Search results for: Health Condition Modeling Tool

Authors: A. P. Joshi, H. V. Warrior, J. P. Panda

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This paper is a continuation of the work carried out by various turbulence modelers in Oceanography on the topic of oceanic turbulent mixing. It evaluates the evolution of ocean water temperature and salinity by the appropriate modeling of turbulent mixing utilizing proper prescription of eddy viscosity. Many modelers in past have suggested including terms like shear, buoyancy and vorticity to be the parameters that decide the slow pressure strain correlation. We add to it the fact that dissipation anisotropy also modifies the correlation through eddy viscosity parameterization. This recalibrates the established correlation constants slightly and gives improved results. This anisotropization of dissipation implies that the critical Richardson’s number increases much beyond unity (to 1.66) to accommodate enhanced mixing, as is seen in reality. The model is run for a couple of test cases in the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and the results are presented here.

Keywords: Anisotropy, GOTM, pressure-strain correlation, Richardson Critical number.

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Authors: Wei Yi Lim, M. Annamalai Arasu, M. Kumarasamy Raja, Minkyu Je

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In this paper, the design of wide-swing constant transconductance (g_m) bias circuit that generates bias voltage for low-noise amplifier (LNA) circuit design by using an off-chip resistor is demonstrated. The overall transconductance (G_m) generated by the constant g_m bias circuit is important to maintain the overall gain and noise figure of the LNA circuit. Therefore, investigation is performed to study the variation in G_m with process, temperature and supply voltage (PVT).  Temperature and supply voltage are swept from -10 °C to 85 °C and 1.425 V to 1.575 V respectively, while the process conditions are also varied to the extreme and the g_m variation is eventually concluded at between -3 % to 7 %. With the slight variation in the g_m value, through simulation, at worst condition of state SS, we are able to attain a conversion gain (S₂₁) variation of -3.10 % and a noise figure (NF) variation of 18.71 %. The whole constant g_m circuit draws approximately 100 µA from a 1.5V supply and is designed based on 0.13 µm CMOS process. 

Keywords: Transconductance, LNA, temperature, process.

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Authors: Fernando Miguel Campos, Fernando Jesus Aguiar, Pedro Campos

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A large amount of software products offer a wide range and number of features. This is called featuritis or creeping featurism and tends to rise with each release of the product. Feautiris often adds unnecessary complexity to software, leading to longer learning curves and overall confusing the users and degrading their experience. We take a look to a new design approach tendency that has been coming up, the so-called “What You Get is What You Need” concept that argues that products should be very focused, simple and with minimalistic interfaces in order to help users conduct their tasks in distraction-free ambiences. This isn’t as simple to implement as it might sound and the developers need to cut down features. Our contribution illustrates and evaluates this design method through a novel distraction-free diagramming tool named Delineato Pro for Mac OS X in which the user is confronted with an empty canvas when launching the software and where tools only show up when really needed.

Keywords: Diagramming, HCI, usability, user interface.

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Authors: Emma Dwi Ariyani, Dini Hadiani

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This article reports the descriptive analysis of self-compassion in polytechnic students. It has been long believed that self-compassion can improve students’ motivation in completing their studies. This research was conducted with the aim to see the degree of self-compassion in polytechnic students in Indonesia by using Neff's Self-Compassion Scale (short form) measurement tool consisting of 12 items. The research method used was descriptive study with survey technique on 255 students. The results showed that 78% of students had low self-compassion and 22% had high self-compassion. This revealed that polytechnic students still criticize themselves harshly, make a poor judgment and bad self-appraisal, and they also cannot accept their imperfection and consider it as a self-judgment. The students also tend to think that they are the only ones that experience failure and suffering. This can lead to a sense of isolation (self-isolation). Furthermore, the students are often too concerned with aspects that are not liked both in themselves and in life (over-identification). Improving the students’ level of self-compassion can be done by building an educational climate that not only criticizes the students but provides feedback as well. This should focus on the students’ real behavior rather than the students’ general character.

Keywords: Descriptive study, polytechnic students, Indonesia, self-compassion.

