Search results for: Behavior model simulation

Authors: Yoshinori Kitsutaka, Fumiya Ikedo

Abstract:

In this study, the mechanical model of various anchors embedded in gypsum board subjected cyclic shear loading were investigated. Shear tests for anchors embedded in 200 mm square size gypsum board were conducted to measure the load - load displacement curves. The strength of the gypsum board was changed for three conditions and 12 kinds of anchors were selected which were ordinary used for gypsum board anchoring. The loading conditions were a monotonous loading and a cyclic loading controlled by a servo-controlled hydraulic loading system to achieve accurate measurement. The fracture energy for each of the anchors was estimated by the analysis of consumed energy calculated by the load - load displacement curve. The effect of the strength of gypsum board and the types of anchors on the shear properties of gypsum board anchors was cleared. A numerical model to predict the load-unload curve of shear deformation of gypsum board anchors caused by such as the earthquake load was proposed and the validity on the model was proved.

Keywords: Gypsum board, anchor, shear test, cyclic loading, load-unload curve.

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Authors: Mohamed Abdallah, Mostafa Warith, Roberto Narbaitz, Emil Petriu, Kevin Kennedy

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Heterogeneity of solid waste characteristics as well as the complex processes taking place within the landfill ecosystem motivated the implementation of soft computing methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy logic (FL), and their combination. The present work uses a hybrid ANN-FL model that employs knowledge-based FL to describe the process qualitatively and implements the learning algorithm of ANN to optimize model parameters. The model was developed to simulate and predict the landfill gas production at a given time based on operational parameters. The experimental data used were compiled from lab-scale experiment that involved various operating scenarios. The developed model was validated and statistically analyzed using F-test, linear regression between actual and predicted data, and mean squared error measures. Overall, the simulated landfill gas production rates demonstrated reasonable agreement with actual data. The discussion focused on the effect of the size of training datasets and number of training epochs.

Keywords: Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), gas production, landfill

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Authors: Ohn Zin Lin, Okka, Cho Cho Myint

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It is important to consider the effects of transformers on distribution system because they have the highest impact on system reliability. It is generally said that parallel operation of transformers (POT) can improve the system reliability. However, the estimation approach can be also considered for accuracy. In this paper, we propose a three-state components model and equations to determine the reliability improvement by POT, and cooperation of POT and distributed generation (DG). Based on the proposed model and techniques, the effect of POT is analyzed in four different tests with the consideration of conventional distribution system, distribution automation system (DAS) and DG. According to the results, the reliability is greatly improved by cooperation of POT, DAS and DG. The proposed model and methods are applicable to not only developing countries which have conventional distribution system but also developed countries in which DAS has already installed.

Keywords: Distribution system, reliability, dispersed generator, energy not supply, transformer parallel operation.

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Authors: Marcello Bettoni

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As a learning theory tries to borrow from science a framework to found its method, it shows paradoxes and paralysing contraddictions. This results, on one hand, from adopting a learning/teaching model as it were a mere “transfer of data" (mechanical learning approach), and on the other hand from borrowing the complexity theory (an indeterministic and non-linear model), that risks to vanish every educational effort. This work is aimed at describing existing criticism, unveiling the antinomic nature of such paradoxes, focussing on a view where neither the mechanical learning perspective nor the chaotic and nonlinear model can threaten and jeopardize the educational work. Author intends to go back over the steps that led to these paradoxes and to unveil their antinomic nature. Actually this could serve the purpose to explain some current misunderstandings about the real usefulness of Ict within the youth-s learning process and growth.

Keywords: Antinomy, complexity, Leibniz, paradox

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Authors: Marcel Schneider, Nils Nießen

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Microscopic simulation tool kits allow for consideration of the two processes of railway operations and the previous timetable production. Block occupation conflicts on both process levels are often solved by using defined train priorities. These conflict resolutions (dispatching decisions) generate reactionary delays to the involved trains. The sum of reactionary delays is commonly used to evaluate the quality of railway operations, which describes the timetable robustness. It is either compared to an acceptable train performance or the delays are appraised economically by linear monetary functions. It is impossible to adequately evaluate dispatching decisions without a well-founded objective function. This paper presents a new approach for the evaluation of dispatching decisions. The approach uses mode choice models and considers the behaviour of the end-customers. These models evaluate the reactionary delays in more detail and consider other competing modes of transport. The new approach pursues the coupling of a microscopic model of railway operations with the macroscopic choice mode model. At first, it will be implemented for railway operations process but it can also be used for timetable production. The evaluation considers the possibility for the customer to interchange to other transport modes. The new approach starts to look at rail and road, but it can also be extended to air travel. The result of mode choice models is the modal split. The reactions by the end-customers have an impact on the revenue of the train operating companies. Different purposes of travel have different payment reserves and tolerances towards late running. Aside from changes to revenues, longer journey times can also generate additional costs. The costs are either time- or track-specific and arise from required changes to rolling stock or train crew cycles. Only the variable values are summarised in the contribution margin, which is the base for the monetary evaluation of delays. The contribution margin is calculated for different possible solutions to the same conflict. The conflict resolution is optimised until the monetary loss becomes minimal. The iterative process therefore determines an optimum conflict resolution by monitoring the change to the contribution margin. Furthermore, a monetary value of each dispatching decision can also be derived.

