Search results for: back propagation neural network model.

Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: Yanqun Li, Hong Geng

Abstract:

The occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 has led to severe damage to the rural areas of Chengdu city, such as the rupture of the social network, the stagnation of economic production and the rupture of living space. The post-disaster reconstruction has become a sustainable issue. As an important link to maintain the order of rural social development, social network should be an important content of post-disaster reconstruction. Therefore, this paper takes rural reconstruction communities in earthquake-stricken areas of Chengdu as the research object and adopts sociological research methods such as field survey, observation and interview to try to understand the transformation of rural social relations network under the influence of earthquake and its impact on rural space. It has found that rural societies under the earthquake generally experienced three phases: the break of stable social relations, the transition of temporary non-normal state, and the reorganization of social networks. The connotation of phased rural social relations also changed accordingly: turn to a new division of labor on the social orientation, turn to a capital flow and redistribution in new production mode on the capital orientation, and turn to relative decentralization after concentration on the spatial dimension. Along with such changes, rural areas have emerged some social issues such as the alienation of competition in the new industry division, the low social connection, the significant redistribution of capital, and the lack of public space. Based on a comprehensive review of these issues, this paper proposes the corresponding response mechanism. First of all, a reasonable division of labor should be established within the villages to realize diversified commodity supply. Secondly, the villages should adjust the industrial type to promote the equitable participation of capital allocation groups. Finally, external public spaces should be added to strengthen the field of social interaction within the communities.

Keywords: Social relations, social support networks, industrial division, capital allocation, public space.

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Authors: Kahil Amar, Meziani Faroudja, Khelil Nacim

Abstract:

The principal objective of this study is the evaluation of the seismic performance of reinforced concrete frame structures, taking into account of the behavior laws, reflecting the real behavior of materials, using CASTEM2000 software. A finite element model used is based in modified Takeda model with Timoshenko elements for columns and beams. This model is validated on a Vecchio experimental reinforced concrete (RC) frame model. Then, a study focused on the behavior of a RC frame with three-level and three-story in order to visualize the positioning the plastic hinge (plastic rotation), determined from the curvature distribution along the elements. The results obtained show that the beams of the 1^st and 2^nd level developed a very large plastic rotations, or these rotations exceed the values corresponding to CP (Collapse prevention with cp q_CP = 0.02 rad), against those developed at the 3^rd level, are between IO and LS (Immediate occupancy and life Safety with q_IO = 0.005 rad and rad q_LS = 0.01 respectively), so the beams of first and second levels submit a very significant damage.

Keywords: Seismic performance, performance level, pushover analysis, plastic rotation, plastic hinge.

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Authors: K. Sudprasert, M. Precharattana, N. Nuttavut, D. Triampo, B. Pattanasiri, Y. Lenbury, W. Triampo

Abstract:

The study of non-equilibrium systems has attracted increasing interest in recent years, mainly due to the lack of theoretical frameworks, unlike their equilibrium counterparts. Studying the steady state and/or simple systems is thus one of the main interests. Hence in this work we have focused our attention on the driven lattice gas model (DLG model) consisting of interacting particles subject to an external field E. The dynamics of the system are given by hopping of particles to nearby empty sites with rates biased for jumps in the direction of E. Having used small two dimensional systems of DLG model, the stochastic properties at nonequilibrium steady state were analytically studied. To understand the non-equilibrium phenomena, we have applied the analytic approach via master equation to calculate probability function and analyze violation of detailed balance in term of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to validate the analytic results.

Keywords: Non-equilibrium, lattice gas, stochastic process

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Authors: Luis M. Villar, Olga M. Alegre

Abstract:

Finding effective ways of improving university quality assurance requires, as well, a retraining of the staff. This article illustrates an Online Programme of Excellence Model (OPEM), based on the European quality assurance model, for improving participants- formative programme standards. The results of applying this OPEM indicate the necessity of quality policies that support the evaluators- competencies to improve formative programmes. The study concludes by outlining how faculty and agency staff can use OPEM for the internal and external quality assurance of formative programmes.