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Authors: Sachin Kumar, Vasilis Sotiris, Michael Pecht

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With increasing complexity in electronic systems there is a need for system level anomaly detection and fault isolation. Anomaly detection based on vector similarity to a training set is used in this paper through two approaches, one the preserves the original information, Mahalanobis Distance (MD), and the other that compresses the data into its principal components, Projection Pursuit Analysis. These methods have been used to detect deviations in system performance from normal operation and for critical parameter isolation in multivariate environments. The study evaluates the detection capability of each approach on a set of test data with known faults against a baseline set of data representative of such “healthy" systems.

Keywords: Mahalanobis distance, Principle components, Projection pursuit, Health assessment, Anomaly.

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Authors: M. A. M. El-Bendary, A. E. Abu El-Azm, N. A. El-Fishawy, F. Shawky, F. E. El-Samie

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With increasing utilization of the wireless devices in different fields such as medical devices and industrial fields, the paper presents a method for simplify the Bluetooth packets with throughput enhancing. The paper studies a vital issue in wireless communications, which is the throughput of data over wireless networks. In fact, the Bluetooth and ZigBee are a Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN). With taking these two systems competition consideration, the paper proposes different schemes for improve the throughput of Bluetooth network over a reliable channel. The proposition depends on the Channel Quality Driven Data Rate (CQDDR) rules, which determines the suitable packet in the transmission process according to the channel conditions. The proposed packet is studied over additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) and fading channels. The Experimental results reveal the capability of extension of the PL length by 8, 16, 24 bytes for classic and EDR packets, respectively. Also, the proposed method is suitable for the low throughput Bluetooth.

Keywords: Bluetooth, throughput, adaptive packets, EDRpackets, CQDDR, low latency. Channel condition

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Authors: Osama Mohamed Elrajubi, Idris El-Feghi, Mohamed Abu Baker Saghayer

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This paper describes an identification of specific shapes within binary images using the morphological Hit-or-Miss Transform (HMT). Hit-or-Miss transform is a general binary morphological operation that can be used in searching of particular patterns of foreground and background pixels in an image. It is actually a basic operation of binary morphology since almost all other binary morphological operators are derived from it. The input of this method is a binary image and a structuring element (a template which will be searched in a binary image) while the output is another binary image. In this paper a modification of Hit-or-Miss transform has been proposed. The accuracy of algorithm is adjusted according to the similarity of the template and the sought template. The implementation of this method has been done by C language. The algorithm has been tested on several images and the results have shown that this new method can be used for similar shape detection.

Keywords: Hit-or/and-Miss Operator/Transform, HMT, binary morphological operation, shape detection, binary images processing.

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Authors: T. Davitashvili, G. Gubelidze

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In this paper two mathematical models for definition of gas accidental escape localization in the gas pipelines are suggested. The first model was created for leak localization in the horizontal branched pipeline and second one for leak detection in inclined section of the main gas pipeline. The algorithm of leak localization in the branched pipeline did not demand on knowledge of corresponding initial hydraulic parameters at entrance and ending points of each sections of pipeline. For detection of the damaged section and then leak localization in this section special functions and equations have been constructed. Some results of calculations for compound pipelines having two, four and five sections are presented. Also a method and formula for the leak localization in the simple inclined section of the main gas pipeline are suggested. Some results of numerical calculations defining localization of gas escape for the inclined pipeline are presented.

Keywords: Branched and inclined gas pipelines, leak detection, mathematical modeling.

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Authors: Paraskevi Theodorou, Apostolos Meliones

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In the context of the development process of two assistive navigation mobile apps for blind and visually impaired people (BVI) an extensive qualitative analysis of the requirements of potential users has been conducted. The analysis was based on interviews with BVIs and aimed to elicit not only their needs with respect to autonomous navigation but also their preferences on specific features of the apps under development. The elicited requirements were structured into four main categories, namely, requirements concerning the capabilities, functionality and usability of the apps, as well as compatibility requirements with respect to other apps and services. The main categories were then further divided into nine sub-categories. This classification, along with its content, aims to become a useful tool for the researcher or the developer who is involved in the development of digital services for BVI.

Keywords: Accessibility, assistive mobile apps, blind and visually impaired people, user requirements analysis.

