Search results for: back propagation neural network model.

Authors: T. T. Ntshakala, S. D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Physical education (PE) is still neglected in schools despite its academic, social, psychological, and health benefits. Based on the assumption that Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) can contribute to the development of PE in schools, this study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of ICTs for PE in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of technology adoption theories and of ICT adoption factors for physical education. The technology adoption model that fitted to the best all ICT adoption factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. It was found that the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is the most adequate theoretical framework for the modeling of ICT adoption factors for physical education.

Keywords: Adoption factors, basic education, physical education, technology adoption theories.

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Authors: A. Suleng, T. Jelstad Olsen, J. Šindler, P. Bárta

Abstract:

A dead leg is a typical subsea production system component. CFD is required to model heat transfer within the dead leg. Unfortunately its solution is time demanding and thus not suitable for fast prediction or repeated simulations. Therefore there is a need to create a thermal FEA model, mimicking the heat flows and temperatures seen in CFD cool down simulations. This paper describes the conventional way of tuning and a new automated way using parametric model order reduction (PMOR) together with an optimization algorithm. The tuned FE analyses replicate the steady state CFD parameters within a maximum error in heat flow of 6 % and 3 % using manual and PMOR method respectively. During cool down, the relative error of the tuned FEA models with respect to temperature is below 5% comparing to the CFD. In addition, the PMOR method obtained the correct FEA setup five times faster than the manually tuned FEA.

Keywords: CFD, convective heat, FEA, model tuning, subseaproduction

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

Abstract:

Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.

Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.

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Authors: Yanling Zhu

Abstract:

In this paper, a predator-prey model with Holling III type functional response is studied. It is interesting that the system is always uniformly persistent, which yields the existence of at least one positive periodic solutions for the corresponding periodic system. The result improves the corresponding ones in [11]. Moreover, an example is illustrated to verify the results by simulation.

Keywords: Predator-prey model, Uniformly persistence, Comparisontheorem, Holling III type functional response.

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Authors: Lars Silver, Björn Berggren, Andreas Fili

Abstract:

The financial crisis has decreased the opportunities of small businesses to acquire financing through conventional financial actors, such as commercial banks. This credit constraint is partly the reason for the emergence of new alternatives of financing, in addition to the spreading opportunities for communication and secure financial transfer through Internet. One of the most interesting venues for finance is termed “crowdfunding". As the term suggests crowdfunding is an appeal to prospective customers and investors to form a crowd that will finance projects that otherwise would find it hard to generate support through the most common financial actors. Crowdfunding is in this paper divided into different models; the threshold model, the microfinance model, the micro loan model and the equity model. All these models add to the financial possibilities of emerging entrepreneurs.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, crowdfunding, equity finance, bank finance.

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Authors: Said Baadel

Abstract:

The belief of a heavenly God is enshrined to all Abrahamic religions which form the three major religions of the world today. Muslims believe in Allah who is above the seven heavens. The youth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) study Islamic courses as part of their high school curriculum and are required to take at least one Islamic course at the university level to gain credit hours towards their general education (GENED). This paper provides an insight of what the youth studying in the UAE think of where Allah is. Our analysis shows that a big number of Muslim youth were not sure, especially those from the Middle Eastern and Arab countries bringing to conclusion that this subject needs to be revisited again in the course work.

Keywords: Allah, Islam, Tawheed.

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Authors: Sourabh Agrawal, Ashok K. Jain

Abstract:

Stick models are widely used in studying the behaviour of straight as well as skew bridges and viaducts subjected to earthquakes while carrying out preliminary studies. The application of such models to highly curved bridges continues to pose challenging problems. A viaduct proposed in the foothills of the Himalayas in Northern India is chosen for the study. It is having 8 simply supported spans @ 30 m c/c. It is doubly curved in horizontal plane with 20 m radius. It is inclined in vertical plane as well. The superstructure consists of a box section. Three models have been used: a conventional stick model, an improved stick model and a 3D finite element model. The improved stick model is employed by making use of body constraints in order to study its capabilities. The first 8 frequencies are about 9.71% away in the latter two models. Later the difference increases to 80% in 50th mode. The viaduct was subjected to all three components of the El Centro earthquake of May 1940. The numerical integration was carried out using the Hilber- Hughes-Taylor method as implemented in SAP2000. Axial forces and moments in the bridge piers as well as lateral displacements at the bearing levels are compared for the three models. The maximum difference in the axial forces and bending moments and displacements vary by 25% between the improved and finite element model. Whereas, the maximum difference in the axial forces, moments, and displacements in various sections vary by 35% between the improved stick model and equivalent straight stick model. The difference for torsional moment was as high as 75%. It is concluded that the stick model with body constraints to model the bearings and expansion joints is not desirable in very sharp S curved viaducts even for preliminary analysis. This model can be used only to determine first 10 frequency and mode shapes but not for member forces. A 3D finite element analysis must be carried out for meaningful results.

