Search results for: Elliptic curve
43 A Study on Algorithm Fusion for Recognition and Tracking of Moving Robot
Authors: Jungho Choi, Youngwan Cho
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This paper presents an algorithm for the recognition and tracking of moving objects, 1/10 scale model car is used to verify performance of the algorithm. Presented algorithm for the recognition and tracking of moving objects in the paper is as follows. SURF algorithm is merged with Lucas-Kanade algorithm. SURF algorithm has strong performance on contrast, size, rotation changes and it recognizes objects but it is slow due to many computational complexities. Processing speed of Lucas-Kanade algorithm is fast but the recognition of objects is impossible. Its optical flow compares the previous and current frames so that can track the movement of a pixel. The fusion algorithm is created in order to solve problems which occurred using the Kalman Filter to estimate the position and the accumulated error compensation algorithm was implemented. Kalman filter is used to create presented algorithm to complement problems that is occurred when fusion two algorithms. Kalman filter is used to estimate next location, compensate for the accumulated error. The resolution of the camera (Vision Sensor) is fixed to be 640x480. To verify the performance of the fusion algorithm, test is compared to SURF algorithm under three situations, driving straight, curve, and recognizing cars behind the obstacles. Situation similar to the actual is possible using a model vehicle. Proposed fusion algorithm showed superior performance and accuracy than the existing object recognition and tracking algorithms. We will improve the performance of the algorithm, so that you can experiment with the images of the actual road environment.Keywords: SURF, Optical Flow Lucas-Kanade, Kalman Filter, object recognition, object tracking.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 229242 Stresses Distribution in Spot, Bonded, and Weld- Bonded Joints during the Process of Axial Load
Authors: Essam A. Al-Bahkali, Mahir H. Es-saheb, Jonny Herwan
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In this study the elastic-plastic stress distribution in weld-bonded joint, fabricated from austenitic stainless steel (AISI 304) sheet of 1.00 mm thickness and Epoxy adhesive Araldite 2011, subjected to axial loading is investigated. This is needed to improve design procedures and welding codes, and saving efforts in the cumbersome experiments and analysis. Therefore, a complete 3-D finite element modelling and analysis of spot welded, bonded and weld-bonded joints under axial loading conditions is carried out. A comprehensive systematic experimental program is conducted to determine many properties and quantities, of the base metals and the adhesive, needed for FE modelling, such like the elastic – plastic properties, modulus of elasticity, fracture limit, the nugget and heat affected zones (HAZ) properties, etc. Consequently, the finite element models developed, for each case, are used to evaluate stresses distributions across the entire joint, in both the elastic and plastic regions. The stress distribution curves are obtained, particularly in the elastic regions and found to be consistent and in excellent agreement with the published data. Furthermore, the stresses distributions are obtained in the weld-bonded joint and display the best results with almost uniform smooth distribution compared to spot and bonded cases. The stress concentration peaks at the edges of the weld-bonded region, are almost eliminated resulting in achieving the strongest joint of all processes.Keywords: Spot Welded, Weld-Bonded, Load-Displacement curve, Stress distribution
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 257241 Evaluating Probable Bending of Frames for Near-Field and Far-Field Records
Authors: Majid Saaly, Shahriar Tavousi Tafreshi, Mehdi Nazari Afshar
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Most reinforced concrete structures are designed only under heavy loads have large transverse reinforcement spacing values, and therefore suffer severe failure after intense ground movements. The main goal of this paper is to compare the shear- and axial failure of concrete bending frames available in Tehran using Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) under near- and far-field records. For this purpose, IDA of 5, 10, and 15-story concrete structures were done under seven far-fault records and five near-faults records. The results show that in two-dimensional models of short-rise, mid-rise and high-rise reinforced concrete frames located on Type-3 soil, increasing the distance of the transverse reinforcement can increase the maximum inter-story drift ratio values up to 37%. According to the existing results on 5, 10, and 15-story reinforced concrete models located on Type-3 soil, records with characteristics such as fling-step and directivity create maximum drift values between floors more than far-fault earthquakes. The results indicated that in the case of seismic excitation modes under earthquake encompassing directivity or fling-step, the probability values of failure and failure possibility increasing rate values are much smaller than the corresponding values of far-fault earthquakes. However, in near-fault frame records, the probability of exceedance occurs at lower seismic intensities compared to far-fault records.
Keywords: Directivity, fling-step, fragility curve, IDA, inter story drift ratio.v
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 36440 A Study on Integrated Performance of Tap-Changing Transformer and SVC in Association with Power System Voltage Stability
Authors: Mahmood Reza Shakarami, Reza Sedaghati
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Electricity market activities and a growing demand for electricity have led to heavily stressed power systems. This requires operation of the networks closer to their stability limits. Power system operation is affected by stability related problems, leading to unpredictable system behavior. Voltage stability refers to the ability of a power system to sustain appropriate voltage levels through large and small disturbances. Steady-state voltage stability is concerned with limits on the existence of steady-state operating points for the network. FACTS devices can be utilized to increase the transmission capacity, the stability margin and dynamic behavior or serve to ensure improved power quality. Their main capabilities are reactive power compensation, voltage control and power flow control. Among the FACTS controllers, Static Var Compensator (SVC) provides fast acting dynamic reactive compensation for voltage support during contingency events. In this paper, voltage stability assessment with appropriate representations of tap-changer transformers and SVC is investigated. Integrating both of these devices is the main topic of this paper. Effect of the presence of tap-changing transformers on static VAR compensator controller parameters and ratings necessary to stabilize load voltages at certain values are highlighted. The interrelation between transformer off nominal tap ratios and the SVC controller gains and droop slopes and the SVC rating are found. P-V curves are constructed to calculate loadability margins.
