Search results for: Hazard identification

Authors: Kulin Dave, Kapil Mohan

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Earthquakes are considered to be the most destructive rapid-onset disasters human beings are exposed to. The amount of loss it brings in is sufficient to take careful considerations for designing of structures and facilities. Seismic Hazard Analysis is one such tool which can be used for earthquake resistant design. Ground Response Analysis is one of the most crucial and decisive steps for seismic hazard analysis. Rapar district of Kutch, Gujarat falls in Zone 5 of earthquake zone map of India and thus has high seismicity because of which it is selected for analysis. In total 8 bore-log data were studied at different locations in and around Rapar district. Different soil engineering properties were analyzed and relevant empirical correlations were used to calculate maximum shear modulus (Gmax) and shear wave velocity (Vs) for the soil layers. The soil was modeled using Pressure-Dependent Modified Kodner Zelasko (MKZ) model and the reference curve used for fitting was Seed and Idriss (1970) for sand and Darendeli (2001) for clay. Both Equivalent linear (EL), as well as Non-linear (NL) ground response analysis, has been carried out with Masing Hysteretic Re/Unloading formulation for comparison. Commercially available DEEPSOIL v. 7.0 software is used for this analysis. In this study an attempt is made to quantify ground response regarding generated acceleration time-history at top of the soil column, Response spectra calculation at 5 % damping and Fourier amplitude spectrum calculation. Moreover, the variation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Maximum Displacement, Maximum Strain (in %), Maximum Stress Ratio, Mobilized Shear Stress with depth is also calculated. From the study, PGA values estimated in rocky strata are nearly same as bedrock motion and marginal amplification is observed in sandy silt and silty clays by both analyses. The NL analysis gives conservative results of maximum displacement as compared to EL analysis. Maximum strain predicted by both studies is very close to each other. And overall NL analysis is more efficient and realistic because it follows the actual hyperbolic stress-strain relationship, considers stiffness degradation and mobilizes stresses generated due to pore water pressure.

Keywords: DEEPSOIL v 7.0, Ground Response Analysis, Pressure-Dependent Modified KodnerZelasko (MKZ) model, Response Spectra, Shear wave velocity.

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Authors: K. Vallianou, T. Alexopoulos, V. Plaka, M. K. Seleventi, V. Skanavis, C. Skanavis

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The present research addresses the role of place attachment and emotions in community resiliency and recovery within the context of a disaster. Natural disasters represent a disruption in the normal functioning of a community, leading to a general feeling of disorientation. This study draws on the trauma caused by a natural hazard such as a forest fire. The changes of the sense of togetherness are being assessed. Finally this research determines how the place attachment of the inhabitants was affected during the reorientation process of the community. The case study area is Mati, a small coastal town in eastern Attica, Greece. The fire broke out on July 23^rd, 2018. A quantitative research was conducted through questionnaires via phone interviews, one year after the disaster, to address community resiliency in the long-run. The sample was composed of 159 participants from the rural community of Mati plus 120 coming from Skyros Island that was used as a control group. Inhabitants were prompted to answer items gauging their emotions related to the event, group identification and emotional significance of their community, and place attachment before and a year after the fire took place. Importantly, the community recovery and reorientation were examined within the context of a relative absence of government backing and official support. Emotions related to the event were aggregated into 4 clusters related to: activation/vigilance, distress/disorientation, indignation, and helplessness. The findings revealed a decrease in the level of place attachment in the impacted area of Mati as compared to the control group of Skyros Island. Importantly, initial distress caused by the fire prompted the residents to identify more with their community and to report more positive feelings toward their community. Moreover, a mediation analysis indicated that the positive effect of community cohesion on place attachment one year after the disaster was mediated by the positive feelings toward the community. Finally, place attachment contributes to enhanced optimism and a more positive perspective concerning Mati’s future prospects. Despite an insufficient state support to this affected area, the findings suggest an important role of emotions and place attachment during the process of recovery. Implications concerning the role of emotions and social dynamics in meshing place attachment during the disaster recovery process as well as community resiliency are discussed.

Keywords: Community resilience, natural disasters, place attachment, wildfire.