Keywords: Bearing, body constraint, box girder, curved viaduct, expansion joint, finite element, link element, seismic, stick model, time history analysis.

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Authors: S. A. Naeini, A. Khalili

Abstract:

Nowadays, tunnels with different applications are developed, and most of them are related to subway tunnels. The excavation of shallow tunnels that pass under municipal utilities is very important, and the surface settlement control is an important factor in the design. The study sought to analyze the settlement and also to find an appropriate model in order to predict the behavior of the tunnel in Tehran subway line-3. The displacement in these sections is also determined by using numerical analyses and numerical modeling. In addition, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method is utilized by Hybrid training algorithm. The database pertinent to the optimum network was obtained from 46 subway tunnels in Iran and Turkey which have been constructed by the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM) with similar parameters based on type of their soil. The surface settlement was measured, and the acquired results were compared to the predicted values. The results disclosed that computing intelligence is a good substitute for numerical modeling.

Keywords: Settlement, subway line, FLAC3D, ANFIS method.

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Jian He

Abstract:

Heart disease is one of the leading causes of death in the world, and coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the major heart diseases. Electrocardiogram (ECG) is widely used in the detection of heart diseases, but the traditional manual method for CHD prediction by analyzing ECG requires lots of professional knowledge for doctors. This paper presents sliding window and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to transform ECG signals into images, and then ResNet and Bi-LSTM are introduced to build the ECG feature extraction network (namely ECGNet). At last, an auxiliary system for CHD prediction was developed based on modified ResNet18 and Bi-LSTM, and the public ECG dataset of CHD from MIMIC-3 was used to train and test the system. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the method is 83%, and the F1-score is 83%. Compared with the available methods for CHD prediction based on ECG, such as kNN, decision tree, VGGNet, etc., this method not only improves the prediction accuracy but also could avoid the degradation phenomenon of the deep learning network.

Keywords: Bi-LSTM, CHD, coronary heart disease, ECG, electrocardiogram, ResNet, sliding window.

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a numerical investigation on the rapid gas decompression in pure nitrogen which is made by using the one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) mathematical models of transient compressible non-isothermal fluid flow in pipes. A 1D transient mathematical model of compressible thermal multicomponent fluid mixture flow in pipes is presented. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved in the model. Thermo-physical properties of multicomponent gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. This model is successfully validated on the experimental data [1] and shows a good agreement with measurements. A 3D transient mathematical model of compressible thermal single-component gas flow in pipes, which is built by using the CFD Fluent code (ANSYS), is presented in the paper. The set of unsteady Reynolds-averaged conservation equations for gas phase is solved. Thermo-physical properties of single-component gas are calculated by solving the Real Gas Equation of State (EOS) model. The simplest case of gas decompression in pure nitrogen is simulated using both 1D and 3D models. The ability of both models to simulate the process of rapid decompression with a high order of agreement with each other is tested. Both, 1D and 3D numerical results show a good agreement between each other. The numerical investigation shows that 3D CFD model is very helpful in order to validate 1D simulation results if the experimental data is absent or limited.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Rapid Gas Decompression

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Authors: Naveen Chauhan, L.K. Awasthi, Narottam chand, Vivek Katiyar, Ankit Chug

Abstract:

Mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs) are a form of wireless networks which do not require a base station for providing network connectivity. Mobile ad-hoc networks have many characteristics which distinguish them from other wireless networks which make routing in such networks a challenging task. Cluster based routing is one of the routing schemes for MANETs in which various clusters of mobile nodes are formed with each cluster having its own clusterhead which is responsible for routing among clusters. In this paper we have proposed and implemented a distributed weighted clustering algorithm for MANETs. This approach is based on combined weight metric that takes into account several system parameters like the node degree, transmission range, energy and mobility of the nodes. We have evaluated the performance of proposed scheme through simulation in various network situations. Simulation results show that proposed scheme outperforms the original distributed weighted clustering algorithm (DWCA).

