Search results for: decision feedback detector

Authors: Erdal Akyol, Mutlu Alkan, Ali Aydin

Abstract:

Multi criteria decision analysis (MDCA) covers both data and experience. It is very common to solve the problems with many parameters and uncertainties. GIS supported solutions improve and speed up the decision process. Weighted grading as a MDCA method is employed for solving the geotechnical problems. In this study, geotechnical parameters namely soil type; SPT (N) blow number, shear wave velocity (Vs) and depth of underground water level (DUWL) have been engaged in MDCA and GIS. In terms of geotechnical aspects, the settlement suitability of the municipal area was analyzed by the method. MDCA results were compatible with the geotechnical observations and experience. The method can be employed in geotechnical oriented microzoning studies if the criteria are well evaluated.

Keywords: GIS, spatial analysis, multi criteria decision analysis, geotechnics.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, composite programming is discussed for aircraft evaluation and selection problem using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The decision criteria and aircraft alternatives were identified from the literature review. The importance of criteria weights was determined by the standard deviation method. The proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft. The proposed technique gives robust and efficient results in modeling multiple criteria decisions. As a result of composite programming analysis, Hürjet, an advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft alternative (a3), was chosen as the most suitable aircraft candidate.  

Keywords: composite programming, additive weighted model, multiplicative weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, aircraft selection, advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft, M-346, FA-50, Hürjet

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

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This paper features the modeling and design of a Robust Decentralized Fast Output Sampling (RDFOS) Feedback control technique for the active vibration control of a smart flexible multimodel Euler-Bernoulli cantilever beams for a multivariable (MIMO) case by retaining the first 6 vibratory modes. The beam structure is modeled in state space form using the concept of piezoelectric theory, the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and the Finite Element Method (FEM) technique by dividing the beam into 4 finite elements and placing the piezoelectric sensor / actuator at two finite element locations (positions 2 and 4) as collocated pairs, i.e., as surface mounted sensor / actuator, thus giving rise to a multivariable model of the smart structure plant with two inputs and two outputs. Five such multivariable models are obtained by varying the dimensions (aspect ratios) of the aluminium beam. Using model order reduction technique, the reduced order model of the higher order system is obtained based on dominant Eigen value retention and the Davison technique. RDFOS feedback controllers are designed for the above 5 multivariable-multimodel plant. The closed loop responses with the RDFOS feedback gain and the magnitudes of the control input are obtained and the performance of the proposed multimodel smart structure system is evaluated for vibration control.

Keywords: Smart structure, Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, Fastoutput sampling feedback control, Finite Element Method, Statespace model, Vibration control, LMI, Model order Reduction.

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Authors: Thomas Bryan, Veton Kepuska, Ivica Kostanic

Abstract:

A simple adaptive voice activity detector (VAD) is implemented using Gabor and gammatone atomic decomposition of speech for high Gaussian noise environments. Matching pursuit is used for atomic decomposition, and is shown to achieve optimal speech detection capability at high data compression rates for low signal to noise ratios. The most active dictionary elements found by matching pursuit are used for the signal reconstruction so that the algorithm adapts to the individual speakers dominant time-frequency characteristics. Speech has a high peak to average ratio enabling matching pursuit greedy heuristic of highest inner products to isolate high energy speech components in high noise environments. Gabor and gammatone atoms are both investigated with identical logarithmically spaced center frequencies, and similar bandwidths. The algorithm performs equally well for both Gabor and gammatone atoms with no significant statistical differences. The algorithm achieves 70% accuracy at a 0 dB SNR, 90% accuracy at a 5 dB SNR and 98% accuracy at a 20dB SNR using 30d B SNR as a reference for voice activity.