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Authors: A. Malakahmad, S.M. Zain, N.E. Ahmad Basri, S. R. Mohamed Kutty, M. H. Isa

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Anaerobic digestion process is one of the alternative methods to convert organic waste into methane gas which is a fuel and energy source. Activities of various kinds of microorganisms are the main factor for anaerobic digestion which produces methane gas. Therefore, in this study a modified Anaerobic Baffled Reactor (ABR) with working volume of 50 liters was designed to identify the microorganisms through biogas production. The mixture of 75% kitchen waste and 25% sewage sludge was used as substrate. Observations on microorganisms in the ABR showed that there exists a small amount of protozoa (5%) and fungi (2%) in the system, but almost 93% of the microorganism population consists of bacteria. It is definitely clear that bacteria are responsible for anaerobic biodegradation of kitchen waste. Results show that in the acidification zone of the ABR (front compartments of reactor) fast growing bacteria capable of growth at high substrate levels and reduced pH was dominant. A shift to slower growing scavenging bacteria that grow better at higher pH was occurring towards the end of the reactor. Due to the ability of activity in acetate environment the percentages of Methanococcus, Methanosarcina and Methanotrix were higher than other kinds of methane former in the system.

Keywords: Anaerobic microorganism identification, Kitchenwaste, Biogas.

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Authors: Imran Ahmed, Muhammad Islam, Syed Inayat Ali Shah, Awais Adnan

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The identification and classification of weeds are of major technical and economical importance in the agricultural industry. To automate these activities, like in shape, color and texture, weed control system is feasible. The goal of this paper is to build a real-time, machine vision weed control system that can detect weed locations. In order to accomplish this objective, a real-time robotic system is developed to identify and locate outdoor plants using machine vision technology and pattern recognition. The algorithm is developed to classify images into broad and narrow class for real-time selective herbicide application. The developed algorithm has been tested on weeds at various locations, which have shown that the algorithm to be very effectiveness in weed identification. Further the results show a very reliable performance on weeds under varying field conditions. The analysis of the results shows over 90 percent classification accuracy over 140 sample images (broad and narrow) with 70 samples from each category of weeds.

Keywords: Weed detection, Image Processing, real-timerecognition, Standard Deviation.

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Authors: Shima Nabinejad, Holger Schüttrumpf

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Farmers who are living in flood-prone areas such as coasts are exposed to storm surges increased due to climate change. Crop cultivation is the most important economic activity of farmers, and in the time of flooding, agricultural lands are subject to inundation. Additionally, overflow saline water causes more severe damage outcomes than riverine flooding. Agricultural crops are more vulnerable to salinity than other land uses for which the economic damages may continue for a number of years even after flooding and affect farmers’ decision-making for the following year. Therefore, it is essential to assess what extent the agricultural areas are flooded and how much the associated flood damage to each individual farmer is. To address these questions, we integrated farmers’ decision-making at farm-scale with flood risk management. The integrated model includes identification of hazard scenarios, failure analysis of structural measures, derivation of hydraulic parameters for the inundated areas and analysis of the economic damages experienced by each farmer. The present study has two aims; firstly, it attempts to investigate the flooded cropland and potential crop damages for the whole area. Secondly, it compares them among farmers’ field for three flood scenarios, which differ in breach locations of the flood protection structure. To achieve its goal, the spatial distribution of fields and cultivated crops of farmers were fed into the flood risk model, and a 100-year storm surge hydrograph was selected as the flood event. The study area was Pellworm Island that is located in the German Wadden Sea National Park and surrounded by North Sea. Due to high salt content in seawater of North Sea, crops cultivated in the agricultural areas of Pellworm Island are 100% destroyed by storm surges which were taken into account in developing of depth-damage curve for analysis of consequences. As a result, inundated croplands and economic damages to crops were estimated in the whole Island which was further compared for six selected farmers under three flood scenarios. The results demonstrate the significance and the flexibility of the proposed model in flood risk assessment of flood-prone areas by integrating flood risk management and decision-making.

Keywords: Crop damages, flood risk analysis, individual farmer, inundated cropland, Pellworm Island, storm surges.