Keywords: MANETs, Clustering, Routing, WirelessCommunication, Distributed Clustering

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Authors: N. Kh. Gomidze, I. N. Jabnidze, K. A. Makharadze

Abstract:

The influence of inhomogeneities of plasma and statistical characteristics on the propagation of signal is very actual in wireless communication systems. While propagating in the media, the deformation and evaluation of the signal in time and space take place and on the receiver we get a deformed signal. The present article is dedicated to studying the space-time evolution of rectangular, sinusoidal, exponential and bi-exponential impulses via numerical experiment in the collisional, cold plasma. The presented method is not based on the Fourier-presentation of the signal. Analytically, we have received the general image depicting the space-time evolution of the radio impulse amplitude that gives an opportunity to analyze the concrete results in the case of primary impulse.

Keywords: Collisional, cold plasma, rectangular pulse signal, impulse envelope.

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Authors: A. Idawaty, O. Mohamed, A. Z. Zuriati

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an event based Discrete Event Simulation (DES) for a recovery algorithm known Backward Recovery Global Preemptive Utility Accrual Scheduling (BR_GPUAS). This algorithm implements the Backward Recovery (BR) mechanism as a fault recovery solution under the existing Time/Utility Function/ Utility Accrual (TUF/UA) scheduling domain for multiprocessor environment. The BR mechanism attempts to take the faulty tasks back to its initial safe state and then proceeds to re-execute the affected section of the faulty tasks to enable recovery. Considering that faults may occur in the components of any system; a fault tolerance system that can nullify the erroneous effect is necessary to be developed. Current TUF/UA scheduling algorithm uses the abortion recovery mechanism and it simply aborts the erroneous task as their fault recovery solution. None of the existing algorithm in TUF/UA scheduling domain in multiprocessor scheduling environment have considered the transient fault and implement the BR mechanism as a fault recovery mechanism to nullify the erroneous effect and solve the recovery problem in this domain. The developed BR_GPUAS simulator has derived the set of parameter, events and performance metrics according to a detailed analysis of the base model. Simulation results revealed that BR_GPUAS algorithm can saved almost 20-30% of the accumulated utilities making it reliable and efficient for the real-time application in the multiprocessor scheduling environment.

Keywords: Time Utility Function/ Utility Accrual (TUF/UA) scheduling, Real-time system (RTS), Backward Recovery, Multiprocessor, Discrete Event Simulation (DES).

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Authors: Minwoo Son, Seung-Hun Lee, Dongkyoo Shin, Dongil Shin

Abstract:

The next stage of the home networking environment is supposed to be ubiquitous, where each piece of material is equipped with an RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) tag. To fully support the ubiquitous environment, home networking middleware should be able to recommend home services based on a user-s interests and efficiently manage information on service usage profiles for the users. Therefore, USN (Ubiquitous Sensor Network) technology, which recognizes and manages a appliance-s state-information (location, capabilities, and so on) by connecting RFID tags is considered. The Intelligent Multi-Agent Middleware (IMAM) architecture was proposed to intelligently manage the mobile RFID-based home networking and to automatically supply information about home services that match a user-s interests. Evaluation results for personalization services for IMAM using Bayesian-Net and Decision Trees are presented.

Keywords: Intelligent Agents, Home Network, Mobile RFID, Intelligent Middleware.

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Authors: Ardeshir Karami Mohammadi

Abstract:

A Variable Structure Model Reference Adaptive Controller using state variables is proposed for a class of multi input-multi output systems. Adaptation law is of variable structure type and switching functions is designed based on stability requirements. Global exponential stability is proved based on Lyapunov criterion. Transient behavior is analyzed using sliding mode control and shows perfect model following at a finite time.

Keywords: Adaptive control, Model reference, Variablestructure, MIMO system.

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Authors: Hao Hsi Tseng

Abstract:

Taiwan’s infrastructure is gradually deteriorating, while resources for maintenance and replacement are increasingly limited, raising the urgent need for methods for maintaining existing infrastructure within constrained budgets. Infrastructure value evaluation is used to enhance the efficiency of infrastructure maintenance work, allowing administrators to quickly assess the maintenance needs and performance by observing variation in infrastructure value. This research establishes a value evaluation model for Taiwan’s highway box girder bridges. The operating mechanism and process of the model are illustrated in a practical case.

Keywords: Box girder bridge, deterioration, infrastructure, maintenance, value evaluation.