Keywords: Choice of mode, monetary evaluation, railway operations, reactionary delays.

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Authors: Amir Vahid Dastjerdi, Kamalrulnizam Abu Bakar

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The first generation of Mobile Agents based Intrusion Detection System just had two components namely data collection and single centralized analyzer. The disadvantage of this type of intrusion detection is if connection to the analyzer fails, the entire system will become useless. In this work, we propose novel hybrid model for Mobile Agent based Distributed Intrusion Detection System to overcome the current problem. The proposed model has new features such as robustness, capability of detecting intrusion against the IDS itself and capability of updating itself to detect new pattern of intrusions. In addition, our proposed model is also capable of tackling some of the weaknesses of centralized Intrusion Detection System models.

Keywords: Distributed Intrusion Detection System, Mobile Agents, Network Security.

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Authors: Linyu Wang, Furui Huo, Jianhong Xiang

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The Doppler shift generated by high-speed movement and multipath effects in the channel are the main reasons for the generation of a time-frequency doubly-selective (DS) channel. There is severe inter-carrier interference (ICI) in the DS channel. Channel estimation for an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system over a DS channel is very difficult. The simultaneous orthogonal matching pursuit (SOMP) algorithm under distributed compressive sensing theory (DCS-SOMP) has been used in channel estimation for OFDM systems over DS channels. However, the reconstruction accuracy of the DCS-SOMP algorithm is not high enough in the low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) stage. To solve this problem, in this paper, we propose an improved DCS-SOMP algorithm based on the inner product difference comparison operation (DCS-DCSOMP). The reconstruction accuracy is improved by increasing the number of candidate indexes and designing the comparison conditions of inner product difference. We combine the DCS-DCSOMP algorithm with the basis expansion model (BEM) to reduce the complexity of channel estimation. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and its advantages over other algorithms.

Keywords: OFDM, doubly selective, channel estimation, compressed sensing

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Authors: Juha Korpijärvi, Jari Kortelainen

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The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.

Keywords: Dynamic programming, Electric distribution system, Maintenance

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Authors: Carine Moussaed, Stephen Wornom, Bruno Koobus, Maria Vittoria Salvetti, Alain Dervieux,

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The effects of dynamic subgrid scale (SGS) models are investigated in variational multiscale (VMS) LES simulations of bluff body flows. The spatial discretization is based on a mixed finite element/finite volume formulation on unstructured grids. In the VMS approach used in this work, the separation between the largest and the smallest resolved scales is obtained through a variational projection operator and a finite volume cell agglomeration. The dynamic version of Smagorinsky and WALE SGS models are used to account for the effects of the unresolved scales. In the VMS approach, these effects are only modeled in the smallest resolved scales. The dynamic VMS-LES approach is applied to the simulation of the flow around a circular cylinder at Reynolds numbers 3900 and 20000 and to the flow around a square cylinder at Reynolds numbers 22000 and 175000. It is observed as in previous studies that the dynamic SGS procedure has a smaller impact on the results within the VMS approach than in LES. But improvements are demonstrated for important feature like recirculating part of the flow. The global prediction is improved for a small computational extra cost.

Keywords: variational multiscale LES, dynamic SGS model, unstructured grids, circular cylinder, square cylinder.