Keywords: Formative assessment, Online faculty excellence program, Teaching competencies, University quality assurance.

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Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

Abstract:

Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R², in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: Meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design.

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Authors: S. Umarani, D. Sharmila

Abstract:

A Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is a major threat to cyber security. It originates from the network layer or the application layer of compromised/attacker systems which are connected to the network. The impact of this attack ranges from the simple inconvenience to use a particular service to causing major failures at the targeted server. When there is heavy traffic flow to a target server, it is necessary to classify the legitimate access and attacks. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to detect DDoS attacks from the traces of traffic flow. An access matrix is created from the traces. As the access matrix is multi dimensional, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the attributes used for detection. Two classifiers Naive Bayes and K-Nearest neighborhood are used to classify the traffic as normal or abnormal. The performance of the classifier with PCA selected attributes and actual attributes of access matrix is compared by the detection rate and False Positive Rate (FPR).

Keywords: Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack, Application layer DDoS, DDoS Detection, K- Nearest neighborhood classifier, Naive Bayes Classifier, Principle Component Analysis.

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Authors: Ashu Ahuja, Shiv Narayan, Jagdish Kumar

Abstract:

This paper realized the 2-DOF controller structure for first order with time delay systems. The co-prime factorization is used to design observer based controller K(s), representing one degree of freedom. The problem is based on H∞ norm of mixed sensitivity and aims to achieve stability, robustness and disturbance rejection. Then, the other degree of freedom, prefilter F(s), is formulated as fixed structure polynomial controller to meet open loop processing of reference model. This model matching problem is solved by minimizing integral square error between reference model and proposed model. The feedback controller and prefilter designs are posed as optimization problem and solved using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). To show the efficiency of the designed approach different variety of processes are taken and compared for analysis.

Keywords: 2-DOF, integral square error, mixed sensitivity function, observer based controller, particle swarm optimization, prefilter.

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Authors: Altab Hossain, Ataur Rahman, Jakir Hossen, A.K.M. P. Iqbal, SK. Hasan

Abstract:

The measurement of aerodynamic forces and moments acting on an aircraft model is important for the development of wind tunnel measurement technology to predict the performance of the full scale vehicle. The potentials of an aircraft model with and without winglet and aerodynamic characteristics with NACA wing No. 65-3- 218 have been studied using subsonic wind tunnel of 1 m × 1 m rectangular test section and 2.5 m long of Aerodynamics Laboratory Faculty of Engineering (University Putra Malaysia). Focusing on analyzing the aerodynamic characteristics of the aircraft model, two main issues are studied in this paper. First, a six component wind tunnel external balance is used for measuring lift, drag and pitching moment. Secondly, Tests are conducted on the aircraft model with and without winglet of two configurations at Reynolds numbers 1.7×105, 2.1×105, and 2.5×105 for different angle of attacks. Fuzzy logic approach is found as efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization of aerodynamic characteristics. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between lift and drag coefficients, with free-stream velocities and angle of attacks, and to illustrate how fuzzy logic might play an important role in study of lift aerodynamic characteristics of an aircraft model with the addition of certain winglet configurations. Results of the developed fuzzy logic were compared with the experimental results. For lift coefficient analysis, the mean of actual and predicted values were 0.62 and 0.60 respectively. The coreelation between actual and predicted values (from FLS model) of lift coefficient in different angle of attack was found as 0.99. The mean relative error of actual and predicted valus was found as 5.18% for the velocity of 26.36 m/s which was found to be less than the acceptable limits (10%). The goodness of fit of prediction value was 0.95 which was close to 1.0.