Keywords: SVC, voltage stability, P-V curve, reactive power, tap changing transformer.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 302239 CT Medical Images Denoising Based on New Wavelet Thresholding Compared with Curvelet and Contourlet
Authors: Amir Moslemi, Amir Movafeghi, Shahab Moradi
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One of the most important challenging factors in medical images is nominated as noise. Image denoising refers to the improvement of a digital medical image that has been infected by Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN). The digital medical image or video can be affected by different types of noises. They are impulse noise, Poisson noise and AWGN. Computed tomography (CT) images are subjects to low quality due to the noise. Quality of CT images is dependent on absorbed dose to patients directly in such a way that increase in absorbed radiation, consequently absorbed dose to patients (ADP), enhances the CT images quality. In this manner, noise reduction techniques on purpose of images quality enhancement exposing no excess radiation to patients is one the challenging problems for CT images processing. In this work, noise reduction in CT images was performed using two different directional 2 dimensional (2D) transformations; i.e., Curvelet and Contourlet and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) thresholding methods of BayesShrink and AdaptShrink, compared to each other and we proposed a new threshold in wavelet domain for not only noise reduction but also edge retaining, consequently the proposed method retains the modified coefficients significantly that result good visual quality. Data evaluations were accomplished by using two criterions; namely, peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR) and Structure similarity (Ssim).Keywords: Computed Tomography (CT), noise reduction, curve-let, contour-let, Signal to Noise Peak-Peak Ratio (PSNR), Structure Similarity (Ssim), Absorbed Dose to Patient (ADP).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 292038 Investigation of Rehabilitation Effects on Fire Damaged High Strength Concrete Beams
Authors: Eun Mi Ryu, Ah Young An, Ji Yeon Kang, Yeong Soo Shin, Hee Sun Kim
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When high strength reinforced concrete is exposed to high temperature due to a fire, deteriorations occur such as loss in strength and elastic modulus, cracking and spalling of the concrete. Therefore, it is important to understand risk of structural safety in building structures by studying structural behaviors and rehabilitation of fire damaged high strength concrete structures. This paper aims at investigating rehabilitation effect on fire damaged high strength concrete beams using experimental and analytical methods. In the experiments, flexural specimens with high strength concrete are exposed to high temperatures according to ISO 834 standard time temperature curve. From four-point loading test, results show that maximum loads of the rehabilitated beams are similar to or higher than those of the non-fire damaged RC beam. In addition, structural analyses are performed using ABAQUS 6.10-3 with same conditions as experiments to provide accurate predictions on structural and mechanical behaviors of rehabilitated RC beams. The parameters are the fire cover thickness and strengths of repairing mortar. Analytical results show good rehabilitation effects, when the results predicted from the rehabilitated models are compared to structural behaviors of the non-damaged RC beams. In this study, fire damaged high strength concrete beams are rehabilitated using polymeric cement mortar. The predictions from the finite element (FE) models show good agreements with the experimental results and the modeling approaches can be used to investigate applicability of various rehabilitation methods for further study.Keywords: Fire, High strength concrete, Rehabilitation, Reinforced concrete beam.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 237537 Characterization of Printed Reflectarray Elements on Variable Substrate Thicknesses
Authors: M. Y. Ismail, Arslan Kiyani
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Narrow bandwidth and high loss performance limits the use of reflectarray antennas in some applications. This article reports on the feasibility of employing strategic reflectarray resonant elements to characterize the reflectivity performance of reflectarrays in X-band frequency range. Strategic reflectarray resonant elements incorporating variable substrate thicknesses ranging from 0.016λ to 0.052λ have been analyzed in terms of reflection loss and reflection phase performance. The effect of substrate thickness has been validated by using waveguide scattering parameter technique. It has been demonstrated that as the substrate thickness is increased from 0.508mm to 1.57mm the measured reflection loss of dipole element decreased from 5.66dB to 3.70dB with increment in 10% bandwidth of 39MHz to 64MHz. Similarly the measured reflection loss of triangular loop element is decreased from 20.25dB to 7.02dB with an increment in 10% bandwidth of 12MHz to 23MHz. The results also show a significant decrease in the slope of reflection phase curve as well. A Figure of Merit (FoM) has also been defined for the comparison of static phase range of resonant elements under consideration. Moreover, a novel numerical model based on analytical equations has been established incorporating the material properties of dielectric substrate and electrical properties of different reflectarray resonant elements to obtain the progressive phase distribution for each individual reflectarray resonant element.
Keywords: Numerical model, Reflectarray resonant elements, Scattering parameter measurements, Variable substrate thickness.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 172336 Cirrhosis Mortality Prediction as Classification Using Frequent Subgraph Mining
Authors: Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Diego Klabjan, Chenxi Ge, Daniela Ladner, Parker Stride
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In this work, we use machine learning and data analysis techniques to predict the one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients. Data from 2,322 patients with liver cirrhosis are collected at a single medical center. Different machine learning models are applied to predict one-year mortality. A comprehensive feature space including demographic information, comorbidity, clinical procedure and laboratory tests is being analyzed. A temporal pattern mining technic called Frequent Subgraph Mining (FSM) is being used. Model for End-stage liver disease (MELD) prediction of mortality is used as a comparator. All of our models statistically significantly outperform the MELD-score model and show an average 10% improvement of the area under the curve (AUC). The FSM technic itself does not improve the model significantly, but FSM, together with a machine learning technique called an ensemble, further improves the model performance. With the abundance of data available in healthcare through electronic health records (EHR), existing predictive models can be refined to identify and treat patients at risk for higher mortality. However, due to the sparsity of the temporal information needed by FSM, the FSM model does not yield significant improvements. Our work applies modern machine learning algorithms and data analysis methods on predicting one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients and builds a model that predicts one-year mortality significantly more accurate than the MELD score. We have also tested the potential of FSM and provided a new perspective of the importance of clinical features.