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Authors: Soheil Sobhanardakani, Seyed Vali Hosseini, Lima Tayebi

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The presence of heavy metals in the environment could constitute a hazard to food security and public health. These can be accumulated in aquatic animals such as fish. Samples of four popular brands of canned fish in the Iranian market (yellowfin tuna, common Kilka, Kawakawa and longtail tuna) were analyzed for level of Cr after wet digestion with acids using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The mean concentrations for Cr in the different brands were: 2.57, 3.24, 3.16 and 1.65 μg/g for brands A, B, C and D respectively. Significant differences were observed in the Cr levels between all of the different brands of canned fish evaluated in this study. The Cr concentrations for the varieties of canned fishes were generally within the FAO/WHO, U.S. FDA and U.S. EPA recommended limits for fish.

Keywords: Heavy metals, essential metals, canned fish, food security.

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Authors: Banashree N. P., Andhe Dharani, R. Vasanta, P. S. Satyanarayana

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The applications on numbers are across-the-board that there is much scope for study. The chic of writing numbers is diverse and comes in a variety of form, size and fonts. Identification of Indian languages scripts is challenging problems. In Optical Character Recognition [OCR], machine printed or handwritten characters/numerals are recognized. There are plentiful approaches that deal with problem of detection of numerals/character depending on the sort of feature extracted and different way of extracting them. This paper proposes a recognition scheme for handwritten Hindi (devnagiri) numerals; most admired one in Indian subcontinent our work focused on a technique in feature extraction i.e. Local-based approach, a method using 16-segment display concept, which is extracted from halftoned images & Binary images of isolated numerals. These feature vectors are fed to neural classifier model that has been trained to recognize a Hindi numeral. The archetype of system has been tested on varieties of image of numerals. Experimentation result shows that recognition rate of halftoned images is 98 % compared to binary images (95%).

Keywords: OCR, Halftoning, Neural classifier, 16-segmentdisplay concept.

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Authors: A. Shukla, A. Tarsauliya, R. Tiwari, S. Sharma

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Cancer classification to their corresponding cohorts has been key area of research in bioinformatics aiming better prognosis of the disease. High dimensionality of gene data has been makes it a complex task and requires significance data identification technique in order to reducing the dimensionality and identification of significant information. In this paper, we have proposed a novel approach for classification of oral cancer into metastasis positive and negative patients. We have used significance analysis of microarrays (SAM) for identifying significant genes which constitutes gene signature. 3 different gene signatures were identified using SAM from 3 different combination of training datasets and their classification accuracy was calculated on corresponding testing datasets using k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN), Fuzzy C-Means Clustering (FCM), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN). A final gene signature of only 9 genes was obtained from above 3 individual gene signatures. 9 gene signature-s classification capability was compared using same classifiers on same testing datasets. Results obtained from experimentation shows that 9 gene signature classified all samples in testing dataset accurately while individual genes could not classify all accurately.

Keywords: Cancer, Gene Signature, SAM, Classification.

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Authors: Mohammad AlHamaydeh, Sherif Yehia, Nader Aly, Ammar Douba, Layane Hamzeh

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Four design alternatives for lateral force-resisting systems of tall buildings in Dubai, UAE are presented. Quantitative comparisons between the different designs are also made. This paper is intended to provide different feasible lateral systems to be used in Dubai in light of the available seismic hazard studies of the UAE. The different lateral systems are chosen in conformance with the International Building Code (IBC). Moreover, the expected behavior of each system is highlighted and light is shed on some of the cost implications associated with lateral system selection.

Keywords: Concrete, Dual, Dubai UAE Seismicity, Special Moment-Resisting Frames (SMRF), Special Shear Wall, Steel

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Authors: Marina Franulovic, Robert Basan, Bozidar Krizan

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Constitutive modeling of material behavior is becoming increasingly important in prediction of possible failures in highly loaded engineering components, and consequently, optimization of their design. In order to account for large number of phenomena that occur in the material during operation, such as kinematic hardening effect in low cycle fatigue behavior of steels, complex nonlinear material models are used ever more frequently, despite of the complexity of determination of their parameters. As a method for the determination of these parameters, genetic algorithm is good choice because of its capability to provide very good approximation of the solution in systems with large number of unknown variables. For the application of genetic algorithm to parameter identification, inverse analysis must be primarily defined. It is used as a tool to fine-tune calculated stress-strain values with experimental ones. In order to choose proper objective function for inverse analysis among already existent and newly developed functions, the research is performed to investigate its influence on material behavior modeling.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, kinematic hardening, material model, objective function