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Authors: Majid Mokhtarnia, Alireza Amini

Abstract:

Mobile operators deal with increasing in the data traffic as a critical issue. As a result, a vital responsibility of the operators is to deal with such a trend in order to create added values. This paper addresses a bundling method in a Canvas business model in a WiFi Data Offloading (WDO) strategy by which some elements of the model may be affected. In the proposed method, it is supposed to sell a number of data packages for subscribers in which there are some packages with a free given volume of data-offloaded WiFi complimentary. The paper on hands analyses this method in the views of attractiveness and profitability. The results demonstrate that the quality of implementation of the WDO strongly affects the final result and helps the decision maker to make the best one.

Keywords: Bundling, canvas business model, telecommunication, WiFi Data Offloading.

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Authors: Lili Sun, Hua Wang

Abstract:

As privacy becomes a major concern for consumers and enterprises, many research have been focused on the privacy protecting technology in recent years. In this paper, we present a comprehensive approach for usage access control based on the notion purpose. In our model, purpose information associated with a given data element specifies the intended use of the subjects and objects in the usage access control model. A key feature of our model is that it allows when an access is required, the access purpose is checked against the intended purposes for the data item. We propose an approach to represent purpose information to support access control based on purpose information. Our proposed solution relies on usage access control (UAC) models as well as the components which based on the notions of the purpose information used in subjects and objects. Finally, comparisons with related works are analyzed.

Keywords: Purpose, privacy, access control, authorization

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Authors: Lan Yang, Kathryn Cormican, Ming Yu

Abstract:

ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015, Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes is an international standard that provides generic top-level process descriptions to support systems engineering (SE). However, the processes defined in the standard needs improvement to lift integrity and consistency. The goal of this research is to explore the way by building an ontology model for the SE standard to manage the knowledge of SE. The ontology model gives a whole picture of the SE knowledge domain by building connections between SE concepts. Moreover, it creates a hierarchical classification of the concepts to fulfil different requirements of displaying and analysing SE knowledge.

Keywords: Knowledge management, model-based systems engineering, ontology modelling, systems engineering ontology.

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Authors: Sang Keun Rhee, Hyojeong Jin, Jihye Lee, Misoo Kwon, Myon-Woong Park, Sungdo Ha

Abstract:

Extensive information is required within a R&D environment, and a considerable amount of time and efforts are being spent on finding the necessary information. An adaptive information providing system would be beneficial to the environment, and a conceptual model of the resources, people and context is mandatory for developing such applications. In this paper, an information model on various contexts and resources is proposed which provides the possibility of effective applications for use in adaptive information systems within a R&D project and meeting environment.

Keywords: Adaptive Hypermedia, Adaptive System, ContextAwareness, Information Model, Information System, Personalisation.

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Authors: Kyoung-jae Kim

Abstract:

Recommender systems are usually regarded as an important marketing tool in the e-commerce. They use important information about users to facilitate accurate recommendation. The information includes user context such as location, time and interest for personalization of mobile users. We can easily collect information about location and time because mobile devices communicate with the base station of the service provider. However, information about user interest can-t be easily collected because user interest can not be captured automatically without user-s approval process. User interest usually represented as a need. In this study, we classify needs into two types according to prior research. This study investigates the usefulness of data mining techniques for classifying user need type for recommendation systems. We employ several data mining techniques including artificial neural networks, decision trees, case-based reasoning, and multivariate discriminant analysis. Experimental results show that CHAID algorithm outperforms other models for classifying user need type. This study performs McNemar test to examine the statistical significance of the differences of classification results. The results of McNemar test also show that CHAID performs better than the other models with statistical significance.

Keywords: Customer need type, Data mining techniques, Recommender system, Personalization, Mobile user.

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Authors: K. Elleuch, A. Chaari

Abstract:

This paper deals with modeling and parameter identification of nonlinear systems described by Hammerstein model having Piecewise nonlinear characteristics such as Dead-zone nonlinearity characteristic. The simultaneous use of both an easy decomposition technique and the triangular basis functions leads to a particular form of Hammerstein model. The approximation by using Triangular basis functions for the description of the static nonlinear block conducts to a linear regressor model, so that least squares techniques can be used for the parameter estimation. Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) technique has been applied to separate the coupled parameters. The proposed approach has been efficiently tested on academic examples of simulation.

