Search results for: Birks constant

Authors: Sperisa Distantina, Fadilah Fadilah, Mujtahid Kaavessina

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Cross-linked konjac glucomannan and kappa carrageenan film were prepared by chemical crosslinking using glutaraldehyde (GA) as the crosslinking agent. The effect crosslinking on the swelling degree was investigated. Konjac glucomannan and its mixture with kappa carrageenan film was immersed in GA solution and then thermally cured. The obtained cross-linked film was washed and soaked in the ethanol to remove the unreacted GA. The obtained film was air dried at room temperature to a constant weight. The infrared spectra and the value of swelling degree of obtained crosslinked film showed that glucomannan and kappa carrageenan was able to be cross-linked using glutaraldehyde by film immersion and curing method without catalyst. The cross-linked films were found to be pH sensitive, indicating a potential to be used in drug delivery polymer system.

Keywords: Crosslinking, glucomannan, carrageenan, swelling.

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Authors: A. Kurşun, E. Kara, E. Çetin, Ş. Aksoy, A. Kesimli

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In this study, thermal elastic stress distribution occurred on long hollow cylinders made of functionally graded material (FGM) was analytically defined under thermal, mechanical and thermo mechanical loads. In closed form solutions for elastic stresses and displacements are obtained analytically by using the infinitesimal deformation theory of elasticity. It was assumed that elasticity modulus, thermal expansion coefficient and density of cylinder materials could change in terms of an exponential function as for that Poisson’s ratio was constant. A gradient parameter n is chosen between - 1 and 1. When n equals to zero, the disc becomes isotropic. Circumferential, radial and longitudinal stresses in the FGMs cylinders are depicted in the figures. As a result, the gradient parameters have great effects on the stress systems of FGMs cylinders.

Keywords: Functionally graded materials, hollow cylinder, thermoelasticity, thermomechanical load.

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Authors: Chaoraingern J., Trisuwannawat T., Numsomran A.

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The author present PID controller design for following control of hard disk drive by characteristic ratio assignment method. The study in this paper concerns design of a PID controller which sufficiently robust to the disturbances and plant perturbations on following control of hard disk drive. Characteristic Ratio Assignment (CRA) is shown to be an efficient control technique to serve this requirement. The controller design by CRA is based on the choice of the coefficients of the characteristic polynomial of the closed loop system according to the convenient performance criteria such as equivalent time constant and ration of characteristic coefficient. Hence, in this study, CRA method is applied in PID controller design for following control of hard disk drive. Matlab simulation results shown that CRA design is fairly stable and robust whilst giving the convenience in controller-s parameters adjustment.

Keywords: Following Control, Hard Disk Drive, PID, CRA

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Authors: Igor Astrov, Andrus Pedai

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This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the neural control of depth flight of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). Constant depth flight is a challenging but important task for AUVs to achieve high level of autonomy under adverse conditions. With the SA strategy, we proposed a multirate neural control of an AUV trajectory for a nontrivial mid-small size AUV “r2D4" stochastic model. This control system has been demonstrated and evaluated by simulation of diving maneuvers using software package Simulink. From the simulation results it can be seen that the chosen AUV model is stable in the presence of noises, and also can be concluded that the proposed research technique will be useful for fast SA of similar AUV systems in real-time search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Autonomous underwater vehicles, multirate systems, neurocontrollers, situational awareness.

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Authors: Nima Jahandar, Amin Hosseinpour, Mohammad Ali Sahraei

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Whit the increasing of traffic, noise emanated from motor vehicles increases as well, which subsequently causes adding to the stress of modern city. Thus, it is needed to look for most critical areas in terms of environmental and social impact of noise. There are several critical situations for noise emanated from motor vehicles such as stop and go situation which usually occurs near junctions or at-grade intersections. This study was conducted in two locations, most common types of intersections, crossroads and Tjunctions. The highest average noise levels are recorded during Go phase for T-junction, 64.4 dB, and Drive phase for crossroad, 64 dB. It implies that the existence of intersection caused the noise level to increase. The vehicles starting to move produce more sound than when they travel at a constant speed along the intersection. It is suggested that special considerations and priority of allocating funds should be given to these critical spots.