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Authors: Kh.Farhangdoust, H.Kamankesh

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Undoubtedly, chassis is one of the most important parts of a vehicle. Chassis that today are produced for vehicles are made up of four parts. These parts are jointed together by screwing. Transverse parts are called cross member. This study reviews the stress generated by cyclic laboratory loads in front cross member of Peugeot 405. In this paper the finite element method is used to simulate the welding process and to determine the physical response of the spot-welded joints. Analysis is done by the Abaqus software. The Stresses generated in cross member structure are generally classified into two groups: The stresses remained in form of residual stresses after welding process and the mechanical stress generated by cyclic load. Accordingly the total stress must be obtained by determining residual stress and mechanical stress separately and then sum them according to the superposition principle. In order to improve accuracy, material properties including physical, thermal and mechanical properties were supposed to be temperature-dependent. Simulation shows that maximum Von Misses stresses are located at special points. The model results are then compared to the experimental results which are reported by producing factory and good agreement is observed.

Keywords: Chassis, cross member, residual stress, resistancespot weld.

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Authors: Keuk Jong Yu, Sang Hee Kang, Sung Chang You

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In Korea, the technology of a load fo nuclear power plant has been being developed. automatic controller which is able to control temperature and axial power distribution was developed. identification algorithm and a model predictive contact former transforms the nuclear reactor status into numerically. And the latter uses them and ge manipulated values such as two kinds of control ro this automatic controller, the performance of a coperation was evaluated. As a result, the automatic generated model parameters of a nuclear react to nuclear reactor average temperature and axial power the desired targets during a daily load follow.

Keywords: axial power distribution, model reactor temperature, system identification

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Authors: Alvaro J. P. Ramos, Wellington S. Mota, Yendys S. Dantas

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This paper analyses the torsional efforts in gas turbine-generator shafts caused by high speed automatic reclosing of transmission lines. This issue is especially important for cases of three phase short circuit and unsuccessful reclosure of lines in the vicinity of the thermal plant. The analysis was carried out for the thermal plant TERMOPERNAMBUCO located on Northeast region of Brazil. It is shown that stress level caused by lines unsuccessful reclosing can be several times higher than terminal three-phase short circuit. Simulations were carried out with detailed shaft torsional model provided by machine manufacturer and with the “Alternative Transient Program – ATP" program [1]. Unsuccessful three phase reclosing for selected lines in the area closed to the plant indicated most critical cases. Also, reclosing first the terminal next to the gas turbine gererator will lead also to the most critical condition. Considering that the values of transient torques are very sensible to the instant of reclosing, simulation of unsuccessful reclosing with statistics ATP switch were carried out for determination of most critical transient torques for each section of the generator turbine shaft.

Keywords: Torsional Efforts, Thermal Machine, GasTurbine, Automatic Reclosing.

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Authors: Kaustubh Chakradeo, Michael Delves, Sofya Titarenko

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Malaria is a serious disease which affects hundreds of millions of people around the world, each year. If not treated in time, it can be fatal. Despite recent developments in malaria diagnostics, the microscopy method to detect malaria remains the most common. Unfortunately, the accuracy of microscopic diagnostics is dependent on the skill of the microscopist and limits the throughput of malaria diagnosis. With the development of Artificial Intelligence tools and Deep Learning techniques in particular, it is possible to lower the cost, while achieving an overall higher accuracy. In this paper, we present a VGG-based model and compare it with previously developed models for identifying infected cells. Our model surpasses most previously developed models in a range of the accuracy metrics. The model has an advantage of being constructed from a relatively small number of layers. This reduces the computer resources and computational time. Moreover, we test our model on two types of datasets and argue that the currently developed deep-learning-based methods cannot efficiently distinguish between infected and contaminated cells. A more precise study of suspicious regions is required.

Keywords: Malaria, deep learning, DL, convolution neural network, CNN, thin blood smears.

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Authors: Tetsuro Saeki, Yuichi Kato, Shoutarou Mizuno

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STRIM (Statistical Test Rule Induction Method) has been proposed as a method to effectively induct if-then rules from the decision table which is considered as a sample set obtained from the population of interest. Its usefulness has been confirmed by simulation experiments specifying rules in advance, and by comparison with conventional methods. However, scope for future development remains before STRIM can be applied to the analysis of real-world data sets. The first requirement is to determine the size of the dataset needed for inducting true rules, since finding statistically significant rules is the core of the method. The second is to examine the capacity of rule induction from datasets with contaminated attribute values created by missing data and noise, since real-world datasets usually contain such contaminated data. This paper examines the first problem theoretically, in connection with the rule length. The second problem is then examined in a simulation experiment, utilizing the critical size of dataset derived from the first step. The experimental results show that STRIM is highly robust in the analysis of datasets with contaminated attribute values, and hence is applicable to real-world data

Keywords: Rule induction, decision table, missing data, noise.