Keywords: Identification, Hammerstein model, Piecewisenonlinear characteristic, Dead-zone nonlinearity, Triangular basisfunctions, Singular Values Decomposition

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Authors: Ulugbek Azimov, Eiji Tomita, Nobuyuki Kawahara, Sharul Sham Dol

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to investigate the combustion in a pilot-ignited supercharged dual-fuel engine, fueled with different types of gaseous fuels under various equivalence ratios. It is found that if certain operating conditions are maintained, conventional dual-fuel engine combustion mode can be transformed to the combustion mode with the two-stage heat release. This mode of combustion was called the PREMIER (PREmixed Mixture Ignition in the End-gas Region) combustion. During PREMIER combustion, initially, the combustion progresses as the premixed flame propagation and then, due to the mixture autoignition in the end-gas region, ahead of the propagating flame front, the transition occurs with the rapid increase in the heat release rate.

Keywords: Combustion, dual-fuel engine, end-gas autoignition, PREMIER.

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Authors: Hiren Mewada, Suprava Patnaik

Abstract:

Object identification and segmentation application requires extraction of object in foreground from the background. In this paper the Bhattacharya distance based probabilistic approach is utilized with an active contour model (ACM) to segment an object from the background. In the proposed approach, the Bhattacharya histogram is calculated on non-linear structure tensor space. Based on the histogram, new formulation of active contour model is proposed to segment images. The results are tested on both color and gray images from the Berkeley image database. The experimental results show that the proposed model is applicable to both color and gray images as well as both texture images and natural images. Again in comparing to the Bhattacharya based ACM in ICA space, the proposed model is able to segment multiple object too.

Keywords: Active Contour, Bhattacharya Histogram, Structure tensor, Image segmentation.

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Authors: M. Pushpalatha, Revathi Venkataraman, T. Ramarao

Abstract:

Trust and Energy consumption is the most challenging issue in routing protocol design for Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), since mobile nodes are battery powered and nodes behaviour are unpredictable. Furthermore replacing and recharging batteries and making nodes co-operative is often impossible in critical environments like military applications. In this paper, we propose a trust based energy aware routing model in MANET. During route discovery, node with more trust and maximum energy capacity is selected as a router based on a parameter called 'Reliability'. Route request from the source is accepted by a node only if its reliability is high. Otherwise, the route request is discarded. This approach forms a reliable route from source to destination thus increasing network life time, improving energy utilization and decreasing number of packet loss during transmission.

Keywords: Mobile Ad Hoc Networks, Trust, Energy, Reliability, AODV, TEA-AODV.

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Authors: W. K. Yap, V. Karri

Abstract:

This paper presents a hybrid electric scooter model developed and simulated using Matlab/Simulink. This hybrid scooter modeled has a parallel hybrid structure. The main propulsion units consist of a two stroke internal combustion engine and a hub motor attached to the front wheel of the scooter. The methodology used to optimize the energy and fuel consumption of the hybrid electric scooter is the multi-mode approach. Various case studies were presented to check the model and were compared to the literatures. Results shown that the model developed was feasible and valuable.

Keywords: Hybrid electric scooters, modeling and simulation, hybrid scooter energy management.

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a FitzHugh-Nagumo model with time delays is investigated. The linear stability of the equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation with delay τ is investigated. By applying Nyquist criterion, the length of delay is estimated for which stability continues to hold. Numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical results are illustrated. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: FitzHugh-Nagumo model, Time delay, Stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Biao Ma, Jikai Liu, Man Chen, Jianpeng Wu, Liyong Wang, Changsong Zheng

Abstract:

Proposing an appropriate control strategy is an effective and practical way to address the overheat problems of the wet multi-plate clutch in Direct Shift Gearbox under the long-time creeping condition. To do so, the temperature variation of the wet multi-plate clutch is investigated firstly by establishing a thermal resistance model for the gearbox cooling system. To calculate the generated heat flux and predict the clutch temperature precisely, the friction torque model is optimized by introducing an improved friction coefficient, which is related to the pressure, the relative speed and the temperature. After that, the heat transfer model and the reasonable friction torque model are employed by the vehicle powertrain model to construct a comprehensive co-simulation model for the Direct Shift Gearbox (DSG) vehicle. A creeping control strategy is then proposed and, to evaluate the vehicle performance, the safety temperature (250 ℃) is particularly adopted as an important metric. During the creeping process, the temperature of two clutches is always under the safety value (250 ℃), which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy in avoiding the thermal failures of clutches.

Keywords: Creeping control strategy, direct shift gearbox, temperature variation, wet clutch.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

Abstract:

Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

Abstract:

Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: Ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss.

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