Keywords: machine learning, liver cirrhosis, subgraph mining, supervised learning
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 44935 Evaluation of Electro-Flocculation for Biomass Production of Marine Microalgae Phaodactylum tricornutum
Authors: Luciana C. Ramos, Leandro J. Sousa, Antônio Ferreira da Silva, Valéria Gomes Oliveira Falcão, Suzana T. Cunha Lima
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The commercial production of biodiesel using microalgae demands a high-energy input for harvesting biomass, making production economically unfeasible. Methods currently used involve mechanical, chemical, and biological procedures. In this work, a flocculation system is presented as a cost and energy effective process to increase biomass production of Phaeodactylum tricornutum. This diatom is the only species of the genus that present fast growth and lipid accumulation ability that are of great interest for biofuel production. The algae, selected from the Bank of Microalgae, Institute of Biology, Federal University of Bahia (Brazil), have been bred in tubular reactor with photoperiod of 12 h (clear/dark), providing luminance of about 35 μmol photons m-2s-1, and temperature of 22 °C. The medium used for growing cells was the Conway medium, with addition of silica. The seaweed growth curve was accompanied by cell count in Neubauer camera and by optical density in spectrophotometer, at 680 nm. The precipitation occurred at the end of the stationary phase of growth, 21 days after inoculation, using two methods: centrifugation at 5000 rpm for 5 min, and electro-flocculation at 19 EPD and 95 W. After precipitation, cells were frozen at -20 °C and, subsequently, lyophilized. Biomass obtained by electro-flocculation was approximately four times greater than the one achieved by centrifugation. The benefits of this method are that no addition of chemical flocculants is necessary and similar cultivation conditions can be used for the biodiesel production and pharmacological purposes. The results may contribute to improve biodiesel production costs using marine microalgae.
Keywords: Biomass, diatom, flocculation, microalgae.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 136534 Mechanical Properties of 3D Noninterlaced Cf/SiC Composites Prepared through Hybrid Process (CVI+PIP)
Authors: A. Udayakumar, M. Rizvan Basha, M. Stalin, V.V Bhanu Prasad
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Three dimensional non-Interlaced carbon fibre reinforced silicon carbide (3-D-Cf/SiC) composites with pyrocarbon interphase were fabricated using isothermal chemical vapor infiltration (ICVI) combined with polymer impregnation pyrolysis (PIP) process. Polysilazane (PSZ) is used as a preceramic polymer to obtain silicon carbide matrix. Thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA), Infrared spectroscopic analysis (IR) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis were carried out on PSZ pyrolysed at different temperatures to understand the pyrolysis and obtaining the optimum pyrolysing condition to yield β-SiC phase. The density of the composites was 1.94 g cm-3 after the 3-D carbon preform was SiC infiltrated for 280 h with one intermediate polysilazane pre-ceramic PIP process. Mechanical properties of the composite materials were investigated under tensile, flexural, shear and impact loading. The values of tensile strength were 200 MPa at room temperature (RT) and 195 MPa at 500°C in air. The average RT flexural strength was 243 MPa. The lower flexural strength of these composites is because of the porosity. The fracture toughness obtained from single edge notched beam (SENB) technique was 39 MPa.m1/2. The work of fracture obtained from the load-displacement curve of SENB test was 22.8 kJ.m-2. The composites exhibited excellent impact resistance and the dynamic fracture toughness of 44.8 kJ.m-2 is achieved as determined from instrumented Charpy impact test. The shear strength of the composite was 93 MPa, which is significantly higher compared 2-D Cf/SiC composites. Microstructure evaluation of fracture surfaces revealed the signatures of fracture processes and showed good support for the higher toughness obtained.
Keywords: 3-D-Cf/SiC, charpy impact test, composites, dynamic fracture toughness, polysilazane, pyrocarbon, Interphase.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 273933 Nonlinear Estimation Model for Rail Track Deterioration
Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami
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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.
Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, Prediction modeling, rail track degradation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 159532 Simplified Empirical Method for Predicting Liquefaction Potential and Its Application to Kaohsiung Areas in Taiwan
Authors: Darn H. Hsiao, Zhu-Yun Zheng
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Since Taiwan is located between the Eurasian and Filipino plates and earthquakes often thus occur. The coastal plains in western Taiwan are alluvial plains, and the soils of the alluvium are mostly from the Lao-Shan belt in the central mountainous area of southern Taiwan. It could come mostly from sand/shale and slate. The previous investigation found that the soils in the Kaohsiung area of southern Taiwan are mainly composed of slate, shale, quartz, low-plastic clay, silt, silty sand and so on. It can also be found from the past earthquakes that the soil in Kaohsiung is highly susceptible to soil subsidence due to liquefaction. Insufficient bearing capacity of building will cause soil liquefaction disasters. In this study, the boring drilling data from nine districts among the Love River Basin in the city center, and some factors affecting liquefaction include the content of fines (FC), standard penetration test N value (SPT N), the thickness of clay layer near ground-surface, and the thickness of possible liquefied soil were further discussed for liquefaction potential as well as groundwater level. The results show that the liquefaction potential is higher in the areas near the riverside, the backfill area, and the west area of the study area. This paper also uses the old paleo-geological map, soil particle distribution curve, compared with LPI map calculated from the analysis results. After all the parameters finally were studied for five sub zones in the Love River Basin by maximum-minimum method, it is found that both of standard penetration test N value and the thickness of the clay layer will be most influential.