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Authors: S. Iffat, B. Bose

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Concrete as a construction material is versatile because it displays high degree of fire-resistance. Concrete’s inherent ability to combat one of the most devastating disaster that a structure can endure in its lifetime, can be attributed to its constituent materials which make it inert and have relatively poor thermal conductivity. However, concrete structures must be designed for fire effects. Structural components should be able to withstand dead and live loads without undergoing collapse. The properties of high-strength concrete must be weighed against concerns about its fire resistance and susceptibility to spalling at elevated temperatures. In this paper, the causes, effects and some remedy of deterioration in concrete due to fire hazard will be discussed. Some cost effective solutions to produce a fire resistant concrete will be conversed through this paper.

Keywords: Concrete, fire, spalling, temperature, compressive strength, density.

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: Manufacturing industries, production output, risk, risk management, SMEs.

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Authors: Yung-Ting Chang, Chung-You Tsai, Yu-Chuan Li

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Nosocomial (i.e., hospital-acquired) infections (NI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in hospitals. NI rate is higher in intensive care units (ICU) than in the general ward due to patients with severe symptoms, poor immunity, and accepted many invasive therapies. Contact behaviors between health caregivers and patients is one of the infect factors. It is difficult to obtain complete contact records by traditional method of retrospective analysis of medical records. This paper establishes a contact history inferential model (CHIM) intended to extend the use of Proximity Sensing of rapid frequency identification (RFID) technology to transferring all proximity events between health caregivers and patients into clinical events (close-in events, contact events and invasive events).The results of the study indicated that the CHIM can infer proximity care activities into close-in events and contact events. The infection control team could redesign and build optimal workflow in the ICU according to the patient-specific contact history which provided by our automatic tracing system.

Keywords: Active Radio Frequency Identification, Intensive Care Unit, Nosocomial Infections

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Authors: Giovanni Luca Masala

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Pattern recognition is the research area of Artificial Intelligence that studies the operation and design of systems that recognize patterns in the data. Important application areas are image analysis, character recognition, fingerprint classification, speech analysis, DNA sequence identification, man and machine diagnostics, person identification and industrial inspection. The interest in improving the classification systems of data analysis is independent from the context of applications. In fact, in many studies it is often the case to have to recognize and to distinguish groups of various objects, which requires the need for valid instruments capable to perform this task. The objective of this article is to show several methodologies of Artificial Intelligence for data classification applied to biomedical patterns. In particular, this work deals with the realization of a Computer-Aided Detection system (CADe) that is able to assist the radiologist in identifying types of mammary tumor lesions. As an additional biomedical application of the classification systems, we present a study conducted on blood samples which shows how these methods may help to distinguish between carriers of Thalassemia (or Mediterranean Anaemia) and healthy subjects.

Keywords: Computer Aided Detection, mammary tumor, pattern recognition, dissimilarity

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Authors: Rachid.Dehini, Abdesselam.Bassou, Brahim.Ferdi

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Active Power Filters (APFs) are today the most widely used systems to eliminate harmonics compensate power factor and correct unbalanced problems in industrial power plants. We propose to improve the performances of conventional APFs by using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for harmonics estimation. This new method combines both the strategies for extracting the three-phase reference currents for active power filters and DC link voltage control method. The ANNs learning capabilities to adaptively choose the power system parameters for both to compute the reference currents and to recharge the capacitor value requested by VDC voltage in order to ensure suitable transit of powers to supply the inverter. To investigate the performance of this identification method, the study has been accomplished using simulation with the MATLAB Simulink Power System Toolbox. The simulation study results of the new (SAPF) identification technique compared to other similar methods are found quite satisfactory by assuring good filtering characteristics and high system stability.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), p-q theory, (SAPF), Harmonics, Total Harmonic Distortion.

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Authors: Giovanni Luca Masala

Abstract:

Pattern recognition is the research area of Artificial Intelligence that studies the operation and design of systems that recognize patterns in the data. Important application areas are image analysis, character recognition, fingerprint classification, speech analysis, DNA sequence identification, man and machine diagnostics, person identification and industrial inspection. The interest in improving the classification systems of data analysis is independent from the context of applications. In fact, in many studies it is often the case to have to recognize and to distinguish groups of various objects, which requires the need for valid instruments capable to perform this task. The objective of this article is to show several methodologies of Artificial Intelligence for data classification applied to biomedical patterns. In particular, this work deals with the realization of a Computer-Aided Detection system (CADe) that is able to assist the radiologist in identifying types of mammary tumor lesions. As an additional biomedical application of the classification systems, we present a study conducted on blood samples which shows how these methods may help to distinguish between carriers of Thalassemia (or Mediterranean Anaemia) and healthy subjects.