Keywords: Crossroad, T-junction, Traffic Noise, Stop and Go, Urban noise

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Authors: D. Zare, H. Safiyari, F. Salmanizade

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In this study, some physical and mechanical properties of jujube fruits, were measured and compared at constant moisture content of 15.5% w.b. The results showed that the mean length, width and thickness of jujube fruits were 18.88, 16.79 and 15.9 mm, respectively. The mean projected areas of jujube perpendicular to length, width, and thickness were 147.01, 224.08 and 274.60 mm2, respectively. The mean mass and volume were 1.51 g and 2672.80 mm3, respectively. The arithmetic mean diameter, geometric mean diameter and equivalent diameter varied from 14.53 to 20 mm, 14.5 to 19.94 mm, and 14.52 to 19.97 mm, respectively. The sphericity, aspect ratio and surface area of jujube fruits were 0.91, 0.89 and 926.28 mm2, respectively. Whole fruit density, bulk density and porosity of jujube fruits were measured and found to be 1.52 g/cm3, 0.3 g/cm3 and 79.3%, respectively. The angle of repose of jujube fruit was 14.66° (±0.58°). The static coefficient of friction on galvanized iron steel was higher than that on plywood and lower than that on glass surface. The values of rupture force, deformation, hardness and energy absorbed were found to be between 11.13-19.91N, 2.53- 4.82mm, 3.06-5.81N mm and 20.13-39.08 N/mm, respectively.

Keywords: Mechanical and Physical properties, Jujube fruits, friction coefficient

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Authors: S.Shokri, S.Zahedi, M.Ahmadi Marvast, B. Baloochi, H.Ganji

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In this research, a systematic investigation was carried out to determine the optimum conditions of HDS reactor. Moreover, a suitable model was developed for a rigorous RTO (real time optimization) loop of HDS (Hydro desulfurization) process. A systematic experimental series was designed based on CCD (Central Composite design) and carried out in the related pilot plant to tune the develop model. The designed variables in the experiments were Temperature, LHSV and pressure. However, the hydrogen over fresh feed ratio was remained constant. The ranges of these variables were respectively equal to 320-380ºC, 1- 21/hr and 50-55 bar. a power law kinetic model was also developed for our further research in the future .The rate order and activation energy , power of reactant concentration and frequency factor of this model was respectively equal to 1.4, 92.66 kJ/mol and k0=2.7*109 .

Keywords: Statistical model, Multiphase Reactors, Gas oil, Hydrodesulfurization, Optimization, Kinetics

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Authors: A. Ersan, A. S. Kipcak, M. Yildirim, A. M. Erayvaz, E. M. Derun, N. Tugrul, S. Piskin

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Zinc borates are used as a multi-functional flame retardant additive for its high dehydration temperature. In this study, the method of ultrasonic mixing was used in the synthesis of zinc borates. The reactants of zinc oxide (ZnO) and boric acid (H3BO3) were used at the constant reaction parameters of 90°C reaction temperature and 55 min of reaction time. Several molar ratios of ZnO:H3BO3 (1:1, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 and 1:5) were conducted for the determination of the optimum reaction ratio. Prior to synthesis the characterization of the synthesized zinc borates were made by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR). From the results Zinc Oxide Borate Hydrate [Zn3B6O12.3.5H2O], were synthesized optimum at the molar ratio of 1:3, with a reaction efficiency of 95.2%.

Keywords: Zinc borates, ultrasonic mixing, XRD, FT-IR, reaction efficiency.

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Authors: R. P. Mahapatra, Jitendra Singh

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This paper proposes a new technique for improving the efficiency of software testing, which is based on a conventional attempt to reduce test cases that have to be tested for any given software. The approach utilizes the advantage of Regression Testing where fewer test cases would lessen time consumption of the testing as a whole. The technique also offers a means to perform test case generation automatically. Compared to one of the techniques in the literature where the tester has no option but to perform the test case generation manually, the proposed technique provides a better option. As for the test cases reduction, the technique uses simple algebraic conditions to assign fixed values to variables (Maximum, minimum and constant variables). By doing this, the variables values would be limited within a definite range, resulting in fewer numbers of possible test cases to process. The technique can also be used in program loops and arrays.

