the efficiency of human 3D tracking, we present an algorithm to track 3D Arm Motion. First, the Hierarchy Limb Model (HLM) is proposed based on the human 3D skeleton model. Second, via graph decomposition, the arm motion state space, modeled by HLM, can be discomposed into two low dimension subspaces: root nodes and leaf nodes. Finally, Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter is used to estimate the 3D arm motion. The result of experiment shows that our algorithm can advance the computation efficiency.

Keywords: Hierarchy Limb Model; Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter; 3D tracking

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Authors: Abdel Rodríguez, Isis Bonet, Ricardo Grau, María M. García

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In this paper we designed and implemented a new ensemble of classifiers based on a sequence of classifiers which were specialized in regions of the training dataset where errors of its trained homologous are concentrated. In order to separate this regions, and to determine the aptitude of each classifier to properly respond to a new case, it was used another set of classifiers built hierarchically. We explored a selection based variant to combine the base classifiers. We validated this model with different base classifiers using 37 training datasets. It was carried out a statistical comparison of these models with the well known Bagging and Boosting, obtaining significantly superior results with the hierarchical ensemble using Multilayer Perceptron as base classifier. Therefore, we demonstrated the efficacy of the proposed ensemble, as well as its applicability to general problems.

Keywords: classifiers, delegation, ensemble

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Authors: Khaled Ahmed Kadouh, Kamal Ali Albashiri

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This paper presents a designed algorithm involves improvement of transferring data over Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP). The aim of this work is to establish whether using SOAP in exchanging XML messages has any added advantages or not. The results showed that XML messages without SOAP take longer time and consume more memory, especially with binary data.

Keywords: JAX-WS, SMTP, SOAP, Web service, XML.

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Authors: Laureano Rodríguez, Gladys Casas, Ricardo Grau, Yailen Martínez

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The classical temporal scan statistic is often used to identify disease clusters. In recent years, this method has become as a very popular technique and its field of application has been notably increased. Many bioinformatic problems have been solved with this technique. In this paper a new scan fuzzy method is proposed. The behaviors of classic and fuzzy scan techniques are studied with simulated data. ROC curves are calculated, being demonstrated the superiority of the fuzzy scan technique.

Keywords: Scan statistic, fuzzy scan, simulating study

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Authors: M. Jarocka

Abstract:

The paper contains a review of the literature in terms of the critical analysis of methodologies of university ranking systems. Furthermore, the initiatives supported by the European Commission (U-Map, U-Multirank) and CHE Ranking are described. Special attention is paid to the tendencies in the development of ranking systems. According to the author, the ranking organizations should abandon the classic form of ranking, namely a hierarchical ordering of universities from “the best" to “the worse". In the empirical part of this paper, using one of the method of cluster analysis called k-means clustering, the author presents university classifications of the top universities from the Shanghai Jiao Tong University-s (SJTU) Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU).

Keywords: Classification, cluster analysis, ranking, university.

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Authors: Chih-Feng Chuang, Shih-Ching Shiu, Chao-Jen Cheng

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among students- process of study, creative self-efficacy and creativity while attending college. A total of 60 students enrolled in Hsiuping Institute of Technology in central Taiwan were selected as samples for the study. The instruments for this study included three questionnaires to explore the aforesaid aspects. This researchers tested creative self-efficacy and process of study, and creativity with Pearson correlation and hierarchical regression analyses. The major findings of this research are (1) the process of study had direct positive predictability on creativity, and (2) the relationship between process of study and creativity is partially mediated by creative self-efficacy.

Keywords: Process of study, Creative self-efficacy, Creativity

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Authors: Haruo Okabayashi

Abstract:

Human biological signals (pulse wave and brain wave, etc.) have a rhythm which shows fluctuations. This study investigates the relationship between fluctuations of biological signals which are shown by a finger plethysmogram (i.e., finger pulse wave) in conversation and anthropophobic tendency, and identifies whether the fluctuation could be an index of mental health. 32 college students participated in the experiment. The finger plethysmogram of each subject was measured in the following conversation situations: Fun memory talking/listening situation and regrettable memory talking/ listening situation for three minutes each. Lyspect 3.5 was used to collect the data of the finger plethysmogram. Since Lyspect calculates the Lyapunov spectrum, it is possible to obtain the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). LLE is an indicator of the fluctuation and shows the degree to which a measure is going away from close proximity to the track in a dynamical system. Before the finger plethysmogram experiment, each participant took the psychological test questionnaire “Anthropophobic Scale.” The scale measures the social phobia trend close to the consciousness of social phobia. It is revealed that there is a remarkable relationship between the fluctuation of the finger plethysmography and anthropophobic tendency scale in talking about a regrettable story in conversation: The participants (N=15) who have a low anthropophobic tendency show significantly more fluctuation of finger pulse waves than the participants (N=17) who have a high anthropophobic tendency (F (1, 31) =5.66, p<0.05). That is, the participants who have a low anthropophobic tendency make conversation flexibly using large fluctuation of biological signal; on the other hand, the participants who have a high anthropophobic tendency constrain a conversation because of small fluctuation. Therefore, fluctuation is not an error but an important drive to make better relationships with others and go towards the development of interaction. In considering mental health, the fluctuation of biological signals would be an important indicator.