Keywords: Computer Aided Detection, mammary tumor, pattern recognition, thalassemia.

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Authors: M.K. Bhuyan, Aragala Jagan.

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Current image-based individual human recognition methods, such as fingerprints, face, or iris biometric modalities generally require a cooperative subject, views from certain aspects, and physical contact or close proximity. These methods cannot reliably recognize non-cooperating individuals at a distance in the real world under changing environmental conditions. Gait, which concerns recognizing individuals by the way they walk, is a relatively new biometric without these disadvantages. The inherent gait characteristic of an individual makes it irreplaceable and useful in visual surveillance. In this paper, an efficient gait recognition system for human identification by extracting two features namely width vector of the binary silhouette and the MPEG-7-based region-based shape descriptors is proposed. In the proposed method, foreground objects i.e., human and other moving objects are extracted by estimating background information by a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and subsequently, median filtering operation is performed for removing noises in the background subtracted image. A moving target classification algorithm is used to separate human being (i.e., pedestrian) from other foreground objects (viz., vehicles). Shape and boundary information is used in the moving target classification algorithm. Subsequently, width vector of the outer contour of binary silhouette and the MPEG-7 Angular Radial Transform coefficients are taken as the feature vector. Next, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to the selected feature vector to reduce its dimensionality. These extracted feature vectors are used to train an Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for identification of some individuals. The proposed system is evaluated using some gait sequences and the experimental results show the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Gait Recognition, Gaussian Mixture Model, PrincipalComponent Analysis, MPEG-7 Angular Radial Transform.

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Authors: Agus Harjoko, Sri Hartati, Henry Dwiyasa

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There have been numerous implementations of security system using biometric, especially for identification and verification cases. An example of pattern used in biometric is the iris pattern in human eye. The iris pattern is considered unique for each person. The use of iris pattern poses problems in encoding the human iris. In this research, an efficient iris recognition method is proposed. In the proposed method the iris segmentation is based on the observation that the pupil has lower intensity than the iris, and the iris has lower intensity than the sclera. By detecting the boundary between the pupil and the iris and the boundary between the iris and the sclera, the iris area can be separated from pupil and sclera. A step is taken to reduce the effect of eyelashes and specular reflection of pupil. Then the four levels Coiflet wavelet transform is applied to the extracted iris image. The modified Hamming distance is employed to measure the similarity between two irises. This research yields the identification success rate of 84.25% for the CASIA version 1.0 database. The method gives an accuracy of 77.78% for the left eyes of MMU 1 database and 86.67% for the right eyes. The time required for the encoding process, from the segmentation until the iris code is generated, is 0.7096 seconds. These results show that the accuracy and speed of the method is better than many other methods.

Keywords: Biometric, iris recognition, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Sandipan Chakroborty, Goutam Saha

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A state of the art Speaker Identification (SI) system requires a robust feature extraction unit followed by a speaker modeling scheme for generalized representation of these features. Over the years, Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) modeled on the human auditory system has been used as a standard acoustic feature set for speech related applications. On a recent contribution by authors, it has been shown that the Inverted Mel- Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (IMFCC) is useful feature set for SI, which contains complementary information present in high frequency region. This paper introduces the Gaussian shaped filter (GF) while calculating MFCC and IMFCC in place of typical triangular shaped bins. The objective is to introduce a higher amount of correlation between subband outputs. The performances of both MFCC & IMFCC improve with GF over conventional triangular filter (TF) based implementation, individually as well as in combination. With GMM as speaker modeling paradigm, the performances of proposed GF based MFCC and IMFCC in individual and fused mode have been verified in two standard databases YOHO, (Microphone Speech) and POLYCOST (Telephone Speech) each of which has more than 130 speakers.

Keywords: Gaussian Filter, Triangular Filter, Subbands, Correlation, MFCC, IMFCC, GMM.