Keywords: Wind tunnel; Winglet; Lift coefficient; Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Romain Bosquet, Pierre-Olivier Vandanjon, Alex Coiret, Tristan Lorino

Abstract:

In the hardening energy context, the transport sector which constitutes a large worldwide energy demand has to be improving for decrease energy demand and global warming impacts. In a controversial situation where subsists an increasing demand for long-distance and high-speed travels, high-speed trains offer many advantages, as consuming significantly less energy than road or air transports. At the project phase of new rail infrastructures, it is nowadays important to characterize accurately the energy that will be induced by its operation phase, in addition to other more classical criteria as construction costs and travel time. Current literature consumption models used to estimate railways operation phase are obsolete or not enough accurate for taking into account the newest train or railways technologies. In this paper, an updated model of consumption for high-speed is proposed, based on experimental data obtained from full-scale tests performed on a new high-speed line. The assessment of the model is achieved by identifying train parameters and measured power consumptions for more than one hundred train routes. Perspectives are then discussed to use this updated model for accurately assess the energy impact of future railway infrastructures.

Keywords: High-speed train, energy, model, track profile, infrastructure

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Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Zaidi Mohd Ripin

Abstract:

In a metal forming process, the friction between the material and the tools influences the process by modifying the stress distribution of the workpiece. This frictional behaviour is often taken into account by using a constant coefficient of friction in the finite element simulations of sheet metal forming processes. However, friction coefficient varies in time and space with many parameters. The Stribeck friction model is investigated in this study to predict springback behaviour of AA6061-T4 sheets during V-bending process. The coefficient of friction in Stribeck curve depends on sliding velocity and contact pressure. The plane-strain bending process is simulated in ABAQUS/Standard. We compared the computed punch load-stroke curves and springback related to the constant coefficient of friction with the defined friction model. The results clearly showed that the new friction model provides better agreement between experiments and results of numerical simulations. The influence of friction models on stress distribution in the workpiece is also studied numerically

Keywords: Friction model, Stress distribution, V-bending.

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Authors: Lusungu Ndovi

Abstract:

Radio propagation from point-to-point is affected by the physical channel in many ways. A signal arriving at a destination travels through a number of different paths which are referred to as multi-paths. Research in this area of wireless communications has progressed well over the years with the research taking different angles of focus. By this is meant that some researchers focus on ways of reducing or eluding Multipath effects whilst others focus on ways of mitigating the effects of Multipath through compensation schemes. Baseband processing is seen as one field of signal processing that is cardinal to the advancement of software defined radio technology. This has led to wide research into the carrying out certain algorithms at baseband. This paper considers compensating for Multipath for Frequency Modulated signals. The compensation process is carried out at Radio frequency (RF) and at Quadrature baseband (QBB) and the results are compared. Simulations are carried out using MatLab so as to show the benefits of working at lower QBB frequencies than at RF.

Keywords: Quadrature baseband, Radio frequency, MultipathCompensation, Frequency modulation, Signal Processing.

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Authors: Intan Izafina Idrus, Mardina Abdullah, Alina Marie Hasbi, Asnawi Husin

Abstract:

This paper presents the result of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (LSTID) observation during moderate magnetic storm event on 25 October 2011 with SYM-H ~ -160 nT and Kp ~ 7 over Peninsular Malaysia at equatorial region using vertical total electron content (VTEC) from the Global Positioning System (GPS) observation measurement. The propagation of the LSTID signatures in the TEC measurements over Peninsular Malaysia was also investigated using VTEC map. The LSTID was found to propagate equatorward during this event. The results showed that the LSTID propagated with an average phase velocity of 526.41 m/s and average periods of 140 min. The occurrence of this LSTID was also found to be the subsequent effects of substorm activities in the auroral region.

Keywords: Global Positioning System (GPS), large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (LSTID), moderate geomagnetic storm, vertical total electron content (VTEC).