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Authors: Bahareh Amirjabbari, Nadia Bhuiyan

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In recent decades, the lean methodology, and the development of its principles and concepts have widely been applied in supply chain management. One of the most important strategies of being lean is having efficient inventory within the chain. On the other hand, managing inventory efficiently requires appropriate management of safety stock in order to protect against increasing stretch in the breaking points of the supply chain, which in turn can result in possible reduction of inventory. This paper applies a safety stock cost minimization model in a manufacturing company. The model results in optimum levels and locations of safety stock within the company-s supply chain in order to minimize total logistics costs.

Keywords: Cost, efficient inventory, optimization, safety stock, supply chain

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Authors: Jian Shi, Baoguo Yu, Haonan Jia, Meng Liu, Ping Huang

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Adapting to the flexibility of war, a large number of guided weapons launch from aircraft. Therefore, the inertial navigation system loaded in the weapon needs to undergo an alignment process in the air. This article proposes the following methods to the problem of inaccurate modeling of the system under large misalignment angles, the accuracy reduction of filtering caused by outliers, and the noise changes in GPS signals: first, considering the large misalignment errors of Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS)/GPS, a more accurate model is made rather than to make a small-angle approximation, and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) algorithms are used to estimate the state; then, taking into account the impact of GPS noise changes on the fine alignment algorithm, the innovation adaptive filtering algorithm is introduced to estimate the GPS’s noise in real-time; at the same time, in order to improve the anti-interference ability of the air fine alignment algorithm, a robust filtering algorithm based on outlier detection is combined with the air fine alignment algorithm to improve the robustness of the algorithm. The algorithm can improve the alignment accuracy and robustness under interference conditions, which is verified by simulation.

Keywords: Air alignment, fine alignment, inertial navigation system, integrated navigation system, UKF.

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Authors: Siong W. Lee, Kang H. Tan, En H. Yang

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This paper presents the results of an experimental study undertaken to evaluate the local bond stress-slip response of short embedment of reinforcing bars in normal concrete (NC) and high performance fiber reinforced cement composites (HPFRCC) blocks. Long embedment was investigated as well to gain insights on the distribution of strain, slip, bar stress and bond stress along the bar especially in post-yield range. A total of 12 specimens were tested, by means of pull-out of the reinforcing bars from concrete blocks. It was found that the enhancement of local bond strength can be reached up to 50% and ductility of the bond behavior was improved significantly if HPFRCC is used. Also, under a constant strain at loaded end, HPFRCC has delayed yielding of bars at other location from the loaded end. Hence, the reduction of bond stress was slower for HPFRCC in comparison with NC. Due to the same reason, the total slips at loaded end for HPFRCC was smaller than NC as expected. Test results indicated that HPFRCC has better bond slip behavior which makes it a suitable material to be employed in anchorage zone such as beam-column joints.

Keywords: Bond stress, high performance fiber reinforced cement composites, slip, strain.

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Authors: Karamitsos Ioannis, Orfanidis Konstantinos

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In this paper an analysis of blackouts in electric power transmission systems is implemented using a model and studied in simple networks with a regular topology. The proposed model describes load demand and network improvements evolving on a slow timescale as well as the fast dynamics of cascading overloads and outages.

Keywords: Blackout, Generator, Load, Power Load.

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Authors: Chao. Huo, Roger. Barènes, Jérémie. Gressier, Gilles.Grondin

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The parametrical study of Shrouded Contra-rotating Rotor was done in this paper based on 2D axisymmetric simulations. The calculations were made with an actuator disk as double rotor model. It objects to explore and quantify the effects of different shroud geometry parameters mainly using the performance of power loading (PL), which could evaluate the whole propulsion system capability as 5 Newtontotal thrust generationfor hover demand. The numerical results show that:The increase of nozzle radius is desired but limited by the flow separation, its optimal design is around 1.15 times rotor radius, the viscosity effects greatly constraint the influence of nozzle shape, the divergent angle around 10.5° performs best for chosen nozzle length;The parameters of inlet such as leading edge curvature, radius and internal shape do not affect thrust great but play an important role in pressure distribution which could produce most part of shroud thrust, they should be chosen according to the reduction of adverse pressure gradients to reduce the risk of boundary separation.

Keywords: Axisymmetric simulation, parametrical design, power loading, Shrouded Contra-Rotating Rotor.