Keywords: Software Testing, Test Case Generation, Test CaseReduction

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Authors: Sorin Valcan, Mihail Găianu

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Labeling is a very costly and time consuming process which aims to generate datasets for training neural networks in several functionalities and projects. For driver monitoring system projects, the need of labeled images has a significant impact on the budget and distribution of effort. This paper presents the modifications done to a ground truth data generation algorithm for 2D eyes location on infrared images with drivers in order to improve the quality of the data and performance of the trained neural networks. The algorithm restrictions become tougher which makes it more accurate but also less constant. The resulting dataset becomes smaller and shall not be altered by any kind of manual labels adjustment before being used in the neural networks training process. These changes resulted in a much better performance of the trained neural networks.

Keywords: Labeling automation, infrared camera, driver monitoring, eye detection, Convolutional Neural Networks.

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Authors: Hamed Ahmadi Moghadam, Omolbanin Arasteh Khoshbin

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Nowadays, the performance required for concrete structures is more complicated and diversified. Self-compacting concrete is a fluid mixture suitable for placing in structures with congested reinforcement without vibration. Self-compacting concrete development must ensure a good balance between deformability and stability. Also, compatibility is affected by the characteristics of materials and the mix proportions; it becomes necessary to evolve a procedure for mix design of SCC. This paper presents an experimental procedure for the design of self-compacting concrete mixes with different water-cement ratios (w/c) and other constant ratios by local materials. The test results for acceptance characteristics of self-compacting concrete such as slump flow, V-funnel and L-Box are presented. Further, compressive strength, tensile strength and modulus of elasticity of specimens were also determined and results are included here

Keywords: Self-Compacting Concrete, Mix Design, Compressive Strength, Tensile Strength, Modulus of Elasticity

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Authors: Rashid A. Fayadh, F. Malek, Hilal A. Fadhil, Norshafinash Saudin

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In this paper, a design of ultra wideband (UWB) printed microstrip antennas that fed by microstrip transmission line were presented and printed on a substrate Taconic TLY-5 material with relative dielectric constant of 2.2. The proposed antennas were designed to cover the frequency range of 3.5 to 12 GHz. The antennas of printed patch shapes are rectangular, triangle/rectangular, hexagonal, and circular with the same dimensions of feeder and ground plane. The proposed antennas were simulated using a package of CST microwave studio in the 2 to 12 GHz operating frequency range. Simulation results and comparison for return loss (S₁₁), radiation patterns, and voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) were presented and discussed over the UWB frequency.

Keywords: Microstrip patch antenna, ultra-wideband frequency, wireless communication systems, return loss and radiation patterns.

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Authors: A. Ghafouri, A. Falavand Jozaei, M. Salari

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In this paper, effects of using Alumina-water nanofluid on the rate of heat transfer have been investigated numerically. Physical model is a square enclosure with insulated top and bottom horizontal walls, while the vertical walls are kept at different constant temperatures. Two appropriate models are used to evaluate the viscosity and thermal conductivity of nanofluid. The governing stream-vorticity equations are solved using a second order central finite difference scheme, coupled to the conservation of mass and energy. The study has been carried out for the Richardson number 0.1 to 10 and the solid volume fraction 0 to 0.04. Results are presented by isotherms lines, average Nusselt number and normalized Nusselt number in different range of φ and Ri for forced, combined and natural convection dominated regime. It is found that higher heat transfer rate is predicted when the effects of nanoparticle is taken into account.

Keywords: Nanofluid, Heat Transfer Enhancement, Square Enclosure, Nusselt number.

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Authors: Payam Parvasi, Mohammad Hossein Sedaghat, Reza Janamiri, Amir Hatampour

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In this work, several ASP solutions were flooded into fractured models initially saturated with heavy oil at a constant flow rate and different geometrical characteristics of fracture. The ASP solutions are constituted from 2 polymers i.e. a synthetic polymer, hydrolyzed polyacrylamide as well as a biopolymer, a surfactant and 2types of alkaline. The results showed that using synthetic hydrolyzed polyacrylamide polymer increases ultimate oil recovery; however, type of alkaline does not play a significant rule on oil recovery. In addition, position of the injection well respect to the fracture system has remarkable effects on ASP flooding. For instance increasing angle of fractures with mean flow direction causes more oil recovery and delays breakthrough time. This work can be accounted as a comprehensive survey on ASP flooding which considers most of effective factors in this chemical EOR method.