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Authors: A. I. Alajtal, H. G. M. Edwards, M. A. Elbagermi

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Raman spectroscopy is currently a part of the instrumentation suite of the ESA ExoMars mission for the remote detection of life signatures in the Martian surface and subsurface. Terrestrial analogues of Martian sites have been identified and the biogeological modifications incurred as a result of extremophilic activity have been studied. Analytical instrumentation protocols for the unequivocal detection of biomarkers in suitable geological matrices are critical for future unmanned explorations, including the forthcoming ESA ExoMars mission to search for life on Mars scheduled for 2018 and Raman spectroscopy is currently a part of the Pasteur instrumentation suite of this mission. Here, Raman spectroscopy using 785nm excitation was evaluated for determining various concentrations of beta-carotene in admixture with polyaromatic hydrocarbons and usnic acid have been investigated by Raman microspectrometry to determine the lowest levels detectable in simulation of their potential identification remotely in geobiological conditions in Martian scenarios. Information from this study will be important for the development of a miniaturized Raman instrument for targetting Martian sites where the biosignatures of relict or extant life could remain in the geological record.

Keywords: Raman spectroscopy, Mars-analog, Beta-carotene, PAHs.

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Authors: J. Bernasovská, R. Lohajová Behulová, E. Petrejčiková, I. Boroňová, I. Bernasovský

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Y chromosome microdeletions are the most common genetic cause of male infertility and screening for these microdeletions in azoospermic or severely oligospermic men is now standard practice. Analysis of the Y chromosome in men with azoospermia or severe oligozoospermia has resulted in the identification of three regions in the euchromatic part of the long arm of the human Y chromosome (Yq11) that are frequently deleted in men with otherwise unexplained spermatogenic failure. PCR analysis of microdeletions in the AZFa, AZFb and AZFc regions of the human Y chromosome is an important screening tool. The aim of this study was to analyse the type of microdeletions in men with fertility disorders in Slovakia. We evaluated 227 patients with azoospermia and with normal karyotype. All patient samples were analyzed cytogenetically. For PCR amplification of sequence-tagged sites (STS) of the AZFa, AZFb and AZFc regions of the Y chromosome was used Devyser AZF set. Fluorescently labeled primers for all markers in one multiplex PCR reaction were used and for automated visualization and identification of the STS markers we used genetic analyzer ABi 3500xl (Life Technologies). We reported 13 cases of deletions in the AZF region 5,73%. Particular types of deletions were recorded in each region AZFa,b,c .The presence of microdeletions in the AZFc region was the most frequent. The study confirmed that percentage of microdeletions in the AZF region is low in Slovak azoospermic patients, but important from a prognostic view.

Keywords: AZF, male infertility, microdeletions, Y chromosome.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, C. Ardil, D. D. Askerov, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

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In this paper is shown that the probability-statistic methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation gas turbine engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence is considered the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods. Training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. Thus for GTE technical condition more adequate model making are analysed dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients' changes. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows to draw conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. For checking of models adequacy is considered the Fuzzy Multiple Correlation Coefficient of Fuzzy Multiple Regression. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-bystage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine temperature condition was made.

Keywords: Gas turbine engines, neural networks, fuzzy logic, fuzzy statistics.

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Authors: Saeed Safari Dolatabad, Rajab Choukan

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Selection of maize (Zea mays) hybrids with wide adaptability across diverse farming environments is important, prior to recommending them to achieve a high rate of hybrid adoption. Grain yield of 14 maize hybrids, tested in a randomized completeblock design with four replicates across 22 environments in Iran, was analyzed using site regression (SREG) stability model. The biplot technique facilitates a visual evaluation of superior genotypes, which is useful for cultivar recommendation and mega-environment identification. The objectives of this study were (i) identification of suitable hybrids with both high mean performance and high stability (ii) to determine mega-environments for maize production in Iran. Biplot analysis identifies two mega-environments in this study. The first mega-environments included KRM, KSH, MGN, DZF A, KRJ, DRB, DZF B, SHZ B, and KHM, where G10 hybrid was the best performing hybrid. The second mega-environment included ESF B, ESF A, and SHZ A, where G4 hybrid was the best hybrid. According to the ideal-hybrid biplot, G10 hybrid was better than all other hybrids, followed by the G1 and G3 hybrids. These hybrids were identified as best hybrids that have high grain yield and high yield stability. GGE biplot analysis provided a framework for identifying the target testing locations that discriminates genotypes that are high yielding and stable.