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Authors: Anselm L. Schüle, Thomas Rollmann, Reiner Anderl

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Within the collaborative research center 666 a new product development approach and the innovative manufacturing method of linear flow splitting are being developed. So far the design process is supported by 3D-CAD models utilizing User Defined Features in standard CAD-Systems. This paper now presents new functions for generating 3D-models of integral sheet metal products with bifurcations using Siemens PLM NX 6. The emphasis is placed on design and semi-automated insertion of User Defined Features. Therefore User Defined Features for both, linear flow splitting and its derivative linear bend splitting, were developed. In order to facilitate the modeling process, an application was developed that guides through the insertion process. Its usability and dialog layout adapt known standard features. The work presented here has significant implications on the quality, accurateness and efficiency of the product generation process of sheet metal products with higher order bifurcations.

Keywords: Linear Flow Splitting, CRC 666, User Defined Features.

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Authors: Boguslaw Schreyer

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The paper investigates the application of the Kohonen’s Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to the wheeled robot starting and braking dynamic states. In securing wheeled robot stability as well as minimum starting and braking time, it is important to ensure correct torque distribution as well as proper slope of braking and driving moments. In this paper, a correct movement distribution has been formulated, securing optimum adhesion coefficient and good transversal stability of a wheeled robot. A neural tuner has been proposed to secure the above properties, although most of the attention is attached to the SOM network application. If the delay of the torque application or torque release is not negligible, it is important to change the rising and falling slopes of the torque. The road/surface condition is also paramount in robot dynamic states control. As the road conditions may randomly change in time, application of the SOM network has been suggested in order to classify the actual road conditions.

Keywords: SOM network, torque distribution, torque slope, wheeled robots.

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Authors: Shreyash Sinai Kunde, Siddhang Tendulkar, Shiv Prakash Gupta, Gaurav Kumar, Suresh Mikkili

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One of the major power quality concerns in modern times is the problem of current harmonics. The current harmonics is caused due to the increase in non-linear loads which is largely dominated by power electronics devices. The Shunt active filtering is one of the best solutions for mitigating current harmonics. This paper describes a fuzzy logic controller based (FLC) based three Phase Shunt active Filter to achieve low current harmonic distortion (THD) and Reactive power compensation. The performance of fuzzy logic controller is analysed under both balanced sinusoidal and unbalanced sinusoidal source condition. The above controller serves the purpose of maintaining DC Capacitor Voltage constant. The proposed shunt active filter uses hysteresis current controller for current control of IGBT based PWM inverter. The simulation results of model in Simulink MATLAB reveals satisfying results.

Keywords: Shunt active filter, Current harmonics, Fuzzy logic controller, Hysteresis current controller.

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Authors: Guneet Mander, Gurinder Pal Singh

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Moisture is an important consideration in many aspects ranging from irrigation, soil chemistry, golf course, corrosion and erosion, road conditions, weather predictions, livestock feed moisture levels, water seepage etc. Vegetation and crops always depend more on the moisture available at the root level than on precipitation occurrence. In this paper, design of an instrument is discussed which tells about the variation in the moisture contents of soil. This is done by measuring the amount of water content in soil by finding the variation in capacitance of soil with the help of a capacitive sensor. The greatest advantage of soil moisture sensor is reduced water consumption. The sensor is also be used to set lower and upper threshold to maintain optimum soil moisture saturation and minimize water wilting, contributes to deeper plant root growth ,reduced soil run off /leaching and less favorable condition for insects and fungal diseases. Capacitance method is preferred because, it provides absolute amount of water content and also measures water content at any depth.

Keywords: Capacitive Sensors, aluminum, Water, Irrigation.

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Authors: C. S. Tsai, Yung-Chang Lin

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In order to upgrade the seismic resistibility of structures and enhance the functionality of an isolator, a new base isolator called the multiple trench friction pendulum system (MTFPS) is proposed in this study. The proposed MTFPS isolator is composed of a trench concave surface and several intermediate sliding plates in two orthogonal directions. Mathematical formulations have been derived to examine the characteristics of the proposed MTFPS isolator possessing multiple intermediate sliding plates. By means of mathematical formulations, it can be inferred that the natural period and damping effect of the MTFPS isolator with several intermediate sliding plates can be altered continually and controllably during earthquakes. Furthermore, results obtained from shaking table tests demonstrate that the proposed isolator provides good protection to structures for prevention of damage from strong earthquakes.