Keywords: ASP Flooding, Fractured System, Displacement, Heavy Oil.

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Authors: Muhammad Marsudi, Hani Shafeek

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The purpose of this paper is to simulate the production process of a metal stamping industry and to evaluate the utilization of the production line by using ARENA simulation software. The process time and the standard time for each process of the production line is obtained from data given by the company management. Other data are collected through direct observation of the line. There are three work stations performing ten different types of processes in order to produce a single product type. Arena simulation model is then developed based on the collected data. Verification and validation are done to the Arena model, and finally the result of Arena simulation can be analyzed. It is found that utilization at each workstation will increase if batch size is increased although throughput rate remains/is kept constant. This study is very useful for the company because the company needs to improve the efficiency and utilization of its production lines.

Keywords: Arena software, case study, production line, utilization.

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Authors: Prateek Kishore, T. M. Muruganandam

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Supersonic wind tunnel nozzles are generally capable of producing a constant Mach number flow in the test section of the wind tunnel. As a result, most of the supersonic vehicles are widely designed using steady state flow characteristics which may have errors while facing unsteady situations. This study aims to explore the possibility of varying the Mach number of the flow during wind tunnel operation. The nozzle walls are restricted to be inflexible for cooling near the throat due to high stagnation temperature requirement of the flow to simulate the conditions as experienced by the vehicle. Two simple independent mechanisms, rotation and translation of nozzle walls have been analyzed and the nozzle ranges have been optimized to vary the Mach number from Mach 2 to Mach 5 using minimum number of nozzles in the wind tunnel.

Keywords: Method of characteristics, Nozzle, supersonic wind tunnel, variable Mach number.

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Authors: Manuel J. Gazapo Lapayese

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It is a well-established fact that terrorism is one of the foremost threats to present-day international security. The creation of tools or mechanisms for confronting it in an effective and efficient manner will only be possible by way of an objective assessment of the phenomenon. In order to achieve this, this paper has the following three main objectives: Firstly, setting out to find the reasons that have prevented the establishment of a universally accepted definition of terrorism, and consequently trying to outline the main features defining the face of the terrorist threat in order to discover the fundamental goals of what is now a serious blight on world society. Secondly, trying to explain the differences between a terrorist movement and a terrorist organisation, and the reasons for which a terrorist movement can be led to transform itself into an organisation. After analysing these motivations and the characteristics of a terrorist organisation, an example of the latter will be succinctly analysed to help the reader understand the ideas expressed. Lastly, discovering and exposing the factors that can lead to the appearance of terrorist tendencies, and discussing the most efficient and effective responses that can be given to this global security threat.

Keywords: Responses, resilience, security, terrorism.

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: Bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: S. Sumathi, V. Sethuprakhash, W. J. Basirun

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This study was focused on polymer electrolytes containing methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and p-toluene sulfonic acid (pTSA) mixed with polyacrylamide (PAAm) respectively. Impedance Spectroscopy technique has been employed to compare the ionic conductivity of these polymer electrolytes. The ionic conductivity of the PAAm hydrogel electrolytes increase upon adding the sulfonic acids. Ionic conductivity of PAAm-pTSA is higher than PAAm-MSA. The electrochemical performance evaluations were done with the tin-air cells discharge at zero current for 30minutes and at constant current density of 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5 and 15mA/cm². The tin-air cell of PAAm-MSA produce higher specific discharge capacity compared to PAAm-pTSA. Open-circuit voltage measurement revealed a higher voltage for tin-air cell of PAAm-MSA which is 1.27V.

Keywords: Methane sulfonic acid, polyacrylamide, polymer gel electrolytes, p-toluene sulfonic acid.