Keywords: Atomic Decomposition, Gabor, Gammatone, Matching Pursuit, Voice Activity Detection.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Aircraft supplier selection process, which is considered as a fundamental supply chain problem, is a multi-criteria group decision problem that has a significant impact on the performance of the entire supply chain. In practical situations are frequently incomplete and uncertain information, making it difficult for decision-makers to communicate their opinions on candidates with precise and definite values. To solve the aircraft supplier selection problem in an environment of incomplete and uncertain information, proximity measure method is proposed. It uses determinate fuzzy numbers. The weights of each decision maker are equally predetermined and the entropic criteria weights are calculated using each decision maker's decision matrix. Additionally, determinate fuzzy numbers, it is proposed to use the weighted normalized Minkowski distance function and Hausdorff distance function to determine the ranking order patterns of alternatives. A numerical example for aircraft supplier selection is provided to further demonstrate the applicability, effectiveness, validity and rationality of the proposed method.

Keywords: Aircraft supplier selection, multiple criteria decision making, fuzzy sets, determinate fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy sets, proximity measure method, Minkowski distance function, Hausdorff distance function, PMM, MCDM

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Authors: Hichem Omrani, Philippe Gerber, Patrick Bousch

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The problem of Small Area Estimation (SAE) is complex because of various information sources and insufficient data. In this paper, an approach for SAE is presented for decision-making at national, regional and local level. We propose an Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) as an estimator in order to combine several information sources to evaluate various indicators. First, we present the urban audit project and its environmental, social and economic indicators. Secondly, we propose an approach for decision making in order to estimate indicators. An application is used to validate the theoretical proposal. Finally, a decision support system is presented based on open-source environment.

Keywords: Small area estimation, statistical method, sampling, empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP), decision-making.

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Authors: Mohsen Pirdashti, Arezou Ghadi, Mehrdad Mohammadi, Gholamreza Shojatalab

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Chemical industry project management involves complex decision making situations that require discerning abilities and methods to make sound decisions. Project managers are faced with decision environments and problems in projects that are complex. In this work, case study is Research and Development (R&D) project selection. R&D is an ongoing process for forward thinking technology-based chemical industries. R&D project selection is an important task for organizations with R&D project management. It is a multi-criteria problem which includes both tangible and intangible factors. The ability to make sound decisions is very important to success of R&D projects. Multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches are major parts of decision theory and analysis. This paper presents all of MCDM approaches for use in R&D project selection. It is hoped that this work will provide a ready reference on MCDM and this will encourage the application of the MCDM by chemical engineering management.

Keywords: Chemical Engineering, R&D Project, MCDM, Selection.

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Authors: Mikel Alonso López

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This paper explores, in depth, the idea that emotions are present in all consumer decision making processes, meaning that purchase decisions have never been purely cognitive or as they traditionally have been defined, rational. Human beings, in all kinds of decisions, has "always" used neural systems related to emotions along with neural systems related to cognition, regardless of the type of purchase or the product or service in question. Therefore, all purchase decisions are, at the same time, cognitive and emotional. This paper presents an analysis of the main contributions of researchers in this regard.

Keywords: Emotions, decision making, consumer behavior.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiple criteria evaluation analysis for airline quality rating using the preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS) and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) approaches. The airline quality rating was developed as an objective method for assessing airline quality on combined multiple performance criteria and the importance weights of criteria. The selected multiple performance criteria were determined as on-time arrivals, mishandled baggage, involuntary denied boardings, and consumer complaints. The multiple criteria decision making analysis results show that the alternative ( a2) airline is the best-rated airline.

Keywords: airline quality rating, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS, TOPSIS

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Authors: E. Bruno, F. Lacarbonara, M. C. Placentino, D. Gramegna

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Environmental decision making, particularly about hazardous waste management, is inherently exposed to a high potential conflict, principally because of the trade-off between sociopolitical, environmental, health and economic factors. The need to plan complex contexts has led to an increasing request for decision analytic techniques as support for the decision process. In this work, alternative systems of asbestos-containing waste management (ACW) in Puglia (Southern Italy) were explored by a multi-criteria decision analysis. In particular, through Analytic Hierarchy Process five alternatives management have been compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency, taking into account environmental, health and socio-economic aspects. A separated valuation has been performed for different temporal scale. For short period results showed a narrow deviation between the disposal alternatives “mono-material landfill in public quarry" and “dedicate cells in existing landfill", with the best performance of the first one. While for long period “treatment plant to eliminate hazard from asbestos-containing waste" was prevalent, although high energy demand required to achieve the change of crystalline structure. A comparison with results from a participative approach in valuation process might be considered as future development of method application to ACW management.