Keywords: Liquefaction, western Taiwan, liquefaction potential map, factors influence high liquefaction potential areas, LPI analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 70431 Development of a Catchment Water Quality Model for Continuous Simulations of Pollutants Build-up and Wash-off
Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh
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Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.
Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 313530 Non-Linear Load-Deflection Response of Shape Memory Alloys-Reinforced Composite Cylindrical Shells under Uniform Radial Load
Authors: Behrang Tavousi Tehrani, Mohammad-Zaman Kabir
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Shape memory alloys (SMA) are often implemented in smart structures as the active components. Their ability to recover large displacements has been used in many applications, including structural stability/response enhancement and active structural acoustic control. SMA wires or fibers can be embedded with composite cylinders to increase their critical buckling load, improve their load-deflection behavior, and reduce the radial deflections under various thermo-mechanical loadings. This paper presents a semi-analytical investigation on the non-linear load-deflection response of SMA-reinforced composite circular cylindrical shells. The cylinder shells are under uniform external pressure load. Based on first-order shear deformation shell theory (FSDT), the equilibrium equations of the structure are derived. One-dimensional simplified Brinson’s model is used for determining the SMA recovery force due to its simplicity and accuracy. Airy stress function and Galerkin technique are used to obtain non-linear load-deflection curves. The results are verified by comparing them with those in the literature. Several parametric studies are conducted in order to investigate the effect of SMA volume fraction, SMA pre-strain value, and SMA activation temperature on the response of the structure. It is shown that suitable usage of SMA wires results in a considerable enhancement in the load-deflection response of the shell due to the generation of the SMA tensile recovery force.
Keywords: Airy stress function, cylindrical shell, Galerkin technique, load-deflection curve, recovery stress, shape memory alloy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 71429 Oscillation Effect of the Multi-stage Learning for the Layered Neural Networks and Its Analysis
Authors: Isao Taguchi, Yasuo Sugai
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This paper proposes an efficient learning method for the layered neural networks based on the selection of training data and input characteristics of an output layer unit. Comparing to recent neural networks; pulse neural networks, quantum neuro computation, etc, the multilayer network is widely used due to its simple structure. When learning objects are complicated, the problems, such as unsuccessful learning or a significant time required in learning, remain unsolved. Focusing on the input data during the learning stage, we undertook an experiment to identify the data that makes large errors and interferes with the learning process. Our method devides the learning process into several stages. In general, input characteristics to an output layer unit show oscillation during learning process for complicated problems. The multi-stage learning method proposes by the authors for the function approximation problems of classifying learning data in a phased manner, focusing on their learnabilities prior to learning in the multi layered neural network, and demonstrates validity of the multi-stage learning method. Specifically, this paper verifies by computer experiments that both of learning accuracy and learning time are improved of the BP method as a learning rule of the multi-stage learning method. In learning, oscillatory phenomena of a learning curve serve an important role in learning performance. The authors also discuss the occurrence mechanisms of oscillatory phenomena in learning. Furthermore, the authors discuss the reasons that errors of some data remain large value even after learning, observing behaviors during learning.
Keywords: data selection, function approximation problem, multistage leaning, neural network, voluntary oscillation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 143028 Comparison of Adsorbents for Ammonia Removal from Mining Wastewater
Authors: Farooq A. Al-Sheikh, Carol Moralejo, Mark Pritzker, William A. Anderson, Ali Elkamel
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Ammonia in mining wastewater is a significant problem, and treatment can be especially difficult in cold climates where biological treatment is not feasible. An adsorption process is one of the alternative processes that can be used to reduce ammonia concentrations to acceptable limits, and therefore a LEWATIT resin strongly acidic H+ form ion exchange resin and a Bowie Chabazite Na form AZLB-Na zeolite were tested to assess their effectiveness. For these adsorption tests, two packed bed columns (a mini-column constructed from a 32-cm long x 1-cm diameter piece of glass tubing, and a 60-cm long x 2.5-cm diameter Ace Glass chromatography column) were used containing varying quantities of the adsorbents. A mining wastewater with ammonia concentrations of 22.7 mg/L was fed through the columns at controlled flowrates. In the experimental work, maximum capacities of the LEWATIT ion exchange resin were 0.438, 0.448, and 1.472 mg/g for 3, 6, and 9 g respectively in a mini column and 1.739 mg/g for 141.5 g in a larger Ace column while the capacities for the AZLB-Na zeolite were 0.424, and 0.784 mg/g for 3, and 6 g respectively in the mini column and 1.1636 mg/g for 38.5 g in the Ace column. In the theoretical work, Thomas, Adams-Bohart, and Yoon-Nelson models were constructed to describe a breakthrough curve of the adsorption process and find the constants of the above-mentioned models. In the regeneration tests, 5% hydrochloric acid, HCl (v/v) and 10% sodium hydroxide, NaOH (w/v) were used to regenerate the LEWATIT resin and AZLB-Na zeolite with 44 and 63.8% recovery, respectively. In conclusion, continuous flow adsorption using a LEWATIT ion exchange resin and an AZLB-Na zeolite is efficient when using a co-flow technique for removal of the ammonia from wastewater. Thomas, Adams-Bohart, and Yoon-Nelson models satisfactorily fit the data with R2 closer to 1 in all cases.