Keywords: Anthropophobic tendency, finger plethymogram, fluctuation of biological signal, LLE.

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Hwan-Jun Choi, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

Among spatial diversity scheme, orthogonal space-time block code (OSTBC) and cyclic delay diversity (CDD) have been widely studied for the cooperative wireless relaying system. However, conventional OSTBC and CDD cannot cope with change in the number of relays owing to low throughput or error performance. In this paper, we propose a cooperative cyclic delay diversity (CDD) scheme that use hierarchical modulation at the source and adaptive modulation based on cyclic redundancy check (CRC) code at the relays.

Keywords: Adaptive modulation, Cooperative communication, CDD, OSTBC.

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Authors: Tetsuya Furukawa, Masahiro Kuzunishi

Abstract:

Collected data must be organized to be utilized efficiently, and hierarchical classification of data is efficient approach to organize data. When data is classified to multiple categories or annotated with a set of labels, users request multi-labeled data by giving a set of labels. There are several interpretations of the data expressed by a set of labels. This paper discusses which data is expressed by a set of labels by introducing orders for sets of labels and shows that there are four types of orders, which are characterized by whether the labels of expressed data includes every label of the given set of labels within the range of the set. Desirable properties of the orders, data is also expressed by the higher set of labels and different sets of labels express different data, are discussed for the orders.

Keywords: Classification Hierarchies, Multi-labeled Data, Multiple Classificaiton, Orders of Sets of Labels

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Authors: G. S. Ayyappan, Srinivas Kota, Jaffer R. C. Sheriff, C. Prakash Chandra Joshua

Abstract:

In the present scenario of energy crises, energy conservation in the electrical machines is very important in the industries. In order to conserve energy, one needs to monitor the performance of an induction motor on-site and in-situ. The instruments available for this purpose are very meager and very expensive. This paper deals with the design and development of induction motor performance analyser on-line, on-site, and in-situ. The system measures only few electrical input parameters like input voltage, line current, power factor, frequency, powers, and motor shaft speed. These measured data are coupled to name plate details and compute the operating efficiency of induction motor. This system employs the method of computing motor losses with the help of equivalent circuit parameters. The equivalent circuit parameters of the concerned motor are estimated using the developed algorithm at any load conditions and stored in the system memory. The developed instrument is a reliable, accurate, compact, rugged, and cost-effective one. This portable instrument could be used as a handy tool to study the performance of both slip ring and cage induction motors. During the analysis, the data can be stored in SD Memory card and one can perform various analyses like load vs. efficiency, torque vs. speed characteristics, etc. With the help of the developed instrument, one can operate the motor around its Best Operating Point (BOP). Continuous monitoring of the motor efficiency could lead to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of motors. LCA helps in taking decisions on motor replacement or retaining or refurbishment.

Keywords: Energy conservation, equivalent circuit parameters, induction motor efficiency, life cycle assessment, motor performance analysis.

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Authors: Yehjune Heo

Abstract:

As biometric systems become widely deployed, the security of identification systems can be easily attacked by various spoof materials. This paper contributes to finding a reliable and practical anti-spoofing method using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) based on the types of loss functions and optimizers. The types of CNNs used in this paper include AlexNet, VGGNet, and ResNet. By using various loss functions including Cross-Entropy, Center Loss, Cosine Proximity, and Hinge Loss, and various loss optimizers which include Adam, SGD, RMSProp, Adadelta, Adagrad, and Nadam, we obtained significant performance changes. We realize that choosing the correct loss function for each model is crucial since different loss functions lead to different errors on the same evaluation. By using a subset of the Livdet 2017 database, we validate our approach to compare the generalization power. It is important to note that we use a subset of LiveDet and the database is the same across all training and testing for each model. This way, we can compare the performance, in terms of generalization, for the unseen data across all different models. The best CNN (AlexNet) with the appropriate loss function and optimizers result in more than 3% of performance gain over the other CNN models with the default loss function and optimizer. In addition to the highest generalization performance, this paper also contains the models with high accuracy associated with parameters and mean average error rates to find the model that consumes the least memory and computation time for training and testing. Although AlexNet has less complexity over other CNN models, it is proven to be very efficient. For practical anti-spoofing systems, the deployed version should use a small amount of memory and should run very fast with high anti-spoofing performance. For our deployed version on smartphones, additional processing steps, such as quantization and pruning algorithms, have been applied in our final model.