Keywords: Zea mays L, GGE biplot, Multi-environment trials, Yield stability.

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Authors: Jatinderkumar R. Saini, Apurva A. Desai

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e-mail has become an important means of electronic communication but the viability of its usage is marred by Unsolicited Bulk e-mail (UBE) messages. UBE consists of many types like pornographic, virus infected and 'cry-for-help' messages as well as fake and fraudulent offers for jobs, winnings and medicines. UBE poses technical and socio-economic challenges to usage of e-mails. To meet this challenge and combat this menace, we need to understand UBE. Towards this end, the current paper presents a content-based textual analysis of nearly 3000 winnings-announcing UBE. Technically, this is an application of Text Parsing and Tokenization for an un-structured textual document and we approach it using Bag Of Words (BOW) and Vector Space Document Model techniques. We have attempted to identify the most frequently occurring lexis in the winnings-announcing UBE documents. The analysis of such top 100 lexis is also presented. We exhibit the relationship between occurrence of a word from the identified lexisset in the given UBE and the probability that the given UBE will be the one announcing fake winnings. To the best of our knowledge and survey of related literature, this is the first formal attempt for identification of most frequently occurring lexis in winningsannouncing UBE by its textual analysis. Finally, this is a sincere attempt to bring about alertness against and mitigate the threat of such luring but fake UBE.

Keywords: Lexis, Unsolicited Bulk e-mail (UBE), Vector SpaceDocument Model, Winnings, Lottery

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Authors: Olivia A. Wilson, Hannah E. Power, Murray Kendall

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Sydney Harbour is an iconic location with a dense population and low-lying development. On the east coast of Australia, facing the Pacific Ocean, it is exposed to several tsunamigenic trenches. This paper presents a component of the most detailed assessment of the potential for earthquake-generated tsunami impact on Sydney Harbour to date. Models in this study use dynamic tides to account for tide-tsunami interaction. Sydney Harbour’s tidal range is 1.5 m, and the spring tides from January 2015 that are used in the modelling for this study are close to the full tidal range. The tsunami wave trains modelled include hypothetical tsunami generated from earthquakes of magnitude 7.5, 8.0, 8.5, and 9.0 M_W from the Puysegur and New Hebrides trenches as well as representations of the historical 1960 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku events. All wave trains are modelled for the peak wave to coincide with both a low tide and a high tide. A single wave train, representing a 9.0 M_W earthquake at the Puysegur trench, is modelled for peak waves to coincide with every hour across a 12-hour tidal phase. Using the hydrodynamic model ANUGA, results are compared according to the impact parameters of inundation area, depth variation and current speeds. Results show that both maximum inundation area and depth variation are tide dependent. Maximum inundation area increases when coincident with a higher tide, however, hazardous inundation is only observed for the larger waves modelled: NH90high and P90high. The maximum and minimum depths are deeper on higher tides and shallower on lower tides. The difference between maximum and minimum depths varies across different tidal phases although the differences are slight. Maximum current speeds are shown to be a significant hazard for Sydney Harbour; however, they do not show consistent patterns according to tide-tsunami phasing. The maximum current speed hazard is shown to be greater in specific locations such as Spit Bridge, a narrow channel with extensive marine infrastructure. The results presented for Sydney Harbour are novel, and the conclusions are consistent with previous modelling efforts in the greater area. It is shown that tide must be a consideration for both tsunami modelling and emergency management planning. Modelling with peak tsunami waves coinciding with a high tide would be a conservative approach; however, it must be considered that maximum current speeds may be higher on other tides.

Keywords: Emergency management, Sydney, tide-tsunami interaction, tsunami impact.