Keywords: AZLB-Na zeolite, continuous adsorption, LEWATIT resin, models, regeneration.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 123627 Machine Learning Techniques for COVID-19 Detection: A Comparative Analysis
Authors: Abeer Aljohani
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The COVID-19 virus spread has been one of the extreme pandemics across the globe. It is also referred as corona virus which is a contagious disease that continuously mutates into numerous variants. Currently, the B.1.1.529 variant labeled as Omicron is detected in South Africa. The huge spread of COVID-19 disease has affected several lives and has surged exceptional pressure on the healthcare systems worldwide. Also, everyday life and the global economy have been at stake. Numerous COVID-19 cases have produced a huge burden on hospitals as well as health workers. To reduce this burden, this paper predicts COVID-19 disease based on the symptoms and medical history of the patient. As machine learning is a widely accepted area and gives promising results for healthcare, this research presents an architecture for COVID-19 detection using ML techniques integrated with feature dimensionality reduction. This paper uses a standard University of California Irvine (UCI) dataset for predicting COVID-19 disease. This dataset comprises symptoms of 5434 patients. This paper also compares several supervised ML techniques on the presented architecture. The architecture has also utilized 10-fold cross validation process for generalization and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique for feature reduction. Standard parameters are used to evaluate the proposed architecture including F1-Score, precision, accuracy, recall, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Area under Curve (AUC). The results depict that Decision tree, Random Forest and neural networks outperform all other state-of-the-art ML techniques. This result can be used to effectively identify COVID-19 infection cases.
Keywords: Supervised machine learning, COVID-19 prediction, healthcare analytics, Random Forest, Neural Network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 38426 An Investigation to Effective Parameters on the Damage of Dual Phase Steels by Acoustic Emission Using Energy Ratio
Authors: A. Fallahi, R. Khamedi
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Dual phase steels (DPS)s have a microstructure consisting of a hard second phase called Martensite in the soft Ferrite matrix. In recent years, there has been interest in dual-phase steels, because the application of these materials has made significant usage; particularly in the automotive sector Composite microstructure of (DPS)s exhibit interesting characteristic mechanical properties such as continuous yielding, low yield stress to tensile strength ratios(YS/UTS), and relatively high formability; which offer advantages compared with conventional high strength low alloy steels(HSLAS). The research dealt with the characterization of damage in (DPS)s. In this study by review the mechanisms of failure due to volume fraction of martensite second phase; a new method is introduced to identifying the mechanisms of failure in the various phases of these types of steels. In this method the acoustic emission (AE) technique was used to detect damage progression. These failure mechanisms consist of Ferrite-Martensite interface decohesion and/or martensite phase fracture. For this aim, dual phase steels with different volume fraction of martensite second phase has provided by various heat treatment methods on a low carbon steel (0.1% C), and then AE monitoring is used during tensile test of these DPSs. From AE measurements and an energy ratio curve elaborated from the value of AE energy (it was obtained as the ratio between the strain energy to the acoustic energy), that allows detecting important events, corresponding to the sudden drops. These AE signals events associated with various failure mechanisms are classified for ferrite and (DPS)s with various amount of Vm and different martensite morphology. It is found that AE energy increase with increasing Vm. This increasing of AE energy is because of more contribution of martensite fracture in the failure of samples with higher Vm. Final results show a good relationship between the AE signals and the mechanisms of failure.Keywords: Dual phase steel (DPS)s, Failure mechanisms, Acoustic Emission, Fracture strain energy to the acoustic energy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 188925 Evaluation of Seismic Damage for Gisha Bridge in Tehran by HAZUS Methodology
Authors: Langroudi B., Salehi E., Keshani S., Baghersad M.
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Transportation is of great importance in the current life of human beings. The transportation system plays many roles, from economical development to after-catastrophe aids such as rescue operation in the first hours and days after an earthquake. In after earthquakes response phase, transportation system acts as a basis for ground operations including rescue and relief operation, food providing for victims and etc. It is obvious that partial or complete obstruction of this system results in the stop of these operations. Bridges are one of the most important elements of transportation network. Failure of a bridge, in the most optimistic case, cuts the relation between two regions and in more developed countries, cuts the relation of numerous regions. In this paper, to evaluate the vulnerability and estimate the damage level of Tehran bridges, HAZUS method, developed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) with the aid of National Institute of Building Science (NIBS), is used for the first time in Iran. In this method, to evaluate the collapse probability, fragility curves are used. Iran is located on seismic belt and thus, it is vulnerable to earthquakes. Thus, the study of the probability of bridge collapses, as an important part of transportation system, during earthquakes is of great importance. The purpose of this study is to provide fragility curves for Gisha Bridge, one of the longest steel bridges in Tehran, as an important lifeline element. Besides, the damage probability for this bridge during a specific earthquake, introduced as scenario earthquakes, is calculated. The fragility curves show that for the considered scenario, the probability of occurrence of complete collapse for the bridge is 8.6%.Keywords: Bridge, Damage evaluation, Fragility curve, Lifelines, Seismic vulnerability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 214224 Validation on 3D Surface Roughness Algorithm for Measuring Roughness of Psoriasis Lesion
Authors: M.H. Ahmad Fadzil, Esa Prakasa, Hurriyatul Fitriyah, Hermawan Nugroho, Azura Mohd Affandi, S.H. Hussein
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Psoriasis is a widespread skin disease affecting up to 2% population with plaque psoriasis accounting to about 80%. It can be identified as a red lesion and for the higher severity the lesion is usually covered with rough scale. Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) scoring is the gold standard method for measuring psoriasis severity. Scaliness is one of PASI parameter that needs to be quantified in PASI scoring. Surface roughness of lesion can be used as a scaliness feature, since existing scale on lesion surface makes the lesion rougher. The dermatologist usually assesses the severity through their tactile sense, therefore direct contact between doctor and patient is required. The problem is the doctor may not assess the lesion objectively. In this paper, a digital image analysis technique is developed to objectively determine the scaliness of the psoriasis lesion and provide the PASI scaliness score. Psoriasis lesion is modelled by a rough surface. The rough surface is created by superimposing a smooth average (curve) surface with a triangular waveform. For roughness determination, a polynomial surface fitting is used to estimate average surface followed by a subtraction between rough and average surface to give elevation surface (surface deviations). Roughness index is calculated by using average roughness equation to the height map matrix. The roughness algorithm has been tested to 444 lesion models. From roughness validation result, only 6 models can not be accepted (percentage error is greater than 10%). These errors occur due the scanned image quality. Roughness algorithm is validated for roughness measurement on abrasive papers at flat surface. The Pearson-s correlation coefficient of grade value (G) of abrasive paper and Ra is -0.9488, its shows there is a strong relation between G and Ra. The algorithm needs to be improved by surface filtering, especially to overcome a problem with noisy data.