Keywords: Multi-criteria decision analysis, Hazardous wastemanagement, Asbestos.

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Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

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We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid homoeostatic mechanism in endocrine system. We introduce to this system two types of couplings and delay. In our model, feedback controls the secretion of thyroid hormones and delay reflects time lags required for transportation of the hormones. The influence of delayed feedback on the stability behaviour of the system is discussed. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. This system of equations describes normal activity of the thyroid and also a couple of types of malfunctions (e.g. hyperthyroidism).

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, ordinary differential equations, endocrine system, stability analysis.

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Authors: Aseela Alhinaai, Suliman Abdullah, Adil Albusaidi

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Knowledge has been considered an important asset in private and public organizations. It is utilized in the libraries sector to run different operations of technical services and administrative works. This study aims to identify the impact of the knowledge-sharing factors (technology, collaboration, management support) to improve decision-making at Sultan Qaboos University Libraries. This study conducted a quantitative method using a questionnaire instrument to measure the impact of technology, collaboration, and management support on knowledge sharing that lead to improved decision-making. The study population is the Sultan Qaboos University (SQU) libraries (Main Library, Medical Library, College of Economic and Political Science Library, and Art Library). The results showed that management support, collaboration, and technology use have a positive impact on the knowledge-sharing process, and knowledge sharing positively affects decision making process.

Keywords: Knowledge sharing, decision making, information technology, management support, corroboration, Sultan Qaboos University.

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Authors: Ilyes Jenhani, Salem Benferhat, Zied Elouedi

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This paper investigates the issue of building decision trees from data with imprecise class values where imprecision is encoded in the form of possibility distributions. The Information Affinity similarity measure is introduced into the well-known gain ratio criterion in order to assess the homogeneity of a set of possibility distributions representing instances-s classes belonging to a given training partition. For the experimental study, we proposed an information affinity based performance criterion which we have used in order to show the performance of the approach on well-known benchmarks.

Keywords: Data mining from uncertain data, Decision Trees, Possibility Theory.

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Authors: R. Ferdous

Abstract:

Power, responsibility sharing, and democratic decision-making are the central ethos to co-management. It is assumed that involving local community in the decision-making process can create a sense of ownership and responsibility of that community and motivate the community towards collective action. But this paper demonstrated that the process to involve local community is not simple and straightforward as it is influenced by structural aspects, power relations among the actors, and social embedded institutions. These factors shape the process in that way who will participate, how they will participate and how the local community maneuvers their agency in the decision-making process. To grasp the complexities that materialize in the process of participation and to understand the inclusionary and exclusionary nature of participation, this paper examines the subjective understanding of different stakeholders concerning participation and furthermore observes the enabling or constraining factors that affect the community to exercise their agency.

Keywords: Participation, social embeddedness, power, structure.

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Authors: Guilherme Ribeiro, Alexandre Oliveira, Antonio Ferreira, Shyam Visweswaran, Gregory Cooper

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Patient-specific models are instance-based learning algorithms that take advantage of the particular features of the patient case at hand to predict an outcome. We introduce two patient-specific algorithms based on decision tree paradigm that use AUC as a metric to select an attribute. We apply the patient specific algorithms to predict outcomes in several datasets, including medical datasets. Compared to the patient-specific decision path (PSDP) entropy-based and CART methods, the AUC-based patient-specific decision path models performed equivalently on area under the ROC curve (AUC). Our results provide support for patient-specific methods being a promising approach for making clinical predictions.

Keywords: Approach instance-based, area Under the ROC Curve, Patient-specific Decision Path, clinical predictions.