Keywords: Anti-spoofing, CNN, fingerprint recognition, loss function, optimizer.

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Authors: Z. G. Wang, M. Rahman, Y. S. Wong, K. S. Neo

Abstract:

In this paper, a new hybrid of genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), referred to as GSA, is presented. In this algorithm, SA is incorporated into GA to escape from local optima. The concept of hierarchical parallel GA is employed to parallelize GSA for the optimization of multimodal functions. In addition, multi-niche crowding is used to maintain the diversity in the population of the parallel GSA (PGSA). The performance of the proposed algorithms is evaluated against a standard set of multimodal benchmark functions. The multi-niche crowding PGSA and normal PGSA show some remarkable improvement in comparison with the conventional parallel genetic algorithm and the breeder genetic algorithm (BGA).

Keywords: Crowding, genetic algorithm, parallel geneticalgorithm, simulated annealing.

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Authors: V. Tereshchenko, V. Muravitskiy

Abstract:

We consider the methods of construction simple polygons for a set S of n points and applying them for searching the minimal area polygon. In this paper we propose the approximate algorithm, which generates the simple polygonalizations of a fixed set of points and finds the minimal area polygon, in O (n3) time and using O(n2) memory.

Keywords: simple polygon, approximate algorithm, minimal area polygon, polygonalizations

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Authors: Mohammed Fethi Khalfi, Malika Kandouci

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Over the past decade, mobile has experienced a revolution that will ultimately change the way we communicate.All these technologies have a common denominator exploitation of computer information systems, but their operation can be tedious because of problems with heterogeneous data sources.To overcome the problems of heterogeneous data sources, we propose to use a technique of adding an extra layer interfacing applications of management or supervision at the different data sources.This layer will be materialized by the implementation of a mediator between different host applications and information systems frequently used hierarchical and relational manner such that the heterogeneity is completely transparent to the VoIP platform.

Keywords: TOIP, Data Integration, Mediation, informationcomputer system, heterogeneous data sources

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Authors: Rehab I. Abdul Rahman, Mazhar B. Tayel

Abstract:

This paper presents a method of hardening the 8051 micro-controller, able to assure reliable operation in the presence of bit flips caused by radiation. Aiming at avoiding such faults in the 8051 micro-controller, Hamming code protection was used in its SRAM memory and registers. A VHDL code has been used for this hamming code protection.

Keywords: Radiation, hardening, bitflip, hamming code.

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Authors: Rahma Souli-Jbali, Minyar Sassi Hidri, Rahma Ben Ayed

Abstract:

Grid of computing nodes has emerged as a representative means of connecting distributed computers or resources scattered all over the world for the purpose of computing and distributed storage. Since fault tolerance becomes complex due to the availability of resources in decentralized grid environment, it can be used in connection with replication in data grids. The objective of our work is to present fault tolerance in data grids with data replication-driven model based on clustering. The performance of the protocol is evaluated with Omnet++ simulator. The computational results show the efficiency of our protocol in terms of recovery time and the number of process in rollbacks.

Keywords: Data grids, fault tolerance, chandy-lamport, clustering.

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Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

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The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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Authors: M. Vivodík, Ž. Balážová, Z. Gálová

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The aim of this work was to detect genetic variability among the set of 40 castor genotypes using 8 RAPD markers. Amplification of genomic DNA of 40 genotypes, using RAPD analysis, yielded in 66 fragments, with an average of 8.25 polymorphic fragments per primer. Number of amplified fragments ranged from 3 to 13, with the size of amplicons ranging from 100 to 1200 bp. Values of the polymorphic information content (PIC) value ranged from 0.556 to 0.895 with an average of 0.784 and diversity index (DI) value ranged from 0.621 to 0.896 with an average of 0.798. The dendrogram based on hierarchical cluster analysis using UPGMA algorithm was prepared and analyzed genotypes were grouped into two main clusters and only two genotypes could not be distinguished. Knowledge on the genetic diversity of castor can be used for future breeding programs for increased oil production for industrial uses.

Keywords: Dendrogram, polymorphism, RAPD technique, Ricinus communis L.

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