Keywords: Friction Pendulum System, Multiple Friction Pendulum System, Base Isolation, Earthquake Engineering

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Authors: A. Bahmanikashkouli, O.R. Bahadori Nezhad

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In this article, the phenomenon of nonlinear consolidation in saturated and homogeneous clay layer is studied. Considering time-varied drainage model, the excess pore water pressure in the layer depth is calculated. The Generalized Differential Quadrature (GDQ) method is used for the modeling and numerical analysis. For the purpose of analysis, first the domain of independent variables (i.e., time and clay layer depth) is discretized by the Chebyshev-Gauss-Lobatto series and then the nonlinear system of equations obtained from the GDQ method is solved by means of the Newton-Raphson approach. The obtained results indicate that the Generalized Differential Quadrature method, in addition to being simple to apply, enjoys a very high accuracy in the calculation of excess pore water pressure.

Keywords: Generalized Differential Quadrature method, Nonlinear consolidation, Nonlinear system of equations, Time-varied drainage

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Authors: Abiodun M. Aibinu, Momoh J. E. Salami, Amir A. Shafie, Athaur Rahman Najeeb

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In this paper, novel techniques in increasing the accuracy and speed of convergence of a Feed forward Back propagation Artificial Neural Network (FFBPNN) with polynomial activation function reported in literature is presented. These technique was subsequently used to determine the coefficients of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive (AR) system. The results obtained by introducing sequential and batch method of weight initialization, batch method of weight and coefficient update, adaptive momentum and learning rate technique gives more accurate result and significant reduction in convergence time when compared t the traditional method of back propagation algorithm, thereby making FFBPNN an appropriate technique for online ARMA coefficient determination.

Keywords: Adaptive Learning rate, Adaptive momentum, Autoregressive, Modeling, Neural Network.

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Authors: Leszek Chybowski, Artur Bejger, Katarzyna Gawdzińska

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Subversion analysis is a tool used in the TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) methodology. This article introduces the history and describes the process of subversion analysis, as well as function analysis and analysis of the resources, used at the design stage when generating possible undesirable situations. The article charts the course of subversion analysis when applied to a fuel injection nozzle of a marine engine. The work describes the fuel injector nozzle as a technological system and presents principles of analysis for the causes of a cracked tip of the nozzle body. The system is modelled with functional analysis. A search for potential causes of the damage is undertaken and a cause-and-effect analysis for various hypotheses concerning the damage is drawn up. The importance of particular hypotheses is evaluated and the most likely causes of damage identified.

Keywords: Complex technical system, fuel injector, function analysis, importance analysis, resource analysis, sabotage analysis, subversion analysis, TRIZ.

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Authors: Nour Aljafari, Mariam, S. Maani, Serter Atabay, Tarig Ali, Said Daker, Lara Daher, Hamad Bukhammas, Mohammed Abou Shakra

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This paper aims at determining the soil characteristics that influence the irrigation process of green landscapes and deciding on the optimum amount of water needed for irrigation. The laboratory experiments were conducted using the constant head methodology to determine the soil infiltration rates. The steady state infiltration rate was reached after 10 minutes of infiltration at a rate of 200 mm/hr. The effects of different water heads on infiltration rates were also investigated, and the head of 11 cm was found to be the optimum head for the test. The experimental results showed consistent infiltration results for the range between 11 cm and 15 cm. The study also involved finding the initial moisture content, which ranged between 5% and 25%, and finding the organic content, which occupied 1% to 2% of the soil. These results will be later utilized, using the water balance approach, to estimate the optimum amount of water needed for irrigation for changing weather conditions.

Keywords: Infiltration rate, moisture content, grass type, organic content.