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Authors: M.H.Ghaffari

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The present study is concerned with effect of exciting boundary layer on increase in heat transfer from flat surfaces. As any increase in heat transfer between a fluid inside a face and another one outside of it can cause an increase in some equipment's efficiency, so at this present we have tried to increase the wall's heat transfer coefficient by exciting the fluid boundary layer. By a collision between flow and the placed block at the fluid way, the flow pattern and the boundary layer stability will change. The flow way inside the channel is simulated as a 2&3-dimensional channel by Gambit TM software. With studying the achieved results by this simulation for the flow way inside the channel with a block coordinating with Fluent TM software, it's determined that the figure and dimensions of the exciter are too important for exciting the boundary layer so that any increase in block dimensions in vertical side against the flow and any reduction in its dimensions at the flow side can increase the average heat transfer coefficient from flat surface and increase the flow pressure loss. Using 2&3-dimensional analysis on exciting the flow at the flow way inside a channel by cylindrical block at the same time with the external flow, we came to this conclusion that the heat flux transferred from the surface, is increased considerably in terms of the condition without excitation. Also, the k-e turbulence model is used.

Keywords: Cooling, Heat transfer, Turbulence, Excitingboundary layer.

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Authors: Thammasak Thianniwet, Satidchoke Phosaard, Wasan Pattara-Atikom

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We proposed a technique to identify road traffic congestion levels from velocity of mobile sensors with high accuracy and consistent with motorists- judgments. The data collection utilized a GPS device, a webcam, and an opinion survey. Human perceptions were used to rate the traffic congestion levels into three levels: light, heavy, and jam. Then the ratings and velocity were fed into a decision tree learning model (J48). We successfully extracted vehicle movement patterns to feed into the learning model using a sliding windows technique. The parameters capturing the vehicle moving patterns and the windows size were heuristically optimized. The model achieved accuracy as high as 99.68%. By implementing the model on the existing traffic report systems, the reports will cover comprehensive areas. The proposed method can be applied to any parts of the world.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system (ITS), traffic congestion level, human judgment, decision tree (J48), geographic positioning system (GPS).

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Authors: Chris Phan, Yong Seok Park

Abstract:

The Toyota Camry is one of the best-selling cars in America. It is economical, reliable, and most importantly, safe. These attributes allowed the Camry to be the trustworthy choice when choosing dependable vehicle. However, a new finding brought question to the Camry’s safety. Since 1997, the Camry received a “good” rating on its moderate overlap front crash test through the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety. In 2012, the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety introduced a frontal small overlap crash test into the overall evaluation of vehicle occupant safety test. The 2012 Camry received a “poor” rating on this new test, while the 2015 Camry redeemed itself with a “good” rating once again. This study aims to find a possible solution that Toyota implemented to reduce the severity of a frontal small overlap crash in the Camry during a mid-cycle update. The purpose of this study is to analyze and evaluate the performance of various A-pillar shapes as energy absorbing structures in improving passenger safety in a frontal crash. First, A-pillar structures of the 2012 and 2015 Camry were modeled using CAD software, namely SolidWorks. Then, a crash test simulation using ANSYS software, was applied to the A-pillars to analyze the behavior of the structures in similar conditions. Finally, the results were compared to safety values of cabin intrusion to determine the crashworthy behaviors of both A-pillar structures by measuring total deformation. This study highlights that it is possible that Toyota improved the shape of the A-pillar in the 2015 Camry in order to receive a “good” rating from the IIHS safety evaluation once again. These findings can possibly be used to increase safety performance in future vehicles to decrease passenger injury or fatality.

Keywords: A-pillar, crashworthiness, design synthesis, finite element analysis.

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Authors: František Šebek, Petr Kubík, Jindřich Petruška, Jiří Hůlka

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Present study is aimed on the cutting process of circular cross-section rods where the fracture is used to separate one rod into two pieces. Incorporating the phenomenological ductile fracture model into the explicit formulation of finite element method, the process can be analyzed without the necessity of realizing too many real experiments which could be expensive in case of repetitive testing in different conditions. In the present paper, the steel AISI 1045 was examined and the tensile tests of smooth and notched cylindrical bars were conducted together with biaxial testing of the notched tube specimens to calibrate material constants of selected phenomenological ductile fracture models. These were implemented into the Abaqus/Explicit through user subroutine VUMAT and used for cutting process simulation. As the calibration process is based on variables which cannot be obtained directly from experiments, numerical simulations of fracture tests are inevitable part of the calibration. Finally, experiments regarding the cutting process were carried out and predictive capability of selected fracture models is discussed. Concluding remarks then make the summary of gained experience both with the calibration and application of particular ductile fracture criteria.