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Authors: José M. Merigó, Pilar López-Jurado, M.Carmen Gracia, Montserrat Casanovas

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We present a method for the selection of students in interdisciplinary studies based on the hybrid averaging operator. We assume that the available information given in the problem is uncertain so it is necessary to use interval numbers. Therefore, we suggest a new type of hybrid aggregation called uncertain induced generalized hybrid averaging (UIGHA) operator. It is an aggregation operator that considers the weighted average (WA) and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the same formulation. Therefore, we are able to consider the degree of optimism of the decision maker and grades of importance in the same approach. By using interval numbers, we are able to represent the information considering the best and worst possible results so the decision maker gets a more complete view of the decision problem. We develop an illustrative example of the proposed scheme in the selection of students in interdisciplinary studies. We see that with the use of the UIGHA operator we get a more complete representation of the selection problem. Then, the decision maker is able to consider a wide range of alternatives depending on his interests. We also show other potential applications that could be used by using the UIGHA operator in educational problems about selection of different types of resources such as students, professors, etc.

Keywords: Decision making, Selection of students, Uncertainty, Aggregation operators.

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Authors: Djamila Benhaddouche, Abdelkader Benyettou

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In this paper, we used data mining to extract biomedical knowledge. In general, complex biomedical data collected in studies of populations are treated by statistical methods, although they are robust, they are not sufficient in themselves to harness the potential wealth of data. For that you used in step two learning algorithms: the Decision Trees and Support Vector Machine (SVM). These supervised classification methods are used to make the diagnosis of thyroid disease. In this context, we propose to promote the study and use of symbolic data mining techniques.

Keywords: A classifier, Algorithms decision tree, knowledge extraction, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Ferenc Peter Pach, Janos Abonyi

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the data-driven generation of fuzzy IF...THEN rules. The resulted fuzzy rule base can be applied to build a classifier, a model used for prediction, or it can be applied to form a decision support system. Among the wide range of possible approaches, the decision tree and the association rule based algorithms are overviewed, and two new approaches are presented based on the a priori fuzzy clustering based partitioning of the continuous input variables. An application study is also presented, where the developed methods are tested on the well known Wisconsin Breast Cancer classification problem.

Keywords:

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Authors: Thuy Thi Nguyen, Nguyen Dang Binh, Horst Bischof

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In this work, we present a novel active learning approach for learning a visual object detection system. Our system is composed of an active learning mechanism as wrapper around a sub-algorithm which implement an online boosting-based learning object detector. In the core is a combination of a bootstrap procedure and a semi automatic learning process based on the online boosting procedure. The idea is to exploit the availability of classifier during learning to automatically label training samples and increasingly improves the classifier. This addresses the issue of reducing labeling effort meanwhile obtain better performance. In addition, we propose a verification process for further improvement of the classifier. The idea is to allow re-update on seen data during learning for stabilizing the detector. The main contribution of this empirical study is a demonstration that active learning based on an online boosting approach trained in this manner can achieve results comparable or even outperform a framework trained in conventional manner using much more labeling effort. Empirical experiments on challenging data set for specific object deteciton problems show the effectiveness of our approach.

Keywords: Computer vision, object detection, online boosting, active learning, labeling complexity.

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Authors: O. J. G. Somsen

Abstract:

One of the tasks of optical surveillance is to detect anomalies in large amounts of image data. However, if the size of the anomaly is very small, limited information is available to distinguish it from the surrounding environment. Spectral detection provides a useful source of additional information and may help to detect anomalies with a size of a few pixels or less. Unfortunately, spectral cameras are expensive because of the difficulty of separating two spatial in addition to one spectral dimension. We investigate the possibility of modifying a simple spectral line detector for outdoor detection. This may be especially useful if the area of interest forms a line, such as the horizon. We use a monochrome CCD that also enables detection into the near infrared. A simple camera is attached to the setup to determine which part of the environment is spectrally imaged. Our preliminary results indicate that sensitive detection of very small targets is indeed possible. Spectra could be taken from the various targets by averaging columns in the line image. By imaging a set of lines of various widths we found narrow lines that could not be seen in the color image but remained visible in the spectral line image. A simultaneous analysis of the entire spectra can produce better results than visual inspection of the line spectral image. We are presently developing calibration targets for spatial and spectral focusing and alignment with the spatial camera. This will present improved results and more use in outdoor application.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, spectroscopic line imaging, image analysis.