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Authors: Masamitsu Chikaraishi, Mutsuto Kawahara

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This paper focuses on a technique for identifying the geological boundary of the ground strata in front of a tunnel excavation site using the first order adjoint method based on the optimal control theory. The geological boundary is defined as the boundary which is different layers of elastic modulus. At tunnel excavations, it is important to presume the ground situation ahead of the cutting face beforehand. Excavating into weak strata or fault fracture zones may cause extension of the construction work and human suffering. A theory for determining the geological boundary of the ground in a numerical manner is investigated, employing excavating blasts and its vibration waves as the observation references. According to the optimal control theory, the performance function described by the square sum of the residuals between computed and observed velocities is minimized. The boundary layer is determined by minimizing the performance function. The elastic analysis governed by the Navier equation is carried out, assuming the ground as an elastic body with linear viscous damping. To identify the boundary, the gradient of the performance function with respect to the geological boundary can be calculated using the adjoint equation. The weighed gradient method is effectively applied to the minimization algorithm. To solve the governing and adjoint equations, the Galerkin finite element method and the average acceleration method are employed for the spatial and temporal discretizations, respectively. Based on the method presented in this paper, the different boundary of three strata can be identified. For the numerical studies, the Suemune tunnel excavation site is employed. At first, the blasting force is identified in order to perform the accuracy improvement of analysis. We identify the geological boundary after the estimation of blasting force. With this identification procedure, the numerical analysis results which almost correspond with the observation data were provided.

Keywords: Parameter identification, finite element method, average acceleration method, first order adjoint equation method, weighted gradient method, geological boundary, navier equation, optimal control theory.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello, Ferdinando Montemari

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The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Flapping Dynamics, Flight Dynamics, System Identification, Tilt-Rotor Modeling and Simulation.

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Authors: Alexandru Epureanu, Virgil Teodor

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One of the main research directions in CAD/CAM machining area is the reducing of machining time. The feedrate scheduling is one of the advanced techniques that allows keeping constant the uncut chip area and as sequel to keep constant the main cutting force. They are two main ways for feedrate optimization. The first consists in the cutting force monitoring, which presumes to use complex equipment for the force measurement and after this, to set the feedrate regarding the cutting force variation. The second way is to optimize the feedrate by keeping constant the material removal rate regarding the cutting conditions. In this paper there is proposed a new approach using an extended database that replaces the system model. The feedrate scheduling is determined based on the identification of the reconfigurable machine tool, and the feed value determination regarding the uncut chip section area, the contact length between tool and blank and also regarding the geometrical roughness. The first stage consists in the blank and tool monitoring for the determination of actual profiles. The next stage is the determination of programmed tool path that allows obtaining the piece target profile. The graphic representation environment models the tool and blank regions and, after this, the tool model is positioned regarding the blank model according to the programmed tool path. For each of these positions the geometrical roughness value, the uncut chip area and the contact length between tool and blank are calculated. Each of these parameters are compared with the admissible values and according to the result the feed value is established. We can consider that this approach has the following advantages: in case of complex cutting processes the prediction of cutting force is possible; there is considered the real cutting profile which has deviations from the theoretical profile; the blank-tool contact length limitation is possible; it is possible to correct the programmed tool path so that the target profile can be obtained. Applying this method, there are obtained data sets which allow the feedrate scheduling so that the uncut chip area is constant and, as a result, the cutting force is constant, which allows to use more efficiently the machine tool and to obtain the reduction of machining time.

Keywords: Reconfigurable machine tool, system identification, uncut chip area, cutting conditions scheduling.

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Christina Koenig, Nico Schoen, Markus Wellensiek

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Identification and selection of appropriate product and manufacturing technologies are key factors for competitiveness and market success of technology-based companies. Therefore, many companies perform technology intelligence (TI) activities to ensure the identification of evolving technologies at the right time. Technology monitoring is one of the three base activities of TI, besides scanning and scouting. As the technological progress is accelerating, more and more technologies are being developed. Against the background of limited resources it is therefore necessary to focus TI activities. In this paper we propose a concept for defining appropriate search fields for technology monitoring. This limitation of search space leads to more concentrated monitoring activities. The concept will be introduced and demonstrated through an anonymized case study conducted within an industry project at the Fraunhofer Institute for Production Technology IPT. The described concept provides a customized monitoring approach, which is suitable for use in technology-oriented companies. It is shown in this paper that the definition of search fields and search tasks are suitable methods to define topics of interest and thus to align monitoring activities. Current as well as planned product, production and material technologies and existing skills, capabilities and resources form the basis for derivation of relevant search areas. To further improve the concept of technology monitoring the proposed concept should be extended during future research e.g. by the definition of relevant monitoring parameters.

Keywords: Monitoring radar, search field, technology intelligence, technology monitoring.

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