Keywords: Ductile fracture, phenomenological criteria, cutting process, explicit formulation, AISI 1045 steel.

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Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

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Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: Load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Neha Khanduja

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This paper presents a comparative analysis of continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR) control based on adaptive control and optimal tuning of PID control based on particle swarm optimization. In the design of adaptive control, Model reference adaptive control (MRAC) scheme is used, in which the adaptation law have been developed by MIT rule & Lyapunov’s rule. In PSO control parameters of PID controller is tuned by using the concept of particle swarm optimization to get optimized operating point for minimum integral square error (ISE) condition. The results show the adjustment of PID parameters converting into the optimal operating point and the good control response can be obtained by the PSO technique.

Keywords: Model reference adaptive control (MRAC), optimal control, particle swarm optimization (PSO).

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Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

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The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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Authors: K. P. Oyeduntan, K. Oshinubi

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Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the sparkplug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria.

Keywords: Economy, GDP, maritime transport, port, regression.

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Authors: Bunakiye R. Japheth, Ogude U. Cyril

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Since the process of transforming user requirements to modeling constructs are not very well supported by domain-specific frameworks, it became necessary to integrate domain requirements with the specific architectures to achieve an integrated customizable solutions space via artifact orientation. Domain-specific modeling language specifications of model-driven engineering technologies focus more on requirements within a particular domain, which can be tailored to aid the domain expert in expressing domain concepts effectively. Modeling processes through domain-specific language formalisms are highly volatile due to dependencies on domain concepts or used process models. A capable solution is given by artifact orientation that stresses on the results rather than expressing a strict dependence on complicated platforms for model creation and development. Based on this premise, domain-specific methods for producing artifacts without having to take into account the complexity and variability of platforms for model definitions can be integrated to support customizable development. In this paper, we discuss methods for the integration capabilities and necessities within a common structure and semantics that contribute a metamodel for artifact-orientation, which leads to a reusable software layer with concrete syntax capable of determining design intents from domain expert. These concepts forming the language formalism are established from models explained within the oil and gas pipelines industry.

Keywords: Control process, metrics of engineering, structured abstraction, semantic model.

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Authors: A. K. Pradhan, M. K. Mohanty, S. K. Kar

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The power system utility has started to think about the green power technology in order to have an eco-friendly environment. The green power technology utilizes renewable energy sources for reduction of GHG emissions. Odisha state (India) is very rich in potential of renewable energy sources especially in solar energy (about 300 solar days), for installation of grid connected photovoltaic system. This paper focuses on the utilization of photovoltaic systems in an Institute building of Bhubaneswar city, Odisha. Different data like solar insolation (kW/m²/day), sunshine duration has been collected from metrological stations for Bhubaneswar city. The required electrical power and cost are calculated for daily load of 1.0 kW. The HOMER (Hybrid Optimization Model of Electric Renewable) software is used to estimate system size and its performance analysis. The simulation result shows that the cost of energy (COE) is $ 0.194/kWh, the Operating cost is $63/yr and the net present cost (NPC) is $3,917. The energy produced from PV array is 1,756kWh/yr and energy purchased from grid is 410kWh/yr. The AC primary load consumption is 1314 kWh/yr and the Grid sales are 746 kWh/yr. One battery is connected in parallel with 12V DC Bus and the usable nominal capacity 2.4 kWh with 9.6 h autonomy capacity.

Keywords: Economic assessment, HOMER, Optimization, Photovoltaic (PV), Renewable energy.

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Authors: Leena Sharma

Abstract:

Chemical reaction and diffusion are important phenomena in quantitative neurobiology and biophysics. The knowledge of the dynamics of calcium Ca²⁺ is very important in cellular physiology because Ca²⁺ binds to many proteins and regulates their activity and interactions Calcium waves propagate inside cells due to a regenerative mechanism known as calcium-induced calcium release. Buffer-mediated calcium diffusion in the cytosol plays a crucial role in the process. A mathematical model has been developed for calcium waves by assuming the buffers are in equilibrium with calcium i.e., the rapid buffering approximation for a one dimensional unsteady state case. This model incorporates important physical and physiological parameters like dissociation rate, diffusion rate, total buffer concentration and influx. The finite difference method has been employed to predict [Ca²⁺] and buffer concentration time course regardless of the calcium influx. The comparative studies of the effect of the rapid buffered diffusion and kinetic parameters of the model on the concentration time course have been performed.

Keywords: Calcium Profile, Rapid Buffering Approximation, Influx, Dissociation rate constant.

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