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Authors: T. C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

This paper deals with the design of a periodic output feedback controller for a flexible beam structure modeled with Timoshenko beam theory, Finite Element Method, State space methods and embedded piezoelectrics concept. The first 3 modes are considered in modeling the beam. The main objective of this work is to control the vibrations of the beam when subjected to an external force. Shear piezoelectric sensors and actuators are embedded into the top and bottom layers of a flexible aluminum beam structure, thus making it intelligent and self-adaptive. The composite beam is divided into 5 finite elements and the control actuator is placed at finite element position 1, whereas the sensor is varied from position 2 to 5, i.e., from the nearby fixed end to the free end. 4 state space SISO models are thus developed. Periodic Output Feedback (POF) Controllers are designed for the 4 SISO models of the same plant to control the flexural vibrations. The effect of placing the sensor at different locations on the beam is observed and the performance of the controller is evaluated for vibration control. Conclusions are finally drawn.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Periodic output feedback control, Finite Element Method, State space model, SISO, Embedded sensors and actuators, Vibration control.

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Authors: Jean Berger, Nassirou Lo, Martin Noel

Abstract:

Perfectly suited for natural or man-made emergency and disaster management situations such as flood, earthquakes, tornadoes, or tsunami, multi-target search path planning for a team of rescue agents is known to be computationally hard, and most techniques developed so far come short to successfully estimate optimality gap. A novel mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) formulation is proposed to optimally solve the multi-target multi-agent discrete search and rescue (SAR) path planning problem. Aimed at maximizing cumulative probability of successful target detection, it captures anticipated feedback information associated with possible observation outcomes resulting from projected path execution, while modeling agent discrete actions over all possible moving directions. Problem modeling further takes advantage of network representation to encompass decision variables, expedite compact constraint specification, and lead to substantial problem-solving speed-up. The proposed MIP approach uses CPLEX optimization machinery, efficiently computing near-optimal solutions for practical size problems, while giving a robust upper bound obtained from Lagrangean integrality constraint relaxation. Should eventually a target be positively detected during plan execution, a new problem instance would simply be reformulated from the current state, and then solved over the next decision cycle. A computational experiment shows the feasibility and the value of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Search path planning, search and rescue, multi-agent, mixed-integer linear programming, optimization.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this research, a multidimensional  compromise optimization method is proposed for multidimensional decision making analysis in the development ranking of the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Turkey. The proposed approach presents ranking solutions resulting from different multicriteria decision analyses, which yield different ranking orders for the same ranking problem, consisting of a set of alternatives in terms of numerous competing criteria when they are applied with the same numerical data. The multiobjective optimization decision making problem is considered in three sequential steps. In the first step, five different criteria related to the development ranking are gathered from the research field. In the second step, identified evaluation criteria are, objectively, weighted using standard deviation procedure. In the third step, a country selection problem is illustrated with a numerical example as an application of the proposed multidimensional  compromise optimization model. Finally, multidimensional  compromise optimization approach is applied to rank the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Turkey. 

Keywords: Standard deviation, performance evaluation, multicriteria decision making, multidimensional compromise optimization, vector normalization, multicriteria decision making, multicriteria analysis, multidimensional decision analysis.

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

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This paper investigates the problem of designing a robust state-feedback controller for a class of uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems that guarantees the L2-gain from an exogenous input to a regulated output is less than or equal to a prescribed value. First, we approximate this class of uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems by a class of uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models with Markovian jumps. Then, based on an LMI approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain Markovian jump nonlinear systems to have an H performance are derived. An illustrative example is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed design techniques.

Keywords: Robust H, Fuzzy Control, Markovian Jump Systems, LMI.