Keywords: psoriasis, roughness algorithm, polynomial surfacefitting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 249123 Value Index, a Novel Decision Making Approach for Waste Load Allocation
Authors: E. Feizi Ashtiani, S. Jamshidi, M.H Niksokhan, A. Feizi Ashtiani
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Waste load allocation (WLA) policies may use multiobjective optimization methods to find the most appropriate and sustainable solutions. These usually intend to simultaneously minimize two criteria, total abatement costs (TC) and environmental violations (EV). If other criteria, such as inequity, need for minimization as well, it requires introducing more binary optimizations through different scenarios. In order to reduce the calculation steps, this study presents value index as an innovative decision making approach. Since the value index contains both the environmental violation and treatment costs, it can be maximized simultaneously with the equity index. It implies that the definition of different scenarios for environmental violations is no longer required. Furthermore, the solution is not necessarily the point with minimized total costs or environmental violations. This idea is testified for Haraz River, in north of Iran. Here, the dissolved oxygen (DO) level of river is simulated by Streeter-Phelps equation in MATLAB software. The WLA is determined for fish farms using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) in two scenarios. At first, the trade-off curves of TC-EV and TC-Inequity are plotted separately as the conventional approach. In the second, the Value-Equity curve is derived. The comparative results show that the solutions are in a similar range of inequity with lower total costs. This is due to the freedom of environmental violation attained in value index. As a result, the conventional approach can well be replaced by the value index particularly for problems optimizing these objectives. This reduces the process to achieve the best solutions and may find better classification for scenario definition. It is also concluded that decision makers are better to focus on value index and weighting its contents to find the most sustainable alternatives based on their requirements.Keywords: Waste load allocation (WLA), Value index, Multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), Haraz River, Equity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 202722 Removal of Rhodamine B from Aqueous Solution Using Natural Clay by Fixed Bed Column Method
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The discharge of dye in industrial effluents is of great concern because their presence and accumulation have a toxic or carcinogenic effect on living species. The removal of such compounds at such low levels is a difficult problem. The adsorption process is an effective and attractive proposition for the treatment of dye contaminated wastewater. Activated carbon adsorption in fixed beds is a very common technology in the treatment of water and especially in processes of decolouration. However, it is expensive and the powdered one is difficult to be separated from aquatic system when it becomes exhausted or the effluent reaches the maximum allowable discharge level. The regeneration of exhausted activated carbon by chemical and thermal procedure is also expensive and results in loss of the sorbent. The focus of this research was to evaluate the adsorption potential of the raw clay in removing rhodamine B from aqueous solutions using a laboratory fixed-bed column. The continuous sorption process was conducted in this study in order to simulate industrial conditions. The effect of process parameters, such as inlet flow rate, adsorbent bed height, and initial adsorbate concentration on the shape of breakthrough curves was investigated. A glass column with an internal diameter of 1.5 cm and height of 30 cm was used as a fixed-bed column. The pH of feed solution was set at 8.5. Experiments were carried out at different bed heights (5 - 20 cm), influent flow rates (1.6- 8 mL/min) and influent rhodamine B concentrations (20 - 80 mg/L). The obtained results showed that the adsorption capacity increases with the bed depth and the initial concentration and it decreases at higher flow rate. The column regeneration was possible for four adsorption–desorption cycles. The clay column study states the value of the excellent adsorption capacity for the removal of rhodamine B from aqueous solution. Uptake of rhodamine B through a fixed-bed column was dependent on the bed depth, influent rhodamine B concentration, and flow rate.Keywords: Adsorption, Breakthrough curve, Clay, Fixed bed column, Rhodamine B, Regeneration.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 167521 Ethyl Methane Sulfonate-Induced Dunaliella salina KU11 Mutants Affected for Growth Rate, Cell Accumulation and Biomass
Authors: Vongsathorn Ngampuak, Yutachai Chookaew, Wipawee Dejtisakdi
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Dunaliella salina has great potential as a system for generating commercially valuable products, including beta-carotene, pharmaceuticals, and biofuels. Our goal is to improve this potential by enhancing growth rate and other properties of D. salina under optimal growth conditions. We used ethyl methane sulfonate (EMS) to generate random mutants in D. salina KU11, a strain classified in Thailand. In a preliminary experiment, we first treated D. salina cells with 0%, 0.8%, 1.0%, 1.2%, 1.44% and 1.66% EMS to generate a killing curve. After that, we randomly picked 30 candidates from approximately 300 isolated survivor colonies from the 1.44% EMS treatment (which permitted 30% survival) as an initial test of the mutant screen. Among the 30 survivor lines, we found that 2 strains (mutant #17 and #24) had significantly improved growth rates and cell number accumulation at stationary phase approximately up to 1.8 and 1.45 fold, respectively, 2 strains (mutant #6 and #23) had significantly decreased growth rates and cell number accumulation at stationary phase approximately down to 1.4 and 1.35 fold, respectively, while 26 of 30 lines had similar growth rates compared with the wild type control. We also analyzed cell size for each strain and found there was no significant difference comparing all mutants with the wild type. In addition, mutant #24 had shown an increase of biomass accumulation approximately 1.65 fold compared with the wild type strain on day 5 that was entering early stationary phase. From these preliminary results, it could be feasible to identify D. salina mutants with significant improved growth rate, cell accumulation and biomass production compared to the wild type for the further study; this makes it possible to improve this microorganism as a platform for biotechnology application.