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Authors: Norazam Arbin, Ishak Hashim

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Double-diffusive natural convection in an open top square cavity and heated from the side is studied numerically. Constant temperatures and concentration are imposed along the right and left walls while the heat balance at the surface is assumed to obey Newton-s law of cooling. The finite difference method is used to solve the dimensionless governing equations. The numerical results are reported for the effect of Marangoni number, Biot number and Prandtl number on the contours of streamlines, temperature and concentration. The predicted results for the average Nusselt number and Sherwood number are presented for various parametric conditions. The parameters involved are as follows; the thermal Marangoni number, 0 ≤ MaT ≤1000 , the solutal Marangoni number, 0 1000 c ≤ Ma ≤ , the Biot number, 0 ≤ Bi ≤ 6 , Grashof number, 5 Gr = 10 and aspect ratio 1. The study focused on both flows; thermal dominated, N = 0.8 , and compositional dominated, N = 1.3 .

Keywords: Double-diffusive, Marangoni effects, heat and mass transfer.

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Authors: Aron Miranda Burgos, Ergon Cugler de Moraes Silva

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In the present article, it is observed that the constant advancement of issues related to misinformation impacts the guarantee of the public policy cycle. Thus, it is found that the dissemination of false information has a direct influence on each of the component stages of this cycle. Therefore, in order to maintain scientific and theoretical credibility in the qualitative analysis process, it was necessary to logically interpose the concepts of firehosing of falsehood, fake news, public policy cycle, as well as using the epistemological and pragmatic mechanism at the intersection of such academic concepts, such as the scientific method. It was found, through the analysis of official documents and public notes, how the multiple theoretical perspectives evidence the commitment of the provision and elaboration of public policies, verifying the way in which the fake news impact each part of the process in this atmosphere.

Keywords: Firehosing of falsehood, governance, misinformation, post-truth.

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Sergio Toniato, Ernesto Benini

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The flow field over a three dimensional pole barn characterized by a cylindrical roof has been numerically investigated. Wind pressure and viscous loads acting on the agricultural building have been analyzed for several incoming wind directions, so as to evaluate the most critical load condition on the structure. A constant wind velocity profile, based on the maximum reference wind speed in the building site (peak gust speed worked out for 50 years return period) and on the local roughness coefficient, has been simulated. In order to contemplate also the hazard due to potential air wedging between the stored hay and the lower part of the ceiling, the effect of a partial filling of the barn has been investigated. The distribution of wind-induced loads on the structure have been determined, allowing a numerical quantification of the effect of wind direction on the induced stresses acting on a hemicylindrical roof.

Keywords: CFD, wind, building, hemicylindrical roof.

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Authors: Othon Kamariotis

Abstract:

This paper provides a flexible way of controlling Variable-Bit-Rate (VBR) of compressed digital video, applicable to the new H264 video compression standard. The entire video sequence is assessed in advance and the quantisation level is then set such that bit rate (and thus the frame rate) remains within predetermined limits compatible with the bandwidth of the transmission system and the capabilities of the remote end, while at the same time providing constant quality similar to VBR encoding. A process for avoiding buffer starvation by selectively eliminating frames from the encoded output at times when the frame rate is slow (large number of bits per frame) will be also described. Finally, the problem of buffer overflow will be solved by selectively eliminating frames from the received input to the decoder. The decoder detects the omission of the frames and resynchronizes the transmission by monitoring time stamps and repeating frames if necessary.

Keywords: H264, CBR, VBR, Video Streaming, Digital Video, Multimedia, Buffering, Encoding, Decoding, Compression, Video-On-Demand

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Authors: V. K. Singh, P. K. Padhy

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This paper describes identification of the two poles unstable SOPDT process, especially with large time delay. A new modified relay feedback identification method for two poles unstable SOPDT process is proposed. Furthermore, for the two poles unstable SOPDT process, an additional Derivative controller is incorporated parallel with relay to relax the constraint on the ratio of delay to the unstable time constant, so that the exact model parameters of unstable processes can be identified. To cope with measurement noise in practice, a low pass filter is suggested to get denoised output signal toimprove the exactness of model parameter of unstable process. PID Lead-lag tuning formulas are derived for two poles unstable (SOPDT) processes based on IMC principle. Simulation example illustrates the effectiveness and the simplicity of the proposed identification and control method.