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Authors: Mohd Herwan Sulaiman, Omar Aliman, Siti Rafidah Abdul Rahim

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This paper proposes a new methodology for the optimal allocation and sizing of Embedded Generation (EG) employing Real Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) to minimize the total power losses and to improve voltage profiles in the radial distribution networks. RCGA is a method that uses continuous floating numbers as representation which is different from conventional binary numbers. The RCGA is used as solution tool, which can determine the optimal location and size of EG in radial system simultaneously. This method is developed in MATLAB. The effect of EG units- installation and their sizing to the distribution networks are demonstrated using 24 bus system.

Keywords: Embedded generation (EG), load flow study, optimal allocation, real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA).

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

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Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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Authors: Hamed Rafiei, Masoud Rabbani

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This paper deals with the project selection problem. Project selection problem is one of the problems arose firstly in the field of operations research following some production concepts from primary product mix problem. Afterward, introduction of managerial considerations into the project selection problem have emerged qualitative factors and criteria to be regarded as well as quantitative ones. To overcome both kinds of criteria, an analytic network process is developed in this paper enhanced with fuzzy sets theory to tackle the vagueness of experts- comments to evaluate the alternatives. Additionally, a modified version of Least-Square method through a non-linear programming model is augmented to the developed group decision making structure in order to elicit the final weights from comparison matrices. Finally, a case study is considered by which developed structure in this paper is validated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the response of the model with respect to the condition alteration.

Keywords: Analytic network process, Fuzzy sets theory, Nonlinear programming, Project selection.

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Authors: Hamid Tavakolipour, Mohsen Mokhtarian, Ahmad Kalbasi Ashtari

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In this study, the effect of various drying methods (sun drying, shade drying and industrial drying) on final moisture content, shell splitting degree, shrinkage and color change were studied. Sun drying resulted higher degree of pistachio nuts shell splitting on pistachio nuts relative other drying methods. The ANOVA results showed that the different drying methods did not significantly effects on color change of dried pistachio nut. The results illustrated that pistachio nut dried by industrial drying had the lowest moisture content. After the end of drying process, initially, the experimental drying data were fitted with five famous drying models namely Newton, Page, Silva et al., Peleg and Henderson and Pabis. The results indicated that Peleg and Page models gave better results compared with other models to monitor the moisture ratio’s pistachio nut in industrial drying and open sun (or shade drying) methods, respectively.

Keywords: Industrial drying, Modeling, Pistachio, quality properties, Traditional drying.

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Authors: Shaneil Taylor

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Gender-based violence is a reflection of the inequalities that are associated within a society between the men and women that affects the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims. There are various determinants that contribute to the health risk of young women who have experienced sexual violence, in countries that have a high prevalence rate for HIV. For instance, in South Africa, where the highest prevalence rate for HIV is among young women, their susceptibility to the virus has been increased by sexual violence and cultural inequalities. Therefore, this study is a review of literature that explores how gender-based violence increases the possibility for HIV/AIDS among young women in South Africa.

Keywords: Gender based violence, HIV/AIDS transmission, young women, Risky sexual behavior.

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Authors: Anant Oonsivilai, Kenedy A. Greyson

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The growth and interconnection of power networks in many regions has invited complicated techniques for energy management services (EMS). State estimation techniques become a powerful tool in power system control centers, and that more information is required to achieve the objective of EMS. For the online state estimator, assuming the continuous time is equidistantly sampled with period Δt, processing events must be finished within this period. Advantage of Kalman Filtering (KF) algorithm in using system information to improve the estimation precision is utilized. Computational power is a major issue responsible for the achievement of the objective, i.e. estimators- solution at a small sampled period. This paper presents the optimum utilization of processors in a state estimator based on KF. The model used is presented using Petri net (PN) theory.

Keywords: Kalman filters, model, Petri Net, power system, sequential State estimator.