Keywords: Dunaliella salina, mutant, ethyl methane sulfonate, growth rate, biomass.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 184820 Mastering the Innovation Paradox: The Five Unexpected Qualities of Innovation Leaders
Authors: Murtuza Ali Lakhani, Michelle Marquard
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From an organizational perspective, leaders are a variation of the same talent pool in that they all score a larger than average value on the bell curve that maps leadership behaviors and characteristics, namely competence, vision, communication, confidence, cultural sensibility, stewardship, empowerment, authenticity, reinforcement, and creativity. The question that remains unanswered and essentially unresolved is how to explain the irony that leaders are so much alike yet their organizations diverge so noticeably in their ability to innovate. Leadership intersects with innovation at the point where human interactions get exceedingly complex and where certain paradoxical forces cohabit: conflict with conciliation, sovereignty with interdependence, and imagination with realism. Rather than accepting that leadership is without context, we argue that leaders are specialists of their domain and that those effective at leading for innovation are distinct within the broader pool of leaders. Keeping in view the extensive literature on leadership and innovation, we carried out a quantitative study with data collected over a five-year period involving 240 participants from across five dissimilar companies based in the United States. We found that while innovation and leadership are, in general, strongly interrelated (r = .89, p = 0.0), there are five qualities that set leaders apart on innovation. These qualities include a large radius of trust, a restless curiosity with a low need for acceptance, an honest sense of self and other, a sense for knowledge and creativity as the yin and yang of innovation, and an ability to use multiple senses in the engagement with followers. When these particular behaviors and characteristics are present in leaders, organizations out-innovate their rivals by a margin of 29.3 per cent to gain an unassailable edge in a business environment that is regularly disruptive. A strategic outcome of this study is a psychometric scale named iLeadership, proposed with the underlying evidence, limitations, and potential for leadership and innovation in organizations.c
Keywords: Innovation, leadership, ileadership, stewardship, communication, empowerment, creativity, vision, influence, emotional connection, group membership, sense of community, knowledge creation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 260819 Microscopic Analysis of Interfacial Transition Zone of Cementitious Composites Prepared by Various Mixing Procedures
Authors: Josef Fládr, Jiří Němeček, Veronika Koudelková, Petr Bílý
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Mechanical parameters of cementitious composites differ quite significantly based on the composition of cement matrix. They are also influenced by mixing times and procedure. The research presented in this paper was aimed at identification of differences in microstructure of normal strength (NSC) and differently mixed high strength (HSC) cementitious composites. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) investigation together with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) phase analysis of NSC and HSC samples was conducted. Evaluation of interfacial transition zone (ITZ) between the aggregate and cement matrix was performed. Volume share, thickness, porosity and composition of ITZ were studied. In case of HSC, samples obtained by several different mixing procedures were compared in order to find the most suitable procedure. In case of NSC, ITZ was identified around 40-50% of aggregate grains and its thickness typically ranged between 10 and 40 µm. Higher porosity and lower share of clinker was observed in this area as a result of increased water-to-cement ratio (w/c) and the lack of fine particles improving the grading curve of the aggregate. Typical ITZ with lower content of Ca was observed only in one HSC sample, where it was developed around less than 15% of aggregate grains. The typical thickness of ITZ in this sample was similar to ITZ in NSC (between 5 and 40 µm). In the remaining four HSC samples, no ITZ was observed. In general, the share of ITZ in HSC samples was found to be significantly smaller than in NSC samples. As ITZ is the weakest part of the material, this result explains to large extent the improved mechanical properties of HSC compared to NSC. Based on the comparison of characteristics of ITZ in HSC samples prepared by different mixing procedures, the most suitable mixing procedure from the point of view of properties of ITZ was identified.