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Authors: Seongmin Yim, Hyun-Kyu Kang

Abstract:

As a part of evaluation system for R&D program, the Korean government has applied feasibility analysis since 2008. Various professionals put forth a great effort in order to catch up the high degree of freedom of R&D programs, and make contributions to evolving the feasibility analysis. We analyze diverse R&D programs from various viewpoints, such as technology, policy, and Economics, integrate the separate analysis, and finally arrive at a definite result; whether a program is feasible or unfeasible. This paper describes the concept and method of the feasibility analysis as a decision making tool. The analysis unit and content of each criterion, which are key elements in a comprehensive decision making structure, are examined

Keywords: Decision Making of New Government R&D Program, Feasibility Analysis Study

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Authors: Hemashree Bordoloi, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma

Abstract:

Rotation or tilt present in an image capture by digital means can be detected and corrected using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for application with a Face Recognition System (FRS). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) features of faces at different angles are used to train an ANN which detects the rotation for an input image and corrected using a set of operations implemented using another system based on ANN. The work also deals with the recognition of human faces with features from the foreheads, eyes, nose and mouths as decision support entities of the system configured using a Generalized Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (GFFANN). These features are combined to provide a reinforced decision for verification of a person-s identity despite illumination variations. The complete system performing facial image rotation detection, correction and recognition using re-enforced decision support provides a success rate in the higher 90s.

Keywords: Rotation, Face, Recognition, ANN.

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Authors: Nisha Singhal, Usha Chouhan

Abstract:

At present, application of the extension of soft set theory in decision making problems in day to day life is progressing rapidly. The concepts of fuzzy soft set and its properties have been evolved as an area of interest for the researchers. The generalization of the concepts recently got importance and a rapid growth in the research in this area witnessed its vital-ness. In this paper, an application of the concept of generalized fuzzy soft set to make decision in a social problem is presented. Further, this paper also highlights some of the key issues of the related areas.

Keywords: Soft set, Fuzzy Soft set, Generalized Fuzzy Soft set, Membership and Non-Membership Score.

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Authors: Ying Zhao

Abstract:

Keystroke authentication is a new access control system to identify legitimate users via their typing behavior. In this paper, machine learning techniques are adapted for keystroke authentication. Seven learning methods are used to build models to differentiate user keystroke patterns. The selected classification methods are Decision Tree, Naive Bayesian, Instance Based Learning, Decision Table, One Rule, Random Tree and K-star. Among these methods, three of them are studied in more details. The results show that machine learning is a feasible alternative for keystroke authentication. Compared to the conventional Nearest Neighbour method in the recent research, learning methods especially Decision Tree can be more accurate. In addition, the experiment results reveal that 3-Grams is more accurate than 2-Grams and 4-Grams for feature extraction. Also, combination of attributes tend to result higher accuracy.

Keywords: Keystroke Authentication, Pattern recognition, MachineLearning, Instance-based Learning, Bayesian, Decision Tree.

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Authors: Jaeho Han, Moonjung Kim, Won-Ho Kim, Chang-Ho Hyun

Abstract:

This paper introduces a high-gain observer based state of charge(SOC) estimator for lithium-Ion batteries. The proposed SOC estimator has a high-gain observer(HGO) structure. The HGO scheme enhances the transient response speed and diminishes the effect of uncertainties. Furthermore, it guarantees that the output feedback controller recovers the performance of the state feedback controller when the observer gain is sufficiently high. In order to show the effectiveness of the proposed method, the linear RC battery model in ADVISOR is used. The performance of the proposed method is compared with that of the conventional linear observer(CLO) and some simulation result is given.

Keywords: SOC, high-gain, observer, uncertainties, robust

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Authors: J. Trarbach, S. Schosser, B. Vogt

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Decision-makers tend to prefer the first alternative over subsequent alternatives which is called the primacy effect. To reliably measure this effect, we conducted an experiment with real consequences for preference statements. Therefore, we elicit preferences of subjects using a rating scale, i.e. hypothetical preferences, and willingness to pay, i.e. real preferences, for two sequences of pain. Within these sequences, both overall intensity and duration of pain are identical. Hence, a rational decision-maker should be indifferent, whereas the primacy effect predicts a stronger preference for the first sequence. What we see is a primacy effect only for hypothetical preferences. This effect vanishes for real preferences.

Keywords: Decision making, primacy effect, real incentives, willingness to pay.

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