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Authors: Shoji Katagiri

Abstract:

This paper is to clarify the relationship between ICT and income inequality. To do so, we develop the general equilibrium model with ICT investment, obtain the equilibrium solutions, and then simulate the model with these solutions for some OECD countries. As a result, generally, during the corresponding periods we confirm that the relationship between ICT investment and income inequality is positive. In this mode, the increment of the ratio of ICT investment to the aggregated investment in stock enhances the capital’s share of income, and finally leads to income inequality such as the increase of the share of the top decile income. Although we confirm the positive relationship between ICT investment and income inequality, the upward trend for that relationship depends on the values of parameters for the making use of the simulations and these parameters are not deterministic in the magnitudes on the calculated results for the simulations.

Keywords: ICT, inequality, capital accumulation, technology.

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Authors: G. Renukadevi, K. Rajambal

Abstract:

This paper presents a generalized d-q model of n- phase induction motor drive. Multi -phase (n-phase) induction motor (more than three phases) drives possess several advantages over conventional three-phase drives, such as reduced current/phase without increasing voltage/phase, lower torque pulsation, higher torque density, fault tolerance, stability, high efficiency and lower current ripple. When the number of phases increases, it is also possible to increase the power in the same frame. In this paper, a generalized dq-axis model is developed in Matlab/Simulink for an n-phase induction motor. The simulation results are presented for 5, 6, 7, 9 and 12 phase induction motor under varying load conditions. Transient response of the multi-phase induction motors are given for different number of phases. Fault tolerant feature is also analyzed for 5-phase induction motor drive.

Keywords: d-q model, dynamic Response, fault tolerant feature, Matlab/Simulink, multi-phase induction motor, transient response.

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Authors: Jaharah A. Ghani, Muhammad Rizal, Ahmad Sayuti, Mohd Zaki Nuawi, Mohd Nizam Ab. Rahman, Che Hassan Che Haron

Abstract:

This study presents a new method for detecting the cutting tool wear based on the measured cutting force signals using the regression model and I-kaz method. The detection of tool wear was done automatically using the in-house developed regression model and 3D graphic presentation of I-kaz 3D coefficient during machining process. The machining tests were carried out on a CNC turning machine Colchester Master Tornado T4 in dry cutting condition, and Kistler 9255B dynamometer was used to measure the cutting force signals, which then stored and displayed in the DasyLab software. The progression of the cutting tool flank wear land (VB) was indicated by the amount of the cutting force generated. Later, the I-kaz was used to analyze all the cutting force signals from beginning of the cut until the rejection stage of the cutting tool. Results of the IKaz analysis were represented by various characteristic of I-kaz 3D coefficient and 3D graphic presentation. The I-kaz 3D coefficient number decreases when the tool wear increases. This method can be used for real time tool wear monitoring.

Keywords: mathematical model, I-kaz method, tool wear

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Authors: Úrsula B. Ferraz, Paulo F. Seixas, Webber E. Aguiar

Abstract:

This paper presents a dynamic model for mechanical loads of an electric drive, including angular misalignment and including load unbalance. The misalignment model represents the effects of the universal joint between the motor and the mechanical load. Simulation results are presented for an induction motor driving a mechanical load with angular misalignment for both flexible and rigid coupling. The models presented are very useful in the study of mechanical fault detection in induction motors, using mechanical and electrical signals already available in a drive system, such as speed, torque and stator currents.

Keywords: Angular misalignment, fault modeling, unbalance, universal joint.

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Authors: Abd Elrahman Elgamala, N. Darwish, I. Bondouk, Sh. Hamada

Abstract:

Available experimental angular distributions for ⁶Li elastically scattered from ¹⁶O nucleus in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV are investigated and reanalyzed using optical model of the conventional phenomenological potential and also using double folding optical model of different interaction models: DDM3Y1, CDM3Y1, CDM3Y2, and CDM3Y3. All the involved models of interaction are of M3Y Paris except DDM3Y1 which is of M3Y Reid and the main difference between them lies in the different values for the parameters of the incorporated density distribution function F(ρ). We have extracted the renormalization factor N_R for ⁶Li+¹⁶O nuclear system in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV using the aforementioned interaction models.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model, folding potential, density distribution.