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Authors: Shweta Kumari, Parmjit S. Panesar, Manab B. Bera

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The hydrolysis of lactose using β-galactosidase is one of the most promising biotechnological applications, which has wide range of potential applications in food processing industries. However, due to intracellular location of the yeast enzyme, and expensive extraction methods, the industrial applications of enzymatic hydrolysis processes are being hampered. The use of permeabilization technique can help to overcome the problems associated with enzyme extraction and purification of yeast cells and to develop the economically viable process for the utilization of whole cell biocatalysts in food industries. In the present investigation, standardization of permeabilization process of novel yeast isolate was carried out using a statistical model approach known as Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to achieve maximal b-galactosidase activity. The optimum operating conditions for permeabilization process for optimal β-galactosidase activity obtained by RSM were 1:1 ratio of toluene (25%, v/v) and ethanol (50%, v/v), 25.0 ^oC temperature and treatment time of 12 min, which displayed enzyme activity of 1.71 IU /mg DW.

Keywords: β-galactosidase, optimization, permeabilization, response surface methodology, yeast.

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Authors: Mahdi Sadeghian, Mahmoud Hassanlourad, Alireza Ardakani, Reza Dinarvand

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In this research, the behavior of monopiles, under lateral loads, was investigated with vertical and oblique piles by Finite Element Method. In engineering practice when soil-pile interaction comes to the picture some simplifications are applied to reduce the design time. As a simplified replacement of soil and pile interaction analysis, pile could be replaced by a column. The height of the column would be equal to the free length of the pile plus a portion of the embedded length of it. One of the important factors studied in this study was that columns with an equivalent length (free length plus a part of buried depth) could be used instead of soil and pile modeling. The results of the analysis show that the more internal friction angle of the soil increases, the more the bearing capacity of the soil is achieved. This additional length is 6 to 11 times of the pile diameter in dense soil although in loose sandy soil this range might increase.

Keywords: Lateral bearing capacity, pile group, oblique pile, soil-structure interaction, depth of fixity.

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Tiwari

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The paper demonstrates a methodology that can be used at an early design stage of any conventional aircraft. This research activity assesses the feasibility derivation of methodology for aircraft loads estimation during the various phases of design for a transport category aircraft by utilizing potential of using commercial finite element analysis software, which may drive significant time saving. Early Design phase have limited data and quick changing configuration results in handling of large number of load cases. It is useful to idealize the aircraft as a connection of beams, which can be very accurately modelled using finite element analysis (beam elements). This research explores the correct approach towards idealizing an aircraft using beam elements. FEM Techniques like inertia relief were studied for implementation during course of work. The correct boundary condition technique envisaged for generation of shear force, bending moment and torque diagrams for the aircraft. The possible applications of this approach are the aircraft design process, which have been investigated.

Keywords: Multi-disciplinary optimization, aircraft load, finite element analysis, Stick Model.

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Authors: Hanaa Farouk Saleh

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The main purposes of this study are to develop a scale that reflects emerging theoretical understandings of new media credibility, based on the evolution of credibility studies in western researches, identification of the determinants of credibility in the media and its components by comparing traditional and new media credibility scales and building accumulative scale to test new media credibility. This approach was built on western researches using conceptualizations of media credibility, which focuses on four principal components: Source (journalist), message (article), medium (newspaper, radio, TV, web, etc.), and organization (owner of the medium), and adding user and cultural context as key components to assess new media credibility in particular. This study’s value lies in its contribution to the conceptualization and development of new media credibility through the creation of a theoretical measurement tool. Future studies should explore this scale to test new media credibility, which represents a promising new approach in the efforts to define and measure credibility of all media types.

Keywords: Credibility scale, media credibility components, new media credibility scale, scale development.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

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Dengue virus is transmitted from person to person through the biting of infected Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3 and DEN-4 are four serotypes of this virus. Infection with one of these four serotypes apparently produces permanent immunity to it, but only temporary cross immunity to the others. The length of time during incubation of dengue virus in human and mosquito are considered in this study. The dengue patients are classified into infected and infectious classes. The infectious human can transmit dengue virus to susceptible mosquitoes but infected human can not. The transmission model of this disease is formulated. The human population is divided into susceptible, infected, infectious and recovered classes. The mosquito population is separated into susceptible, infected and infectious classes. Only infectious mosquitoes can transmit dengue virus to the susceptible human. We analyze this model by using dynamical analysis method. The threshold condition is discussed to reduce the outbreak of this disease.

Keywords: Transmission model, intrinsic incubation period, extrinsic incubation period, basic reproductive number, equilibriumstates, local stability.

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Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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