Keywords: IMC structure, PID Lead-lag controller, Relayfeedback, SOPDT

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Authors: M. Benachour, N. Benachour, M. Benguediab, A. Hadjoui

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The knowledge of the nature of loading is very important in order to hold account on the total behavior such as vibration, shock, fatigue, etc. Fatigue present 90% of failure when loadings fatigues are very complex. In this paper a study of double through crack at hole for plate subjected to fatigue loading is presented. Various modes loading are studied where the applied load is the same one. The fatigue life is given where the effect of stress ratio is highlighted. This work is conducted on aluminum alloy 2024 T351 used for much aerospace and aeronautics applications. The fatigue crack growth behavior with constant amplitude is studied using the AFGROW code when Forman model is applied. The fatigue crack growth rate and fatigue life for different loading modes are compared with variation of others geometrical parameter such as thickness and dimensions of notch hole.

Keywords: Fatigue crack, mode loading, aluminum alloy

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Authors: N.S. Tomer, Phool Singh, Manoj Kumar

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The flow and heat transfer characteristics for natural convection along an inclined plate in a saturated porous medium with an applied magnetic field have been studied. The fluid viscosity has been assumed to be an inverse function of temperature. Assuming temperature vary as a power function of distance. The transformed ordinary differential equations have solved by numerical integration using Runge-Kutta method. The velocity and temperature profile components on the plate are computed and discussed in detail for various values of the variable viscosity parameter, inclination angle, magnetic field parameter, and real constant (λ). The results have also been interpreted with the aid of tables and graphs. The numerical values of Nusselt number have been calculated for the mentioned parameters.

Keywords: Heat Transfer, Magnetic Field, Porosity, Viscosity

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Authors: E. Srinivasan, D. Ebenezer

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Median filters with larger windows offer greater smoothing and are more robust than the median filters of smaller windows. However, the larger median smoothers (the median filters with the larger windows) fail to track low order polynomial trends in the signals. Due to this, constant regions are produced at the signal corners, leading to the loss of fine details. In this paper, an algorithm, which combines the ability of the 3-point median smoother in preserving the low order polynomial trends and the superior noise filtering characteristics of the larger median smoother, is introduced. The proposed algorithm (called the combiner algorithm in this paper) is evaluated for its performance on a test image corrupted with different types of noise and the results obtained are included.

Keywords: Image filtering, detail preservation, median filters, nonlinear filters, order statistics filtering, Rank order filtering.

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Authors: J. D. Burges, M. J. Hall, E. G. Lightsey

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A new dual-fluid concept was studied that could eventually find application for cold-gas propulsion for small space satellites or other constant flow applications. In basic form, the concept uses two different refrigerant working fluids, each having a different saturation vapor pressure. The higher vapor pressure refrigerant remains in the saturation phase and is used to pressurize the lower saturation vapor pressure fluid (the propellant) which remains in the compressed liquid phase. A demonstration thruster concept based on this principle was designed and built to study its operating characteristics. An automotive-type electronic fuel injector was used to meter and deliver the propellant. Ejected propellant mass and momentum were measured for several combinations of refrigerants and hydrocarbon fluids. The thruster has the advantage of delivering relatively large total impulse at low tank pressure within a small volume.

Keywords: cold-gas, nano-satellite, R134a, thruster

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Authors: Abhishek Priyam, Prabha Chand

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A theoretical investigation on the effect of collector aspect ratio on the thermal performance of wavy finned absorber solar air heaters has been performed. For the constant collector area, the various performance parameters have been calculated for plane and wavy finned solar air heaters. It has been found that the performance of wavy finned solar air heater improved with the increase in the collector aspect ratio. The performance of wavy finned solar air heater has been found 30 percent higher than those of plane solar air heater. The obtained results for wavy fin solar air heaters are compared with the available experimental data of most common type solar air heaters.

Keywords: Wavy fin, aspect ratio, solar air heater, thermal efficiency, collector efficiency factor, temperature rise.

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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