Keywords: Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, high strength concrete, interfacial transition zone, mixing procedure, normal strength concrete, scanning electron microscopy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 127418 Surface Water Flow of Urban Areas and Sustainable Urban Planning
Authors: Sheetal Sharma
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Urban planning is associated with land transformation from natural areas to modified and developed ones which leads to modification of natural environment. The basic knowledge of relationship between both should be ascertained before proceeding for the development of natural areas. Changes on land surface due to build up pavements, roads and similar land cover, affect surface water flow. There is a gap between urban planning and basic knowledge of hydrological processes which should be known to the planners. The paper aims to identify these variations in surface flow due to urbanization for a temporal scale of 40 years using Storm Water Management Mode (SWMM) and again correlating these findings with the urban planning guidelines in study area along with geological background to find out the suitable combinations of land cover, soil and guidelines. For the purpose of identifying the changes in surface flows, 19 catchments were identified with different geology and growth in 40 years facing different ground water levels fluctuations. The increasing built up, varying surface runoff are studied using Arc GIS and SWMM modeling, regression analysis for runoff. Resulting runoff for various land covers and soil groups with varying built up conditions were observed. The modeling procedures also included observations for varying precipitation and constant built up in all catchments. All these observations were combined for individual catchment and single regression curve was obtained for runoff. Thus, it was observed that alluvial with suitable land cover was better for infiltration and least generation of runoff but excess built up could not be sustained on alluvial soil. Similarly, basalt had least recharge and most runoff demanding maximum vegetation over it. Sandstone resulted in good recharging if planned with more open spaces and natural soils with intermittent vegetation. Hence, these observations made a keystone base for planners while planning various land uses on different soils. This paper contributes and provides a solution to basic knowledge gap, which urban planners face during development of natural surfaces.
Keywords: Runoff, built up, roughness, recharge, temporal changes.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 145917 Flow Duration Curves and Recession Curves Connection through a Mathematical Link
Authors: Elena Carcano, Mirzi Betasolo
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This study helps Public Water Bureaus in giving reliable answers to water concession requests. Rapidly increasing water requests can be supported provided that further uses of a river course are not totally compromised, and environmental features are protected as well. Strictly speaking, a water concession can be considered a continuous drawing from the source and causes a mean annual streamflow reduction. Therefore, deciding if a water concession is appropriate or inappropriate seems to be easily solved by comparing the generic demand to the mean annual streamflow value at disposal. Still, the immediate shortcoming for such a comparison is that streamflow data are information available only for few catchments and, most often, limited to specific sites. Subsequently, comparing the generic water demand to mean daily discharge is indeed far from being completely satisfactory since the mean daily streamflow is greater than the water withdrawal for a long period of a year. Consequently, such a comparison appears to be of little significance in order to preserve the quality and the quantity of the river. In order to overcome such a limit, this study aims to complete the information provided by flow duration curves introducing a link between Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) and recession curves and aims to show the chronological sequence of flows with a particular focus on low flow data. The analysis is carried out on 25 catchments located in North-Eastern Italy for which daily data are provided. The results identify groups of catchments as hydrologically homogeneous, having the lower part of the FDCs (corresponding streamflow interval is streamflow Q between 300 and 335, namely: Q(300), Q(335)) smoothly reproduced by a common recession curve. In conclusion, the results are useful to provide more reliable answers to water request, especially for those catchments which show similar hydrological response and can be used for a focused regionalization approach on low flow data. A mathematical link between streamflow duration curves and recession curves is herein provided, thus furnishing streamflow duration curves information upon a temporal sequence of data. In such a way, by introducing assumptions on recession curves, the chronological sequence upon low flow data can also be attributed to FDCs, which are known to lack this information by nature.
Keywords: Chronological sequence of discharges, recession curves, streamflow duration curves, water concession.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 59516 Ligandless Extraction and Determination of Trace Amounts of Lead in Pomegranate, Zucchini and Lettuce Samples after Dispersive Liquid-Liquid Microextraction with Ultrasonic Bath and Optimization of Extraction Condition with RSM Design
Authors: Fariba Tadayon, Elmira Hassanlou, Hasan Bagheri, Mostafa Jafarian
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Heavy metals are released into water, plants, soil, and food by natural and human activities. Lead has toxic roles in the human body and may cause serious problems even in low concentrations, since it may have several adverse effects on human. Therefore, determination of lead in different samples is an important procedure in the studies of environmental pollution. In this work, an ultrasonic assisted-ionic liquid based-liquid-liquid microextraction (UA-IL-DLLME) procedure for the determination of lead in zucchini, pomegranate, and lettuce has been established and developed by using flame atomic absorption spectrometer (FAAS). For UA-IL-DLLME procedure, 10 mL of the sample solution containing Pb2+ was adjusted to pH=5 in a glass test tube with a conical bottom; then, 120 μL of 1-Hexyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluoro phosphate (CMIM)(PF6) was rapidly injected into the sample solution with a microsyringe. After that, the resulting cloudy mixture was treated by ultrasonic for 5 min, then the separation of two phases was obtained by centrifugation for 5 min at 3000 rpm and IL-phase diluted with 1 cc ethanol, and the analytes were determined by FAAS. The effect of different experimental parameters in the extraction step including: ionic liquid volume, sonication time and pH was studied and optimized simultaneously by using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) employing a central composite design (CCD). The optimal conditions were determined to be an ionic liquid volume of 120 μL, sonication time of 5 min, and pH=5. The linear ranges of the calibration curve for the determination by FAAS of lead were 0.1-4 ppm with R2=0.992. Under optimized conditions, the limit of detection (LOD) for lead was 0.062 μg.mL-1, the enrichment factor (EF) was 93, and the relative standard deviation (RSD) for lead was calculated as 2.29%. The levels of lead for pomegranate, zucchini, and lettuce were calculated as 2.88 μg.g-1, 1.54 μg.g-1, 2.18 μg.g-1, respectively. Therefore, this method has been successfully applied for the analysis of the content of lead in different food samples by FAAS.Keywords: Dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction, Central composite design, Food samples, Flame atomic absorption spectrometry.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 129015 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance
Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru
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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.
Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 41614 Discontinuous Spacetime with Vacuum Holes as Explanation for Gravitation, Quantum Mechanics and Teleportation
Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan
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Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.
Keywords: Border of the universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1232