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Authors: Aicha Rima Cheniti, Hatem Besbes, Joseph Haggege, Christophe Sintes

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a drift flux mixture model of the blood flow. The mixture consists of gas phase which is carbon dioxide and liquid phase which is an aqueous carbon dioxide solution. This model was used to determine the distributions of the mixture velocity, the mixture pressure, and the carbon dioxide pressure. These theoretical data are used to determine a measurement method of mean gas pressure through the determination of radial velocity distribution. This method can be applicable in experimental domain.

Keywords: Mean carbon dioxide pressure, mean mixture pressure, mixture velocity, radial velocity.

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Authors: C. Iraklis, G. Evmiridis, A. Iraklis

Abstract:

Renewable energy sources and distributed power generation units already have an important role in electrical power generation. A mixture of different technologies penetrating the electrical grid, adds complexity in the management of distribution networks. High penetration of distributed power generation units creates node over-voltages, huge power losses, unreliable power management, reverse power flow and congestion. This paper presents an optimization algorithm capable of reducing congestion and power losses, both described as a function of weighted sum. Two factors that describe congestion are being proposed. An upgraded selective particle swarm optimization algorithm (SPSO) is used as a solution tool focusing on the technique of network reconfiguration. The upgraded SPSO algorithm is achieved with the addition of a heuristic algorithm specializing in reduction of power losses, with several scenarios being tested. Results show significant improvement in minimization of losses and congestion while achieving very small calculation times.

Keywords: Congestion, distribution networks, loss reduction, particle swarm optimization, smart grid.

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Authors: M. Adeel

Abstract:

The damage tolerance behavior of integrally and conventional stiffened panel is investigated based on the fracture mechanics and finite element analysis. The load bearing capability and crack growth characteristic of both types of the stiffened panels having same configuration subjected to distributed tensile load is examined in this paper. A fourteen-stringer stiffened panel is analyzed for a central skin crack propagating towards the adjacent stringers. Stress intensity factors and fatigue crack propagation rates of both types of the stiffened panels are then compared. The analysis results show that integral stiffening causes higher stress intensity factor than conventional stiffened panel as the crack tip passes through the stringer and the integrally stiffened panel has less load bearing capability than the riveted stiffened panel.

Keywords: Conventional Stiffened Structure, Damage Tolerance, Finite Element Analysis, Integrally Stiffened Structure, Stress Intensity Factor.

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Authors: G. B. Hong, H. W. Chen

Abstract:

Liquid-Liquid Equilibrium (LLE) data are measured for the ternary mixtures of water + 1-butanol + butyl acetate and quaternary mixtures of water + 1-butanol + butyl acetate + glycerol at atmospheric pressure at 313.15 K. In addition, isothermal vapor–liquid–liquid equilibrium (VLLE) data are determined experimentally at 333.15 K. The region of heterogeneity is found to increase as the hydrophilic agent (glycerol) is introduced into the aqueous mixtures. The experimental data are correlated with the NRTL model. The predicted results from the solution model with the model parameters determined from the constituent binaries are also compared with the experimental values.

Keywords: LLE, VLLE, hydrophilic agent, NRTL.

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Authors: Izaz Ahmad, Farhatullah, Shahbaz Ali, Farhad Ali, Faiza, Hazrat Junaid, Farhan Zaid

Abstract:

Current trends in remote health monitoring to monetize on the Internet of Things applications have been raised in efficient and interference free communications in Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN) scenario. Co-existence interference in WBANs have aggravates the over-congested radio bands, thereby requiring efficient Carrier Sense Multiple Access with Collision Avoidance (CSMA/CA) strategies and improve interference management. Existing solutions utilize simplistic heuristics to approach interference problems. The scope of this research article is to investigate reinforcement learning for efficient interference management under co-existing scenarios with an emphasis on homogenous interferences. The aim of this paper is to suggest a smart CSMA/CA mechanism based on reinforcement learning called QIM-MAC that effectively uses sense slots with minimal interference. Simulation results are analyzed based on scenarios which show that the proposed approach maximized Average Network Throughput and Packet Delivery Ratio and minimized Packet Loss Ratio, Energy Consumption and Average Delay.

Keywords: WBAN, IEEE 802.15.4 Standard, CAP Super-frame, Q-Learning.

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Authors: Mikhail Gritskevich, Sebastian Hohenstein

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of several modern Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for prediction of C3X vane film cooling at various injection regimes. Three models are considered, namely the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model, the modification of the SST model accounting for the streamlines curvature (SST-CC), and the Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (EARSM). It is shown that all the considered models face with a problem in prediction of the adiabatic effectiveness in the vicinity of the cooling holes; however, accounting for the Reynolds stress anisotropy within the EARSM model noticeably increases the solution accuracy. On the other hand, further downstream all the models provide a reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the adiabatic effectiveness and among the considered models the most accurate results are obtained with the use EARMS.

Keywords: Discrete holes film cooling, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes, Reynolds stress tensor anisotropy, turbulent heat transfer.

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Authors: Sudhakar Tripathi, R. B. Mishra

Abstract:

In this paper, the cable model of dendrites have been considered. The dendrites are cylindrical cables of various segments having variable length and reducing radius from start point at synapse and end points. For a particular event signal being received by a neuron in response only some dendrite are active at a particular instance. Initial current signals with different current flows in dendrite are assumed. Due to overlapping and coupling of active dendrite, they induce currents in the dendrite segments of each other at a particular instance. But how these currents are induced in the various segments of active dendrites due to coupling between these dendrites, It is not presented in the literature. Here the paper presents a model for induced currents in active dendrite segments due to mutual coupling at the starting instance of an activity in dendrite. The model is as discussed further.

Keywords: Currents, dendrites, induction, simulation.

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Authors: Z. Olczykowski

Abstract:

The paper presents the impact of work on the electric arc furnace. Arc equipment is one of the largest receivers powered by the power system. Electric arc disturbances arising during melting process occurring in these furnaces are the cause of an abrupt change of the passive power of furnaces. Currents drawn by these devices undergo an abrupt change, which in turn cause voltage fluctuations and light flicker. The quantitative evaluation of the voltage fluctuations is now the basic criterion of assessment of an influence of unquiet receiver on the supplying net. The paper presents the method of determination of range of voltage fluctuations and light flicker at parallel operation of arc devices. The results of measurements of voltage fluctuations and light flicker indicators recorded in power supply networks of steelworks were presented, with different number of parallel arc devices. Measurements of energy quality parameters were aimed at verifying the proposed method in practice. It was also analyzed changes in other parameters of electricity: the content of higher harmonics, asymmetry, voltage dips.

Keywords: Power quality, arc furnaces, propagation of voltage fluctuations.

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Authors: P. V. Pramila, V. Mahesh

Abstract:

Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients resulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF25, PEF, FEF25-75, FEF50 and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects) with the aforementioned input features. It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, as well as yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV1, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Pulmonary Function Test, Random Forest.

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Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

Abstract:

The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFD_avg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

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Authors: Hasan.O. Farahneh, Ayman A. Issa

Abstract:

Software development is moving towards agility with use cases and scenarios being used for requirements stories. Estimates of software costs are becoming even more important than before as effects of delays is much larger in successive short releases context of agile development. Thus, this paper reports on the development of new linear use case based software cost estimation model applicable in the very early stages of software development being based on simple metric. Evaluation showed that accuracy of estimates varies between 43% and 55% of actual effort of historical test projects. These results outperformed those of wellknown models when applied in the same context. Further work is being carried out to improve the performance of the proposed model when considering the effect of non-functional requirements.

Keywords: Metrics, Software Cost Estimation, Use Cases

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement, Kriging, probability-based damage detection, probability of damage existence, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification.

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